July Bases

Having 2nd thoughts on Reds, Mahle not the same on the road. Reds are 0-10 when he starts away from home
Home or Away -- Game-Level Splits Mahle 2019
SplitWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO9SO/W
Home22.5003.6277000037.12816156170462001571.20511.12.71
Away07.0005.041010000055.16232311280532102321.2658.66.63

May have to get onboard with the Rox or at least depart the Cincy train???
 
mrpickem said:
Having 2nd thoughts on Reds, Mahle not the same on the road. Reds are 0-10 when he starts away from home
Home or Away -- Game-Level Splits Mahle 2019
SplitWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO9SO/W
Home22.5003.6277000037.12816156170462001571.20511.12.71
Away07.0005.041010000055.16232311280532102321.2658.66.63

May have to get onboard with the Rox or at least depart the Cincy train???
Click to expand...

Both teams poor record on Sunday.
Both pitchers pretty poor.

Day game in Colorado, quick turn around from last nite (errors?).

Looking like the Over is the safest play.
 
Mahle pitched at Chicago with Rehak the ump and got shelled 9H 6ER in 5inn box

Over is definitely an option even at 13'
 
When Wolcott refs, any fav over 150 is 28-3 last 3 years - Que ROYOS

line < -150 and HPU = Quinn Wolcott and season > 2016
SU:28-3 (2.77, 90.3%) avg line: -202.2 / 183.9 on / against: +$2,190 / -$2,242 ROI: +34.7% / -72.3%
RL:20-11 (1.27, 64.5%) avg line: -106.0 / -113.0 on / against: +$930 / -$1,251 ROI: +26.1% / -33.8%
OU:13-17-1 (0.79, 43.3%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$548 / +$295 ROI: -16.1% / +8.6%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team6.163.747.879.772.261.713.191.485.9714.136.740.942.393.94
Opp3.392.2310.618.191.480.972.160.771.6114.616.770.743.904.16
DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Apr 19, 2017boxWedhomeDodgersClayton Kershaw - LRockiesTyler Anderson - L4-22W-0.5U7-60-13-1-2906.59
May 24, 2019boxFrihomeRockiesJeff Hoffman - ROriolesJohn Means - L8-62W2.0O14-100-02-4-16512.09
Jun 02, 2019boxSunhomeBravesJulio Teheran - RTigersMatthew Boyd - L7-43W2.0O7-91-34-0-1609.09
Jun 19, 2019boxWedawayAstrosGerrit Cole - RRedsTyler Mahle - R2-3-1L-3.0U7-111-01-1-1808.09
Jul 14, 2019boxSunhomeRoyalsHomer Bailey - RTigersJordan Zimmermann - R-15710.0
Showing 1 to 32 of 32 entries
 
bailing on reds
  • 912 Colorado Rockies* -118 (this is just buying out, will pay juice)
  • 912 Colorado Rockies* Over 6½ -115
Team total at 6' seems more attractive than 13' for some reason??
 
Got 2 unders left in my bag. That should do it for me
  • 907 Arizona Diamondbacks/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7½ +102
  • 919 Minnesota Twins/Cleveland Indians Under 8½ -107
 
Ryu very good but not unhittable away
SplitWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO9SO/W
Home701.0000.8599011063.243106360630002350.7708.910.50
Away32.6002.9888000045.1461515740361001821.1037.19.00
and at night
SplitWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO9SO/W
Night72.7782.281212011075.0661919970641002900.9737.79.14
Day301.0000.5355000034.02362130350001270.7659.311.67


Price better at home
SplitWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO9SO/W
Home31.7503.0666000032.1281211170412111311.08211.45.86
Away41.8003.351010000051.04621196140540012081.1769.53.86
and at night he's not quite as good
SplitWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPSO9SO/W
Night41.8004.071111000055.15526255140612122311.2479.94.36
Day31.7501.6155000028.01975270340001080.92910.94.86


In the end it's hard to imagine Ryu not being a solid favorite the way he has pitched but this game is a lot closer...so it's probably lined about right

Nothing extra for me, just a standard unit
 
Last 10 games Sox have avg 7.7 rpg(league best) while allowing 4.6 with avg total of 10.9 / doyers avg only 4.6 and allow 6.5 with avg total 9.65

