Todd Fuhrman, Payne, Brad Powers Preview College Football Week 7 and deliver Key Metrics, Matchups, Picks, Predictions for USC vs Notre Dame!
www.bettheboardpodcast.com
My recall is they are
4- 2 this season, losing their last 2. But, if you look at each game they analyze they are pretty damn good, if not great, on many.
A&M @ Tenny -3.5/55.5
A&M lost 7 straight road games they say (wrong, A&M beat Arkansas September 30th). Vols won 12 straight home games.
A&M O line is poor and Vols D line should get to A&M QB, Johnson. Powers like Vol’s pass rush. The Vol push was good against a similar O line in So Carolina. Vols ranked as #5 D line pass rush by PFF. Vols sacks 22 times this year. Johnson QB counting numbers not comparable to Weigman. He’s been sacked 8 times in last 3 games. Bama held A&M to 67 yds running at 2 yards a carry average. Tenny D has an edge over A&M offense. A&M #88 in FBS in yards on early downs. Their rushing game not been good. A&M has allowed 101 QB pressures the 4th most in FBS. Powers is not impressed with Tenny 2dary. He still gives edge to Tenny D vs A&M offense.
Vols lead the SEC in rushing, averaging 230+ yds per game. Receivers are questionable with McCoy out for season. No 300 yard passing game this year. A&M been vulnerable to passing but not Vols’ offensive strength, they throw short. Milroe hurt A&M in long pass. Payne does not like Durkin, A&M D coordinator. Payne has concerns re QB Milton and his receivers going long. Milton is ranked QB #123 in deep passing and #109th in turnover worthy deep passing and adjusted accuracy in deep passing. A&M is outside top 100 in EPA per pass allowed. Only Squirrel White plays above replacement level for Vols receivers. “On paper” Vols need to win the passing battle to cover this spread and there are questions about their ability to do so. Vols off a bye and may be able to run on A&M after their physical game against Bama?
Powers has slightly downgraded both A&M and Vols since start of season. He mentions Milton for Vols and his “consistency issues” and A&M’s QB as some reasons for downgrades. He does like A&M’s D front. Both teams still in his Top 25 power rating.
Miami @ UNC -3.5, -4/57
Of course, Fuhrman mentions Miami’s screw ups on not taking the knee and then letting receiver get behind them. UNC 5-0 beating the Canes in 4 straight but three of those wins were by exactly 3 points. UNC scored 31+ in 5 straight games. Canes are 0-5 in ACC home games with Cristobal. Canes had season high 5 turnovers vs GaTech with only 3 prior the whole season. Canes 5-12 ATS with Cristobal. Van Dyke made bad decisions last game. UNC defense struggled against Appy State's balanced attack.
Powers still gives the edge in this game to Miami offense vs UNC defense. Miami yds per play, yds per game Top 10 and points per game Top 15. Cautions that three of the Miami games were against “suspect competition.” Van Dyke has looked good but last week made really bad decisions and he looked like Van Dyke 2022. Restrepo is certainly the major reason for passing game improvement, one of the top graded wide receivers in country. George and Young also give Miami big play threats. The RBs “been ok” and he prefers Parish. The Miami O line did not look as good last week re their push. UNC D is improved and a Top 40 unit per counting stats – but Powers “not there yet” in thinking they are an above average defense. He argues UNC facing Minnesota, Pitt and Syracuse offenses is not really impressive and App State was best offense they faced and UNC allowed 34 pts and almost 500 yards, 200+ rushing. UNC defense struggles on early downs and do not have great D rush rate. They have some good players in Gray, Echols and Rucker. Chizik recruited Huzzie at DB and he’s looked good. UNC’s improved defense will be tested.
UNC offense and Maye looked good vs Syracuse last week and Tez Walker being added showed immediate improvement for the offense. This is “easily best offense Miami has faced” and “easily the best defensive front UNC and Maye have faced.” This has to be a “Drake Maye game.” Lampkin is back on O line. UNC run game not looked good vs Minnesota and Pitt and now they face Miami’s front 7 and safety play which are “elite.” Miami allows only 28% run success rate and they are #1 in defensive line yds allowed. Payne is saying UNC needs to pass and Miami’s corners can be suspect. When you adjust for schedule he has Miami pass defense outside the Top 30. Tez Walker’s presence opens up all receivers for UNC and Maye can now take advantage of short throwing….Payne really thinks running on early downs will not work. He is also concerned re offensive line protecting if UNC runs w/o success then Miami D line can "pin their ears back" and get to Maye on 3rd downs. He thinks Maye can have success in passing if they essentially abandon early runs.
