ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 3

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Adam Kramer had the best year last year, but was 1-7 last week, the first week I remember he was under.500. I see a few I like a little, but not sure any are worth a bet

Stanford Steve—(4-2) (6-4) Three Year Record (103-79)
Florida +6x Best Bet Win
Colorado vs Colorado State Over 63 Win
Wyoming+30 vs Texas Win
West Virginia-2.5 vs Pittsburgh Win
Minnesota+7.5 vs North Carolina Lose
Illinois+15 vs Penn State Lose

The Bear—(2-2) (6-8) Three Year Record (98-89)
Ohio +3 . Win
Purdue +2.5 Lose
Tex A&M -36 Win
Illini +15 Best Bet Lose

Scott Van Pelt—(4-5) (15-14) Three Year Record (164-125)
Boston College +26 Win
Illinois +14x Lose
Miss St +9x Lose
Missouri +3x Win
Ohio +3 Win
Minnesota +8 Lose
ECU +9x Lose
Florida +6x Win
Purdue +2x Lose

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(8-1) (15-11) (75-52)
Ohio +3x Win
Ohio/Iowa St u 44x Win
Missouri +4x Win
Rutgers -7 Win
Florida +7 Win
Oregon St/SD State u 48x Win
Fresno St -3 Win
Arizona -17x Win
UConn -9x Lose

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five—(0-5) Three Year Record (94-100)
Chi +2x Lose
NYG -4x Lose
Den -3x Lose
NE +3 Lose
Car +3 26-24

Phil Steele—(3-2) 9-7) 2020-21 Total (80-89)
Nevada +28 Win
Florida +6x Win
S Carolina +27x Win
Oregon State -24x Lose
Northwestern + 18x Lose

My Picks— (2-0) (6-4) Teasers (2-3) Three Year Record (150-97)
Florida +6x Win
W Virginia +2x Win
(Teasers: Fla/W Virg W, Georgia/Okla St L, LSU/Ga Southern L)

ESPN D-League Pickers:
Joe Fortenbaugh— (2-2) (3-8) Two Year Record (45-41)
Florida +6x Win
Miss State +9x Lose
Colorado State +24 Win
Bama -33 Lose

Matt Millen--(0-2) (2-3)
Miss State +9x Lose
Minnesota +7x Lose

Dalen Cuff--(2-0) (3-2)
W Virginia +2 Win
Duke -18x Win
 
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Added ESPN D-League picks. Fortenbaugh says he is worried about his Colo State play because the coach spouted off about Deion and may but it back
 
www.bettheboardpodcast.com

College Football Week 3 Picks and Predictions - Bet The Board Podcast

Todd Fuhrman, Payne, and Brad Powers deep-dive College Football Week 3 and deliver Key Metrics and Matchups, along with Picks and Predictions
www.bettheboardpodcast.com www.bettheboardpodcast.com

KSt vs Mizzu: KState is 33-18-1 ATS since Kleinman head coach. Powers has upgraded KState a couple of points and downgraded Mizzu a couple of points after 2 weeks. Payne wonders why Brady Cook for Mizzu is not in game and passing more. He breaks down pass vs run plays and gives numbers illustrating his point. He also finds that KState pass defense can and shud be tested. He does think they have good players but last game they left receivers open and Mizzu must try to pass b/c they probably cannot run effectively agst KState front. Payne had some situational factors: This game is a sellout and KState has to travel by bus due to airport construction. Powers think game shud be closer to -6. He does say: “Handicapping 101 says ‘spot Mizzu’ but I do not see how I will get to window for Mizzu.”

LSU vs MissState: 117th meeting btw these 2 teams. MissState is a team that loses big recently when they step up in class of opponent and looked bad last week (AZ). Powers have downgraded LSU but not much since FlaState loss. He noted that LSU played FlaState evenly first 40 minutes and did not score in red zone twice and FSU had some short field TDs. Payne thinks LSU has to be attacked in the air, but Will Rogers is not being utilized in the passing game. Payne does not have confidence that Rogers and Messy will do it here. He said that you cannot throw short vs LSU and he had stats : "In LSU vs FSU, FSU threw 8 times at or behind the line for 15 yards and Jordan Travis had his only pick – LSU corners are undersized but quick." MisstState’s receivers are short and do not match up well here. 27% of Messy’s runs were “stuffed” agst AZ. Payne concludes: “I am not sure MissState has the right scheme or personnel to consistently threaten LSU.” Powers says Kelly is “good in these spots and beats the teams he is supposed to” and he did so at Notre Dame.

Minnesota vs UNC:
UNC has not had consecutive 3-0 starts since 96-97 and have been 3-0 only twice from ‘98 to 2018. Gophers have rarely played Top 25 teams on the road and have not been a good. Powers thinks Minny has a good new runner, Taylor got 150 last week but he does not like Minny QB Minny ranks 104 in the pass offense while the Minny pass blocking is the 3rd best in the country – QB has time but he misses receivers. He has hard time seeing Minny “keeping up with UNC.” Payne says on the surface UNC defense is improved and Minny’s offensive line has not looked good in the run game and their push. He says the game may come down to UNC D line vs Minny O line and Appy State found success in the trenches – implies that Minny O line may be able to do so. This is going to be a game of competing styles and Minny has to run bc they cannot pass. “If Minny cannot run the ball as efficiently as needed and Drake Maye builds a lead it’s over.” Payne speculates that UNC may actually say “fuck the NCAA and play Tez Walker.” Just speculation but some rumors.

South Carolina vs Georgia:
Powers has downgraded GA a little bit – looks like they’re sleepwalking and the O line has looked bad (Ball State). Last year GA D dominated SCarolina. Bottom line they do not think much of SCarolina. Payne did say “This is the kinda game that I hate, I just hope the line does not get to 28.5” ( I took it to mean he’d then consider taking SCarolina). He also noted that Shane Beamer used to be on Kirby Short’s staff. They do not think SCarolina can run the ball at all. Payne did think Rattler “has looked fantastic” but has no time to throw and SCarolina cannot drive the ball effectively or with the success. Payne concluded “I do not want to step in front of GA here.”

