Dylanphan's 2023 NHL Playoffs
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dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Toronto/Lightning
This matchup has been known for a while now and it's an extremely compelling series, as you consider one of these teams will be golfing before May and both have the lineups to be Cup winners.
I'd have this lined as Toronto -130 as they are prohibitive favorites in my eyes.
I see it as Toronto -145, TB +125 right now, so probably will be no betting this one. Toronto's lineup is deeper, better and more geared for the playoffs, imho. Bringing in RoR was a really key move as he's a difference maker - good on faceoffs, good two way forward and with the firepower this team has, they really don't need another scorer, just a winner. Wala. For years Toronto's shortcoming has been their defense/goaltending, but they've really sured this up this year as the only teams that have allowed FEWER goals than Toronto are Boston, Carolina, Stars and the NYR. When you factor that in to a team boasting the likes of MAtthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares, well that's a pretty strong argument for Toronto advancing here. Toronto's #1 PP unit is very solid, as they are #2 in the league in PP % and their PK is very solid as well ranking tied for 10th.
BUT, in the playoffs, it's really all about goaltending and getting the hot goalie makes all the difference in the world and when you back Tampa Bay, you have arguably the best goalie in the world. Vassy's going to probably play every minute of the playoffs, so every game you have the second best goalie. Tampa is obviously very playoff tested, but have lost so much to attrition over the past few years, they are really a two line team now with 6 other very annoying guys to play against. Cooper is an awesome coach and TB will need to shorten the bench as you'll probably see Kucherov double shifted, plenty of Point and 28-30 mpg for Hedman unless they are able to get nice leads. TB will be a tough out, but I think Toronto gets it done this year. I'm just not confident enough to be laying -145 against a team that's made the finals 3 straight years.
And of course Toronto always seems to fold like bitches under pressure so I wouldn't fault anyone for playing TB at plus odds, I'll just be rooting for the Leafs in this one.
:cheers3:
This matchup has been known for a while now and it's an extremely compelling series, as you consider one of these teams will be golfing before May and both have the lineups to be Cup winners.
I'd have this lined as Toronto -130 as they are prohibitive favorites in my eyes.
I see it as Toronto -145, TB +125 right now, so probably will be no betting this one. Toronto's lineup is deeper, better and more geared for the playoffs, imho. Bringing in RoR was a really key move as he's a difference maker - good on faceoffs, good two way forward and with the firepower this team has, they really don't need another scorer, just a winner. Wala. For years Toronto's shortcoming has been their defense/goaltending, but they've really sured this up this year as the only teams that have allowed FEWER goals than Toronto are Boston, Carolina, Stars and the NYR. When you factor that in to a team boasting the likes of MAtthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares, well that's a pretty strong argument for Toronto advancing here. Toronto's #1 PP unit is very solid, as they are #2 in the league in PP % and their PK is very solid as well ranking tied for 10th.
BUT, in the playoffs, it's really all about goaltending and getting the hot goalie makes all the difference in the world and when you back Tampa Bay, you have arguably the best goalie in the world. Vassy's going to probably play every minute of the playoffs, so every game you have the second best goalie. Tampa is obviously very playoff tested, but have lost so much to attrition over the past few years, they are really a two line team now with 6 other very annoying guys to play against. Cooper is an awesome coach and TB will need to shorten the bench as you'll probably see Kucherov double shifted, plenty of Point and 28-30 mpg for Hedman unless they are able to get nice leads. TB will be a tough out, but I think Toronto gets it done this year. I'm just not confident enough to be laying -145 against a team that's made the finals 3 straight years.
And of course Toronto always seems to fold like bitches under pressure so I wouldn't fault anyone for playing TB at plus odds, I'll just be rooting for the Leafs in this one.
:cheers3:
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
East possibilities as of 4/12:
Rangers -110/Devils -110 or Rangers -125/Canes +105
Bruins -330/Isles +who cares or Bruins -280/Panthers +250
Canes -120/Isles evs or Canes -105/Panthers -115
Devils -130/Isles +110 or Devils -120/Panthers evs
Canes really tried to gear themselves up for the playoffs after a disappointing 2022 getting Burns and Pacioretty to go with that talented team, but just been hit by the injury bug at the wrong time of year and aren't right. Panthers are going to be a sneaky/annoying team to play against this year and if Bob gets hot, could be a nice sleeper. Avoiding the Bruins would obviously be massive.
