Interesting Alabama Trend

S

SoonerBS

Guest
This comes from Bruce Feldman's BLOG:

The Web is a great place of find some quirky stuff, and on Sunday longtime Alabama writer Cecil Hurt delivers his reasoning about how to predict what kind of season the Crimson Tide will have in 2006:


"There is a time for objectivity, though, even when people don't like to hear it. And that includes an objective look at whether Alabama can overcome what has been, over the past decade, the most reliable projector of what the Tide's record will be. That's not Phil Steele or The Sporting News, not ESPN or the Associated Press poll. It's certainly not Cecil Hurt, and it almost certainly isn't any person out there reading this, either.

"It's something called the Three-Year Cycle. The Great Roller-Coaster Ride. The NCAA Curse. Call it whatever you want, but take one look at the record books and it stares right back at you. Starting in 1996, a pattern has been established, and has continued like clockwork ever since. Starting with that 10-win season, Alabama has followed every 10-win season -- 1996, 1999 and 2002 -- with a catastrophic losing season in the following year. That has been followed with a season just over the .500 mark, then a 10-win season and then the cycle has started over again.

"As the cycle began, I paid no attention to it. When it recurred in 2000, 2001 and 2002, I did notice it. When it recurred in 2003, it became hard to ignore. In 2004, it predicted Alabama would go 6-5 in the regular season, which it did. In 2005, it predicted that Alabama would win 10 games -- right again."
My guess, I mean, theory on it? This kind of phenomenon would be more fitting of a program like Boston College or TCU, where every few years they can make a run at the top 10 because they get young talent that plays early and takes some lumps. Those kids continue to grow together and -- voila!-- you have a seasoned bunch. Trouble is, after that group exits together, the bottom drops out and the cycle begins again. Wisconsin sort of has a pattern like that, only it's a bit steadier. Maybe the NCAA probation and the scholarship crunch not to mention all the coaching shifts have reduced the Tide to this status.
 
That last sentence pretty much sums up this article...Get all but the "Death" penalty and still be competitive...Two coaches within 3 months....
Loose your whole backfield one year...
We do have Ark-Tenn-LSU OTR this year...Aubby @ home(where we can't beat them)<g>....New crop of DB's...New QB, which I'm proud to say.... My only problem with Shula is that he is calling the offense. He could'nt do it at Tampa and it still continues today....Look for more of a roll out QB in JP Wilson....Something Brodie dare not do....Could'nt....

We'll see....Friends daughter attends UA and said she talked to a couple of the players, asking how they will do...His reply....Better than people think...

FADE:cheers:
 
Good to see you around, Fade!!
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pags

Waiting patiencely on football season:drinking: Makes me sick to think some of these "Rednecks" are ready to "Can" my boy Mike......
How bout the SEC.....3 teams in the top 10.....I kinda like them starting the Tide out at #24, 25 in coaches poll and like, what, 34 in AP?? Should be a interesting year to say the least.....
 
Shula is a bum.. I went to bama for 2 years check Bamas schedule last year, they beat Florida and Tenn both who were down, but the 2 games they had to win they got beaten
 
Hawaii is going to come close to beating Alabama...I am pounding the shit out of the Rainbow boys in this one.
 
MistaFlava said:
Hawaii is going to come close to beating Alabama...I am pounding the shit out of the Rainbow boys in this one.


only if FADE says so. Fademenow is the king of SEC football wagering. lines move after he finishes typing!! :money2:
 
Tarheel Brn&Bred said:
only if FADE says so. Fademenow is the king of SEC football wagering. lines move after he finishes typing!! :money2:


Hello Fade and Tarheel.

I'll be waiting for your posts on the SEC :shake:
 
abcs....We've had 2 years of "FULL" schlorships..chill, bro....:spank:

Mista.....I've read up on this Rainbow team..Suppose to be one of the most high octane offense's in the country....With the new DB's, they could come close...This does concern me...Pick to come later:wacka wacka:

Tarheel..That's funnymoney; I would'nt go that far...... Stick to what I know best...

G-Man.....Good to see ya around, bro.......:cheers:
 
Fade - How many wins do you think Alabama will have on the season? One of our members asked me that for a season total play, and I told him to PM you and ask...

But I'm curious myself.
 
Fondy....New QB along with all the new guys on D....Cupcake home schedule....All but Aubbie....At LSU, Tenn & Arky...Fla.....I've got confidence in JP. Just hope the "O" line can give him the time he will need....My pick would be 9 wins....
 
FADEMENOW said:
Fondy....New QB along with all the new guys on D....Cupcake home schedule....All but Aubbie....At LSU, Tenn & Arky...Fla.....I've got confidence in JP. Just hope the "O" line can give him the time he will need....My pick would be 9 wins....

You see a minimum then of 8 wins then at least... how big of a possibility is 7 wins or less in your mine (season total is at 8 wins)?
 
Fondy......

