Friday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 23 Fri 2021

6:05 PM
965Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L-126O 9½
-105
966Baltimore OriolesJ. Lopez -R+116U 9½
-115
6:10 PM
953Washington NationalsE. Fedde -R+239O 7
+103
954New York MetsJ. deGrom -R-268U 7
-123
6:10 PM
967Seattle MarinersY. Kikuchi -L+123O 9½
-105
968Boston Red SoxM. Perez -L+1 Markets-133U 9½
-115
6:10 PM
969New York YankeesJ. Montgomery -L-128O 8½
-110
970Cleveland IndiansL. Allen -L+1 Markets+118U 8½
-110
6:10 PM
971Kansas City RoyalsM. Minor -L-130O 8
-118
972Detroit TigersC. Mize -R+120U 8
-102
6:10 PM
973Toronto Blue JaysS. Matz -L+136O 7
-125
974Tampa Bay RaysT. Glasnow -R-147U 7
+105
6:20 PM
955Arizona DiamondbacksL. Weaver -R+132O 8½
-115
956Atlanta BravesH. Ynoa -R-143U 8½
-105
7:10 PM
975Los Angeles AngelsA. Heaney -L+117O 8
-120
976Houston AstrosZ. Greinke -R+1 Markets-127U 8
+100
7:10 PM
979Pittsburgh PiratesJ. Brubaker -R+130O 8½
-110
980Minnesota TwinsJ. Happ -L-140U 8½
-110
7:15 PM
957Cincinnati RedsS. Gray -R-115O 7½
-117
958St. Louis CardinalsK. Kim -L+105U 7½
-103
7:40 PM
959Philadelphia PhilliesV. Velasquez -R+120O 10½
-110
960Colorado RockiesG. Marquez -R-130U 10½
-110
8:45 PM
961Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R+110O 7½
-110
962San Francisco GiantsA. Wood -L+1 Markets-120U 7½
-110
9:10 PM
963San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R+133O 7½
+103
964Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L+1 Markets-144U 7½
-123
 
CLE 3-0 still batting bottom 1 and never had a chance. Francona sticking to his 7th-8-9 bullpen even though the heart of the lineup was coming up in the 7th, what an idiot

Leans:

April 23fedde
weaverL
KIM
velasquez
alcantara
darvish
kikuchi
ALLENL
MIZE
matz
GREINKE
brubaker
 
Kim only going a few innings in his first start is a concern, whether that's due to a long 1st inning or not. Velocity down on the fastball also bad sign, though StL should have a yuge advantage in the pen. CIN looks like the same ole CIN, but their trustworthy bullpen arms are somehow unable to get outs so far this year. Big problem as a road favorite, Gray usually is good for 4 innings then hits a wall or he'll start out hitting that wall and then be dominant until he throws his 109th pitch

I keep laying off the scary ones that all end up hitting and it's driving me insane. Like sure it'd be easy to give up on this StL wager since there are definite concerns with the starter, but home dog with the better pen gives a lot more space for a short start so long as a lot of runs don't come with it

Kim 11ip 0r in two starts against CIN last season, only 7 Ks in 7:2 ratio but if we get 5 out of him that leaves 12 outs to cover between a hopefully-less-wild Gallegos, Hicks, Cabrera, Reyes and/or PdL/Helsley/Miller if we have to go deeper than those initial 4
 
I want to say Kim had a similarly bad beginning his 1st action last year (velo down, ect) and improved drastically his next outing but I have to look and make sure that accurate. Whether cards can get to grey would probably concern me more than Kim, I agree if they can get grey out should be adv stl against cincy pen who looked awful yesterday and had to get a lot of outs that entire series. Just a matter if cards can take good at bats vs grey? I gotta look at his history vs us cause don’t know off top my head, something I’ll do in morning.
 
I see no reason not to continue playing Ff unders in the fish/sf and sd/lad series, the pitchers just keep getting better going forward and none the offenses hitting all that much.

jays/rays have a great pitching matchup to start that series, can’t wait to look at that one when I get chance 2marro.
 
