Freak Pics *** Bowl Edition ***

[Jimmydafreak]

Last year was the first time ever I was able to turn a profit every single week of the college football season, and followed that with an extremely successful bowl season. Despite having a very profitable college football season, I wasn't quite able to duplicate that success this year. I found myself in the red three times this season. Hopefully I can follow up my successful season with another very profitable bowl season.

2012 Season Recap:

Regular Bets: 64-41-3
Best Bets:32-15-1
Max Bets:1-2
UDMLs: 3-7

Future Bets Recap:

Florida to win the SEC East +350

Oregon to win the PAC 12 championship +106

Alabama to win the national championship +350 (Pending)

This will be a continuous thread throughout the bowl season. With one exception I will make my picks for each game within a few days or hours of the schedule kickoff. I will employ a 4-tier betting structure as follows:

Small Bet = 1 Unit
Regular Bet = 3 Units
Best Bet = 5 Units
Max Bet = 20 Units

I will attempt to keep track of my units during the bowl season, something I never do in my regular season threads.

I have "Max Bet" every single national championship game since 2006 except last season's game. Last season I straight bet Alabama, and did a 5-unit parlay on Alabama and the 1st half under. So although I didn't "Max Bet" the game, I actually won 23 units versus 20.

This season I will be back on the "Max Bet" train with Alabama at any number under 14. I will delve into this game further later in this thread, but despite most of the country hoping for a differenct outcome, Notre Dame is pretty much an ideal matchup for Alabama. What this game really amounts to is a glorified version of Alabama/Michigan. I think you can also compare Notre Dame to a poor man's LSU. Either way, this really should not be a competitive game.

All of my bowl plays will appear in post #3.

Best of luck to all!!!

 

[RetroVK]

best of luck. nice bama ticket

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Cumulative Bowl Unit Count:+48.85 Units

Small Bets: 4-6
Regular Bets: 7-8
Best Bets: 12-5-1
Max Bets: 1-0
UDML: 1-5
Parlays: 2-2
Teasers: 0-1
Nevada vs. Arizona -9 (Small Bet)

(-1.1 Unit)

Toledo vs. Utah State -10 (Small Bet)

(+1.0 Units)

Toledo vs. USU U 29.5 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

BYU vs. SDSU ML +145 (Regular Bet)

(-3 Units)

BYU vs. SDSU U 24 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

Ball State vs. Central Florida OVER 62 (Small Bet)

(-1.1 Unit)

ECU vs.ULL -6.5 *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

WU vs. BSU U 21.5 (1st Half) -105 (Regular Bet)

(-3.15 Units)

SMU +12 vs. Fresno State (Regular Bet)

(+3.0 Units)

SMU vs. Fresno State UNDER 31.5 (1st Half) (Small Bet)

(+1.0 Units)

2-Team Parlay:

SMU +7 (1st Half)/UNDER 31.5 (1st Half) (Risking 1 to win 2.85)

CMU vs. Western Kentucky - 5.5 *** Best Bet ***

(-5.5 Units)

CMU vs. WKU UNDER 28.5 (1st Half) (Regular Bet)

(-3.3 Units)

2-Team Parlay:

WKU -5.5/U 28.5 (1st Half) 1 Unit to win 2.6 Units

(-1 Unit)

BGU vs. SJSU U 22.5 (1st Half) -105 *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

Cincinnati -9.5 vs. Duke (Regular Bet)

(+3.0 Units)

Baylor +3 vs. UCLA (Small Bet)

(+1.0 Units)

Ohio vs. Louisiana-Monroe -6.5 -115 (Small Play)

(-1.15 Units)

Rutgers ML +110 vs. Virginia Tech *** Best Bet ***

(-5 Units)

Minnesota vs. Texas Tech -13.5 (Regular Bet)

(-3.3 Units)

Air Force vs. Rice ML +110 (Regular Bet)

(+3.3 Units)

Navy vs. Arizona State OVER 52.5 *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

2-Team Parlay

Navy/ASU O 54.5 & WVU/SU O 70 (Risking 1 to win 2.6)

