Fresno / RU
- Thread starter E.T.G.
- Start date
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
I know Shianio is a great defensive mind but imo, I think Fresno still moves the ball on them. Not sold on RU ability to run the ball w/ Young & Mason, they can throw it, yea, but you can't be 1 dimensional. FSU got balance and they won't be intimidated of 55k in RU
S
signalcaller
Guest
Loving Fresno. Really like their team this year. I think they do some great things. Thinking they could possibly win this and win vs Wisconsin. Also Rutgers really doesnt impress me. I am not a huge fan of Teel at all and with Rice now gone where are they going to get their offense from?
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
i was leaning fresno ml as well and here's what kind of scared me off (i'd still play fresno + with a gun to my head, but i think this line is pretty accurate)...i'm def not sold on the rutgers running game, especially with the OL they lost, but it helps to face a bottom tier rush defense (85, and yes, i know they played some teams that love to run the football, but still bad) that was hidden in the successes of fresno last year; and it will likely get worse with the loss of a lot of the front seven and replacing them with some questionable talent imo. i think rutgers' passing game will only get better no matter what you think of teel, whom i think is a little padded and overrated as well with the lean on the playaction to rice...but they have two returning 1000 yard receivers. only other teams to have two wideouts totaling more than 1000 yards---hawaii and texas tech. wow. so they have the playmakers to keep the passing game up to snuff, even against a stout returning fresno secondary that probably will not be aided with the same amount of pressure as last year. also, keep in mind how good rutgers defense is (5th against the pass last year) that will return 8 starters and probably be even better. now add in that fresno has a new OC (whom i like btw), and has to adjust to that offense in game 1 on the road. all this being said i do still believe that fresno will be able to run the ball on rutgers, just don't think they'll be tossing the rock all over the place. also, the turnover margin for fresno was awful last year, a lot of that due to the inability to create turnovers on defense, and the fact that they have new OC may lead to some confusion and mistakes on offense. tough to shift momentum on the road without turnovers. think that a 31-24 rutgers win is a very likely possibility here . not a terrible wager getting 2:1 by any means, but that's a summary of what scared me off...
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
liking fresno here. wish i had played this when mags did. if it hits 4.5 i am going to have to bite the bullet and pull the trigger but still praying for a 6 somewhere. Don't want to risk it falling to 4 though , so at 4.5 most places i am betting. Rates to be a close game..... and have to like the chances of either team that is behind getting a late score.
looking over rutgers schedule from last year , they really only beat one decent team when they defeated usf at home ... and they needed a couple of fake kicks and ponderous big east officiating ( a season long theme ..see uconn/temple , uconn/ville etc ) to pull that one off. And I think last years team was better than this one. When they faced decent running games last year they got killed.
41-24 win over navy , midshipmen 254 yds rushing
24-34 loss to maryland , terps 239 rushing
23-28 loss to bearcats , cincy 150 rushing
3-31 loss to west by god virginia , mountaineers 254 rushing
19-39 loss to uconn , huskies 256 rushing
20-16 win over pitt, panthers 74 yards ( an exception )
38-41 loss to the ville , 240 rushing ayrds for the cardinals
They just had a really tough time with good rush teams. That was when they had Rice and a ground game that ate up clock and kept the defense fresh. Now they are going to rely more on the pass and that makes defending the run with fresh bodies all the harder imo. And that's the rub with this Fresno st team .. they like to ram it down your throat. Basically returning entire offensive line this year and have tow capable backs to deliver with. A veteran quality college qb to beat them with the play action pass game and make good decisions. Look at wht fresno did from mid october on rushing the ball .
170 vs latech .... avg all. 137
307 at nevada .... avg all. 174
238 at idaho .......avg all. 161
251 vs sjsu .........avg all. 165
89 vs boisest .......avg all. 131
255 vs utahst mighty aggies ...avg all. 196
182 at hawaii ........avg all. 134
236 kansas st .......avg all. 142
263 at nmsu .........avg all. 168
286 georgia tech ....avg all. 115
So they consistently outperformed vs the opposing rush defense and as i already said it is rush defense that was the achilles heal of rutgers all of last year. Schiano is a good coach but i just think that if he loads up to stop the run that brandstater is good enough now and the receivers are good enough now to take advantage.
Now Rutgers poses some problems for the fresno defense too but i think most of those problems are through the air. Teel is going to be an improved player but i have watched a lot of rutgers football games and if given enough opportunities , he makes mistakes. He improved to a 20-13 td/int ratio last year but consider the great opportunities he got when the opponents were just loading up the box to stop R Rice. While I think Rutgers will have some success running hte ball here too , you have to think they rely on the stable of WR to get a lot of the work done. They have a definitive edge there ... but when one team rates to be tough to stop rushing and the other tough to stop passing ... guess where more of the big negative plays happen ? yup. So I think that Fresno gets the tough yards and is more likely to wear down the rutgers defense than the other way around. Fresno gets up for these games and I think Rutgers is a little over rated this year , much like they definitely were last year.
Rutgers can win and cover but i like my chances at a cover with fresno st..... i can see rutgers up 10 or 11 and fresno st going backdoor as well but i find it hard to envision a situation where rutgers blows the doors off of fresno st. No R Rice and relying more on Teel ... I say prove it.
looking over rutgers schedule from last year , they really only beat one decent team when they defeated usf at home ... and they needed a couple of fake kicks and ponderous big east officiating ( a season long theme ..see uconn/temple , uconn/ville etc ) to pull that one off. And I think last years team was better than this one. When they faced decent running games last year they got killed.
