Bet the Board. 3-0 on the year on their weekly selection. More importantly, I have found their breakdowns very useful thus far this season.
I found this week's pod very informative. It was long, 2 hours. I am making some plays based on what they had to say since it was confirmation bias to my prior leans.
FSU vs Clemson: FSU looking for first win since 2014 agst Clemson. Payne thought FSU had a vanilla game plan last week intentionally due to expected weather. He does think they need to improve. He also said most of the players had the flu last week, which went unmentioned. FSU has had trouble running the ball and it will not get better vs Clemson's front and thinks Jordan Travis will need to run the ball - FSU has bye week next week and thinks Travis will run. He also says Travis needs to
"quit trying to win the damn Heisman on every throw" and trying to make every hard completion on every pssing play, instead hit his receicers on shorter routes over the middle. He also concentrates on need for O line to show out like they did agst LSU. Payne thinks last week, and ever since LSU, Seminoles have been thinking about this game. Payne thinks Clemson's defense really has not faced a "real offense" outside of Duke and he thinks FSU will show up this game. Most important thing Payne said was
"I initially came into this game thinking I'd be all over Clemson, my mind has changed a little bit the last 36 hours." Powers believes Klubnick is mediocre at QB and does not have a lot of weapons either. No elite wide receivers for Clemson. Bright spots are Shipley and Mafah (RBs) and has questions about ability of their O line to blow people off the ball, ranked #68 by PFF, and he focuses on weakness of Clemson's kicker, Gunn, missed 3 fgs and missed an extra point last weakness. Powers is not a fan of FSU defensive coordinator and thinks their back end breaks down and opponents allow over 7 yds passing - Verse is good but has not played like an All American this season. The 2 teams' strengths go agst each other,FSU offense vs Clemson defense, and the weaknesses agst each other Clemson offense vs FSU defense. Seems like he thinks key may be Klubnick's play. Maybe Clemson has a new kicker this week per Furhman. Brad has upped FSU 2.5 points and Clemson down same amount and preseason he had Clemson a field goal favorite and now he has game about even. FSU almost loosing last week has had line effect. Sounds like overall both Payne and Powers have a very very slight lean to FSU under -3 and at -3 they'd take Clemson.
UCLA vs Utah: UCLA is 1-7 away vs ranked teams in last 8 years. Utah has injury concerns re starting QB, Rising. UCLA QB, Dante Moore may have trouble agst Utah defense? Powers thinks Moore is good but this game may be different for the freshman. Powers likes Chip Kelly despite what others say. He likes UCLA running backs, but had a weak schedule thus far. He also likes the #1 receiver. Pass blocking is not great for O line and they will be tested this week vs one of the best defenses in country who dominates on the D line push but UCLA has explosive potential which we may see? Payne says w/o Rising and TE Kuithe
"Utah's offense has not looked good." Are they playing this week? He thinks O line has not been exceptional and no running game explosive plays and with back up QBs they have 29% 3rd down efficiency. Payne sees no weapons w/o Rising and Kuithe. Payne think UCLA's defense is questionable and has not been tested yet this season. Payne
"there is a lot of variance in this game...it all comes down to injury report." Powers belives line goes to -6 or even -7 with Rising and Kuithe. (My guy does not have a line available right now)
Colorado vs Oregon: Fuhrman thinks game is "all about the market." Colorado has a 31 straight losses to top 15 teams and 2-30 away agst top 15 teams this century. Travis Hunter's absence is a "cluster injury" all himself and Powers thinks power rating for team is worth 1 point or even more. Powers says the starting 22 is good but no depth and he downgraded Buffs significantly since last week. Payne says
"we all understand Buffs record is better than expectation and they have had a lot of variance (basically says they have been lucky)." Colorado's upgrade "makes us uncomfortable." Payne thinks
"Hunter's value is at least 2 points" and "
Colorado is surviving b/c they have an NFL quarterback and....Travis Hunter is a shut down corner." Payne noted that Deion has been quiet this week and thinks that's important (makes sense to me). They did not say so, but they're not betting the Buffs.