(-1 Unit)

OSU vs. Texas U 28 (1st Half) -105 (Regular Bet)

(-3.15 Units)

TCU vs. MSU U 20 (1st Half) -105 (Regular Bet)

(+3.0 Units)

TCU vs. Michigan State ML +105 (Small Bet)

(+1.0 Units)

NC State vs. Vanderbilt -7 *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

USC vs. GT UNDER 31.5 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

USC vs. Georgia Tech +7 -105 (Regular Bet)

(+3.0 Units)

USC vs. Georgia Tech ML +235 (Regular Bet)

(+7.05 Units)

Iowa State ML +120 vs. Tulsa (Regular Bet)

(-3.0 Units)

Iowa State vs. Tulsa OVER 51 (Small Bet)

(-1.0 Unit)

Clemson vs. LSU U 29.5 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

Clemson vs. LSU -4.5 (Regular Bet)

(-3.3 Units)

2-Team Parlay:

USC/GT U 31 (1st Half) & CU/LSU U 29.5 (1st Half) (1 to win 2.6)

Northwestern vs. Mississippi St. OVER 54 *** Best Bet *** PUSH

Northwestern vs. MSU ML +110 (Regular Bet)

(-3.0 Units)

Nebraska vs. Georgia -8 (Regular Bet)

(+3.0 Units)

Purdue +10 (1st Half) Even vs. OSU (Small Bet)

(-1.0 Unit)

Michigan vs. USC U 23.5 (1st Half) -115 (Small Bet)

(-1.15 Unit)

NIU vs. FSU UNDER 29.5 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

NIU vs. FSU -7 (2nd Half) *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

4-Team, 6-point teaser (Risking 3 Units to win 9):

(-3.0 Units)

Wisconsin +11, Northern Illinois +20, Wisconsin/Stanford UNDER 52.5, Northern Illinois/Florida State UNDER 64.5

2-Team, 6-Point Teaser:

(-3 Units)

Louisville +20 vs. Florida & Louisville vs. Florida UNDER 52.5

Louisville Team Total UNDER 17 *** Best Bet ***

(-5.75 Units)

UL vs. Florida U 24 (1st Half) -115 *** Best Bet ***

(-5.5 Units)

Louisville vs. Florida UNDER 48 *** Best Bet ***

(-5.5 Units)

Kansas State +7.5 vs. Oregon (Regular Bet)

(-3.3 Units)

Kansas State ML +270 vs. Oregon (Small Bet)

(-1.0 Unit)

Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M -3 *** Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi -4.5 (Regular Bet)

(+3.0 Units)

Arkansas State vs. Kent State +3.5 (Regular Bet)

(-3.3 Units)

Arkansas State vs. Kent State ML +135 (Small Bet)

(-1.0 Units)

Alabama -10 -105 vs. Notre Dame *** Max Bet ***

(+20.0 Units)

Notre Dame Team Total UNDER 15 ***Best Bet ***

(+5.0 Units)

Alabama to win the national championship +350

(+7.0 Units)

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Nevada vs. Arizona

I might be the worst bettor on the wild, wild west schools in the history of gambling, but it doesn't dissuade me from continuing to bet on them. So here we go opening the bowl season with a game I have no business betting, but will do so because of course I'm obligated to bet ALL bowl games.

Nevada is one of those dangerous teams that is in a bowl game even though they really have no business being in one. That usually makes them the hungrier team. This is also another opportunity for Nevada to poke a sharp stick in the eye of a PAC 12 foe, so motivation won't be an issue for the Wolf Pack.

Nevada, however, has to have played one of the weakest schedules in college football this season. Arizona will certainly be one of the best teams Nevada has faced all season, and Nevada is probably one of the worst teams Arizona State has faced all season. With Arizona's #2 rusher in the country eager to tear through one of the worst rush defenses in the country, ordinarily this would be an easy bet for me. That is until I consider that Rich Rod is on Arizona's sideline for whose team playing defense is optional. Rich Rod is to defense what the 70s are to the fashion industry.

