Friday 11/16/07

[JPicks]

39-28 +11.03 Units


Friday Plays

GSW -4'
NOH/MEM O203
Heat/Celtics U185'
Cavs PK
GSW -2' (-115) 1st Half

Lots of leans that I haven't had time to go thru. Mainly just want to keep an eye on a few of them and see which direction they head.


NOH/MEM O203

Yet another Memphis over for me. This time they'll be playing a team that has as much firepower as anybody they've seen thus far. The Grizz are off of two great defensive games, HOU (99, 47%) and MLW (102, 46.7%). Ya I said those were great defensive efforts for Memphis. I'm still not a believer that they're going to be keeping teams near 100 as they faced a HOU team that clearly looked past them and a MLW team that had their 2nd highest point output of the season. The Grizz have given up 110+ in 3 of their 7 games and haven't held an opponent under 98 this year. Some of that has to do with the quick pace they play at, but a good deal of it is due to thier lack of defense.

The Hornets on the other hand have been playing remarkable defense. Hard not to be impressed with the fact that they haven't given up more than 82 points in the last three games. Unless of course you look at their schedule. They roughed up PHI and NJN who happen to both 2 of the 4 worst offensive teams (offensive efficiency). When looking closer at their schedule you'll see that 6 of their 9 opponents (POR, PHI twice) are in the bottom 10 of the league in OE. They've faced three teams that have legitimate offenses (SAN, DEN, & LAL) and I'd say they did a good/great job with one of them (DEN).

Long story short I don't see either team under 100 here and expect a close game down the stretch to hopefully provide some FT's to assist.

Teams are 6-0 O/U in last 6 meetings.


Warriors -4'

First off a bit pissed I missed the 3'. I looked at it and didn't even react. I didn't actually catch the GSW/DET game on Wednesday, and yes I caught a big break on that one, but the fact that the Warriors were able to have a 22 point lead says a few things. Lots of new faces and lineups in GS and I think some players are starting to settle into roles. More than anything else the Warriors leave for a 5 game EC swing and I don't see anyway they'll be 0-7 heading out. The line really speaks for itself when you look at it. Very similar to the ATL/CHA line we saw on Wednesday.

 

[EDizzle]

GL, i'm not a big fan of the games tonight, though they should be good to watch. If I were to take anything I would take Spurs +2 and Bulls +8 and ML. But i'm laying off tonight, I like the Warriors on fri also.

 

[JPicks]

Updated my record from my action junkie play on Thursday. I have no idea why I didn't play Dallas and ended up on the total. Probably wrote in a dozen threads that I liked Dallas. blah, blah, blah............


Heat/Celtics U185'

Well I was hoping this would go up and I suppose it still may, but a recent push at Pinny has me thinking it's going down in the near future.

The Boston Celtics are currently the #1 defense and the #2 offense in the league when looking at efficiency rankings. The Miami Heat have the 29th ranked offense (pre-Wade) and the 11th ranked denfense. The Heat also play at the slowest pace in the league. Many people think all of those Heat rankings are going to suddenly disappear with the presence of Wade. I don't. They shot 39% versus Seattle and that's just pathetic. The Heat will obviously be better in the near future with Wade, but asking them to do that two games in is a bit much. The Heat defense should do an adequate job against Boston. Expecting a 92-83 type game.

 

[JPicks]

EDizzle--Looks like laying off was a good choice. Think the Warriors are solid Friday.

 

[t-dot]

IM liking the Heat/Celtics Under myself.

 

[JPicks]

IM liking the Heat/Celtics Under myself.

I'd love to say it's my favorite game of the day, but I really like all three so far. MEM/NOH Over would probably have a slight advantage over the other two.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Like the Over, JP.

(trend thread=) Stiff Under run 2 days ago, unassigned results making for new run. Under ahead on the season. NOR 4 straight Unders, Mem 1 Over result in 5 games.