Tenny vs Fla:
Gators have not lost at home vs Tenny since 2003. Tenny has never been a TD favorite at Fla – most was “3.” Napier has yet to win a rivalry game. This is important game for Napier and team’s recruiting. Fla has been a home underdog 4 times since 2018 and is 4-0 agst the spread, winning 3 outright. Powers thinks Tenny has been erratic, including QB Milton – Tenny’s yds per pass attempt is 3.5 yds less than last year and with few explosives agst VA and Austin Peay. Milton still has not thrown an interception at Tenny. Payne says game will be determined by Gator’s ability to slow down Tenny offense. Tenny offense has been sluggish and its been hard to replace NFL caliber players from last year. The 3 top rated pass catchers for Tenny so far have been running backs. Powers says Gator D line “looks a little fat” and out of shape. Milton’s running not been good. Payne: “I do not see Gator’s offense doing a ton here, we all believe Tenny D is trending in right direction…up to Gator D to keep this game in range…tough to win in Swamp at night.”

ColoSt vs Colo:
Both Fox and ESPN gameday shows will be here. Powers has significant upgrade of Colorado since first game, up 22 points since end of last season. “I don’t want to continue to take positions against Colorado until I get a handle on them and there are massive deficiencies, they are getting dominated at the line of scrimmage.” “My numbers say bet Colorado State, but would not go to window until late in the week if I wanted to bet ColState.” “Colorado State O line has not looked good either.” Long/short Powers wants to fade Colorado but not this week. He said “wink wink wait until next week” (Oregon). Payne notes ColState is off a bye. ColState D could be torched by Colorado slot receivers…Wazzu receivers streaked on ColState. Payne: “My line does not get Colorado to 23 point favorite, but as Brad intimated we are bidding our time here.”

They discussed Texas vs Bama and their conclusions were Texas is legit, defense was SEC caliber, Bama is down and probably will not reach their season win total.

Best Bet is 2-0 and this week it is LSU -9.5 Besides what is said above they think there is a big coaching mismatch, Messy cannot play bully ball agst LSU and will not have success in the air.
 
www.outkick.com

Clay Travis' Gambling Picks For College Football Week 3: Tennessee-Florida, Colorado-Colorado State & More

Last week was a mess.
www.outkick.com www.outkick.com

Last week was a mess. We went 5-9 running our yearly record to 17-15.

VA @ MD OVER 49.5 WIN
In a battle of two schools that should still be in the ACC, Maryland, the Big Ten school that I always forget is in the Big Ten, is going to win. But the over will cash with ease because Virginia is 0-2 and can’t stop anyone. I could make this more complicated than it needs to be, but I’d rather go ahead and lock all of you in with a win on Friday night to start our weekend on a winning foot.

LSU @ Messy +10 LOSE
I get it, LSU scored a billion points last week on Grambling and all of a sudden we’re supposed to forget the entire second half against Florida State. Not me. State has won by ten, lost by three and lost by 15 in the past three years of this series. (And last year’s beat was a tough one). But in Starkvegas things have been even more interesting: three of the last four have covered this number, including an outright win. So what happens on Saturday? The Bulldogs cover again and the dogs are barking all day long in Starkvegas.

PennSt @ Illini OVER 48 LOSE
Let’s just analyze what’s happened so far this season, the Illini have given up 28 to Toledo and 34 to Kansas. Meanwhile Penn State has got a solid offense that has put up 38 on West Virginia and 63 last week on Delaware. So why in the world would you think Penn State is scoring any less than 35 in this game? Meanwhile Illinois has a decent offense and is at home, meaning they go for 20+. The result, this game soars well over 48, the over’s the play.

KState -4.5 @ Mizzu LOSE
Missouri, sad to say, is not a good football team. Kansas State, I believe, is a good football team. Sometimes it’s just this simple. Plus, last year Kansas State won by 23 in Manhattan. Are you really telling me the outcome is going to change that much this year? Give me the Wildcats for the win by seven or more on the road at Mizzou.

SCarolina +28 @ GA WIN
This is a monster line for a rivalry game. And I feel like I’ve said that for several years in a row now. And lost every year by taking the Gamecocks. Georgia has won by 29, 27, and 41 in the past three years. This year the Gamecocks come ready to play. And lose by 24! Meanwhile we cover.

ULM @ A&M -36.5 WIN
This is my, “We just got our ass kicked so now we are going to kick the ass of a bad team next week to try and hope our fans forget about us getting our ass kicked last week,” special. Legit this is the entire analysis. It’s science. A&M by 50.

Tenn @Florida +7.5 WIN
I have lost my bet on the Tennessee-Florida game, conservatively, for 643 consecutive years. It doesn’t matter what I pick, I’m wrong. Every year for 643 consecutive years. (CNN is going to fact check this article and point out this number of gambling losses is impossible because Columbus hadn’t discovered America yet so the teams haven’t played 643 times.) But they’re wrong. I’m confident Tennessee lost to Florida in 1380 too. (That 1380 Florida defense was STOUT.) Because Tennessee always loses to Florida. Death, taxes, and Tennessee losing to Florida. Even when Florida is awful. Even when Florida only scores ten points, it’s truly uncanny how often Tennessee has managed to lose this game. So when you tell me that Tennessee is the biggest favorite over Florida in my life and that this game is being played at Florida, I just think I must be taking crazy pills. You want me to bet on Tennessee as over a touchdown favorite? I just can’t do it. The Gators cover. And Tennessee will probably miss a field goal on the final play to lose the game. I’ve just seen it happen too many times. And, yes, this is true even though Florida is awful this year.
The Gators +7.5 is the play.

Vandy @ UNLV UNDER 56.5 LOSE
I’m not an expert on football scheduling. But if you’re trying to make a bowl game, why would you make your team go to Wake Forest and UNLV? Shouldn’t you pay two schools to come to Vandy and try to get four wins out of conference? That way you’d just need to go 2-6 in conference and you make a bowl game. Anyway, that’s not happening. And the Commodores are headed out to Sin City where I think defenses control the day. Give me the under, which is a bit like sticking on 16, but the next card is up is a face card and the dealer is busting

Wyoming +28.5 @ Texas WIN
The Longhorns are still drunk from their biggest win since the Rose Bowl against USC. And now you’re telling me they have to turn around and get ready for a 2-0 Wyoming team that has already beaten Texas Tech and has absolutely nothing to lose in the definition of a trap game for Texas? Come on, Longhorn fans, is there anything more Texas than beating Alabama and then losing to Wyoming the next week? I don’t think that happens, but I do think the Longhorns start slow and the Cowboys cover with ease.

