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The 'warning bells' statistic concerning KCR's unbeaten run to me is the following:
7, 2, 1, 8, 5, 6, 2, 2
That's their run production inside regulation innings this post season. It's almost all but all or nothing, basically. Here's SF's:
8, 3, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6 (this last one "inflated" somewhat: should be another 3 or 4 but for the rare occurrence of a multi-run walk-off HR)
Much more consistent. Less highs but more importantly less lows. 3's & 4's are regulation scores that win multiple games in the WS (since 2000, 31 WS games have been won by teams managing 3-4 reg. run scores, compared to 15 won by teams managing 5-6 reg. run scores). Where are KC's regulation 3's & 4's? The horseshoe they have up their ass is all but coloured by an offensive hue. They've won multiple games in the playoffs via a mode they were worst at league wide in the regular season: the long ball (as well as 2 notable extra base hits which hit the wall, but didn't have the oompf to go the few feet more needed to clear it). What happens when their freak deep hitting ways dry up? Remember the Cards from last season and their highly flukey (& record setting) productive BA with RISP, and what happened to them when that dried up? Teams simply do not sustain doing things that are exceptionally beyond the[ir established] norm. Keep in mind KC will play SF off their 2 worst overall offensive outings thus far in these playoffs. Because they won those games & made the WS as a result, attention is deflected from the fact that maybe their big hitting ways have actually already come to an end: they didn't manage a hit w/a RISP in those 2 games, nor did they manage any HR's (the pitching they faced in those 2 efforts hardly warranted such a drastic drop off in the form they'd shown over their previous 6 games, especially at home). The last time they had an offensive lull - their 2 reg. innings efforts @LAA - they at least had another game quickly around the corner to reassert/refind their offensive form. Here their suddenly quiet bats have been forced into extended rest.
The issue for KC's offense in the WS is going to be: what saves them if & when the big hits dry up? This isn't to say KC is incapable of winning a tight WS game late without hitting a longball, but how are they going to react when what they're so used to getting from themselves recently suddenly disappears on them, and this happens to happen in the most pressure filled atmosphere they've ever experienced? The Tigers lost the WS to SF after just 1 game was in the books 2 years ago, and the Tigers entered that WS off 5 straight wins: everything had been running their way back then, just as it is now for the Royals. 3 Panda HR's later & their ace mauled, the Tigers were shellshocked & never recovered.
One final note on this point: As well as KC has managed the big hits, they've still "only" totaled 8 HR's in 8 games. STL managed 15 HR's in 9 games, an average of 1.66/game. How difficult will SF find dealing with KC if the their current 1.00 HR/game rate drops away to any significant degree, as expectations of a regression anticipate, given they just managed a comprehensive (on paper, at least) 4-1 series win against a team who hit the longball significantly better than what KC is currently managing to do?
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Big Game James presumably goes against Bumgarner in game 1: Bumgarner is 4-0 on the road in the postseason, while BGJ has looked average at best (his lack of a loss to his name at this point being due to his being the most consistent beneficiary of KC's flukey big hitting ways: he's gotten an average of 8.33 runs support so far - that's more than double KC's rpg production from the regular season, and nearly 2 1/2 times as much RS as all the other KC starters have received. Such statistical deviations simply do not continue unabated). This is another WS that has the potential be over for one team psychologically very early, imo. If KC's big hitting continues unabated then I think it's the toss up the odds suggest: either team wins in 7. Since KC's big hitting holding up is a scenario I don't contemplate (even though Black Swans will continue to exist despite normative expectations), I think SF wins in 6 (or - if KC's bats really hit the wall like STL's did off their own respective high last season - in 5). SF's starters are't good enough across the board this time around for me to possibly think sweep (Pissvy & Vogelsucks are no Cain-Lincecum or even Cain-Zito duo), even if KC does repeat the stage fright of the 2012 Tigers.
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Last thought for this post: KC's beating SF 3-0 in the reg. season @KC (SF's bats managing 3 total runs over those 3 games).
SF's reg. season was a 3 act play:
(1) Their swift start out of the blocks (43-21 SU),
(2) Their mid-season slide (20-36 SU between June 9th-August 12th) which threatened to derail their p.s. hopes, then
(3) Their late recovery (25-17 SU) which salvaged a WC spot.
[Fortunately for them, one of the best performed teams on paper they met during their slide also happened to be sliding bigtime themselves: MIL got swept by SF during their own 19 game, 3-16 SU slide. If the Brewers had been playing to their previous standards heading into that series, SF would've likely failed to grab a WC spot].
No prizes for guessing which period of form SF was in at the time they headed into KC (specifically, at the tail end of a 10 game road trip: it was upon returning home that they set about generating their 3rd act of the reg. season). Conversely, KC was in the middle of a 27 game, 22-5 SU run (rebounding off a prior 3-10 SU slide that straddled the AS break) at the time they hosted SF. The nature of each team's efforts in that series reflects perfectly where each team was psychologically at that time.
Of course KC might've inflicted exactly the same outcome had SF been in better form, and those results could actually be indicative of the way these two teams match-up. It's possible, but, as with my expectations re KC's batting continuing to pull horseshoes out of its ass, I think the surface factors I've highlighted adequately explain matters. Hence - given SF's current form is much different from their reg. season's 2nd act - I don't see anything from those early August results being useful, statistically speaking, as a WS reference.
