Freak Pics *** Bowl Edition ***

Hitting all of my big bets so far, but can't seem to put together a winnig streak. +7.65 Units is not really a bad start though. I like all three games next week quite a bit, so hopefully I'll see a big jump in the units.
 
SMU vs. Fresno State

One of my favorite bowl games in the 2009/2010 bowl season was the Hawaii Bowl. Ironically that was the last time SMU entered a bowl game as a 12-point underdog. Pags an I were all over SMU plus the 12 and the ML that year. SMU proceeded to annahilate the Wolfpack 45-10 in a game that was never in doubt.

This season June Jones' Mustangs are again a 12-point underdog to a high octane western offense in a bowl game he has historically owned. All the stats seem to support the double digit line and that this game may be one of the biggest mismatches of the bowl season. I think that part of the huge disparity in stats is at least partially attributable to the SMU's strength of schedule. Not many teams that play Baylor, Texas A&M, TCU, Central Florida & Tulsa will emerge with impressive stats. SMU posted a 1 & 4 record against those 5 teams. Nevada's toughest games were Oregon, Tulsa, SDSU & Boise against whom they posted a 1 & 3 record.

Sans the Texas A&M game, SMU played very well at home all season, but were atrocious on the road losing convincingly to Rice, and straight up to Tulane as an almost 3 touchdown favorite. Much of SMU's trouble this season has centered around the erratic play of QB Garrett Gilbert, but Gilbert did seem to turn a corner of sorts about half way through the season.

Much has been made of Fresno's 5-game stretch run over which they averaged over 47 points a game. No doubt that's impressive, and no doubt Fresno has some legit NFL talent on that side of the ball, but they accomplished that against some of the worst teams in the FBS. And while I think Fresno has a decisive edge at the skill positions, I think SMU has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

I don't think SMU's offense can hang with Fresno in a track meet. If Fresno can score in the 40s, I think they have a great chance to win and cover because I don't think SMU's offense will eclipse 30 points. Fresno, however, has feasted on turnovers all season. I think that if Gilbert can protect the ball like he has done the second half of the season, and SMU wins the battle in the trenches like I think they will, this game might be a lot closer than many people think. Ultimately I think Fresno will escape the islands with a narrow 31-27 type of a victory.

SMU +12 (Regular Bet)
 
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Jimmy I Wanted to Wish You And Yours a Merry Christmas. Thank you for taking the time to post your write ups and picks.
 
My big decision is what to do with tonight's game in my confidence pools. Everyone will have Fresno pegged at the top of their boards tonight. Not sure if I should go with the flow here, or make a bold contrarian play.
 
I too, want to Wish a very Merry Christmas to Jimmy and family, as well, to all of those on this board! May we all be successful through the Holiday Bowl
season, but more importantly, through life in the up-coming New Year.

mrukyj
 
mrukyj said:
I too, want to Wish a very Merry Christmas to Jimmy and family, as well, to all of those on this board! May we all be successful through the Holiday Bowl
season, but more importantly, through life in the up-coming New Year.

mrukyj
Click to expand...

Thank you very much mrukyj!!! Same to you and yours.
 
Adding:

Now that the total has hit 63, I'm going to go ahead and jump on the 1st half UNDER.

SMU vs. Fresno State UNDER 31.5 (1st Half) (Small Bet)
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(+1.0 Units)

2-team parlay:

SMU +7 (1st Half)/UNDER 31.5 (1st Half) Risking 1 Unit to win 2.85 Units
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Jimmydafreak said:
Adding:

Now that the total has hit 63, I'm going to go ahead and jump on the 1st half UNDER.

SMU vs. Fresno State UNDER 31.5 (1st Half) (Small Bet)
moneybag.gif
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(+1.0 Units)

2-team parlay:

SMU +7 (1st Half)/UNDER 31.5 (1st Half) (Risking 1 Unit to win 2.85 Units)
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Click to expand...

Well, well, even a blind squirrel can find the eggnog once in a while!!!
 
Jimmydafreak said:
SMU vs. Fresno State

One of my favorite bowl games in the 2009/2010 bowl season was the Hawaii Bowl. Ironically that was the last time SMU entered a bowl game as a 12-point underdog. Pags an I were all over SMU plus the 12 and the ML that year. SMU proceeded to annahilate the Wolfpack 45-10 in a game that was never in doubt.

This season June Jones' Mustangs are again a 12-point underdog to a high octane western offense in a bowl game he has historically owned. All the stats seem to support the double digit line and that this game may be one of the biggest mismatches of the bowl season. I think that part of the huge disparity in stats is at least partially attributable to the SMU's strength of schedule. Not many teams that play Baylor, Texas A&M, TCU, Central Florida & Tulsa will emerge with impressive stats. SMU posted a 1 & 4 record against those 5 teams. Nevada's toughest games were Oregon, Tulsa, SDSU & Boise against whom they posted a 1 & 3 record.

