July Bases

adds
  • 926 Los Angeles Angels* -188
  • 917 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox 1st 5 Innings Over 6½ -110
  • 919 Minnesota Twins 1st 5 Innings -½ -135
  • 921 Cleveland Indians 1st 5 Innings -125
 
YTD [783-704 +3.07u] (11-5 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [18-11-1 +4.56u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 951 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +100
  • 951 Los Angeles Dodgers -165
  • 953 Arizona Diamondbacks -111
  • 953 Arizona Diamondbacks/Miami Marlins Under 7½ +100
  • 955 Atlanta Braves -116
  • 958 New York Mets -127
  • 957 Pittsburgh Pirates/New York Mets Under 9 +100
  • 960 Milwaukee Brewers -111
  • 967 New York Yankees +131
  • 967 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Over 12 +100
  • 970 Seattle Mariners -1½ +130
  • 970 Seattle Mariners -145
  • 969 Detroit Tigers/Seattle Mariners Under 9 -105
  • 971 Minnesota Twins -164
  • 971 Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Over 10½ -110
  • 973 Cleveland Indians -200
  • 973 Cleveland Indians -1½ -115
  • 973 Cleveland Indians/Kansas City Royals Under 9½ -115
  • 976 Oakland Athletics -151
  • 975 Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics Under 9½ -110
  • 979 Houston Astros -180
  • 979 Houston Astros/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -110
randoms...
FAVS 180 OR MORE ON SAT AFTER BREAK LAST 2+ YEARS FARE WELL SU & RL - TODAY CLE QUALIFIES
F and date >= today -800 and total >= 9 and (-180 >= line) and day = Saturday and AASB
SU:41-8 (3.37, 83.7%) avg line: -225.0 / 202.0 on / against: +$2,465 / -$2,605 ROI: +22.3% / -53.2%
RL:34-15 (1.87, 69.4%) avg line: -123.1 / 103.1 on / against: +$1,570 / -$1,985 ROI: +25.7% / -37.6%

FADE FAVS 140 OR LESS ON SAT AFTER BREAK LAST 2+ YEARS - TODAY CUBS, PHI, NYY ARE THE PLAYS
F and date >= today -800 and total >= 9 and (line > -140) and day = Saturday and AASB
SU:38-46 (-0.29, 45.2%) avg line: -121.4 / 111.4 on / against: -$1,676 / +$1,229 ROI: -16.5% / +14.6%
RL:27-57 (-1.71, 32.1%) avg line: 141.0 / -161.4 on / against: -$1,885 / +$1,375 ROI: -21.8% / +10.0%

View attachment 41215

View attachment 41214

paige.gif
​
 
Tribe 16-4 over L20 and have only allowed 59 runs in that time, next best is Nats at 64 allowed and then next best 76 by LAD & SL
But wait..they have been bottom feeding with 3 series' vs KC, and another with Det plus Tor. Only good team the played was MIN and they lost 2 of 3 at home. No worries, they still got KC today and tomorrow and no team crushes bottom tier like Injuns...ride em but dont think they are that great once the competition gets better

View attachment 41218
 
had to re-bets this one because Nats changed starter, cost me 20 cents on each wager. Strangely enough I have Grace rated slightly higher than Ross so wtf?
  • 951 Los Angeles Dodgers -185
  • 951 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -125
  • 971 Minnesota Twins -1½ -113
Added twins rl as well because why not?
 
I am shocked and horrified. Not laying anything. Just ML You willl regret that I think but the rest were good
 
Last edited:
YTD [800-714 +5.71u] (11-6 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [17-10-3 +2.64u] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 902 Philadelphia Phillies -137
  • 903 Arizona Diamondbacks -157
  • 906 New York Mets -129
  • 908 Cincinnati Reds -150
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -112
  • 912 Milwaukee Brewers -115
  • 914 San Diego Padres +100
  • 915 Tampa Bay Rays -147
  • 917 Minnesota Twins -179
  • 919 Cleveland Indians -174
  • 922 Oakland Athletics -200
  • 924 Los Angeles Angels -220
  • 927 New York Yankees +171
  • 929 Houston Astros -133
  • 901 Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9½ -115
  • 903 Arizona Diamondbacks/Miami Marlins Under 8 -110
  • 905 Pittsburgh Pirates/New York Mets Under 9 +100
  • 907 Colorado Rockies/Cincinnati Reds Over 10 -110
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers/Washington Nationals Under 8½ -110
  • 913 San Francisco Giants/San Diego Padres Under 8 +100
  • 917 Minnesota Twins -1½ -115
  • 917 Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Over 10½ -110
  • 921 Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics Over 9½ -115
  • 923 Baltimore Orioles/Los Angeles Angels Over 10 -105
  • 924 Los Angeles Angels -1½ -115
randoms...
View attachment 41256

