Hello everyone and some week 1 writeups...

horses

Brady licks Marino's knob
This is a virtual cornucopia of allstar CFB 'cappers in here! Kudos to all that worked to create this site; so often one can hear bitching about the way things are or are not, but it's not to often people take the initiative to do something about it...again, good job! (I have a feeling this site manifested itself down in CR, lol!).

Here are some week 1 plays I wrote up:

Toledo @ Iowa St - Not a big trend bettor, but if the coaches have been in place a while, I think they must be considered. That’s the case here with Amstutz entering his 6th year and McCarney entering his 12th. Toledo is 0-6 ats in road NC games and 2-8 ats on grass, showing they prefer the cozy confines of the Glass Bowl, where all they really play is MAC teams. Iowa St has been a solid HF as of late, and are 17-9 ats overall in that role under McCarney. Toledo returns their most starters in 5 years, but lost NFL prospect QB Gradowski (sp?) to graduation. They have one of the top offenses and defenses in the MAC. We all know about the potential of the ISU offense this year and they should have their way against a Toledo defense that Northcoast only found worthy of placing two players on their 4 MAC All conference squads. Key to this game will be the young Toledo Qb Cochran, who has put up fine numbers in limited action, against a young Cyclone defense. I fully expect ISU to get in the high 30’s here, so it’s a matter of what happens on the other side of the ball. In their only game w/o Gradowski LY, the Rockets got waxed in Fresno. Naturally, the Rockets should fare better with all this time to get the new qb acclimated. Toledo had a solid year LY, but their schedule was a joke, and the best team they beat was a floundering UTEP team in the bowl. ISU has very high aspirations this year and they won’t want to slip up in the opener against a MAC team; Amstutz appears to treat these games as more of a prep for MAC play and a loss won’t hurt the Rockets season too much, while it could send the Cyclones into an immediate tailspin. The initial total released on this game was 51 (kalind, where are you?), but I think it will be closer to 60 when it’s officially released. Just don’t think the Rockets can keep up here on offense; if they get into the mid-30’s and cover, I will simply tip my cap to them.
Play: Iowa St -7 (-113) over Toledo

Northwestern -3 over Miami (Oh) – Likely my only play on NW this year, as I am not in the habit of playing teams with 31 yr old head coaches that have never even been a coordinator; add-in the fact the ‘Cats are breaking in a new QB on the road, this wager looks a little crazy. This is more of a gut play than the others and also a fade against an overrated Redhawk team that should be in the bottom half of the MAC this year. Late HC Walker was a great gameday coach, as he seemed to will his team to victory on occasion. I feel that will carry over here in the first game, as a more talented NW team will come in quite focused for this one; focus, more talent and a light spread should offset a decent Redhawk homefield. Emotionally, this is like a must-win for the ‘Cats. Northwestern has a great OL and RB, and Miami is rebuilding their DL and will have to completely sell out to stop the run, making life easier on the new ‘Cat QB.

Play on: Northwestern -3 (-107) over Miami (Oh)

Utah @ UCLA- Here we have one of the luckiest teams last year going against one of the unluckiest teams from last year; UCLA was outgained by almost 75 yds/game in P10 play last year but still managed to pull off a 6-2 mark. They are also replacing both coordinators, their QB, their heart and soul RB and ST extraordinaire Drew and their best player TE Lewis. Their DL will be improved as long as Brown stays healthy, but their back 7 would be average in the MWC, much less the B10. The strength of their team is at WR and if new, highly touted qb Olsen breaks in quickly, they should still have a good offense. Utah averaged nearly 500 yds in offense last year, but barely got to 30ppg; they have two solid QB’s and regardless who starts, they should be effective. They have the best defense in the MWC, and one of the best secondaries in the country led by CB Weddle to match up with UCLA’s offensive strength. UCLA is 10-2 ats in home openers, but Utah is mind-blowing 21-4 ats as an AD, showing they handle adversity well. Just feel I have the better defense, better QB (to start the season anyway) and am catching a generous amount of points in a game I feel Utah has a 50% chance of winning outright. I would play this @ 3’ or greater.
Play on: Utah + over UCLA

