Help me trim this list back a little bit

T

TheGarfather

Pretty much a regular
Vandy/MiaOh U
NC State/SC U
SC-
Rice-
Utah/Michigan U
UAB+
TCU/NM U
BC-
Pitt-
VT/ECU U
Missouri-
Cal-
USC/UVA U
ULL+
KSU-
NT/KSU O

ML dogs, probably won't play any for two weeks because they never win until the middle of September, but I am in theory looking at Fresno, Stanford, ECU, ULL, and WMU.

Let's see if folks can help me vote a couple of these off the island per se.
 
Well, I would think that a couple of those totals will be eliminated by the opening numbers.

Also, I've seen Rice or SMU on a lot of cards, but I couldn't find a compelling reason for either side. If I had to pick a game not to bet in week 1, that game would be it.

I do agree with most of your sides though.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Well, I would think that a couple of those totals will be eliminated by the opening numbers.

Also, I've seen Rice or SMU on a lot of cards, but I couldn't find a compelling reason for either side. If I had to pick a game not to bet in week 1, that game would be it.

I do agree with most of your sides though.
Click to expand...

pretty much in agreement with DMoney.

Rice/SMU is just a game I have no interest at all in and have a hard time giving an edge to anyone in that game, whoever has the ball last likely wins.


I am waiting for a lot of the same totals so hopefully we get some numbers to work with
 
Thanks fellas. I have no idea what to look for in terms of totals. They might all come out in the high 30s or they might be where they always were. Rule changes are such a pain in the ass.

The plays that I won't be in on which most folks seem to like are: Texas, TCU, NW, Temple, and MiamiOH. I won't be opposite any of them, I just don't like the number or spot in some cases.
 
At 3.5 I would have bought the hook to take it at 3. Anything more is playing with fire a little bit. At 7 it is raging out of control. Is Temple 10 pts better than anyone on a neutral field?
 
i guess i would trim kansas state off that list. i don't like how the line relates to some of the other ones in that area.

wiscy -26 to akron
texas -23 to fau
auburn -26.5 to ulm
kansas state -24.5 north texas ?
 
Like Rice & UAB lots.

Not feeling any of those DD chalk. SCar / BC / Pitt
I want an established QB if I am going to lay that much.

I don't get Michigan St. line move myself. They lost 4 quality players (WR / TE / 2 DEs)...problem is Cal lost WRs & TB.

Really liking Western Michigan more and more.

BOL
 
on pitt and leaning your way on a lot of your totals...i'm on kent and although i don't think they could have really made the line any lower...i'm not seeing much evidence that bc will kick the shit out of a very motivated kent st. highly anticipated game for kent playin in cleveland browns stadium while bc has ga tech on deck. i think this will be a very close game throughout
 
I like Kansas St. They can't afford to do anything but blow out North Texas. Look at North Texas vs. superior competition on the road last season... couldn't hang with anyone and return a much lesser team.
 
broadway, you and Yessir (I think it was him) both like Kent, which is an interesting take to me. From a skill standpoint the Golden Flashes are equal or better if for no other reason than their experience, and spot favors them I would have to say, but I am just totally convinced in the trenches the Eagles will control this one throughout. Their DL is large and athletic, while the OL is great (as always) and they have excellent skill. That was a Tom O'Brien thing, was great line play. Jeff Jagodzinksi may or may not get the same quality, but at this point there are still a lot of the old regime's players in there and they are legit.

A lot of Jarvis' success last year was up the middle - surprising considering his size, but now he is missing his center and one of his guards and he is running into a pair of tackles that tip the scales at 650 pounds. And anything that gets through them will be eaten alive by that awesome trio of backers. I just dno't think they faced anything like this last year. Maybe Ohio State's front seven was comparable. I just don't see a whole lot of points for KSU. No doubt the BC secondary leaves something to be desired, but Edelmen isn't a pocket passer and in fact isn't much of a passer at all having thrown for more INTs than TDs in each of his two D1A years.

