Todd Fuhrman, Payne, & Brad Powers deep-dive College Football Week 5 dissecting Key Metrics, Matchups, Picks, Predictions for a HUGE WEEKEND!
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Recap of last week’s games per Payne or Powers:
Florida State critical of running on second and long, 14 times for 5 yds/zero success. FSU toughed it out; Clemson was playing the best they can play.
Bama “top 5 defense” now.
Ohio State Powers not impressed…McCord had a lot of turnover worthy plays and OSU O line did not look good, ND D line won that battle. Lot of questions re OSU.
Connor Weigman Downgrade: Powers has downgraded A&M 1 to 1.5 points with Weigman out.
Utah @ Oregon State -3.5/44.5: Payne thinks that line will move to Beavers -1.5 if Rising plays.
Beavers are 13-1 straight up & ATS in last 14 home games. Utah has hard time on the road. Wittingham has said
“we must stretch the field” but can they? Beavers 2dary looked bad in 1H vs Wazzu. Payne does not know if Rising going to play. Payne: If Rising not playing then they will not have much O success. The Beavers D line “
can kinda get bullied, but Utah O line not been great getting push…Beavers defense secondary outside of top 100…Utah’s receivers not as good as Wazzu’s Wazzu pass plays 60% wins and 25% explosive agst Beavers, but w/o Rising Utah cannot throw Utah has 39% success rate passing and outside the Top 80 passing game.”
Powers thinks Beavers will run and try to prevent DJU from making mistakes. DJU is less than 50% passing last 2 weeks. He thinks Beavers’ play calling has been bad and DJU needs to have more designed runs. This will be best O line Utah D has faced in the run game, but they are not as good at pass blocking. Utah is #3 in country in stopping the run. Beavers need to try more deep passes to good wide receivers (Bolden & Gould). Utah has #1 edge rusher in nation and the Utah D has
“players at every level. But,Utah left receivers open in downfield passing that UCLA QB missed” so Beavers will likely have passing opportunities.
“Utah D is good but are they really good?” is the question based on Utah’s schedule thus far.
Florida @ KY -1/ 44 : KY has won first 4 games by 11 or more pts, but has lost 4 of 5 last conference home games. Gators have lost 8 of last 9 on the road. Florida 57th road game as ranked team vs unranked opponent since 1995, first time as underdog. They have gone 47-9 ATS but lost the last 2 times vs KY and LSU.
Powers on KY O vs Gators D. Leary for KY has career high for ints already this season. Counting stats say KY looks good but they have played weakest strength of schedule of the Top 40 teams according to Powers.
“Ky can look explosive but they have only run 220 plays (55 a game) third fewest in the country….see some signs for worry…only 47% success rate on O, worried re O line and Leary has 83 QBR and less than 50% completion rate.” Powers has seen throws which make him question Leary’s injury to Pec muscle. He likes KY running back and 3 wide receivers. Gator’s # 5 total D and PFF grades it #10 D in country. He likes Austin Armstrong…Florida D
“has exceeded expectations.” Gators have given up explosives. Florida “ate alive” Charlotte’s pro-style qb and when they brought in the option qb they moved the ball. KY may have tough time moving the ball with Leary, but they have always played one of best games agst Florida.
Florida offense is 55th in country in yds per play and last in SEC in scoring. Mertz leads SEC in completion % but is last in air yds per attempts and has only thrown 4 TD passes and was sacked 3 times last week. Payne says Gator Offense is ugly if they cannot run ball. But O line will be back together this week and have not been for some prior games. KY D numbers may be skewed b/c of their weaker prior opponents. Vandy was able to run agst Ky and Gators may be able to do so? Napier has been good coach in helping Mertz. KY is outside Top 70 in passing success rate allowed even with soft schedule.
“The betting market has sniffed the game out as we have seen line move from -3 to -1 and O/U from 47 to 44.” Gators will try and grind game out and have a controlled pass game.
Sounds like they liked Gators and UNDER at earlier numbers but now lines are about right and no call was made
Notre Dame @ Duke (they neglected to give Line they were looking at):
Last time a ranked Duke team hosted a ranked opponent was 1994 when #23 Duke hosted #13 Virginia and won 28-25. Gameday makes its maiden trip to Duke. Elko has evidently said:
“I’m not sure our team is ready for the circus to come to town.” Elko is 13-4 thru first 17 and best 17 game start in school history. Duke won 1st 4 games by 21 points.
Powers: ND had “missed opportunity” last week, it was “devastating.” He worries that ND players may have bad let down this week. Powers was surprised by success of ND interior O line vs Ohio State - got push agst OSU. Big thing to keep eye on are injuries to wide receivers; Thomas has a hamstring, another receiver is out and Salerno in slot has been out. Versus Ohio State ND receivers had only 8 catches for 94 yds. Duke #4 in country in pass D, but this has been agst lesser opponents. He does like ND’s T.E. Mitch Evans.
“ND O line owned OSU at times.” Duke D is very well coached and does not do dumb things or commit dumb penalties. Duke allows 4.4 yds per pass attempt, the best in nation. Clemson gashed Duke in run game at times. Remember, Clemson was inside the Duke 10 yd line 3 times and came away with ZERO points…should worry you if you are Duke. Last week, U Conn‘s right side O line got top PFF line grades in country against Duke defense (Powers was skeptical). He thinks ND and Estime can run the ball effectively and ND should keep it simple.
