ESPN Handicappers Picks--Week 16

2daBank said:
These 2 are about as equal you can get!!
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You're right. These two teams are close.

I thought the line would emulate the SJS/Nevada game from last week. It's now down to -3, but I'm going to hold off. I expect it to go lower. Probably won't go all the way to making ULL favorite the way they bet Nevada up, but I think it will drop below -3

Looks like the Cincinnati game is going up too. 14x a lot of places now and I saw 15 at a couple
 
TahoeLegend said:
You're right. These two teams are close.

I thought the line would emulate the SJS/Nevada game from last week. It's now down to -3, but I'm going to hold off. I expect it to go lower. Probably won't go all the way to making ULL favorite the way they bet Nevada up, but I think it will drop below -3

Looks like the Cincinnati game is going up too. 14x a lot of places now and I saw 15 at a couple
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that will prob keep me off ull then. No real interest if I can’t get over a fg. Pretty surprising, I would have thought costal be getting all kinds of love?
 
Couple of changes when Steve and Bear made their picks official.

Bear dropped Iowa State (he said he would take them if it gets to +6, but not at +5x, changed Rutgers from a lean to a pick

Steve dropped the idea of a Wisc/Utah teaser, passed on Marshall

I changed the original post to conform to their official picks

 
I don't have all of my "stuff" right now around me so I can't site dates or games, but on ULL there was a time this season that I believed they were not as good perception on them. Kind of a lull in the season. Right around when they were playing the likes of Ark St and Texas St. I was against ULL in both.

Like we know though, most teams don't stay the same and my feeling on ULL at the end of the year is that they improved from the low point I thought they were playing through at the time.

Having said that, still do not think this ULL squad is as good as last year. Something is just missing a little with them and I think it is the big play threat in the passing game.

It's a hard game to pick really. If it is going to be available under 3 I might have to consider Coastal. Think you said it Dan, I too thought that Coastal would be getting more love in this game and I am surprised where things are there. Maybe people feel they have peaked, the Troy game a signal? Man, the chance to complete a perfect season closing it out at home with a conference title game? We are going to get the best both have to offer, it's kind of hard not to like Coastal really.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Couple of changes when Steve and Bear made their picks official.

Bear dropped Iowa State (he said he would take them if it gets to +6, but not at +5x, changed Rutgers from a lean to a pick

Steve dropped the idea of a Wisc/Utah teaser, passed on Marshall

I changed the original post to conform to their official picks
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I understand the number you get important but can’t imagine liking a team enough to bet them at +6 but not at +5. I could see if it was a case where it fell off 3 or 7 but if I like them +6 odds are I’m still betting until it drops below 4!! For most part I won’t bet a dog of less than 7 unless I think they win anyways
 
2daBank said:
Well we wasted time talking bout u la la/coastal. They not playing.
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No!!! Don't tell me they cancelled. I was really looking forward to that game. Why wouldn't they just postpone and play next week or the week after?

It's not as if they have bowl games or the CFP coming up
 
The guys on Daily Wager made some college picks today.

Stanford Steve said Oregon +3 is his Best Bet this weekend (and again said it had nothing to do with handicapping, just the fact the favorite always loses in the Pac 12 title game. I don't even know if that's true)

Also said he was taking Notre Dame +10x plus small bet ML. Said Clemson win most games as soon as the other team gets a look at them because they look like a pro team, but Notre Dame is the tougher team and is not intimidated, and said Clemson O-line is not up to the standard they've had the last few years.

Said if he bet Ohio State/Northwestern it would be NW+10x for the first half, then probably bet Ohio State the second half.

Doug said he was going to bet Alabama team total over 45x, Steve said if he bet the game he would also bet it that way.. Brad Edwards said he liked the over on the game
 
TahoeLegend said:
Stanford Steve said Oregon +3 is his Best Bet this weekend (and again said it had nothing to do with handicapping, just the fact the favorite always loses in the Pac 12 title game. I don't even know if that's true)
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Hyperbole. There are upsets but it's not every year going by memory. Pretty sure Washington won straight up as favorites both their games but split ATS.
 
Blazing 5

Denver +6
fish -1.5
Washington +6.5
Zona -6.5
Saints +3.5

he says saints his bet of the week. Appears he gave himself a generous number! Lol. said he bet early and got +4, I do recall him mentioning he loved this way back on Monday so maybe he being honest. Still think ya should post the number at time you release plays.

