February 2016

[hugh613]

YTD: 202-201-7, -29.77

Monday:

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2/1/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 511 Orlando Magic* Under 93½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs *2 UNITS*
2/1/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 512 San Antonio Spurs* -16 -110 vs Orlando Magic *2 UNITS*
2/1/2016 9:00 PM NBA Basketball 513 Chicago Bulls/Utah Jazz* Under 190½ -110 *2 UNITS*
2/1/2016 9:00 PM NBA Basketball 515 Toronto Raptors/Denver Nuggets* Over 204½ -110 *2 UNITS*

*Kind of gotten away from providing writeups this season as, well, let's face it... my opinion shouldn't mean much of anything this year, but I guess I can make the odd exception from time to time... Situational play at AT&T as Spurs have followed up every loss this season with dominant victories the following game (7-0 ATS, MOV 21.4, PA 84.7). Over at Pepsi as the Nuggets have been on a major scoring binge the past few weeks (8-2 O/U, 107.5 PF, 109.9 PA, and both teams scoring 100+ in 9/10), and 6 of last 7 between Raptors/Nuggets have gone over. Under at whatever they call that arena in Salt Lake these days as just about everything points to the under (0-6 O/U the L6 H2H, 0-7-1 O/U the L8 H2H at Utah, Jazz with slowest pace at home at 91.1, Bulls with dramatically lower numbers in their 7 B2B's this season (101.4 PF, 101.0 PA on the season, 96.3 PF, 96.7 PA in 2H of B2B), two teams that haven't been getting to the FT line at all as of late, and three umps (as tuck likes to call them) who don't call a tonne of fouls between them.

 

[hugh613]

NBAX 2015: 32-19-1, +15.85
October 2015: 10-14-1, -5.30
November 2015: 84-87-1, -27.17
December 2015: 42-40-1, -5.50
January 2016: 66-60-4, +8.20

 

[Tito]

bol hugh :cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 204-203-7, -30.17

Tuesday:

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2/2/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 701 Boston Celtics* Over 51½ -110 vs New York Knicks for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
*The gambling gods giveth, the gambling gods taketh away: all 4 bets last night coming down to the final possession, with a 5 point gift from Mike Miller in Denver, and a kick in the groin from Gordon Hayward in Utah. Anyways, the Celtics offense is on fire at the moment, having hit 52+ 1H points in 9 of their last 10 (in the fairness of full disclosure, though, the run started after the Knicks held them to 49 1H points at MSG on 01/12). As for the Knicks, the backcourt of Afflalo and Galloway have been getting torched by opposing backcourts the past little while, so not good news heading up against the trio of Bradley, Thomas and Smart. Will be on the 2H total as well (hopefully not chasing...) and, in all likelihood, the Raptors and Blazers as well.

Thanks Tito.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/2/2016 8:00 PM NBA Props Basketball 4283 C.Bosh points over 19½* -135 vs C.Bosh points under 19½ *2 UNITS*
*If the Heat don't try to the exploit the mismatch then, well, I don't know...

 

[B.A.R.]

Gl tonight

 

[hugh613]

Thanks B.A.R. Marcus Smart hits 3 3's the final minute of the first quarter the other night in Orlando to screw my under. Meanwhile, they can't hit a thing to start the game against the Knicks. Where amazing happens...

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/2/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 701 Boston Celtics* -4½ -110 vs New York Knicks for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*
2/2/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 701 Boston Celtics* Over 56 -110 vs New York Knicks for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*
2/2/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Toronto Raptors* -5 -110 vs Phoenix Suns for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/2/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Toronto Raptors* Over 52½ -110 vs Phoenix Suns for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
*Celtics 0-13 from 3 and apparently I've gone back in time as Amare's the number one option with Bosh taking a grand total of two shots. Might want to fade these plays as I've got a sinking feeling...