”This will be best team Duke has faced in the Elko era.” Besides a test of the Duke D, Duke qb, Leonard, will face his toughest test.
Payne says he
“spent 5 hours trying to figure out how Duke will move the ball.” ND Defense graded out very well vs Buckeyes. They only allowed 27% successful runs and only 4% of the run plays gained 10+ yards. Payne: The question is what is the ND mindset after last week? The Duke Oline
“has come back to Earth” since Clemson game. Payne thinks ND secondary has played well. “G
ame is a total pass to me right now based on the line.” He said if ND
“is able to show full out then the line is short.” Payne thought ND offensive game plan last week was
“dogshit.” Hartmann looked very good agst Ohio State and they lost b/c of
“the coaching staff let the players down.” He thought ND beat OSU badly
.
Sounds as if they like ND but are worried after last week. Powers upgraded ND’s power rating as did Payne. Duke power rating has also been upgraded.
Coastal Carolina vs Ga Southern -6.5/64: Powers gives edge to Ga Southern and said
“we’re laying it with Ga Southern…two teams going in opposite directions based on coaching hires.” So they are making another Non-Power 5 selection. Powers likes their offense and defense…defense he very positive. He is anti-Coastal and their coaching. Payne thinks Coastal overrated and coaching bad.
LSU @ Ole Miss +2.5/67.5:
Ole Miss is 1-9 in SEC games when held to 28 or fewer and 13-3 when scoring at least 29. This is Kelly’s first game agst a ranked road opponent while at LSU. LSU has lost last 3 road games vs ranked opponents and have not played such a game since the ‘21 season. LSU holds longest current OVER streak of FBS teams with 8. Ole Miss has gone UNDER 7 straight games agst AP ranked opponents, avg closing total line is a shade less than 61 and avg score ends shade less than 45.
Payne:
“No doubt Ole Miss improved defensively year over year and allowing less than less than 3 points when teams get inside their 40. But, does not think this is a TOP 30ish defense and it is stepping up in class vs a Top 5 offense.” He thinks LSU finds success thru the air where Ole Miss is outside Top 95 on defense. Long/short he thinks Daniels and receivers can win and LSU O Line is very good
“I think LSU is going to score some points here boys.”
Ole Miss O has looked not very good vs Tulane and Bama. LSU has questions on pass defense (Arkansas), and Powers thinks
“Ole Miss offense has the edge” vs LSU defense. But, Jackson Dart has taken brutal shots and he questions some of his throws with wide open receivers. There is inconsistency with running back and receivers as well as the O line which is ranked #56 per PFF. Dart has been best rusher on the team but he cannot continue to take the shots running. Franklin, the new portal rb from UTSA, is running with 1st team in this week’s practice. Dart and receivers can have success agst LSU secondary which is outside top 100 in several categories. Powers was essentially very disappointed in LSU defense, particularly the back 7, he likes LSU D line.
Kansas @ Texas -16.5/63:
OU is up next for Texas. Both teams 4-0 and both teams score over 30 points in all 4 games. Last 3 games have been high scoring. KU returned more O players than any team in country. Texas strength is their defense.
Powers: It’s going to be
“strength vs strength” KU O vs Texas D. He really like KU’s play caller on offense. He puts defenses facing multiple formations, groupings and KU will be best O Texas has faced. Daniels, KU QB, is Top 20 in QBR and has nice runners and receivers and the KU has continuity from last year. Texas D is best KU has faced, but Texas can let up some explosive pass plays. Texas up front is good and Sweat in the middle is #1 graded interior lineman in nation. He likes Texas linebackers. Texas secondary has not been as good as the front seven and tackling has been an issue. There is a path to success for both KU O and Texas D.
“If you made me say, slight edge to the Texas defense.”
Texas has a 21 pt qtr in each of 1st 4 games. Ewers has protected the football. Jonathan Brooks has chance for 3 straight 100 yards games. Payne: “Ewers one turnover worthy play this season.” Texas is outside Top 90 in rushing success and has only 15 runs of 10+ yards and 4 of them by Ewers. Texas only avg 3.9 points pr trip inside the 40. Sark understands Texas needs to improve. Saying all that, Kansas is getting a big step up for their defense and not sure they can handle it. Offenses KU has faced avg rank is 85 and “now they face a fringe top 10 Texas offense.” Best O KU has faced is BYU and KU allowed them to be successful on 65% of their standard down passes. Ewers is not good on completion rate under pressure and he can be sacked - problem is that KU is not getting any sort of pressure.
“I don’t see many stops here...I don’t see a path to getting Texas off the field very frequently.” Texas will want to get out early and then turn focus to OU.
Powers has upgraded Texas 2 pts since start of year. Defense front 7 and Ewers upgraded. Kansas has been upgraded, he probably did not give them enough credit before start of season and they upgraded 3 points.
BET BEST Season 4-0 and
“beaten the market by about 3 points, but it can’t continue to be that easy.”
TCU -12 at home vs WVa. (I am now seeing -13 -115).
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