41-24 win over navy , midshipmen 254 yds rushing
24-34 loss to maryland , terps 239 rushing
23-28 loss to bearcats , cincy 150 rushing
3-31 loss to west by god virginia , mountaineers 254 rushing
19-39 loss to uconn , huskies 256 rushing
20-16 win over pitt, panthers 74 yards ( an exception )
38-41 loss to the ville , 240 rushing ayrds for the cardinals
They just had a really tough time with good rush teams. That was when they had Rice and a ground game that ate up clock and kept the defense fresh. Now they are going to rely more on the pass and that makes defending the run with fresh bodies all the harder imo. And that's the rub with this Fresno st team .. they like to ram it down your throat. Basically returning entire offensive line this year and have tow capable backs to deliver with. A veteran quality college qb to beat them with the play action pass game and make good decisions. Look at wht fresno did from mid october on rushing the ball .
170 vs latech .... avg all. 137
307 at nevada .... avg all. 174
238 at idaho .......avg all. 161
251 vs sjsu .........avg all. 165
89 vs boisest .......avg all. 131
255 vs utahst mighty aggies ...avg all. 196
182 at hawaii ........avg all. 134
236 kansas st .......avg all. 142
263 at nmsu .........avg all. 168
286 georgia tech ....avg all. 115
So they consistently outperformed vs the opposing rush defense and as i already said it is rush defense that was the achilles heal of rutgers all of last year. Schiano is a good coach but i just think that if he loads up to stop the run that brandstater is good enough now and the receivers are good enough now to take advantage.
Now Rutgers poses some problems for the fresno defense too but i think most of those problems are through the air. Teel is going to be an improved player but i have watched a lot of rutgers football games and if given enough opportunities , he makes mistakes. He improved to a 20-13 td/int ratio last year but consider the great opportunities he got when the opponents were just loading up the box to stop R Rice. While I think Rutgers will have some success running hte ball here too , you have to think they rely on the stable of WR to get a lot of the work done. They have a definitive edge there ... but when one team rates to be tough to stop rushing and the other tough to stop passing ... guess where more of the big negative plays happen ? yup. So I think that Fresno gets the tough yards and is more likely to wear down the rutgers defense than the other way around. Fresno gets up for these games and I think Rutgers is a little over rated this year , much like they definitely were last year.
Rutgers can win and cover but i like my chances at a cover with fresno st..... i can see rutgers up 10 or 11 and fresno st going backdoor as well but i find it hard to envision a situation where rutgers blows the doors off of fresno st. No R Rice and relying more on Teel ... I say prove it.
The key I look for will be Fresno's pass rush. Last year this would have been an almost impossible matchup for the Bulldogs. This year they might have a chance to crack the rebuilt Rutgers line, but there's really no way of telling until they play the game. I don't really know if any of Fresno's DE's are particularly skilled pass rushers. They better find a way because I think running with Britt and Underwood is going to be a tall task for the secondary.
On offense, you have to like the way Fresno matches up, but they are notoriously inconsistent, especially on the road. At some point though, I think they'll get in a groove and put a few scores up. Let's not forget also that Fresno's return game was outstanding last year, and AJ Jefferson could certainly impact the game.
So scenario one you've got Fresno surprising us and finding a way to get to Teel, in which case they're likely to win outright. Scenario two, they aren't, but with the Bulldogs' tenacity you have a chance of a cover anyway a la Fresno @ TAMU last year. That is, Fresno's offense answering the bell to pick up the defense, and a full blown shootout ensues.
In balance, I like Fresno with the points. Unlikely they'll play a total clunker, so the chances of a one score outcome are pretty good. +5.5 sounds good to me......
opcorn:
On offense, you have to like the way Fresno matches up, but they are notoriously inconsistent, especially on the road. At some point though, I think they'll get in a groove and put a few scores up. Let's not forget also that Fresno's return game was outstanding last year, and AJ Jefferson could certainly impact the game.
So scenario one you've got Fresno surprising us and finding a way to get to Teel, in which case they're likely to win outright. Scenario two, they aren't, but with the Bulldogs' tenacity you have a chance of a cover anyway a la Fresno @ TAMU last year. That is, Fresno's offense answering the bell to pick up the defense, and a full blown shootout ensues.
In balance, I like Fresno with the points. Unlikely they'll play a total clunker, so the chances of a one score outcome are pretty good. +5.5 sounds good to me......
opcorn:Fucking-A right.:shake:
Until you replace a 2,000+ yd/yr producer, I'll be betting against teams like Rutgers and on teams like Fresno looking to make a statement in the right situations. :cheers:
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Mugg
Dawg Fan
I lean towards Fresno as well, but I ? their depth. We all know how they get up for big games but can they play 60 mins. on the east coast vs a team with better talent? Rutgers certainly isn't as deep as some upper echelon teams but I have to believe that, player for player, they have to have an edge.
Tricky game..............not sure I'll play it, but I'll certainly watch it if I can.
Tricky game..............not sure I'll play it, but I'll certainly watch it if I can.
