July Bases

mrpickem said:
YTD [720-630 +22.32u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [14-16-2 -5.6u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Cincinnati Reds -102
  • 961 Miami Marlins +290
  • 964 Arizona Diamondbacks +138
  • 963 Milwaukee Brewers/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 -110
  • 965 Boston Red Sox -1½ -140
  • 965 Boston Red Sox -193
  • 965 Boston Red Sox/Baltimore Orioles Over 12½ -110
  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -110
  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays -250
  • 971 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians Over 11 +105
  • 972 Cleveland Indians -1½ -120
  • 972 Cleveland Indians -217
  • 973 Oakland Athletics/Minnesota Twins Over 10½ +100
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -135
  • 976 Houston Astros -139
  • 975 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Under 9 -105
  • 979 Colorado Rockies/New York Yankees Over 10½ +100
  • 980 New York Yankees -1½ -105
  • 980 New York Yankees -185
randoms...
Rox 0-14 RL this month
team = Rockies and season = 2019 and month = 7
SU:2-12 (-4.14, 14.3%) avg line: 103.6 / -116.5 on / against: -$1,299 / +$1,224 ROI: -74.3% / +67.3%
RL:0-14 (-4.57, 0.0%) avg line: 108.0 / -128.0 on / against: -$1,555 / +$1,475 ROI: -100.0% / +78.0%
OU:6-8-0 (0.50, 42.9%) avg total: 12.1 over / under: -$280 / +$145 ROI: -18.1% / +9.4%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team4.212.299.508.362.001.212.071.001.2911.935.860.865.074.29
Opp8.362.867.2112.363.141.713.362.145.7913.716.211.072.714.29

ATL 31-10 SU on Sunday since last year
team = Braves and season > 2017 and day = Sunday
SU:31-10 (1.54, 75.6%) avg line: -115.0 / 103.9 on / against: +$2,323 / -$2,493 ROI: +44.2% / -51.3%
RL:22-19 (1.28, 53.7%) avg line: -106.0 / -114.2 on / against: +$240 / -$545 ROI: +4.8% / -10.4%
OU:20-21-0 (0.20, 48.8%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$285 / -$62 ROI: -6.3% / -1.4%

CLE 28-12 SU over last 40 games
View attachment 41013

View attachment 41011
View attachment 41012
Click to expand...
In your graph, like where Kikuchi’s stats read 16-3-1, i am assuming that is in correlation with over - under - tie, correct?
 
T-Rex said:
In your graph, like where Kikuchi’s stats read 16-3-1, i am assuming that is in correlation with over - under - tie, correct?
Click to expand...

Yes when he starts the games go over 16-3-1//crazy but he was 16-1-1 until last 2 went under KillerSports.com


starter = Yusei Kikuchi

SU:8-12 (-0.80, 40.0%) avg line: 109.9 / -121.8 on / against: -$438 / +$376 ROI: -19.2% / +14.3%
RL:9-11 (-0.35, 45.0%) avg line: -120.7 / 101.0 on / against: -$350 / +$220 ROI: -13.1% / +9.0%
OU:16-3-1 (2.10, 84.2%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: +$1,275 / -$1,455 ROI: +58.1% / -66.0%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team5.153.709.258.401.902.003.151.253.3512.956.800.553.404.65
Opp5.954.557.859.202.101.553.451.503.8015.657.501.153.004.65
 
BenchCoach said:
think Pirates were allowing 5.0 rpg last 10 games going into today...could be wrong
Click to expand...