Colorado State +22.5 @ Colorado WIN
I know, I know. I’m betting against Colorado again. After Deion and company made me look like an idiot by taking Nebraska to cover last week on Big Noon.
But the market is just too inflated in what is an under the radar major rivalry game. Sure, these two teams haven’t played since 2019, but the Rams have the inexplicable second week of the season bye week so they have been plotting for this game for two weeks now. Plus, come on, you’ve got two huge wins over TCU and Nebraska and on the horizon you’ve got games against Oregon and USC. And in the meantime, you plop a Colorado State team right in the middle here? It’s a trap! I’m not saying Colorado will lose — the Rams already lost by 26 to Washington State — but I do think they struggle to cover. Give me Colorado State plus all the points here.
 
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This is not as good of a pod w/o with Stanford Steve. I have a hard time listening to it. I skip over the group discussion.

Bear Season: 4-6
Best Bet:1-1
Sidekick best bet: 0-2 season


WEEK #3
Iowa State @ Ohio +3 WIN He likes Rourke and Ohio defense and a tough spot for Iowa.
Syracuse @ Purdue +2.5 LOSE He likes Schrader but thinks Purdue at home with Card is the side. Focused on the strength of their schedules
ULM @ A&M -36 WIN He thinks it is very possible that ULM gets 0 and A&M "scores at will." He said "this has 49-0 all over it."

Best Bet: PennState vs Illini +15 LOSE Believes its a bad spot for PSU. PSU has history of close 1st conference road games last 3 years (Purdue,Wisky,Hoosiers)

Sidekick:
ColState +13.5 1H WIN
 
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bones said:
This is not as good of a pod w/o with Stanford Steve. I have a hard time listening to it. I skip over the group discussion.

Bear Season: 4-6
Best Bet:1-1
Sidekick best bet: 0-2 season


WEEK #3
Iowa State @ Ohio +3 He likes Rourke and Ohio defense and a tough spot for Iowa.
Syracuse @ Purdue +2.5 He likes Schrader but thinks Purdue at home with Card is the side. Focused on the strength of their schedules
ULM @ A&M -36 He thinks it is very possible that ULM gets 0 and A&M "scores at will." He said "this has 49-0 all over it."

Best Bet: PennState vs Illini +15 Believes its a bad spot for PSU. PSU has history of close 1st conference road games last 3 years (Purdue,Wisky,Hoosiers)

Sidekick:
ColState +13.5 1H
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I see this Schwartz guy and just see Frank Caliendo with a goatee. I'm sure he's a nice guy but I honestly don't think he adds anything of value to the show.

The group chat is bad. I don't know or care who these guys are. I was hoping Bear's pulp could have got some more respected handicappers than these guys who I can find 20 of on YouTube.
 
CPA-hole said:
I see this Schwartz guy and just see Frank Caliendo with a goatee. I'm sure he's a nice guy but I honestly don't think he adds anything of value to the show.

The group chat is bad. I don't know or care who these guys are. I was hoping Bear's pulp could have got some more respected handicappers than these guys who I can find 20 of on YouTube.
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I only listen as a "service" to the thread. Otherwise I would quit
 
My selections:
Week #2: 6-5
Season: 16-13

LSU -9.5 -110 3 Units WIN
Florida ML +195 1 Unit WIN
I have LSU -3 in the second leg of a teaser with the Eagles from last night WIN
Duke -17 -110 1 Unit WIN
PSU/Illini OVER 48 -110 1 Unit LOSE
PSU/Illini 1H under 23.5 LIVE 1 Unit WIN
OVER 23.5 2H Kst/Mizzu -120 1 Unit WIN
LSU TT OVER 14.5 2H -122 1Unit WIN
BYU +8 vs Razorbacks -110 1Unit WIN
UNDER 23.5 1H SDState @ OreState LIVE -130 1 Unit WIN
FAU +26 @ Clemson -110 1 Unit LOSE
Kansas -28 @ Nevada -110 1 Unit LOSE
Gators TT OVER 10.5 2H -115 1 Unit LOSE

(also won a A&M -21 1H and looks like a Tulane -3 2H unposted and will not go into record)
 
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bones said:
www.bettheboardpodcast.com

College Football Week 3 Picks and Predictions - Bet The Board Podcast

Todd Fuhrman, Payne, and Brad Powers deep-dive College Football Week 3 and deliver Key Metrics and Matchups, along with Picks and Predictions
www.bettheboardpodcast.com www.bettheboardpodcast.com

KSt vs Mizzu: KState is 33-18-1 ATS since Kleinman head coach. Powers has upgraded KState a couple of points and downgraded Mizzu a couple of points after 2 weeks. Payne wonders why Brady Cook for Mizzu is not in game and passing more. He breaks down pass vs run plays and gives numbers illustrating his point. He also finds that KState pass defense can and shud be tested. He does think they have good players but last game they left receivers open and Mizzu must try to pass b/c they probably cannot run effectively agst KState front. Payne had some situational factors: This game is a sellout and KState has to travel by bus due to airport construction. Powers think game shud be closer to -6. He does say: “Handicapping 101 says ‘spot Mizzu’ but I do not see how I will get to window for Mizzu.”

LSU vs MissState: 117th meeting btw these 2 teams. MissState is a team that loses big recently when they step up in class of opponent and looked bad last week (AZ). Powers have downgraded LSU but not much since FlaState loss. He noted that LSU played FlaState evenly first 40 minutes and did not score in red zone twice and FSU had some short field TDs. Payne thinks LSU has to be attacked in the air, but Will Rogers is not being utilized in the passing game. Payne does not have confidence that Rogers and Messy will do it here. He said that you cannot throw short vs LSU and he had stats : "In LSU vs FSU, FSU threw 8 times at or behind the line for 15 yards and Jordan Travis had his only pick – LSU corners are undersized but quick." MisstState’s receivers are short and do not match up well here. 27% of Messy’s runs were “stuffed” agst AZ. Payne concludes: “I am not sure MissState has the right scheme or personnel to consistently threaten LSU.” Powers says Kelly is “good in these spots and beats the teams he is supposed to” and he did so at Notre Dame.