Well, that is what this thread is all about...Bama going 6-5...I don't buy into it.... Like I've said before, we damn near got the death penalty....
Most likely lose the LSU....even though we play them tough there...Florida..Aubbie and Cox will be better this year(damn, I hate saying that)....I'm not sold onTenn, as of yet....
I guess 8 would be a push.....If, and a big "IF", Tyrone goes this year(which they don't have him listed and may get another year)I would say that would help big time..Only 17 seniors listed on this team....You saw the few games JP played in LY...The kid is a roll out type QB and has got a gun on him....Has he got anybody who can catch it?.....We'll see....I've alway thought to beat Bama's D, you have got to throw the ball to open up the running game...Look at the Arky game LY and that did'nt apply...They wore the right side of the D line out....LSU came back in the 2nd half and threw the ball. We just did'nt have the O to score points....Brodie played every down as he was HURT, and he was...

8 wins, yes......

FADE
 
SoonerBS.....

This is the "OLE" denny, is it not????? I've got the CRS syndrome....
Hope all is going well wiz za, bro!!!!!
 
FADEMENOW said:
This is the "OLE" denny, is it not????? I've got the CRS syndrome....
Hope all is going well wiz za, bro!!!!!

Yes, it is, and I'm proud to say I'm here exclusively full time!!
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I think I read alittle about your departure from the other place.....Have
you heard from our boy(see I told u about CRS), redneck writer from Arkansas...damn, what is his name...Oh yea, RAZOR????????
 
FADEMENOW said:
I think I read alittle about your departure from the other place.....Have
you heard from our boy(see I told u about CRS), redneck writer from Arkansas...damn, what is his name...Oh yea, RAZOR????????

Razor's getting married!! (If he hasn't already.) I need to give him a call . . . .
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FADE...I heard only good things about you man. Can't wait to see what side you are on for the game because I am dropping some massive cash on Hawaii to cover the spread. The number is way too high in my opinion. I will release a writeup on the game next week but for now all I can say is that Colt Brennan is going to make a name for himself early in this season.

Good luck bro
 
mista when are you dropping this cash should i go grab my hawaii +17 now???
 
NickFazekas said:
mista when are you dropping this cash should i go grab my hawaii +17 now???

Well I am reluctant to place any bets now. As we saw with Oklahoma, anything can happen this early on. My bets are always made inside the 1-2 week period before the first week so I will wait a bit to pound my plays.

Got any thoughts on the game?
 
I definitly agree with the consensus Hawaii is going to be a very exciting team, their offense +17 catching bama early should be a winner. However, as anybody who has followed Hawaii knows no matter what sport it is they STINK on the road so that would be my only concern. Bama is a long way from hawaii but this is also probably the most talented hawaii team in any sport in recent memory in my eyes.
 
Nick......

Could'nt have said it better, myself....That is the big "IF"....
I'll tell ya now, when I saw the line, I thought it was a big number for Bama to cover. Bama is not by no means, a covering machine....
 
my gut would say they are a better team and screw history go Hawaii all they way. June Jones +17 to Shula i dont give a damn where this game is played with the talent Hawaii has.
 
MistaFlava said:
FADE...I heard only good things about you man. Can't wait to see what side you are on for the game because I am dropping some massive cash on Hawaii to cover the spread. The number is way too high in my opinion. I will release a writeup on the game next week but for now all I can say is that Colt Brennan is going to make a name for himself early in this season.

Good luck bro

Check post before this one to Nick....More than likely, I'll be right there at the window on the same team with ya.....Just not "Massive", as I hate to drop alot when agan my Tide:hairout: Have'nt looked into many games as of yet....Still a few weeks to check things out and see what happens...
Changed my line of thinking LY and hope it was'nt a flukemoney;
 
NickFazekas said:
my gut would say they are a better team and screw history go Hawaii all they way. June Jones +17 to Shula i dont give a damn where this game is played with the talent Hawaii has.

We do tend to let "History" fog our minds sometimes:cheers:
 
Talent wont win you games in college but experience will. This team played USC last year so they have already seen the ultimate, come this time around if they can't hang within 17 of bama who lost brodie croyle then theyve made no progress.
 
you definitly have a MUCH greater chance of cashing this bet than you did if you took Boise St at Georgia last year and that spread was only 7.
 
NickFazekas said:
my gut would say they are a better team and screw history go Hawaii all they way. June Jones +17 to Shula i dont give a damn where this game is played with the talent Hawaii has.


There is also a psychological advantage of knowing that they beat Bama at home a couple years ago on the final game of the year and that Colt Brennan was around back in those days.
 
MistaFlava
thats true but how do you put a value on that? To me thats kind of the same as saying the red sox have to win and wont get swept by the royals. Its different teams, different venues. The best team that executes is going to win I usually dont look as much into revenge and other stuff but that win can't hurt right?:shake:
 
NickFazekas said:
MistaFlava
thats true but how do you put a value on that? To me thats kind of the same as saying the red sox have to win and wont get swept by the royals. Its different teams, different venues. The best team that executes is going to win I usually dont look as much into revenge and other stuff but that win can't hurt right?:shake:


doesn't influence my selection but it was just a small tidbit of information
 
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