Yesterday was my first nice winning day of the baseball season. I’ve had some winning days but mostly have just been grinding away. Hope it’s the start of a streak - baseball is usually up there with college basketball as my most profitable sport, but to say it’s been beyond frustrating so far would be an understatement. Let’s have a Friday, gents. May or may not end up heading to Wrigley for my first Cubs game of the year.
 
I was afraid that line might flip to stl as favs, no chance I’m playing them minus anything vs Sonny Grey. Looks like grey velo was fine in his first start, maybe half tick down on 4 seamer but sinker was right in line with his norm. The change, slider, curve were all down right about 1mph, don’t think that a huge deal, spin rate more telling and havnt seen numbers on that.

Grey’s numbers vs cards skewed cause last time they faced he had what I assume his worst outing ever where he walked a bunch and got ran out the game before completing the 1st inning! Other than that start he been great against us, particularly in stl. Current cards havnt seen him a ton, 43 ab’s total w only 7 hits allowed 2 of them being doubles, edman has 4 of those 7 hits! I just don’t think you can trust cardinals offense here. I’d think Sonny goes at least 6 innings and doesn’t allow more than 2-3 runs max. Maybe cards can get him out by 6th and go to work on what seems to be a tired pen at the moment after being asked to get a bunch of outs in the snakes series! But that putting trust in our offense which isn’t something that easy for me to do.

Kim also got knocked around his 1st start but I don’t think it a huge deal, his slider looked as wicked as it was last season getting a bunch of swings and misses, he just wasn’t locating his fastball, something I think will come back pretty quickly as his command drastically improved the last few years in the kbo. I think his arsenal should play well vs reds who like fastballs. It’s damp and still here in the Lou today with temps in the 50s, not the kind of day the ball gonna carry at busch so I like both pitchers to have much better starts this time out.

If you got cards at plus money I’d say you did good but if you can ever get plus on cincy during day today I think that a decent bet also. Line sitting at -105 both ways most places and I think that is spot on. Ff u4 takes a little faith in both pitchers to be better than we’ve seen from them but I think that prob the best play in this game, if there is one. It be nice to know the ump, think I’d pass if it was a over guy w small zone, we get a good ump with nice big k-zone and I’d be happy to play the Ff u4. It close enough I think ump a deciding factor here.
 
Ticketwindow said:
First glance I like Brewers
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I don’t trust either those pitchers at the moment. I think their histories vs these lineups justifies the price, shaw the only brewer that has had any success vs Hendricks while Cubs have knocked anderson around. Hendricks only good start this season was against milw. Cubs have hit lefties much better than righties. Gun to head I think Cubs win but I’m not interested laying the juice so hope I’m wrong if you play them.
 
Cubs seeing third straight lefty. Been hitting them well so far this year after making it a priority over the offseason. I think Hendricks gets right. Haven't laid it with the Cubs yet though.
 
Ryno14 said:
Cubs seeing third straight lefty. Been hitting them well so far this year after making it a priority over the offseason. I think Hendricks gets right. Haven't laid it with the Cubs yet though.
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i was thinking maybe a Ff -.5 or something if I was gonna play it. They winning some games now but I dunno I like them enough to be laying -140ish, ya know how I feel bout that in general! Lol. I gotta be super confident to do it!!! I hadn’t realized this be 3rd straight lefty, I def think that a pretty big advantage on top the fact they been hitting lhp better all season.
 
Hendricks has owned milw so wouldn’t shock me at all he pitched well today, the problem will be his next start I won’t know wtf to think with his only quality outings coming against beers! Lol
 
2daBank said:
i was thinking maybe a Ff -.5 or something if I was gonna play it. They winning some games now but I dunno I like them enough to be laying -140ish, ya know how I feel bout that in general! Lol. I gotta be super confident to do it!!! I hadn’t realized this be 3rd straight lefty, I def think that a pretty big advantage on top the fact they been hitting lhp better all season.
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Meant to ask you this the other day, but what casino do you come up to?
 