I am really torn on this game. My gut says a pretty definite "yes". Unlike some of my other leans where my gut says, well...it doesn't necessarily say "no", but it just isn't totally convinced (Northwestern, Missouri, and even SC). I am having an absolutely brutal time separating some of these medium sized favorites in my mind. Its been a couple years since I've been this frustrated on a Wk 1 card. Kudos to the linesmakers, they are fucking me up right now.

Utah State keeps taking money. I am trying to show good restraint and not even consider the Rebs, but at 11 or less that is going to be an awfully tall order.
 
But of course with that news came a corresponding rise to 3.5

:hang:

I think some folks expected him to pick up right where Colt B. left off, but that isn't reasonable and JJ has been around the block enough times to know who he should go with. If anything, moving away from Willis to a couple kids that are better passers should drop the line to 2.5 rather than increase it, but that is where the rift between perception and reality lies in the art of handicapping. They go away from the "name" kid so folks like Rice more when in fact perhaps the opposite should be true. We'll see, could be interesting.

I may not have phrased that very well. Let me frame it like this: if Jones had said Justin Willis is the starter, and that had moved the line to 2.5 - I would have already played Rice.
 
I assume the KSU- is KState..........I wouldnt bet them until 9/17 at LVille.......week 1 they will have a walk on at RB.
 
TheGarfather said:
But of course with that news came a corresponding rise to 3.5

:hang:

I think some folks expected him to pick up right where Colt B. left off, but that isn't reasonable and JJ has been around the block enough times to know who he should go with. If anything, moving away from Willis to a couple kids that are better passers should drop the line to 2.5 rather than increase it, but that is where the rift between perception and reality lies in the art of handicapping. They go away from the "name" kid so folks like Rice more when in fact perhaps the opposite should be true. We'll see, could be interesting.

I may not have phrased that very well. Let me frame it like this: if Jones had said Justin Willis is the starter, and that had moved the line to 2.5 - I would have already played Rice.
Click to expand...

In the long run, this QB decision may prove correct, but I think I prefer experience in week 1. This is also a why I kind of prefer Sween to Crum out in Wyoming. Obviously, these coaches are a privy to a lot more information than me, but a freshman in his first game scares me.
 
TheGarfather said:
broadway, you and Yessir (I think it was him) both like Kent, which is an interesting take to me. From a skill standpoint the Golden Flashes are equal or better if for no other reason than their experience, and spot favors them I would have to say, but I am just totally convinced in the trenches the Eagles will control this one throughout. Their DL is large and athletic, while the OL is great (as always) and they have excellent skill. That was a Tom O'Brien thing, was great line play. Jeff Jagodzinksi may or may not get the same quality, but at this point there are still a lot of the old regime's players in there and they are legit.

A lot of Jarvis' success last year was up the middle - surprising considering his size, but now he is missing his center and one of his guards and he is running into a pair of tackles that tip the scales at 650 pounds. And anything that gets through them will be eaten alive by that awesome trio of backers. I just dno't think they faced anything like this last year. Maybe Ohio State's front seven was comparable. I just don't see a whole lot of points for KSU. No doubt the BC secondary leaves something to be desired, but Edelmen isn't a pocket passer and in fact isn't much of a passer at all having thrown for more INTs than TDs in each of his two D1A years.

I am really torn on this game. My gut says a pretty definite "yes". Unlike some of my other leans where my gut says, well...it doesn't necessarily say "no", but it just isn't totally convinced (Northwestern, Missouri, and even SC). I am having an absolutely brutal time separating some of these medium sized favorites in my mind. Its been a couple years since I've been this frustrated on a Wk 1 card. Kudos to the linesmakers, they are fucking me up right now.

