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2*/.5* Connecticut +3.5/ML -108/+138

On paper Chicago has the better record but this is two teams headed in opposite directions. UConn opened the year 0-5 due to injuries and then proceeded to go 10-7 the rest of the way and showed they can run with anyone when healthy, which they now mostly are. Chicago meanwhile started out great tearing through the league with a 10-4 record but have finished the year 2-6 after losing Stevens and Deshields. Wrong team favoured here IMO
 
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1*/.25* Washington +4.5/ML

Washington has been on a tear to get themselves into the playoffs and I feel like they enter with momentum on their side vs a Phoenix team that has been jeckell and hyde down the stretch. Taurasi can always take her team and put it on her back but with the compresed schedule and a lack of rest due to Phoenix's short bench, she has looked a bit fatigued recently. I'll take the points with the team that looks more younger, has a deeper bench atm and has overcome some adversity just to be here.
 
Phoenix does have a rest advantage in this game, having not played since Friday so maybe Taurasi looking tired isn't as much of a factor but I still think their short bench will hurt them vs a team who has been here before and is on a streak
 
0.5* Live Phoenix ML +130

Washington with an early lead but Hines-Allen on the bench for most of the 1Q which is concerning. Buying off a portion.
 
Results thru 1st playoff round...

Sides 27-19 +14.75*
Totals 21-19 +0.545*
2H/Live 9-8 +0.65*
Futures 0-1 -0.25*

Overall 57-47 +15.695*


The run continues. One future still alive with Phoenix. Round 2 Thursday.
 
Results thru 1st playoff round...

Sides 27-19 +14.75*
Totals 21-19 +0.545*
2H/Live 9-8 +0.65*
Futures 0-1 -0.25*

Overall 57-47 +15.695*


The run continues. One future still alive with Phoenix. Round 2 Thursday.

Thanks for the plays.....tailed both but not ML....
 
1* Connecticut +4.5 -110

Riding with the Sun again. I’m not sure they win but o think this is a close game vs a Sparks team with some question marks on their roster.
 
Wiese and Ruffin-Pratt both available for the Sparks tonight which is the line moved that way. I still think this game is close
 
.5*/.25* Live Minnesota +4/ML -110/+165

Taken at the half. I think Minny makes a game of this. Best coached team in the league and they are one of the few that makes significant HT adjustments in my estimation. Shay Peddy out for Phoenix and may or may not be back but it leaves them really short handed.
 
.5*/.25* Live Minnesota +4/ML -110/+165

Taken at the half. I think Minny makes a game of this. Best coached team in the league and they are one of the few that makes significant HT adjustments in my estimation. Shay Peddy out for Phoenix and may or may not be back but it leaves them really short handed.

Zing!
 
Results thru 2nd playoff round...

Sides 28-19 +15.75*
Totals 21-19 +0.545*
2H/Live 10-8 +1.563*
Futures 0-2 -0.50*

Overall 59-48 +17.358*


Still rollin. See ya Sunday.
 
1* Seattle -7.5 -110

I don't see the Lynx being much of a challenge for Seattle. They barely beat a severely depleted Phoenix team and Fowles is still not 100% and Lexie is still out for a concussion. Soke of their starters like Dantas and Carlton are bordferline IMO and this just feels like lambs to the slaughter. Should be a double digit win.
 
1* Seattle -7.5 -110

I don't see the Lynx being much of a challenge for Seattle. They barely beat a severely depleted Phoenix team and Fowles is still not 100% and Lexie is still out for a concussion. Soke of their starters like Dantas and Carlton are bordferline IMO and this just feels like lambs to the slaughter. Should be a double digit win.

Game was postponed due to presumptive or preliminary positive covid tests for the Storm. From what I'm hearing it was more than 1 player which reduces the chance that these were false positives. Game 2 still scheduled for tonight but no confirmation yet. Will stay tuned.
 
1* Seattle -8 -110

Not quite as sanguine about this bet as I once was but I still like it.

So when theres an inconclusive test, the leagues requires 2 negative tests at least 24 hours apart to clear the player. Apparently all but one player has been cleared and the final one is waiting on results. That indicates that it was a problem with the test or the lab work that resulted in several bad tests and not any sort of outbreak. Having said that, how does this delay affect both teams?

Minny was on the court warming up when game 1 was postponed whereas Seattle was on the bus to the court when the news broke. I'm not sure if a 2 day delay equates to a let down for either team.

Minny got a couple of extra days for Sylvia Fowles to rest up and if so, will get some more minutes tonight which can only help their cause. OTOH news came that Lexie Brown has left the bubble and won't be back and I would think losing a team leader like that might be a bit disheartening. As for Seattle, I already viewed them as a caged Lion who have been waiting for their chance to play some meaningful games for weeks and to me this only heightens that. Not to mention the extra couple of days probably also helps Sue Bird's tired frame a bit.
 
Should be noted that the Storm haven't played a game in 9 days so its the old rest vs rust debate. This team is loaded with vets who know how to get it done and I think they come out ready to play.
 
Couple of smaller plays that I like...

0.5* Las Vegas 1H -2.5 -110
0.5* MIN / SEA over 162.5 -107
 
1* MIN / SEA over 163.5 -111

Fowles is questionable again and even if she plays will be limited and she is the Lynx defense. When she is out the Lynx open up and play a lot more pace and their 3pt attempts go way up. Seattle OTOH plays faster against good opponents averaging 5.1pts/game more when playing teams with winning records. The books haven't adjusted this enough after game 1. Should be 166 or so IMO
 
1* / .5* Connecticut +4.5/ML -106/+169
1* LV / CON under 158.5 -109


Books still haven't figured out that UConn is the better team here despite their record. I should have been on them last game too but with big-time playoff performer ALyssa Thomas being out, I was hesitant. In the end she played (<48hrs after separating her shoulder!) and the Sun once again imposed their will on the young Aces. Now they smell blood in the water and AT has a couple of days more rest. I think they clamp down and finish this series. In the event they don't, I will likely go harder on them in the following game.

I am still kicking myself for not taking CON +2200 to win it all at the start of the playoffs but they will still have a lot of trouble getting past Seattle in the finals.

One lean in the late game but I'm waiting on some news and line movement before striking.
 
6th (wo)man of the year Dearica Hamby out for the Aces today. Good news.

AT confirmed in. More good news. I think the Sun finish this today.
 
1* Seattle -7.5 -115

Fowles can't go. Minny knows they're done and Seattle smells blood. No team has ever come back after being 0-2 down. I think they finish it here
 
Results thru Semi-Finals...

Sides 29-22 +11.99*
Totals 23-20 +0.955*
2H/Live 10-9 +0.763*
Futures 0-2 -0.50*

Overall 62-53 +13.208*


3-5 -4.33* in the semi-final round with one game to go.


For Tuesday...

1.5*/.75* Connecticut +4 / ML -110 / +150

I said if they lost game 4 I'd go bigger on game 5 so here it is. They looked lethargic and unready last game but this is still the more experienced playoff performer of these two teams. I think they head to the finals.
 
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