Minnesota vs UNC:
UNC has not had consecutive 3-0 starts since 96-97 and have been 3-0 only twice from ‘98 to 2018. Gophers have rarely played Top 25 teams on the road and have not been a good. Powers thinks Minny has a good new runner, Taylor got 150 last week but he does not like Minny QB Minny ranks 104 in the pass offense while the Minny pass blocking is the 3rd best in the country – QB has time but he misses receivers. He has hard time seeing Minny “keeping up with UNC.” Payne says on the surface UNC defense is improved and Minny’s offensive line has not looked good in the run game and their push. He says the game may come down to UNC D line vs Minny O line and Appy State found success in the trenches – implies that Minny O line may be able to do so. This is going to be a game of competing styles and Minny has to run bc they cannot pass. “If Minny cannot run the ball as efficiently as needed and Drake Maye builds a lead it’s over.” Payne speculates that UNC may actually say “fuck the NCAA and play Tez Walker.” Just speculation but some rumors.

South Carolina vs Georgia:
Powers has downgraded GA a little bit – looks like they’re sleepwalking and the O line has looked bad (Ball State). Last year GA D dominated SCarolina. Bottom line they do not think much of SCarolina. Payne did say “This is the kinda game that I hate, I just hope the line does not get to 28.5” ( I took it to mean he’d then consider taking SCarolina). He also noted that Shane Beamer used to be on Kirby Short’s staff. They do not think SCarolina can run the ball at all. Payne did think Rattler “has looked fantastic” but has no time to throw and SCarolina cannot drive the ball effectively or with the success. Payne concluded “I do not want to step in front of GA here.”

Tenny vs Fla:
Gators have not lost at home vs Tenny since 2003. Tenny has never been a TD favorite at Fla – most was “3.” Napier has yet to win a rivalry game. This is important game for Napier and team’s recruiting. Fla has been a home underdog 4 times since 2018 and is 4-0 agst the spread, winning 3 outright. Powers thinks Tenny has been erratic, including QB Milton – Tenny’s yds per pass attempt is 3.5 yds less than last year and with few explosives agst VA and Austin Peay. Milton still has not thrown an interception at Tenny. Payne says game will be determined by Gator’s ability to slow down Tenny offense. Tenny offense has been sluggish and its been hard to replace NFL caliber players from last year. The 3 top rated pass catchers for Tenny so far have been running backs. Powers says Gator D line “looks a little fat” and out of shape. Milton’s running not been good. Payne: “I do not see Gator’s offense doing a ton here, we all believe Tenny D is trending in right direction…up to Gator D to keep this game in range…tough to win in Swamp at night.”

ColoSt vs Colo:
Both Fox and ESPN gameday shows will be here. Powers has significant upgrade of Colorado since first game, up 22 points since end of last season. “I don’t want to continue to take positions against Colorado until I get a handle on them and there are massive deficiencies, they are getting dominated at the line of scrimmage.” “My numbers say bet Colorado State, but would not go to window until late in the week if I wanted to bet ColState.” “Colorado State O line has not looked good either.” Long/short Powers wants to fade Colorado but not this week. He said “wink wink wait until next week” (Oregon). Payne notes ColState is off a bye. ColState D could be torched by Colorado slot receivers…Wazzu receivers streaked on ColState. Payne: “My line does not get Colorado to 23 point favorite, but as Brad intimated we are bidding our time here.”

They discussed Texas vs Bama and their conclusions were Texas is legit, defense was SEC caliber, Bama is down and probably will not reach their season win total.

Best Bet is 2-0 and this week it is LSU -9.5 Besides what is said above they think there is a big coaching mismatch, Messy cannot play bully ball agst LSU and will not have success in the air.
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I like Fuhrman alot. He was just on The Next Round and really likes Ga. Tech to play Ole Miss within a TD. (Currently at 18.)
 
Added my picks. I don't care for the slate this week so this will be it for me unless I find another teaser or two. Bought out of the BC/FSU under. The outer edge of the hurricane may hit Boston or it may not
Florida +6x
W Virginia +2x
Teaser Florida/W Virginia
Teaser Georgia/Okla State
 
Really like gators., I do not think vols run game will be pushing around those massive defensive tackles Florida can bring in one after another! Assuming vols struggle to stay ahead of the sticks it gonna ask Milton to look a lot more like Hendon Hooker than I think he capable of! I never been a big Mertz fan but think he looks better throwing the ball than Milton does in a offense that is about as paint by numbers qb friendly it gets!! Not to mention this game feels massive for the Gators coach and the fact vols ain’t won here in 100 years or whatever. Seems pretty much a given ya rock w the home dog or stay away.

Lean wvu just cause I think pitt is trash (see cincy ml last week!). My concern would be the only thing I generally trust Narduzzi teams to do well is defend the run and they got embarrassed in that regard by cincy last week. Im not real confident wvu can throw if pitt makes it a point to stop the wvu qb from running? Against a fcs team last week he hit big plays but only 10 of 18, i used to say the way to beat pitt’s better d’s was to attack them over the top but I dunno if that still holds true seeing how cincy never had the need and their other game was a cream puff. That line has really took off hasn’t it? Thought I saw wvu was the dog at beginning the week and they inching close to -3 now? That quite the difference of opinion. I’m just not sure here other than I suspect this will be a incredibly ugly game! I don’t think pitt will have a ton of success on the ground, after seeing Jerkovic go 10 of 32 and really did never to nothing until the 4th when cincy started to look like most Satterfiekd teams where the offense went stale and he had no answer so pitt got chance after chance to get back in the game. I’d bet the under except this the kind of game that both offenses will play to about a 10-7 score but we will get special teams scores, pick 6s, safety or 2 maybe, basically any kind of goofy shit way points can be had will be what puts this game over somehow! You will be ripping up your under ticket looking at the box scoring thinking how the hell I lose this bet!!
 
lb49ers said:
Cowherd's Blazing (or Ice Cold) 5

Chi +2x 27-23
NYG -4x 28-20
Den -3x 27-20
NE +3 28-27
Car +3 26-24
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That’s a gross looking card, I don’t particularly like nfl all that much, and since most these games or covers come down to a few redic plays/calls, or in my case last week a retarded meat head former player coach who been hit in head so many times he lost his ability to do very basic match!! Or maybe Vrabel goal was just to cover? I sure wish someone would ask him if he dumber than a 1st grader or he was told to kick a fg on 4th and 6 from the 10 yard line down 4 w 2 min to play?!?!!? I’d love to hear that answer, in my head he sounds like Rocky trying to explain it!!!

