horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
This is a virtual cornucopia of allstar CFB 'cappers in here! Kudos to all that worked to create this site; so often one can hear bitching about the way things are or are not, but it's not to often people take the initiative to do something about it...again, good job! (I have a feeling this site manifested itself down in CR, lol!).
Here are some week 1 plays I wrote up:
Toledo @ Iowa St - Not a big trend bettor, but if the coaches have been in place a while, I think they must be considered. That’s the case here with Amstutz entering his 6th year and McCarney entering his 12th. Toledo is 0-6 ats in road NC games and 2-8 ats on grass, showing they prefer the cozy confines of the Glass Bowl, where all they really play is MAC teams. Iowa St has been a solid HF as of late, and are 17-9 ats overall in that role under McCarney. Toledo returns their most starters in 5 years, but lost NFL prospect QB Gradowski (sp?) to graduation. They have one of the top offenses and defenses in the MAC. We all know about the potential of the ISU offense this year and they should have their way against a Toledo defense that Northcoast only found worthy of placing two players on their 4 MAC All conference squads. Key to this game will be the young Toledo Qb Cochran, who has put up fine numbers in limited action, against a young Cyclone defense. I fully expect ISU to get in the high 30’s here, so it’s a matter of what happens on the other side of the ball. In their only game w/o Gradowski LY, the Rockets got waxed in Fresno. Naturally, the Rockets should fare better with all this time to get the new qb acclimated. Toledo had a solid year LY, but their schedule was a joke, and the best team they beat was a floundering UTEP team in the bowl. ISU has very high aspirations this year and they won’t want to slip up in the opener against a MAC team; Amstutz appears to treat these games as more of a prep for MAC play and a loss won’t hurt the Rockets season too much, while it could send the Cyclones into an immediate tailspin. The initial total released on this game was 51 (kalind, where are you?), but I think it will be closer to 60 when it’s officially released. Just don’t think the Rockets can keep up here on offense; if they get into the mid-30’s and cover, I will simply tip my cap to them.
Play: Iowa St -7 (-113) over Toledo
Northwestern -3 over Miami (Oh) – Likely my only play on NW this year, as I am not in the habit of playing teams with 31 yr old head coaches that have never even been a coordinator; add-in the fact the ‘Cats are breaking in a new QB on the road, this wager looks a little crazy. This is more of a gut play than the others and also a fade against an overrated Redhawk team that should be in the bottom half of the MAC this year. Late HC Walker was a great gameday coach, as he seemed to will his team to victory on occasion. I feel that will carry over here in the first game, as a more talented NW team will come in quite focused for this one; focus, more talent and a light spread should offset a decent Redhawk homefield. Emotionally, this is like a must-win for the ‘Cats. Northwestern has a great OL and RB, and Miami is rebuilding their DL and will have to completely sell out to stop the run, making life easier on the new ‘Cat QB.
Play on: Northwestern -3 (-107) over Miami (Oh)
Utah @ UCLA- Here we have one of the luckiest teams last year going against one of the unluckiest teams from last year; UCLA was outgained by almost 75 yds/game in P10 play last year but still managed to pull off a 6-2 mark. They are also replacing both coordinators, their QB, their heart and soul RB and ST extraordinaire Drew and their best player TE Lewis. Their DL will be improved as long as Brown stays healthy, but their back 7 would be average in the MWC, much less the B10. The strength of their team is at WR and if new, highly touted qb Olsen breaks in quickly, they should still have a good offense. Utah averaged nearly 500 yds in offense last year, but barely got to 30ppg; they have two solid QB’s and regardless who starts, they should be effective. They have the best defense in the MWC, and one of the best secondaries in the country led by CB Weddle to match up with UCLA’s offensive strength. UCLA is 10-2 ats in home openers, but Utah is mind-blowing 21-4 ats as an AD, showing they handle adversity well. Just feel I have the better defense, better QB (to start the season anyway) and am catching a generous amount of points in a game I feel Utah has a 50% chance of winning outright. I would play this @ 3’ or greater.
Play on: Utah + over UCLA
La Tech @ Nebraska- already lost ‘Husker CB Bowman to injury, illustrating the risks of laying bets down early. So it goes…I still like this play as I have Nebraska as an underrated team this year, and clearly the 3rd best in the B12 (sorry Tech!). Whenever one lays big points (>14 or so), one has to be assured of getting the underdogs offense off the field quickly; should be no problem here as the Bulldogs will again be a running team with a QB that has tossed the ball about 6 or 7 times in his career; Nebraska has a top 15 defense and special teams, which should set up plenty of short fields against Tech. NU’s offense is another year along in Callahan’s systems, and should ultimately move the ball easily against a tiring Tech defense. Tech lost in the swamp with a better team 41-3 to open last year; coming off that stirring bowl win vs Big Blue, I think Callahan and the Huskers want to make a statement early on with USC looming on the horizon. (Note: the USC game is in two weeks, so look ahead shouldn’t be a factor). Hard to see La Tech scoring in this one and as long as Nebraska can get to no more than 31, I feel this bet should cash.
Play on: Nebraska -20 over La Tech
Obviously, some of these lines have moved; your call if you buy onto key points or not.
