ESPN Handicappers Picks--Week 16

[TahoeLegend]

Trying something new this week. There is a lot of valuable information already posted on my ESPN Handicapper's Scores--Week 15 thread so I'm just converting that thread to the ESPN guys picks for Week 16. It still shows their scores for the year which is all anyone is interested in anyway

These picks from Bear and Steve are from Wednesday's podcast, which was almost a complete waste of time. As usual they cautioned these are their picks as of now, but don't become official until they release them tomorrow (their picks now updated to conform to their official picks)

The Bear—Week 16 (0-0) Season (23-20)
Ball State +13.5
Coastal Carolina -3.5
San Jose State +6.5
Rutgers +6.5
Bear’s Bank Picks— Week 16 (0-0) Season (20-20)
Tennessee +14
Iowa State +6
Notre Dame +10.5

Stanford Steve— Week 16 (0-0) Season (31-24) Best Bet (7-5)
Oregon +3.5 (only picking because he says the favorite ALWAYS loses in Pac 12 title game)
Rutgers +6.5
Iowa State +5.5
N Dame +10x

Bill Trocci— Week 16 (0-0) Season (41-27)
USC -3.5
Ohio State -20.5
Oklahoma -5.5
Notre Dame +10.5
Alabama -17

Phil Steele-- Week 16 (0-0) Season (26-38)
Army/Air Force u 38
Wisconsin -12
N Dame +10.5

Scott Van Pelt— Week 16 (0-0) Season (42-39)

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey (22-5 last year) Week 16 (0-0) Season (14-10)
Jesse (16-11 last year) Week 16 (0-0) Season (13-10)

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 15 (0-0) Season (30-33)
Denver +6
Miami -1.5
Skins +6.5
Arizona -6.5
Saints +3.5

My Picks— Week 16 (0-0) Season (46-28)
Early Bets
Alabama -14x
N Dame +7x
This Week
San Jose State +7
Alabama 1st half -9.5
N Dame +10x

 

[2daBank]

looks to me like you were the undisputed king of last week pal! Nice job last week and on the season!! I was pretty terrible. Rolled into Saturday 3-0 then proceeded to get teeth kicked in. Usc was one my few winners and was very lucky as Bruins were covering for the entire 59 minutes plus before usc scored the go ahead td in a spot most teams would have ran out clock and kicked a fg., didn’t make up for any the wretched plays and beats I took otherwise. Had some teams who flat out quit and felt like worst bets my life, then ended the week with the mnf over but lost a browns+3.5/over parlay thanks to the last play the game safety! I been on a bit a skid last few weeks that safety just put a disgusting bow on. Time to right the ship and go out the way I came in, as a winner!!!!!!

 

[2daBank]

Dunno what it means but I do really like this card!!

I’ve gotten off the tulsa lean (I know you mentioned you leaned cincy). Stay away for me as I’m done with the games where teams havnt played much recently. Way more unpredictable imo.

 

[TahoeLegend]

I’ve gotten off the tulsa lean (I know you mentioned you leaned cincy

I had two different bets on Cincinnati -3 at Tulsa, both times the game cancelled. I'm passing this week. 13x is too much for me to lay. I might have taken the points with Tulsa if the were starting the third string QB who came off the bench late and won the last game for them. He looked better than any Tulsa QB has looked in 4 years, but Tulsa is always Tulsa and they announced the starter will still be the starter.

Cincinnati is a damn good team, but Fickell may be up 7 with first and goal and be afraid to score like he was against UCF, so my limit is 3 with him

I'm with you though. I like the card this week. A bunch of them have already cancelled and more are going to, but I see I lot I like for betting purposes and a lot I'm really looking forward to watching.

 

[2daBank]

I had two different bets on Cincinnati -3 at Tulsa, both times the game cancelled. I'm passing this week. 13x is too much for me to lay. I might have taken the points with Tulsa if the were starting the third string QB who came off the bench late and won the last game for them. He looked better than any Tulsa QB has looked in 4 years, but Tulsa is always Tulsa and they announced the starter will still be the starter.

Cincinnati is a damn good team, but Fickell may be up 7 with first and goal and be afraid to score like he was against UCF, so my limit is 3 with him

I'm with you though. I like the card this week. A bunch of them have already cancelled and more are going to, but I see I lot I like for betting purposes and a lot I'm really looking forward to watching.

def some should be good watches. If it wasn’t for the fact cincy and tulsa have only played like one game the last month I would prob be on the points. Nothing against cincy I just think tulsa pretty solid boarder line top 25 team themselves. Where you think this line be had tulsa pulled that game out against okie lite their 1st game amd come in undefeated with cincy? Can’t imagine nearly as high and tulsa really had the cowboys beat that game. I’m getting more interested in under but just a lean for now.