Sans the Texas A&M game, SMU played very well at home all season, but were atrocious on the road losing convincingly to Rice, and straight up to Tulane as an almost 3 touchdown favorite. Much of SMU's trouble this season has centered around the erratic play of QB Garrett Gilbert, but Gilbert did seem to turn a corner of sorts about half way through the season.

Much has been made of Fresno's 5-game stretch run over which they averaged over 47 points a game. No doubt that's impressive, and no doubt Fresno has some legit NFL talent on that side of the ball, but they accomplished that against some of the worst teams in the FBS. And while I think Fresno has a decisive edge at the skill positions, I think SMU has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

I don't think SMU's offense can hang with Fresno in a track meet. If Fresno can score in the 40s, I think they have a great chance to win and cover because I don't think SMU's offense will eclipse 30 points. Fresno, however, has feasted on turnovers all season. I think that if Gilbert can protect the ball like he has done the second half of the season, and SMU wins the battle in the trenches like I think they will, this game might be a lot closer than many people think. Ultimately I think Fresno will escape the islands with a narrow 31-27 type of a victory.

SMU +12 (Regular Bet)
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(+3.0 Units)
Click to expand...

I think we can go ahead and count this one.
 
Great capping. I see you like the under,first half, for a lot of games. I believe the public leans toward betting the over so there is frequently a bit of value in that kind of bet. Fresno State vs S.M.U. was an example as the under rose from 29.5 to 31.5. Anyway your threads are great. Have a good holiday.
 
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky

Now we come to one of my favorite bowl games of the season (in terms of betting). Central Michigan wins my award for the worst bowl team of the 2012/2013 season. For the Hilltoppers this is their first bowl appearance in the history of the program, so lack of motivation won't be a factor here. I would have considered going larger on the Hilltoppers had they not lost their head coach Willie Taggart to USF at the end of the regular season. Because of WKU's smash-mouth, physical style of play, I really don't think that it'll matter much in the end however.


I really don't have any great words of wisdom for this game except that I think Western Kentucky will have a significant advantage on both sides of the ball, particularly in the trenches, and we saw how important the trenches are last night in the SMU/Fresno game - a game in which I also predicted SMU would be stronger in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I would not be at all surprised if WKU RB Antonio Andrews rushes for over 200 yards against the horrendous Chippewas run defense. I think WKU dominates this game from start to finish, and I look for a final score of something like 34-13.

Western Kentucky -5.5 *** Best Bet ***

CMU vs. WKU UNDER 28.5 (1st Half) (Regular Bet)

2-Team Parlay:

WKU -5.5/UNDER 28.5 (1st Half) Risking 1 Unit to win 2.6 Units

 
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Jasper11 said:
Great capping. I see you like the under,first half, for a lot of games. I believe the public leans toward betting the over so there is frequently a bit of value in that kind of bet. Fresno State vs S.M.U. was an example as the under rose from 29.5 to 31.5. Anyway your threads are great. Have a good holiday.
Click to expand...

If you follow me much at all you will know that when I bet UNDERS, I almost always bet them for the 1st half only - particularly in college football with the overtime rules such as they are. And with respect to totals, I am also primarily an UNDER bettor. I never seem to have much success betting OVERS for some reason. I hit 1st half UNDERS particularly hard early in the season when I believe offenses are not yet fully in sync. First half UNDERS were tremendously successful for me this season, and that has continued into the bowl season.
 
Birddog said:
Good luck the juice has gone up on 1h under. And already on W Kent but glad you have as a BB.
Click to expand...

I see that. Both lines moved shortly after I locked them in last night. I think the Hilltoppers are now -6.5 at some shops. The closer this thing gets to kickoff, the more I like that 1st half UNDER.
 
165yds said:
GL Jimmy, staying away but think you are on the correct side.
Click to expand...

Although the play may seem a little squareish, this is a game I identified when the bowls matchups were released. I liked WKU from the minute I saw it. Losing Taggart hurts, but I still think they pull through.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky

Now we come to one of my favorite bowl games of the season (in terms of betting). Central Michigan wins my award for the worst bowl team of the 2012/2013 season. For the Hilltoppers this is their first bowl appearance in the history of the program, so lack of motivation won't be a factor here. I would have considered going larger on the Hilltoppers had they not lost their head coach Willie Taggart to USF at the end of the regular season. Because of WKU's smash-mouth, physical style of play, I really don't think that it'll matter much in the end however.


I really don't have any great words of wisdom for this game except that I think Western Kentucky will have a significant advantage on both sides of the ball, particularly in the trenches, and we saw how important the trenches are last night in the SMU/Fresno game - a game in which I also predicted SMU would be stronger in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I would not be at all surprised if WKU RB Antonio Andrews rushes for over 200 yards against the horrendous Chippewas run defense. I think WKU dominates this game from start to finish, and I look for a final score of something like 34-13.

