First wager of 2013 NCAA year

[JML4481]

I'm typically a game day bettor. However, while running through some games, this one caught my eye

Nebraska-6.5 vs. UCLA

I have a team with revenge, Sr. qb, a team that I have on the rise for this season, playing at home at 11a.m.(verified on both school websites) vs. a team I am down on in UCLA.

Maybe this pick hits, maybe it doesn't, but I think I am getting some value under a touchdown, early start and revenge.

Gonna grab it now, and hope for the Huskers not to do anything stupid between now and then.

1 unit
Nebraska-6.5 vs. UCLA on 9/14

 

[Schrute]

it all makes sense

GL on this wager and this year

 

[STEED]

Good luck this season.

 

[Elbutre88]

gl. i think we could all make some money fading ucla this year.

 

[sportjunky]

just curious, why are you guys down on UCLA?

 

[Elbutre88]

their o-line was 118th the country in sacks allowed last year. They have 1 stud, the LT? i think. and they lost 3 starters from the secondary. and their secondary wasn't anything to brag about. the back end of their schedule is brutal, and replacing jonathan franklin and joseph fauria is gonna be tough. I think the huskers are gonna expose their o-line and their secondary. see it being a pattern for the most part.

 

[Carolina Guy]

just curious, why are you guys down on UCLA?

And up on Nebby? The only thing I can think of is that Nebby has gone to an easier conference?

 

[JML4481]

Up on Nebraska based mainly on schedule

Return 8 on offense-both tackles and center seniors, Martinez and Abdullah seniors....much to prove still...chip on their shoulder type attitude.

Only return 4 on defense, which is somewhat worrisome.

Nebraska Schedule:
vs. Wyoming
vs. So Miss
vs. UCLA
vs. SoDakSt
bye
vs. Illinois
at Purdue
bye
at Minnesota
vs. Northwestern
.......I have Nebraska 8-0 going into the last 4 of their games
@Michigan
vs. Michigan St
@Penn St
vs. Iowa

Now, to the breakdown of UCLA at Nebraska(bolded italicized are the key points for this game)
I really think the battle of this game will be won in the trenches for Nebraska

Nebraska O-Line:
C-Pensick-Sr. 6'2-275
RG-Long-Sr. 6'4-315
LG-Cotton-Jr. 6'6-305
RT-Sirles-Sr. 6'6-310
LT-Qvale-Sr. 6'7-310
vs.
UCLA D which features a 3-4 style....I think Nebraska's O-Line will open up holes for Martinez and Abdullah

As for the other side of the coin, I think the departure of Franklin will hinder Hundley early in the year until he develops a bit more. The early start time is also a big thing in my analysis of this game as I don't think UCLA will be hitting on all cylinders early on. (Note- UCLA does have a bye the week prior to this game)

Getting this under a td is where the value is at in my opinion.
I think this spread is 8-10.5 by game time. As I mentioned earlier, I am typically a game day bettor, but this is one that just happened to stand out to me.

Good luck this season,
Justin

 

[sportjunky]

good stuff guys. sacks were a big issue last season. sua filo is the stud youre probably talking about butre, he's prob going to stick at guard, with White and Goines staying at tackles. seems like their maturation, along with brendel, the center (all were frosh) will make for a much more improved oline. along with hundley being more decisive and comfortable, i don't think sacks will be as big an issue as last year.

the secondary will def be an issue that needs to be figured out. i think tho the front 7 (which i expect to be elite this season) could make them look good and help get through the learning curve.

one other point, school won't be in session until late september, so along with the bye week, that could be a factor that helps the team get acclimated to the early start time. i'm assuming they're able to make it out to lincoln earlier than they would if school was in session.

 

[Carolina Guy]

What an easy schedule. Maybe the easiest in the country? Bringing four back on defense would be my only worry to be honest. BOL.

 

[Elbutre88]

good stuff guys. sacks were a big issue last season. sua filo is the stud youre probably talking about butre, he's prob going to stick at guard, with White and Goines staying at tackles. seems like their maturation, along with brendel, the center (all were frosh) will make for a much more improved oline. along with hundley being more decisive and comfortable, i don't think sacks will be as big an issue as last year.

the secondary will def be an issue that needs to be figured out. i think tho the front 7 (which i expect to be elite this season) could make them look good and help get through the learning curve.

one other point, school won't be in session until late september, so along with the bye week, that could be a factor that helps the team get acclimated to the early start time. i'm assuming they're able to make it out to lincoln earlier than they would if school was in session.

great point about school not being in session. failed to even think about that. And yes, sua filo is the guy i was talking about. i thought i read he was gonna stay at LT? You sound more read-up on him though. I really think sacks are going to continue to be a problem because of how bad the O-line was last year, but also because franklin is gone. If the running game suffers like i think it will, that will force our boy mora to call more pass plays with further distance to go, hence, more sacks.

Regardless of the sacks issue, think Nebby less than 9.5 is gonna be a hit, but then again, i don't have their front 7 as highly rated as you do. Interested to see how they play as a unit in this game.

 

[sportjunky]

He played LT during the spring and he's a beast at whatever spot they put him, but mora seems high on the progress goines and white have made so I think they're gonna keep him at guard.

Will be a good matchup between ucla's front 7 and nebraska's running attack. LB unit is legit as fuck. The dline is loaded with studs but marsh is the only upper clansmen. If McCarthy and Vanderdoes live up to their 5 star billing then they'll really have something cooking.

Like CG said the defense might be the issue for the huskers and based on their message board it seems they're concerned about the interior of the dline.

 

[HUNT]

GL this year bro..crush