July Bases

YTD [580-520 +8.84u] (10-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [10-7-2 +4.03u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 903 Miami Marlins/Atlanta Braves Over 9 +100
  • 904 Atlanta Braves -1½ +105
  • 904 Atlanta Braves -191
  • 907 St. Louis Cardinals +105
  • 910 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +130
  • 910 Los Angeles Dodgers -145
  • 912 Arizona Diamondbacks -106
  • 913 Texas Rangers/Minnesota Twins Over 10 -105
  • 914 Minnesota Twins -155
  • 915 Baltimore Orioles +139
  • 915 Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays Over 11 +105
  • 918 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +150
  • 918 Tampa Bay Rays -136
  • 923 Oakland Athletics -130
  • 923 Oakland Athletics/Seattle Mariners Over 9½ +100
  • 925 Kansas City Royals +360
  • 927 Cleveland Indians/Cincinnati Reds Over 9 +100
  • 928 Cincinnati Reds +113
  • 929 Chicago Cubs -117
  • 929 Chicago Cubs/Chicago White Sox Over 9½ +100
View attachment 40631
View attachment 40627

 
adding a few more
  • 902 Pittsburgh Pirates +120
  • 901 Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 10 -110
  • 919 Boston Red Sox -1½ -130
  • 919 Boston Red Sox/Detroit Tigers Over 11 +100
:cheers3:
 
tidbits

  • Mets’ bullpen in Jacob deGrom’s starts: 51 ER allowed in 49.1 IP.
  • Following a rare Friday off for both teams, Windy City rivals meet on the South Side in the opener of a 2-game series. CHW stud Giolito (11-2, 2.72 ERA) starts for the the Sox vst Lester (7-6, 3.89) and the Cubs, who are 9-15 in their last 24 games. Sox are 5-0 in the L5 after a day off, while 4-1 in L5 vs. LHP, also 5-2 in the L7 overall and 13-6 in the past 19 @home. Sox are 10-2 in Giolito's L12 while going 6-0 in the past six @home.
  • ATL 13-3 L16 @ home and FF over is 17-7 L24 overall
  • PIT 27-11-2 over total in home games this year
  • M's 29-14-3 over total in home games this year
  • LAD 37-10 @ home this year (16-4 in division)
  • tigs no bargain @home View attachment 40640
  • Cubs on the road 17-26 SU, 19-24 RL and 24-14 over total View attachment 40641
 
You listed the CUBS as a play...

Was that a typo. All your statistics make for a play on the Whitesox no???
 
AtlHawks said:
You listed the CUBS as a play...

Was that a typo. All your statistics make for a play on the Whitesox no???
Click to expand...
mrpickem said:
tidbits

  • Mets’ bullpen in Jacob deGrom’s starts: 51 ER allowed in 49.1 IP.
  • Following a rare Friday off for both teams, Windy City rivals meet on the South Side in the opener of a 2-game series. CHW stud Giolito (11-2, 2.72 ERA) starts for the the Sox vst Lester (7-6, 3.89) and the Cubs, who are 9-15 in their last 24 games. Sox are 5-0 in the L5 after a day off, while 4-1 in L5 vs. LHP, also 5-2 in the L7 overall and 13-6 in the past 19 @home. Sox are 10-2 in Giolito's L12 while going 6-0 in the past six @home.
  • ATL 13-3 L16 @ home and FF over is 17-7 L24 overall
  • PIT 27-11-2 over total in home games this year
  • M's 29-14-3 over total in home games this year
  • LAD 37-10 @ home this year (16-4 in division)
  • tigs no bargain @home View attachment 40640
  • Cubs on the road 17-26 SU, 19-24 RL and 24-14 over total View attachment 40641
Click to expand...
What does SPD mean on your chart?
 
AtlHawks said:
You listed the CUBS as a play...

Was that a typo. All your statistics make for a play on the Whitesox no???
Click to expand...