Will update later this week
Rangers -110/Devils -110 or Rangers -125/Canes +105
Bruins -330/Isles +who cares or Bruins -280/Panthers +250
Canes -120/Isles evs or Canes -105/Panthers -115
Devils -130/Isles +110 or Devils -120/Panthers evs
Canes really tried to gear themselves up for the playoffs after a disappointing 2022 getting Burns and Pacioretty to go with that talented team, but just been hit by the injury bug at the wrong time of year and aren't right. Panthers are going to be a sneaky/annoying team to play against this year and if Bob gets hot, could be a nice sleeper. Avoiding the Bruins would obviously be massive.
Will update later this week
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
I watched alot of the Canes this year and soon as Svech went down, their season flipped. I sure couldn't be playing them now.
Good write-up on Toronto-TB. Tor sure seems like the better team, but it's so hard to trust them.
Enjoy the play-offs and best wishes.
Good write-up on Toronto-TB. Tor sure seems like the better team, but it's so hard to trust them.
Enjoy the play-offs and best wishes.
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Current prices
Toronto -165/TBL +140. TB has some value at +140, but I'm not going to play this one at all. Toronto is better, but under much more pressure. Deeper this series goes, better TB's chances due to goalie advantage.
Rangers ev/Devils -120
I played the Rangers for a unit, as I just think they are better. Devils do match up decently though. In short, there are only two teams in the East I've seen all year that I thought, well, shit, they are just better than the Rangers. Boston and Carolina. Since the trade deadline no one has scored more goals than the Rangers. The Rangers are something like 32-0 this year when they score 4 goals. I don't believe in fact they have allowed 4 goals in their last 20 or so games either. In previous years, Rangers 1 & 2 lines were always second best. This year, I think their 1 line is second best, however, their 2, 3 and 4 lines are almost always going to be the better lines. They don't really play matchups too much so home ice advantage will not come into play in this one. And Karlson's going to win the Norris this year, but Fox has been the best defenseman this year in the NHL. Makar is better, but has been hurt and Hedman hasn't been as dominating as year's past.
Devils have been good all year long. Hughes has made the leap to next level player. Dougie HAmilton has been tremendous this year. But I think that the difference will be a) goaltending and b) depth. These are probably going to be a bunch of one goal games, so honestly, who would you rather be backing in tight games the team that can rely on Panarin, Zibanejad, Kane or Tarasenko? Or Tatar, Palat, Bratt, Mercer? Give me the Rangers in 6.
Hurricanes -200/Isles +170
Played Islanders +170, 1 to make 1.7. This is just too high a line for the Islanders. Look, I hate the Islanders more than any other team than perhaps the Penguins, but this Canes team has lost quite a bit. Islanders roll out 4 solid lines and adding Horvat could be a difference maker for sure. Couple guys on the Islanders really had down years, but they start new at zero in the playoffs. I do think the Canes have a pretty nice advantage on the blue line, but Slavin wasn't as good as the past few years, Burns still solid, but is older and so really Skjei and PEsce been their two best guys - still better than the Islanders dmen though. Goaltending could very well be the difference maker. At +170 I think I'll take the team that fought tooth and nail to get in with more depth and health on offense.
Toronto -165/TBL +140. TB has some value at +140, but I'm not going to play this one at all. Toronto is better, but under much more pressure. Deeper this series goes, better TB's chances due to goalie advantage.
Rangers ev/Devils -120
I played the Rangers for a unit, as I just think they are better. Devils do match up decently though. In short, there are only two teams in the East I've seen all year that I thought, well, shit, they are just better than the Rangers. Boston and Carolina. Since the trade deadline no one has scored more goals than the Rangers. The Rangers are something like 32-0 this year when they score 4 goals. I don't believe in fact they have allowed 4 goals in their last 20 or so games either. In previous years, Rangers 1 & 2 lines were always second best. This year, I think their 1 line is second best, however, their 2, 3 and 4 lines are almost always going to be the better lines. They don't really play matchups too much so home ice advantage will not come into play in this one. And Karlson's going to win the Norris this year, but Fox has been the best defenseman this year in the NHL. Makar is better, but has been hurt and Hedman hasn't been as dominating as year's past.
Devils have been good all year long. Hughes has made the leap to next level player. Dougie HAmilton has been tremendous this year. But I think that the difference will be a) goaltending and b) depth. These are probably going to be a bunch of one goal games, so honestly, who would you rather be backing in tight games the team that can rely on Panarin, Zibanejad, Kane or Tarasenko? Or Tatar, Palat, Bratt, Mercer? Give me the Rangers in 6.