 

[2daBank]

Tulsa qb play is all over the place, we prob see a few different guys during the game assuming they struggling to score. Another way of looking at this is tulsa catching more or same as army did? I have tulsa ranked higher than army!

 

[TahoeLegend]

This is what I have so far. May be all.
Future Bets
Alabama -14x
N Dame +7x

This Week
San Jose State +7
Alabama 1st Q -9.5
N Dame +10.5

 

[s--k]

Tulsa qb play is all over the place, we prob see a few different guys during the game assuming they struggling to score. Another way of looking at this is tulsa catching more or same as army did? I have tulsa ranked higher than army!

Tulsa struggled mightily vs Navy and they stuck with Smith.

I don't know. I get that Brin looked really good and outplayed Smith vs Tulane obviously responsible for the incredible comeback and those throws. At the same time, I think I would stick with Smith personally. They have their QB for the future, but right now, maybe they should've lost games, but they haven't. They didn't lose the Tulane game because of Brin. You make a senior leader to frosh QB change when the team is winning not losing, I think there are a lot of unknown variables that come out of that decision. It's not an enviable situation to have to make, you see Smith is cold and then warms up and you know the position needs some better play, but then again Smith has been a part of all those comeback wins except for the one he was knocked out of.

Giving the kid his first start vs a D like Cincy over a healthy QB who has passed of 7700 yards in his college career would be suspect.

 

[s--k]

Tulsa qb play is all over the place, we prob see a few different guys during the game assuming they struggling to score. Another way of looking at this is tulsa catching more or same as army did? I have tulsa ranked higher than army!

That is an excellent point!

The Army Cincy game was quite a while ago. Still, Tulsa D is every bit as good as Army and probably better and offensively, Army is more efficient in what they do, hard to compare the styles...I don't know who is actually better...probably vs a D like Cincy I think Tulsa has potential to be better A game vs A game compared to Army. Cincy D is so tough it makes things difficult for Army. Tulsa atleast can run and throw (when the passes are there and the receivers catch).

Remember back, Cincinnati was not always great on offense this year. They had limited possessions vs Army but only scored 24 pts. Then the following week they scored just 28 on USF in an ugly inefficient game. After that the Bearcats got it rolling.

So off this layoff, can they just pickup where they left off? It should be noted they started their offensive roll vs SMU, Memphis, Houston, ECU, UCF. See something in common? All teams that play poor defense. Tulsa plays good defense. I think layoff and good Tulsa D will at least force Cincy to have to work and earn what they get.
And on the other side, the starts that Tulsa has had in just about all their games I can think of off hand...they didn't fall behind vs Navy, but the O was MIA early, as it was vs Tulane, SMU, ECU and then I can't recall further back than that. Tulsa has a hard time getting things going so they are going to need their D to hold Cincy down.

Total is low, I think that is why.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Bear was on Daily Wager today. Likes Iowa State and the points v. Oklahoma.

When he got to the Clemson/Notre Dame game he tied himself into knots as he does so often. Thinks the line is way too high, so much highers than he expected that he now feels he shouldn't take N Dame because he feels like someone is trying to get him to bet N Dame so therefore he can't bet on N Dame although he thinks Clemson is giving too many points and has some key guys out on defense. Finally decided the only thing he should bet is over.

Kezerian also liked the over.

 

[2daBank]

Bear was on Daily Wager today. Likes Iowa State and the points v. Oklahoma.

When he got to the Clemson/Notre Dame game he tied himself into knots as he does so often. Thinks the line is way too high, so much highers than he expected that he now feels he shouldn't take N Dame because he feels like someone is trying to get him to bet N Dame so therefore he can't bet on N Dame although he thinks Clemson is giving too many points and has some key guys out on defense. Finally decided the only thing he should bet is over.

Kezerian also liked the over.

the thought crossed my mind while that number def seems high it could absolutely be telling. Sure feels like they rather have Irish money doesn’t it? I really can’t see myself betting this one. Totally understand betting Irish, I certainly couldn’t lay the points.

 

[s--k]

the thought crossed my mind while that number def seems high it could absolutely be telling. Sure feels like they rather have Irish money doesn’t it? I really can’t see myself betting this one.