La Tech @ Nebraska- already lost ‘Husker CB Bowman to injury, illustrating the risks of laying bets down early. So it goes…I still like this play as I have Nebraska as an underrated team this year, and clearly the 3rd best in the B12 (sorry Tech!). Whenever one lays big points (>14 or so), one has to be assured of getting the underdogs offense off the field quickly; should be no problem here as the Bulldogs will again be a running team with a QB that has tossed the ball about 6 or 7 times in his career; Nebraska has a top 15 defense and special teams, which should set up plenty of short fields against Tech. NU’s offense is another year along in Callahan’s systems, and should ultimately move the ball easily against a tiring Tech defense. Tech lost in the swamp with a better team 41-3 to open last year; coming off that stirring bowl win vs Big Blue, I think Callahan and the Huskers want to make a statement early on with USC looming on the horizon. (Note: the USC game is in two weeks, so look ahead shouldn’t be a factor). Hard to see La Tech scoring in this one and as long as Nebraska can get to no more than 31, I feel this bet should cash.
Play on: Nebraska -20 over La Tech

Obviously, some of these lines have moved; your call if you buy onto key points or not.
GL everyone and I look forward to contributing to this site in the future; I also have to find a suitable logo for myself (or avatar or whatever it's called!).
 
Horses, good to see you here!
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I agree with all those plays and I will be on all but the Nebraska play. It's not that I disagree with Nebraska at all, I'm just trying to limit myself to no more than 12 plays a week.

Good luck, dude!! Look forward to seeing your thoughts on CFB!
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts Horses, glad to hear you'll be around.

I have posted plays on Iowa State, Northwestern, and I have to do a write up on Nebraska yet. They all look like real good plays imo.

If you need help finding something you want for an avatar, just let me know and I'll go looking for it. Otherwise we have all the major league teams from the 4 major sports and about 80 college ones uploaded you can choose from on here.

And SoonerBS aka Denfulks, just can't support Nebraska, lol, not sure why...
 
Someboys get this guy an Aztec avatar! Horses is one of the better cappers around in college football and knows his shit fellas. Big time addition to the forum and good seeing you buddy.

:cheers:
 
Fondybadger said:
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Horses, glad to hear you'll be around.

I have posted plays on Iowa State, Northwestern, and I have to do a write up on Nebraska yet. They all look like real good plays imo.

If you need help finding something you want for an avatar, just let me know and I'll go looking for it. Otherwise we have all the major league teams from the 4 major sports and about 80 college ones uploaded you can choose from on here.

And SoonerBS aka Denfulks, just can't support Nebraska, lol, not sure why...

I didn't say I didn't support the play, I just will not be playing it personally. It's not showing up in my Top Ten of plays I want to play for opening week.
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SHSUHorn said:
Someboys get this guy an Aztec avatar! Horses is one of the better cappers around in college football and knows his shit fellas. Big time addition to the forum and good seeing you buddy.

:cheers:

Agreed. I always enjoyed reading his posts.
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Horses would either of these two avatars work for you? The SDST University is with the building picture, btw. Didn't attach like I had hoped.
 
Fondy,

Thank you for the welcoming messages and looking up the Avatar's; I prefer the one in the lower left of your post above (not the building). Can you make that happen or should I do it myself?

Sooner, 'Horn, Huntdog
Thank you all for the welcome and the kind words; good to see the B12 folks bustin' on each other.
 
Horses--:cheers:

Nice to see ya over here and looking forward to seeing you at Players on 9/9.

As far as SDSU avatars go, this makes me think of SDSU the most:

View attachment 190

Alison Waite--SDSU Student and May 2006 Playboy Playmate
 
horses said:
Fondy,

Thank you for the welcoming messages and looking up the Avatar's; I prefer the one in the lower left of your post above (not the building). Can you make that happen or should I do it myself?

Sooner, 'Horn, Huntdog
Thank you all for the welcome and the kind words; good to see the B12 folks bustin' on each other.

Oh, so that's what you call it. LOL
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Nice picks. So far I agree with Utah and Iowa State but dont like your Northwestern pick at all. good luck bro
 
Just wanted to say hi, on my way out but I'll get into these a little more as we get closer to kickoff. Welcome to the gig bro...
 
welcome aboard, horses

it keeps getting better by the day...glad you made it over here.

the cfb forum will be very sweet this yearmoney;
 
Horses...

Great to have you here. You are one of the best reads on college football anywhere.

Already on Utah and ISU...both look great....and I am leaning the other 2 as well.

Great write-ups..look forward to more great thoughts.money;
 
Yo horses! It's dmac1824 from covers.com. Glad to see you on the board bro! I like all of the plays. GL :hammer:
 
Again, thanks for the all the kind words; haven't conversed with a few of you in a while, but I look forward to posting more in this forum. Sooner is right about the other forum turning into 'kiddyland' around mid-august...it has begun.