After taking quite some time to analyze this matchup, the best bet might be OVER 77, but I'm primarily an under bettor who is very adverse to betting over a number that steep. I'll take my chances with what should be the far better team, and hope I don't get back-doored.

Arizona -9 (Small Bet)

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Toledo vs. Utah State

The Aggies have been a covering machine all season, and is a team I quite frankly missed the boat on this season. Despite not cashing in on this team like I should have this season, I do have a man-crush on Aggies coach Gary Anderson. I'm surprised some bigger schools haven't knocked on his door yet. I think he'll make an outstanding coach for an AQ conference team someday.

Although Utah State can definitely light up the scoreboard, what has impressed me most about this team has been their outstanding defense, and I think that's the difference in this game. Because of that I really like the value of getting over 4 TDs in the 1st half total. Laying double digits and betting the under is usually like pushing and pulling at the same time, but I like for this game to be low-scoring in the 1st half, with the Aggies pulling away in the 2nd.

Utah State -10 (Small Bet)

UNDER 29.5 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

 

[Jimmydafreak]

best of luck. nice bama ticket

Thanks VK!!!

Yeah, I had terrible luck on my Florida and Oregon bets. Florida and Oregon both go 11 & 1, but both lose the one game that would keep them from cashing my bets. Of course I like my chances on cashing the Alabama future. Had I funded my account a little sooner, I could have gotten significantly better odds however. I think it started somewhere in the 500s.

Best of luck this bowl season!!!

 

[RetroVK]

Two things...

1. Bigger schools did knock on Andersen's door. He turned them down.

2. 70's fashion was awesome.

 

[Birddog]

Good Luck Jimmy I will be on many of your plays. Great Capper.

during reg season you just had reg bet and best (some max) so say best is 100 how would you value reg vs small please?

 

[HUNT]

Gl this bowl season jimmy. Crush it.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Good Luck Jimmy I will be on many of your plays. Great Capper.

during reg season you just had reg bet and best (some max) so say best is 100 how would you value reg vs small please?

I do things completely different during the regular season. On Saturdays I usually only straight bet my "Best Bets" and use my other plays to parlay with my "Best Bet." So a typical Saturday bet for me will be 5 units on Team A, and a 1-unit, 3-team parlay with Team A, Team B & Team C. Sometimes I deviate slightly. Sometimes I make plays that i don't post. On weekday games I usually bet 1-3 units on a regular play. This is why I don't even begin to try to keep track of units. I would drive myself mad. I just keep track of my account balance. During the bowl season I straight bet all my plays. Every now and then I might throw in a parlay. If I do, I'll post it.

 

[Judge Smails]

Hope you have a great and fantastic Bowl Season, jimmy!
Heckuva regular season, too, and so so close on those futures (stupid Georgia, stupid Oregon kicker ... HaHa). Enjoy all 35 bowl games and putting some extra cash in your online accounts and your pockets, amigo!!

 

[GoIrish!]

Last year was the first time ever I was able to turn a profit every single week of the college football season, and followed that with an extremely successful bowl season. Despite having a very profitable college football season, I wasn't quite able to duplicate that success this year. I found myself in the red three times this season. Hopefully I can follow up my successful season with another very profitable bowl season.

2012 Season Recap:

Regular Bets: 64-41-3
Best Bets:32-15-1
Max Bets:1-2
UDMLs: 3-7

Future Bets Recap:

Florida to win the SEC East +350

Oregon to win the PAC 12 championship +106

Alabama to win the national championship +350 (Pending)

This will be a continuous thread throughout the bowl season. With one exception I will make my picks for each game within a few days or hours of the schedule kickoff. I will employ a 4-tier betting structure as follows:

Small Bet = 1 Unit
Regular Bet = 3 Units
Best Bet = 5 Units
Max Bet = 20 Units

I will attempt to keep track of my units during the bowl season, something I never do in my regular season threads.

I have "Max Bet" every single national championship game since 2006 except last season's game. Last season I straight bet Alabama, and did a 5-unit parlay on Alabama and the 1st half under. So although I didn't "Max Bet" the game, I actually won 23 units versus 20.