Thank you for that, sometimes a 2nd set of eyes help. I dont backtest nearly enough, and the code is so picky sometimes the order of the letter/numbers are huge

This gives opponent's opponents avg runs(you have to sum 10 games and divide by 10
(op10o:runs+op9o:runs+op8o:runs+op7o:runs+op6o:runs+op5o:runs+op4o:runs+op3o:runs+op2o:runs+opo:runs)/10

That is correct and the only change was all them 10 games I had as oop8:runs and what it was adding was the opponent's opponent previous 10 games..same oppont over 10 games or PHI 10 game avg.

corrected code:
Code: 
site,team,total,(p10:total+p9:total+p8:total+p7:total+p6:total+p5:total+p4:total+p3:total+p2:total+p:total)/10 as 'Avg Tot', (p10:runs+p9:runs+p8:runs+p7:runs+p6:runs+p5:runs+p4:runs+p3:runs+p2:runs+p:runs)/10 as 'Avg Runs', (p10o:runs+p9o:runs+p8o:runs+p7o:runs+p6o:runs+p5o:runs+p4o:runs+p3o:runs+p2o:runs+po:runs)/10 as 'Avg Allow', o:team, (op10:total+op9:total+op8:total+op7:total+op6:total+op5:total+op4:total+op3:total+op2:total+op:total)/10 as 'Avg Tot', (op10:runs+op9:runs+op8:runs+op7:runs+op6:runs+op5:runs+op4:runs+op3:runs+op2:runs+op:runs)/10 as 'Avg Runs', (op10o:runs+op9o:runs+op8o:runs+op7o:runs+op6o:runs+op5o:runs+op4o:runs+op3o:runs+op2o:runs+opo:runs)/10 as 'Avg Allow' @date=today

When I copied it in to my sheet and checked for today, it gave 2. HOU over and ATL under

View attachment 41026
 
Last edited:
YTD [732-647 +15.16u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-17 -7.16u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
Well, proving this shit is cyclic, I made ~31in 7 days after break and now I have managed to give back ~17u over the last 4 days :embarassed: View attachment 41031
  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers -115
  • 905 Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers Under 9 -115
  • 907 Chicago Cubs -111
  • 907 Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Giants Under 9 -117
  • 909 Cleveland Indians -1½ -110
  • 909 Cleveland Indians -166
  • 909 Cleveland Indians/Toronto Blue Jays Under 9 -105
  • 914 Minnesota Twins +103
  • 915 Oakland Athletics +210
  • 918 Seattle Mariners -121
  • 919 Miami Marlins +106
  • 922 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ -110
  • 922 Arizona Diamondbacks -230
I'm definitely due for an up-tick. Basically everything went south yesterday, favs, overs and model; the good thing about betting favorites on ML, you rarely see an extended losing streak. You just have stay focused and don't panic. As bad as my weekend was,..looking back over the last 11 days I am up 12.45u :cool:
View attachment 41028
View attachment 41029

​
 
10 game averages for runs, runs allowed, HR, errors, hits pr run and left on base
sorted by hits per run

View attachment 41033

Kinda odd that the tigs are 3rd on this list, must have been victim of some bad luck offensively. They also give up the 3rd most runs over same period.

If you wanna play around with it...here's the link

You can sort each column by clicking top row
 
Roy's plaque. He was a favorite of mine and one of the last true horses.

C00Xymc.jpg
 
Last edited:
Totals experiment had to be reset when @BenchCoach found an error in my code. It has been corrected and back fitted to yesterday. Went 1-1 yesterday...ironically the error-ed picks I posted yesterday went 3-2 lol

If anyone want to play around with the sdql, here's the link KillerSports.com

Two picks today: Yanks under and Reds over

View attachment 41038
 
I went over those numbers a bunch of times. I didn't want to question your formula unless I was 100% sure...I have a site that is a bit easier and enables you to come up with the averages much quicker just adding simple numbers in your head...I will PM you the site, works for me anyway. Small sample size but its pretty significant early on, check out your stud pitcher games that you are disqualifying. If you simply circle those games and fade the public its hitting at a ridiculous rate (over 90%). I use the action network app (not sure if I can post this, sorry if I'm not supposed too) to track public % and $...seems to work pretty good. Easy to read and its on my phone
 
believe that sucka

bC1wOhm.gif


SL - Daniel Ponce de Leon has been pretty strong in five starts this year and now has an encouraging 2.49 ERA-/87 FIP- and 26.8 K% across 68.1 career innings. T Willams hasn't been able to carry over his elite 2018 second half, posting a 5.16 ERA-/103 FIP- this season, and the Pirates as a whole have been hot shit since the break

WAS - Even with the win yesterday, these Rox have major problems on offense and rotation outside of Marquez. Erick Fedde has a 3.53 ERA- through 46.1 innings and while that seems likely to regress, he has a good chance to outduel struggling rookie Peter Lambert.