Utah State keeps taking money. I am trying to show good restraint and not even consider the Rebs, but at 11 or less that is going to be an awfully tall order.
Click to expand...

i think kent will be a strong bet all year. the qb instability last year made everything look a lot worse than it was. i believe they will have one of the best defenses in the MAC this year, without a doubt the best rb, and i think just having edelman's leadership and athletic ability out there will help the offense immensely. they have a couple of OL that will be all-conference, and parrish is a pro prospect at left tackle. this unit will be very strong. edelman may never be a great or even a good passer, but a strong o-line and a strong rb definitely helps out a qb in the passing game. also, new OC aj pratt has seemed to be clicking with edelman and that should open up some opportunities for him to be more successful in the passing game. as far as the skills players not upgrading, i respectfully disagree with you in this respect. kent has brought in a couple of freshmen speedsters on both sides of the ball that should see the field and make an impact. i particularly have read good things about chris gilbert (wr), sal battles (rb), and josh pleasant and leon green (dbs), all of which are true freshmen that are having good enough camps to see the field. i think when you add the true freshmen wideouts it is an upgrade on what was by far the weakness of the team last year...that added in with a STABLE qb who has more opportunities in the passing game due to coaching, and i think it will be a significant difference. they have some good depth behind jarvis, who happens to be a very solid pass catcher as well which is something that i think they can take advantage of vs BC. edelman obviously adds some more of a running threat as well. also, konz was moved to the offensive side of the ball to tight end, and should definitely upgrade the passing game as he has some great athletic ability. on the defensive side of the ball they are weakest in the secondary although i think will improve from last year with solid coaching and some athletic young guys adding depth. keep in mind this was one of the best defenses against the pass in the country just two years ago. lbs and a big defensive front should be the strength of the team. last year's numbers are very very deceiving as they were often backed up against the wall in very tough situations due to their turnover margin, which was among the worst in the nation....again a lot of that had to do with qb instability. i would be absolutely shocked if they turn the ball over like that again. even with that turnover margin, they lost 4 conference games by a td or less. i know that you don't really agree with me on edelman, but i think they did a lot of good things to help him out this year, and they'll be able to run the ball and play defense well enough to keep it close. i'm just not convinced that the BC offense will be that explosive in game 1 without callender and ryan, a qbs first shot as a starter vs a very motivated kent state team with their heads peeking around the corner for ga tech...think kent will find ways score a couple of times and that will be enough to cover...20-14 game
 
"A lot of Jarvis' success last year was up the middle - surprising considering his size, but now he is missing his center and one of his guards"

gar, did center josh perry get injured? if so, that's a major miss on my part...big part of that o-line
 
I will comment on your sides since I have a little free time...you know I pretty much avoid college football totals.

South Carolina remains on my short list; I continue to monitor ETG's thread for information.

Rice; this board seems to like the Owls; I can see why since both defenses appear to be equally awful and the Owls should be ahead of the Ponies on offense...still...laying points with the Owls doesn't seem much different than laying pts with Buffalo.

UAB +; right there with you, though it's not yet on my short list; was really hoping this would have gotten bet up closer to 17.

BC; I was very excited to bet Kent here but this game is now a pass; BC is always stout vs the run, regardless of how good their overall team is, and from what I can tell that is the only way Kent moves the ball. Not sure about this BC coach though, and that is a lot to lay as an AF...see the CM game from two years ago to open the season.

Pitt; if you like Wyoming, guess you would like Pitt as well. Similar spread and matchup.

Missouri and Cal remain as definite possibilities, though I have reservations about both.

ULL+ also looks attractive but I am afraid Fletcher may go for 250 in this one.

Kansas St looks very attractive to me; just concerned about all those JC's playing their first game against this offense.

Suggestion (based on your request): remove Rice and BC from consideration.

G/L 'bro.
 
Just started looking at the lines.

Some initial leans from the ones we've discussed are KSU, BC, and UAB. I think the line for UAB will go up. I see Tulsa as a slight public fav and most will think that UAB can't hang with Tulsa offensively.
 
