With
@TahoeLegend permission
I will start the thread since I have listned to Bet the Board podcast and have it ready for this week.
Season 4-1. Last week was loser with TCU
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KY @ Georgia -14.5/49:
GA has won 13 straight vs Ky and 6 straight games by 10+ points while keeping KY to 17 or fewer points in those 6 games. KY seeking 3rd 5-0 start in history with last being 2021. KY has not played away game yet. GA has trailed by double digits in last 2 SEC games for first time since 2016. GA is pitching a ZERO ATS this season. KY has scored at 28+ points in five straight games and they have 4 non-offensive TDs tied for most in FBS.
Payne: O coordinator (Liam Cohen) has improved KY offense. They ran straight up middle agst Florida and beat them there. The GA defense is not as good as 2021 GA defense. KY offense has lived on the explosive plays this year and not down to down efficiency. They have 16 plays of 30+ yards and are Top 25 in explosive plays but are outside the top 80 in down to down success. KY running up the middle won’t work this week. Passing game with Leary
“has lacked rhythm and he’s been inaccurate on 35% of his throws.” He likes KY receivers and
“thinks positive regression is coming” but he still named 2 receivers with 24% and 17% drops respectively.
“If you watched KY and GA last week, you tell yourself KY should be able to run ball here and maybe they find success b/c of Ray Davis who managed 8.3 yds per attempt after first contact last week. Then, you see Auburn’s QB Thorne running on GA last week. But, digging into numbers, GA allowed only 1.3 yds per rush until first contact on traditional running back runs and this week Leary is not a threat to run in KY’s pro style run game.” GA is 9th in country in tackling, so the yds after contact should diminish for KY. KY O line has performed better than expected but no starter has an average run blocking rate above replacement level. If GA can stop KY’s run game they should be able to put pressure on KY offense which is outside top 120 in avg 3rd down and distance to go. KY has played a schedule outside the top 90 and Payne thinks GA can have success on defense.
“The price stands out.” The books are
“begging for KY money here.”
Powers: He still has GA power graded #1, but has downgraded them 5 points since start of season. In their 2 SEC games GA had big time struggles, they have been flat and beaten at line of scrimmage. Upgraded KY a couple of points due to last week, but before that
“I was not particularly impressed. They had a fortunate cover agst Ball State, struggled mightily against Akron, Vanderbilt a phony final score due to 2 defensive TDs.” On Saturday night
“I have a sneaky suspicion I might be back to where I was before the Florida game.” GA’s final 4 possessions last week agst Auburn yielded 17 pts and 2 kneel downs
. “I don’t think Carson Beck has necessarily been the issue for the GA offense”, he’s top 20 QB with good numbers. Brock Bowers is a generational TE and a Heisman contender, McConkey’s return with 4 catches will help move the chains – a key return for GA. The O line for GA is the main concern with only 4.4 yds per run, lowest in a decade, with few explosives. GA O line have not played up to expectations. KY D front has some good players, top 10 agst rush and they have 2 pick sixes. But KY D has also given up explosives and they are #85 in country on third down success rate.
Notre Dame @ Louisville +6.5/54:
The first meeting btw the schools as both ranked schools. Ville sold out for game and 1st time since they last played each other in Ville in 2019. Ville 5-0 for first time since Bridgwater in 2013. Ville sinking 8th straight home win and they have not done that since winning 9 in 2015-16. ND has won 30 straight agst ACC teams, last loss in 2017 at #7 Miami. ND has covered 10 straight ATS and won 15 consecutive ACC road games and all by 10+ points, last week agst Duke being the exception. But, ND’s schedule this year has done them no favors with last 2 games being decided in last 30 seconds, now at Louisville with USC on deck. Week zero were in Ireland.
Powers: ND’s schedule is one of the factors in this game. The snap counts for key players are a concern after the last 2 games.
