DFS/Props Week 4

[ScopeY]

First off great thread, thanks for putting the time in @ScopeY

Regarding the Bills notes...

Diggs was in 70% because he was dealing with cramping. Gabe was in but was not healthy, was not getting separation and dropped a td pass. I would be careful with him. I'm more inclined to think Diggs blows up. Allen and him just have the connection, and off a rough outing I think both rebound. Gabe is a downfield long ball threat but Diggs does it from everywhere. I think Knox is my second favorite option for Bills players this week. Yes he's banged up but he's a huge part of the offense and he's been MIA. DFS I think he could be a sneaky good play

KnoX+225 td

Knox rec yds o28.5-114

2td+1700

Thank you and the buffalo insight is always appreciated!

 

[2daBank]

Wind 10-15 might be worth a point on the total but both QBs can run so I can't see much adjustment

I dunno man, just from looks of radar im guessing gonna be pretty crappy conditions. I been wrong before, like yesterday I thought same thing for BC game but turned out not bad. Don’t think that hurts Knox much, but worried bout Bateman amd as Lex said if it was nice out I’d be on bunch of guys in this game.

 

[KJ]

I dunno man, just from looks of radar im guessing gonna be pretty crappy conditions. I been wrong before, like yesterday I thought same thing for BC game but turned out not bad. Don’t think that hurts Knox much, but worried bout Bateman amd as Lex said if it was nice out I’d be on bunch of guys in this game.

At least you know names, that's ten steps ahead of me. Don't even know who Bateman is, sounds like a water boy

 

[Timh]

Baltimore Weather

Time	Conditions	Temp.	Feels Like	Precip	Amount	Cloud Cover	Dew Point	Humidity	Wind	Pressure
12:00 pm	Cloudy	57 °F	54 °F	24 %	0 in	100 %	53 °F	87 %	11 mph NNE	30.01 in
1:00 pm	Showers	57 °F	54 °F	46 %	0 in	100 %	54 °F	89 %	12 mph NNE	30.02 in
2:00 pm	Rain	57 °F	54 °F	94 %	0.05 in	100 %	53 °F	87 %	12 mph NNE	30.02 in
3:00 pm	Rain	57 °F	55 °F	77 %	0.08 in	100 %	53 °F	84 %	13 mph NNE	30.03 in
4:00 pm	Rain	57 °F	54 °F	93 %	0.04 in	100 %	52 °F	86 %	12 mph NNE	30.04 in

 

[2daBank]

At least you know names, that's ten steps ahead of me. Don't even know who Bateman is, sounds like a water boy

Lmao? Really? He was a beast in college for gophers. Drafted 2 years ago I think (maybe 3), reason they were ok trading Hollywood brown away. Think he was mostly hurt 1st year in league. I been all over him for breakout type year, wish he get more targets but he been smashing his yards every week. Little afraid today cause it mostly big plays for him thus far:. I think at @Lexington 125 correct bout bills trying to take Andrews away and hoping that leads to Bateman little more in the short game today.

 

[2daBank]

Baltimore Weather

Time	Conditions	Temp.	Feels Like	Precip	Amount	Cloud Cover	Dew Point	Humidity	Wind	Pressure
12:00 pm	Cloudy	57 °F	54 °F	24 %	0 in	100 %	53 °F	87 %	11 mph NNE	30.01 in
1:00 pm	Showers	57 °F	54 °F	46 %	0 in	100 %	54 °F	89 %	12 mph NNE	30.02 in
2:00 pm	Rain	57 °F	54 °F	94 %	0.05 in	100 %	53 °F	87 %	12 mph NNE	30.02 in
3:00 pm	Rain	57 °F	55 °F	77 %	0.08 in	100 %	53 °F	84 %	13 mph NNE	30.03 in
4:00 pm	Rain	57 °F	54 °F	93 %	0.04 in	100 %	52 °F	86 %	12 mph NNE	30.04 in

It just looks like yuck, they play on turf at least, I’m pretty sure?

 

[KJ]

Lmao? Really? He was a beast in college for gophers. Drafted 2 years ago I think (maybe 3), reason they were ok trading Hollywood brown away. Think he was mostly hurt 1st year in league. I been all over him for breakout type year, wish he get more targets but he been smashing his yards every week. Little afraid today cause it mostly big plays for him thus far:. I think at @Lexington 125 correct bout bills trying to take Andrews away and hoping that leads to Bateman little more in the short game today.