CLE FF -0.5 - Tribe has spiked a nice schedule lately and good teams take advantage of that. Even though are have not been particularly great vs southpaws, they do have the best batting average in the AL in July. Clevinger is tough to get a read on but throws hard enough to make his off speed effective. He is basically their ace going against the worst offensive home team.
 
tuck321 said:
Would dump Ray playing on 4
Click to expand...

mainly it's a fade of the o's, not only have they been over +200 more than any other team this year, they also have the worse win percent 17.9%
team = Orioles and date >= today -120 and line > 200
SU:5-23 (-3.36, 17.9%) avg line: 244.0 / -280.0 on / against: -$1,075 / +$900 ROI: -38.4% / +11.4%
RL:8-20 (-1.86, 28.6%) avg line: 130.0 / -150.2 on / against: -$900 / +$740 ROI: -32.1% / +17.5%
OU:14-10-4 (0.59, 58.3%) avg total: 9.3 over / under: +$295 / -$507 ROI: +9.5% / -16.6%

and btw they have lost 18 straight when catch over 200 chalk

View attachment 41051
 
YTD [740-654 +14.9u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [8-7-2 -0.26u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 951 St. Louis Cardinals +115
  • 956 New York Mets +118
  • 955 San Diego Padres/New York Mets Under 8½ -108
  • 958 Milwaukee Brewers -130
  • 959 Chicago Cubs -107
  • 959 Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -115
  • 961 Cleveland Indians -1½ -110
  • 961 Cleveland Indians -165
  • 961 Cleveland Indians/Toronto Blue Jays Over 9½ +105
  • 965 New York Yankees -116
  • 968 Houston Astros -143
  • 971 Philadelphia Phillies -138
  • 973 Kansas City Royals/Atlanta Braves Over 9 -110
  • 974 Atlanta Braves -208
  • 976 Chicago White Sox +113
  • 977 Baltimore Orioles/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 +102
  • 978 Arizona Diamondbacks -161
randoms...
Nats on 2-14 totals run since 6/30 KillerSports.com
team = Nationals and date >= today -23
SU:11-5 (1.31, 68.8%) avg line: -182.1 / 161.2 on / against: +$454 / -$517 ROI: +15.1% / -29.9%
RL:10-6 (0.56, 62.5%) avg line: -130.3 / 110.6 on / against: +$250 / -$380 ROI: +11.5% / -21.6%
OU:2-14-0 (-2.12, 12.5%) avg total: 9.7 over / under: -$1,355 / +$1,190 ROI: -75.9% / +68.6%

BOS 5-11 on Tuesday this year..fade at +164 avg for +78% ROI
team = Red Sox and day = Tuesday and date >= today -120
SU:5-11 (-1.12, 31.2%) avg line: -179.5 / 164.1 on / against: -$1,402 / +$1,251 ROI: -48.4% / +77.8%
RL:5-11 (-2.62, 31.2%) avg line: -100.9 / -119.1 on / against: -$650 / +$555 ROI: -36.9% / +28.6%
OU:10-6-0 (0.81, 62.5%) avg total: 9.3 over / under: +$330 / -$501 ROI: +18.7% / -28.6%

ATL over total 19-3-1 @ home in inter-conf last 3 years (games avg over 3 runs over total!)
team = Braves and date >= today -1000 and conference != o:conference and H
SU:8-15 (-1.78, 34.8%) avg line: -131.1 / 119.5 on / against: -$994 / +$905 ROI: -32.9% / +36.4%
RL:9-14 (-1.98, 39.1%) avg line: -101.7 / -118.5 on / against: -$670 / +$435 ROI: -23.5% / +14.1%
OU:19-3-1 (3.24, 86.4%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: +$1,550 / -$1,810 ROI: +61.0% / -71.8%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team5.223.358.269.572.170.912.521.433.3515.097.680.524.044.91
Opp7.003.578.2210.573.001.483.171.964.3514.437.050.782.834.78

