Hulu's WNBA 2020
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#3DownNation
Really don't understand Phoenix. With their injury situation and tough scheduling they had no business winning the past few games but they just keep doing it. They actually look better without Griner and Hartley. I have to stay clear of them because they just keep flummoxing me.
One spot I really like tomorrow.
One spot I really like tomorrow.
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#3DownNation
1.5/.25 Dallas +7.5/ML -107/+290
A great situational spot here for Dallas ve the Sparks with no Nneka.
I was hoping to wait this out until it was confirmed that Ogubowale was in for the Wings but the line was on the move down from 8 so I had to jump. Since she returned after turning her ankle the other night and they are now on 3 days rest, and clinging to the 8th and final playoiff spot, I suspect she plays. But I'd rather have confirmation since she's listed as questionable. If she's out, I buy off this bet in a hurry because no player is more important to a team in this league than her.
eta...added a small taste of the ML. LA def has less to play for here.
A great situational spot here for Dallas ve the Sparks with no Nneka.
I was hoping to wait this out until it was confirmed that Ogubowale was in for the Wings but the line was on the move down from 8 so I had to jump. Since she returned after turning her ankle the other night and they are now on 3 days rest, and clinging to the 8th and final playoiff spot, I suspect she plays. But I'd rather have confirmation since she's listed as questionable. If she's out, I buy off this bet in a hurry because no player is more important to a team in this league than her.
eta...added a small taste of the ML. LA def has less to play for here.
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#3DownNation
So I mentioned back on Aug 9 that 'home' teams in the bubble has been winning and covering at an astonishing rate and some media outlets have picked up on it like the article below...
fivethirtyeight.com
Even shooting% was better for the 'home' teams
But if you dive a bit deeper, that effect largely wore off by Aug 12 and since then 'home' teams have gone 23-24 SU and 23-22-2 ATS.
A number of reasons have been suggested (uniforms, home bench location, home intros etc) the only one that makes sense to me is game start time which they have tried to keep like normal so late starts for west coast teams. My theory is that the effect wore off after all teams had spent a couple weeks in the same time zone. It should be noted however, that some western teams have tried to stick to their usual time zone routine, waking and staying up later. More research would confirm this.
I suspect the same thing is happening in the NBA where 'home' teams in the bubble had performed better early on but the effect has now largely worn off.
How does this help us handicap? It probably doesn't right now because I missed the boat, but I think it does shed some light on the effects of time zone changes on athletic performance. Also, Ill keep it in mind for the next 100yr pandemic in 2120.
Why Are The WNBA’s ‘Home’ Teams Feeling So At Home In The Bubble?
No one knows for sure why home-court advantage still seems to exist.
Even shooting% was better for the 'home' teams
But if you dive a bit deeper, that effect largely wore off by Aug 12 and since then 'home' teams have gone 23-24 SU and 23-22-2 ATS.
A number of reasons have been suggested (uniforms, home bench location, home intros etc) the only one that makes sense to me is game start time which they have tried to keep like normal so late starts for west coast teams. My theory is that the effect wore off after all teams had spent a couple weeks in the same time zone. It should be noted however, that some western teams have tried to stick to their usual time zone routine, waking and staying up later. More research would confirm this.
I suspect the same thing is happening in the NBA where 'home' teams in the bubble had performed better early on but the effect has now largely worn off.
How does this help us handicap? It probably doesn't right now because I missed the boat, but I think it does shed some light on the effects of time zone changes on athletic performance. Also, Ill keep it in mind for the next 100yr pandemic in 2120.
gopackgo444
Pretty much a regular
5D now has them at +6.5
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#3DownNation
Seems like the market has settled on 6.5 everywhere now. I made the line 4.5 FWIW but it all rests on Ogumbowale's status. She's still listed at GTD or questionable most places. I think its 80% likely she plays but I won't hesitate to buy off if she is out because she means so much to that team.
number2
Pretty much a regular
So I mentioned back on Aug 9 that 'home' teams in the bubble has been winning and covering at an astonishing rate and some media outlets have picked up on it like the article below...
Why Are The WNBA’s ‘Home’ Teams Feeling So At Home In The Bubble?
No one knows for sure why home-court advantage still seems to exist.
Even shooting% was better for the 'home' teams
But if you dive a bit deeper, that effect largely wore off by Aug 12 and since then 'home' teams have gone 23-24 SU and 23-22-2 ATS.