 

[captjohn67]

:cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 206-207-7, -35.47

Wednesday:

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2/3/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 Cleveland Cavaliers/Charlotte Hornets* Over 104½ -110 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Atlanta Hawks* -4 -115 vs Philadelphia 76ers for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Atlanta Hawks* Over 52 -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 508 Boston Celtics* -2½ -110 vs Detroit Pistons for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 508 Boston Celtics* Over 53½ -110 vs Detroit Pistons for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

Thanks capt.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/3/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Oklahoma City Thunder* -6½ -110 vs Orlando Magic for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Oklahoma City Thunder* Over 57½ -110 vs Orlando Magic for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Golden State Warriors* -5½ -110 vs Washington Wizards for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Golden State Warriors* Over 62 -110 vs Washington Wizards for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/3/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Atlanta Hawks* +1 -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Atlanta Hawks* Over 53½ -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*

 

[Tito]

gl bud

 

[Metallica]

GL Hugh
:cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 216-208-7, -17.67

Adding:

2/3/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 Orlando Magic/Oklahoma City Thunder* Over 104½ -110 for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*
*Almost...

Thanks Tito and Metallica.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/3/2016 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 520 Sacramento Kings* -2 -110 vs Chicago Bulls for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/3/2016 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 520 Sacramento Kings* Over 52 -110 vs Chicago Bulls for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 215-210-7, -20.07

Thursday:

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2/4/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 707 Houston Rockets/Phoenix Suns* Over 215 -110 *2 UNITS*
2/4/2016 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 703 Los Angeles Lakers* Under 99½ -110 vs New Orleans Pelicans *2 UNITS*

*The Thunder derailed what could have been a fairly epic night last night, but a win is a win is a win... As for tonight: Five of the last six between the Rockets and Suns have gone over. Numbers 5 and 7 in pace, and numbers 24 and 26 in DEFF, so the ingredients for a high scoring game are there. Also, a little too early to tell what shape the offense is going to take under Earl Watson, but 31 three point attempts against the Raptors for a team that wasn't taking that many 3's under Jeff Hornacek might be a positive sign. Of course, they still have to hit them, but que sera sera... In the five matchups the past season and a half, the Lakers have put up totals of 102 (thanks, in large part, to a 30 point outburst in the 4th quarter), 87, 80, 92 and 95 against the Pelicans. In 27 road games this season, they've managed to crack the 100 point barrier nine times. Prior to putting up 119 against the T-Wolves on Tuesday, the Lakers had managed to break 100 only once in their previous twelve games. Ok, admitedly, the Pelicans not exactly the best defensive team in the league, but this is pretty much the betting equivalent of daring Roy Hibbert to shoot a 3. If it hits, it hits...

 

[MrPrimeTime22]

Just some simple advice for someone that's -20 units in the hole already. Why continue placing 2 unit wagers if they aren't winning? Get your roll back and then place additional units in confidence. But, you seem to got the hang of it already.
BOL Supergirl, I'll pray for you to win some tonight to go splurge out in Ottawa. :shake:rayer

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 219-210-7, -16.07

Friday:

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2/5/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 862 New York Knicks* Under 95 -110 vs Memphis Grizzlies *2 UNITS*
2/5/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 865 Milwaukee Bucks/Utah Jazz* Under 188½ -110 *2 UNITS*
2/5/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 867 Chicago Bulls/Denver Nuggets* Over 206½ -110 *2 UNITS*

*Don't ask why I insist on continually burning money this season with my misguided faith in the Memphis defense, but this one does makes sense (on paper at least - don't they always) on a couple of different levels: Memphis ranked 27th in pace on the road, New York ranked 26th in pace at home, Knicks have cracked the 96 point barrier against the Grizzlies once the last eight meetings (ok, obviously both teams have changed quite a bit this season from the past few seasons, but still...), and last night's rally notwithstanding, the Knicks offense has been meandering as of late. Speaking of "pace" at home, Jazz with the lowest pace in the league at home at 91.1, and the last four H2H in Salt Lake have gone under (plus, there's that convoluted 'under' trend I posted in the discussion thread). And over in Denver just because that's the way to go these days now that the Nuggets offense has burst into life (plus, Jimmy Butler seems to think he'll play, so it should be bombs away in Mile High).

