Hulu's NBA 2016/17 Debacle

Thanks man. Yeah it sucks but it is what it is. Have to say, now that I've had a couple of days I see an upside. I'm out of work right now but with one less mouth to feed I can live on the cheap and head up to my cabin in the woods and spend the summer fishing and drinking beer before I have to go back to work.

0.75*/0.75* Dallas -1/ML -105/-112
1* OKC / DAL under 207.5 -109
0.5* Parlay DAL pk / under 207.5 +265
1* Parlay WAS / BOS / UTH ML +105
 
Updated record

Sides 47-34 +12.98*
Totals 49-38-1 +7.80*
2H Sides 2-1 +1.00*
2H Totals 3-5 -2.03*
Parlays 5-7 -1.08*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-5 -3.86*

Overall 104-89-1 +14.81*
 
Sides 48-34 +14.48*
Totals 50-38-1 +8.80*
2H Sides 2-1 +1.00*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 6-8 -0.75*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 110-92-1 +17.64*

Decent night with a good read on the Dallas game. I should've hit OKC TT under also but oh well. On to tonight...

1*/.25* Houston +4/ML -110/+150
1.25* Milwaukee -4.5 -110
1.25* Denver -12 -103
1.25* Utah -6.5 -110

May have one or two more...big card tonight.
 
1*/.25* Chicago +6/ML -107/+217
1* BOS / LAC under 217.5 -106
1* Parlay CLE/CHA/MEM ML +112

Utah looking like a mistake now. Oh well.
 
What a shit day...3 bets killed at the buzzer. Will update the record later.

1* Dallas -10 -105

May add one total
 
Should've added more on Dallas when I had the chance but the line movement scared me away. Also wish I hadn't rejected the over in OKC as that was an easy winner. Oh well.

For Wednesday...

1*/.15* Brooklyn +9.5/ML +102/+474


Probably a couple more plays later
 
Hit this early for Thursday because I feel like its a value and will likely go up. Pops knows how to manage a B2B.

1* San Antonio -2.5 -109
 
Thanks raems...you too sir.

1.5* DET / IND under 208.5 -106

my numbers put the appropriate total range at 201-208 and I thought the opener of 205 was about right. I have no idea why it went up over 208 but I'll bite.
 
Sides 53-37-1 +16.06*
Totals 50-41-1 +5.13*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 6-10 -2.80*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 116-101-1 +13.20*

Tallying up the carnage from a few days ago. Shouldn't be betting when my head is not in the game but whatever. Took a few days off to separate myself from basketball and I'm ready to get at it for the stretch run. I still think 25 units is achievable by the end of the playoffs.

For Tuesday...

2* Indiana -3.5 -106

0.75*/0.25* Portland +4.5/ML -105/+164

1* POR / NOP under 216 -105

Still considering the under in Brooklyn also. I think it could go higher still so I'm going to watch it
 
Last one for today. Gave up waiting for this to go higher. I want to get out and enjoy the snow.

1* OKC / BKN under 225 -107
 
Thanks Tito. Now I wish I had waited out that total a bit longer. 226.5 now. Hopefully the difference doesn't come into play.
 
Sides 53-39-1 +12.90*
Totals 51-42-1 +5.06*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 6-10 -2.80*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 117-104-1 +9.97*

This losing run is getting real old.

2* San Antonio -11.5 +100

1.75*/.25* Dallas +7/ML -105/+260

2* UTH / DET under 199.5 -106

Also considering Milwaukee, Minnesota and a couple other totals.
 
Thanks gents. Have to turn this ship around.

2* Miami -6 -106

1* Parlay BOS/MIA/HOU/SAN ML +135

Thats it for today. Can't stomach any of the other totals I was looking at.
 
Sides 55-40-1 +15.30*
Totals 52-42-1 +7.06*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 6-11 -3.80*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 120-106-1 +12.37*

Good day yesterday. Nothing tonight that I like other than a slight lean to Toronto -2.5, I think all other lines are where they need to be. Too busy with the Tourney to cap properly anyway. On to tomorrow.
 
Friday...

1* Detroit -3.5 -103
1* Miami -4.5 +100

One total I like also but trying not to mess with those too much as they have been really tight lately.
 
Sides 56-41-1 +15.27*
Totals 52-42-1 +7.06*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 6-11 -3.80*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 121-107-1 +12.34*

Juiced out last night. Detroit with a historically bad 4th quarter. I like this spot, especially with Nene resting last night.

1.5* Houston -2 -102

Also strong lean to the under but with large variance in the range so I'm staying away.
 
Sides 57-41-1 +16.77*
Totals 52-42-1 +7.06*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 6-11 -3.80*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 122-107-1 +13.84*

Should've taken the total also but I've been so bad with them lately I don't trust my instincts right now. For Sunday...