A number of reasons have been suggested (uniforms, home bench location, home intros etc) the only one that makes sense to me is game start time which they have tried to keep like normal so late starts for west coast teams. My theory is that the effect wore off after all teams had spent a couple weeks in the same time zone. It should be noted however, that some western teams have tried to stick to their usual time zone routine, waking and staying up later. More research would confirm this.
I suspect the same thing is happening in the NBA where 'home' teams in the bubble had performed better early on but the effect has now largely worn off.
How does this help us handicap? It probably doesn't right now because I missed the boat, but I think it does shed some light on the effects of time zone changes on athletic performance. Also, Ill keep it in mind for the next 100yr pandemic in 2120.
Oh yeah.....the Circadian thing right? Is that how u spell it? The west coast at east coast early start thing......hmmmmm.....didn’t come to mind before......
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#3DownNation
1* Atlanta -5 -110
1* Phoenix -6.5 -109
1* IND / PHX over 170.5 -110
Atlanta fighting for the last playoff spot and their defence has improved a lot in the last few games while NY has nothing to play for. Total in this one looks about right but I suspect it will drop and if it does, I could see myself taking the over. NY has played a spate of the best defences in the league which has kept their scores in the mid-60s but I think they could hit 80 vs ATL.
Even though they're only a game out of the last playoff spot, Indy looks drained and done. Their roster is short and they are on a 4 in 6 stretch. They have lost 6 of their last 9 by double digits. I know I said I don't want to get involved with Phoenix but they have quietly been winning despite losing 2 of their 'big 3' players and should have no problem running over this Indy team for a DD win. As for the total, these teams don't play a lot of defence and will easily get baited into a run and gun shootout if the other team doesn't stop it. Neither team will stop it here. Last time these 2 met it was the highest scoring game of the season. I doubt it hit 200 like then but 180s-190s is certainly achievable.
1* Phoenix -6.5 -109
1* IND / PHX over 170.5 -110
Atlanta fighting for the last playoff spot and their defence has improved a lot in the last few games while NY has nothing to play for. Total in this one looks about right but I suspect it will drop and if it does, I could see myself taking the over. NY has played a spate of the best defences in the league which has kept their scores in the mid-60s but I think they could hit 80 vs ATL.
Even though they're only a game out of the last playoff spot, Indy looks drained and done. Their roster is short and they are on a 4 in 6 stretch. They have lost 6 of their last 9 by double digits. I know I said I don't want to get involved with Phoenix but they have quietly been winning despite losing 2 of their 'big 3' players and should have no problem running over this Indy team for a DD win. As for the total, these teams don't play a lot of defence and will easily get baited into a run and gun shootout if the other team doesn't stop it. Neither team will stop it here. Last time these 2 met it was the highest scoring game of the season. I doubt it hit 200 like then but 180s-190s is certainly achievable.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Results to date...
Sides 20-17 +3.27*
Totals 17-16 +0.85*
2H/Live 5-7 -1.625*
Overall 42-40 +2.495*
That half point loss with Dallas really hurt. I still think they were the right side but some nights the shots don't fall.
Friday lines out but I don't see anything I like as of yet.
Sides 20-17 +3.27*
Totals 17-16 +0.85*
2H/Live 5-7 -1.625*
Overall 42-40 +2.495*
That half point loss with Dallas really hurt. I still think they were the right side but some nights the shots don't fall.
Friday lines out but I don't see anything I like as of yet.
Hulu
#3DownNation
2* Los Angeles -4.5 -110
Gonna take a shot with LA in the nightcap. They most likely get Nneka back and they need this game to stay in the hunt for the double-bye that the top 2 spots get. Chicago was amongst the top teams until losing Diamond Deshields and Azura Stevens for the past few. They haven't been the same and except for a 4pt loss to Minnesota, haven't been all that competitive. I think LA bounce back off their loss to the Storm.
eta adding another unit to this while I see some books moving to 5. I really like this play the more I think about it
Gonna take a shot with LA in the nightcap. They most likely get Nneka back and they need this game to stay in the hunt for the double-bye that the top 2 spots get. Chicago was amongst the top teams until losing Diamond Deshields and Azura Stevens for the past few. They haven't been the same and except for a 4pt loss to Minnesota, haven't been all that competitive. I think LA bounce back off their loss to the Storm.
eta adding another unit to this while I see some books moving to 5. I really like this play the more I think about it
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#3DownNation
Wow down to 161.5 now at most shops. My models said 156.5-164 for this one and my floor was 163.5 so I wouldn't endorse it as a play below that.