Bowling Green +4.5 @ Buffalo. WIN
Powers takes Bowling Green +4.5. BG is better in yds per play, yds per game, passing. Bowling Green has played the much tougher schedule. BG is “the superior team.” Buffalo has “had phony final scores this year,” cites Louisiana & CMU as examples. He is adamant in this pick and thinks they win outright. I have not kept track (guess we can go back and look) but Powers been good this year. I know he is 2-0 last 2 weeks. Last week he took OVER in ColState/Utah State and line moved against him by something like 2.5-3 poits and he still won. I tailed him for 2 Units at night after I had worst day and he won. I am tailing again.
Oregon vs Washington -3/67.5
First game since 2014 with 2 PAC 12 teams in Top 8. Last time Oregon defeated AZ 51-13. Washington upset #6 Oregon, a 12 point favorite, last year 37- 34 , Penix threw for 408 yds and Nix for 279 and 2 TDs. Oregon has won 7 of last 8 in Seattle. Oregon 15-3 ATS and straight up last 18 vs Huskies. Both team in TOP 3 in yards per game in nation. Huskies' Achilles heel is their penalties where they rank #130th out of 133…95 yards per game.
Oregon is balanced in top rankings for both run and pass. Payne thinks a battle here for betting line. Got down to -2.5 and Huskie $$ came in and we back at -3. “Washington has warts” but Oregon has “not played a soul.” Washington has had trouble on D front and when adjusted for schedule they are outside Top 100 in defensive yds allowed, havoc created, TFL & stuff rate. Ducks offensive line had questions but it is in TOP 25 in yd lines created, Top 15 in rushing success rate, Top 10 in EPA per rush. On paper looks
“all Ducks, but I wonder and Huskies have had 2 weeks to prepare.” Payne: “To me Ducks offense is very much phone booth.” ADOT for Nix is 6.4, 1 yard lower than last year and out of 155 QBs Nix is #149th in ADOT. Huskies cannot allow Oregon to dink and dunk and have the Huskie offense on the sidelines.
Huskies and Penix get fast starts and Penix leads FBS in passing yards at nearly 400 per game. He is the only QB since 2000 with 70% completions and 300 yds in first 5 games of the season. Penix is17-1 at home going back to time at Indiana. Penix has not been getting sacked. Oregon best Defense that Huskies have faced, Powers still gives edge to Huskies offense. “I don’t see a lot of weaknesses, starting with play calling.” Evidently, their O coordinator was wanted by Saban. Penix is Heismann favorite #2 QBR…leads in a lot of categories and has great wide receivers and “3 legit TEs.” Huskies can also run – 60-40 pass-run mix. AZ was able to present a good defense and Penix had no TD passes. Oregon must pressure Penix and they have had success with 18 sacks and as #5 in country in defending pass…but questions who they have faced. Texas Tech had success agst Oregon with 456 yds and if Schough had not turned ball over 4 times then Oregon likely loses. Gives the edge to Huskies, but “more of an even match-up than other side of the ball.”
Powers has significant power ranking upgrades +4.5 for Oregon and +5 Huskies, both solidly in Top 10.
UCLA @ OregonState -3.5 -4/54.5 to 55.5
First time meeting as ranked opponents since 2001 when UCLA #12 defeated #19 Beavers 38-7 with Beavers' current head coach, Jonathan Smith, QBing the Beavers.
First time since 2007 that Beavers playing UCLA as higher rated team. First Bruin trip to Corvalis since 2015 when Rosen was starting QB.
Bruins have lost 4 straight games, and 8 of 9, away from home against ranked teams. UCLA OVERS have been 'order of the day' when they take on ranked opponents.
Beavers are 15-4 ATS since start of 2022. Beavers defense bad on road and better at home. UCLA has questions re QB Dante Moore in his 2d conference road start.
Payne:
"Very straight forward to me. Beavers have to earn the right to force Dante Moore to beat them, for that to happen OreSt has to stop the run." The best offense Beavers have faced-Wazzu-created 2.4 yds per rush before 1st contact, and Beavers allowed 3.7 yds before contact against Cal (after Beavers had 2 weeks to prepare). Cal was succesful on nearly 70% of their runs. To get bullied at that rate by Cal is somewhat concerning. UCLA O line is better as run blockers than pass protectors (gave stats to support). UCLA offense in Top 30 in epa per rush. If Beavers can stop the run, "then it will be house of horrors for Dante Moore." Payne not sure Moore is definitely UCLA's best QB and there have been whispers he might leave if he did not get playing time. Moore has 'just not been good' against the tougher defenses he's faced. Even at home agst Wazzu it was a struggle - Moore just had a 48% completion rate from a clean pocket and a 62 Passer Rating with play action. Payne thinks Beavers get both starting corners back, Robinson and Cooper, who warmed up last week. Beavers can get to QB particulalry when at home.