No doubt the doyers are slumping and sox starting to come around
 
YTD [646-566 +22.31u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [17-10 +3.83u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
Its mostly always better to be lucky than good and I got a nice helping of luck with the Doyers last night :clapping2:
  • 951 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -105
  • 951 Los Angeles Dodgers -167
  • 951 Los Angeles Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9½ -105
  • 954 Chicago Cubs -131
  • 955 Atlanta Braves -111
  • 958 St. Louis Cardinals -139
  • 962 New York Yankees -1½ +140
  • 962 New York Yankees -134
  • 963 Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox Over 10½ -115
  • 964 Boston Red Sox -184
  • 966 Cleveland Indians -1½ +100
  • 966 Cleveland Indians -175
  • 967 Chicago White Sox -120

View attachment 40859
TeamStarterW-L(marg%win)OnAgainstOpp
White SoxLucas Giolito21101.26671690.0-1864.0Royals
RockiesGerman Marquez22112.15661114.0-1257.0Giants
DodgersClayton Kershaw1982.4170537.0-637.0Phillies
CardinalsMiles Mikolas19130.559262.0-397.0Pirates
Red SoxRick Porcello19130.6659252.0-402.0Blue Jays
BravesMax Fried1390.9559223.0-309.0Brewers
RaysBlake Snell17110.7160222.0-407.0Yankees
GiantsDereck Rodriguez109-0.4252171.0-247.0Rockies
RedsLuis Castillo16140.85348.0-170.0Cubs
GiantsJeff Samardzija911-0.4545-8.0-82.0Rockies
CubsKyle Hendricks17130.4756-35.0-52.0Reds
AngelsGriffin Canning660.0850-40.0-15.0Astros
IndiansAdam Plutko651.1854-77.027.0Tigers
BrewersAdrian Houser23-2.440-225.0190.0Braves
Blue JaysSean Reid Foley13-1.025-295.0275.0Red Sox
PhilliesZach Eflin1316-0.2144-306.0208.0Dodgers
PiratesJoe Musgrove1317-1.2343-334.0228.0Cardinals
YankeesJames Paxton14110.3656-392.0236.0Rays
TigersDaniel Norris411-2.1326-605.0560.0Indians
RoyalsJakob Junis1021-1.5832-809.0715.0White Sox
AstrosJosh James------Angels
Rockies------Giants

 
adds
  • 969 Houston Astros -122
  • 971 San Francisco Giants +183
  • 971 San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies Over 13 -105
 
At -115 this line is scary low...why??
  • Giolito is 6-0 w/ a 2.13 ERA in his career vs the Royals
  • Giolito gave up 0 ERs w/ 11 Ks last time facing the Royals
  • The Royals are 0-4 in Junis' last 4 starts
Giolito has been tough on this royo lineup

View attachment 40865
 
I'm still intrigued by these overs and how easy they seem.

I ran a query with teams who have avg over 9 runs (their score + opp score) last 8 games and also their current opponent also avg over 9 runs (their score + opp score) last 8 games. Then I only considered games with totals of 10 or higher when both teams meet the listed criteria. Over 2 years with a sizable sample these games go over 58.3% of the time for a nice 11.3%ROI http://bit.ly/2YUQrFI

Games in LAA, CLE, and COL(1) all fit the bill today

tA(runs + o:runs,N=8) > 9 and oA(runs+o:runs,N=8) > 9 and season > 2017 and total >= 10
SU:199-199 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: -106.4 / -106.4 on / against: -$723 / -$723 ROI: -1.4% / -1.4%
RL:198-198 (0.00, 50.0%) avg line: -107.3 / -107.3 on / against: -$1,865 / -$1,865 ROI: -3.9% / -3.9%
OU:218-156-24 (1.56, 58.3%) avg total: 10.7 over / under: +$4,898 / -$8,486 ROI: +11.3% / -19.2%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team6.153.348.419.982.211.583.001.573.7514.596.730.933.474.50
Opp6.153.348.419.982.211.583.001.573.7514.596.730.933.474.50
 
Last edited:
That Dodgers 12th inning was like Christmas in July...

