First round of the playoffs bets

divol

divol

The Spurs can suck my manhood
Will post my thoughts and plays here...

Hate first games of playoff series because usually they are nothing more than money burners for me...

So will focus on players props today.

Paul George Under 23.5 points, 1.85 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
Paul Millsap Under 9.5 rebounds, 2.28 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
Russel Westbrook Under 23.5 points, 2.14 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

All three in regular season match ups struggled to reach that number against today's rivals...

I like Boston, Charlotte and Porltand's prices for the series, but decided to skip the first two for now, hoping to get better number after Game 1...
 
Very annoyed with Westbrook's bet... scored bunch of points in garbage time to cover by half a point....
Was thinking to take the Under between him and Durant and made the wrong choice in the end...
 
Portland +8.5, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

I like Portland for the series here as well. Teams don't like each other and I'm really not sure how much the Clips are ready for playoffs, with Blake back only now. Portland should really give it a go in Game 1...
 
divol said:
Portland +8.5, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

I like Portland for the series here as well. Teams don't like each other and I'm really not sure how much the Clips are ready for playoffs, with Blake back only now. Portland should really give it a go in Game 1...
Click to expand...

Divol, how about Trailblazers/Clippers under 211?
 
Terrible start of the playoffs... Will make the count of the units on weekend, but it's 1W - 3L so far...
 
pip2 said:
Divol, how about Trailblazers/Clippers under 211?
Click to expand...

I was deep in to sleep already :)
In Israel it was 01:23am :)


I hate to bet totals in the first games of the series - unless there is very very good reason to do so...
 
Pacers +7.5, 1.93 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Took Pacers in game 1 for 4 units, but forgot to post it and today I like it even more. It's very hard to be a Raptor and not to think about the last two playoffs exits, that started with Game 1 loss as well. If I'm Indiana, I'm keeping the pressure on the Raptors. I'm almost sure that if Pacers will come to the final 2 minutes with game withing reach, Raptors will collapse and lose again. Very tempted to take SU here, but decided to play it safe.

Durant Under 27.5 points, 1.99 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle
Westbrook Under 23.5 points, 2.27 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Both underperform against the Mavs and with Barea questionable, I see no reason to think that the pace will be higher... I still don't get how RW finished with 24 points, sitting out the entire fourth quarter, but I doubt it will happen again. Can see Durant this time carrying the load, but will take my chances...
 
divol said:
Portland +8.5, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

I like Portland for the series here as well. Teams don't like each other and I'm really not sure how much the Clips are ready for playoffs, with Blake back only now. Portland should really give it a go in Game 1...
Click to expand...
This is a mystery. Why did you like them for the series???
 
Clippers have very low breaking point I believe. I thought they were done with that after that Game 7 win against the Spurs, but the meltdown against the Rockets proved otherwise.
Clippers melted two seasons ago against the Grizzlies, becoming the first ever team that lead 2 - 0 in the series, to lose 2 - 4, with all losses being double digits.
I thought that Blake's return may have hurt their chemistry and I'm still on the fence if it's true or not. As it appears right now, Blazers aren't the right team to test it, but with Clippers, you can never know...
 
Boston +6.5, 1.93 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
I trust Stevens to make the correct adjustments. Furthermore, I like to play well coached team, that play a big game without a starter. It's very hard for Atlanta to know Celtics game plan and how they will overcome Bradley's absence. If this one losses, I will take Boston again in Game 3.

Paul Millsap Under 9.5 rebounds, 2.30 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
In 5 meetings between the clubs this season, Millsap grabbed 10+ rebounds in one game only (16). In all others, he reached 8 at the most. At such odds, I will take the risk, knowing that I would be right at least 50% of the times...

On another note, I'm more than shocked that with the series tied 1 - 1, Thunder are getting only 1.03 odds to win the series. I know they will win it, but still... the odds are just crazy and appear to be off...
 
Charlotte to win the series, 3.84 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

I rarely take less than 10 units on future bet, but such nice odds allow me to do that. This series and Boston - Atlanta series puzzled people the most and I heard arguments for easy wins both for Miami and for Charlotte. I know the stat about crazy high percentage of teams that won Game 1, that won the series, but it means nothing to me. That is one of those stats that is completely useless in my eyes.
What I do see is a series that should be really tied and can be easily extended to 6 - 7 games. Both teams won each other on the road in regular season and Charlotte really great home team.
Heat have some advantage due to their 1 - 0 lead, but this one was 50 - 50 series in my eyes and one win shouldn't influence the odds as much as it did.
 
Some Real difference of opinion in Clipper Portland. Saying I disagree is a real understatement
 
Wrote my thoughts on both series, so nothing more to add...

Charlotte +5, 1.95 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle
Portland +8.5, 1.93 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
 
This is probably your best chance with Portland
Refs appear to not chalky
Portland: 7-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more
Los Angeles: 7-17 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games
 
Divol, how big a part does your database of trends play in your post season bet decision process?
 
0%
I believe that playoffs are mostly about match ups, zigs and zags and adjustments.
Usually it gets better from Game 3 and so on...
Hope it will be the case...
 
All three of the home teams tonight are facing 0 - 3 threat, so decided to take all three ATS, hoping that at least two will deliver. To be honest, very hard to bet on home teams here, but I do feel that there is some value here and that 2 out of 3 should cover...