Alright fine, Boston College is out. Bahh humbug. A couple guys like Kent, horses doesn't agree and neither does CarolinaBlue. You can't always get your way. LOL I won't be on KSU though, just for the record I think they will have a tough time getting to double digits. BC will not be electric offensively, that is something we can all agree on. They never are. An UNDER might be the best choice of all, but there are other U's I like better.

Broadway, according to Phil Steele's injury update Perry has had recurring knee issues which have forced him to give up football. That was a critical development and that was one of the foundational notions that made me consider BC more strongly. Offenses, good and bad ones alike, are never quite as cohesive after losing a 2-year starter.

horses, I am taking half of your advice. (Now just watch as I take the wrong half, BC will win going away and Rice loses outright. LMAO)

So the latest status would be:

BC is out.

Missouri is out too. Just a weird game. I have a funny feeling about that one. Matchup favors the Tigers, but the number is about right.

UAB is also out. I want to bet it, but I know in my heart of hearts, there is no shot in hell that I will end up with a Blazers ticket. I do think that is the right side though. What in hell did Tulsa do to earn the right to lay 14 on the road? They tried it twice last year and couldn't cover either one. Hell their D allowed over 33 ppg.

Rice and Pitt, in that order, are currently next in the queue.

Followed by Cal, SC, Kansas St, Northwestern, and ULL as my only spread dog receiving consideration. ECU and ULL are the only ML dogs that I am still considering.
 
Of the two I prefer Memphis. Ole Miss is suffering some early season attrition on the DL, but more than that I just don't see the Rebs scoring a whole ton of points. Might be tough for them to build and maintain a lead.

Colorado might really kick CSU's ass. In fact, I have a strong inclination that that is exactly what's going to happen, but the history between the two is so strong that I won't try to get involved. Fairchild went with Farris, but it didn't sound like he really wanted to. CU may or may not have a good season, but I think their run defense will continue to be very good the way it has been recently. There were only a couple teams that ran against the Buffs with any effectiveness and I don't think CSU is on the level of any of them. I only recently eliminated CU from my list of possible plays. Ole Miss was really never on it, even though I do consider them to be the superior side in that particular matchup.
 
I have to agree. Memphis looks like a good deal catching 9 in the opener and Ole Miss having serious problems along the DL.

Both teams are starting new QBs, but I think Memphis will keep this one in single digits.
 
Wouldn't play CSU. Past 5 years when game has been ultra close, either Colorado was really really down or when CU was decent CSU had a really good year inconference and went to a bowl. I count beginning of last year for Colorado as a down time, they improved after FSU loss.

----This year, CU will be improved a SOLID BigXII team and CSU will suck.

CSU offensive line best strength, Colorado led by senior Dline great strength, Buffs should run all over, line might be too high to take Colorado though. Concern would be both would run the ball all day, and new clock rules. I think Buffs can throw on CSU BTW all day, who knows if they want.

-----BC Kent is a tough game for me. I think this line is about right. BC will win the game, they are sound, powerful all around but fundamental, not exploxive in the least. BC I don't know if they can blow Kent out, or will try, they will just protect the lead behind their defense.

I know Kent ran VERY effectively against OSU last year. I witnessed massive holes at that game.

----What gets smaller teams like this is overall speed, on punts, on simple plays where a rb is stopped and reverses, etc. BC doesn't possess that great speed but it still showed vs. BG last year.


I think BC will shut down Kent, although I believe Kent could string some plays together for a couple drives behind 3, 4 yard runs and then a pass from Edelman. IMO BC secondary very suspect.

? for this game is BC's OLine. If they can win that battle easily they cover.

I see this being a tight BC win.
 
For the record: Todd Graham said he is going to use both QBs in the first game. That is always a hellish situation to be taking a favorite. Still won't put me on UAB though, at least I don't think so.
 