I feel like sometimes people out smart themselves on the lines. Not you, but Bear.

Consider that Clemson was -5.5 at ND and were leading 33-26 with 1:48 left when Tigers punted after some bad clock management (Clemson held stopping clock and then ran out of bounds). Had they managed the clock better Irish maybe don't tie as they have less time?

But anyway, that was bet down to 5.5 pt closing line at ND. What did they open it at 7.5? And it was known that Lawrence was out.

So a 7.5 opening line in South Bend, play that game at neutral and the line is 10.5? What is it right now, 11?

If I was saying this to Bear he might say, "yeah but Notre Dame won that game, you can't line it 7.5 or 5.5 again" and I'd say "well maybe, maybe not, Clemson was winning that game by 7 without Lawrence and some key defensive player".

I think the line isn't looking for ND money as much as it is just consistent with the last line they put up adjusting for neutral field now.

And maybe it's not truly neutral, Charlotte is a short drive from Clemson. They allowing fans? Travel easier and less for Clemson so maybe not a true neutral site. Guess it could be compared to Notre Dame playing in Detroit.

 

[2daBank]

I feel like sometimes people out smart themselves on the lines. Not you, but Bear.

Consider that Clemson was -5.5 at ND and were leading 33-26 with 1:48 left when Tigers punted after some bad clock management (Clemson held stopping clock and then ran out of bounds). Had they managed the clock better Irish maybe don't tie as they have less time?

But anyway, that was bet down to 5.5 pt closing line at ND. What did they open it at 7.5? And it was known that Lawrence was out.

So a 7.5 opening line in South Bend, play that game at neutral and the line is 10.5? What is it right now, 11?

If I was saying this to Bear he might say, "yeah but Notre Dame won that game, you can't line it 7.5 or 5.5 again" and I'd say "well maybe, maybe not, Clemson was winning that game by 7 without Lawrence and some key defensive player".

I think the line isn't looking for ND money as much as it is just consistent with the last line they put up adjusting for neutral field now.

that fair, and I would totally disagree with bear saying “yea but nd won”, single outcome shouldn’t change the numbers all that much. I think 7-8 would be totally fair, double digits seems a bit much to me, I’m not sure how much home field being factored this year or should be concerning the original number in 1st meeting? the reason I ask are they looking for Irish money is just cause there no way I could see myself laying 10 or more w Clemson. Are tigers really that popular the avg person willing to lay it against nd who has been up to every challenge on the year? Popular dogs always make me nervous and I just assumed nd would fall in that group.

 

[s--k]

Notre Dame gets ton of money no matter what. So the books are going to have a ton of action on both teams. There are always those people, some have been swayed a little this year, but there are always those people mostly in the south that do not think Notre Dame is legit because of their past failures.

Moneymaking Mark posts the sheets and I sometimes look at the Pointwise Power Ratings for reference. Here is their progression since the week before 11/7 game.

after 10/31 Clemson 75 - ND 68 (PR after Clemson beats BC and ND beats GT)
after 11/7 Clemson 78 - ND 70 (PR after ND beats Clemson)
after 11/14 Clemson 78 - ND 70 (Clemson bye, ND beats BC)
after 11/21 Clemson 78 - ND 70 (each team off bye unchanged)
after 11/28 Clemson 80 - ND 72 (Clemson destroys Pitt, ND beats UNC)
after 12/5 Clemson 81 - ND 69 (Clemson destroys VT, ND beats Cuse)
current Clemson 81 - ND 69 (neither team played last week, PR unchanged)

According to the current Pointwise PR and last week's PR that makes Clemson -12 on neutral vs ND. And Pointwise isn't trying to lure action on one side or the other.

 

[s--k]

Looking at all those, have to question why a 3 downgrade of Notre Dame off Syracuse. A one game B effort vs a poor team isn't worthy of a 3 point downgrade. At any rate that is one example of PRs making the line. Some other sheets make lines we can look at.

 

[s--k]

Are those key guys still out on defense? Skalski couldn't finish VT 12/5. Maybe he is still out? What about Tyler Davis. And there was a DB or two? Will have to ask @M.W. for the inside scoop on Clemson injury status.

 

[2daBank]

Are those key guys still out on defense? Skalski couldn't finish VT 12/5. Maybe he is still out? What about Tyler Davis. And there was a DB or two? Will have to ask @M.W. for the inside scoop on Clemson injury status.

yea I don’t know answer on those either, I didn’t dig much into this one cause was fairly confident this game wouldn’t make my card.