This season I will be back on the "Max Bet" train with Alabama at any number under 14. I will delve into this game further later in this thread, but despite most of the country hoping for a differenct outcome, Notre Dame is pretty much an ideal matchup for Alabama. What this game really amounts to is a glorified version of Alabama/Michigan. I think you can also compare Notre Dame to a poor man's LSU. Either way, this really should not be a competitive game.

All of my bowl plays will appear in post #3.

Best of luck to all!!!

Notre Dame has a better offence than both LSU and Michigan and a better D than Michigan and probably LSU...Debatable...however best of luck on all your picks in the bowl season...hope you win them all except that one haha:shake:

 

[Elbutre88]

GL freak.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Notre Dame has a better offence than both LSU and Michigan and a better D than Michigan and probably LSU...Debatable...however best of luck on all your picks in the bowl season...hope you win them all except that one haha:shake:

First of all let me congratulate you on your team making it to the national championship game. Regardless of the outcome of the game, Notre Dame certainly has had a tremendous season. I think what many people are overlooking is the windfall the Irish are getting in terms of recruiting. Notre Dame's recruiting has been luke warm at best the past 4 years. I think their on-the-field success this season has definitely helped to vault them into the recruiting elite - a place they haven't been accustomed to lately. Success on the recruiting trail should help keep Notre Dame in the BCS conversation in the years to come. So again, regardless of what happens in the national championship game, I think this season can be counted as a huge success for the Irish.

I would agree that Notre Dame has a better defense than Michigan, but the two teams are very similar in talent, scheme and philosophy.

I would disagree that Notre Dame's offense is better than LSU's. While Notre Dame's stats may be slightly better, LSU's offense has played against far better defenses than Notre Dame. I would argue that LSU's offense has faced 3 defenses that are better than anything Notre Dame has seen all season. An argument could be made for Michigan State, but I don't think Sparty's defense is on the level of Alabama, Florida or South Carolina Granted LSU has inept offensive coaching, but they have better athletes, are certainly more powerful at the point of attack, and except for the tight end position, have better offensive personnel pretty much across the board.

I'm still in the process of watching and re-watching all of Notre Dame's games this season. After doing so I will delve a little deeper into the matchup. That said I look forward to you educating me about Notre Dame football, and some friendly debate on the game.

 

[GoIrish!]

First of all let me congratulate you on your team making it to the national championship game. Regardless of the outcome of the game, Notre Dame certainly has had a tremendous season. I think what many people are overlooking is the windfall the Irish are getting in terms of recruiting. Notre Dame's recruiting has been luke warm at best the past 4 years. I think their on-the-field success this season has definitely helped to vault them into the recruiting elite - a place they haven't been accustomed to lately. Success on the recruiting trail should help keep Notre Dame in the BCS conversation in the years to come. So again, regardless of what happens in the national championship game, I think this season can be counted as a huge success for the Irish.

I would agree that Notre Dame has a better defense than Michigan, but the two teams are very similar in talent, scheme and philosophy.

I would disagree that Notre Dame's offense is better than LSU's. While Notre Dame's stats may be slightly better, LSU's offense has played against far better defenses than Notre Dame. I would argue that LSU's offense has faced 3 defenses that are better than anything Notre Dame has seen all season. Granted LSU has inept offensive coaching, but they have better athletes, are certainly more powerful at the point of attack, and except for the tight end position, have better offensive personnel pretty much across the board.

I'm still in the process of watching and re-watching all of Notre Dame's games this season. After doing so I will delve a little deeper into the matchup. That said I look forward to you educating me about Notre Dame football, and some friendly debate on the game.

hahaha its funny you say that Jimmy, I was talking to my buddy the other day because back in college we would play ncaa football and no one was allowed to be Notre Dame when we would play season after season because the moment you have one good season, you get all the elite recruits are you are talking about. Crazy how they actually have a great year (in real life) and the recruits are just flying to South Bend. Really makes me put a smile on my face and just to think we are back and can be competitive with the elite teams is just foreign territory for me. Born in 86 i grew up watchin ND football with my Grandpa and family but when I was old enough to know what the hell was going on, we were already on the downward spiral. I am definitely going to be diving into this game over the weekend and will get back with u about what i am seeing