Hurricanes -200/Isles +170
Played Islanders +170, 1 to make 1.7. This is just too high a line for the Islanders. Look, I hate the Islanders more than any other team than perhaps the Penguins, but this Canes team has lost quite a bit. Islanders roll out 4 solid lines and adding Horvat could be a difference maker for sure. Couple guys on the Islanders really had down years, but they start new at zero in the playoffs. I do think the Canes have a pretty nice advantage on the blue line, but Slavin wasn't as good as the past few years, Burns still solid, but is older and so really Skjei and PEsce been their two best guys - still better than the Islanders dmen though. Goaltending could very well be the difference maker. At +170 I think I'll take the team that fought tooth and nail to get in with more depth and health on offense.
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Bruins -350/Panthers +275
A bit heavier favorites than I would have laidwith the B's, but this team has been dominant all year long and lets face it, they should be strong favorites to win the cup.
Bruins have scored the second most goals in the league and have allowed the fewest. They come into the playoffs healthy, and at full health, they boast the deepest and best offensive lines and defensemen in the league. Oh, and they have this year's Vezina trophy winner between the pipes. What's not go love?
Well, laying -350 is not to love in a physical sport where an injury or two can really change the tide. And Florida does have a puncher chance, in particular with a punishing power forward named Thcachuk. They have a great two way forward in Barkov and they have a few physical defensemen that will be tasked with doing their best to hit, hit and hit some more the Bruins forecheckers.
I am not going to bet against the Bruins at full strength against any team, except of course the Rangers, but I'm not too in love with this price either.
But, I like to bet, so I found something I liked.
Bruins to win first game & to win series -130, 1.3 to win 1.0
That gives me the Bruins at a -180 ML for the first game to go with the current -350 series price and well, that's more than a fair bet imho.
:cheers3:
A bit heavier favorites than I would have laidwith the B's, but this team has been dominant all year long and lets face it, they should be strong favorites to win the cup.
Bruins have scored the second most goals in the league and have allowed the fewest. They come into the playoffs healthy, and at full health, they boast the deepest and best offensive lines and defensemen in the league. Oh, and they have this year's Vezina trophy winner between the pipes. What's not go love?
Well, laying -350 is not to love in a physical sport where an injury or two can really change the tide. And Florida does have a puncher chance, in particular with a punishing power forward named Thcachuk. They have a great two way forward in Barkov and they have a few physical defensemen that will be tasked with doing their best to hit, hit and hit some more the Bruins forecheckers.
I am not going to bet against the Bruins at full strength against any team, except of course the Rangers, but I'm not too in love with this price either.
But, I like to bet, so I found something I liked.
Bruins to win first game & to win series -130, 1.3 to win 1.0
That gives me the Bruins at a -180 ML for the first game to go with the current -350 series price and well, that's more than a fair bet imho.
:cheers3:
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dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
West thoughts will be brief and off the cuff, so feel free to correct me if I misremember anything.
Oilers -250/Kings +210
I've watched a lot more Oil this year than Kings, as #97 is must see tv, and Oilers are fairly solid. Eckholm has been a huge boost, think he was +6 in one game recently and +20something since he came over. That backline is really the Achilles heel of the team as they obviously have offense to spare. Still not in love with their goaltending, and with the Kings getting rid of Quick was the right move as he was ungood this year and it's hard to sit your most storied veteran goalie sometimes. I think the Kings are good enough to win this series for sure, so if I were to make a bet it would be the Kings. But, I'm rooting for the Oilers. They played last year in round one and series went 7 games so no reason to lay -250 here imho. Hard pass on this one.
Vegas -165/Jets +140
This has the makings of a grinding, 2-1, 3-2 games where a bad bounce here or there could determine the outcome. Normally I would advise taking the team with plus odds, but for some reason I don't think we've seen the best of Vegas yet, and Vegas is my team to come out of the west. So, I think I'm going to have a play on Vegas here, but not sure what just yet.
Stars -140/Wild +110
This one should be a real good series. Both teams have great top end talent. Both teams have grit, both teams have good to great goaltending. I would lean to the Stars as they seem to have better offensive depth, but Wild's top line can be dominant at times and if they can get some secondary scoring from guys like Hartman, Boldy's been on fire, Gaudreau, etc... they are good enough to advance. Long time blue liners Suter and Klingberg face their former teams should have some nice drama to it as well. Hard pass on this one, too close to call.