View attachment 41067

View attachment 41068
 
just more bs View attachment 41095

  • Gints at plus money - Why not at this point. Bum is having a nice bounce-back year with a 3.58 ERA-/89 FIP-, a few more strikeouts than his career average, and a 5 percent walk rate. Yu has had two nice starts in a row, but loses control far too often for my liking. Hard to pass at this number and SF been so hot
  • Doyers -0.5 FF - Maeda's WHIP keeps getting lower and has had an interesting 10 days of working scoreless innings before a rain delay and then an inning of relief to keep arm fresh. With only 3 innings worked expect him to look rested and impressive at home. Throwing out an emotional combined no-hitter on Skaggs night, Pena has not been impressive with a low velocity two-seamer that can't get through lineups twice without scoring opportunities. Yielding over a homerun an outing and a strikeout an inning should not keep the best team in baseball off the board.
  • PHI -0.5 FF - Getting an incredible price on a road fav early this morning vst a team with home field disadvantage. The Tigers have lost 27 of the last 31 games at home and Matt Boyd has given up at least 3 runs in his last 8 starts (and at least 4 in his last 6). Meanwhile, if you throw out some starts against the best teams in the NL I see Nola pitching like an all-star the last month. Look for the Phanatics to celebrate early and often tonight.
  • ATL -1.5 - Keuchel looks more and more comfortable each outing and the bravos have offense and defense for days. Plus A T L at home, coming from a day off, against one of the worst teams in the league. May hit this game with more cheese before long

 
adds...
  • 969 Texas Rangers/Seattle Mariners Over 10 -105
  • 971 Philadelphia Phillies 1st 5 Innings -½ +100
  • 974 Atlanta Braves -1½ -114
  • 980 Los Angeles Dodgers -180
  • 980 Los Angeles Dodgers 1st 5 Innings -½ -125
 
i cant get enough
  • 953 Colorado Rockies/Washington Nationals Under 9 +100
  • 964 Tampa Bay Rays +1½ -110
  • 963 Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7½ +100
((tA(runs+o:runs, N=10) + oA(runs+o:runs, N=10)) / 2 -2.2 > total) and season > 2016 and H and AASB
SU:85-80 (0.09, 51.5%) avg line: -129.4 / 115.7 on / against: -$1,757 / +$825 ROI: -7.4% / +4.2%
RL:75-90 (-0.37, 45.5%) avg line: 107.4 / -127.8 on / against: -$1,355 / +$135 ROI: -7.1% / +0.6%
OU:64-95-6 (-0.35, 40.3%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$3,982 / +$2,665 ROI: -21.9% / +14.8%
 
YTD [746-671 +3.65u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [6-17-2 -11.25u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 901 Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers Over 10 -105
  • 902 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +130
  • 902 Milwaukee Brewers -141
  • 903 Chicago Cubs -136
  • 903 Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Giants Under 8½ -110
  • 912 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +185
  • 911 Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7½ -103
  • 914 Houston Astros -1½ -110
  • 917 Cleveland Indians/Toronto Blue Jays Under 8½ +105
  • 920 Minnesota Twins +103
  • 921 Philadelphia Phillies/Detroit Tigers Over 10½ +102
  • 925 Kansas City Royals/Atlanta Braves Over 9½ -105
  • 926 Atlanta Braves -176 (2u)

​
 
adds
  • 913 Oakland Athletics +190
  • 919 New York Yankees/Minnesota Twins Under 11 -115
  • 929 Los Angeles Angels/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 9½ +105
  • 932 Washington Nationals -116 - Game 1
 