I know that I had already placed my bet at +10.5 on Notre Dame and will take a stab at the ML once it comes out with out looking at any of the numbers. Call me a homer...call me a SEC hater... my bet was strictly from a gut stand point. From everything I have heard and read, this team is a very close close group, i don't know how it all came together so fast because I have personally talked to people from last years team after the year had finished up last year and they were not sold on Kelly and were not sold on the system. Te'o spoke out against BK last year so i was very nervous coming into the year however it has been quite the opposite, ALL of the players have bought into the system and call each other their brothers (cheesy a little bit i know) but the team has held true thought a lot of adversity. This team has that feel of a championship team that will bend but will not break. USC Stanford, Pitt, this team will not lose......From Goalline stands to a backup qb coming to win it or a freshman QB coming back to win one this team just wins. I think BK gets the coaching edge over saban and grinds this game out!

 

[bloodhound]

Alabama -10 vs. Notre Dame *** Max Bet ***

Nevada vs. Arizona -9 (Small Bet)

Toledo vs. Utah State -10 (Small Bet)

Toledo vs. Utah State UNDER 29.5 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

G
Good luck jimmy
Congrats on a nice season

 

[traderjoe13]

first post here BOL Jimmy!!! I took a prettyu sizeable bama -9 bet and have them sprinkled in a few more teasers as a pickem !! hope you have a profitable bowl season

 

[Jimmydafreak]

hahaha its funny you say that Jimmy, I was talking to my buddy the other day because back in college we would play ncaa football and no one was allowed to be Notre Dame when we would play season after season because the moment you have one good season, you get all the elite recruits are you are talking about. Crazy how they actually have a great year (in real life) and the recruits are just flying to South Bend. Really makes me put a smile on my face and just to think we are back and can be competitive with the elite teams is just foreign territory for me. Born in 86 i grew up watchin ND football with my Grandpa and family but when I was old enough to know what the hell was going on, we were already on the downward spiral. I am definitely going to be diving into this game over the weekend and will get back with u about what i am seeing

I know that I had already placed my bet at +10.5 on Notre Dame and will take a stab at the ML once it comes out with out looking at any of the numbers. Call me a homer...call me a SEC hater... my bet was strictly from a gut stand point. From everything I have heard and read, this team is a very close close group, i don't know how it all came together so fast because I have personally talked to people from last years team after the year had finished up last year and they were not sold on Kelly and were not sold on the system. Te'o spoke out against BK last year so i was very nervous coming into the year however it has been quite the opposite, ALL of the players have bought into the system and call each other their brothers (cheesy a little bit i know) but the team has held true thought a lot of adversity. This team has that feel of a championship team that will bend but will not break. USC Stanford, Pitt, this team will not lose......From Goalline stands to a backup qb coming to win it or a freshman QB coming back to win one this team just wins. I think BK gets the coaching edge over saban and grinds this game out!

I think team unity, team chemistry, making clutch plays in big games are traits you will find in all good teams. It is pretty much the DNA of a champion, and Notre Dame seems to have it this season. That's why they are where they are.

I think almost all experts and pundits believe this will be a close game so it would be difficult for anyone to criticize taking the points here. Furthermore, DD bowl favorites have only covered something like 4 out of the last 16 times. Think about that then go back to Post #3 and look at my bowl card. I'm on 3 DD favorites and no DD dogs. I would counter this historical data by pointing out that I believe this bowl card appears to have an inordinate amount of mismatches. In other words, I think we are going to see DD favorites make a bit of a comeback this bowl season.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

first post here BOL Jimmy!!! I took a prettyu sizeable bama -9 bet and have them sprinkled in a few more teasers as a pickem !! hope you have a profitable bowl season

Good to see you Joe. This is a great forum. I hope you stick around and post more often. This site experienced a catastophic hard drive failure recently, so the activity has been down the last few weeks, but it'll pick back up to normal soon.

