Friday discussion thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gyno
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Initial leans...haven't done extensive research with these

TEX-Good value with Colby, Pineda has been great but Yankees bats are ice cold
Nats RL-Their lineup 1-9 is explosive, good chance they win by 2+ runs, I'll predict 6-2 or 6-3
Mariners -1 more a fade of Estrada than a play on King Felix
Halos ML-can't pass up even money with the superior pitching matchup between Richards and Porcello
Rays ML-Archer is usually solid pitching @ home + Oakland is going through a rough stretch of baseball lately
Cubbies -1 Lester is dealing right now and Collmenter is a straight gas can
 
some interest in brew crew, although they have struggled vs lefties it doesnt make a lot of sense why? stacked with rhb that you would think they could hit lefties. imo wood a pretty hittable lefty.. Wily one of those pitchers i think has pitched better than the numbers suggest this season and in limited abs he has done a good enough job vs key bravos. hopefully the stuff that went down late in a close gm that lead to braves burying them last night lights a bit of a fire under a team that been playing much more competitive baseball of late..

at 1st glance the yanks line seemed pretty damn steep but this kinda has a feel of a gm lewis abnormally low hr/fb ratio starts to adjust back closer to his career numbers in that regard,. fly ball pitcher with a helping wind out to right in the bronx facing a team that lives off homers.. not much to say bout pineda other than he awesome and would expect a bounce back from his last outing. gonna have to find a parlay partner or consider laying the 1.5 cause -180 way more juice than im comfortable laying..
 
would like to see twinks take in enough money to let me get chisox a little cheaper.. sox kinda ran into a buzz saw of tribe pitchers starting to round into form, all guys with nasty swing and miss stuff. i think they get back on track this series against twinks starters who have not been able to get very deep into gms of late.
 
Leans
Nats + M's ML parlay +125ish
Mets/Pirates under (need ump)
Cubs/Dbacks over (need roof status, ump)
Halos ML or Red Sox TT under (4?)

Sure, parlay is among the squarest ever seen by man, but I've been trying to think of reasons not to play it since last night and cannot.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Leans
Nats + M's ML parlay +125ish
Mets/Pirates under (need ump)
Cubs/Dbacks over (need roof status, ump)
Halos ML or Red Sox TT under (4?)

Sure, parlay is among the squarest ever seen by man, but I've been trying to think of reasons not to play it since last night and cannot.
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[TABLE="width: 630"]
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[TH="align: center"]Date[/TH]
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[TH="align: center"]Opponent[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Roof Status[/TH]
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[TD="align: center"]Fri, May 22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6:40 p.m.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
chc.gif
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Open[/TD]
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gsro said:
[TABLE="width: 630"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="align: center"]Date[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Time[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Opponent[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Roof Status[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Fri, May 22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6:40 p.m.[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
chc.gif
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Open[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
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thank you. had not had a chance to look into it yet. great that Dbacks post status on their website so far in advance. wish that other retractable roof teams did the same, but i guess maybe those determinations are more fluid in other climates.
 
Nice strong wind out to right in zona as well. Won't have too many more open roof games so enjoy them while they last lol
 
BiffTFinancial said:
thank you. had not had a chance to look into it yet. great that Dbacks post status on their website so far in advance. wish that other retractable roof teams did the same, but i guess maybe those determinations are more fluid in other climates.
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yea, it's a little harder in Toronto with our fickle weather
 
BiffTFinancial said:
right. i'd imagine that Miami is the same. i do love that one look at Toronto weather for tonight told me that roof will be closed, helps my Felix lean.
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i would guess so, supposed to be around 48 tonight, so don't see a point...dome should be opening up more consistently soon with the weather warming up.
 
Mariners + Felix ML trends:
7-1 this season (lost his last start)
26-9 L35 starts
6-1 L7 road starts
15-3 L18 starts on 5 days rest
10-2 L12 starts as road fave -110 to -150
 
played Nats + M's (+127), Nats RL (-120)

Nats: Games/1-run Wins/2+-run Wins/Losses
All: 41/8/16/17
Home: 18/4/8/6

Phils: Games/Wins/1-run Losses/2+-run Losses
All: 43/18/6/19
Road: 21/6/3/12
 
Richards 14-3 SU since last season on 4 days rest and 11-0 SU L11 on 4 days rest when he threw > 98 pitches last start. The book steamed the hell out of that Red Sox line for no reason last night (other than to get donks to spend more money?) and it looks like it might be the same deal today.
 
