It's here...The Masters

[gps_3]

Probably my favorite sporting event every year. If you have the chance to go, do it. Unbelievable experience, you won't regret it, outside of how much money you can drop in the pro shop.

A lot of different wagers available to me this week, as my local only has props on the majors. So I will look into top 10, top 20, top (insert country here), etc. Like every week, I start with choosing my player for the one and done. I'm in the best position I've ever been at this point in my pool (43 out of 600), want to keep it going. Usually, I have pretty much decided who I'm taking by now, but there are so many seemingly great options this year. My list includes: DJ, JT, Spieth, Rose, Rory, Tiger, and Paul Casey. Had been leaning Rose all year, but I like the way Spieth is playing. Also think DJ is flying a bit under the radar.

Looking forward to some good discussion

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

I am gonna copy and paste the A.T. Keys to the Masters (so-to-speak).


*these were heading into 2016

 

[B.A.R.]

The rules I follow I stick to. Sure there are exceptions (Spieth in nearly every category last year), but if they are followed you are ahead.
Firstly, it’s hard to go back to back. It’s only been done 3 times – Jack 65-66, Faldo 89-90 and Eldrick 01-02. There’s a lot of 6/1 – 7/1 available on Speith. Cannot have that at all. Sure he has finished 1st and 2nd the past 2 years, but the price isn’t there. This time last year he was more than double the price and was off back-to-back tournament wins. There is a lot do in Masters week – media, hosting, etc. – and many champs have said it is draining (Bubba L4Y - 1st-50th-1st-38th). For this reason I cannot have the lad.
Course experience is the key. Guys like Phil, Fred Couples, Angel Carbrera, Miguel Angel Jimenez pop up every year. Lee Westwood has 4 top 10's the last 6 years. Over the past 35 years the average first time winner has played the event at least 6 times. Schwarzel and Zach Johnson won on their third and Spieth his second. I prefer to look for guys playing at least their fifth.

While course experience is key, previous years form isn't. Only half of the last 12 winners finished in the top 10 the previous year. All 11 previous winners, however, have made the previous year’s cut, 8 of the past 11 winners had shot 67 or better at least once, 23 of the last 25 had shot in the 60's. Additionally, all previous 11 winners had finished in the top 32 at some time.

Augusta is long, and looking at some of the winners many think length is the key. If that was the case then Henrik Stenson and Dustin Johnson will have more than 1 top 10 between them, and Miguel Angel Jimenez wouldn't have 4. The fairways are generous, and putting and scrambling are key. Where length plays a part is in the par 5's that decide it. Zach Johnson was 57th in driving distance, but top 10 in Par 5's. He went -11 on the Par 5's, +12 on the Par 3's. Phil went -13 on the 5's and +6 on the 3's in one of his wins. Last year Speith went -12 on Par 5's. The past 12 years the winners score has been
Par 3s -1
Par 4s -25
Par5s -102




Nearly every player this century has finished top 10 in GIR. The average position is around 6.7.




Next is guys who won are winners. All had at least 3 wins on the US or Euro Tour before they won, and all had won once in the preceding 12 months. Over the past 7 years, only Spieth and Bubba won in that calendar year.

 

[B.A.R.]

That is a good way to get a short list that he posted about 27 months ago.... for reference....

Weather looks solid...

Hot first few days

Some rain, cooler and dry.

Hot n miss rain Saturday.

 

[KJ]

Have had an inkling that this year will see a first time winner, very much think Justin Rose and/or DJ will be wagered

 

[B.A.R.]

You might just be right. It does kinda feel like Rose redemption. With that bring said ... I love my early future being so under the radar because he hasn't played much lately...Jon Rahm... Keep emotions in check he's gonna be there on the weekend.

 

[ProV1Colt]

BAR is on Rahm...... Well mark it down. Not need to play it out

 

[gps_3]

Forgot to add Bubba to my short list.

Saw a tweet yesterday that the last 7 winners were all in the top 7 in SG: Tee to green entering the tournament. This year's top 7: Sergio, Casey, Spieth, DJ, Fleetwood, JT, Adam Scott

I think iron play is the most important, thus the GIR stat from above. Though, it's all about where you putt from vs being a great putter.

 

[ProV1Colt]

Here was a post from A.T


All 12 of the previous winners made the cut the previous year

7 of the past 12 winners had shot 67 or better at least once, and 23 of the past 25 had shot in the 60’s.

The past 12 winner had all finished in the top 38 at least once before, and 9 had finished top 20

Only 6 of the last 13 finished top 10 the year before

Each of the last 12 winners had won at least 3 times on the US or European Tour, and all had won in the 12 months prior. On 3 had won that calendar year. However, 11 of the 12 had finished in the top 10 at least once that calendar year.

