ESPN Handicapper's Picks--Week 9

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
The Bear and Steve podcast is getting more chaotic every week. They sound like two guys in a bar who are both distracted and have a hard time remembering what they were talking about. This week they kept talking about the highlight of the show coming up soon, Bear rating Halloween candy. No idea why they thought that was interesting, but they tried it at the end and both of the sounded embarrassed they were doing it

They also made it a point to remind everyone that what they talked about on the show was not their official picks, that only the column posted on ESPN was official

The Bear—Week 9 (0-0) Season (11-10)
Virginia (+7)
West Virginia (-3.5)
Northwestern (+2.5)
Bear’s Bank Picks—Week 8 (2-1) Season (14-7)

Stanford Steve— Week 9 (0-0) Season (13-10) Best Bet (4-3)
Minnesota at Maryland – Over (61)
Georgia St (+2.5)
Iowa St (-28.5)
Rice (+3)
Michigan St (+24.5)
Rutgers (+12)
Northwestern (+2.5)
Georgia (-13) Best Bet

Bill Trocci— Week 9 (0-0) Season (19-15)
Georgia -14.5
Oklahoma St -3
Auburn +3
Ohio State -13
Texas A&M -10.5

Phil Steele-- Week 9 (0-0) Season (11-18)
BYU -28.5 vs Western Kentucky
Penn State + 12 vs Ohio State
Indiana -10 vs Rutgers
SMU vs Navy Over 58.5
Texas A&M -12.5 vs Arkansas
North Carolina -7 vs Virginia

Scott Van Pelt— Week 9 (0-0) Season (22-18)
W Virginia -3.5
Georgia Tech +20
Penn State +11x
Illinois +7
Air Force +13x
Virginia +7
Pro
Bengals +5.5

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey (22-5 last year) Week 9 (0-0) Season (7-3)
N Carolina -7
UCF -3
Jesse (16-11 last year) Week 9 (0-0) Season (5-4)
Kansas State +4.5
Cincinnati -6.5

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 8 (0-0) Season (16-18)
Tennessee (-6.5)
Indianapolis (-3)
Miami (+4)
Seattle (-3)
Denver (+3.5)

My Picks— Week 9 (0-0) Season (21-14)
Wyoming +2x
Rutgers +12x
Georgia -15
Cincinnati -6x
Oklahoma -14x
Lean to Okla State but I'll hold off and see if that line goes to -3, lean to NW and Missouri. Lean to Penn State, but I view Ohio State the same way I do Alabama--don't bet against them, it doesn't pay off in the long run
 
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Yeah, Steve said again it's an auto-pick for him every week.

They both talked a lot about how much they liked Penn State this week and listed all the reasons why, but neither picked the game

Also said they don't expect the C Carolina QB to play against Ga State this week
 
Bear also talked at length about Missouri and Georgia Tech and how much he liked both, but didn't pull the trigger.

Said he will take Penn State if it goes to 13 but didn't explain why the extra half point was so important.
 
Bear and Steve discussed something else I've heard guys saying around sportsbooks--you always take take games where the dog is getting 2x, always lay the points where the favorite is laying 3x.

Bear claimed some "Vegas guy" told him there was statistical proof to back it up, and he believes it is good strategy, but I've never thought it was a good idea and never seen proof to back it up

I know giving 3x with a home team in the NFL is suicide because I tracked that once over a 4-year period and the laying 3x part was definitely a bad idea.
 
What is 2x and 3x ? Early in the morning here so my brain not operating at full capacity.

Might be able to provide the data.
 
In CFB...

Dogs of 2.5 cover at 47.3% the past decade (142-158 ATS)

Dogs of 3.5 cover at 53.8% the past decade (217-186 ATS).

In NFL...

Dogs of 2.5 cover at 49.5% the past decade (104-106 ATS)

Dogs of 3.5 cover at 51.6% the past decade (126-118 ATS)

The absolute best bet in both leagues when talking these numbers is road dogs of +3.5...

Road dogs of 3.5 in the CFB are 61-31 ATS the past 5 seasons, that's 66.3%.

Road dogs of 3.5 in the NFL are 51-36 ATS the past 5 seasons, that's 58.6%.
 
Just so happens to be a road dog of 3.5 tonight in CFB.