Colorado -250/Kraken +200
This line is just completely disrespectful to Seattle. Yeah, I know the Avs are reigning champs, but their captain isn't returning this year, Makar is all kinds of banged up and this isn't the same team. Mackinnon playing out of his mind and Rantennan been great, sure, but Seattle has a 40 goal scorer over there as well, and they roll out line after line that just attacks you. It seems to me they outshoot their opponents pretty consistently. If they get great goaltending, no reason for me to see them not being able to win this series or at least run it deep.
Seattle +200 (0.5 unit to make 1.0) I'll more than likely play them to win the first game as well, and if they lose, roll it into them winning game 2. I think you can make some money this series backing Seattle.
Oilers -250/Kings +210
I've watched a lot more Oil this year than Kings, as #97 is must see tv, and Oilers are fairly solid. Eckholm has been a huge boost, think he was +6 in one game recently and +20something since he came over. That backline is really the Achilles heel of the team as they obviously have offense to spare. Still not in love with their goaltending, and with the Kings getting rid of Quick was the right move as he was ungood this year and it's hard to sit your most storied veteran goalie sometimes. I think the Kings are good enough to win this series for sure, so if I were to make a bet it would be the Kings. But, I'm rooting for the Oilers. They played last year in round one and series went 7 games so no reason to lay -250 here imho. Hard pass on this one.
Vegas -165/Jets +140
This has the makings of a grinding, 2-1, 3-2 games where a bad bounce here or there could determine the outcome. Normally I would advise taking the team with plus odds, but for some reason I don't think we've seen the best of Vegas yet, and Vegas is my team to come out of the west. So, I think I'm going to have a play on Vegas here, but not sure what just yet.
Stars -140/Wild +110
This one should be a real good series. Both teams have great top end talent. Both teams have grit, both teams have good to great goaltending. I would lean to the Stars as they seem to have better offensive depth, but Wild's top line can be dominant at times and if they can get some secondary scoring from guys like Hartman, Boldy's been on fire, Gaudreau, etc... they are good enough to advance. Long time blue liners Suter and Klingberg face their former teams should have some nice drama to it as well. Hard pass on this one, too close to call.
Colorado -250/Kraken +200
This line is just completely disrespectful to Seattle. Yeah, I know the Avs are reigning champs, but their captain isn't returning this year, Makar is all kinds of banged up and this isn't the same team. Mackinnon playing out of his mind and Rantennan been great, sure, but Seattle has a 40 goal scorer over there as well, and they roll out line after line that just attacks you. It seems to me they outshoot their opponents pretty consistently. If they get great goaltending, no reason for me to see them not being able to win this series or at least run it deep.
Seattle +200 (0.5 unit to make 1.0) I'll more than likely play them to win the first game as well, and if they lose, roll it into them winning game 2. I think you can make some money this series backing Seattle.
faceoff
Pretty much a regular
Awesome Pucking Post. Highway 61 revisited.
Kraken surprised me with their speed. I have very little confidence in their goaltending.
kings defense will keep them in the games.
Looks like 1-0, 2-1 games Minny/Stars series.
Knights always play better than I expect. Without Thompson in net, no bet for me..
Kraken surprised me with their speed. I have very little confidence in their goaltending.
kings defense will keep them in the games.
Looks like 1-0, 2-1 games Minny/Stars series.
Knights always play better than I expect. Without Thompson in net, no bet for me..
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
0-2 -1.85
Last night was less than ideal. Stars up 2-1 in the second, can't score a third. Oilers up 2-0 in the first, crap out at 3 goals. Playoff hockey is tough to get goals, I shoulda known better, which was why I passed on the eastern games.
Difference in the B's and Canes victories was really that their pk's were dominant. You aren't offered many chances in the playoffs, so when you get a power play you need to score or at least get some chances and change momentum. Panthers and Isles couldn't do dick. Isles had a pp late in the 3rd, don't think they got a single s.o.g. Panthers had a few pp's, I'm not sure they produced a single quality chance. Panthers actually looked pretty good though. I'd give them a chance of maybe pushing this series to 6, but the Bruins were without their captain which is a pretty big miss. They were shuffling around lines a bit which is tough for cohesion. Isles looked pathetic. Gave up a shit ton of chances, didn't seem to produce enough. Maybe a game or two for Barzal to get his legs under him will help out, but at this point, I'm not chasing them.