DMAC (Aztec4life)...thanks to you and RJ for steering me over here; RJ...what can I say...how can I beat that Avatar?! Swwwwweeeeeeeet!

Not that i was getting that every nite, but man, when I sit and daydream...do I ever miss college!

Thanks for taking care of me Fondy; sorry 'bout Stocco, but it looks like he may miss the first couple games...maybe even the game against my Aztecs??! :drink:
 
Holy crap rj! She is hot!!!

:bow: SDSU hotties


horses - the more I look into the Toledo @ Iowa St. game, the more I'm liking the Cyclones. I got 1 Unit on Iowa St. -7 and 1 Unit on Nebraska -20.5. :shake:
 
horses said:
Thanks for taking care of me Fondy; sorry 'bout Stocco, but it looks like he may miss the first couple games...maybe even the game against my Aztecs??! :drink:

Sunday's Journal Sentinel in Milwaukee had a little blurb on a picture saying that Stocco should be able to go week 1 and continue his 26 game starting streak.
 
horses your back.... love the picks on all of em already bol this season send me your top 3 picks inorder of strength if you want to be in the consensus i set up
 
pags11, I know...I remember your countdown thread from all the way back in April.
 
Starting to round out the rest of the week 1 card; I normally play about 6-8 games a week along with a total or two, though I am leery about totals until I get my arms around the new rules.

Wisconsin v Bowling Green (in Cleveland) - Badger QB Stocco looks like he will play in this one; BG lost virtually all their skill players, including QB Jacobs. His replacement is very talented, but is suspended for this game and BG will be starting a RFr who has never played; not good going against a team that will dominate the LOS. On the other side, the Badger offense is no prize, even with Stocco. RB Calhoun and most of the receivers are being replaced, Wisconsin is returning about 2 receptions at WR. Nevertheless, I think they will be set up with short fields frequently in this game, as BG has a true frosh punter. BG will be starting up to 6 true frosh in this game...not good against the Big 10. All indications are that new Badger HC Bileima (sp?) will be more aggressive than his predeccesor in going for the jugular...finally, no fans travel like Badger fans...expecting a HFA for the favorite.
Play on: Wisconsin -9' (-115) over Bowling Green
 
Head Coach has not made an announcement yet, but indications look good. If it's announced that Stocco won't play, I will probably buy 1/2 of this bet back; like I said, not definite, but reading btw the lines, I think he will play.

Still can't get over that hottie you posted in this thread; everytime I open this thread and scroll down, I have to pause to take another look.

You ready for tomorrow nite?
 
Glad you like the Aztec chica. There's more where that came from.

Oh yeah. Got my tix and ready to go to the Q.

I know Fondy got this at -10 and I've got the line capped the same. Without Stocco I would have to say no play. With Stocco, it may be a 2 TD affair.

Thoughts?
 
I would not have made this bet if I didn't think Stocco was likely to play; I think if and when they announce he will play, the spread might get bumped over 10 and I wanted to avoid that.

If they announce he won't play, I don't think the line will go down, and I will buy out of some of my bet. I realize I am taking a bit of a risk here, but I really want to play this game, and I am intent on getting it less than 10...hence the bet now.

Are you saying Fondy is playing this game at 10 or he thought the spread is right on at 10?
 
No, Fondy has it at -10. I personally think the spread is right on at -10.

What I was asking was what do you think it should be since you are seeing value in the play?
 
Wow, you and I are far apart on that one.

With you on all others except Utah. Might still take that one at +3.5. I'm also kicking around the idea of playing the ML.

Back from the East Coast yet?
 
I just got back last nite actually...

thinking about going to game now but I got a ton to do since I've been gone so long. My friend got me a ticket so I doubt I'll be able to resist. If I do go, and I'll let you know, we hang out in A3 at the Q.

It'd be great to meet you, but we can even handle that on a Saturday at Player's as well...think I'll be there on the 2nd now...didn't think I was going to return until AFTER labor day, but I got everything handled...so far, it feels weird being back in SD, but it won't take long to get acclimated.

Later...going to lunch.
 
chaz, very good question. I plan to put together a new thread, with a writeup on that game. To answer your question though...I made this spread San Diego St -1, so I don't see a lot of value there. I see the spread has been bet up to 2' at Pinnacle, so somebody is jumping on my Aztecs.
 
BOL Horses

On just about all of your plays as well...so i obviously hope you have a kick ass weekend, bro.:cheers:
 
I have $300 on wisky -10 and $200 wisky 1h... Everything I see says stocco will play - if he isn't playing i'll make a thread annoucning that.
 
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