Had A Parlay with -1.5 and over and

Also hit a 5teamer with Tampa, ATL, Col Over, Doyers, Doyers over...


:cheers3:
 
Food for thought :crazy:

  • Finally getting decent price on the Yankees after huge chalk against Toronto this weekend. Snell is 1-5 with a 6.34 ERA in 10 career starts at Yankee Stadium. Paxton is 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA, in four career starts vs TB. NY rolling and looking to further extend their lead in the division, should get the win at home tonight.
  • Thornton and Porcello are on the mound tonight which usually means lots of runs. Thornton is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two career starts against BOS. Porcello is 10-12 with a 5.47 ERA vs TOR. Sox offense has been great lately and the total should cruise over tonight
  • Musgrove has gone 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA in 4 career starts vs SL, including 0-3 /10.20 ERA in 3 at Busch stadium. Lefties hit .295 against him. Righties have hit .259 off of Mikolas this year, while lefties have hit .301. He also has a 4-4 record with a 6.13 ERA in 15 games during the month of July. With all this and a total listed at 8, the Over may be worth a look.
 
It's amazing the difference between 1st and 2nd hald when playing the total. This is a simplified illustration.
List of all games lined at 9 sorted by year and AASB or BASB. Five straight years the over has shown profit before break while 2 of last 3 were profitable going under after the AllStar break.
View attachment 40881

For that reason, I'm going under in SL...I believe Mikolas can show up and Musgrove has been much better than shown vs Cards
 
adds...
  • 957 Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 +102
  • 959 San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies Over 14½ -103
  • 965 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians Over 10½ -108
  • 969 Houston Astros/Los Angeles Angels Over 9½ +105
​
 
YTD [660-572 +29.2u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [14-6 +6.89u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 901 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -125
  • 901 Los Angeles Dodgers -174
  • 904 Miami Marlins +111
  • 903 San Diego Padres/Miami Marlins Under 8 -108
  • 906 Chicago Cubs -125
  • 908 Milwaukee Brewers -154
  • 910 St. Louis Cardinals -170
  • 912 Colorado Rockies -125
  • 916 Boston Red Sox -1½ -110
  • 916 Boston Red Sox -184
  • 920 Kansas City Royals +114
  • 922 Oakland Athletics -162
  • 925 Washington Nationals -1½ -130
  • 925 Washington Nationals -184
  • 927 Arizona Diamondbacks +150
randoms...
Mets 25-7 over total on TUE last 3 years

team = Mets and day = Tuesday and A and season > 2016
SU:10-23 (-2.26, 30.3%) avg line: 127.2 / -140.0 on / against: -$1,014 / +$929 ROI: -26.9% / +18.5%
RL:13-21 (-1.56, 38.2%) avg line: -129.1 / 109.5 on / against: -$1,459 / +$1,099 ROI: -31.8% / +28.8%
OU:25-7-2 (3.59, 78.1%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: +$1,770 / -$2,027 ROI: +47.5% / -53.9%


NYY 26-12 RL vs teams with winning record this year +33.8% ROI

team = Yankees and o:WP > 50 and season > 2018
SU:26-13 (1.59, 66.7%) avg line: -119.3 / 108.7 on / against: +$1,254 / -$1,362 ROI: +25.0% / -30.9%
RL:26-12 (1.16, 68.4%) avg line: -105.9 / -114.2 on / against: +$1,590 / -$1,990 ROI: +33.8% / -40.4%
OU:21-17-0 (0.76, 55.3%) avg total: 9.1 over / under: +$215 / -$618 ROI: +5.1% / -14.8%


MIL 43-29 last 3 years vs teams with winning record after the break

team = Brewers and AASB and season > 2016 and o:WP > 50
SU:43-29 (0.57, 59.7%) avg line: 118.7 / -129.7 on / against: +$2,230 / -$2,585 ROI: +29.0% / -26.6%
RL:48-24 (1.36, 66.7%) avg line: -130.1 / 109.7 on / against: +$2,010 / -$2,565 ROI: +19.6% / -30.4%
OU:23-46-3 (-0.72, 33.3%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$2,720 / +$2,125 ROI: -34.2% / +26.9%
View attachment 40886
View attachment 40885

 
whoops, forgot my overs :rofl:
  • 901 Los Angeles Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9½ -110
  • 907 Atlanta Braves/Milwaukee Brewers Over 9½ +100
  • 915 Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox Over 11 -105
  • 921 Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Over 9½ +100
  • 925 Washington Nationals/Baltimore Orioles Over 11½ +110
  • 927 Arizona Diamondbacks/Texas Rangers Over 9½ -105
 