Back to this card, maybe he wins, fuck if I know but there isn’t a chance in hell I would bet my money on those 5 plays! Maybe the giants but even after getting their shit pushed in I can’t imagine perception of them is any worse than Arizona.

Panthers seriously? Unless there a hurricane or something going on I don’t see that shit, Carr and co will figure out how to get the ball into the end zone sooner or later and panthers will still be a team w a tiny rookie qb and no weapons!
 
2daBank said:
Really like gators., I do not think vols run game will be pushing around those massive defensive tackles Florida can bring in one after another! Assuming vols struggle to stay ahead of the sticks it gonna ask Milton to look a lot more like Hendon Hooker than I think he capable of! I never been a big Mertz fan but think he looks better throwing the ball than Milton does in a offense that is about as paint by numbers qb friendly it gets!! Not to mention this game feels massive for the Gators coach and the fact vols ain’t won here in 100 years or whatever. Seems pretty much a given ya rock w the home dog or stay away.

Lean wvu just cause I think pitt is trash (see cincy ml last week!). My concern would be the only thing I generally trust Narduzzi teams to do well is defend the run and they got embarrassed in that regard by cincy last week. Im not real confident wvu can throw if pitt makes it a point to stop the wvu qb from running? Against a fcs team last week he hit big plays but only 10 of 18, i used to say the way to beat pitt’s better d’s was to attack them over the top but I dunno if that still holds true seeing how cincy never had the need and their other game was a cream puff. That line has really took off hasn’t it? Thought I saw wvu was the dog at beginning the week and they inching close to -3 now? That quite the difference of opinion. I’m just not sure here other than I suspect this will be a incredibly ugly game! I don’t think pitt will have a ton of success on the ground, after seeing Jerkovic go 10 of 32 and really did never to nothing until the 4th when cincy started to look like most Satterfiekd teams where the offense went stale and he had no answer so pitt got chance after chance to get back in the game. I’d bet the under except this the kind of game that both offenses will play to about a 10-7 score but we will get special teams scores, pick 6s, safety or 2 maybe, basically any kind of goofy shit way points can be had will be what puts this game over somehow! You will be ripping up your under ticket looking at the box scoring thinking how the hell I lose this bet!!
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I was considering Pitt last week till I read your assessment of the Panthers. You've been right on the money on Pitt the last few years.

I like W Virginia a little more than most bettors and I especially like their D at home and at night. They added a real stud on the D-Line from Kentucky. Maybe they'll be burning couches in Morgantown Saturday night
 
Added Stanford Steve's picks from the Reece Davis podcast. Whatever picks he makes on Gameday tomorrow will be included in these picks:
Florida +6x Best Bet
Colorado vs Colorado State Over 63
Wyoming+30 vs Texas
West Virginia-2.5 vs Pittsburgh
Minnesota+7.5 vs North Carolina
Illinois+15 vs Penn State
 
TahoeLegend said:
I was considering Pitt last week till I read your assessment of the Panthers. You've been right on the money on Pitt the last few years.

I like W Virginia a little more than most bettors and I especially like their D at home and at night. They added a real stud on the D-Line from Kentucky. Maybe they'll be burning couches in Morgantown Saturday night
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Appears lot of money likes them this week judging by the line move, I’ve tried being a fan of wvu a few times since this coach took over but other than the occasional spot (mostly cause the travel rest the big12 has to play here) they been a massive disappointment!!

I did smash one the easiest props when they played psu w wvu qb greene rush yards, they really fucked that number up at 23 or some shit!! This week he 45.5, I’d say that is probably still short if wvu gonna move the ball but I gotta assume despite the shit show Nardizzi has made this program he still watches film? I guess? Id think he gets his d playing very aggressive and very downhill here, I don’t think they knew what to expect out of cincy offense, quite honestly I was little surprised they attacked almost exclusively w the run. It shouldn’t be any secret they have to stop the wvu run gm and most importantly greene from running around. That makes me a little hesitant to play his rush yards here. He hit some huge chunk plays last week and id think that would be wvu best path to points here cause I don’t think pitt will allow him to drive the field w his legs. I was looking for a longest reception prop but best I could find was wvu longest td -135, that could be worth a shot. I do think 1 of 2 things will happen, either greene hits his rush yards or pitt plays the d they should, leaves their corners on a island and prob get hit with at least 1-2 big plays.

Other than turnovers and field position that really the only path to offense I see. I suppose that somewhat a endorsement for wvu cause at least I see them having a either or situation to get some offense. I pretty much agree with you it very tough to see a path to success for pitt offense, I don’t think Jerkovic been the same guy since he hurt his arm pretty bad a few years back at bc, far as I can tell the zip has never returned and basically the only reason he still has a starting job is cause no qb with any talent will ever come play for pitt while Nardizzi having his way, I know I said it before cincy game but why in gods name you would wreck the momentum you got running a modern offense with Pickett and go back to this shit show style is beyond me? Then be upset at Lincoln Riley like it was his fault Addison got out of there fast as possible! He was transferring somewhere that would showcase his talent whether a coach tampered or not!

Even w all that said now the line looks like it creeping up to wvu-3? I have no interest laying that even if I think they prob win, you did a good job getting them as dogs, wouldn’t shock me if the points end up mattering for one side or the other. Gl
 
Stanford Steve's picks on Gameday so far
W Virginia +2x
Georgia Southern +20 v Wisconsin (I'm surprised at this one. Davis Brin didn't set the world on fire at Tulsa, but maybe Ga southern has something going)
 
TahoeLegend said:
Stanford Steve's picks on Gameday so far
W Virginia +2x
Georgia Southern +20 v Wisconsin (I'm surprised at this one. Davis Brin didn't set the world on fire at Tulsa, but maybe Ga southern has something going)
Click to expand...