 

[doublem9]

JP goodluck tomorrow, check out WIZ@MINNY i love it
with you guys on GSW -4

 

[Killa]

No point in making my own thread with the same plays, so I'll tag along here if you don't mind JP......

2 units on the O203 in Memphis, 2 units on G.S. -4

 

[SF_capper]

nice... really like all of those. Was gonna be on them, bigger now that I see you're on them

 

[SF_capper]

btw, what you think of San Antonio? off a loss (maybe cuz of a lookahead) in instant revenge of the team the beat them earlier. Only fear is SA on a b2b and Houston off 2 straight losses? Who do you think wants it more? Houston off 2 losses or SAS off 1?

 

[SF_capper]

also.. the Jersey line not making much sense to me. Orlando was +3.5 at Cleveland and now -3.5 at Jersey. Is Cleveland really 7 points better than Jersey? also, Miami +11 @ Boston- same number as Jersey was.. Do the books think Jersey sucks that badly?

 

[Songo]

like all of your today's plays JP, gl

 

[Hard Times]

good luck, jpicks.

 

[xpression syst_m]

also.. the Jersey line not making much sense to me. Orlando was +3.5 at Cleveland and now -3.5 at Jersey. Is Cleveland really 7 points better than Jersey? also, Miami +11 @ Boston- same number as Jersey was.. Do the books think Jersey sucks that badly?

Books rarely hang out the true lines; they're simply putting out lines that will hopefully attract balanced volume, so who knows if they think NJ sucks or if the Green Amigos up in Boston are on their way to their first of many titles in a long run dynasty? They obviously feel people are high on the Magic right now and vice versa on NJ. Maybe Orlando should be favored by 15 in this spot, maybe NJ should be favored by 8, but bottom line is you won't be able to tell by looking at the line.

 

[xpression syst_m]

couple of ?'s on the total in MEM:

-which team out of NO and MEM would you guys consider more athletic?

-coach I is slowly making the transition of putting his young G's in the game and slowly phasing out damon, does inexperience at the ball handling position concern or please you (re: down the stretch time/4Q, pros and cons for both sides), considering you have a slick defensive PG on the other side in CP3?

-do you expect the hornets to continue this torrid 3pt shooting %? more specifically, in tonight's game.

-first of 3 in 4, any chance they ease up, even though it's just minny tomorrow night?

-bogut had no problems dominating the grizz interior (and gasol)? with the assortment of big, physical bodies NO can throw at him, how do you think this will affect game flow if Gasol is taken out of his game? (positive or negative?) do you think cycling the O thru Pau helps or hurts this team and the style they are trying to implement?

good luck, im passing on this game and just bored, since i got all my plays for today in already

 

[xpression syst_m]

Warriors -4'

but the fact that the Warriors were able to have a 22 point lead says a few things. Lots of new faces and lineups in GS and I think some players are starting to settle into roles.

-22 point lead was great, but how many times have seen that from this GS team in this new Nellie era (eg. a huge DD lead at home only to see it evaporate)

-i'd say calls with 80/20 in favor of GS as they were building their lead? legit calls? watch the tivo.

-new lineups, yes. settling into roles? no. nellie has no rotation going, he's bringing in players randomly (eg. POB and BW), things will settle down when sjax shows up for the game in Toronto. until then, it's just going to be a frenetic mix of lineups and players. the only constants are basically baron, al and biedrins so far.

-guestimate what % of shots from the Clippers will be high % shots?

good luck, great spot for GS, but they've already had a few of those this year...should win this game b4 going to canada

 

[xpression syst_m]

Heat/Celtics U185'

Did you forget Riley is a master motivator?
Did you forget that SHAQ isn't washed up?
Did you forget that Ricky Davis brought his awesome skill set to South Beach en route to another NBA title?
Did you add Wade's ppg average to the total (He's THAT good or at least the Fighting Donaghy's think so)?
Did you forget the Celtics are going 82-0 and their big 3 can play huge minutes every night with their only worry being if they will cover the spread?