 

[2daBank]

Are you playing Irish Scott? You have me way more convinced they prob the right side even tho I still prob pass,, lol.

 

[s--k]

Are you playing Irish Scott? You have me way more convinced they prob the right side even tho I still prob pass,, lol.

Well let me say this...I will not be betting any of the favorites in the P5 title games. I will either stay away or take dogs.

 

[s--k]

Not a huge thing, maybe, but thinking of all angles, Notre Dame lost that Center Patterson who played vs Clemson and if Clemson has DT Davis back (I don't know) than that would be an edge that Clemson would have this game they did not last game.

Here is what a 12/6 The State article had from Dabo on injuries post VT:

Skalski "was just sore at the beginning and they held him out...precautionary" vs VT (groin)

Venables "broken arm" (entered game #2 in tackles)

LB Spector "think he's ok"

CB Booth "he was here and was going to try but didn't feel good about it...big ole thigh bruise...we held Booth [out]"

WR Ross on Fowler saying he'd maybe be back for ACC Title game "maybe he knows something I don't...that'd be awesome, but I don't think that's the case"

WR Ladson "we're hoping for the ACC championship game obviously we've got 2 more weeks"

No update on DT Davis given - he may've even returned already and I missed it. And again, that was 10 days ago, surely there is more current information to be told.

 

[s--k]

Tyler Davis played the last 2 games....so yeah, he's back. Doh.

 

[2daBank]

Well let me say this...I will not be betting any of the favorites in the P5 title games. I will either stay away or take dogs.

pretty confident I can say the same, usc being possible exception. At the moment them and mizzou only leans i have on favs this week.

 

[2daBank]

That is an excellent point!

The Army Cincy game was quite a while ago. Still, Tulsa D is every bit as good as Army and probably better and offensively, Army is more efficient in what they do, hard to compare the styles...I don't know who is actually better...probably vs a D like Cincy I think Tulsa has potential to be better A game vs A game compared to Army. Cincy D is so tough it makes things difficult for Army. Tulsa atleast can run and throw (when the passes are there and the receivers catch).

Remember back, Cincinnati was not always great on offense this year. They had limited possessions vs Army but only scored 24 pts. Then the following week they scored just 28 on USF in an ugly inefficient game. After that the Bearcats got it rolling.

So off this layoff, can they just pickup where they left off? It should be noted they started their offensive roll vs SMU, Memphis, Houston, ECU, UCF. See something in common? All teams that play poor defense. Tulsa plays good defense. I think layoff and good Tulsa D will at least force Cincy to have to work and earn what they get.
And on the other side, the starts that Tulsa has had in just about all their games I can think of off hand...they didn't fall behind vs Navy, but the O was MIA early, as it was vs Tulane, SMU, ECU and then I can't recall further back than that. Tulsa has a hard time getting things going so they are going to need their D to hold Cincy down.

Total is low, I think that is why.

that would be my thoughts exactly where it comes to tulsa defense being right there and the offense at least having the potential to have more success than army was able to with the option. I feel pretty good about thinking tulsa can keep cincy in the 20s, where tulsa point total ends up is def the biggest question mark for me. With that in mind It really hard not to like the points or the under but as I mentioned I hate these games where neither team has played much recently.

 

[s--k]

Definitely biggest fear with Tulsa are the consistent and continual slow starts:

Tulsa 0 points 1st Q vs Navy, two FGs at HT (led 6-3)
Tulsa 0 points 1st H vs Tulane, trailed 0-14 entering 4th Q
Tulsa 0 points til mid 2nd Q vs SMU, trailed 0-21
Tulsa 3 points 1st H vs ECU, trailed 3-17
Tulsa 7 points 1st Q vs USF, led 7-6 entering 2nd Q
Tulsa 0 points on offense 1st Q vs UCF (D got a safety), trailed 0-16 and 5-23

 

[M.W.]

Are those key guys still out on defense? Skalski couldn't finish VT 12/5. Maybe he is still out? What about Tyler Davis. And there was a DB or two? Will have to ask @M.W. for the inside scoop on Clemson injury status.

I heard Skalski was pulled as a precautionary measure because of soreness and fear of re-injuring rather than actual re-injury. He missed Cuse, BC and Notre Dame, three games in which Clemson went 0-3 ATS (-51,5 ATS).

SLB Mike Jones also missed the BC and Notre Dame games (0-2 ATS, -31 ATS).

 

[M.W.]