Ok now hold the Fuxk up, I like Steve and all but how the fuck he gonna pick wvu today (since he don’t have a pod im aware of) and say wvu+2?? I know that number went bye bye way early in the week. He just gets to use the best number thru the week he sees fit? And they wonder why I don’t watch! Lol
 
I'm too old I guess, but the Big Noon Kickoff on FOX is more obnoxious than Gameday....cannot watch either really. Going with Gameday with sound off
 
bones said:
I'm too old I guess, but the Big Noon Kickoff on FOX is more obnoxious than Gameday....cannot watch either really. Going with Gameday with sound off
Click to expand...

Im glad I spend most my morning across river at casino or In parking lot! lol
 
Whoever these guys on xm college sports station are at the very Least not annoying me and actually just talking bout games. I think the minute I saw one those sad sap special interest stories on game day I was mostly done. They prob had those from beginning cause I can’t remember watching very much! When it 1st comes on my cue to head across the river!
 
2daBank said:
Ok now hold the Fuxk up, I like Steve and all but how the fuck he gonna pick wvu today (since he don’t have a pod im aware of) and say wvu+2?? I know that number went bye bye way early in the week. He just gets to use the best number thru the week he sees fit? And they wonder why I don’t watch! Lol
Click to expand...

No, he picked that one Monday on Daily wager and all the guys on the Reece Davis podcast used that number
 
Prop of the Day! I don't bet props, but if I did I'd love this one--Spencer Rattler rushing yards o/u 4.5 yards. I'd be under on that one for sure
 
Last edited:
TahoeLegend said:
Prop of the Day! I don't bet props, but if I did I'd love this one--Spencer Rattler rushing yards o/u 4.5 yards. I'd be under on that one for sure
Click to expand...

I don’t play many unders in props. Guess I put myself thru enough torture plsying ncaa totals more under than overs I need a square release! Lol, helps out there a bunch of choices so if I don’t like a number I can just move on to another game. I kinda like the under rush yards for either one of vols rbs but im pretty invested in gators so not sure I’ll play them. Rattler def makes sense, he doesn’t really run much at all anyways does he? Combine that with the fact he probably gets sacked 6-7-8x after watching the pressure unc was getting! I’d say it a pretty good bet he be minus rush yards unless everyone falls down and ge goes for 60+ on 1 run! Then maybe he would have 5 or so after the sack number taken off!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I don’t play many unders in props. Guess I put myself thru enough torture plsying ncaa totals more under than overs I need a square release! Lol, helps out there a bunch of choices so if I don’t like a number I can just move on to another game. I kinda like the under rush yards for either one of vols rbs but im pretty invested in gators so not sure I’ll play them. Rattler def makes sense, he doesn’t really run much at all anyways does he? Combine that with the fact he probably gets sacked 6-7-8x after watching the pressure unc was getting! I’d say it a pretty good bet he be minus rush yards unless everyone falls down and ge goes for 60+ on 1 run! Then maybe he would have 5 or so after the sack number taken off!! Lol
Click to expand...
Minus yards for sure!
 
2daBank said:
I don’t play many unders in props. Guess I put myself thru enough torture plsying ncaa totals more under than overs I need a square release! Lol, helps out there a bunch of choices so if I don’t like a number I can just move on to another game. I kinda like the under rush yards for either one of vols rbs but im pretty invested in gators so not sure I’ll play them. Rattler def makes sense, he doesn’t really run much at all anyways does he? Combine that with the fact he probably gets sacked 6-7-8x after watching the pressure unc was getting! I’d say it a pretty good bet he be minus rush yards unless everyone falls down and ge goes for 60+ on 1 run! Then maybe he would have 5 or so after the sack number taken off!! Lol
Click to expand...
What I do, as if it matters, is play over props the first 4 weeks of the season or so before the prop lines tighten up and we get into conference play where teams know the individual players more and defend them better, then I look at betting mostly unders.
 
He Hate Me said:
What I do, as if it matters, is play over props the first 4 weeks of the season or so before the prop lines tighten up and we get into conference play where teams know the individual players more and defend them better, then I look at betting mostly unders.
Click to expand...

Makes sense. I don’t mind them tightening up the numbers. It is def sweet some the ones we get early on that are just stupid off, wvu qb only being 23 rush week 1 was hilarious!! These ones we cash in the 1st qrtr are nice! At same time I have a few where I’m confident in a position doing well but totally whiff on which player gets the snaps!

Once we all have a pretty good idea who playing, what the schemes are looking like, etc etc , then it just becomes about matchups, the number will usually be set based more off what a player been doing than a exploitable matchup where I expect him to have a much bigger day than typical.

One day maybe I’ll play a few more unders but long as i have enough choices (and we usually get way more props once things been established and it not a bunch of expected blowouts) I’ll prob keep cherry picking matchup based overs more than play unders even if I think there value. Lol
 
BYU +8 vs Razorbacks. Basically a tail of Br@ssnux write up....but I mentioned in what we learn? thread after last week that I watched a lot of the KentState arkky game and Arky looked awful on Offens...Brass confirms my thoughts. So a tail of Brass with confirmation bias
 
bones said:
BYU +8 vs Razorbacks. Basically a tail of Br@ssnux write up....but I mentioned in what we learn? thread after last week that I watched a lot of the KentState arkky game and Arky looked awful on Offens...Brass confirms my thoughts. So a tail of Brass with confirmation bias
Click to expand...
Arky a huge disappointment so far in my book.
 
Having a good day and adding these
FAU +26 @ Clemson -110 1 Unit
Kansas -28 @ Nevada -110 1 Unit
 
bones said:
This is not as good of a pod w/o with Stanford Steve. I have a hard time listening to it. I skip over the group discussion.

Bear Season: 4-6
Best Bet:1-1
Sidekick best bet: 0-2 season


WEEK #3
Iowa State @ Ohio +3 WIN He likes Rourke and Ohio defense and a tough spot for Iowa.
Syracuse @ Purdue +2.5 LOSE He likes Schrader but thinks Purdue at home with Card is the side. Focused on the strength of their schedules
ULM @ A&M -36 WIN He thinks it is very possible that ULM gets 0 and A&M "scores at will." He said "this has 49-0 all over it."