 

[hugh613]

Just some simple advice for someone that's -20 units in the hole already. Why continue placing 2 unit wagers if they aren't winning? Get your roll back and then place additional units in confidence. But, you seem to got the hang of it already.
BOL Supergirl, I'll pray for you to win some tonight to go splurge out in Ottawa. :shake:rayer

Thanks dude. Next time I need advice on how to post "wins" two hours after the game's done, or sneak in plays after the game's already half over (like posting Blue Jays over 9.5 when they're already up 16-0), or how to make sure I ALWAYS manage to bet the best line possible (you know, like when the total opens at 200, steams down to 195, but somehow ALWAYS manage to have under 200), or make imaginary bets that no book in the world would offer, or bet 5000 games a day without ever providing a shred of insight, you'll be the first person I ask.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 222-210-7, -10.07

Saturday:

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2/6/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 515 Los Angeles Lakers* Under 94 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs *2 UNITS*

*Not much on the radar for today (I know, even I'm surprised : ) but this one looks like it's got legs. Lakers have only crossed this number twice in the 5 H2H matchups with the Spurs the past season and a half (80, 112 (OT), 85, 87, 95), with one of those times being a few weeks ago when they put up 95 at Staples. Lakers offense putting up some points their past two games, but that was against two of the worst defensive teams in the league in the T-Wolves and Pelicans, so those numbers need to be tempered a lot. The Spurs (and especially the Spurs at AT&T), however, represent a whole different story. San Antonio #1 in the league in DEFF at 96.9, #1 in the league in DEFF at home at 95.4, and an eye catching 4.4 point drop on defense on B2B's this season (8 B2B games, 86.9 PA in those games vs. 91.3 PA during the regular season). Not surprising that the Spurs defense would step up in B2B games given what we know about Gregg Popovich (not wanting to overwork his 'veteran' team which, by extension, also means controlling the game at a more manageable pace). Admittedly, the Spurs defense not playing shut down the past few weeks like they were earlier in the season (not that anyone could have expected them to keep up those numbers), but think they should be fine against a subpar shooting team like the Lakers. I capped them in the 87-92 range, so let's hope for the best.

 

[laopadak]

GL Hugh. Your daily input and plays are appreciated.

 

[tuck321]

Hugh, where did you get the day records in NBA. Thanks and BOL

 

[hugh613]

Thanks laopadak and tuck. tuck, you can get day info on Covers from the individual matchup pages (I'm actually quite surprised you didn't realize that):

View attachment 40414

You can also get day info on the ESPN stats page:

View attachment 40415

The only real issue is what they consider a "day" game. I remember nbafan and I trying to figure it out last season because Oklahoma City had like 12 "day" games, which didn't really make any sense. I think we concluded that anything before 7:00 PM EST is considered a "day" game, which sounds right since most of the Thunder's Sunday games at home start around 5:00 PM EST. Of course, Covers and ESPN might have different definitions as well (doesn't help that ESPN only gives the stats, not the number of games), so you have to be mindful of that when looking at the numbers. Good luck.

 

[tuck321]

It is funny. I look at those pages a lot and never noticed it. Thanks

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/6/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 515 Los Angeles Lakers* Under 47 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/6/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 516 San Antonio Spurs* -9½ -105 vs Los Angeles Lakers for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

*Not thrilled about investing so heavily in one game, but the numbers make sense, as evidenced by the table I just whipped up on Excel (and, yes, even on my computer I use a font that's impossible to read, smart asses...)