Oregon State vs Wazzu: These 2 have never faced each other in 108 meetings where both were ranked. Payne sounds complimentary re DJU but "he's not perfect." This is his frist true test. Wazzu has been good agst the rush but it is Beavers strength.
"Oregon State will try and blame bully ball...and Wazzu has not faced an O line like this." Wazzu has also given up some explosive passes. Payne thinks Beavers have to try to pass more and the O line pass blocking been weak. Payne does not think Wazzu can stop the Beavers' run game and
"Wazzu ends have not gotten to the qb at rate we expected....The price here is wild to me. Right now we'd have Oregon State a 4.5 - 5 pt favorite on a neutral agst Wisconsin and they are laying 2.5 in this spot where Wisky was laying 4.5 a handful of days ago. Price is interesting here." Wazzu has had a harder schedule. Powers had Beavers win total preseason over. He has upgraded Beavers a little bit but Wazzu up more at +4.5 points. Powers thought opening line of Oregon being 2.5 favorites was light, he think it should be 3 or closer to 4 range. (-3 now for me). Problem for Wazzu been running the ball. No prior opponents could test Beavers secondary Can Beavers pressure Cam Ward by minimizing his time in pocket? Powers thinks Beavers have advantage up front and Wazzu will be passing and very limited in run game. Beavers corners were weak last week and San Diego State had some explosives agst them. Powers is impressed with Wazzu "but Ward looked not good last week." He does think the O for Wazzu is good and likes their 27 year old O coordinator and they can expose the corners but likes Beavers' safeties. He questions whether Cam Ward will have time since he thinks they will be one dimensional in their offense. Powers wanted to bet Over 54 but it is long gone.
"Generally speaking I still like the Over" but does not sound as if he will bet it (my line is 58.5 now).
Ole Miss @ Bama: 107th consecutive home game where Bama will open and close a favorite - won 99 of those games. Bama's former D coordinator, Golding, is now Ole Miss D coordinator. Ole Miss has 52 point avg and ran the ball for 299 last game. Dart, QB, tied for FBS lead at 12.5 yds per pass. Dart leads team in rushing too at 6.7 yd per carry (I think this is not good - but what do I know?). Ole Miss rb, Jutkins, is he fully healthy? They think so - he's been less than 100%. Powers
"I am not a big Dart fan" but he does say that Dart has produced. Powers does not like Ole Miss O line run blocking. He focuses on Texas' success via explosive pass game and thinks Dart can do likewise and also believes that Dart will have explosive runs...cites South Florida's QB with no pass game but still got loose for explosive runs. Powers says "Kool-Aid" at corner is a disappointment and relying on true freshman, Downs, at safety creates problems for Bama. Texas took advantage and he thinks Kiffin will do so too.
"I think Ole Miss offense has the advantage in this match-up [Ole Miss O vs Bama D]." Payne starts with statement
"Best thing that could have happened to Bama was watching Buckner and Simpson struggle agst USF defense...thankfully Milroe is back in the saddle, Milroe has highest floor and ceiling for Bama this season." Bama has O line struggles - known - and he thinks that Bama o line needs to be challenged (by the coaches and team members). They are bad on pass protection and getting run stuffed. They were disgruntled when Milroe was benched and had a "players only" meeting this week. Second thing, Bama needs to let Milroe run - on designed run plays he avgs 9.2 yds per run and they need to do this much more. Bama needs quick and easy target pass plays, not complicated decision making.
"Can't ask him to do the difficult things." He has
"30% turnover worthy throws" if you require him to read the defense and make adjustments. Golding for Ole Miss was D coordinator at Bama for 5 years and has the advantage on defensive game plan vs Bama O game plan. Powers says
"Ole Miss at 3-0 averaging 14 pts victory per game I have barely an upgrade, 1/2 point, on their power ranking...Ole Miss was outplayed by Tulane (I agree) and last week's score is very misleading, it was 27-17 middle of 4th quarter in a 48-23 final vs Ga Tech." Powers has downgraded Bama 4.5 power rating. But, Powers bet Bama this week despite all of the above seemingly negative comments. Payne chimes in and says
"this could be the floor on Bama pricing and it would be tough not to lay 6.5 if it got there." (it has at my place).