SF vs KC, who you guys got? You got the team who's 8-0 and can't seem to do any wrong in KC, then you have SF who just seems to get it done in the end. I like the Royals story this year but I have to go with the Giants and their experience. Either way hopefully it'll be a good one.
Best matchup given current form a fan could ask for imo
The world will be pulling for the Royals, tired of the Giants (and they would be tired of the Cardinals as well). Interesting series, shouldn't be high scoring which means there will be 9+ runs in at least 3 games. Bullpen clearly favors Royals, lineups in general seem similar.
Go Royals.
You may be on to something with an under chaseunder chase? or just under in every game of the series?
after just writing my under stuff, there's a reason i don't touch the playoffs because teams perform the opposite of how they do in the regular season so maybe i should just stay in retirement until 2015
SF vs KC, who you guys got? You got the team who's 8-0 and can't seem to do any wrong in KC, then you have SF who just seems to get it done in the end. I like the Royals story this year but I have to go with the Giants and their experience. Either way hopefully it'll be a good one.
Meals behind the plate tends to favor Shields in Game 1, the sample size is not as small as you would expect with Bum ERA 12.96 and Shields just over 2 as Meals is the Ump.
Would like more stats and trends on Meals.
Meals behind the plate tends to favor Shields in Game 1, the sample size is not as small as you would expect with Bum ERA 12.96 and Shields just over 2 as Meals is the Ump.
Would like more stats and trends on Meals.
BC, I loved your argument for the "The 'warning bells' statistic concerning KCR's unbeaten run to me is the following:Just to note: these playoffs saw the Dog go 14-5 SU out of the blocks, but a regression has occurred in the past handful of games with the Fav going 5-1 SU. We had a very similar situation is last season's playoffs, only the nature of the beast was reversed: then it was the Fav that started out strong (17-4 SU) and the Dog came home hot (12-6 SU).
In that roundabout way that you end up viewing things on youtube, I got to watching the various crucial stages of Florida's clinching game of the 2003 WS. I only bothered to watch the 2 innings they scored in (top of 5th & 6th) and the bot of the 9th, but that was enough for me to fluke seeing the following graphic that appeared after an AB...
View attachment 37163
Since KC's speed (base stealing ability) has been touted as a significant factor in their favour before & throughout the playoffs, it immediately struck me as curious that between '66 & '02 no #1 team in stolen bases had won a WS. First thing I did was dig into the stats to see if any other #1 SB leader had won the WS since the Marlins in '03: nope, they remain the sole reg. season SB leader to win a WS title in the last 47 seasons featuring a WS. Digging even further into the stats told me the following...
Within those 47 seasons:
(1) 12 times the team which finished 1st in the reg. season for stolen bases made the playoffs: the Marlins obv. remain the only team of those 12 to win the WS. 4 of those 12 teams made the WS but lost, while the other 7 teams failed to make the WS at all.
(2) Of the 47 WS contested, 25 were won by the team with the greatest number of SB's vs. 22 won by the team with fewest: basically a wash.
(3) Of the 10 WS played with the greatest disparities of SB numbers between opponents, 6 were won by the team with the fewest (the average deficit for the 'fewest' teams being 110.5 bases, including the top 2 deficits of 186 & 135 - though I will note both of the teams facing these latter disparities needed to win a Game 7). SF's deficit to KC is 97 SB's.
(4) SF ranks 29th in the MLB for SB's this season, making this the 5th straight WS to feature a team with a SB ranking of 29th or worse: 2 of those previous 4 teams won the WS despite giving away an average deficit of 75.2 SB to their opponent.
Summary: looking at the stats I gathered overall (not all posted here), it seems to me there is no significant correlation between how well a team steals bases & any eventual WS success (since I only went back to '66, this assertion basically covers the moment the MLB expanded the postseason to include championship series, hence applies from 1969 onwards. It may very well not apply to that bulk of time in which there was no other postseason period apart from the WS itself).
BC, I loved your argument for the "The 'warning bells' statistic concerning KCR's unbeaten run to me is the following:
7, 2, 1, 8, 5, 6, 2, 2
That's their run production inside regulation innings this post season. It's almost all but all or nothing, basically.
But above you are saying there is regression for the dogs...which SF is a dog at my book, albeit a slight one at +105. So at the same time SF looks like a good bet tonight due to a possible regression from KC and their run production. But on the other hand SF is a dog and that statistic is regressing and there is an argument to fade it. Can you tell me which statistic you feel is stronger?
I'd like to think the jitters are gone for the royals after game 1 under their belt. They left a lot of guys on base and I don't expect that to happen again especially with peavy on the moundi love that game 1 was an over, don't love Cooper and really don't like peavy much but think there's value at 7
I'd like to think the jitters are gone for the royals after game 1 under their belt. They left a lot of guys on base and I don't expect that to happen again especially with peavy on the mound
My .02 cents which is worth more like Pesos.
SF dominated last night from start to finish, and KC looked like a team that finally realized how big the stage is. KC has all the young guns who finally realize the stage they are on, and how lucky they have been. While SF comes in with a veteran squad who has been here done that. Not to mention you have a vet pitcher tonight versus a rookie. If you look at the trends SF is hitting the ball well, while KC has barely hit and when they do get runs they are off of steals, past balls, and pitcher errors.
The game tonight for me is quite easy in playing SF, I don't see this game going any different than last night for KC. Plus money on a hot veteran squad, I will take any day.
With that said, better load up on KC, and no you don't get my two pesos.