Tahoe - I heard someone on VSIN the other day say that exact same thing "Lay the 3.5, take the 2.5". I haven't been able to make sense of it since. The best I've come up with is that the books are setting a trap. I hate giving up that hook right around the FG.
 
emkee said:
Dogs of 2.5 cover at 47.3% the past decade (142-158 ATS)

Dogs of 3.5 cover at 53.8% the past decade (217-186 ATS).
Click to expand...
Excellent info, emkee. I have always seen the percentages pretty close to what you cite

Bear and Steve were talking about a slightly different situation though.

They used the WV -3x v Kansas State game as an example and Bear said some guy he knows said in those situations it's better long-term to take the favorite laying 3x than it is to take the dog getting 3x, and that's reason he was taking WV.

I hate laying that extra hook--that's why I passed on Okla State last week--and almost never do it so I doubt their claim.

Do you have numbers on that situation?
 
Joel Klatt bitched out this week and didn’t pick one his “almost upsets on the herd”, dunno why but no pick from him which have been pretty good.

I love me some Rutgers again this week, not as sure about ml as I was last week but gotta take the points imo. Hoosiers off a game they finally beat psu despite being out gained by a ton, can’t see them getting up here and Schino has his boys giving max effort. Give me dd all day and maybe ml again.
 
2daBank said:
Joel Klatt bitched out this week and didn’t pick one his “almost upsets on the herd”, dunno why but no pick from him which have been pretty good.

I love me some Rutgers again this week, not as sure about ml as I was last week but gotta take the points imo. Hoosiers off a game they finally beat psu despite being out gained by a ton, can’t see them getting up here and Schino has his boys giving max effort. Give me dd all day and maybe ml again.
Click to expand...
I havent added them yet but I like it
 
ESPN+ Handicappers Week 9 CFB

Doug Kezirian (15-7 YTD)Wyoming PK
Georgia -15
Northwestern +2.5
Oklahoma St -3.5
Georgia -7.5 1H
Kentucky Team Total u13.5
Va Tech/Louisville o67.5
Bill Connelly (10-10 YTD)SMU -13
UNC -6.5
SDSU -7.5
Preston Johnson (13-10 YTD)Cincinnati -6.5
West Virginia -3.5
Auburn +3
Texas +3.5
Duke -9.5
David Hale (10-9 YTD)Iowa -2.5
Penn St +11.5
UNC -6.5
Seth Walder (4-3 YTD)UNLV +14
 
emkee said:
In CFB...

Dogs of 2.5 cover at 47.3% the past decade (142-158 ATS)

Dogs of 3.5 cover at 53.8% the past decade (217-186 ATS).

In NFL...

Dogs of 2.5 cover at 49.5% the past decade (104-106 ATS)

Dogs of 3.5 cover at 51.6% the past decade (126-118 ATS)

The absolute best bet in both leagues when talking these numbers is road dogs of +3.5...

Road dogs of 3.5 in the CFB are 61-31 ATS the past 5 seasons, that's 66.3%.

Road dogs of 3.5 in the NFL are 51-36 ATS the past 5 seasons, that's 58.6%.
Click to expand...

The point that I have always argued on these kind of ATS records is that different books and sources can often have different closing lines. A 2.5 somewhere, could be a 3 elsewhere. A 3 somewhere could be a 3.5 somewhere else. I see ATS logs that show a certain spread for a given game, but then I remember that wasn't the close at my outlet and if you have enough of those it can impact the overall record.

One that comes to mind is Tennessee at South Carolina. Scoresandodds which is what we use, showed SC closed at +4.5. NC Sports (the power sweep logs available in the moneymaker mark's newsletter thread) shows it at +3.5. +3.5 is a loss, but +4.5 is a win. Same week TCU at Iowa State. Scores and odds had it close at +3.5 (which I had), the logs shows it as 3 and I remember reading on here some people said they saw is close at 2.5. We know the score landed on 3. Variance in the closing numbers happens enough that when the ATS records are compiled there could be enough games that impact the trend.

Another thing is people don't always bet at the closing number. So the game/team shown in the trend might show as a winner or loser, but the people that had that game/team might have a different result than the trend says that game should've.

I just never really get into those kind of records. Am I over analyzing it or do you know what I mean?
 
When I write down my lines I put a dash after the number to indicate the half pt. I think other people use the apostrophe, but a dash was always easier for me to see.
 
The guys on Inside Football on CBS Sports Network have done a pretty good job on their Underdog of the Week.