View attachment 40417

So without knowing the odds for sure, think it's pretty safe to assume the Spurs are 8-0 ATS 1H on B2B's this season, and that the opponent's team total is 0-8 O/U 1H on B2B's this season (odds are the Spurs team total is only 5-3). 2H is where it gets a little more muddled either due to fatigue or, in all likelihood, complacency (ie. extended garbage time), which is one of the big reasons why I didn't go with them ATS for the full game. Like I said, not thrilled with tying three bets together like this (if the 1H team total loses, odds are I'm losing the other two as well), but sometimes you just have to trust the numbers.

 

[Metallica]

GL tonight Hugh
:cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 222-213-7, -16.57

Sunday:

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2/7/2016 1:05 PM NBA Basketball 855 Atlanta Hawks* -3 -110 vs Orlando Magic *2 UNITS*
*Fucking Spurs...

Thanks Metallica.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 222-214-7, -18.77

Monday:

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2/8/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Sacramento Kings/Cleveland Cavaliers* Over 111½ -110 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/8/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 505 Los Angeles Clippers* -4½ -115 vs Philadelphia 76ers for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/8/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 505 Los Angeles Clippers* Over 54 -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/8/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Los Angeles Lakers* Under 48½ -110 vs Indiana Pacers for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/8/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 509 Denver Nuggets* Over 52½ -115 vs Brooklyn Nets for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/8/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 513 New Orleans Pelicans/Minnesota Timberwolves* Over 106 -110 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/8/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 516 Atlanta Hawks* -4½ -115 vs Orlando Magic for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/8/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 516 Atlanta Hawks* Over 52½ -110 vs Orlando Magic for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/8/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 519 Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns* Over 109 -110 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
*To paraphrase my friend cxbbum: lazy ass bitches all over the court tonight. Must've all been up late watching the Super Bowl for fuck sakes...

 

[Tito]

on that Suns 1h over too...gl hugh

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Tito. Only good thing about games like these is that I don't have to bother watching the 2H - fucking Markieff Morris is just a cancer out there. Hopefully some better luck tomorrow.

:shake:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 227-218-7, -17.77

Tuesday:

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2/9/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 San Antonio Spurs/Miami Heat* Under 94½ -110 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/9/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 702 Miami Heat* Under 45½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/9/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Washington Wizards* Over 53 -110 vs New York Knicks for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/9/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Boston Celtics* -2 -115 vs Milwaukee Bucks for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/9/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Boston Celtics* Over 51½ -110 vs Milwaukee Bucks for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

*Somehow managed to show a profit last night after a horrific start to the evening. Hopefully things go a little smoother tonight... Spurs managed to fuck me good on Saturday night with their no show against the Lakers, but the defensive intensity should go up a notch or two given the history between the two teams. San Antonio giving up a league low 43.7 1H points this season, going up against a team in the Heat with the second lowest pace in the league. Barring a 50% shooting performance from Miami in the 1H, or a procession to the FT line (which seems unlikely given the officiating crew), can't see it being a high scoring 1H for either team. Wizards averaging 57.8 1H points their L5, Knicks giving up 54.0 1H points on average their L5, so the math works out. In addition, the Wizards have come out of the gates strong against the Knicks in the 4 H2H matchups the last season and a half (60, 53, 54, 56). Throw in the defensive confusion likely to arise from the switch to Rambis, and don't think Washington has too much trouble putting points up on the board in this one. As for Boston, that team total looks like a potential sucker line given how poor the Bucks are on defense, but when life gives you lemons, you just go ahead and make lemonade, or something like that...

 

[BJPLAYER]

gl hugh

 

[hugh613]

Thanks BJ. Good luck to you as well.

 

[captjohn67]

Tesla > Edison

hurt the man Hugh. :cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 229-221-7, -20.47

Adding:

2/9/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 706 Milwaukee Bucks* Under 52½ -110 vs Boston Celtics for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*
*Fucking Spurs do it to me again. I take them, they can't stop anyone. I don't take them, they hold the opposition to 35 points.