 

[tuck321]

Remember Ricky Davis and Mark Blount both got booted from Boston. Wade is back and Shaq is getting major heat from the newspapers. Not seeing Boston as an easy play today. GL

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL today JP - like those totals JP. Any thoughts on the Hawks and Supersonics at 7.5 pts, no total out yet but interested in a possible over

 

[JPicks]

Like the Over, JP.

(trend thread=) Stiff Under run 2 days ago, unassigned results making for new run. Under ahead on the season. NOR 4 straight Unders, Mem 1 Over result in 5 games.

I'd be lying if I didn't say that I had looked at before the wager. The two over results last night were just the icing on the cake.

JP goodluck tomorrow, check out WIZ@MINNY i love it
with you guys on GSW -4

thanks doublem. gl to you as well. what's your angle on wiz/minny?

No point in making my own thread with the same plays, so I'll tag along here if you don't mind JP......

2 units on the O203 in Memphis, 2 units on G.S. -4

Are you kidding me? Having the great Killa post in my thread is always a privlidge. If you're going to continue to do this I can just re-name the thread in the future. "Friday 11/16/2007 with Special Guest Killa".



SF -- Not thoughts really on SAN/HOU until I see a line. Obviusly hard not to lean SAN off a loss and HOU being with T-MAC, but we'll see. I think XpSy answered the other question pretty well. Really hard to compare teams and lines without looking at the prior scheduling as well. I honestly thought Boston would be a 13 point favorite rather than 11 though.

Songo/HardTimes Thanks guys. GL to you guys as well.

 

[JPicks]

couple of ?'s on the total in MEM:

-which team out of NO and MEM would you guys consider more athletic?
PUSH.

-coach I is slowly making the transition of putting his young G's in the game and slowly phasing out damon, does inexperience at the ball handling position concern or please you (re: down the stretch time/4Q, pros and cons for both sides), considering you have a slick defensive PG on the other side in CP3?
I thought I put that quote in their about the young gurads. Actually like the move as it makes them a much quicker team in transition. Turnovers at the top of the key don't bother me a bit. Turnovers in the paint I can deal w/out. So i'll rank that as a pro.

-do you expect the hornets to continue this torrid 3pt shooting %? more specifically, in tonight's game.
They're playing Memphis so sure why not.

-first of 3 in 4, any chance they ease up, even though it's just minny tomorrow night?
No. Heard Coach Scott on the radio and he was preaching how important it was to win every last game as you never know what will happen down the road. Team is very focused. He used the Jazz as an expample after they were 12-1 to start last year and struggled down the stretch and lost home court to the Rockets.

-bogut had no problems dominating the grizz interior (and gasol)? with the assortment of big, physical bodies NO can throw at him, how do you think this will affect game flow if Gasol is taken out of his game? (positive or negative?) do you think cycling the O thru Pau helps or hurts this team and the style they are trying to implement?

I don't think you can really take Gasol out of his game. He's going to score wether his guy has 4 points or 44 points.

good luck, im passing on this game and just bored, since i got all my plays for today in already

And I might have noticed your bored.

-22 point lead was great, but how many times have seen that from this GS team in this new Nellie era (eg. a huge DD lead at home only to see it evaporate)

lots. this game is a must win. so were the last couple i suppose, but i still don't like the clippers.

-i'd say calls with 80/20 in favor of GS as they were building their lead? legit calls? watch the tivo.

you'll have to send me your tivo. don't have the game on it.

-new lineups, yes. settling into roles? no. nellie has no rotation going, he's bringing in players randomly (eg. POB and BW), things will settle down when sjax shows up for the game in Toronto. until then, it's just going to be a frenetic mix of lineups and players. the only constants are basically baron, al and biedrins so far.

you're right. settling into roles never happens with nellie including last year in the playoffs. like Barnes in there starting though.