Are you going to play in the Bowl Confidence Pool??? If so, you still have time. Go into the Bowl Confidence Pool thread and tell Smokedawg you want to play.

http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?84005-Bowl-confidence-pool

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Good luck Jimmy

 

[STEED]

Good luck buddy

 

[Marlo]

GL Jimmy

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Lost my small Arizona bet, but I warned in advance that I might the worst bettor on schools west of the Rockies in the history of wagering. In my opinion these schools are just too inconsistent to handicap. That said, my words that OVER 77 was probably the best play in this game proved prophetic. I'm just too much of a chickenshit to bet over such a lofty numbers. Hopefully everyone bet on my OVER opinion, and faded me on the Wildcats.

I rebounded nicely by easily hitting my "Best Bet," and capping it off with a Utah State cover. All in all, a great start to the bowl season.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Two things...

1. Bigger schools did knock on Andersen's door. He turned them down.

2. 70's fashion was awesome.

Had not heard of Anderson receiving any offers. I would be curious to hear who expressed interest.

Yeah, 70s fashion was about as awesome as Rich Rods's defense today!!!

 

[traderjoe13]

Great Day my man!! I did sign up for the bowl pool and didnt realize i could put you down as a referrer is there any way that i can get you credit for reffering me??

 

[RetroVK]

I believe it was California and Colorado but I would have to google it to be sure again.

Nice call on the first half under and utah state.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Great Day my man!! I did sign up for the bowl pool and didnt realize i could put you down as a referrer is there any way that i can get you credit for reffering me??

News to me. I had no clue either. I don't know what that does for me either.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I believe it was California and Colorado but I would have to google it to be sure again.

Nice call on the first half under and utah state.

Thanks!!!

Now that you mention it, Colorado does seem to ring a bell.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

BYU vs. SDSU

These teams are former Mountain West rivals who last met at Lavell Edwards Staduim in 2010. The Cougars won that game 24-21 in highly controversial fashion when an Aztecs fumble recovery was disallowed by the replay booth. SDSU recovered a fumble by Cougars RB JJ DiLuigi who was ruled down by contact. SDSU challenged the call on the field, and despite the replay leaving no doubt whatsoever that DiLuigi fumbled the ball, the play was upheld on review. It was later discovered that two of the people in the replay booth had ties to BYU. SDSU was not amused and vociferously protested to the Mountain West Conference. The conference suspended the replay crew, but BYU kept the victory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NWOxcDvI4o

Aside from this being huge revenge game for the Aztecs, the Poinsettia Bowl is played in San Diego. Thus, for all practical purposes this is a home game for the Aztecs. So rather than having to pack up and play an altitutde game in cold weather, SDSU enjoys the luxury of playing in a climate they are obviously very accustomed to.

I think these are two very evenly matched teams, but I love the home team here playing with huge revenge.

SDSU ML +145 (Regular Bet)

UNDER 24 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***

 

[Aztec4Life]

Glad to see you on the Aztecs, Jimmy. I'll never forget that replay and upheld call that essentially cost SDSU the game.

BOL this Bowl Season bro!

 

[RetroVK]

Wow at that review.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Glad to see you on the Aztecs, Jimmy. I'll never forget that replay and upheld call that essentially cost SDSU the game.

BOL this Bowl Season bro!

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on the game.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great thread, BOL the rest of the bowl season.

 

[Aztec4Life]

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on the game.

There's a number of reasons why I'm on SDSU +3 today...

1. As you've already stated, it's a big time revenge game for the Aztecs. I'm sure all the juniors and seniors vividly remember the bogus replay that was upheld vs BYU, which essentially cost SDSU the game.

2. As we all know, this is a home game for the Aztecs, with the Poinsettia Bowl being at Qualcomm. When SDSU played in the Poinsettia Bowl two years ago, the HFA was a factor right from the get-go. Combine that with the fact that BYU has played sub-par on the road this season, I like the Aztecs chances of winning outright.