1* Dallas -4.5 -110
1* IND / TOR under 201.5 -105
 
One more. By the numbers this should be a strong play with the models ranging from 206-213 but a couple of concerns are keeping it from being a large play. Could be a coming out party for Detroit after the piss poor offensive performance against the raps but I'll pay to see that. On the other hand Phoenix has been playing down to slower paced teams of late so I expect this to be played at Detroits preferred corpse-like pace.

1* PHX / DET under 213.5 -105
 
Sides 58-41-1 +17.77*
Totals 53-43-1 +7.01*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 6-11 -3.80*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 124-108-1 +14.79*

2-1 last time out. Took the day off yesterday and am regretting it because I would've had a big total play and I missed out.

Took this one this morning as I think the line is off here. I am looking at a number of totals today but will likely eliminate most if not all as the day wears on. I'll post what I play.

Interestingly, I am doing far better with sides then totals this year which is the reverse of most seasons for me.

1.5*/.5* Dallas +5.5/ML -110/+186
 
Thanks Tito.

A pair of totals to round out the day. BOL to all tonight.

1* CHI / TOR over 197.5 -104
1* MIL / POR over 207.5 -109

Re Toronto: I watched the entire Raptors game against Indy and I was really surprised by the pace the raps were pushing. For some time since the ASB they had been one of the slower teams in the league (by the numbers anyway). But after the Oklahoma mess the players-only meeting seemed to have some effect on the offense which had been struggling without Lowry. But most interestingly, the raps asst coach in the end-of-halftime interview commented something to the effect of 'we just need to keep running. Running on offense, running on defense and shooting threes.' Exactly the opposite of what I expected their coaching staff to be preaching. I expect that philosophy to continue here and while the Bulls are an under team themselves, they can get into a track meet if coaxed and that is what I see happening tonight.
 
Thanks BAR, you too.

A little moneyline action on the Bulls 1Q and 1H

0.25*/0.25* Chicago 1Q ML/1H ML +185/+209
 
Sides 59-42-1 +16.61*
Totals 54-44-1 +6.92*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 7-11 -2.65*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 127-110-2 +15.69*


3-2 last time out for a small loss due to my big play Dallas losing. That's also the bet that got me limited at a supposedly 'A grade' sportsbook who is now also refusing to pay me. Been fighting with them for the past couple of days which has left me in the wrong mindset to work on handicapping. One thing I've learned over the years is that if I'm not in the right frame of mind to do the work required, I might as well burn my bankroll.

Going back to the well with Dallas again tonight. Toronto is surging but its a mirage IMO. Might also be one total is I have time to look into it. BOL to all.

1* Dallas pk -107
 
Thanks em.

Market overreaction here to brons scratched cornhole and return.

0.75* Washington +5.5 -107
.25*/.25* Washington 1Q/1H +133/+160
 
Last one for tonight. Gonna take a flier on this total as I think its about 3 pts too high.

1* NYK / SAN under 204.5 -110
 
Sides 60-43-1 +17.02*
Totals 55-44-1 +7.92*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 7-11 -2.65*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 129-111-2 +17.10*

2-1 yesterday by the skin of my teeth. In reality I didn't deserve to win that total but given that I've lost plenty of bets I didn't deserve to, I'll take it. Also went back to the Dallas well too many times and ended up drowning in it.

I like a scary number of spots today so need to get to work narrowing them down but wanted to get this one in first as it looks way off to me.

1* PHX / CHA under 215.5 -108

I have fallen a few days behind in populating my models with data but based on what I can tell, the appropriate range on this game would be somewhere around 205-212. I may add to this later as it is screaming for large play status.

I doubt 'Devin the stilt' has another game for the ages.
 
Grabbing this now as I'm not sure the 7 hangs around.

1.25*/.25* Oklahoma City +7/ML -107/+254
 
Total in Charlotte down to 213 now. Haven't done too well lately when lines move in my favor but on the whole its a good thing.
 
Wow...CRIS threw up a 211.5 right before tip.

And OKC down to a juiced 6 at most shops. Hopefully that bodes well.
 
Sides 60-44-1 +15.43*
Totals 55-45-1 +6.84*
2H Sides 3-2 +0.70*
2H Totals 4-5 -1.53*
Parlays 7-11 -2.65*
Ill-advised Live Plays 0-6 -4.36*

Overall 129-113-2 +14.43*

Been stuck in the 14-17 unit range forever. Took a few days off from posting to try and right the ship. Lets see if we can get this number up above 20 once more.

1.5* Miami -9.5 -113

Working on a few others that I will post later if they materialize. BOL to all.
 
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