Thanks capt.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 229-222-7, -22.67

Wednesday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wVWazHTunSI" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>

2/10/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 San Antonio Spurs* -4½ -110 vs Orlando Magic for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/10/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 San Antonio Spurs* Over 50½ -110 vs Orlando Magic for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/10/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 502 Orlando Magic* Under 46½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/10/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 507 Denver Nuggets/Detroit Pistons* Over 105½ -110 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/10/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 513 Los Angeles Lakers/Cleveland Cavaliers* Over 105½ -110 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

*So the other night I write up a whole big thing about the Spurs on B2B's this season and how they're undefeated and how the defense has been awesome and blah, blah, blah. And, of course, they promptly come out with a totally weak ass effort against the pathetic Lakers (I swear to God, there could be a trend that's 99-1 and somehow I'll have managed to be on it the one time it lost...) Anyways, time to make up for Saturday...

View attachment 40447

 

[Tito]

gl tonight hugh :cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/10/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 502 Orlando Magic* +255 vs San Antonio Spurs for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*
2/10/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 502 Orlando Magic* Over 49½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*
*Fuck the Spurs. Fuck the Spurs. Fuck the Spurs. Seriously. I just went from 3-0 to 0-3 in the space of 2 minutes. Motherfuckers...

Thanks Tito.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/10/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 521 Golden State Warriors/Phoenix Suns* Over 113½ -110 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 230-229-7, -35.47

Thursday:

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2/11/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Washington Wizards* +½ -115 vs Milwaukee Bucks for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/11/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Washington Wizards* Over 54½ -110 vs Milwaukee Bucks for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
2/11/2016 8:00 PM NBA Props Basketball 5421 J.Wall points over 20½* -115 vs J.Wall points under 20½ *2 UNITS*
2/11/2016 8:00 PM NBA Props Basketball 5481 B.Beal points over 19½* -130 vs B.Beal points under 19½ *2 UNITS*

*Well, if and when I finally bring an end to this season of misery, I can look back on the past five nights and my misguided faith in the San Antonio Spurs as my ultimate downfall. Until then... Wiz have already beaten the Bucks three times this season, averaging a rather gaudy 60.3 points at the break, so seeing as how they're averaging 58.6 1H points so far this month through 5 games, not sure scoring should be much of an issue. And with the Bucks coming off an upset win against the Celtics the other night, seems as prime a letdown spot as any. As for John Wall, he's been red hot to start the month averaging 25.4 points a game (although, in the spirit of full disclosure, he's only topped 20.5 in three of the five games), and has also found success against the Bucks this season with exactly 19 points in all three H2H matchups this season, so one more basket shouldn't be that much to ask for (especially given how poor the Bucks guards have been on defense as of late). As for Bradley Beal, hasn't logged as much time against the Bucks this season due to injury, but he's also off to a fast start in February (21.2 PPG), so one or the other (or maybe both, or maybe neither) should be able to put up some numbers tonight. We'll see what happens...

 

[nbafan88]

disagree about the letdown for milwaukee bc how much they struggled before the last game and they are trying to avoid a sweep here

best of luck

 

[hugh613]

Thanks nba. You could very well be right - the way I'm running this season, I could take the Globetrotters ML and still lose, LOL. Just think the Wall/Beal matchup might be too much to handle for the combo of Middleton (-9.2 this month), Mayo (-8.0) and MCW (-3.5). Hopefully I manage to survive the 1H at least.

Good luck to you tonight as well.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

2/11/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Washington Wizards* Over 53½ -110 vs Milwaukee Bucks for 2nd Half *5 UNITS*
*Wizards with 40 points at 7:33 and then score a grand total of 2 points the next 6:30 while Wall and Beal stand around watching Ramon Sessions and Nene take all the shots. You really can't make this stuff up anymore. Might as well finish this off...