3. Despite the fact that SDSU's QB Dingwell is just a sophomore, he's undefeated as a starter for the Aztecs. He's a solid passer, and has good wheels as well. He has been smart with the football this season, and his leadership and clutch play no doubt played a major role in helping the Aztecs end the regular season on a seven game winning streak, which also earned SDSU a share of the MWC title. Two of those seven straight victories included wins on the road at Boise and at Nevada. Basically, I think SDSU has the edge at the QB position. I think Long will try to force Nelson and Lark to beat SDSU with the pass, and neither QB scares me that much. If Hill was in, I would be singing a different tune..

4. Defensively, BYU definitely has the edge. Having said that, while SDSU does give up a decent amount of yards, they hold true to the "Bend but don't Break" philosophy. Rocky Long is the creator and master of the 3-3-5 Defense, and IMO, makes phenomenal halftime adjustments every single game. The 3-3-5 allows Long to bring blitzes from all sorts of different angles and positions on the field, and it's a difficult and potentially confusing defense to prepare for. Considering BYU has had their struggles at the QB position this year, there's a good chance Nelson and company could turn it over a few times.

5. SDSU has a phenomenal rushing attack, and a very physical, smash-mouth O-Line. The Aztecs have a hell of a one-two punch at the RB position with Kazee (thunder) and Muema (lightening). Muema averages 113 ypg at 6.3 ypc, while Kazee isn't too far behind, averaging 70 ypg at 5.1 ypc. Rotating both backs throughout the course of the game enables Long to have fresh legs at the RB position from start to finish. As a team, the Aztecs average 230 yards rushing per game, while only giving up 140 yards rushing per game on defense. Conversely, while BYU has an excellent rush defense, their rushing attack isn't nearly as prolific as SDSU's, as they average 160 yards rushing per game.

6. I think the most intriguing matchup in the game is McFadden vs Hoffman. While I believe Hoffman will get his, I think McFadden will do enough to prevent him from having a monster game. On the flip side, if SDSU can establish the run game early, it will open up the play-action for Dingwell to Escobar, who is a mismatch for any LB or DB that ends up trying to cover him.

7. To sum it all up, I think SDSU is simply a very good, balanced football team. Solid passing attack...phenomenal rushing attack...good special teams (Locket is a dangerous kick/punt returner)...solid kicking game...and an underrated defense. I'll gladly take my chances with the home team getting 3 points, with the revenge angle on their side, and a chance to earn their first ten win season since joining the MWC in 1998.

:shake:

 

[cogenman]

Good write-up Aztec.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

Good stuff Jimmy, Az - GL tonight.

 

[wadegarrett]

Who qb for byu?
I think they both stink but curious

 

[Aztec4Life]

Who qb for byu?
I think they both stink but curious

Nelson and Lark.

 

[Play2win]

im pretty sure Kazee tore his ACL and is out, some sites dont have him on injury report at all and some have him out for season.

 

[Play2win]

this is from SD ST site:

Although San Diego State entered the year looking to replace third-round NFL Draft selection Ronnie
Hillman, the Aztecs have proven they have quality depth at the position. Sophomore
Adam Muema
earned second-team all-conference honors, with 1,355 yards, 16 touchdowns and a 6.4 yards-perrush.
Also in the backfield is senior
Walter Kazee. A career 1,000-yard rusher, Kazee’s season was cut
short in 2011 when he suffered a knee injury at Colorado State. In 12 games this season, Kazee has
822 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns, and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Kazee suffered
a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the game at Wyoming and will not play in the Poinsettia
Bowl.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Holy shit...I knew Kazee got banged up in the WYO game, but honestly didn't know he was out for the Poinsettia Bowl.

No matter...Muema is the number one guy, and the Aztecs still have plenty of depth at RB to keep Muema fresh.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

There's a number of reasons why I'm on SDSU +3 today...

1. As you've already stated, it's a big time revenge game for the Aztecs. I'm sure all the juniors and seniors vividly remember the bogus replay that was upheld vs BYU, which essentially cost SDSU the game.

2. As we all know, this is a home game for the Aztecs, with the Poinsettia Bowl being at Qualcomm. When SDSU played in the Poinsettia Bowl two years ago, the HFA was a factor right from the get-go. Combine that with the fact that BYU has played sub-par on the road this season, I like the Aztecs chances of winning outright.