Are those key guys still out on defense? Skalski couldn't finish VT 12/5. Maybe he is still out? What about Tyler Davis. And there was a DB or two? Will have to ask @M.W. for the inside scoop on Clemson injury status.

Tyler Davis ought to be the healthiest he has been all year. His snap count last game (36) was his highest of the year He has played a total of 128 snaps v. Wake, Miami, GT, Pitt, VPI. Clemson is 4-1 ATS (+60 ATS) in those games, 0-5 ATS (-62.5 ATS) in the rest.

 

[TahoeLegend]

You guys are doing a great job on providing information. Saves me a lot of work.

I've got a question for any and all. I have two two-team parlays open. I bet Buffalo as the first part two weeks ago and forgot about it, then bet North Carolina over this past week as the first team in a second parlay

Here's the question--am I better off choosing one team and adding it to both parlays or using two different teams? I see advantages both ways--it's harder to pick two winners than one, but I'm hitting 62% this year so if I pick two the odds are one of the will be correct-- but is there some math principle that says one way is definitely the way to go?

All advice welcome

 

[2daBank]

You guys are doing a great job on providing information. Saves me a lot of work.

I've got a question for any and all. I have two two-team parlays open. I bet Buffalo as the first part two weeks ago and forgot about it, then bet North Carolina over this past week as the first team in a second parlay

Here's the question--am I better off choosing one team and adding it to both parlays or using two different teams? I see advantages both ways--it's harder to pick two winners than one, but I'm hitting 62% this year so if I pick two the odds are one of the will be correct-- but is there some math principle that says one way is definitely the way to go?

All advice welcome

not sure im the best to ask on this but unless I have one that I felt was super strong compared to rest I’m pretty sure i would use 2 different teams.

 

[2daBank]

Or you could use one team then start another 2 teamer with the opposite side!! If ya into hedging which I’m not! Like i said, I’m not the right person to give advice here!! lol

 

[2daBank]

Scott brought a ton of good info that alleviated my concern about the whole “begging for Irish money” misconception!

 

[2daBank]

I forget if that all in this thread or the other but either way!! Going back to the statement about bear letting that stuff get in his head I would never make a play based off nothing more than that assumption about books lining a game to lure in money on one side. Think he has made plays with that being the main and sometimes only angle. Not a good strategy imo. Ive let those thoughts keep me off a game but no way I make a play based off that!

 

[TahoeLegend]

Think he has made plays with that being the main and sometimes only angle.

He definitely has.

His mind gets so tangled worrying about what "they" are doing with the line he becomes the guy in The Princess Bride who is so brilliant he keeps going back and forth on which goblet has the poison he talks himself into drinking the poisoned one.

 

[2daBank]

He definitely has.

His mind gets so tangled worrying about what "they" are doing with the line he becomes the guy in The Princess Bride who is so brilliant he keeps going back and forth on which goblet has the poison he talks himself into drinking the poisoned one.

i used to have a friend at the other place who was a prisoner to these thoughts and line movement. I could never convince him the game decided on the field!! I guess he was sure books magically knew the outcomes! Lol, good guy but that line of thinking drove me nuts. The “sharp/square” stuff to, I mean I think there was a time when you could have success betting that way but things change, now days that no better than a coin flop imo.

no surprise he flamed out in dramatic fashion as he would be so invested in each individual outcome and took losses hard, I thought he was gonna give himself a early heart attack! Lol. Gotta play the long game!!

 

[TahoeLegend]

I guess he was sure books magically knew the outcomes! Lol,

I think that's what gets to Bear. He got so tangled up on the San Jose State/Nevada game last week that he talked himself out of betting on SJS. He started off happy with SJS, then started thinking about what "they" were doing by making Nevada favorite.

He said something like, "it sounds like they want you to take Nevada, so maybe they made SJS the favorite because they want you to think they want you to take SJS so you will take Nevada instead, so they want you to give points to the team they think will win, or maybe it's they want you to...."

Finally he got so lost he just decided to skip the game.

I'm like you. I don't worry about sharps or public or what "they" are trying to do.

 

[s--k]

It's fun. It's fun to analyze the lines and compare them and debate them. And it can be helpful. I don't think it is something that anybody can predict the outcomes of games based on a line higher or lower than it should be.