10 of the last 12 were ranked in the world top 30, and 8 were in the top 20.
(List Below in next post)

The last world #1 to win was Eldrick in 2005

 

[ProV1Colt]

Current Top 20



Top 30

 

[ProV1Colt]

Have won in the Past 12 months & Top 30
Sergio Garcia (back to back?)
Brian Harman
Kevin Kisner
Brooks Koepka
Jordan Spieth x2
Xander Schauffele x2
Hideki Matsuyama
*Justin Thomas x4
Henrik Stenson
*Dustin Johnson x2
Marc Leishman
*Pat Perez
*Justin Rose
*Rickie Fowler
*Jon Rahm
*Jason Day
*Bubba Watson x2
*Phil Mickelson
*Paul Casey
*Rory McIlroy
*Ian Poulter


*Calendar Year 2018 winners from above

 

[gps_3]

I don't think Tiger will win, but I find myself wanting to pick him in all formats I'm participating in this week, so that if he does win, I can say I picked him. And if he's in contention, I want to be all in on rooting for him

 

[ProV1Colt]

Finished Top 10 in 2017 Masters and on List above
Sergio Garcia
*Justin Rose
*Paul Casey
*Rory McIlroy

 

[gps_3]

Great Tiger article:

https://www.sbnation.com/golf/2018/...ters-tiger-woods-comeback-at-augusta-national

 

[ProV1Colt]

Hopefully this info is helping some....

 

[ProV1Colt]

gps.... if you have BOL, check out all the Tiger props. They are great

 

[BringInTheLefty]

Past 4 year finishes in the Masters:

Jordan Spieth 11 2 1 2
Justin Thomas 22 39
Rory McIlroy 7 10 4 8
Dustin Johnson 2017 DNP 4 6 mc
Justin Rose 2 10 2 14
Tiger Woods 2016, 2017 DNP 17 2015 DNP
Bubba Watson mc 37 38 1
Sergio Garcia 1 34 17 mc
Jason Day 22 10 28 20
Jon Rahm 27
Phil Mickelson 22 mc 2 mc
Rickie Fowler 11 mc 12 5
Paul Casey 6 4 6 2014 DNP
Hideki Matsuyama 11 7 5 mc
Henrik Stenson mc 24 19 14
Patrick Reed mc 49 22 mc
Alex Noren mc
Tommy Fleetwood mc

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/980872408138698753

 

[gps_3]

http://www.golfwrx.com/483678/the-24-players-who-can-win-the-2018-masters/

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/980900746114641920

 

[KJ]

Meow

 

[gps_3]

Tiger playing with Phil in a practice round tomorrow. This needs to be televised while they wear mics

 

[KJ]

They're besties now

 

[B.A.R.]

Tiger playing with Phil in a practice round tomorrow. This needs to be televised while they wear mics

What!?!?

I think I have seen it all now.

 

[B.A.R.]

That group was teeing off at 830 today. Tiger tracker said he'd check in at the turn (no phones).

 

[KJ]

Live updates

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/981150810896764928

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/981150443765141504

 

[KJ]

Oh today's the day aplous is out there, wonder if he's hammered yet

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/981151749686874112

 

[B.A.R.]

Tiger is + money in every matchup I've seen so far.

 

[gps_3]

Saw a couple I liked last night:

DeChambeau +115 vs Cantlay
Chappell -125 vs Cam Smith

 

[KJ]

Like Chappell, guess it's time to fire up a thread

 

[gps_3]

Chappell is 8th in SG: tee to green this year

 

[KJ]

Took him top 10/20

 

[ProV1Colt]

I would have paid $800 to see Tiger & Phil play a round today
I bet my buddy is kicking himself for selling all 4 of his Tuesday tickets he won in the lottery today
he did sell them for $800 ea though

 

[gps_3]

Not only are they in the same group, but Tiger and Phil are partners in the money game they are playing against Couples and Pieters. Tiger eagled 13

 

[gps_3]

Added some matchups. Haven't even gotten into props yet. This is either going to be epic or a disaster.

Spieth -110 vs Rory
Rose +105 vs Rory
Day -120 vs Rickie
Phil -105 vs Bubba
Day -105 vs Bubba
Casey -120 vs Rahm
Casey -110 vs Rickie
Kuchar -105 vs Fleetwood
Oosthuizen -105 vs Poulter
Moore -105 vs Henley
Berger -125 vs Schwartzel

 

[ProV1Colt]

let go with those Tee Times....
post em

 

[KJ]

No working this week

 

[gps_3]

I'm done for the week Thursday at 3 CDT. Hope my wife doesn't expect me to be of any use with the kids or around the house

 

[ProV1Colt]

WAIT a second.... are we getting a glimpse of a Tiger/Phil Ryder Cup Team pairing???

 

[ProV1Colt]

I'm done for the week Thursday at 3 CDT. Hope my wife doesn't expect me to be of any use with the kids or around the house

I am trying to. Once these Tee times come out, I am going to either watch at work Thur/ Fri if Tiger isn't on live TV or leave work at noon Thur/Fri

 

[KJ]

Got soccer today and meeting up with group tomorrow at pub for lunch-City match so week is shot

 

[B.A.R.]

Tiger Eagled both 13 and 15.

 

[B.A.R.]

10:42. Tiger-Fleetwood-Leishman

 

[B.A.R.]

1:27 Phil-Rickie-Kuch

 

[B.A.R.]

1:38. Scott-Rory-Rahm

 

[KJ]

Good Thur morning and Fri afternoon

That 2nd group, wouldn't mind avoiding them all lol