ADDING
  • 905 St. Louis Cardinals -104
  • 907 Colorado Rockies/Washington Nationals Over 9½ +100
  • 908 Washington Nationals -1½ -135
  • 908 Washington Nationals -220
  • 910 New York Mets -150
  • 917 Cleveland Indians -123
  • 927 Miami Marlins +115
  • 927 Miami Marlins/Chicago White Sox Under 9 -110
  • 930 Los Angeles Dodgers -200
  • 930 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -105
 
I'm all in on BRAVOS
  • 926 Atlanta Braves-1½ +100
  • 926 Atlanta Braves -190 .. already had 2u but added just a little more..still call it 2u
  • 926 Atlanta Braves 1st 5 Innings -½ -125
​
 
Last edited:
notes & rumors
  • ARZ: Yanks talking to D-backs about Robbie Ray
  • MLW: Rays have shown interest in Jesus Aguilar
  • SF: Cueto (elbow) to face live hitters Wednesday
  • TEX: Rangers demote Ronald Guzman to Triple-A
  • TEX: Danny Santana out of TEX lineup on Tuesday
  • KC: Mondesi (shoulder) remains in shutdown mode
  • SEA: Mariners place Dee Gordon (quad) on the IL
  • MIN: Buxton activation delay due to wisdom teeth
  • CWS: Tim Anderson (ankle) ready for rehab games
  • MLW: Hiura (quad) back in Brewers' lineup Tuesday
View attachment 41135
 
YTD [758-687 -1.77u] (11-5 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-16-2 -5.42u] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 952 New York Mets -1½ +110
  • 951 San Diego Padres/New York Mets Under 7½ -102
  • 953 St. Louis Cardinals +112
  • 953 St. Louis Cardinals/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9 -102
  • 956 Washington Nationals -292
  • 957 New York Yankees -1½ +125
  • 957 New York Yankees -115
  • 959 Minnesota Twins -138
  • 959 Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Under 8½ +105
  • 961 Cleveland Indians -138
  • 966 Oakland Athletics -168
  • 965 Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics Under 9½ -110
randoms...
Rox 2-17 on RL this month
RL:2-17 (-3.71, 10.5%) avg line: 102.8 / -122.8 on / against: -$1,675 / +$1,575 ROI: -77.4% / +64.8%

O's 36-107 when facing righties on the road over last 3 years
team = Orioles and date >= today -900 and o:STR and A
SU:36-107 (-1.99, 25.2%) avg line: 158.5 / -175.0 on / against: -$5,793 / +$5,212 ROI: -39.4% / +20.6%

A's 41-28 SU in July over last 3 years (22-9 @home)
team = Athletics and date >= today -900 and month = 7
SU:41-28 (0.72, 59.4%) avg line: 103.8 / -116.6 on / against: +$1,893 / -$2,229 ROI: +22.8% / -24.3%

Pads 11-32 SU in July since last year(6-12 this year)...even more profitable fading them on RL 32.2% ROI
team = Padres and date >= today -500 and month = 7
SU:11-32 (-1.91, 25.6%) avg line: 132.5 / -143.8 on / against: -$1,788 / +$1,605 ROI: -39.0% / +25.4%
RL:16-27 (-0.97, 37.2%) avg line: -127.0 / 106.8 on / against: -$1,910 / +$1,545 ROI: -33.3% / +32.2%


Teams coming home as a dog after at least 6 games on the road ...fade BOS
tS(A, N=6) = 6 and H and season > 2016 and month < 9 and D
SU:72-128 (-1.71, 36.0%) avg line: 133.7 / -145.5 on / against: -$3,752 / +$2,965 ROI: -18.6% / +10.1%
RL:91-109 (-0.26, 45.5%) avg line: -130.4 / 111.3 on / against: -$4,830 / +$3,102 ROI: -18.1% / +14.4%
OU:92-95-13 (0.79, 49.2%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$1,110 / -$513 ROI: -5.1% / -2.3%