”This schedule is unacceptable and will catch up with them this week or next, I think it will be next. They have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs.” Powers thinks ACC officiating is an issue. ND’s biggest concern is wide receiver and are missing 4 of 5 starters from the opener…he thought this was a dire situation in Duke game but they have 2 starters back – Greathouse & Thomas. He loves ND TE Mitchell Evans. Powers is not impressed with Ville’s wins and schedule “seriously question their SOS.” NCSt held Ville to like 20 rushing yds and ND handled NCSt handily. Plummer, Ville’s QB, is facing ND 3rd straight year in 3rd different uniforms. Ville does have explosive capability with an inconsistent offense. Ville will not move the ball methodically against ND defense. Powers worried about ND being tired based on schedule.
OU vs Texas -6.5/60.5.
119th meeting and 1st time both teams are undefeated since 2011. Texas won 49-0 last year. Texas had a 300 yd passer, 200 yard runner and 100 yard receiver last week for 2nd time in school history. OU had 40 pts in 1H agst Iowa State and Gabriel has a 75% completion rate with 19 TDs and only 2 ints on the season.
Payne: I think OU is struggling to be multi-dimensional on O. Their run offense is “wildly below avg.” The passing game is better than both Washington and USC in the first 5 weeks, after the opponents are factored in. The O line is outside top 100 in offensive line yards created. Texas is TOP 15 in defensive line yards.
“A mismatch there.” Payne thinks that maybe OU can present challenges with (1) pace - Texas prior opponents outside top 100 in pace, and (2) explosive plays. Texas is outside top 70 in explosive pass plays allowed. This is also a step up in class for Texas on QB they’re facing. Texas been facing 2nd stringers, including last week. Payne asks:
Can OU take advantage?
Texas 5 straight games 30+ points first time since 2019-2020. Texas offense is bad in 3rd and short, 0-3 yds, tied for 2nd worse in nation. Ewers is good with no turnovers but had 1 last week. TE Sanders health is a concern – he went out last week. Status is day to day. Powers thinks he’s worth ½ a point. The run game with Brooks is looking better. Run blocking avg is only ranked #69 in nation and O rushing success #83. Sanders went out and then Mitchell the wide receiver became featured. Texas was dominating, more than score indicated, in their win agst Kansas. Concern for Texas is special teams, 2 subpar games in a row with fumbles on returns and 5 missed kicks already this season. OU D is much improved this year. The LB Stutsman and OU’s Payton Bowman look good, but in watching film he did not see OU D dominating – even against Iowa State.
Powers hesitant to declare OU’s defense capable of handling Texas’ offense but he has concerns re Texas on 3rd down, O line on rushing plays and special teams.
MD vs Ohio State -20/58:
OSU won all 8 meetings btw these two teams, avg 5 TD wins and 43+ in all of those games. MD 5-0 first time since 2001 and won each by 15+ points. Only 5-0 FBS not ranked, they are +9 in turnover margin 2nd in country. But concerns about MD opponents and their SOS to this point in the year. OSU has played best coming off a bye with an avg of 41 points in victories and going over the total with Ryan Day.
Powers: MD’s prior opponents’ Ds have been weak. Powers thinks the OSU D will be more than MD can handle. MD O does have skill at perimeter.
“This is OSU’s best D since 2019. I can safely say that.” He lists almost entire Buckeye Defense as standing out except for the D line which was pushed around by ND. But MD probably not the team to do it this week.
Payne: “
Buckeyes can turn out 7-8 yds per carry” and this is a step up for MD against OSU which has had 2 weeks to prepare. MD stuff rate is only 30% and their D is outside top 90 in D line yds allowed and outside top 100 in D rush rate allowed and stuff rate. All signs point to Buckeyes running well and for OSU to have success in the red zone – this helps McCord throw with play-action and he will get TDs and explosives.
“This specific game there are match ups that lead to OSU having offensive success.”
Col State vs Utah State +2/63.5
Powers is taking OVER 63.5. Tempo – Col State is #12 and Utah State #7. The totals market has not grasped the Utah State totals and Utah State’s last 4 games gone over OVER by avg of 26 pts per game while playing slow tempo teams. Now they play fast tempo team. Utah State lost their good defensive players in the transfer portal. Col State has a lot of weapons and the total line should be in the high 60s. (I see 65 now).