I did take the cubs because of several angles and my model, but I still post other ways to look at it. I’m not an average player, I bet so many games I’m not really concerned with a single loss or two or maybe I would have bought out of the cubs spot...but letting it ride :teethgrill:
 
YTD [590-532 +6.24u] (10-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [10-12-2 -2.6u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 952 New York Mets -102
  • 953 Miami Marlins +198
  • 953 Miami Marlins/Atlanta Braves Over 9½ -103
  • 955 Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9½ +100
  • 956 Pittsburgh Pirates -102
  • 957 St. Louis Cardinals -115
  • 960 Arizona Diamondbacks +123
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -156
  • 963 Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays Over 10½ -110
  • 964 Toronto Blue Jays -160
  • 965 Boston Red Sox -241
  • 965 Boston Red Sox/Detroit Tigers Over 10 -110
  • 968 Tampa Bay Rays -110
  • 969 Los Angeles Angels/Houston Astros Over 10½ +100
  • 970 Houston Astros -150
  • 975 Cleveland Indians/Cincinnati Reds Over 9 -115
  • 976 Cincinnati Reds +112
  • 977 Kansas City Royals/Washington Nationals Over 9 -110
  • 978 Washington Nationals -240
  • 979 Chicago Cubs -171
  • 979 Chicago Cubs/Chicago White Sox Over 10½ +100
randoms...
View attachment 40658
View attachment 40659

View attachment 40661
 
as of today there are exactly 14 teams with winning records. here is how they have done when only playing other teams from this list sorted by win %

mvjVx45.png
 
My record hasn't been stellar but I've kept my head above water with over 1100 posted plays and have done much better over past 6 weeks.

edit...actually yesterday=Sunday :tiphat:

View attachment 40714

View attachment 40709

Top 25 most profitable starters
View attachment 40710
Alto the top 25 most profitable fades so far this year
View attachment 40711

1st game after break favs of 125 or more show nice profit winning 68.8% for 14.6% ROI KillerSports.com

View attachment 40712

Here's how each team has done in 1st game out of break last 15 years sorted by win %
View attachment 40713

Braves the best at 13-2 including 12-1 L123 KillerSports.com

 
We are thinking along similar lines but I believe you have missed something.
HIs first year Framber's splits were very good
That is no longer the case. In particular Framber at night had a ERA of 2.42 this season 6.38
I do not believe he was brought back because he had improved. They simply had no convenient option so attacking primarily in the first half has very real chances of seccess
 
I should mention that Lane on 6 has a 7 ERA but I think in this spot he will be able to largely control that because over his career he has been fine on 6+
A bet on the game over should hve good chances of winning as well
 
tuck321 said:
I should mention that Lane on 6 has a 7 ERA but I think in this spot he will be able to largely control that because over his career he has been fine on 6+
A bet on the game over should hve good chances of winning as well
Click to expand...

I think this could be an under although I doubt I play it, with both pens being fully rested we may see plenty of them but hopefully not as much of TEX relief as it's far from it. You may be right thar FF TEX is the stronger play, but I already on the game...may add FF
 
Jm8122 said:
Anything we should look for now that we're in the 2nd half of the season in your opinion?
Click to expand...

My opinion the real changes are for Sept only and I almost quit betting for that month.

However in the last 5 years I haver noticed the overs do very well in the 1st half when lined at 9 or above. The favs over 125 also have profited 4 of 5 years with this year being the best of the 5
Before break:

View attachment 40735


2nd half a bit different as the overs on showed profit 1 over 5 and while the 125 or more favs still profited 4 of 5 years, the numbers were very low and I even omitted the Sept games, with them on one year did the favs over 125 profit
After break(without Sept and one year further back)

View attachment 40736

Home favs over 170 have profited the last four years straight both ML and RL with the RL showing better ROI at 7.5%
Once again this omitts the Sept games because I just cannot include them with capping as pertained to the rest of the season
View attachment 40737

Another trend I've had good success with regardless 1st or 2nd half is fading a team that managed an away win as a dog while getting less base hits in the next game when in division
It has profited 13 of 16 years(the whole database)
View attachment 40738
Historically its a better RL play but this year the ML has been slamming 32% ROI
View attachment 40739
 