3. Despite the fact that SDSU's QB Dingwell is just a sophomore, he's undefeated as a starter for the Aztecs. He's a solid passer, and has good wheels as well. He has been smart with the football this season, and his leadership and clutch play no doubt played a major role in helping the Aztecs end the regular season on a seven game winning streak, which also earned SDSU a share of the MWC title. Two of those seven straight victories included wins on the road at Boise and at Nevada. Basically, I think SDSU has the edge at the QB position. I think Long will try to force Nelson and Lark to beat SDSU with the pass, and neither QB scares me that much. If Hill was in, I would be singing a different tune..

4. Defensively, BYU definitely has the edge. Having said that, while SDSU does give up a decent amount of yards, they hold true to the "Bend but don't Break" philosophy. Rocky Long is the creator and master of the 3-3-5 Defense, and IMO, makes phenomenal halftime adjustments every single game. The 3-3-5 allows Long to bring blitzes from all sorts of different angles and positions on the field, and it's a difficult and potentially confusing defense to prepare for. Considering BYU has had their struggles at the QB position this year, there's a good chance Nelson and company could turn it over a few times.

5. SDSU has a phenomenal rushing attack, and a very physical, smash-mouth O-Line. The Aztecs have a hell of a one-two punch at the RB position with Kazee (thunder) and Muema (lightening). Muema averages 113 ypg at 6.3 ypc, while Kazee isn't too far behind, averaging 70 ypg at 5.1 ypc. Rotating both backs throughout the course of the game enables Long to have fresh legs at the RB position from start to finish. As a team, the Aztecs average 230 yards rushing per game, while only giving up 140 yards rushing per game on defense. Conversely, while BYU has an excellent rush defense, their rushing attack isn't nearly as prolific as SDSU's, as they average 160 yards rushing per game.

6. I think the most intriguing matchup in the game is McFadden vs Hoffman. While I believe Hoffman will get his, I think McFadden will do enough to prevent him from having a monster game. On the flip side, if SDSU can establish the run game early, it will open up the play-action for Dingwell to Escobar, who is a mismatch for any LB or DB that ends up trying to cover him.

7. To sum it all up, I think SDSU is simply a very good, balanced football team. Solid passing attack...phenomenal rushing attack...good special teams (Locket is a dangerous kick/punt returner)...solid kicking game...and an underrated defense. I'll gladly take my chances with the home team getting 3 points, with the revenge angle on their side, and a chance to earn their first ten win season since joining the MWC in 1998.

:shake:

Great write-up Aztec!!! Thanks for taking the time.

Yeah, the injury report I saw has Kazee out for the season.

I think SDSU has a larger advantage at QB. This is a classic case of good offense versus good defense on one side of the ball, and bad defense versus bad offense on the other. I agree that the Aztecs find a way to win this game outright.

:shake:

 

[mrukyj]

Jimmy,
Thanks for the Great call on the BYU / SD St. 1st Half under!

 

[Aztec4Life]

Sorry my boys flopped for you tonigh Jimmy. GL the res of the way

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Sorry my boys flopped for you tonigh Jimmy. GL the res of the way

That atrocius call on the 1st touchdown is wht got the snowball rolling. The bigest factor in the 2nd half was their inability to flip field position. Kind of tough to score when you are starting inside your own 10 yard line every time.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Adding:

Ball State vs. Central Florida OVER 62 (Small Bet)

 

[Aztec4Life]

That atrocius call on the 1st touchdown is wht got the snowball rolling. The bigest factor in the 2nd half was their inability to flip field position. Kind of tough to score when you are starting inside your own 10 yard line every time.

Yeah, I hear ya bro

 

[Birddog]

Good luck today with whatever your plays are.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Adding:

East Carolina vs. Louisiana Lafayette -6.5 *** Best Bet ***

Washington vs. Boise State UNDER 21.5 (1st Half) -105 (Regular Bet)

Best of luck to all (who don't oppose me

)!!!

 

[Birddog]

:aok:Good Luck Today