I don't play fantasy any more, I really enjoy not knowing these names lol

Information overload, felt like a one way ticket to Alzheimers. In one year and out the other Why I do situations and not x and o stuff

 

[Lexington 125]

Center Mitch Morse is in. Him out def cost the Bills 3 pts before half & likely the game. If he can stay in I think the Bills line will give Allen time.

Bills player props overrrrrrr



Poyer & Dane Jackson in- I don't think the Bills get beat by the long ball with Poyer back but who knows.

Oliver out but againthis d line has been effective....

 

[peelpub94]

Need 8 trequan smith yds lol… that’s it

 

[2daBank]

Kicking myself for not playing Cooper under, glad I weeded him out as a over option but he still the same jeckle and Hyde Mfer he always has been. Get him on the road vs a solid corner and he a total no show. Now when he goes back home after a nothing game he will show up and put numbers up next week.

 

[ScopeY]

1 PMs

D. Johnson Rec Yds O65.5 -115 3.45-3
M. Pittman Rec Yds O69.5 -125 3.75-3

D. London Receptions O4.5 -130 2.6-2 (almost played the pitts one until I saw they were virtually the same)

K. Herbert Rush&Rec Yds O90.5 -115 1.15-1
JD McKissic Receptions O3.5 +115 1-1.15
Q. Cephus Rec Yds O25.5 -110 1.1-1

4 PMs

C. Sutton Rec Yds O68.5 -115 3.45-3

Z. Ertz Rec Yds O39.5 -115 2.3-2

D. Waller Receptions O4.5 -155 1.55-1
D. Harris Rush Yds O49.5 -110 1.1-1

Jesus this was bad again.

Diontae doinked 1, and then almost had that 20+ yard td catched... but 4 targets aint going to cut it.
Pittman had 6 targets, but was shocked he didnt end up with more as they played from behind all game.
London led the team in targets (6) but they only threw the ball 19 times (7 completions) ugh.
Herbert worked out, but it was still a sweat.. somehow got it late in the 4th when down 8.
Down 8, near the end of the 3rd is when McKissic got his first catch.... prior to that, they ran it with him 8 times (shocking) and gibson had all the targets. Still got 1 away from cashing.
Not sure when it happened, but Cephus got hurt sometime at the end of the 2nd into the 3rd..... in a game that had 93 total points, I'd think he would have gotten 11 more yards. Detroit was down the whole time too.
After the early drives, sutton was completely ignored until the last one. Ugh. Still a good DFS production day from him though with 16.2 points.
Ertz was good, and got there before the end of their 2nd half opening drive.
Harris was the easiest one of the day, and Stevenson scared me into not doing more (both hit there yardage).

- I definitely need to load up on games that I like, as Penny/Metcalf/Hockenson were all players I liked (and had in DFS), but didn't touch the props. Same with Ekeler/Pierce, Chubb/DPJ (and even a little bit of Njoku), Lamb, etc.

Another thing of note, there were 8 RBs in the top 10 of ALY push in the mainslate.

Pats were #1, finished with 32 carries for 152 yards, 4.75 YPC. (to go with 6 RB targets). Neutral Gamescript.
Atl was #2, finished with 30 carries for 199 yards, 6.63 YPC. (to go with 1 RB target). Neutral Gamescript.
Lions were #3, finished with 23 carries for 141 yards, 6.13 YPC. (to go with 6 RB targets). Negative Gamescript.
Bears were #4, finished with 25 carries for 97 yards, 3.88 YPC. (to go with 4 RB targets). Neutral to Negative Gamescript, but also 1 dimensional.

Raiders were #7, finished with 32 carries for 168 yards, 5.25 YPC. (to go with 6 RB targets). Neutral to Positive Gamescript.
Cowboys #8, finished with 27 carries for 55 yards, 2.04 YPC. (to go with 5 RB targets). Neutral to Positive Gamescript.
Panthers #9, finished with 9 carries for 29 yards, 3.22 YPC. (to go with 9 RB targets). Neutral to Negative Gamescript.
Browns #10, finished with 29 carries for 167 yards, 5.76 YPC. (to go with 6 RB targets). Neutral Gamescript.

Only 2 real duds there, being the cowboys, and the panthers. But all 9 of the rb targets went to CMC, so he isn't actually a dud. Everyone of these teams backs scored atleast a TD too minus the bears.

There were 7 defenses in the MS that were top 10 in ASR.