So many examples through the years and through the season that I've forgotten about. Here is one example though from just last week. Wisconsin favored at Iowa. That line made no sense. Some people will say that a line for a team that makes no sense should be played on (lay it with Wisconsin). Some other people acknowledge the line makes no sense, but then drill down into the data that comprises the matchup. A team like Wisconsin and that line will sometimes win and sometimes it won't. When it wins everyone is like 'oh yeah did you see that line, Wisconsin was the lock of the week, man that line stunk'. But when the team with the funny line doesn't cover nobody mentions it and it just becomes another game mixed into all the results.

Think it is better to just weigh the value you perceive on the line and then judge the teams for who you think they are and what they can or can't do rather than trying to guess what the man behind the curtain wants you do to.

 

[2daBank]

I think that's what gets to Bear. He got so tangled up on the San Jose State/Nevada game last week that he talked himself out of betting on SJS. He started off happy with SJS, then started thinking about what "they" were doing by making Nevada favorite.

He said something like, "it sounds like they want you to take Nevada, so maybe they made SJS the favorite because they want you to think they want you to take SJS so you will take Nevada instead, so they want you to give points to the team they think will win, or maybe it's they want you to...."

Finally he got so lost he just decided to skip the game.

I'm like you. I don't worry about sharps or public or what "they" are trying to do.

that doesn’t make any sense on the sjst/Nevada game cause books opened sjst favs and money drove that line! Surely he understands how line moves work?? If enough money comes on one side they move it to try and balance action! Pretty simple stuff!! Lol. That actually one the times lines can impact my decisions, I love to take teams books open as favs and money drives them to dogs. Books might not have a crystal ball but I trust their opinion on who should be favs way more than the money that disagrees!!!!

 

[2daBank]

So far this what my card looking like:

AF/army under 37, Just a must bet imo.

San Jose st +7 (bought the hook) pretty sure I’ll be on the money line as well, just bought hook cause tough to take 6.5 when 7 so close! Lol.

Tulsa/cincy un47. One my illinios square books had it this high so despite not loving playing these games with the teams playing very little of late im ok wit total. I feel pretty good saying cincy scores low-mid 20s. 28 the high side for them imo. Not as sure bout what tulsa can score but I think it take everything they got to hit 17, by my math anything higher than 45 worth a bet!!

Ball st/Buffalo over 67. Tailing Mars on this one, trust his Mac opinion as much as anyone’s and he said he expects 80 points in this one!! Good enough for me!!

im still torn between usc-3 and over which is creeping up so need to get on it before Friday if I go that route. With ducks lack of pass rush I think Slovis and company should hang at least 34 and that the low side imo. For all ducks struggles they still average a elite 7.1 ypp! Against a usc defense who gets gashed in the run game and has allowed 27 or more to every offense with a pulse hard not to expect ducks to reach 31 themselves! Im open to suggestions on which better usc or over!!!

Other leans:

Mizzou-1.., really been impressed with coach drink who just landed a top 20 recruiting class which the best class tigers have ever brought in!! I was bummed how they let that Uga game get away from them after hanging for the entire 1st half but this a big step down and think he have his kids back up for this one. Finishing with a winning record is a big deal for this program on the rise imo. Messy st doesn’t have the ability to pound it down tigers throats and think mizzou pass d be up for the challenge!! One coach was absolutely the right hire, the other who knows?

u la la +3.5. They gave coastal everything they wanted in 1st meeting, matching score for score in every qrtr until being edged out by a fg., I suppose coastal might just have that team of destiny thing going for them and they have burnt me a few times this month but imo ull has the better roster, qbs a toss up but when Levi Lewis gets out and looks to run he a huge weapon!! Both teams ran for over 2 bills the 1st meeting, ull sports the better d far as opp yards per play. Coastal defense better getting off the field on 3rd downs. Honestly I think these teams are incredibly equal so getting the hook seems big here. I could maybe get talked off this if anyone wants to try and sell me that coastal the right side?

 

[2daBank]

A sjst/laffy taffy ml parlay should have nice fat odds! Might go that route.

totally forgot to mention bama 1st half, 1st half team total, and everything else bama. That should be a given tho!! The gift that gives and gives!! No line can be inflated to much for bama this year! And against gators garbage defense? Bombs away. Surely we won’t see the dink and dunk game bama employed last week that still lead to blowing Razorbacks out, without even trying it appeared! lol

 

[TahoeLegend]

Ball st/Buffalo over 67. Tailing Mars on this one, trust his Mac opinion as much as anyone’s and he said he expects 80 points in this one!! Good enough for me!!

im still torn between usc-3 and over which is creeping up

Doubt I bet any more games, but I have to have 10 picks in the contest I'm in so I'm looking for more and several of yours interest me. Hadn't thought of the over in the Buffalo game, but that's an indoor game so no weather problems and I know Buffalo never calls off the dogs.