-guestimate what % of shots from the Clippers will be high % shots?

a lot probably. If Mobley was healthy I would probably pass on this one.
good luck, great spot for GS, but they've already had a few of those this year...should win this game b4 going to canada

Did you forget Riley is a master motivator?
Did you forget that SHAQ isn't washed up?
Did you forget that Ricky Davis brought his awesome skill set to South Beach en route to another NBA title?
Did you add Wade's ppg average to the total (He's THAT good or at least the Fighting Donaghy's think so)?
Did you forget the Celtics are going 82-0 and their big 3 can play huge minutes every night with their only worry being if they will cover the spread?

Ok now you've just gone crazy. Step away from the keyboard.

 

[JPicks]

Remember Ricky Davis and Mark Blount both got booted from Boston. Wade is back and Shaq is getting major heat from the newspapers. Not seeing Boston as an easy play today. GL

I agree to an extent. I've faded BOS once this year and still haven't played on them yet. I'm not sure I'd play either side today as well, but I think the line is short. The Heat have a million and one reasons to be ready to play, as they did against SEA, and they just keep sucking. When your coach says he's better than you and you come out and lose by 10+ against a winless SEA team you've got some major issues. This isn't an overnight fix imo.

BOL today JP - like those totals JP. Any thoughts on the Hawks and Supersonics at 7.5 pts, no total out yet but interested in a possible over

Not really. I honestly haven't even looked at that game. Sonics off a win while the Hawks may start a nice little winning streak. They really had a brutal schedule to start the season. Injury concerns for ATL. I'd say that ATL wins this one by 5-9 points. The sonics have been very competitve in most of their games so far.

 

[xpression syst_m]

re: gasol, didnt mean mentally taken out of his game if his opposition goes nuts. im talking physically being taken out of his game (or with pf's). his subtle whining here and there concerns me a bit...

re: the turnovers, i would tend to agree as a pro

i played the spurs -400, but not alone obviously

 

[Satyr]

great thread JPicks, you are a great capper sir. :shake: my only (biggest) lean so far is the under in Boston, and I know I'm crazy but I'm actually thinking of laying 11 here.

Thinking Nets +4 as well.

GL tonight.

 

[bee172]

GL tonight JP.

 

[JPicks]

re: gasol, didnt mean mentally taken out of his game if his opposition goes nuts. im talking physically being taken out of his game (or with pf's). his subtle whining here and there concerns me a bit...

re: the turnovers, i would tend to agree as a pro

i played the spurs -400, but not alone obviously

I think Gasol gets enough star treatment on the Grizz team that PF's don't really concern me. He played 3 times against the Hornets last year with West and Chandler both playing and never committed more than 2 fouls. I think you're digging to deep. If it was a playoff series I might entertain the thought a little deeper.

don't really see anyway the spurs lose that game. wish i had the record of HOU w/out T-Mac last year.

 

[JPicks]

great thread JPicks, you are a great capper sir. :shake: my only (biggest) lean so far is the under in Boston, and I know I'm crazy but I'm actually thinking of laying 11 here.

Thinking Nets +4 as well.

GL tonight.

I don't think you'd be crazy laying the points with Boston. Main concern would be the line heading the wrong direction with everyone on BOS. Of course that's happened more than once with Patriots games this year as well and we al know the results.

No thoughts on the Nets/Magic and thanks for the compliment as well.

GL tonight JP.

Thanks bee. Nice work on that DAL/SAN over last night.

 

[JPicks]

CAVS PK

Going against the home town team tonight in a great situational spot. Jazz are in the middle of a little 3 game EC road swing and already won the opener as a small fav/dog depending what line you look at. With the Pacers up tomorrow the Jazz should be assured of a 2-1 road trip here.

The Cavs meanwhile lost their first one back from their long WC trip and this is a game they have to have. At 4-5 it becomes urgent that they grab a victory tonight. They also played Utah down to the wire, losing on a last second DWill shot, last week in Utah. The Jazz haven't won in CLE in three years and we shoud expect a crazy crowd tonight as this will be the 2nd return of Carlos Boozer to Cleveland.

