Help Needed- Big Series Play- Detroit

[Sammy Meatballs]

I bet a big parlay for the maximum amount at Five Dimes on the Lakers and Pistons to win their series. The payout was pretty good about 65% return.

Everything was going great until this Billups injury concern. I think the Lakers will win their series and thought Detroit would beat the Magic pretty easily after the first 2 games.

Is there concern now in this series? Does anyone know if Billups is done for the series? Can they win without Billups? Can i or should I hedge some money out on Orlando for the series, or bet the individual games.

THe series now is +330 on Orlando according to BAR.

My thinking is that in order for Orlando to win the series they will have to win both game 4 and game 5 for sure. If they lose either one Detroit will be up either 3-1 or 3-2, and Billups may be back for a game 7 then.

I thought about taking Orlando next game maybe, and then parlay the amount on game 5 in Detroit on the Orlando Moneyline and then if they both win parlay it all on game 6 in Orlando? I thought that may be a better way to recoup it.


Any suggestions on how to recoup a possible debacle if the Pistons lose.

 

[aplous]

Simple....bet Magic +330 for the series.


If you feel like playing it game by game, hammer Magic -4 in game 4, then take em ML in game 5 in Detroit.

 

[albyman32]

You're really complicating this. Just hedge out and bet Magic for the series.

 

[Tide High]

i'd ride it. i think the stons get it done, but good reason for concern considering now you have an awful line. magic won't shoot so well all series. they'll only win 1 more game IMO

 

[FRITO]

You're really complicating this. Just hedge out and bet Magic for the series.

:smiley_acbe:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

BUt is it too early for a hedge- I hate hedging out when I have the better team and odds, and One game does not mean anything, and winning 4 games is harder than winning one game.

 

[Tide High]

i'd let it ride

 

[Satyr]

well Sammy I think you answered your own question really. If you weren't so unsure about the Pistons now without Billups you wouldn't have opened this thread.

BAR said Billups usually doesn't heal quickly, and he took Orlando to go through for a reason. No Billups is HUGE for Detroit and you know it. I mean ask yourself, what was the biggest advantage Detroit had over Orlando? Better defense and backcourt. Jameer Nelson can't cope with Rip and Chillups. Now it's one down. If this comes down to battle on the glass the Magic can win the series.

I'd say you hedge, at least partially, so you wouldn't feel bad later on. :shake:

 

[FRITO]

Billups

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Hell I never though I would be reading so much about an athletes god damn hamstring injury! I will go massage it myself if it helps lol..


At least he may be ready for game 5 if he cannot go in game 4.

 

[GWarner27]

i would say wait to hedge, and if it gets bad then hedge out as long as money isn't an issue. I'm sure it's not if you made a huge, huge bet, but if not and it's within the rule of "not betting what you can't afford to lose" then just ride it out.

good luck but as a Celtics fan i'm rooting for the Magic

 

[divol]

You shouldn't worry I believe. First of all, in order for Orlando to go to the next round, they must win a game in Detroit and there will be nice odds for them to do so. You can wait to see how game number 4 plays out and what is the status on Billups for games four and five and decide after that. To be honest, I can't see those losers go to the next round and go past Pistons. Maybe if Sheed and Rip will get injured as well...
I wouldn't touch the bet for now...

 

[Tide High]

divol has it. you'll have great odds on game 7 if you just have to hedge.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Thanks guys- I guess I am not in trouble at all until I lose a home game in this series. My only concern would be losing game 4 and then game 5 at home, then I could lose in game 6 in Orlando.

But as Divol said losers like Orlando cannot win 3 games in a row very often, especially vs Detroit. I also think that Stuckey is a good replacement. Also game 5 is not til Tuesday which gives Billups plenty of time to heal to play in that game i would assume.

I can smartly hedge out now, but am thinking even though it is a very big bet, I want to win, I didnt get in this to lose money on a hedge. I figure a hedge is admitting loss, and I will only hedge if I am facing elimination maybe or Billups is out for the entire series. BUt we do have a chance to win the next game which would make it 3-1 and give us a good chance to close it out.

 

[B.A.R.]

Honestly, I still don't get why they are saying this was some freakish injury. I watched him injure this on Monday night in Game 2 with 8 seconds left. I knew he was going to aggravate it in Game 3. Fuckin knew it. They say this is his first hammy injury in career. With ankles, calves and quads he has healed very slowely. Now, we have the best conditioning and training staff in the league but its just his nature to heal slowely. I honestly think that ORL takes Game 4 and basically Detroit has to hope that Chauncey can be back at some point to try and "steal" this series back. I wouldn't be suprised though if ORL wins 4 staright to win series. Either way, this injury will nag so Detroit is done even if it advances to the next round.

 

[B.A.R.]