Favs over 150 on Thursday with total 9 or more after break L3 years (WAS & OAK)
F and date >= today -800 and total >= 9 and (-150 > line) and day = Thursday and AASB
SU:42-15 (1.95, 73.7%) avg line: -189.2 / 173.7 on / against: +$1,509 / -$1,714 ROI: +14.1% / -30.1%
RL:28-28 (0.36, 50.0%) avg line: -102.4 / -117.4 on / against: -$50 / -$420 ROI: -0.8% / -6.1%
OU:20-33-4 (0.02, 37.7%) avg total: 9.6 over / under: -$1,510 / +$1,115 ROI: -24.6% / +17.5%

View attachment 41146
View attachment 41145

18th birthday...legal at last
drool.gif

View attachment 41147
 
Info you didn't know you needed

Since 2017 conference favorites that avg over 25% fewer errors than league avg have won 65% for 14% ROI when total is 9 or more.

Also in same situation, the over cashes 63% for 20% ROI :megaphone:

View attachment 41162
 
Last edited:
mrpickem said:
Info you didn't know you needed

Since 2017 conference favorites that avg over 25% fewer errors than league avg have won 65% for 14% ROI when total is 9 or more.

Also in same situation, the over cashes 63% for 20% ROI :megaphone:

View attachment 41162
Click to expand...
Not sure how to read this graph. Based on those stats.... are there any plays registering?
 
YTD [765-693 -1.49u] (11-5 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [7-6-1 +0.28u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 902 Cincinnati Reds -128
  • 903 Los Angeles Dodgers -156
  • 905 Atlanta Braves -123
  • 908 New York Mets -167
  • 908 New York Mets -1½ +125
  • 909 Arizona Diamondbacks -171
  • 909 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +100
  • 911 Chicago Cubs -104
  • 914 San Diego Padres -141
  • 915 Tampa Bay Rays -135
  • 918 Boston Red Sox +123
  • 919 Minnesota Twins -149
  • 921 Cleveland Indians -123
  • 924 Oakland Athletics -110
  • 928 Seattle Mariners -130
  • 928 Seattle Mariners -1½ +145
  • 929 Houston Astros -108
  • 929 Houston Astros -1½ +150
random
View attachment 41175
View attachment 41176

View attachment 41177
 
adds
  • 901 Colorado Rockies/Cincinnati Reds Under 8½ -105
  • 903 Los Angeles Dodgers/Washington Nationals Under 9½ -105
  • 907 Pittsburgh Pirates/New York Mets Under 9 +102
  • 909 Arizona Diamondbacks/Miami Marlins Under 7½ +100
  • 913 San Francisco Giants/San Diego Padres Under 8 +100
  • 915 Tampa Bay Rays/Toronto Blue Jays Under 9½ -105
  • 927 Detroit Tigers/Seattle Mariners Under 9½ -115
 
Now hear this: :megaphone:

  • Reds -127 - Marquez is very good, but he hasn't been good the last month and the team as a whole is struggling overall in July. Luis Castillo has been a fairly safe bet this year, posting a 2.44/1.11- and 28.8 K℅.
  • Rays -130 - Even with their injuries, the Rays should have enough to handle the Jays and Jacob Waguespack, who is coming off a pretty mediocre start against the Tigers. Ryan Yarbrough has been effectivesince his opener , giving up only 3 er in 21.1 innings.
  • A's -112 - Lynn is having an excellent season, but the Rangers are slumping big time and will likely see their 93 team wRC+ tumble further without Gallo. Although Mengden is only average, this A's offense should be able to provide plenty of support.
  • Yanks/Sox Over 6.5 FF - There have been massive amount of early runs in this season series and we will likely see a lot of early runs tonight. Paxton has been passable, but besides an outlier high-strikeout outing at Tampa, his WHIP is over 2.00 in the other 4 of his last 5 starts, and BOS has a sneaky-high numbers vs lefties. The Yankees are healthier from a power standpoint and face Cashner again who seems to have lost his edge after getting traded to Boston. Bronx bombers show up tonight.
There are a couple other FF plays I'm still considering, maybe twinkies and/or the tribe
 
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