Says bills in prime letdown spot, probably so but no thanks!

He says Flores can prepare Tua for hoody d. I agree fish way better but still scares me to take a rookie vs hoody. Fish have become the pats south with more talent now imo. I think the under the play on this one.

he thinks Washington will make this one super ugly and the football team pass rush will get home and cause problems.

zona his least favorite play, he said bet less. Thinks now that there film on hurts plus thinks that zona defense uniquely prepared for hurts since they see Murray running around in practice.
 
Last edited:
s--k said:
Hyperbole. There are upsets but it's not every year going by memory.
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I had the same thought. I seem to recall Chip Kelly won as a favorite also. I don't pay any attention to what happened to different teams with different coaches in different eras when I'm trying to figure out whether to risk my money
 
Since when do Steve’s plays have anything to do with capping? Lol.

I did agree with steve’s stance/rant about playoff rankings and games should count much more than bear who seems to be in the camp of they should be ranked based off “how good” he deems them to be. Imo that take (cowherd a big subscriber to as well) is completely asinine. For 1 We all prove every week most of us don’t have any damn idea which team is “better” so why should we rank teams based off that? Secondly the freaking games should count and ultimately determine which teams get a chance to win it all!! Who’s “better” on paper shouldn’t mean shit, the teams who win their conf should be the teams competing for the national championship! Otherwise what’s the fucking point!?!?! And yes playoffs should be expanded to include every power 5 champ and a group of 5 who should have a champ of their own. If you want to round it out with 8 and pick 2 teams based off who they think is best fine, I don’t care. Just think the conf champs and group of 5 champ should all get the chance cause then the season matters again!
 
Forgot to mention that on Daily Wager yesterday they said 68% of the money, 60% of the tickets are on Notre Dame,

They've been putting up that type information on college games the last few weeks, and Alabama and Clemson both had more than 80% of the money and 80% of the tickets on them. Alabama had 89% of the money on them their last game.

I don't get it. The sportsbooks are allowing huge disparity of money to be on one side and in every case Daily Wager has posted a team that had more than 80% of the money on them that team won.

How is that profitable? Are the books winning so much on parlays and propositions and in-game betting they don't even bother with trying to balance money on sides anymore?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Forgot to mention that on Daily Wager yesterday they said 68% of the money, 60% of the tickets are on Notre Dame,

They've been putting up that type information on college games the last few weeks, and Alabama and Clemson both had more than 80% of the money and 80% of the tickets on them. Alabama had 89% of the money on them their last game.

I don't get it. The sportsbooks are allowing huge disparity of money to be on one side and in every case Daily Wager has posted a team that had more than 80% of the money on them that team won.

How is that profitable? Are the books winning so much on parlays and propositions and in-game betting they don't even bother with trying to balance money on sides anymore?
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my absolute guess would be there just nothing they can do with a team like bama, Clemson, etc, luckily for them very few degenerates only play those teams so throwing us a bone on a few games is nothing when we gonna give it back on others then get killed on nfl every Sunday! Lol
 
By the time I figure out had I simply started w 500-1k and just rolled it all over on bama every week I coulda won a fortune it far too late! Lol
 
I had read or heard a podcast earlier in the week talking about books have had a absolute monster year so I wouldn’t shed many tears for everyone winning on bama every week. Apparently doesn’t even dent the overall take!!
 
Added Trocci picks. He's the leader among the public pickers and I doubt anyone catches him

USC -3.5
Ohio State -20.5
Oklahoma -5.5
Notre Dame +10.5
Alabama -17
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Trocci picks. He's the leader among the public pickers and I doubt anyone catches him

USC -3.5
Ohio State -20.5
Oklahoma -5.5
Notre Dame +10.5
Alabama -17
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he got shitty number on usc. I’d be scared to lay the hook. I’m scared laying the -3, lol.
 
2daBank said:
Blazing 5

Denver +6
fish -1.5
Washington +6.5
Zona -6.5
Saints +3.5

he says saints his bet of the week. Appears he gave himself a generous number! Lol. said he bet early and got +4, I do recall him mentioning he loved this way back on Monday so maybe he being honest. Still think ya should post the number at time you release plays.

Says bills in prime letdown spot, probably so but no thanks!