EMU vs Jackonsville State: Brad says
"lay the 6.5 with Jacksonville." He says EMU is worse than people think and gave examples from the season and its a play against EMU. He says what I have seen this year is "3 phony final scores." He goes over the Box Scores with prior opponents Howard, Minnesota and U Mass. Howard outgained EMU, Minn outgained EMU by over 250 yards and at home vs U Mass EMU was +3 in turnovers and only beat Mass by 2. Then Brad goes over the new FBS team's games and they are coming off a bye.....Powers is confident and
this "may be a blow out win."
Ohio State vs Notre Dame: ND is 0-5 agst OSU since 1936. Last week qb, McCord, for OSU looked better - gave stats. Payne
"Offensively for OSU there is a lot of projection/opinion and neither they or ND defense line has really been tested." OSU was projected to struggle due to losses from last year. This year
"40% of drives were 3 and out agst the Hoosiers...did not get O line push agst Yougstown until garbage time....Just once in 3 games - WKy - did OSU O exceed expectation" and WKy D had replaced 8 starters and is outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. ND defense has really not been tested either. Last year's game plan on D for ND was good, but this year they need to get more aggresive and roll the dice with aggressive defense - man to man coverage and load the box. McCord is 11 for 29 on downfield throws of 10+ yards with one of the best wide receiver groups in the country...over 10% of those throws were turnover worthy.
"Force McCord to beat you" Payne says. Powers thinks OSU D linebackers probably have the advantage in the game vs ND. He thinks Hartmann is really good but quality of competition has not been there...he saw Hartmann miss a few throws last week vs CMU after he took a couple of hits and thinks OSU will of course be better than CMU. Estime at RB for ND been great and PFF has him at #1 in country after last week's game. Concerns for ND offense is interior of O line, guard-center-guard - he saw it vs NCST. Powers sounds worried - he's a ND fan. He does like wide receivers and tight end. He has positive things to say about ND coaching BUT he likes what he is seeing from OSU defense this year.
"The edge rushers are coming into their own." He really like the Buckeye's linebackers and he thinks OSU D has the edge. Powers bet OSU in the summer when OSU was a bigger favorite and has downgraded them a couple of points this season bc of their offense; yet he still has OSU -4 based on his ratings. He says you will see a large OSU fan base in South Bend and historically that has not been good for Irish.
Iowa vs PennState: PSU is 9-0-1 ATS last 10 games. Iowa lost their top tight end with broken leg and Powers had very negative comments re Cade McNamara and his 'health and throws' and gives the stats to support it. He was very negative
"nothing to really like about Iowa passing attack....routes are terrible...no receiver would scare me if I was PennState." PSU D coordinator, Manny Diaz, is doing great job. Really nothing positive to say about Iowa O vs PSU D
"I don't see a pathway to success for Iowa's offense." PSU has scored 30 points or more in 10 straight games - nation's longest streak. No turnovers for PSU this season. Payne agrees with Brad Powers re McNamara (
"It's scary") and agrees with Furhman that Iowa D will be the toughest test for PSU offense this year. But, Payne does not think PSU offense will have to do much this game. Payne says although some say Iowa has #1 defense
"I'm not one of them...Iowa has not played a soul on offense" this year. He also gives stats to support his view that Iowa D is suceptible to big plays.
"It would not shock me at all if PSU finds some level of success that has not been completely shown yet...I definitely think PSU will have some short fields created by its defense." Bottom line as I heard it - PSU wins and it could be by a large margin, but they did not make the selection.
Best Bet:
Oregon -11 first half. Colorado O line problems with getting Sanders time to throw and D line problems. Lanning can prepare for a 1 dimensional offense. Bo Nix will find success thru the air. Thinks Ducks will score easily and early. If you listen you'd think they like them in the game too, but not official.
Besides the best bet,
Powers clearly took Jacksonville State -6.5