Here are their picks this week

Ricki Neuheisal—Arkansas +11
Randy Cross—Rutgers +12
Aaron Taylor-Rutgers +12
Brian Jones—Texas Tech +14.5
 
s--k said:
When I write down my lines I put a dash after the number to indicate the half pt. I think other people use the apostrophe, but a dash was always easier for me to see.
Click to expand...
I usually just write down the .5 but I'm a surveyor so I'm used to dealing with decimals.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I agree. Klatt was good at picking a weekly upset.

I thought maybe he quit doing it
Click to expand...

far as i know last week was the 1st time he was on cowherd this season and believe he picked Rutgers (that might not have been his pick but I do seem to recall liking it so thought it was then?) but then this week said he was taking the week off, what a putz.
 
Frank Costanza said:
He's taking some time off after picking Pitt to beat ND.
Click to expand...

oh shit that was his pick last week? No wonder he taking break!! Dunno why I thought he picked Rutgers? Lol. Now that you mention it I do recall thinking how the hell you could take pitt without knowing if Pickett was gonna play, their offense is totally reliant on him, without him they can’t do anything. Doesn’t much matter how good your d is if you can’t score anything. I woulda loved to play pitt with Pickett but never could find anything that said we would play which clearly he didn’t.
 
survive&advance said:
Like @TahoeLegend mentioned in the first post, Bear and Steve’s podcast is getting tougher to listen to. It used to be maybe my favorite for college football but the quality seems so much worse over the past two years. I assume the ESPN+ push is the reason
Click to expand...

god it was pretty awful this week. I started it over 6x and never made it past the 40 min mark! Lol. I remember back when they actually talked about useful things!
 
survive&advance said:
Like @TahoeLegend mentioned in the first post, Bear and Steve’s podcast is getting tougher to listen to. It used to be maybe my favorite for college football but the quality seems so much worse over the past two years. I assume the ESPN+ push is the reason
Click to expand...
And I’ll add that their podcast was so good because they each bring a different dynamic- bear is the nerd with great statistical capping and Steve is the former player with more of the ‘eye test’ capping. That combo works really well in a podcast where they have a ton of chemistry together. Just doesn’t hit the same when they have to dumb it down and instead write individual columns
 
Frank Costanza said:
Love Cincy this weekend.
Click to expand...
I do too. Double revenge game. both losses last year at Memphis. I'm thinking this was the game Cincinnati had circled all off-season. I was waiting to see if it would drop to -6, but finally decided I'd better get down because it looked more likely it would to to -7,

It's my Georgia pick I'm not so sure of. I've always considered Georgia a bad risk giving points and an even worse risk giving them on the road but I love the Georgia D and hate the Ky offense
 
TahoeLegend said:
I do too. Double revenge game. both losses last year at Memphis. I'm thinking this was the game Cincinnati had circled all off-season. I was waiting to see if it would drop to -6, but finally decided I'd better get down because it looked more likely it would to to -7,

It's my Georgia pick I'm not so sure of. I've always considered Georgia a bad risk giving points and an even worse risk giving them on the road but I love the Georgia D and hate the Ky offense
Click to expand...

I’m not a fan of laying dd but it really tough to see how the hell uk gonna score?
 
2daBank said:
I’m not a fan of laying dd but it really tough to see how the hell uk gonna score
Click to expand...
Same way I see it. Kentucky is changing QBs, but the new one is the transfer from Auburn who got beat out by the guy they are benching. Of course now that I write this he'll probably have the game of his career.
 
Coastal Carolina QB is a go tomorrow. Full practice today and yesterday.

Every public handicapper on the planet is taking Ga Southern in this game.
 
Best Bets and other picks by the pickers on Daily Wager

Bear-Penn St/Ohio State under, Memphis +6.5, Georgia State +3 Best Bet
Steve--Georgia -14.5 Best Bet
Guy With Beard--Texas +3.5, Duke -10 Best Bet
Guy at desk with Kezarian--W Virginia -4.5 Best Bet
Kezarian--teaser of some type, I quit paying attention when he said "teaser"
 
Bear just said he was 14-7 on the year on Gameday.....
Is his picks different on Air than the podcast?
 
Joey Galloway:
North Carolina-7 vs Virginia
UCF-3 vs Houston

Jesse Palmer:
Cincinnati-6.5 vs Memphis
Kansas State+4.5 vs West Virginia
 
Perkins, DE, and Stevenson, RB, both back off suspension today. Big boost for the Sooners on both offense and defense

Added Oklahoma before I heard this, but now I like them even better
 
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