ORLANDO, Fla. -- Physically, Chauncey Billups was feeling better Friday morning. Mentally, not so much.
"I am feeling a little better today, but it's still tough to say (whether he will be ready to play in Game 4 Saturday)," said Billups, who continues taking treatment around the clock on his strained right hamstring. "It's a soft tissue injury and it's tough. It's very restrictive. Even when I just try to walk fast, it's restrictive. I have to be careful."
Pistons physical therapist Arnie Kander said he was encouraged by Billups' progress and the goal was still for him to play Saturday.
<!--startclickprintexclude-->
<!-- OAS AD 'ArticleFlex_1' begin --><SCRIPT language=JavaScript> <!-- OAS_AD('ArticleFlex_1'); //--> </SCRIPT><!-- OAS AD 'ArticleFlex_1' end -->
<!--endclickprintexclude-->"The fact that he has improved this quickly is a great sign," Kander said. "Usually Day 2 after you irritate a muscle feels terrible. That fact that he is walking normally is really positive."
Billups said he might shoot some Friday but he wouldn't full-out test the leg until Saturday morning.

 

[Inspekdah]

I like the Pistons with or without him in Game 4.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Honestly, I still don't get why they are saying this was some freakish injury. I watched him injure this on Monday night in Game 2 with 8 seconds left. I knew he was going to aggravate it in Game 3. Fuckin knew it. They say this is his first hammy injury in career. With ankles, calves and quads he has healed very slowely. Now, we have the best conditioning and training staff in the league but its just his nature to heal slowely. I honestly think that ORL takes Game 4 and basically Detroit has to hope that Chauncey can be back at some point to try and "steal" this series back. I wouldn't be suprised though if ORL wins 4 staright to win series. Either way, this injury will nag so Detroit is done even if it advances to the next round.

You don't sound too confident in them my friend. I hope they are more confident than you are. Is STUCKEY not good enough to win this series? Magic winning 4 in a row- wow I guess you feel Billups is the key to this team

 

[B.A.R.]

Stuckey is solid, yet a rookie.

Chauncey controls the tempo and sets the tone. Its little things like spacing and setting up the offense properly.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I decided to put a wager 1/10th of my initial bet on Orlando -4 in game 4.

Hoping there is not a 1 to 3 point win here, I can take the entire winnings on this and place it on Orlando game 5 in Detroit on the Moneyline at +200.

If this hits I can put the whole amount on Orlando game 6 Moneyline and that would break me even essentially if Orlando wins. This way I am protected from the 3 wins in a row by Orlando.

THe only loophole is if Orlando does not cover game 4, which I am hoping they lose outright.

Just my luck I play a series play huge and the star gets injured- Its never the team I bet against who gets injured.

Hamstring injuries in football are usually at least 2 weeks a player is out. Although a football player explodes off the line and blows it out cause he runs very fast.

From looking at Billups muscular stature I would say he is out for sure for this series. He does not appear to have a very flexible body and his hamstrings are probably very tight. He is explosive, and guys like this get injured a lot and take for ever to heal. Its like sprinters they always pull muscles because their fibres are so tight and packed in. A guy like Prince would recover fast from a hamstring injury because his muscles are long and elongated and not so tightly wound like Billups are.

With current treatment though hopefully they have some miracle AMWAY Super Drink or some P90X training regime to get his ass ready for Saturday. Hell even send in Benny HINN to do his little prayer for him and heal him.

And also this is no freakish accident, they make it sound like he was hit by lightning on the court lol- He tweaked it, they know it, they are not saying anything because they know it is serious, he is done, unless the treatment is that good that can heal him about 5 times faster than a normal athlete would heal.

 

[Tide High]

With current treatment though hopefully they have some miracle AMWAY Super Drink or some P90X training regime to get his ass ready for Saturday. Hell even send in Benny HINN to do his little prayer for him and heal him.

you've got me rollin man! i don't like the play tonight, but if it hits you are good for the series, i guess.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I actually just parlayed the Penguins MONEYLINE with Orlando MOneyline tomorrow. it pays more than even money.

IF Pens win, then if Orlando keeps winning 3 in a row I am protected, as I will progressively bet their moneylines. I am hoping to lose this bet tomorrow or on game 5.

If it loses with a pens loss I may just let the whole thing ride at home on game 5, as I am at home.

So just a small hedge to see what happens.

I am still praying for Billups to heal, negotations are in progress with Benny HINN to come to Detroit and fix Billups. Hell rasheed could use a good cleansing too after all the techninals and all the BS he gives to the REfs.

 

[divol]

Told you they are losers. They are the Phoenix Suns of the East (and don't get me wrong, I like both teams, but still...). Hope that Detroit will end it in five games, since I got the money on that...

 

[Inspekdah]

Your bet looks safe... kudos!