"To me this is very basic, its all about OreState getting UCLA in down and distance which forces Moore to be a factor." UCLA is outside the Top 70 in schedule adjusted passing success rate and outside the Top 75 in late down success. If you get Moore in 3rd and 5+ its a problem.
OreState coach Smith has called UCLA defense "dominant." DJU had good performane last week after 3 game slump. Beavers want to run with Damian Martinez who has become 22nd Beaver player to reach 1500 rushing yards and avging a program record of 6+ yds per carry. Powers thinks DJU can have success throwing on early downs. UCLA defense is #1 in country in yards per play allowed but Powers gives edge to Beavers offense. UCLA defense was dominant last week vs Wazzu. But, UCLA's conference opponents (utah and Wazzu) have not been balanced offensively. UCLA's defensive rush led by Latu is one of the best in college football. DJU performane last week was perhaps the "best of his career." Powers likes Martinez and Fenwick getting downhill. Loves Bolton on special teams for Beavers and likes Gould receiver and also the Beaver tight end. Some concerns about Beaver O line "as good as they are" and they will need to show this week. He gives edge to Beavers O vs UCLA D.
USC @ Notre Dame -3/61.5, 62-63
USC won 38-27 last year to end a 4 year loss streak to ND. Trojans have won 5 of last 6 when both teams are ranked. Irish have lost their last 8 against vs AP Top 10 USC teams going back to 1995. Betting Trojans blindly OVER going 13-1 of last 14 with average score over 79. Freeman is 6-2-1 against ranked opponents, taking last week into account. USC offensively leads FBS with nearly 52 points a game and 7 straight games of 40+, tying most consecutive games in school history, 521 yds per game. 8.4 yds per play and ruthless Red Zone TD efficiency. USC been flat last 2 weeks.
Powers: USC has given up some sacks and cannot take off plays vs Mills and Cross for ND. "That being said, Caleb playing like a Heismann trophy candidate." But, Caleb and USC has been sloppy/careless [I have felt the same way when I have watched them]. Powers like RB Marshawn Lloyd from Scary and the
"multitude of weapons in receivers." "Any one of USC's top 6 receivers are better than any one of Notre Dames's top receivers." Powers thinks Branch returns on special teams for USC. Powers again worried about ND energy after their schedulke. ND is top 15 defense. No team avged 4 yards a carry in first 4 games , last 3 weeks 4.7, 4.7 and 4.8.
"If you are running on empty you do not want to face USC." Powers think Cross is All American on ND D line and leads team in tackles - dominates up front. ND snap counts are up on D and their offense has not helped the ND defense who has started #115 in field position. Went over Ville starting fields - it was shocking when he gave the numbers. Powers says "keep in mind that ND conditioning coordinator quit in summer...and guy that took over is MAC level in experience. Is that going to be a factor?" Powers gives edge to USC offense. Powers has downgraded ND after last few weeks 2,5 points.
Keep tabs on the forecast this week.
USC defense has missed tackles and gave stats. Neither ND offense or USC defense is in good form. Some variance with these two. 25% of ND offense plays vs Ville resulted in a negative play. You start to wonder what is left in tank, 8 games in 8 weeks. And, ND had mid-terms this week and ND players go to class. Duke pressured Hartmann on 54% drop backs 2 weeks ago. Hartmann held on to ball longer agst Duke than other opponents but ND had injured receivers. ND O line does do well in opening up rush...went over O line having to switch positions due to injury. ND has to consistently run against USC and Payne questions the ability to do it. USC is outside the top 80 in scheduled adjusted success vs the rush. outside top 100 in EPA per rush allowed. He says "get your best 5 up front and let Estime and Love go." USC has only had "a 31% pressure rate in last 3 games combined and that's something to think about." Maybe Hartmann have easier time passing than last 3 games? USC defense outside top 80 in early downs, so maybe ND run early and then pass. Payne thinks there is a path to success but questions re ND fatigue that needs answering. Monitor the weather - if game was sloppy and cold then it helps ND - they need to run with Estime and Love. ND now has artificial turf, not grass.
BEST BET: Michigan State +5.5 WIN vs Rutgers. Last 2 data points Sparty outgains MD and Iowa and MichState managed over 3 yds per rush before first contact against Iowa VTech ran agast Rutgers. Been a good bye week been good for Sparty per reports. Sparty can stop the run. Sparty not devulging their starting QB to make Rutgers prepare for all 3.