He says Flores can prepare Tua for hoody d. I agree fish way better but still scares me to take a rookie vs hoody. Fish have become the pats south with more talent now imo. I think the under the play on this one.

he thinks Washington will make this one super ugly and the football team pass rush will get home and cause problems.

zona his least favorite play, he said bet less. Thinks now that there film on hurts plus thinks that zona defense uniquely prepared for hurts since they see Murray running around in practice.
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It'd help if I looked at this post before reposting Herd. ;)
 
No picks this week for SVP I guess. No one has posted them and I don't see them on ESPN

Posted Phil Steele picks. I see lots of handicappers on N Dame and on Army/AF under, but he's the only one I've seen so far who is taking Wisconsin
 
TahoeLegend said:
No picks this week for SVP I guess. No one has posted them and I don't see them on ESPN

Posted Phil Steele picks. I see lots of handicappers on N Dame and on Army/AF under, but he's the only one I've seen so far who is taking Wisconsin
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SVP is out with Covid. He is self-isolating.
 
Daily Wager said 95% of all money wagered on Alabama/Florida is on Alabama, and 88% of tickets are on Alabama

Fourth straight week 90% or more of the money is on Alabama. We know who won the first three
 
TahoeLegend said:
Daily Wager said 95% of all money wagered on Alabama/Florida is on Alabama, and 88% of tickets are on Alabama

Fourth straight week 90% or more of the money is on Alabama. We know who won the first three
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gift that keeps on giving. What can books do? Not as if they not inflating the shit out the lines already! I played bama 1st half, team total over, full game and full game over. Going all out! Lol
 
Just a bummer it took me half the year before finally jumping in and getting that free bama money! Not easy for me to make those kind of plays cause I’m always skeptical of the “looks to good” plays.
 
I really need something to break my way, the last 2 weeks been a slew of bad beats or teams pulling no shows. How the fuck did we not cash the ball st/Buffalo over last night??? 49 points at half and we can’t reach 67?!??!!! Just freaking unreal!!
 
I saw Jessie and Joey picks last night. Think they were

sjst/boise over
A&M

bama
And forget the 4th, fuck
 
So hit bama 1st half ats and team total over. Lost -17 for game but hit over easy. 3-1 on the gift that keeps on giving! How everyone else do on that bama game??
 
2daBank said:
So hit bama 1st half ats and team total over. Lost -17 for game but hit over easy. 3-1 on the gift that keeps on giving! How everyone else do on that bama game??
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Went hard Alabama-14
Couldget the in game of +14.5 to hedge 2 half.....
Hit 1H and 1H TT Over
Lost 1Q

played some FL 2H and FL 2H ML to savage some damage

overall lost for 1st time playing Alabama this year
 
Most disappointing part my day is this Illinios book gives these awesome parlay boost on certain parlays. Small limits. Like today it was 50 Max bet but I did a 4 team with 40% boost and for some reason i didn’t buy points with iowa state! had I just bought a point or 2 I woulda hit a 4 teamer that had sjst money line as the final leg! Paid +2250 after the boost! Coulda paid fat but jus Havnt been able to bring any big plays home in the past weeks. lol

m
 
2daBank said:
final card:


isu +6/ml
Sjst +7/ml
Mizzou -1
Af/army under 38.5
Tulsa/cincy under 45
All the bama plays!
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Good finale. I recall you started the first week 6-1 or something like that

I was a little lat to the Bama party, but thanks to you guys on this thread started betting Bama first half and and I think I'm 5-0 on them
 
TahoeLegend said:
Good finale. I recall you started the first week 6-1 or something like that

I was a little lat to the Bama party, but thanks to you guys on this thread started betting Bama first half and and I think I'm 5-0 on them
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my beginning the year was much much stronger than the last few weeks that for sure!! Next year I’m gonna make a point of posting them all and tracking. If I recall got sidetracked by some bs with someone I don’t have any interest bringing back up and said “fuck it, not worth it”, but that was dumb on my part and won’t let it happen again!!

it took me awhile to join the Bama party too. So hard to get on plays like that, always wonder if you to late, will it end, etc etc. luckily I eventually said fuck it and it paid off!! Lol
 
Oh shit. I see we still gonna get to see coastal vs liberty which was taken away and replaced with byu. I should hate liberty for that since I got my wig split pounding byu that game! Lol.

any secret I lean liberty??
 
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