2daBank said:
I was afraid that line might flip to stl as favs, no chance I’m playing them minus anything vs Sonny Grey. Looks like grey velo was fine in his first start, maybe half tick down on 4 seamer but sinker was right in line with his norm. The change, slider, curve were all down right about 1mph, don’t think that a huge deal, spin rate more telling and havnt seen numbers on that.

Grey’s numbers vs cards skewed cause last time they faced he had what I assume his worst outing ever where he walked a bunch and got ran out the game before completing the 1st inning! Other than that start he been great against us, particularly in stl. Current cards havnt seen him a ton, 43 ab’s total w only 7 hits allowed 2 of them being doubles, edman has 4 of those 7 hits! I just don’t think you can trust cardinals offense here. I’d think Sonny goes at least 6 innings and doesn’t allow more than 2-3 runs max. Maybe cards can get him out by 6th and go to work on what seems to be a tired pen at the moment after being asked to get a bunch of outs in the snakes series! But that putting trust in our offense which isn’t something that easy for me to do.

Kim also got knocked around his 1st start but I don’t think it a huge deal, his slider looked as wicked as it was last season getting a bunch of swings and misses, he just wasn’t locating his fastball, something I think will come back pretty quickly as his command drastically improved the last few years in the kbo. I think his arsenal should play well vs reds who like fastballs. It’s damp and still here in the Lou today with temps in the 50s, not the kind of day the ball gonna carry at busch so I like both pitchers to have much better starts this time out.

If you got cards at plus money I’d say you did good but if you can ever get plus on cincy during day today I think that a decent bet also. Line sitting at -105 both ways most places and I think that is spot on. Ff u4 takes a little faith in both pitchers to be better than we’ve seen from them but I think that prob the best play in this game, if there is one. It be nice to know the ump, think I’d pass if it was a over guy w small zone, we get a good ump with nice big k-zone and I’d be happy to play the Ff u4. It close enough I think ump a deciding factor here.
Click to expand...

expecting 6 from Gray is too much, i think he's 5 max

But regardless the Cards aren't the home dog i was hoping to grab now so i will wait and see if it pops again. Doubt it
 
i think a Cubs Ff play would eliminate the issue that their pen has thrown a lot more innings than Brewers the last 3-4 days.
 
GWarner27 said:
expecting 6 from Gray is too much, i think he's 5 max

But regardless the Cards aren't the home dog i was hoping to grab now so i will wait and see if it pops again. Doubt it
Click to expand...

since when did Grey become a guy who can’t go 6? Only time aware of was the last month of ‘20 but I’ve been dismissing a great deal of things that happened in ‘20 for obvious reasons. His last 2-3 starts he has made here at busch he has went 6+. Between the pitcher friendly park and cards propensity to swing at everything i have little doubt he goes at least 5, if it wasn’t the fact it only his second start I’d be confident saying at least 6. I still give him a decent chance of that. I don’t think that necessarily means cards a bad play, I agree at plus money they probably the right side, I think that goes for both teams tho, the pk line is spot on imo.
 
No clue why the fish price is rising? I’d prob have looked to back my guy alcontera at anything plus but now it approaching +120! I have total faith in him, the question is can fish give him any help? Wood shut them down for 5 innings last time out in his 1st start of the season, fish have the 6th best ops in baseball against lefties. I gotta believe seeing him again so soon works in their favor, More so than giants seeing alcontera again cause id think pure power not as easy to adjust to. giants did get to alcontera in the 7th inning last time, I think that was more him wearing down than being figured out. No question I’m playing the Ff u3.5, think fish ml a must as well.
 
2daBank said:
No clue why the fish price is rising? I’d prob have looked to back my guy alcontera at anything plus but now it approaching +120! I have total faith in him, the question is can fish give him any help? Wood shut them down for 5 innings last time out in his 1st start of the season, fish have the 6th best ops in baseball against lefties. I gotta believe seeing him again so soon works in their favor, More so than giants seeing alcontera again cause id think pure power not as easy to adjust to. giants did get to alcontera in the 7th inning last time, I think that was more him wearing down than being figured out. No question I’m playing the Ff u3.5, think fish ml a must as well.
Click to expand...
How much longer of last place play from the Cardinals until you become a full fledged Marlins fan? I think you are well on your way!
 