Rangers 31-19 @home this year
team = Rangers and H and season > 2018
SU:31-19 (0.52, 62.0%) avg line: 104.3 / -115.6 on / against: +$1,628 / -$1,892 ROI: +27.9% / -29.3%
RL:29-21 (0.76, 58.0%) avg line: -100.8 / -119.0 on / against: +$865 / -$1,320 ROI: +14.9% / -20.9%
OU:23-26-1 (0.44, 46.9%) avg total: 10.4 over / under: -$523 / +$19 ROI: -9.7% / +0.3%

View attachment 40890
 
Back on my "over" rant
we can see both before and after break are very profitable when using 2 teams that score and allow alot with higher totals
(last 8 games team runs + opp runs avg > 9.25 AND opponents last 8 games teams runs + opp runs avg > 9.25 AND total >= 10
View attachment 40892

AASB(After All Star Break) does show much better ROI at 13.2% over last 3 years although 1-2 yesterday
View attachment 40893 Games in KC and COL qualify today

I been playing all overs of 9 or more, but I'm rethinking it for 2nd half
Overs of 9 or more have went 19-11 this year since break so maybe the juicy ball is gonna trump all

View attachment 40895

Something I will closely monitor and likely play most until some serious regression shows itself
 
Leaning with you on most. SF looks auto to me though. Pomerananz is much bettter on 6 Plus has good history with Colorado. SF 9-5 on Tuesday to 6-8.
918 looked like a play to me then I saw the ump which ended that
 
Gonzalez 4-0 on 6+ 3.33 Thinking over and first half Seattle but maybe wait on ump as well
 
NOT SOLD ON THIS ONE, BUT THE PRICE IS RIGHT

ADD
  • 923 Houston Astros -113
  • 919 Chicago White Sox/Kansas City Royals Over 10½ -108
 
talking turkey:

  • Snakes +150 ??? Really, Young was lights out in his first two starts, and Rangers have some trouble with lefties. Zona pen is also top 10 in the bigs right now. Not sure how you don't play this one.
  • AZ/TEX F5 under 5.5 Young is good. already! 0.68 ERA in 13.1 IP. Since June 16, Rangers are 30th in the league vs LHP. Then Lance Lynn is 12-4 and his last start vs the DBacks he went 6 IP 1 ER. Rangers pen subject to trouble so I'm strongly considering this F5 play.
  • Red Sox -1.5 again tonight. I know this is Cashners first start as a Red Sox, but dude was 9-3 for the fukn O's. Sox traded for Cashner for them to be their guy (not Stroman, Bumgarner, or Boyd) so obviously they believe in him. Jays are 20th last 30 days vs RHP. In 2 Cashner starts with the Orioles vs the Blue Jays, he went 13 IP and 1 ER. Red Sox number 2 vs RHP. Pound the the Sox.
This just some random thoughts, I'm in on 20+ plays as usual and they are all 1u
 
more bs...
  • Rays +142 - Yankees are terrific, but this line doesn't give enough respect to a solid Rays squad, particularly with CC Sabathia running a 110 FIP- with his highest walk rate since 2001. Ryne Stanek and Jalen Beeks has been the most effective opener-bulk tandem for the Rays this year, as the latter has posted a 63 ERA-/79 FIP- despite having pretty mediocre stuff thanks to a deceptive delivery.
  • Marlins +105 - Yamamoto has been about as good as you could ask for through five career starts with a 1.24 ERA, 2.80 FIP and 27.0 K%, part of the reason the Marlins haven't played all that poorly over the past few weeks. Logan Allen is a good prospect with a decent 18 innings under his belt, but hasn't been on the level of Yamamoto, and the Padres look pretty bad coming out of the break.
  • Twins -158 - With Matz running a 118 ERA-/125 FIP- and the miserable Mets bullpen lying in wait, you'd figure the Twins and their 115 team wRC+ should put some runs up tonight. Michael Pineda has been roughly average, but is coming off a nice 6 inning, one run, 9 strikeout start against the Rangers. Twinks solid @home and if I had a 2u play this likely would be it
​
 