View attachment 41255
View attachment 41257
 
Pads under total 87% vs teams with winning record over last 6 weeks
View attachment 41259

MIL 50-30 62.5% for 32.8% ROI vs teams with winning record after the break over last 3 years / side effect: under cashes 65% for 23.8% ROI

team = Brewers and o:WP > 50 and date > today -900 and AASB
SU:50-30 (0.82, 62.5%) avg line: 115.5 / -126.4 on / against: +$2,837 / -$3,220 ROI: +32.8% / -30.5%
RL:54-26 (1.50, 67.5%) avg line: -127.0 / 106.5 on / against: +$2,495 / -$3,110 ROI: +22.1% / -32.6%
OU:27-50-3 (-0.58, 35.1%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$2,760 / +$2,085 ROI: -31.2% / +23.8%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team4.473.589.218.351.761.232.521.114.4914.467.050.892.024.65
Opp3.653.259.257.261.551.051.990.992.6613.366.280.962.454.66
 
NYY alltime as a dog after losing first 2+ games of a series cash the RL 73% for 19.6% ROI (12-3 L15)

View attachment 41265

NYY alltime on the road after losing first 2+ games of a series cash the RL 68.7% for 24.8% ROI and win SU 60% for 12.8% ROI

team = Yankees and streak < -1 and SG > 2 and A and season > 2014
SU:14-15 (-0.17, 48.3%) avg line: 105.3 / -116.6 on / against: -$129 / -$27 ROI: -3.8% / -0.7%
RL:19-10 (0.09, 65.5%) avg line: -129.7 / 113.3 on / against: +$867 / -$970 ROI: +21.3% / -28.8%
OU:14-13-2 (0.43, 51.9%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: +$8 / -$204 ROI: +0.3% / -6.4%


https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&ou=1&sdql=team+=Yankees+and+streak<-1+and+SG>2+and+D&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
 
a little late but thought I would share anyways
teams on getaway day with totals under 9 are really looking great for under backers..hitting 6 in a row and 11 of 13 going into today

Logically:
  • A total less than 9 this season means a solid pitching match-up or ballpark conditions advantageous to pitchers.
  • Teams often rest offensive starters on these days
  • Totals are inflated in 2019 and getting higher daily

OVER 64% go under for 21.3%ROI
Code says: Home (just to negate duplicates) and season=2019 and total under 9 and day=Sun or Wed and Last Game of Series

H and season = 2019 and total < 9 and day in [Sunday , Wednesday] and LGS
SU:98-74 (0.28, 57.0%) avg line: -125.4 / 112.7 on / against: +$1,073 / -$1,777 ROI: +4.5% / -8.9%
RL:83-89 (-0.17, 48.3%) avg line: 108.5 / -129.1 on / against: +$40 / -$1,440 ROI: +0.2% / -6.0%
OU:63-108-1 (-0.21, 36.8%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$5,584 / +$4,003 ROI: -29.3% / +21.3%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team4.033.059.397.861.781.052.351.034.3113.526.590.712.224.35
Opp3.742.869.587.861.571.022.240.942.9713.606.390.882.524.05
 
YTD [814-726 +5u] (11-6 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [14-12 -0.71u] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Washington Nationals -145
  • 951 Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals Under 9½ -115
  • 953 Arizona Diamondbacks -103
  • 953 Arizona Diamondbacks/Miami Marlins Under 7½ +100
  • 956 Cincinnati Reds -174
  • 957 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +110
  • 957 Los Angeles Dodgers -129 (2u)
  • 957 Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Over 12½ -115
  • 959 Toronto Blue Jays +106
  • 959 Toronto Blue Jays/Kansas City Royals Over 10 +103
  • 962 Los Angeles Angels -220
randoms...
View attachment 41287
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Early model data only includes ump factors for one game(MIA), but I will be on the road all day and wont have a chance to post again.
Value on LAD and I love the spot as well as the RL.