Ryno14 said:
How much longer of last place play from the Cardinals until you become a full fledged Marlins fan? I think you are well on your way!
Click to expand...

lmao. Hadn’t thought bout it. Baseball can just become like football for me, I like whoever cashing tickets!!

cardinals are fine, I mean not really cause this the 1st time in a long time I don’t have any faith in their pitching, still in the central they will be right in mix as they all play middling baseball. Milw the only team I think scares me cause of those stud pitchers but they can’t hit. At some point goldy ops gonna start climbing out the dumps! He has a ops in the .600s despite being top 5 in hard contact rate! I’ve been starting to hear rumors of a trade for Scherzer even tho I don’t buy it (would be awesome!).

it does make sense I like the fish tho, part the reason our embarrassment of riches in the young pitching department has dried up cause we sent 2 aces and what appears to be a ok back of rotation piece to fish for that shitbag Ozuna. Im not gonna blast cards for that, at the time nobody knew what a lazy piece of shit Ozuna was!! I didn’t even know who Gallen was let alone how awesome he was gonna be! I did cry a little over Alcontera but I mean ya gotta give up some good to get what was supposed to be answer to our cleanup spot for next 5-6 years!!! I know fish traded gallen but look what they got, I’d kill to have Jazz Chisholm!! That kid looks like the real deal to me. Unlike cards trades which have mostly sucked for us that was a good trade for both teams as Marlins so stacked with pitching giving up gallen didn’t even hurt!! They needed position players.

fish seriously have 3 starters with ace stuff when Sixto gets back, another guy in Lopez who a amazing number 4 in rotation! Yes the offense leaves something to be desired still but I like Rojas, Chisholm could be really good, marte and Dickerson fine players. I don’t love Duval as the cleanup hitter but I mean if they could find a legit stud for that role they wouldn’t be too shabby offensively.
 
Well just yesterday we talked a great deal bout how muts don’t give Degrom help, their record being 37-42 in his starts since ‘18 and here we are wit a chance to get north of +250!!! Or take the +1.5 runs at a less generous +115 . Doesn’t that kinda scream it gonna be close? 1.35 gap between the ml and rl is huge isn’t it?

can we trust Fedde against a struggling Mets lineup who known for not giving degrom support? In fairly limited times facing him mets hitters have a .713 collective ops. His last 2 starts been solid compiling a 14:3 k/bb rate and allowing 2 runs in 9.2 innings of work (obviously he hasn’t went deep going 4.2 then 5 innings in last start).

I think I can make a case there cause for some optimism with Fredde increased k rate and potential for improvement on his surface stats. He was a 1st round pick at one point so there has to be talent! the velo on his cutter, sinker, and splitter are all up a significant amount. It has made his cutter much more effective. He has gotten better every time out this year (granted he had to be better than his 1st start!). So Mets seeing a guy that looks different from previous encounters. Mets scored 16 runs on their 6 game road trip at coors and then wrigley with wind blowing out!! 2.66 runs a game at those 2 parks is about as bad it gets.

I feel like almost have to take a shot at this price! Think I will attempt to take advantage them allowing me to parlay the rl wit total and do a nats rl/under parlay as I can’t imagine nats have a chance if it goes over, we know it almost a certainty degrom is dominant!
 
I love me some glastnow but damn matz has looked good and Jays pen been way better than Rays. Pretty hefty price tag in what should be a low scoring battle. Can Jays at least take good at bats to try and get glastnow pitch count up? If they can get him out the game no later than 6 I think they give themselves a chance, if he goes deeper than that it probably a wrap.
 