Kinda pissed NL scheduled the best two first round series to go against each other, seems stupid to me. I'm not a tv ratings guy, but Rangers and Leafs have got to be 2 of the biggest markets for NHL games, no?
Will have some plays for later on.
Last night was less than ideal. Stars up 2-1 in the second, can't score a third. Oilers up 2-0 in the first, crap out at 3 goals. Playoff hockey is tough to get goals, I shoulda known better, which was why I passed on the eastern games.
Difference in the B's and Canes victories was really that their pk's were dominant. You aren't offered many chances in the playoffs, so when you get a power play you need to score or at least get some chances and change momentum. Panthers and Isles couldn't do dick. Isles had a pp late in the 3rd, don't think they got a single s.o.g. Panthers had a few pp's, I'm not sure they produced a single quality chance. Panthers actually looked pretty good though. I'd give them a chance of maybe pushing this series to 6, but the Bruins were without their captain which is a pretty big miss. They were shuffling around lines a bit which is tough for cohesion. Isles looked pathetic. Gave up a shit ton of chances, didn't seem to produce enough. Maybe a game or two for Barzal to get his legs under him will help out, but at this point, I'm not chasing them.
Kinda pissed NL scheduled the best two first round series to go against each other, seems stupid to me. I'm not a tv ratings guy, but Rangers and Leafs have got to be 2 of the biggest markets for NHL games, no?
Will have some plays for later on.
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
0-3 -2.35
Stephenson fg +1900 0.2 to make 3.8
TOR -1.5 (+210) 1.0 to make 2.1
Shestrkin o29.5 saves -105 1.05 to make 1.00
Mika fg +1000 (0.5 to make 5)
Hughes fg +1100 (0.25 to make 2.75)
Really loving the Rangers tonight. Devils already changing goalies, changing lines, not sure what to do to break up this momentum. Rangers played well in game 1 and great in game 2. Definitely see the DEvils coming out hard and putting lots of shots on goal, but so long as they are not high quality chances, Rangers are going to win again.
There are a few things I hate in sports. International friendlies in soccer, worthless. And daytime playoff hockey is an aberration. You need to give your fans a chance to get fired up for the game if you know what I mean.
Stephenson fg +1900 0.2 to make 3.8
TOR -1.5 (+210) 1.0 to make 2.1
Shestrkin o29.5 saves -105 1.05 to make 1.00
Mika fg +1000 (0.5 to make 5)
Hughes fg +1100 (0.25 to make 2.75)
Really loving the Rangers tonight. Devils already changing goalies, changing lines, not sure what to do to break up this momentum. Rangers played well in game 1 and great in game 2. Definitely see the DEvils coming out hard and putting lots of shots on goal, but so long as they are not high quality chances, Rangers are going to win again.
There are a few things I hate in sports. International friendlies in soccer, worthless. And daytime playoff hockey is an aberration. You need to give your fans a chance to get fired up for the game if you know what I mean.
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Getting crushed here….
1-9 (-1.6)
Tonight I need a MIKACLE.
Mika fg +1000 0.4 to make 4.0
Rangers devils goal in first 9:30 YES -120. 3.6 yo make 3.0
Need an early goal really bad. Lots of early goals in the playoffs so far. Longer this game goes on with a rangers goal more pressure on them. If there is not an early one well I have a feeling this is the last game for the rangers this year.
1-9 (-1.6)
Tonight I need a MIKACLE.
Mika fg +1000 0.4 to make 4.0
Rangers devils goal in first 9:30 YES -120. 3.6 yo make 3.0
Need an early goal really bad. Lots of early goals in the playoffs so far. Longer this game goes on with a rangers goal more pressure on them. If there is not an early one well I have a feeling this is the last game for the rangers this year.
Interesting bet on the first 9:30
Looks like they got it within first 9 mins. Hopefully starts a streak for ya.
Always good info in here, win or lose.
So, this bet still pending I assume.
How do you feel?
I found that cheap series get and now an stuck wondering if I should take FL ML and just lose a small amount.
I saw one article discussing a possible goalie change for the B's?
Oey.
The B's need to quit fucking around and clear the zone when they get the chance. Goalie change should have been done before tonight. If the B's aren't gripping their sticks to tight, they should win. I'm not going big. Close game for sure. Hafta go with the home team. GL
Any one notice that Boston's McAvoy tipped the tying puck in the net with 9 seconds left? Boston played pathetic. I've seen high school teams pass the puck better. Suspect series to say the least. What a shame. IMO
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