Western Kentucky -5.5 *** Best Bet ***

CMU vs. WKU UNDER 28.5 (1st Half) (Regular Bet)

2-Team Parlay:

WKU -5.5/UNDER 28.5 (1st Half) Risking 1 Unit to win 2.6 Units
Click to expand...

Just a terrible call, and some very bad luck on the total.
 
Tough start to the game .. third and long 69 yarder, flea flicker to set up the next score and then it is tough from there .. bet the last three qtrs mostly played out how you thought but cmich had already done the damage.
 
VK said:
Tough start to the game .. third and long 69 yarder, flea flicker to set up the next score and then it is tough from there .. bet the last three qtrs mostly played out how you thought but cmich had already done the damage.
Click to expand...

I really liked Western Kentucky's defense a lot coming into the game. I felt their front 7 would control the LOS. They were pretty effective stopping the run, but were unable to get any pressure on Radcliff at all, and that I thought was the difference in the game. The inability of WKU's defense to make key plays to get off of the field also adversely effected WKU's offensive game plan. They wanted to wear down CMU's front by pounding Andrews. I think that would have worked had WKU's defense not allowed CMU's defense to get so much rest between possessions.

And yes, after the first quarter flurry the game played out pretty much like I had envisioned. Playing the 1st half UNDER came back to bite me this time. Of course people who bet the game UNDER are pretty fortunate that WKU didn't kick a field goal to take the game to overtime.

This game hurt because this is one I was very confident in. I think my biggest miscalculation was CMU's offensive line. Their ability to pass protect was the difference in the game.
 
Adding:

Bowling Green vs. San Jose State UNDER 22.5 (1st Half) -105 *** Best Bet ***

Cincinnati -9.5 vs. Duke (Regular Bet)

*** I actually bet this game last week @ -7

Baylor +3 vs. UCLA (Small Bet)

*** I tried posting this for 30 minutes, but kept having issues with the site. I typed it 4 times. By the time it got posted the game was just about to kick off.
 
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Ok, that's more like it!!!

Bowling Green vs. SJSU UNDER 22.5 (1st Half) -105 *** Best Bet ***
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(+5.0 Units)
 
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Cincinnati -9.5 vs. Duke (Regular Bet)
moneybag.gif
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(+3.0 Units)

My condolences to Duke backers. Duke was clearly the right side.

 
Jimmydafreak said:
Cincinnati -9.5 vs. Duke (Regular Bet)
moneybag.gif
moneybag.gif
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(+3.0 Units)

My condolences to Duke backers. Duke was clearly the right side.
Click to expand...
I agree with you Jimmy, Duke played far better than I thought they could, and Cincy looked a little flat. I still have to admit it feels good to be on the right side of a lucky ( pardon the pun ) freak play for the cover, usually they work just the opposite for me. All that aside, GREAT capping Jimmy!
 
mrukyj said:
I agree with you Jimmy, Duke played far better than I thought they could, and Cincy looked a little flat. I still have to admit it feels good to be on the right side of a lucky ( pardon the pun ) freak play for the cover, usually they work just the opposite for me. All that aside, GREAT capping Jimmy!
Click to expand...

I agree. It does't seem like I've been on the right side of many mooses this season.
 
Adding:

I really love Louisiana-Monroe to win this game, but I hate the line. I'm going to make a small play on the Ragin Cagin after buying the line down to 6.5.

Ohio vs. Louisiana-Monroe -6.5 -115 (Small Play)

Rutgers ML +110 vs. Virginia Tech *** Best Bet ***

Minnesota vs. Texas Tech -13.5 (Regular Bet)

 
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Jimmydafreak said:
Adding:

I really love Louisiana Layfayette to win this game, but I hate the line. I'm going to make a small play on the Ragin Cagin after buying the line down to 6.5.

Ohio vs. Louisiana Layfayette -6.5 -115 (Small Play)

Rutgers ML +110 vs. Virginia Tech *** Best Bet ***

Minnesota vs. Texas Tech -13.5 (Regular Bet)
Click to expand...


Just an FYI, but Ohio is playing La Monroe, not Lafayette.
 
gps_3 said:
Just an FYI, but Ohio is playing La Monroe, not Lafayette.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and I even butchered the spelling of "Lafayette" to top it off. In my defense I did posted that at 4:30 in the morning!!! Thanks for the heads up though, and the best of luck with your plays today gps.
 
Birddog said:
Like that Rutgers is a Best Bet and glad you are on "Gun's Up" Texas Tech.
Click to expand...

I think Rutgers is the better team. If I were making this line, I would flip it around and make Rutgers -3. This is strictly a reputation line in my opinion. Furthermore, it's just another oportunity to fade the ACC.

As far as Tech is concerned, I actually think this team is fired up that Wing Nut is gone. I also don't think that Minnesota's offense can come close to keeping pace with Seth Doege. Lastly, this is just another opportunity to fade the Big 10.
bigsmile.gif
 
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