More situational than anthing else. I think it's pretty clear that the Jazz have the better team, but this is a big spot for the Cavs. I'd definitely lean under here as well. One last nugget that supports the play:

- only 31.70% of teams off a 4-5+ game road trip lose both their next games ATS.

--from BC's Road Trip Thread

 

[Slug]

good luck, can't argue with any of them

 

[JPicks]

Thanks SLUG

GSW -2' (-115) 1st Half

SFCapper brought up a good point about this probably being the stronger of the plays on GS. Hope they don't burn me for two units tonight.

 

[Satyr]

I'm on your team JPicks, against a shorter rotation and less talented team...you do make some good points of course. But I'm on the Jazz and the over.

Love the 1st half GSW though, may add them as well. They were money 1st H last season.

:shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

You could also have posted this one, JP

East 2nd game back off 5+ @Home as a Dog ........ 9-4-1

BOL:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

I'm on your team JPicks, against a shorter rotation and less talented team...you do make some good points of course. But I'm on the Jazz and the over.

Love the 1st half GSW though, may add them as well. They were money 1st H last season.

:shake:

Ya I just saw you and ReNew are on them. Somebody's got to win I guess.

You could also have posted this one, JP



BOL:cheers:

I thought about posting that one, but I thought the Cavs opened as favs. Don't you use the posted opener for those threads?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Wagerline has Cavs opening at +1.0 (I've since made the correction to my well in advance typed in Home Fav for their spot - obviously Hughes injury inbetween times made the diff.).

 

[richayu]

Tailed you on the NO-MEM overs. Cheers

 

[abcs]

Looks like a good night so far bud. Nice call on the Cavs.. that was a good game.

 

[xpression syst_m]

no sweat in boston

seriously though, how sick would it have been for those who bet it at a worse # that 185' if after the review the refs had allowed free throws at the end of the game (there was a delay to review it, lol)

 

[SF_capper]

nice number on Miami/Boston

got a push boo

 

[JPicks]

Tailed you on the NO-MEM overs. Cheers

Congrats on the win richayu. :cheers:

Looks like a good night so far bud. Nice call on the Cavs.. that was a good game.

Ya it was a great game. Roomate, huge Jazz fan, and I weren't really speaking much there at the end.

no sweat in boston

seriously though, how sick would it have been for those who bet it at a worse # that 185' if after the review the refs had allowed free throws at the end of the game (there was a delay to review it, lol)

I didn't see the end, but I was kind of curious what the hell happened as the Heat had the ball down 1 with 25 sec left and nobody scored again. That could have easily gone the other way on us. Getting good #'s is so underrated.

nice number on Miami/Boston

got a push boo

Ya you're local is screwing you. No way you can get in those bets any sooner?

 

[xpression syst_m]

d-wade was guarded by posey, ran the clock down and shot it and it bricked back iron, posey grabbed the board around the FT line with about 3 seconds left, dribbled it to the corner and covered up, 3 miami players hacked him, but it was after the red light

refs originally called for free throws (after the celebration had already begun on the court), all the miami players had looks like fuck this, let's just get off the court...anyways, they went to the sidelines to review and it was clear he wasn't touched till half a second after the red light, so it ends on 183

 

[SF_capper]

well I'm broke as hell. Had bookmaker and sportsbook.com accounts last yr, but cashed out and spent it at hawaii over the summer, then NFL drained the rest of my cash, so now just playin with credit thru local. only accepts bets 15 minutes before gametime, and has 20% juice on halftime/1st H bets. hoping to get on a nice run and collect some cash and get an online book, but for now, gotta play with trash numbers

 

[JPicks]

wow that's an awesome break for those with anything below 185'.

now let's go warriors.

 

[Slug]

Nice night brosef. Keep it up.