YTD [675-584 +30.53u] (11-4 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [15-12 +1.33u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

Managed a small profit on the night despite Jansen blowing save in Philly. This guy is not elite and every time out it's an adventure with him. Never quite understood all the accolades heaved on him??
  • 952 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +145
  • 952 St. Louis Cardinals -122
  • 953 Atlanta Braves +102
  • 956 Chicago Cubs -124
  • 957 San Francisco Giants +161
  • 957 San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies Over 13 -110
  • 959 Los Angeles Dodgers -143
  • 959 Los Angeles Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10½ +103
  • 961 San Diego Padres -148
  • 965 Tampa Bay Rays/New York Yankees Over 10 +100
  • 966 New York Yankees -150
  • 968 Boston Red Sox -1½ -130
  • 970 Cleveland Indians -1½ -130
  • 972 Kansas City Royals -125
  • 975 New York Mets/Minnesota Twins Over 10½ -110
  • 976 Minnesota Twins -161
  • 979 Arizona Diamondbacks -116
randoms...

NYY as away favorite 20-9 SU / 18-11 RL / 21-7 over
team = Yankees and AF and season > 2018
SU:20-9 (2.03, 69.0%) avg line: -160.1 / 146.7 on / against: +$727 / -$816 ROI: +15.7% / -28.1%
RL:18-11 (0.64, 62.1%) avg line: -106.6 / -113.8 on / against: +$810 / -$1,055 ROI: +23.4% / -29.5%
OU:21-7-1 (3.16, 75.0%) avg total: 9.3 over / under: +$1,328 / -$1,625 ROI: +41.7% / -50.8%

ATL 49-42 +30.2% ROI in road games vs teams with winning record last 3 years
team = Braves and o:WP > 50 and season > 2016 and A
SU:49-42 (0.12, 53.8%) avg line: 149.6 / -164.0 on / against: +$2,777 / -$3,398 ROI: +30.2% / -22.6%

DET 9-32 vs teams with winning record this year...fade for 20.5% ROI

BAL wins 29% at home, 25% as dog and 24% as home dog since last year
gamesSU
W - L (marg, %win)		Avg Lineo:Avg Line$ On$ AgainstOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)		Avg Total$ Over$ UnderSDQL
6616-50 (-2.18, 24.2%)154.0-169.2-$2,882+$2,70632-32-2 (0.92, 50.0%)9.4-$262-$295HD
13634-102 (-2.04, 25.0%)168.5-185.8-$5,061+$4,58765-66-5 (0.90, 49.6%)9.1-$749-$469D
8525-60 (-1.80, 29.4%)137.4-151.4-$3,221+$2,93540-42-3 (0.89, 48.8%)9.3-$557-$170H

LAA 39-24 vs right handed starters this year
team = Angels and o:STR and season > 2018
SU:36-27 (0.51, 57.1%) avg line: -105.1 / -105.6 on / against: +$1,040 / -$1,317 ROI: +13.8% / -17.5%
RL:39-24 (0.44, 61.9%) avg line: -106.9 / -113.3 on / against: +$1,510 / -$1,980 ROI: +19.1% / -24.4%
LAA 18-6 at home after a win this year
team = Angels and p:W and H and season > 2018
SU:18-6 (1.29, 75.0%) avg line: -128.0 / 117.9 on / against: +$1,105 / -$1,210 ROI: +34.7% / -46.9%
RL:17-7 (0.79, 70.8%) avg line: 106.0 / -126.2 on / against: +$1,290 / -$1,510 ROI: +46.5% / -46.6%
OU:9-14-1 (0.21, 39.1%) avg total: 9.3 over / under: -$592 / +$415 ROI: -22.7% / +15.5%


View attachment 40912

tumblr_psc3kcfF7S1w9iexs_400.gif




:cheers3:​
 
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