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This comes from Bruce Feldman's BLOG:
The Web is a great place of find some quirky stuff, and on Sunday longtime Alabama writer Cecil Hurt delivers his reasoning about how to predict what kind of season the Crimson Tide will have in 2006:
"There is a time for objectivity, though, even when people don't like to hear it. And that includes an objective look at whether Alabama can overcome what has been, over the past decade, the most reliable projector of what the Tide's record will be. That's not Phil Steele or The Sporting News, not ESPN or the Associated Press poll. It's certainly not Cecil Hurt, and it almost certainly isn't any person out there reading this, either.
"It's something called the Three-Year Cycle. The Great Roller-Coaster Ride. The NCAA Curse. Call it whatever you want, but take one look at the record books and it stares right back at you. Starting in 1996, a pattern has been established, and has continued like clockwork ever since. Starting with that 10-win season, Alabama has followed every 10-win season -- 1996, 1999 and 2002 -- with a catastrophic losing season in the following year. That has been followed with a season just over the .500 mark, then a 10-win season and then the cycle has started over again.
"As the cycle began, I paid no attention to it. When it recurred in 2000, 2001 and 2002, I did notice it. When it recurred in 2003, it became hard to ignore. In 2004, it predicted Alabama would go 6-5 in the regular season, which it did. In 2005, it predicted that Alabama would win 10 games -- right again."
My guess, I mean, theory on it? This kind of phenomenon would be more fitting of a program like Boston College or TCU, where every few years they can make a run at the top 10 because they get young talent that plays early and takes some lumps. Those kids continue to grow together and -- voila!-- you have a seasoned bunch. Trouble is, after that group exits together, the bottom drops out and the cycle begins again. Wisconsin sort of has a pattern like that, only it's a bit steadier. Maybe the NCAA probation and the scholarship crunch not to mention all the coaching shifts have reduced the Tide to this status.
The Web is a great place of find some quirky stuff, and on Sunday longtime Alabama writer Cecil Hurt delivers his reasoning about how to predict what kind of season the Crimson Tide will have in 2006:
"There is a time for objectivity, though, even when people don't like to hear it. And that includes an objective look at whether Alabama can overcome what has been, over the past decade, the most reliable projector of what the Tide's record will be. That's not Phil Steele or The Sporting News, not ESPN or the Associated Press poll. It's certainly not Cecil Hurt, and it almost certainly isn't any person out there reading this, either.
"It's something called the Three-Year Cycle. The Great Roller-Coaster Ride. The NCAA Curse. Call it whatever you want, but take one look at the record books and it stares right back at you. Starting in 1996, a pattern has been established, and has continued like clockwork ever since. Starting with that 10-win season, Alabama has followed every 10-win season -- 1996, 1999 and 2002 -- with a catastrophic losing season in the following year. That has been followed with a season just over the .500 mark, then a 10-win season and then the cycle has started over again.
"As the cycle began, I paid no attention to it. When it recurred in 2000, 2001 and 2002, I did notice it. When it recurred in 2003, it became hard to ignore. In 2004, it predicted Alabama would go 6-5 in the regular season, which it did. In 2005, it predicted that Alabama would win 10 games -- right again."
My guess, I mean, theory on it? This kind of phenomenon would be more fitting of a program like Boston College or TCU, where every few years they can make a run at the top 10 because they get young talent that plays early and takes some lumps. Those kids continue to grow together and -- voila!-- you have a seasoned bunch. Trouble is, after that group exits together, the bottom drops out and the cycle begins again. Wisconsin sort of has a pattern like that, only it's a bit steadier. Maybe the NCAA probation and the scholarship crunch not to mention all the coaching shifts have reduced the Tide to this status.