2daBank said:
I love me some glastnow but damn matz has looked good and Jays pen been way better than Rays. Pretty hefty price tag in what should be a low scoring battle. Can Jays at least take good at bats to try and get glastnow pitch count up? If they can get him out the game no later than 6 I think they give themselves a chance, if he goes deeper than that it probably a wrap.
Click to expand...
Still April, 6 innings is considered a workload yet
 
Oh shit. This a bad break for Cubs backers, they were fixing to light anderson up and what happened he got hurt? Faked a injury? Lol. I went in other room for a minute and now this other dude warming up!
 
2daBank said:
he has went more than 7 once this year already. Guys been starting to go deeper when their pitch count allows it.
Click to expand...
Maybe but that will not be consistent, remember we're working back into a 6 month season for the first time in 2 years. Plan accordingly.
 
2daBank said:
since when did Grey become a guy who can’t go 6? Only time aware of was the last month of ‘20 but I’ve been dismissing a great deal of things that happened in ‘20 for obvious reasons. His last 2-3 starts he has made here at busch he has went 6+. Between the pitcher friendly park and cards propensity to swing at everything i have little doubt he goes at least 5, if it wasn’t the fact it only his second start I’d be confident saying at least 6. I still give him a decent chance of that. I don’t think that necessarily means cards a bad play, I agree at plus money they probably the right side, I think that goes for both teams tho, the pk line is spot on imo.
Click to expand...

i've owned him in a fantasy keeper league for a while and i've watched him struggle to get that 18th out to complete a QS so many times. Coming off the late start of the year due to injury, i'd bet he won't get 18 outs
 
2daBank said:
No clue why the fish price is rising? I’d prob have looked to back my guy alcontera at anything plus but now it approaching +120! I have total faith in him, the question is can fish give him any help? Wood shut them down for 5 innings last time out in his 1st start of the season, fish have the 6th best ops in baseball against lefties. I gotta believe seeing him again so soon works in their favor, More so than giants seeing alcontera again cause id think pure power not as easy to adjust to. giants did get to alcontera in the 7th inning last time, I think that was more him wearing down than being figured out. No question I’m playing the Ff u3.5, think fish ml a must as well.
Click to expand...

Giants never lose and Fish price continually rises until first pitch almost every game since the market hates them and clearly likes losing money
 
KJ said:
Maybe but that will not be consistent, remember we're working back into a 6 month season for the first time in 2 years. Plan accordingly.
Click to expand...

I think we disagree on what effect last year will have on things. I think it was good for pitchers to have pitched so few innings last year. I suppose it could come into play come august/sept but I don’t think it will, I really believe most will benefit.
 
GWarner27 said:
Giants never lose and Fish price continually rises until first pitch almost every game since the market hates them and clearly likes losing money
Click to expand...

lol. I honestly haven’t noticed that. Just another reason for me to have that crush on fish I developed last year!
 
2daBank said:
I think we disagree on what effect last year will have on things. I think it was good for pitchers to have pitched so few innings last year. I suppose it could come into play come august/sept but I don’t think it will, I really believe most will benefit.
Click to expand...
And I think the difference will be in consistency of arm strength moreso than losing it at the end. Great for fading off a great start for me.
 
GWarner27 said:
i've owned him in a fantasy keeper league for a while and i've watched him struggle to get that 18th out to complete a QS so many times. Coming off the late start of the year due to injury, i'd bet he won't get 18 outs
Click to expand...

id def have to get some plus money to bet he makes it 6! Guess the question is what should price be on that? If you right and he doesn’t make it that far ya gotta believe reds be in trouble. Only cubs pen has walked more hitters than reds and reds relievers have pitched fewer innings! Unless KK gets blown up which I don’t see happening, in this scenario for grey it hard to see reds winning.
 
Cubs just teeing off! I used several in dfs but of course I left Rizzo out against I thought a lefty, I used Contreras in all of them and of course he the only Cub not in on the fun! lol. And I didn’t use any the guys below the 5 hole in lineup! Aint that a bitch! I had right idea but didn’t execute it very well!! Lol. At least Bryant, Baez, and Bode scoring well for me!! Contreras goose egg hurts tho!!
 