First bets yesterday were Washington rl and Washington ml parlayed with Houston plus 1.5
Houston averages 1 more run then Detroit at night.
Reasonable number of Houston players have seen Simon
Almost no one has seen McHugh
Simon seems to be a little weaker on 4 and is playing on b-b 4 day rests
 
BiffTFinancial said:
one look at Toronto weather for tonight told me that roof will be closed, helps my Felix lean.
Click to expand...

Felix 14-1 to the under L15 indoors (since Aug 31, 2010) with 18 runs allowed in 116.1 innings pitched. A lot of those were at Safeco but he went 5-0 to the under on the road in those indoor games @ TB, OAK (Tokyo Dome), TB, TOR, TB.
 
2daBank said:
twinks starters who have not been able to get very deep into gms of late.
Click to expand...

In five games as a Twin Hughes has allowed 19R (17 ER) in 26 IP versus the White Sox (5.88 ERA). Since the 2nd inning versus the Twins back on April 11, Samardzija has allowed 2 runs in his last 18.0 innings pitched at home.
 
austinhous said:
Felix 14-1 to the under L15 indoors (since Aug 31, 2010) with 18 runs allowed in 116.1 innings pitched. A lot of those were at Safeco but he went 5-0 to the under on the road in those indoor games @ TB, OAK (Tokyo Dome), TB, TOR, TB.
Click to expand...

Excellent info, thank you!
 
Colby Lewis +167 is value especially against a cold team.

Received under 7 -125 in mets pirates game. two stud pitchers, pitchers hitting 9th and pitchers park. Lots to like.

Orioles, kinda hot. Marlins kinda cold.
 
austinhous said:
In five games as a Twin Hughes has allowed 19R (17 ER) in 26 IP versus the White Sox (5.88 ERA). Since the 2nd inning versus the Twins back on April 11, Samardzija has allowed 2 runs in his last 18.0 innings pitched at home.
Click to expand...

Since last season White Sox v Twins is 16-9-1 (.640) to the over and 11-1 to the over when the Sox were lined < -115. Hughes is also on 6 days rest, a position in which he has sucked: 2-6 SU L8 (since 2010) with 34R allowed in 31 IP.

NBA, I see 64% on the over but the total has dropped. Help me read the tea leaves and explain the line movement on this side/total.
 
The way Samardzija has pitched at home, combined with the run support he has gotten at home, Phil's propensity to give it up to the Sox, the Twins' bullpen, and the history between these two teams, I see an 8-3 win for the White Sox, 5-3 at minimum.

Just didn't expect to see the Sox get cheaper and the total go down at the same time.
 
Cin +145
NYM +147
Tex +157
SD +165
Was/Hou +158
Was/Sea +129
Was/Bos +153
Was/KC +167
Was/Cubs +136

0.5u each
 
Currently leaning NY
I think my position on Cashner is known.
No clue on Piitt.
Essentially when you bet against NY you fly into a very poor situational play.
You fly into a terrible Days play
And you do not look at Pineda playing on 5 days rest.
None of these things is really very smart.
 
I wish the Mets had better #s against Right Handed pitchers because Syndergaard is a nice young pitcher. Might throw some $ on him just because the price keeps getting better.

Alvarez has poor numbers against this Baltimore lineup....4 HRs, 3 Ks, 3 BB, --> but rainy weather in Miami today, maybe Alvarez pitchers better on Fridays when it rains? (any trends for Alvarez @ night when it has rained, on a friday, in late May?) (kidding of course).

Also tough to trust Jiminez against any lineup....especially with him having above average #s right now, you know he's due for some serious regression.
 
Love Ubaldo this season but much better home, good trends on Alvarez as a dog, he hasn't been good, small lean fish but pass for me.
 