GONNA ADD TWO,,,LIKED TEX BUT TUCK LED ME TO THE FF :shake:
  • 952 Texas Rangers 1st 5 Innings +108
  • 951 Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Under 11 -105
 
YTD [603-543 +6.6u] (10-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [3-0 +3.25u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 902 Chicago Cubs -152
  • 903 Washington Nationals -129
  • 903 Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9½ -110
  • 905 New York Mets +104
  • 907 San Francisco Giants +170
  • 910 St. Louis Cardinals -118
  • 911 Cincinnati Reds +112
  • 913 Atlanta Braves -109
  • 916 New York Yankees -1½ -145
  • 917 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +100
  • 917 Tampa Bay Rays -151
  • 917 Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles Under 9½ -110
  • 920 Cleveland Indians -137
  • 919 Minnesota Twins/Cleveland Indians Under 9 -115
  • 922 Texas Rangers +190
  • 926 Los Angeles Angels -156
  • 928 Oakland Athletics -181
  • 929 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +145
  • 929 Los Angeles Dodgers +100
randoms...
Pads 1-15 @ home in July since last year KillerSports.com
Bravos 13-2 1st game back after break L15 years while Pads 4-11
Yanks 28-10 on RL +30.5% ROI and 29-9 SU +21.9% ROI vs dision this year KillerSports.com
Reds only 13-33-2 on total at night this year--under for 36% ROI KillerSports.com
Mets 86-47-10 on total in road games at night over last 3 years - over for 22% ROI
Nats 13-23 SU and RL on Fridays since last year..fade for 38.6%/19.8% ROI KillerSports.com

View attachment 40747
View attachment 40748

​
 
Last edited:
I have made some minor adjustments to model, most importantly the levels that will be seen as value. Greater than 5% over actual spreads with now be point of value(down from 7.5%) and anything below -9% will construe fade value(down from -8.5%). I tested these over the season and they would have added significantly better returns. They are going to be backdated for July so you will see a minor one game adj in overall record and fade value, plus 7 extra games added to value plays for July moving record from 2-1 to 8-2. This was the easiest way for me to facilitate this easily without having to rewrite much code or formulas.

Value today is on CIN and fade value with PIT & TEX

Remember all games are bet with "Projected Winner" except "Fade Value" where you obviously fade the "Projected Winner"

View attachment 40755

Also I broke down the model for the month as well as the season on how it did in different ranges of value, results were somewhat surprising

View attachment 40763
 
Last edited:
Think you have to increase your bet on Yanks a lot their starter is great on 6 and the other guy is terrrible
 
adding
  • 901 Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs Over 9½ -110

Darvish is walking the most batters in the league and near the top of the league in HR/FB ratio. Wrigley day games in the summer could spell trouble. Archer is experiencing career worst numbers this season in: HR / FB ratio, BB/9 and HR/9. The last 4 game series between these two teams, which was played just a little over a week ago ( 7/1 - 7/4 ), seen 3 of the 4 games go over 9.5 runs in Pittsburgh. Darvish and Archer were the starters in game 3 of that series which ended with a final score of 6-5.

Since last year day games on Friday with totals 9 or 9.5 are 5-0 to the over

View attachment 40762
 
adding
  • 916 New York Yankees -280 (2u)
My bets are always risking 1 units so this would normally be 1u to get .357u but instead makes it 2 for .714

:cheers3:
 
Last edited:
YTD [614-549 +11.59u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [13-6-1 +4.99u] (1-1 on 2u plays)
  • 953 Pittsburgh Pirates +172
  • 956 Miami Marlins +127
  • 957 Washington Nationals +109
  • 960 St. Louis Cardinals -124
  • 962 Milwaukee Brewers -118
  • 963 Cincinnati Reds +113
  • 968 New York Yankees -1½ -140
  • 968 New York Yankees -240
  • 974 Cleveland Indians -133
  • 976 Kansas City Royals -105
  • 976 Kansas City Royals -1½ +185
  • 977 Houston Astros -1½ +120
  • 977 Houston Astros -122
  • 977 Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Over 10 +100
  • 981 Los Angeles Dodgers +156
  • 981 Los Angeles Dodgers/Boston Red Sox Over 9 -115
randoms..