KJ said:
And I think the difference will be in consistency of arm strength moreso than losing it at the end. Great for fading off a great start for me.
Click to expand...

you fading off great starts already or you mean later in the year? There some guys putting together pretty good starts from what I’ve noticed so far.
 
2daBank said:
you fading off great starts already or you mean later in the year? There some guys putting together pretty good starts from what I’ve noticed so far.
Click to expand...
Maybe starting tonight! May and June for sure then re-evaluate, not an autofade but you know what it takes to build a foundation when it comes to this. Outside of unpredictable bullpens (or really predictable lol) this is the angle I've chosen 1st half.
 
2daBank said:
I love me some glastnow but damn matz has looked good and Jays pen been way better than Rays. Pretty hefty price tag in what should be a low scoring battle. Can Jays at least take good at bats to try and get glastnow pitch count up? If they can get him out the game no later than 6 I think they give themselves a chance, if he goes deeper than that it probably a wrap.
Click to expand...

Jays pen missing it's two best arms and that's a free-swinging lineup. Not my favorite situation, though i like TOR as well
 
GWarner27 said:
Jays pen missing it's two best arms and that's a free-swinging lineup. Not my favorite situation, though i like TOR as well
Click to expand...
our pen, on paper, is better..we traded for beasley to help shore up some of the injuries for now. I'm certain the Jay's DL listed pitchers can compete with the current rotation and pen..
 
Merryweather is shut down for 2 weeks, Romano got up into a session yesterday, Zeuch just landed on the IL, Hatch is 60 day, I think we get Chatwood back today, Pearson on the mend and throwing simulated game, Stripling through bp right now
 
gsro said:
Merryweather is shut down for 2 weeks, Romano got up into a session yesterday, Zeuch just landed on the IL, Hatch is 60 day, I think we get Chatwood back today, Pearson on the mend and throwing simulated game, Stripling through bp right now
Click to expand...

and waht's the deal with Teoscar
 
gsro said:
Rockies O, Stl O, Bal O, Detroit ML, Fish U are all on radar for me
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Im terrible finding overs but it sure tempting in Colorado with that gas can phillies letting start again!! I almost feel dumb passing it up cause who knows how many chances we get before he back out of rotation?
 
GWarner27 said:
and waht's the deal with Teoscar
Click to expand...
should have been cleared today to return to the facility. He had the rona, there are a few on the team that declined the vaccine and he was one of them including Bo. Springer is back this weekend apparently. *eye roll* I'll believe it when I see it
 
KJ said:
Maybe starting tonight! May and June for sure then re-evaluate, not an autofade but you know what it takes to build a foundation when it comes to this. Outside of unpredictable bullpens (or really predictable lol) this is the angle I've chosen 1st half.
Click to expand...

im not sure I agree with premise but I hope to hell you right and we find a sneaky play to make some money on! Lol. I’ll def be keeping a eye on when you start up!!
 
2daBank said:
Im terrible finding overs but it sure tempting in Colorado with that gas can phillies letting start again!! I almost feel dumb passing it up cause who knows how many chances we get before he back out of rotation?
Click to expand...
ya he's been very susceptible to the flyballthis year..gl @ coors with it lol. Hate trusting phillies bats, but they pour on runs against mediocre talent and struggle against the top end to produce runs.
 
2daBank said:
im not sure I agree with premise but I hope to hell you right and we find a sneaky play to make some money on! Lol. I’ll def be keeping a eye on when you start up!!
Click to expand...
Well I'm dealing with open enrollment bullshit tonight so don't pay much attention, what a pain in the ass
 
Over half of Velasquez’s pitches came via the four-seamer, which averaged 93.7 mph with the ability to reach 97 mph. The best aspect of this is its above-average life, with 2,435 rpm (81st percentile). Hitters performed very well against this pitch, recording four homers across 88 PA, a .370 wOBA and 91.5 average exit velo. This causes problems when Velasquez gets down in the count, as he then almost exclusively throws fastballs.
 
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