Detroit +4.5, 1.93 odds - 6 units play
Memphis +12, 1.97 odds - 6 units play
Boston -3, 1.97 odds - 7 units play
 
Finally some ATS plays won :)

Charlotte -3, 1.94 odds - 4 units play - Pinnacle
Miami Under 99 points, 1.80 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

I expect Charlotte to play much much much better at home and just doubt that Heat can be as good on offense as they were in Game 1 & 2. Charlotte one of the better home teams in the league and I fully expect them to win here. Batum's injury though hurts a lot...

Portland to win, 2.04 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Clippers and Jordan played great two games in LA, but Blazers in their first home game of the playoffs... should be a very good game and I see Portland as favorites here.

Indiana to win, 2.04 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

If Indiana wants to have a chance in the series, this one is a must win for them. Valancunas and Joseph been great so far in this series, but Indiana has more experience and I just doubt they will lose both home games...

Durant Under 28.5 points, 2.10 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
Westbrook Under 24.5 points, 1.94 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Still believe that bookies offer the totals a point or two too high.
 
Should have been a 6 - 0 sweep, but Westbrook ruined it with 0.5 points cover of his total :(

p.s. with 4 free throws made in the last 36 seconds, when Dallas, down 8, decided it was a good idea to start fouling...
 
Nice work divol! I had my doubts about the Trailblazers game, but you nailed that one as well!
 
Record so far this post season:
Overall: 11W - 9L
ATS bets: 6W - 6L
Player props bets: 5W - 3L (two of the losses were by half a point on Westbrook!)
+7,17 units overall profit.
 
Didn't play anything yesterday.
Today played Charlotte -2 for 5 units and Blazers +4 for 7 units.
Was too tired, so guess I forgot to post it here (
 
Both plays won yesterday, but forgot to post, so posting both early, hope to be awake to add few thoughts:

Indiana +7, 1.98 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
Boston +7, 1.97 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle
 
I have Portland for 5 units to win the series for 4.44 odds, so not in any hurry to place another Portland bet and actually took LAC to win the series for 3.11 odds for 4 units.

Did take one teaser 4.5 points:

GSW -4.5 + Thunder +11, 2.00 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Will try to post some thoughts later.
 
Boston - Atlanta

I like the Under here. It's not only elimination game, but also, even with Thomas playing, I doubt Boston will reach 100 points and they know it. Expecting Boston to put extra effort on defense.
I think that both will struggle to get to 95 points and both won't make it past 100 points.
Under 199 points, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
 
Under won, so will continue with the same :)

Charlotte - Miami

In Charlotte, teams this season 0 - 4 in Under favor in games between them. Elimination game shouldn't be the one that will go Over.
I also want to close the series bet I took on the Hornets. I see this game as 50 - 50 and wouldn't be shocked if refs will again try to help Wade and Heat (like they did in Game 4, but couldn't save them). Game 5 mistakes should be enough to make the refs been much friendlier to the Heat, so prefer to close the series bet.
Under 193 points, 1.91 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle
Heat to win the series, 2.89 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Indiana - Toronto

All four games between the teams in Indiana resulted in an Under. Hope it will be the same tonight.
As for the game, Pacers managed to lose a game they should have won in 9 out of 10 times at least. Hard to predict how teams will react, but I will go with Pacers as more experienced team to know how to bounce of this upset loss.
Under 194 points, 1.95 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle
Indiana -1, 1.94 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

SA Spurs - Oklahoma

Westbrook Over 24.5 points, 1.99 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
 
edou1x said:
GL divol. only issue is that O/U are 30% since beginning of the playoffs
Click to expand...

Couldn't care less about that. The most it can cause is total moving by 1-2 points. Not enough in my eyes... I take it in to account, only cushion wise - if usually I prefer to have 5 points advantage between my total and total offered, now I look for 6 points or more advantage.
 
Wow. Trailblazers vs Clippers: it's like it's a Tuesday night in February with Lakers vs. Sixers...
 
Like the Westbrook over. Even in the game he struggled this year vs the Spurs he went 8-10 from the line and finished w/ 19. 2 years ago vs the Spurs he shot poorly, 40.7% from the field but still averaged 26 a game and scored over 24.5 in 4 of the 6 games.

GL
 
One bet tonight:

Toronto - Indiana

IF Toronto will smell blood, it can turn in to a blowout, since the last thing Raptors want is a close game, where all the nightmares from the last two seasons will return. Lowry continues to prove he can't be relied on in post season, while Pacers have more playoff experience and I'm sure they like their chances. Pacers missed their chance in Game 5 to close the series, but they will do their best to hang in the game and try to put pressure on the Raptors.
Toronto looked really really bad the last three games...
Indiana +6, 1.92 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Miami - Charlotte

Very hard to make a prediction here. I like Miami here and actually liked them to win the series after Game 5, but still... very hard to predict.
Charlotte won't go down without fighting and you can't really count on Wade scoring two three pointers again (I know that Walker really went off in Game 6 as well).
Like Miami ATS, but not enough to put $ on it...
 
Final record of the first round:
Overall: 18W - 12L
ATS bets: 12W - 8L
Player props bets: 5W - 3L (two of the losses were by half a point on Westbrook!)
+40,98 units overall profit (including 7 units profit on series bet in Miami - Charlotte)
Also went 3 - 1 on unposted plays, so actual profit is a bit over 50 units, so pretty happy how first round turned out...
 
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