View attachment 40792
View attachment 40791


​
 
Seriously considering an under in pilly or at least FF under
  • Nola last 4 starts 29ip 1er.
  • Nola home away splits 2019: 2.85 home 5.08 away 2018: 2.34 home 2.41 away 2017: 2.98 home 4.24 away
  • Corbin last 4 starts 28ip 3er. for an 0.96; he is 4-2, 3.22 in seven starts vs Philly
  • 2019: 1.84 home 5.26 away
  • Nats FF ov/un is 8-0 under L8 while PHI 5-2 under FF L7
  • 1st Inn NoNo may be relevant as well: Corbin only allowed score 3 of 21 and Nola 4 of 23

Both pitchers coming in HOT. Nola looked damn near unhittable his last 2 starts. He has movement on his pitches again that he didn't have early this year. He seems to have figured something out. FWIW, besides Doolittle both bullpens are horrendous

 
adds...
  • 957 Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies Under 8½ -107
  • 965 Atlanta Braves +107
  • 970 Oakland Athletics -188
  • 971 Tampa Bay Rays -210 (Game 2)
  • 973 Minnesota Twins/Cleveland Indians Under 9 -105
  • 983 Tampa Bay Rays -215 (Game 1)
 
Last edited:
one more
  • 983 Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles Over 10 -110 (Game 1)
cant let this one slide with Gonzalez behind the plate
 
Last edited:
NYY/TOR over 11'
Richard is 1-4, 8.22 L6; he is 0-1, 4.22 in two starts vs NY this year
Happ is 1-1, 6.86 L4; he is 3-0, 2.35 in four starts vs Toronto.
Jays have lost 7 of L10 road games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games
NY has cashed 10 of last 11 @home and over is 6-3 in their last nine @home
Jays 28-14 over total since last year in day games on the road
View attachment 40802
 
mrpickem said:
YTD [614-549 +11.59u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [13-6-1 +4.99u] (1-1 on 2u plays)
  • 953 Pittsburgh Pirates +172
  • 956 Miami Marlins +127
  • 957 Washington Nationals +109
  • 960 St. Louis Cardinals -124
  • 962 Milwaukee Brewers -118
  • 963 Cincinnati Reds +113
  • 968 New York Yankees -1½ -140
  • 968 New York Yankees -240
  • 974 Cleveland Indians -133
  • 976 Kansas City Royals -105
  • 976 Kansas City Royals -1½ +185
  • 977 Houston Astros -1½ +120
  • 977 Houston Astros -122
  • 977 Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Over 10 +100
  • 981 Los Angeles Dodgers +156
  • 981 Los Angeles Dodgers/Boston Red Sox Over 9 -115
randoms..

View attachment 40792
View attachment 40791


​
Click to expand...
Woah, I know it isn’t baseball related, but any idea who the chick in the white is with the button down top?
 
YTD [629-556 +18.48u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [15-7 +6.89u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

I started 0-5 yesterday with early afternoon games but had a nice comeback after that. :shake:
  • 902 Philadelphia Phillies -107
  • 904 Miami Marlins +190
  • 905 San Francisco Giants/Milwaukee Brewers Over 10 +100
  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers -162
  • 910 Chicago Cubs -153
  • 911 Cincinnati Reds +105
  • 913 Atlanta Braves -124
  • 917 Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees Over 10 -105
  • 918 New York Yankees -1½ -120
  • 918 New York Yankees -213
  • 920 Cleveland Indians -1½ +155
  • 920 Cleveland Indians -129
  • 921 Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals Over 10 -103
  • 922 Kansas City Royals -145
  • 923 Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Over 10½ +100
  • 924 Texas Rangers +199
  • 925 Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels Over 10½ -105
  • 926 Los Angeles Angels -157
  • 927 Chicago White Sox/Oakland Athletics Over 9½ -110
  • 928 Oakland Athletics -196
  • 929 Los Angeles Dodgers -102

randoms..
Bravos 30-10 on Sunday since last year (19-4 as fav)
team = Braves and day = Sunday and season > 2017
SU:30-10 (1.50, 75.0%) avg line: -114.0 / 102.9 on / against: +$2,223 / -$2,393 ROI: +43.5% / -50.3%
RL:21-19 (1.27, 52.5%) avg line: -106.5 / -113.7 on / against: +$130 / -$415 ROI: +2.6% / -8.1%
OU:20-20-0 (0.30, 50.0%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$182 / -$162 ROI: -4.1% / -3.7%