WAZZU vs UCLA -3.5/59 at the Rose Bowl.
First meeting since 2019 when UCLA won in Pullman 67-63. First Wazzu visit to UCLA since 2015 and they are seeking first 5-0 start since 2017. WAZZU have won 3 straight on the road, but have not won 4 straight on road since 2002. UCLA has lost 3 straight and 7 of last 9 against ranked PAC 12 teams. Cam Ward is #10 in completion %, 3rd in yds per game and 8th in passing efficiency. UCLA D has great accounting stats but they have faced no real offenses thus far.
Payne:
“Very early 2 way action this week. Taking 4 with Wazzu and laying 3 with UCLA.” The question is:
“What is the real UCLA defense? They have really played nobody on offense.” Bruins allowed 50% passing success rate first 3 qtrs against Coastal Carolina. Payne thinks UCLA is going to try to get WAZZU to run but WAZZU will be efficient with the pass. UCLA has questions re their defensive backfield. But, he thinks UCLA can draw a stalemate on D and has advantages on the other side of the ball.
Powers:
“Certainly this match up leads to more success for UCLA on the offensive side of things.” UCLA RBs split time and do well. WR good and O line good, but questions re UCLA pass blocking.
“Of all the units we will talk about in this podcast, the least impressive one to me is Wazzu’s Defense…#85 yds per play and not in top 75 in yds allowed per game.” Tackling been an issue for WAZZU
. “Certainly, there’s a pathway for UCLA offense to have success.” (UCLA has had 2 weeks to prepare).
BAMA vs A&M +2/46.5
Powers downgraded Bama’s power rating 3.5 since start of season. A&M is flat on their power rating for the season. A&M D looked bad agst Miami but looked good agst Auburn and Arkansas. Bama is top 3 in Power 5 teams in running %. 65% of plays are runs and avging 32 points per game, fewest for Bama since 2009. Passing yds of 195 yds per game, fewest since 2017 when they ran for 250 yds per game.
“Bama has to get explosives in order to win this game.” Bama wide receivers are a far cry from what they have had in recent past. Powers does not like Bama O line and
“you could argue the Bama O line is the biggest disappointment in college football this year.” The run game is what they rely upon, but they avg only 168 yds per game and 4.1 per carry, second fewest since Saban’s first year. The Bama O line cannot pass protect, 18 sacks in last 4 games and #122 in country in sacks allowed, allowing tackles for loss, #89 in EPA on early downs. This Bama offense is
“eww….their only path for success is hitting pass for explosives.” A&M defense line is playing up to their predicted success. But, I cannot get Miami out of my mind. Concludes:
“The trend line for A&M has been really good and I have still not seen Bama offense put 60 minutes together.”
Payne:
“This game comes down to which team can protect and have success on early downs.” Jimbo believes O line improving. Payne questions that and also says QB Johnson is holding onto ball too long. Metrically Bama defense has not been dominate but look to be getting closer and are improving with pressure and sacks. He points to Ole Miss game as good D performance. A&M has been poor on early downs - outside the top 75. Maybe Bama can pressure when A&M is in passing situations? Bama LB Lawson may miss this week again and his replacement cannot cover like Lawson.
“I don’t see A&M having a ton of sustained success. Early downs will decide this game.” “A&M getting the money from the open at +4 on down to current number.” Payne asks Powers: When is Bama going be a value? Powers says even at current -1.5 -2,
“Bama is not there yet. Maybe at ‘pick’ Bama presents value.” Payne gives numbers on Milroe and explosive play potential –
“22% of his throws are 20+ yards with a 148 passer rating, he’s 11 for 17 and 4 of the incompletions were drops. He has been amazing going deep. Makes me nervous taking A&M.”
Best Bet =
UNDER 48.5 KY vs GA. I am seeing 47. They made it a point to say that 48 is a key number.