Just curious as to your thoughts on Arkie State as that is the only dog I am considering (if the line gets to 21.5 and that is a big if). You know I pretty much never play dogs, but b/c of the Aggies trying to get adjusted to a new scheme, along with them most likely trying to ensure an established rushing attack, coupled with what should be a solid ground game from the Red Wolves, I kinda like getting all those points in this one as it might be a clock burner with a decent number of points allowed on both sides as both defenses haven't convinced me of anything yet. Maybe a 35-17 type of game? What are your thoughts, thanks!
 
CB, saw that you played this game. GL on that. I won't be opposite so hopefully they keep it close. My thoughts would have been: the clock burning angle is a good one. It may very well keep the scores low and its always nice to have 3 TDs in your back pocket in a low scoring game.

The problem I have is - as usual - in the trenches. I see not a great deal of experience for the Aggies, but I do see a lot of size and quality. I don't see that on the side of the RWs. Other than Mandich and Carrington I'm not sure they have any linemen who would start at A&M. For the DL to get only 7 sacks in their Sun Belt games is a little bit alarming.

Leonard is a decent athlete, but can't pass for shit and it doesn't matter anyway as he has a bunch of 5'10" receivers who aren't really D1A players. Combine that with a youngish front 7, and 8 in the box is a certainty. That can be really tough to operate against especially for a small school with a minimal number of playmakers. No doubt they will try to run, just no sure they will be able to.

Without knowing much about what Sherman's offense will look like I can't really give a breakdown of A&M offense vs. ASU D, but the one thing to keep in mind is the loss of talented experience in the secondary on the part of the Red Wolves, so if McGee attempts to throw downfield, he will probably be able to. ASU really doesn't have anyone to keep Goodson in check either, so he could break one.

I don't now what else to say. A&M ran all over ULM last season, but I think the RWs are much more solid and sound team than the Warhawks so I wouldn't read anything into that. I made the line 21 myself. So when it opened at 20.5 I more or less wrote it off and haven't found anything compelling one way or the other since. PS lists a lot of negative trends for ASU in the opener, but I wouldn't pay any attention to those personally as this situation is very different. If every time they had played a B12 team, that team was installing a new offense, then I'm sure those numbers would look dramatically different.

Nail em dead.
 
After re-reading what I just wrote, that sounds an awful lot like a write-up for a TAMU play and I can assure everyone I have no interest in that. I'm not down on the RWs or anything, just trying to put out the idea that this is still two different levels of football here, and A&M might play hard for a coach they actually want to win for. I expect that number (20 or 20.5) to possibly come into play here. Bottom line: I don't like or dislike either team, just don't feel there is an edge.
 
41 on that Vandy under at BM. Too low. These teams sucked it up huge last year and still made it to 37. Commodores had two TOs deep in Redhawk territory including a pick in the EZ. Too dicey with a brand new Vandy defense and a MAC defense (albeit an experienced MAC defense). Wanted mid-high 40s but probably should have known better.

17-17 at end of reg = possible loss in OT
 
great read, gar. :shake:
thx for the info, and BOL this week/season.

saw your thoughts about BC. basically spot on, imo. but have you looked at the under there, considering kent st's defense? could be one of the best the MAC has to offer this year. and with the o-line & rbs being the strength of their offense, it just seems like a tailor-made under with what BC brings to the table.
 
gar-I'll offer two comments. In practice and scrimmages BC offense has been able to do nothing against the BC defense. For BC to cover against Kent, I would think they will need a defensive or ST touchdown.

Glad to see someone else looking at ULaLa. Their offensive line and running game might be able to control LOS and clock in that game. And I tend to downgrade USM a bit due to coaching change.

As for your other call, my only offeriong is that VPI usually wins early in the season and loses late. Don't know an awful lot about ECU but I do know that their running back ( Johnson?) might be a big loss because he is going gangbusters so far for the Titans,
GL this year ( You might know me a s Taurus over there )
 
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