O's only win 26% vs right handed starters since last year
team = Orioles and o:STR and season > 2017
SU:43-122 (-1.84, 26.1%) avg line: 158.9 / -175.9 on / against: -$6,390 / +$5,797 ROI: -37.6% / +19.8%
RL:68-97 (-0.67, 41.2%) avg line: -110.7 / -109.3 on / against: -$4,140 / +$2,765 ROI: -20.4% / +13.7%
OU:74-83-8 (0.36, 47.1%) avg total: 9.1 over / under: -$1,683 / +$293 ROI: -9.2% / +1.6%


A's 25-9 after the break vs teams with losing record over last 3 years
team = Athletics and o:WP < 50 and season > 2016 and H and AASB
SU:25-9 (2.35, 73.5%) avg line: -151.2 / 138.7 on / against: +$1,386 / -$1,472 ROI: +27.2% / -42.2%
RL:17-16 (1.62, 51.5%) avg line: 106.0 / -122.1 on / against: +$135 / -$565 ROI: +3.5% / -12.4%
OU:19-13-2 (0.90, 59.4%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: +$518 / -$792 ROI: +14.0% / -21.0%


View attachment 40834
TeamStarterW-L
(margin)​
%win)OnAgainstOpp
BravesMike Soroka1232.8780842.0-875.0Padres
Red SoxDavid Price2091.8368795.0-885.0Dodgers
DiamondbacksZack Greinke22111.7666789.0-900.0Cardinals
AthleticsBrett Anderson17102.2262754.0-897.0White Sox
IndiansShane Bieber21101.3967728.0-869.0Twins
PiratesTrevor Williams14100.9258725.0-876.0Cubs
GiantsTyler Beede620.3875648.0-728.0Brewers
DodgersHyun Jin Ryu1562.171595.0-660.0Red Sox
TwinsJose Berrios19121.0361407.0-523.0Indians
PhilliesJake Arrieta18140.1356341.0-462.0Nationals
RockiesAntonio Senzatela1212-0.2950284.0-379.0Reds
RangersAriel Jurado78-0.64688.0-158.0Astros
MarlinsSandy Alcantara711-1.063850.0-165.0Mets
White SoxReynaldo Lopez1418-1.474334.0-231.0Athletics
NationalsAnibal Sanchez15150.575033.0-179.0Phillies
AngelsJose Suarez331.33508.0-65.0Mariners
RaysRyne Stanek23200.63532.0-174.0Orioles
PadresCal Quantrill251.1428-336.0305.0Braves
MarinersYusei Kikuchi811-0.6842-338.0276.0Angels
CardinalsAdam Wainwright79-0.6343-420.0350.0Diamondbacks
Blue JaysMarcus Stroman13160.0744-452.0327.0Yankees
BrewersJhoulys Chacin1317-1.2343-535.0421.0Giants
CubsJose Quintana1416-0.546-551.0431.0Pirates
TigersJordan Zimmermann716-1.0930-638.0541.0Royals
RoyalsHomer Bailey817-1.4432-711.0632.0Tigers
YankeesMasahiro Tanaka13140.5948-861.0695.0Blue Jays
AstrosJustin Verlander20141.0658-1020.0708.0Rangers
RedsTyler Mahle718-2.228-1055.0985.0Rockies
MetsJacob deGrom1218-0.3240-1365.01161.0Marlins
Athletics-------Yankees

 
adds...
  • 907 Arizona Diamondbacks -119
  • 915 Tampa Bay Rays -215
  • 915 Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles Over 10½ -110
 
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