I'm 2-0 on Buffalo the last couple of weeks and it wasn't even close so I may take them even though I know nothing about Ball State. What are you thinking on the side on that one?

I haven't seen Oregon play, but I lean to USC same as you do. I'm going to dig into that one as soon as I have time

No one has had anything to say about Oklahoma/Iowa State. Any opinion on that one. I was going to go all in on Oklahoma until Baylor physically dominated their offense. That surprised me because Oklahoma did not come out flat for that game. They came out on fire but Baylor still physically manhandled them.

OU is not the same offense without Stogner. He's listed as questionable, but no one expects him to play.

What are you thinking on that one?

 

[2daBank]

I honestly have no idea. Looking at bulls margin all year seems like they the way to go. I don’t follow Mac at all jus tailing Mars on the over. Ball st looks like the best run d Buffalo has faced but so hard to know if the run d numbers legit considering they been stopping other crappy Mac run games!!! Seeing how Buffalo hasn’t had a margin less than 19 and that was 1st game of year think them or nothing but again ask Mars or s-k, they Follow mac way more closely than me. Think Mars said he expected a 50-30 type score.

 

[2daBank]

I think isu is the better team. Their defense has impressed lately and I think hall will get his on the ground. Sooners run d numbers look fraudulent to me as they have faced a bunch of crappy rushing attacks., rattler seems like the worst qb Riley has had in some time. Just a matter of can isu actually beat them twice in a season? Havnt decided if I’ll play it but it isu or nothing for me.

 

[2daBank]

Far as usc goes the points s-k brought up about them in VC thread are certainly fair, they typically hang a pretty strong number but they get their points in spurts and have had prolonged droughts in most their games, hopefully the success their lead back found last week carries over. Ducks pass rush is awful, 102nd in sack percentage. Give Slovis time and those wrs gonna do damage. Ducks offense does have a elite 7.1ypp and usc defense isn’t good. Looks to me like a game both teams score 30+, I just think Trojans will find a way to pull it out as the team w a nfl qb and wrs typically do. Tough to see ducks winning and the bright spot bout usc playing these close games not only trust them to get it done late and close but it keeps their spreads manageable !

 

[2daBank]

I don’t have many sides thus far. Handful of totals. Sjst who I know you On already. Assuming you gotta play full game so bama 1st half out but think they cover 17 for game.,

pretty sure im gonna be on mizzou but Scott gave me some things to look at in this game. I really like mizzou pass d when they get aggressive, I think they can dial up pressure and jump all the short stuff messy st throws. Will come down to the corners making tackles. Just think mizzou will be able to come up with a good defensive game plan vs the one dimensional leach offense. Love the way coach drink has this team trending and think finishing with a winning record will keep them focused despite falling apart vs Uga after playing them so tough for a half.

 

[2daBank]

Laffy taffy catching the hook tough to pass up. Teams so evenly matched getting 3.5 has to be the play imo.

 

[M.W.]

You guys are doing a great job on providing information. Saves me a lot of work.

I've got a question for any and all. I have two two-team parlays open. I bet Buffalo as the first part two weeks ago and forgot about it, then bet North Carolina over this past week as the first team in a second parlay

Here's the question--am I better off choosing one team and adding it to both parlays or using two different teams? I see advantages both ways--it's harder to pick two winners than one, but I'm hitting 62% this year so if I pick two the odds are one of the will be correct-- but is there some math principle that says one way is definitely the way to go?

All advice welcome

One option is picking the same side but playing it two ways: 1H, full game, team over, opponent under.

 

[2daBank]

One option is picking the same side but playing it two ways: 1H, full game, team over, opponent under.

solid advice there.

 

[TahoeLegend]

u la la +3.5. They gave coastal everything they wanted in 1st meeting, matching score for score in every qrtr until being edged out by a fg., I suppose coastal might just have that team of destiny thing going for them and they have burnt me a few times this month but imo ull has the better roster, qbs a toss up but when Levi Lewis gets out and looks to run he a huge weapon!! Both teams ran for over 2 bills the 1st meeting, ull sports the better d far as opp yards per play. Coastal defense better getting off the field on 3rd downs. Honestly I think these teams are incredibly equal so getting the hook seems big here. I could maybe get talked off this if anyone wants to try and sell me that coastal the right side?