View attachment 41290

:cheers3:
 
YTD [817-732 +1.62u] (11-7 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [3-6-2 -3.38u] (0-1 on 2u plays)
  • 901 San Francisco Giants +116
  • 901 San Francisco Giants/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10½ +100
  • 904 Washington Nationals -105
  • 905 Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Under 9½ -102
  • 906 Cincinnati Reds -140
  • 907 Chicago Cubs -121
  • 907 Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +100
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -150
  • 911 Houston Astros -1½ +120
  • 911 Houston Astros/Cleveland Indians Under 8½ +105
  • 913 Tampa Bay Rays/Boston Red Sox Under 9½ +105
  • 914 Boston Red Sox -138
  • 915 Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers Over 11½ -103
  • 916 Texas Rangers -125
  • 917 Toronto Blue Jays -112
  • 920 Los Angeles Angels -263
  • 924 New York Yankees -1½ -125
  • 923 Arizona Diamondbacks/New York Yankees Over 11½ +105
  • 925 Minnesota Twins -138
  • 927 New York Mets*-145
  • 927 New York Mets/Chicago White Sox Under 9 +102
  • 929 Milwaukee Brewers/Oakland Athletics Under 9 -105
  • 930 Oakland Athletics -120
1564425557648.png
 
Mr. P, I'm confused, (no surprise).

On post #276 you have today's plays as Col, Phil, Tex under, Miami over. Then in the next post you have what I assume are your plays and three of the four are the opposite sides.

Am I not understanding your picks?
 
inZane said:
Mr. P, I'm confused, (no surprise).

On post #276 you have today's plays as Col, Phil, Tex under, Miami over. Then in the next post you have what I assume are your plays and three of the four are the opposite sides.

Am I not understanding your picks?
Click to expand...

Post 276 is just an experiment I'm following to see how it pans out. Taking each teams lat 10 games average pts + opp ptts and todays opponents L10 avg run + their opp runs and average that compared to todays total, if it's >= 2 more bet over, <=2 less bet under.

Sorry for confusion but just a test and not my plays necessarily

I been posing this test for 4 or 5 days now...I'm just a numbers geek

:shake:
 
YTD [829-744 +0.0u] (11-7 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-12 -1.62u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 Washington Nationals +105
  • 954 Cincinnati Reds -1½ -105
  • 954 Cincinnati Reds -200
  • 955 Los Angeles Dodgers -126
  • 955 Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Over 12 -105
  • 958 Philadelphia Phillies -133
  • 959 Chicago Cubs -108
  • 959 Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -115
  • 961 Toronto Blue Jays/Kansas City Royals Over 10 -102
  • 962 Kansas City Royals -112
  • 964 Los Angeles Angels -188
  • 972 New York Yankees -128
  • 971 Arizona Diamondbacks/New York Yankees Under 9½ -103
  • 973 Minnesota Twins -173
  • 973 Minnesota Twins/Miami Marlins Under 8 +100
  • 975 New York Mets -159
  • 975 New York Mets/Chicago White Sox Under 8 +100
  • 978 Oakland Athletics -124
  • 977 Milwaukee Brewers/Oakland Athletics Under 9 -101
randoms...
Big Favs on getaway day in last game of series win 78.7% for 11.6%ROI over 3 years. (22-3 over L25) KillerSports.com
View attachment 41320
...
View attachment 41319


View attachment 41318

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Another interesting look at Wednesday games...

Favorites on Wed after the break when total is 10 or more win 71.7% for 18.8% ROI / bonus angle...over cashes 61% for 16% ROI (Over 8 years)
Favs 25-4 last 29! Total over 12 of last 20 or 60% :hypnosis:

as totals have grew so much, there are 6 spots that apply today...I played most of 'em.

View attachment 41323
 
I reworked my daily starter SDQL to include 1st inn run allowed y/n and first five inn W, L , P
1st Yes means starter gave up a run in 1st - best Degrom only 3 in 21 starts - worse Junis gave up run in 10 of 22
FFW is FF Win and best FF record of todays starters in Ryu 15-4-1 and worse Alcantara 5-10-5

View attachment 41326
 
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