Discussion - KC Royals vs. SF Giants 2014 World Series

[TheSportsThing]

ventura becomes ball machine

 

[Schrute]

what does it pay?

So far its a little over 40-1. Obviously tomorrow will bump it up a good bit over that. Tempted to just take a big ML fav in college football and call it a day

 

[KSUVOLS4LIFE]

Is the rapper e40 behind home?

 

[TheSportsThing]

nice tribute to taveras on venturas cap

 

[twinkie13]

wow Guthrie v Hudson it looks like IF they go to G7...

 

[TheSportsThing]

cmon sf

 

[TheSportsThing]

panik battling to full count

 

[TheSportsThing]

wow panik walks here comes sf bags jucied 1 out posey up

 

[TheSportsThing]

omg wow 1 swing 2 outs fucker

 

[cogenman]

If it goes 7, don't want to jinx, you gotta think KC will be a slight favorite. Home field will be huge. Somehow some way you probably see Bum since it's the last game of the season.

 

[Retburj13]

bum's fat lady hasn't sung yet

going to game 7

 

[KJ]

awesome dude...enjoy that shit

you a D-backs guy right? have love for the royals too? I always had a soft spot for the Royals and I am pullin for them here:shake:

yep, just came in for the swan song. not a royals fan per se but I am now, from the area and my buds are all fans, so this is a fun ride

 

[cogenman]

bum's fat lady hasn't sung yet

going to game 7

Damn I knew Bum was doing a lot of heavy lifting for the Giants but I didn't know it was this much, WTF.

 

[aplous]

Man id kill to be in KC today....currently watching my shit get loaded into a moving van in StL. I think Bum comes out of the pen tonight. And I think he gets hit a bit.

 

[oakas]

There have been 9 World Series game 7 since 1982. Every home team has won Game 7.

 

[austinhous]

Jeremy Guthrie's team is 5-0 SU in October against an average line of -115. Guthrie pitched 31.2 innings in those games and allowed 9 runs (9 earned) on 23 hits with 8 walks and 15 strike outs (2.56 ERA, .9789 WHIP). Each of those five games was either the second or third game of the series. This will be his first game seven.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Considering the history of home teams winning late in the series, anyone else think the -125 looked like too low of an opener? I see it's been bet up...

 

[austinhous]

Considering the history of home teams winning late in the series, anyone else think the -125 looked like too low of an opener? I see it's been bet up...

It's a trap, bro. Seriously though, what do you mean with the bolded? Just looking at it from a sabermetrics point of view I think you could argue that it opened about six cents too high.

 

[Fondybadger]

There have been 9 World Series game 7 since 1982. Every home team has won Game 7.

It's a trap, bro. Seriously though, what do you mean with the bolded? Just looking at it from a sabermetrics point of view I think you could argue that it opened about six cents too high.

I think Gorgolon was referring to oakas post. First thing I saw when I turned on ESPN today was that home field winning stat.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Right. This home winning stat/trend has been mentioned all over the place. So people are going to take KC based on that.

 

[GWarner27]

u7 for me

 

[austinhous]

My bad. I get it now. I haven't been watching TV. Well, then if that's the case then it would help to see what the MLs were in those previous WS game 7's so we could compare them. As far as game 7's in the playoffs, I am seeing the home team at 5-2 SU in game 7's in October since 2004, with an average ML of -129 in those seven games:

[TABLE="width: 877"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Day[/TD]
[TD]Site[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[TD]Opp[/TD]
[TD]Starter[/TD]
[TD]Final[/TD]
[TD]W/L[/TD]
[TD]O/U[/TD]
[TD]Line[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]20-Oct-04[/TD]
[TD]Wed[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Yankees[/TD]
[TD]Kevin Brown - ?[/TD]
[TD]Red Sox[/TD]
[TD]Derek Lowe - R[/TD]
[TD]3-10[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-160[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]21-Oct-04[/TD]
[TD]Thu[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Cardinals[/TD]
[TD]Jeff Suppan - R[/TD]
[TD]Astros[/TD]
[TD]Roger Clemens - R[/TD]
[TD]5-2[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]19-Oct-06[/TD]
[TD]Thu[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Mets[/TD]
[TD]Oliver Perez - L[/TD]
[TD]Cardinals[/TD]
[TD]Jeff Suppan - R[/TD]
[TD]1-3[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]21-Oct-07[/TD]
[TD]Sun[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Red Sox[/TD]
[TD]Daisuke Matsuzaka - R[/TD]
[TD]Indians[/TD]
[TD]Jake Westbrook - R[/TD]
[TD]11-2[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-160[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]19-Oct-08[/TD]
[TD]Sun[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Rays[/TD]
[TD]Matt Garza - R[/TD]
[TD]Red Sox[/TD]
[TD]Jon Lester - L[/TD]
[TD]3-1[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]U[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]28-Oct-11[/TD]
[TD]Fri[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Cardinals[/TD]
[TD]Chris Carpenter - R[/TD]
[TD]Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Matt Harrison - L[/TD]
[TD]6-2[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]P[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-140[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]22-Oct-12[/TD]
[TD]Mon[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]Matt Cain - R[/TD]
[TD]Cardinals[/TD]
[TD]Kyle Lohse - R[/TD]
[TD]9-0[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]O[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-135[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]29-Oct-14[/TD]
[TD]Wed[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]Royals[/TD]
[TD]Jeremy Guthrie - R[/TD]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]Tim Hudson - R[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-140[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[BetCrimes1984]

In the WS game 7's since 1969...

- only 2 have had runs scored in the 1st inning

- only 1 has had a team lead after the end of the 1st inning.

- only 2 have been decided by 4+ run margins.

- 50% of 1st scoring teams have lost SU (the highest losing percentage for 1st scoring teams for any game).

 

[Schrute]

Closed the parlay with Giants +1. Would be a nice little payday if it hits but hopefully I can at least get the push

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Brandon Lang 20 dime on KC Royals.

 

[smith1051]

Closed the parlay with Giants +1. Would be a nice little payday if it hits but hopefully I can at least get the push

Is that the 7 game parlay you started on the 1st game?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Bumgarner is big curve ball in this, which makes the game a risky bet for either side. I think the value is in SF, and you hope some combo of Hudson/Bum keeps them in it.

 

[6fml6]

In the WS game 7's since 1969...

- only 2 have had runs scored in the 1st inning

love the history here, but tough to lay 40c with hudson and guthrie, neither of which has strikeout stuff

 

[Schrute]

Is that the 7 game parlay you started on the 1st game?

Yup. Giants, Over, Under, Giants, Giants, Over

Like SF tonight but decided to cover myself with +1

 

[BJPLAYER]

Yup. Giants, Over, Under, Giants, Giants, Over

Like SF tonight but decided to cover myself with +1

This is an awesome bet....good luck my man

 

[Jayhawk Nation]

Let's go Royals!!!!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The last 16 WS have seen the team who won the last game played in the WS, also win the penultimate game played. This is the longest such streak in WS history (previous longest record was 14 straight WS). The last time this failed to occur was in 1997 (Cleveland won the penultimate game, Florida won the clincher).

Before this current 16 game streak, the ratio of penul. winner/clinching winner to penul. losers/clinching winner was

from 1969 - 2.11:1

from 1903 - 2.00:1