GL everyone and I look forward to contributing to this site in the future; I also have to find a suitable logo for myself (or avatar or whatever it's called!).
Here are some week 1 plays I wrote up:
Toledo @ Iowa St - Not a big trend bettor, but if the coaches have been in place a while, I think they must be considered. That’s the case here with Amstutz entering his 6th year and McCarney entering his 12th. Toledo is 0-6 ats in road NC games and 2-8 ats on grass, showing they prefer the cozy confines of the Glass Bowl, where all they really play is MAC teams. Iowa St has been a solid HF as of late, and are 17-9 ats overall in that role under McCarney. Toledo returns their most starters in 5 years, but lost NFL prospect QB Gradowski (sp?) to graduation. They have one of the top offenses and defenses in the MAC. We all know about the potential of the ISU offense this year and they should have their way against a Toledo defense that Northcoast only found worthy of placing two players on their 4 MAC All conference squads. Key to this game will be the young Toledo Qb Cochran, who has put up fine numbers in limited action, against a young Cyclone defense. I fully expect ISU to get in the high 30’s here, so it’s a matter of what happens on the other side of the ball. In their only game w/o Gradowski LY, the Rockets got waxed in Fresno. Naturally, the Rockets should fare better with all this time to get the new qb acclimated. Toledo had a solid year LY, but their schedule was a joke, and the best team they beat was a floundering UTEP team in the bowl. ISU has very high aspirations this year and they won’t want to slip up in the opener against a MAC team; Amstutz appears to treat these games as more of a prep for MAC play and a loss won’t hurt the Rockets season too much, while it could send the Cyclones into an immediate tailspin. The initial total released on this game was 51 (kalind, where are you?), but I think it will be closer to 60 when it’s officially released. Just don’t think the Rockets can keep up here on offense; if they get into the mid-30’s and cover, I will simply tip my cap to them.
Play: Iowa St -7 (-113) over Toledo
Northwestern -3 over Miami (Oh) – Likely my only play on NW this year, as I am not in the habit of playing teams with 31 yr old head coaches that have never even been a coordinator; add-in the fact the ‘Cats are breaking in a new QB on the road, this wager looks a little crazy. This is more of a gut play than the others and also a fade against an overrated Redhawk team that should be in the bottom half of the MAC this year. Late HC Walker was a great gameday coach, as he seemed to will his team to victory on occasion. I feel that will carry over here in the first game, as a more talented NW team will come in quite focused for this one; focus, more talent and a light spread should offset a decent Redhawk homefield. Emotionally, this is like a must-win for the ‘Cats. Northwestern has a great OL and RB, and Miami is rebuilding their DL and will have to completely sell out to stop the run, making life easier on the new ‘Cat QB.
Play on: Northwestern -3 (-107) over Miami (Oh)
Utah @ UCLA- Here we have one of the luckiest teams last year going against one of the unluckiest teams from last year; UCLA was outgained by almost 75 yds/game in P10 play last year but still managed to pull off a 6-2 mark. They are also replacing both coordinators, their QB, their heart and soul RB and ST extraordinaire Drew and their best player TE Lewis. Their DL will be improved as long as Brown stays healthy, but their back 7 would be average in the MWC, much less the B10. The strength of their team is at WR and if new, highly touted qb Olsen breaks in quickly, they should still have a good offense. Utah averaged nearly 500 yds in offense last year, but barely got to 30ppg; they have two solid QB’s and regardless who starts, they should be effective. They have the best defense in the MWC, and one of the best secondaries in the country led by CB Weddle to match up with UCLA’s offensive strength. UCLA is 10-2 ats in home openers, but Utah is mind-blowing 21-4 ats as an AD, showing they handle adversity well. Just feel I have the better defense, better QB (to start the season anyway) and am catching a generous amount of points in a game I feel Utah has a 50% chance of winning outright. I would play this @ 3’ or greater.
Play on: Utah + over UCLA
La Tech @ Nebraska- already lost ‘Husker CB Bowman to injury, illustrating the risks of laying bets down early. So it goes…I still like this play as I have Nebraska as an underrated team this year, and clearly the 3rd best in the B12 (sorry Tech!). Whenever one lays big points (>14 or so), one has to be assured of getting the underdogs offense off the field quickly; should be no problem here as the Bulldogs will again be a running team with a QB that has tossed the ball about 6 or 7 times in his career; Nebraska has a top 15 defense and special teams, which should set up plenty of short fields against Tech. NU’s offense is another year along in Callahan’s systems, and should ultimately move the ball easily against a tiring Tech defense. Tech lost in the swamp with a better team 41-3 to open last year; coming off that stirring bowl win vs Big Blue, I think Callahan and the Huskers want to make a statement early on with USC looming on the horizon. (Note: the USC game is in two weeks, so look ahead shouldn’t be a factor). Hard to see La Tech scoring in this one and as long as Nebraska can get to no more than 31, I feel this bet should cash.
Play on: Nebraska -20 over La Tech
Obviously, some of these lines have moved; your call if you buy onto key points or not.
GL everyone and I look forward to contributing to this site in the future; I also have to find a suitable logo for myself (or avatar or whatever it's called!).