Best Bet: PennState vs Illini +15 LOSE Believes its a bad spot for PSU. PSU has history of close 1st conference road games last 3 years (Purdue,Wisky,Hoosiers)

Sidekick:
ColState +13.5 1H WIN
Click to expand...
Week #3 - Bear goes 2-2, losing his best bet; Sidekick wins his Best Bet taking Colorado State 1H

Bear Season: 6-8
Best Bet:1-2
Sidekick best bet: 1-2 season
 
bones said:
www.outkick.com

Clay Travis' Gambling Picks For College Football Week 3: Tennessee-Florida, Colorado-Colorado State & More

Last week was a mess.
www.outkick.com www.outkick.com

Last week was a mess. We went 5-9 running our yearly record to 17-15.

VA @ MD OVER 49.5 WIN
In a battle of two schools that should still be in the ACC, Maryland, the Big Ten school that I always forget is in the Big Ten, is going to win. But the over will cash with ease because Virginia is 0-2 and can’t stop anyone. I could make this more complicated than it needs to be, but I’d rather go ahead and lock all of you in with a win on Friday night to start our weekend on a winning foot.

LSU @ Messy +10 LOSE
I get it, LSU scored a billion points last week on Grambling and all of a sudden we’re supposed to forget the entire second half against Florida State. Not me. State has won by ten, lost by three and lost by 15 in the past three years of this series. (And last year’s beat was a tough one). But in Starkvegas things have been even more interesting: three of the last four have covered this number, including an outright win. So what happens on Saturday? The Bulldogs cover again and the dogs are barking all day long in Starkvegas.

PennSt @ Illini OVER 48 LOSE
Let’s just analyze what’s happened so far this season, the Illini have given up 28 to Toledo and 34 to Kansas. Meanwhile Penn State has got a solid offense that has put up 38 on West Virginia and 63 last week on Delaware. So why in the world would you think Penn State is scoring any less than 35 in this game? Meanwhile Illinois has a decent offense and is at home, meaning they go for 20+. The result, this game soars well over 48, the over’s the play.

KState -4.5 @ Mizzu LOSE
Missouri, sad to say, is not a good football team. Kansas State, I believe, is a good football team. Sometimes it’s just this simple. Plus, last year Kansas State won by 23 in Manhattan. Are you really telling me the outcome is going to change that much this year? Give me the Wildcats for the win by seven or more on the road at Mizzou.

SCarolina +28 @ GA WIN
This is a monster line for a rivalry game. And I feel like I’ve said that for several years in a row now. And lost every year by taking the Gamecocks. Georgia has won by 29, 27, and 41 in the past three years. This year the Gamecocks come ready to play. And lose by 24! Meanwhile we cover.

ULM @ A&M -36.5 WIN
This is my, “We just got our ass kicked so now we are going to kick the ass of a bad team next week to try and hope our fans forget about us getting our ass kicked last week,” special. Legit this is the entire analysis. It’s science. A&M by 50.

Tenn @Florida +7.5 WIN
I have lost my bet on the Tennessee-Florida game, conservatively, for 643 consecutive years. It doesn’t matter what I pick, I’m wrong. Every year for 643 consecutive years. (CNN is going to fact check this article and point out this number of gambling losses is impossible because Columbus hadn’t discovered America yet so the teams haven’t played 643 times.) But they’re wrong. I’m confident Tennessee lost to Florida in 1380 too. (That 1380 Florida defense was STOUT.) Because Tennessee always loses to Florida. Death, taxes, and Tennessee losing to Florida. Even when Florida is awful. Even when Florida only scores ten points, it’s truly uncanny how often Tennessee has managed to lose this game. So when you tell me that Tennessee is the biggest favorite over Florida in my life and that this game is being played at Florida, I just think I must be taking crazy pills. You want me to bet on Tennessee as over a touchdown favorite? I just can’t do it. The Gators cover. And Tennessee will probably miss a field goal on the final play to lose the game. I’ve just seen it happen too many times. And, yes, this is true even though Florida is awful this year.
The Gators +7.5 is the play.

Vandy @ UNLV UNDER 56.5 LOSE
I’m not an expert on football scheduling. But if you’re trying to make a bowl game, why would you make your team go to Wake Forest and UNLV? Shouldn’t you pay two schools to come to Vandy and try to get four wins out of conference? That way you’d just need to go 2-6 in conference and you make a bowl game. Anyway, that’s not happening. And the Commodores are headed out to Sin City where I think defenses control the day. Give me the under, which is a bit like sticking on 16, but the next card is up is a face card and the dealer is busting

Wyoming +28.5 @ Texas WIN
The Longhorns are still drunk from their biggest win since the Rose Bowl against USC. And now you’re telling me they have to turn around and get ready for a 2-0 Wyoming team that has already beaten Texas Tech and has absolutely nothing to lose in the definition of a trap game for Texas? Come on, Longhorn fans, is there anything more Texas than beating Alabama and then losing to Wyoming the next week? I don’t think that happens, but I do think the Longhorns start slow and the Cowboys cover with ease.

Colorado State +22.5 @ Colorado WIN
I know, I know. I’m betting against Colorado again. After Deion and company made me look like an idiot by taking Nebraska to cover last week on Big Noon.
But the market is just too inflated in what is an under the radar major rivalry game. Sure, these two teams haven’t played since 2019, but the Rams have the inexplicable second week of the season bye week so they have been plotting for this game for two weeks now. Plus, come on, you’ve got two huge wins over TCU and Nebraska and on the horizon you’ve got games against Oregon and USC. And in the meantime, you plop a Colorado State team right in the middle here? It’s a trap! I’m not saying Colorado will lose — the Rams already lost by 26 to Washington State — but I do think they struggle to cover. Give me Colorado State plus all the points here.
Click to expand...
WEEK #3: 6-4 (including a Colorado State selection)
SEASON: 23-19
 
bones said:
www.bettheboardpodcast.com

College Football Week 3 Picks and Predictions - Bet The Board Podcast

Todd Fuhrman, Payne, and Brad Powers deep-dive College Football Week 3 and deliver Key Metrics and Matchups, along with Picks and Predictions
www.bettheboardpodcast.com www.bettheboardpodcast.com

KSt vs Mizzu: KState is 33-18-1 ATS since Kleinman head coach. Powers has upgraded KState a couple of points and downgraded Mizzu a couple of points after 2 weeks. Payne wonders why Brady Cook for Mizzu is not in game and passing more. He breaks down pass vs run plays and gives numbers illustrating his point. He also finds that KState pass defense can and shud be tested. He does think they have good players but last game they left receivers open and Mizzu must try to pass b/c they probably cannot run effectively agst KState front. Payne had some situational factors: This game is a sellout and KState has to travel by bus due to airport construction. Powers think game shud be closer to -6. He does say: “Handicapping 101 says ‘spot Mizzu’ but I do not see how I will get to window for Mizzu.”