Cowboys were #1, finished 7th overall. (and paired fine with Zeke) Positive game script.
Giants were #2, finished 1st overall. (and paired well with Barkley) Positive game script.
Bears were #3, finished 18th overall. (and paired ok with Herbert) Negative game script.
Bills were #5, and finished 13th overall. (didn't pair to well, but Singletary finished 22nd overall, but 2 things here, the weather hampered throws for both teams (limiting defensive opportunity, and Allen steals a lot with his legs too)) Oh, we also had a negative game script.)

Pats were #6, finished 5th overall. (and paired well with Harris) Neutral game script
Titans were #7, finished 8th overall. (and paired well with Henry), Positive game script.
Broncos were #10, finished 26th overall. (and didn't pair well with the backs). Neutral to negative game script.

 

[texsn95]

Anything for tonight?

 

[ScopeY]

forgot to update

3-9 -15.65
6-10 -12.55 on the week.

LAR/SFO

Rams have a bad P/RB matchup.
49ers have a good P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Stafford has a bad ASR matchup. Akers? has a bad ALY matchup.
Wilson has a meh ALY matchup.
Pace of play is 16th /16.

Injuries - LAR - On OL, will be without C Allen for 3rd straight week, and now G Edwards for first week. On D, will be without CBs Durant and Long for 2nd week.
- SFO - On OL, will be without T Williams, huge blow. On D, no LB Al-Shaair.

- Rams are in a true 5050 split, but Akers has steadily rose his snap %, both in wins, over week 1's loss. Henderson the exact opposite. I don't think I'll have any, I personally think SFO wins, and that leaves me leaning towards henderson if any of the 2 backs here... I'm not saying I like it, but I think 90% of the community will be taking Akers over henderson here, so give me the suppressed ownership, and cheaper price if I have to decide. Higbee has the best snap count among all TES at 97%, he's received 24% of the teams target share, averaging 8 targets a game. I already talked about how I think they play from behind too.... but in either scenario, he's out there, and has been given 4 RZ targets too. Sign me up. The rams run 3 WR sets a lot. Kupp > Robinson > Skorronek snap count last week was 100, 92, 85%, this is roughly the season averages too. I won't ever talk anyone off Kupp, if you can fit him, you play him... he has a 34.7% target share on this team (#1 in the league), 35 total targets through 3 weeks, and he gets RZ targets too, 6. You can take Skowronek if you want, but Arob will be the cheaper WR I like here, they have the same target share really, and his comes at a much better aDOT/r of 9.1 as opposed to 5.1 for Skowronek... oh and 1 has the same amount of RZ targets as kupp (6 - robinson), the other has 0. No thanks.
- 9ers finally saw Wilsons snap count rise to 73% with no mitchell OR davis-price to take away from him. Just Deebo. I think Garop helped(s) this offense despite scoring 10 points vs denver. My biggest issue with last week was that he was handed the ball just 12 times, I think that might be his lowest number of the year (in games where he is the starter), and he still ended up with 75 yards on the ground. He was also utilized in the passing game with 3 targets, and finished with 106 total yards. I think has the safest floor today minus Kupp, and has td equity which could vault him higher. Yes Please. I mentioned Higbee being the #1 TE in snaps, well Kittle had his first game last week, and finished with a 91% snap count, which would put him at 3rd overall. That's encouraging that he was able to put that much playing time in off injury, he had 5 targets (1 RZ), good for 17.2% target share, and no other TE was even out there last week. I have no problem using him again. I know deebo is mr. sexy as he's been flashy the last year or two, but I don't see his rushing upside to be great here, and he has practically the same target share as Aiyuk, but a terrible shallow reception depth. His aDOT/r is 3.4, Aiyuks is 8.8. With Garop last week, they both did have 8 targets, and roughly the same aDOT/r, but I'll go with the guy I think will have lower ownership, when the 2 players are virtually the same. 1 last note, Aiyuk's playing time is roughly 10% better than deebo. Jennings/Juscyzk are punts that if they score can make your lineup a winner. Jennings I'll probably pass on, as he's the WR3, capped at 50% playing time, and doesn't have agood aDOT/r. Jusyczk is cheap, he's out there more, and you know he's good for a catch or carry where it matters, the redzone, but know, he may put up a 0 too.

J. Wilson Rush&Rec Yds O73.5 -115 2.3-2
T. Higbee Receptions O4.5 +100 2-2

A. Rob Longest Reception O18.5 -105 1.05-1
B. Aiyuk Longest Reception O21.5 -125 1.25-1

 

[ScopeY]

Just updating...will have the format for week 5 up tomorrow.

2-2 +1.7
8-12 -10.85

Solid DFS day as we nailed it all minus being underweight on deebo. If kitties gets that TD it would have made my night

Onto week 5!