rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Honor us!
Jimmy Freaks....Lets hear your thoughts on the matchup
- Thread starter rambler882
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Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I'm honored that you would value my opinion.
2017 - 10
2016 - 0
2015 - 16
2014 - 13
2013 - 17
2012 - 17
2011 - 0
2011 - 9
These are LSU's point totals in the last 8 meetings, and I think it'll more of the same this time around. I know in years gone by, this was always considered a defensve slug-fest, and rightly so. But this season all the buzz coming into this game surrounds Tua Tagovailoa and the high-flying Bama offense. But I post the scores above so we don't forget how much of a struggle it has been for LSU's offense to score on a Nick Saban defense, and I think that struggle continues this Saturday night in Red stick.
If we credit LSU with 17 points in this match-up - in other words, if you knew for sure that LSU will score exactly 17 points - would you lay the 14.5 with Alabama? How good do you feel about Alabama scoring 32+ points? So how much confidence (translated to dollar bills) do you have that Tua and company will score 32 or more points? In terms of betting, I think that's where the rubber meets the road.
First of all, I can tell you with 100% certainty that inside the Alabama complex, they are looking to make a statement in this game, and when Saban is looking to make a statement, that's usually spells doom for the opposition.
But playing a game of this significance at night, in Baton Rouge, carries with it a certain "X Factor." Not only that, but Alabama will absolutely be facing the best defense Tua has seen all season, and certainly the best front 7. Can that front 7 shutdown the run and make Alabama one-dimensional? Can that front 7 harass Tua - who has thrown zero interceptions on the season - into making some crucial mistakes?
I actually think Alabama will counter with more running back dump-offs, and designed plays to the tight ends to attack the linebackers and safeties in pass coverage. It will also be interesting to see how Alabama's offensive line is able to deal with LSU's front 7, particularly in the passing game, where they have been solid all season.
Ultimately, I think we'll see very much of what we have come to expect from this match-up with - a brutal battle in the trenches - except with Alabama having an X-Factor of their own this time around - Tua Tagovailoa.
I still have no confidence in the ability of LSU's offense to score versus Alabama's defense. In the past, that has afforded Alabama's offense a lot of possessions that, in days gone by, they were not able to fully exploit. And while I do think we'll see Alabama's punter more than we are accustom to, I think that a Tua-lead offense will be more efficient, and able to convert more of those possessions into points.
I'm confident that Alabama will win the game and cover the spread. A tougher call for me is whether Tua will actually take a 4th quarter snap.
I think we see something like Alabama 42, LSU 10.
2017 - 10
2016 - 0
2015 - 16
2014 - 13
2013 - 17
2012 - 17
2011 - 0
2011 - 9
These are LSU's point totals in the last 8 meetings, and I think it'll more of the same this time around. I know in years gone by, this was always considered a defensve slug-fest, and rightly so. But this season all the buzz coming into this game surrounds Tua Tagovailoa and the high-flying Bama offense. But I post the scores above so we don't forget how much of a struggle it has been for LSU's offense to score on a Nick Saban defense, and I think that struggle continues this Saturday night in Red stick.
If we credit LSU with 17 points in this match-up - in other words, if you knew for sure that LSU will score exactly 17 points - would you lay the 14.5 with Alabama? How good do you feel about Alabama scoring 32+ points? So how much confidence (translated to dollar bills) do you have that Tua and company will score 32 or more points? In terms of betting, I think that's where the rubber meets the road.
First of all, I can tell you with 100% certainty that inside the Alabama complex, they are looking to make a statement in this game, and when Saban is looking to make a statement, that's usually spells doom for the opposition.
But playing a game of this significance at night, in Baton Rouge, carries with it a certain "X Factor." Not only that, but Alabama will absolutely be facing the best defense Tua has seen all season, and certainly the best front 7. Can that front 7 shutdown the run and make Alabama one-dimensional? Can that front 7 harass Tua - who has thrown zero interceptions on the season - into making some crucial mistakes?
I actually think Alabama will counter with more running back dump-offs, and designed plays to the tight ends to attack the linebackers and safeties in pass coverage. It will also be interesting to see how Alabama's offensive line is able to deal with LSU's front 7, particularly in the passing game, where they have been solid all season.
Ultimately, I think we'll see very much of what we have come to expect from this match-up with - a brutal battle in the trenches - except with Alabama having an X-Factor of their own this time around - Tua Tagovailoa.
I still have no confidence in the ability of LSU's offense to score versus Alabama's defense. In the past, that has afforded Alabama's offense a lot of possessions that, in days gone by, they were not able to fully exploit. And while I do think we'll see Alabama's punter more than we are accustom to, I think that a Tua-lead offense will be more efficient, and able to convert more of those possessions into points.
I'm confident that Alabama will win the game and cover the spread. A tougher call for me is whether Tua will actually take a 4th quarter snap.
I think we see something like Alabama 42, LSU 10.
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rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Love it! Thanks for the share
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
always good to hear your thoughts jimmy, especially when it comes to the tide.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
All the analysts are talking about is Tua vs the LSU defense, not much being said about LSU offense vs Alabama defense. LSU is really inefficient, and fairly pedestrian at QB, WR, RB and OL, which isn’t a great recipe against an Alabama defense. Bama DL vs LSU OL is biggest mismatch in game, I can’t see LSU having many, if any, sustained scoring drives, which I think they need to win. If you’re backing LSU,you have to be counting on the defense turning Alabama over enough to stay close, as well as hitting enough chunk plays (admittedly a weakness for Bama D) to score in the 30s. Personally, I don’t think LSU scores more than 17
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I agree 100%, which is why I began my response demonstrating how inept LSU's offense has been versus Alabama's defense over the past 10 meetings, or so.
I meant to come back in this thread and type a Xs and Os analysis, but just got too busy at the end of the week.
My very simple take, though, is that 34 Alabama points should be enough to bring home the bacon. I think Alabama gets, at the very least, in the 40s.
LSU's defense has not really been very effective at stopping the run this season. Accordingly, I think Alabama goes away from the downfield passing game a bit, and focuses more on attacking the linebackers in the running and passing game. I expect that Alabama's running backs and tight ends will get a lot of run in this game.
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Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I'm sorry I am posting this too late, but the only two games I am betting on today is Georgia -9 (-6), and Alabama -14.5 (-7.5). I would consider both the first half and game to be "Best Bets" in both games. I bet both for the game individually, and parlayed the two.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
If Tua’s knee is healthy enough that he and the coaches feel comfortable with him running it, it’s going to be really tough for LSU defense to maintain playing cover 1 all night. Just too many things to cover man 2 man. And if they go zone and can’t get to Tua quickly, we know what the result will be
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Tua has indicated that his knee is pretty much 100%, so I think that'll be a non-factor.
I was going to get into a more technical breakdown of this game, but LSU played both Florida and Georgia with a lot of cover 1, and Fromm and Franks were unable to take advantage of that scheme in the passing game. I would think Tua can.
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