LSU vs MissState: 117th meeting btw these 2 teams. MissState is a team that loses big recently when they step up in class of opponent and looked bad last week (AZ). Powers have downgraded LSU but not much since FlaState loss. He noted that LSU played FlaState evenly first 40 minutes and did not score in red zone twice and FSU had some short field TDs. Payne thinks LSU has to be attacked in the air, but Will Rogers is not being utilized in the passing game. Payne does not have confidence that Rogers and Messy will do it here. He said that you cannot throw short vs LSU and he had stats : "In LSU vs FSU, FSU threw 8 times at or behind the line for 15 yards and Jordan Travis had his only pick – LSU corners are undersized but quick." MisstState’s receivers are short and do not match up well here. 27% of Messy’s runs were “stuffed” agst AZ. Payne concludes: “I am not sure MissState has the right scheme or personnel to consistently threaten LSU.” Powers says Kelly is “good in these spots and beats the teams he is supposed to” and he did so at Notre Dame.

Minnesota vs UNC:
UNC has not had consecutive 3-0 starts since 96-97 and have been 3-0 only twice from ‘98 to 2018. Gophers have rarely played Top 25 teams on the road and have not been a good. Powers thinks Minny has a good new runner, Taylor got 150 last week but he does not like Minny QB Minny ranks 104 in the pass offense while the Minny pass blocking is the 3rd best in the country – QB has time but he misses receivers. He has hard time seeing Minny “keeping up with UNC.” Payne says on the surface UNC defense is improved and Minny’s offensive line has not looked good in the run game and their push. He says the game may come down to UNC D line vs Minny O line and Appy State found success in the trenches – implies that Minny O line may be able to do so. This is going to be a game of competing styles and Minny has to run bc they cannot pass. “If Minny cannot run the ball as efficiently as needed and Drake Maye builds a lead it’s over.” Payne speculates that UNC may actually say “fuck the NCAA and play Tez Walker.” Just speculation but some rumors.

South Carolina vs Georgia:
Powers has downgraded GA a little bit – looks like they’re sleepwalking and the O line has looked bad (Ball State). Last year GA D dominated SCarolina. Bottom line they do not think much of SCarolina. Payne did say “This is the kinda game that I hate, I just hope the line does not get to 28.5” ( I took it to mean he’d then consider taking SCarolina). He also noted that Shane Beamer used to be on Kirby Short’s staff. They do not think SCarolina can run the ball at all. Payne did think Rattler “has looked fantastic” but has no time to throw and SCarolina cannot drive the ball effectively or with the success. Payne concluded “I do not want to step in front of GA here.”

Tenny vs Fla:
Gators have not lost at home vs Tenny since 2003. Tenny has never been a TD favorite at Fla – most was “3.” Napier has yet to win a rivalry game. This is important game for Napier and team’s recruiting. Fla has been a home underdog 4 times since 2018 and is 4-0 agst the spread, winning 3 outright. Powers thinks Tenny has been erratic, including QB Milton – Tenny’s yds per pass attempt is 3.5 yds less than last year and with few explosives agst VA and Austin Peay. Milton still has not thrown an interception at Tenny. Payne says game will be determined by Gator’s ability to slow down Tenny offense. Tenny offense has been sluggish and its been hard to replace NFL caliber players from last year. The 3 top rated pass catchers for Tenny so far have been running backs. Powers says Gator D line “looks a little fat” and out of shape. Milton’s running not been good. Payne: “I do not see Gator’s offense doing a ton here, we all believe Tenny D is trending in right direction…up to Gator D to keep this game in range…tough to win in Swamp at night.”

ColoSt vs Colo:
Both Fox and ESPN gameday shows will be here. Powers has significant upgrade of Colorado since first game, up 22 points since end of last season. “I don’t want to continue to take positions against Colorado until I get a handle on them and there are massive deficiencies, they are getting dominated at the line of scrimmage.” “My numbers say bet Colorado State, but would not go to window until late in the week if I wanted to bet ColState.” “Colorado State O line has not looked good either.” Long/short Powers wants to fade Colorado but not this week. He said “wink wink wait until next week” (Oregon). Payne notes ColState is off a bye. ColState D could be torched by Colorado slot receivers…Wazzu receivers streaked on ColState. Payne: “My line does not get Colorado to 23 point favorite, but as Brad intimated we are bidding our time here.”

They discussed Texas vs Bama and their conclusions were Texas is legit, defense was SEC caliber, Bama is down and probably will not reach their season win total.

Best Bet is 2-0 and this week it is LSU -9.5 Besides what is said above they think there is a big coaching mismatch, Messy cannot play bully ball agst LSU and will not have success in the air.
Click to expand...
Bet The Board is 3-0 on their bet of the week. This week was LSU

Also, if you check out their breakdowns of the games in the last 2 weeks, they have been very spot on in many instances. They are valuable, imo, for keeping you off certain games and for poiting you in right direction for a wager in others
 
bones said:
My selections:
Week #2: 6-5
Season: 16-13

LSU -9.5 -110 3 Units WIN
Florida ML +195 1 Unit WIN
I have LSU -3 in the second leg of a teaser with the Eagles from last night WIN
Duke -17 -110 1 Unit WIN
PSU/Illini OVER 48 -110 1 Unit LOSE
PSU/Illini 1H under 23.5 LIVE 1 Unit WIN
OVER 23.5 2H Kst/Mizzu -120 1 Unit WIN
LSU TT OVER 14.5 2H -122 1Unit WIN
BYU +8 vs Razorbacks -110 1Unit WIN
UNDER 23.5 1H SDState @ OreState LIVE -130 1 Unit WIN
FAU +26 @ Clemson -110 1 Unit LOSE
Kansas -28 @ Nevada -110 1 Unit LOSE
Gators TT OVER 10.5 2H -115 1 Unit LOSE

(also won a A&M -21 1H and looks like a Tulane -3 2H unposted and will not go into record)
Click to expand...
I went 9-4.
Season 25-17
 
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