Cubs, KC, Houston all seem to make sense to me. I hope Boston wins but after Austinhous not sure I can bet it
Miami and Colorado might make sense.
 
played Cubs TT over 4 (-115) big. betus hanging another bad number. 5D and Pinny both -140. i'd still consider it at -140 but only for 1u. Yes, -140 is a lot of juice, but (a) Cubs will get 27 outs and there is the possibility of a push, and (b) roof is open and Collmenter is pitching. Only home start this season in which he has looked decent was vs Rocks and roof was closed for that game. In his other 4 home starts, he allowed 5, 7, 4, 11. In 19 road games, Cubs have 0-3 runs in 7 (including last 3 games in SD, much more difficult park for their lineup in my opinion), 3 with exactly 4 runs, and 9 with 5+ runs. i think that Cubs will tattoo Collmenter tonight. may well add a unit on game over so long as ump is favorable.
 
Love Ubaldo this season but much better home, good trends on Alvarez as a dog, he hasn't been good, small lean fish but pass for me. Bal poor road and 1-9 road/night games this season

3rd time around this season O'Sullivan vs Was and Max vs Phi, Max has been great, huge SP mismatch...good trends posted in discussion thread..O'Sullivan 11 IP vs Was this season 10 hits, 6 ER, 3 HR, 1.182 WHIP

I've been wanting to beat Simon, Det not scoring in night games, Hou good dog and good road, Det 1-6 L7 game 2 of series, Hou 8-2 L10 G2's and 8-2 L10 road vs starting RHP, Hou 14-2 L16 McHugh starts, McHugh 4 road starts season 2-0 3.08, 11 road starts '14 1.86, Det hasn't seen McHugh

Colby Lewis last 5 starts 2.61, price is crazy, Pineda better 5 than 6 days rest, Yanks 1-7 L8, Tex 11-1 L12 road vs team with winning record, Lewis 2 starts this season on 5 days rest 2.61

Noah has been very good, this price is crazy too, Cole good but 2 starts vs Mets both home 8.00 era
Some bad Mets trends but also bad pit ones as well: Pit 1-6 L7 games, 1-6 L7 game 1 of series, 1-6 L7 after off day

Good stuff on Felix in discussion thread, another big SP mismatch, Estrada on my fade list, Tor 2-8 L10 off a win and 5-13 off a win this season, Tor current bats poor numbers vs Felix

Leake is a huge price, has been great with exception of his last start, nice rebound spot. Carrasco 4 starts on 4 days rest this season 6.04, 7.11 in 3 home starts this season, 9-17 4.65 career starts in Cle. Cle 3-12 L15 off a win , 8-23 L31 Carrasco home starts, 0-11 L11 Carrasco starts G1 of series, Cle 7-19 L26 G1 of series

Lean Archer but nothing there, poor trend for TB 8-17 after shutting out opponent in previous game L2 seasons

Porcello great in May, 24 -10 career May (teams record), Richards 3 games 1 start Fenway 15.75 era, all 3 experiences were bad, Porcello 2 starts vs LAA in '14 0.64 era

Peralta 3-11 career May, Wood is on 5 days rest, 15 career on 5 days 2.29 era, Wood 2-0 0.87 vs Mil, lean Atl but pass..

SF playing much better since Pence returned, Vogelsong 12.71 in 3 starts vs Col last season, 30.2 IP career at Coors 7.92..lean Col tt over, nothing yet though

Did lean Hughes but 6 days bothers me

Lynn on fade list, Young has been lights out, especially at home. KC 20-6 after off day L2 seasons, Stl 1-6 L7 Lynn road starts

Lester has been good, Collmenter hasn't . Cubs 7-2 L9 G1's,6-1 L7 off a win, Arz 1-6 L7 Collmenter home starts

Cashner's 1-7 record is misleading but his 3.24 era isn't, Cashner is on 5 days rest, 15 career starts on 5 1.98 era, 65 IP vs LAD 2.22 era, Greinke is great but LAD not hitting right now, taking a chance with SD at a nice price
 
Looks like the book came to their senses on CWS and over. Should have hit the o7 -120 my local was offering earlier.
:doink:
 
Gabe said:
Colby Lewis +167 is value especially against a cold team.

Received under 7 -125 in mets pirates game. two stud pitchers, pitchers hitting 9th and pitchers park. Lots to like.

Orioles, kinda hot. Marlins kinda cold.
Click to expand...

that was my initial reaction to the tex line but when i looked closer it really feels to me like yanks tag him for multiple hrs. which should be more than enough against pineda and that pen.. actually considering nyy rl, that may be good for you cause im terrible with those.
 
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