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#3DownNation
Results to date...
Sides 22-17 +6.77*
Totals 19-19 -0.955*
2H/Live 6-7 -1.125*
Overall 47-43 +4.69*
Not likely any play today unless the books really get the CON/PHX line wrong so might as well tally things up.
Might as well give up on totals. My models (last modified in 2015) obviously not up to the task of making good numbers for today's WNBA and the effects of the bubble. The game has changed substantially since I last watched it a lot in 2013 and for the better.
56% on sides though so I'll stick with that and hope to improve in the last week and playoffs.
Sides 22-17 +6.77*
Totals 19-19 -0.955*
2H/Live 6-7 -1.125*
Overall 47-43 +4.69*
Not likely any play today unless the books really get the CON/PHX line wrong so might as well tally things up.
Might as well give up on totals. My models (last modified in 2015) obviously not up to the task of making good numbers for today's WNBA and the effects of the bubble. The game has changed substantially since I last watched it a lot in 2013 and for the better.
56% on sides though so I'll stick with that and hope to improve in the last week and playoffs.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Going back to the well with the rubber match between these two. Last time really surprised me as both January and Thomas ended up playing after being listed as questionable. CON showed they are probably the only team that knows how to defend the arc and I'm filing that away for a potential playoff matchup. As for today, CON doesn't need this game at all as they are locked into playoff position. As such, both January and Thomas will rest. Phoenix OTOH still can make the top 4 and have a first round bye with the Lynx losing last night so have every motivation to win here.
I expected Phoenix -6 so getting them at +money seems like a gift. Unless I've missed some major news, this looks like a terrible line to me.
I expected Phoenix -6 so getting them at +money seems like a gift. Unless I've missed some major news, this looks like a terrible line to me.
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#3DownNation
1* PHX / CON over 161.5 -107
I know I said I wasn't going to play totals but this isn't a models play, this is an old-school feeling-in-my-gut play. CON showed they can defend Phoenix unlike any other team last game but defence takes effort and without the motivation, I just don't think the Sun bring that sort of effort here. I think this game plays out like I expected the last game to. Doubtful anyone can hold Phoenix to <80 again.
I know I said I wasn't going to play totals but this isn't a models play, this is an old-school feeling-in-my-gut play. CON showed they can defend Phoenix unlike any other team last game but defence takes effort and without the motivation, I just don't think the Sun bring that sort of effort here. I think this game plays out like I expected the last game to. Doubtful anyone can hold Phoenix to <80 again.
I like this.
gopackgo444
Pretty much a regular
I followed you on Phoenix. I got -3.5. Saw they were up 20 at halftime and was like easy money. I about died when I saw them trailing after 3. Glad they covered. Nice job
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#3DownNation
That was infuriating. They came out in the 3rd like they had the game won and just started taking stupid shot after stupid shot. It took a miracle shot at the buzzer to get it to OT.
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#3DownNation
1* Washington +8.5 -112
Mystics still battling for the last playoff spot with the Wings and will play like their lives depend on it. LA also has something to play for as they can still finish in the top 2 to get the double bye but without Ruffin-Pratt and possibly without Sykes, they will have a tougher time. I made this line -5.
Mystics still battling for the last playoff spot with the Wings and will play like their lives depend on it. LA also has something to play for as they can still finish in the top 2 to get the double bye but without Ruffin-Pratt and possibly without Sykes, they will have a tougher time. I made this line -5.
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#3DownNation
Other game I was interested in today was Aces/Sparks. Sparks need this game to have a chance at the double-bye but Aces have a game in hand vs the Storm on Sunday. The Aces won't want to lose this game either though but as long as they lose by <4 they will have the tiebreaker vs the Sparks.
So its a great spot for LA. Problem is, they're not at full strength and I'm not sure they have the horses to do it. Especially without Ruffin-Pratt who has been key for their offense.
So its a great spot for LA. Problem is, they're not at full strength and I'm not sure they have the horses to do it. Especially without Ruffin-Pratt who has been key for their offense.
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