Friday, July 27 SDQL

JROCK1966

Pretty much a regular
Overall YTD: -$355.06

Since July 5th: +$153.59

-$13.30 last night. Had some good picks and had some bad picks. Would've stayed positive but I'm unfortunately addicted to parlays.
:bong:


Royals @ Yankees: Looks like a Friday night public bloodbath / upset special brewing!! Check out pic 1. Terrible win % for home teams on a Friday AASB and are coming off a home game which they won by 4 or more runs. 4-14 SU record for 22%. Active on the Yanks tonight! Furthermore, CC is on 6+ days rest which is his worst. See pic 5. Furthermore, the Yanks are 1-1 at home in this situation. They lost 8-5 with Gray on the bump and won with Loaisiga. See pic 2 as it's still a 50% shot of losing. Furthermore, let's analyze a past game that seems to resemble tonight's line and total. Take a look at July 23, 2010. AJ Burnett shutout the Royals and beat Bannister. Burnett was in the midst of a great run in the month of July. See pic 4. He was 3-1 with an ERA of 2.00. Meanwhile Bannister was horrible and that year was his last in the majors. See pic 3. Today's starters both have comparable ERAs of 3.20 for Keller and CC's is at 3.51 so tonight's game does not compare to that one at all. Lastly, early reports of consensus, from my fav site at looking at that stuff, had the Yankees at a whopping 98%! I do not recommend laying almost 3-1 odds with CC tonight guys.

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Rays @ Orioles: Thinking of continuing to fade the O's. Tonight's situation is winless for the home team and Cashner is winless when at home and coming off a quality start. Archer is at his best in the month of July as well.

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Twins @ Red Sox: Is the top of the AL East on upset watch tonight? Sale is 1-3 this season on Fridays, is 5-3 this season when the Red Sox are coming off a non-quality start so a loss tonight is not out of reach. Lynn pitched extremely well in his only start at Fenway. Twins are probably have a "Hey! We got nothing to lose attitude" tonight as they've won 4 in a row. Hmmmm......

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Indians @ Tigers: I love the counter-intuitive stuff. Check out pics 1, 2, & 3 below. As I increase the win differential (road team - home team) from 0 to 5 to 10 wins, the win percentage for the home team increases from 64% to 66% to 70%. Common sense says that should not be happening but it is! Tigers are 8-2 in home starts by Mike Fiers this season as well. How can one not take a shot at a +170 dog with these numbers? Cleveland consensus currently at 88% on ESPN Pickcenter. Let's just call tonight "Dog-Day Friday!"

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Indians @ Tigers: I love the counter-intuitive stuff. Check out pics 1, 2, & 3 below. As I increase the win differential (road team - home team) from 0 to 5 to 10 wins, the win percentage for the home team increases from 64% to 66% to 70%. Common sense says that should not be happening but it is! Tigers are 8-2 in home starts by Mike Fiers this season as well. How can one not take a shot at a +170 dog with these numbers? Cleveland consensus currently at 88% on ESPN Pickcenter. Let's just call tonight "Dog-Day Friday!"

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Carlos has lost as many as he's won at Comerica Park.

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My Card for Friday:

  1. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Kansas City Royals* +1½ +120 vs New York Yankees
    B Keller - R Listed C Sabathia - L Listed
    Risking $20.00 To Win $24.00
  2. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Kansas City Royals* +255 vs New York Yankees
    B Keller - R Listed C Sabathia - L Listed
    Risking $20.00 To Win $51.00
  3. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 969 Minnesota Twins* +1½ +155 vs Boston Red Sox
    L Lynn - R Listed C Sale - L Listed
    Risking $20.00 To Win $31.00
  4. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 969 Minnesota Twins* +318 vs Boston Red Sox
    L Lynn - R Listed C Sale - L Listed
    Risking $20.00 To Win $63.60
  5. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 972 Detroit Tigers* +1½ +100 vs Cleveland Indians
    C Carrasco - R Listed M Fiers - R Listed
    Risking $20.00 To Win $20.00
  6. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 972 Detroit Tigers* +183 vs Cleveland Indians
    C Carrasco - R Listed M Fiers - R Listed
    Risking $20.00 To Win $36.60
  7. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 967 Tampa Bay Rays* -1½ +105 vs Baltimore Orioles
    C Archer - R Listed A Cashner - R Listed
    Risking $20.00 To Win $21.00
  8. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 967 Tampa Bay Rays* -142 vs Baltimore Orioles
    C Archer - R Listed A Cashner - R Listed
    Risking $28.40 To Win $20.00
Parlays: 2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs:

#!

  1. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Kansas City Royals* +255 vs New York Yankees
    B Keller - R Listed C Sabathia - L Listed
  2. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 967 Tampa Bay Rays* -2½ +170 vs Baltimore Orioles
    C Archer - R Listed A Cashner - R Listed
  3. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 969 Minnesota Twins* +318 vs Boston Red Sox
    L Lynn - R Listed C Sale - L Listed
  4. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 972 Detroit Tigers* +183 vs Cleveland Indians
    C Carrasco - R Listed M Fiers - R Listed
Risking $11.00 (11 parlays at $1.00) To Win $308.74

#2

  1. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Kansas City Royals* -1½ +400 vs New York Yankees
    B Keller - R Listed C Sabathia - L Listed
  2. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 967 Tampa Bay Rays* -2½ +170 vs Baltimore Orioles
    C Archer - R Listed A Cashner - R Listed
  3. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 969 Minnesota Twins* -1½ +483 vs Boston Red Sox
    L Lynn - R Listed C Sale - L Listed
  4. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 972 Detroit Tigers* -1½ +320 vs Cleveland Indians
    C Carrasco - R Listed M Fiers - R Listed
Risking $11.00 (11 parlays at $1.00) To Win $758.73

#3

  1. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Kansas City Royals* -2½ +650 vs New York Yankees
    B Keller - R Listed C Sabathia - L Listed
  2. 7/27/2018 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 967 Tampa Bay Rays* -2½ +170 vs Baltimore Orioles
    C Archer - R Listed A Cashner - R Listed
  3. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 969 Minnesota Twins* -2½ +885 vs Boston Red Sox
    L Lynn - R Listed C Sale - L Listed
  4. 7/27/2018 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 972 Detroit Tigers* -2½ +538 vs Cleveland Indians
    C Carrasco - R Listed M Fiers - R Listed
Risking $11.00 (11 parlays at $1.00) To Win $2,479.88


BOLTA!!
 
Rangers @ Astros: Only twice in 6 tries have the Astros scored more than 1 run during a Friday home game and off a day of rest this season. 3 and 4 runs were scored in the other two games. Gallardo has decent splits at Minute Maid park as well. I think we might see a dog night of epic proportions this evening.

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