I was leaning ULL early in the week, but I'm 5-0 on Coastal Carolina this year and I think that team of destiny thing is part of their makeup now. They beat ULL on the road and now get them at home and I've loved that C Carolina D since the first game of the season. ULL is damn good, but I think C Carolina is the tougher team. I've won all year betting the most physical team so I'm not going to change the last week of the season

I'm leaning to CC now. I think the same guys who poured their money in on Nevada last week against SJ State may bet this line down below 3.5 before the game so will wait a while to pull the trigger. Or I may just go ML. 165 now and that may be better than laying the points

 

[2daBank]

I was leaning ULL early in the week, but I'm 5-0 on Coastal Carolina this year and I think that team of destiny thing is part of their makeup now. They beat ULL on the road and now get them at home and I've loved that C Carolina D since the first game of the season.

I'm leaning to CC now. I think the same guys who poured their money in on Nevada last week against SJ State may bet this line down below 3.5 the last day or two before the game so will wait a while to pull the trigger. Or I may just go ML. 165 now and that may be better than laying the points

that 1st game was as close as could be. They matched scores all game with coastal edging them w a late Fg. Stats were fairly close as both teams rushed for around 200, McCall passing was slightly better but Levi had big impact with his legs,. I feel like U la la has just as much going for them as costal far as the team of destiny with their only loss being the Coastal game that could have went either way,, getting more than a fg key for me as I have very little doubt this one will be close as well. I’d give slight edge to the coastal oline but think ull has the more talented playmakers., maybe I made a mistake jumping off coastal bandwagon after cashing w them some early but just not sure i see them as the better team and the nail biters they have played last 2 weeks had to take little something out of them. Far from my strongest lean but catching more than 3 prob be a play for me. Although don’t wanna be against ya.

 

[TahoeLegend]

This is a hard one for me because I love teams that can run the ball and stop the tun in big games and title games and both these teams are very good at running the ball. And I've won more money over the years on ULL than any Sun Belt team

Coastal Carolina has an edge in stopping the run though--39th in rushing D to 83rd for ULL, about half a yard per rush--and a huge edge in penalties and time of possession, so that's what got me moving away from ULL.

But, as you point out above, Levi is dynamite when he gets rolling,

This year I've kept my discipline and passed on games like this that were too close for me to really see much difference and that may be what I wind up doing here

 

[2daBank]

This is a hard one for me because I love teams that can run the ball and stop the tun in big games and title games and both these teams are very good at running the ball. And I've won more money over the years on ULL than any Sun Belt team

Coastal Carolina has an edge in stopping the run though--39th in rushing D to 83rd for ULL, about half a yard per rush--and a huge edge in penalties and time of possession, so that's what got me moving away from ULL.

But, as you point out above, Levi is dynamite when he gets rolling,

This year I've kept my discipline and passed on games like this that were too close for me to really see much difference and that may be what I wind up doing here

I’m fairly confident I would take either team if I could get more then a fg on them. Kinda like when Steelers/ravens play in a non covid year, ya just take the points and sit back knowing chances are pretty good it a one possession game. Just so happens the team I prefer is the one getting the points here!!

The more we talk the less likely I am to get involved with the money line but still feel good about taking points. Might even forgo a straight play and instead put laffy taffy in a 2team parlay so I can buy it up to +4.5 and not feel the sting of the extra juice!! Lol. I’d be shocked if the outcome wasn’t up in the air late!

My biggest worry that I’ve mentioned about u la la many times is they strike me as slow starters. I’d love to wait and get a better number if they fall behind!! Of course when I do something like that then my team comes out blazing and a play never comes to fruition! That leaves me kicking myself for 3 hours! Lol. My perception is actually reality here as team rankings had laffy taffy with a 51st in country ranking for the 1st half compared to coastal being 25th. Second half ull has the stronger number which no surprise. They didn’t have that issue in the 1st meeting tho, both teams matched scores throughout!

7-7 after the 1st,
13-13 at half,
20-20 after 3rd
Then coastal took the 4th 10-7!!

doesnt get much more even than that and don’t think there was anything fluky about it. These 2 are about as equal you can get!! Coastal threw for bout 27 more yards, ull rushed for 26 more yards!!’ Lewis did throw a pick which was the only turnover in the game!! Both punted 4x!! Coastal had huge TOP edge and ran 17 more plays but ull went for 7.5 yards a play compared to coastal 5.8ypp!!! Can you possibly get 2 teams any more evenly matched???