Discussion - KC Royals vs. SF Giants 2014 World Series

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aplous said:
This is ridiculous to me.....they finally realized they were on the big stage?.
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I may have worded it poorly, but would you not agree they are playing out of their mind. I don't see too many other teams in the middle of a playoff run running to every appearance they can whether it be the Chiefs or the Cavs games. That isn't a big deal, but I am saying they are young and inexperienced. I am not even just talking about the players, I also mean their dipshit manager Yost who loves to bring in Starters in relief spots. I agree Bum likely made them look worse than they are but I still saw a squad that can't keep pace with the Giants. The entire country is following and cheering for KC. Bum at -110 is a joke, and I will continue to ride this train until I am proven otherwise.

If Ventura tends to overthrow and get overhyped, don't you think it is likely he may do it again in front of 60,000 on the biggest stage?

[video=youtube;-BjqDBNWCbc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BjqDBNWCbc[/video]
 
I think they'll get on base plenty tonight against Peavy, pretty good match up for the Royals bats. Question is will they get the key hits to score or end up with a big LOB number.
 
 
No action. Go Royals.

Over would have been my play if I made one, like that prop bet DS
 
KC all the way up to -145 at my shop



I see how it looks YoungGun...but if you followed this team youd realize they are always out and about in the community....Billy Butler was at Okie Joe's today no big deal. Big city teams dont do that but its normal for the Royals...that hasn't changed just b/c they're in the postseason, its been like that all year.

Ventura has been excellent in his 2 postseason starts thus far....I think he keeps it up tonight.



GL all!
 
Just started looking Hudson with Reynolds in 2014 8 innings 2.25 ERA Hudson with Reynolds 2006 14 innings 1.93 ERA no interest in 2012 On 6 plus 2.96 ERA but think here he will be better. He did win 18 straight at this site
 
Guthrie on 6 4.40 28.2 innings with Reynolds this year 8 innings 0 runs Career with Reynolds 2.33 27 innings hello under
 
I've had the first 2 games right so far....pretty much done betting it as my rooting interest is too intense but i would be on SF tonight and some Panda props. That fat bastard is so locked in its scary. Guthrie won't strike out many so you know the Giants are going to put it in play. After everyone in the media sucking of Ned Yost after Game 2 I fully expect a dumb ass move tonight regarding bunts or double switches...trying to pimp his NL experience. GL tonight if you bet it....Go Royals.
 
aplous said:
I've had the first 2 games right so far....pretty much done betting it as my rooting interest is too intense but i would be on SF tonight and some Panda props. That fat bastard is so locked in its scary. Guthrie won't strike out many so you know the Giants are going to put it in play. After everyone in the media sucking of Ned Yost after Game 2 I fully expect a dumb ass move tonight regarding bunts or double switches...trying to pimp his NL experience. GL tonight if you bet it....Go Royals.
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Agree with this analysis

What a great sports night tonight for a Friday
 
Couple of less than usual aspects to the start of this WS, so here's a historical context to them (I've only sourced stats from WS - 44 in total - that have taken place since '69, the point where the post season was first expanded to include championship series).


(1) The first 2 games have been decided by 6 & 5 run margins.
Since 1969, only 1 previous WS has seen the first 3 games decided by margins of 4 runs or more (1989), and only 2 previous WS have seen the first 3 games decided by margins of 3 runs or more (1989 & 1996).


(2) There's been runs in the 1st inning of the first 2 games.
Since 1969, there's been 6 previous instances of the first 3 games of the WS having runs scored in the 1st inning (4 of those 6 went on to see 1st inning run/s in Game 4, and 2 of those 4 then saw 1st inning run/s in Game 5).


(3) SF has scored a 1st inning run in the first 2 games of the WS.
Only 2 teams have scored 1st inning runs in the first 3 games of a WS: Boston in 2004 & Cleveland in 1997. Both of those teams scored 1st inning runs in the first 4 games of those respective WS.


(4) Finally, just a quirky stat: SF scored 3 runs in the very first inning they batted in this WS. Since 1969, this -a team scoring at least 3 runs to open their WS offensively- had happened 5 previous times. The 3 teams who subsequently went on to score at least as many runs as they got in that 1st inning through the remainder of Game 1, ended up winning that WS (Boston in 2013, 2007 & 2004). The 2 teams who failed to score at least as many runs again through the remainder of their Game 1's, ended up losing the WS (Baltimore in 1979 & NYY in 1981).

SF of course totaled 4 runs through the remainder of Game 1, after putting up 3 in the 1st inning.
 
Some more historical WS stats, as we heads into game 6 (once again, I've only sourced stats from WS - 44 in total - that have taken place since '69, the point where the post season was first expanded to include championship series). Make of them what you will...


(1) Since '69 (& incl. games already played in this WS), these are the percentages of games decided by 4+ run margins:

Game 1 - 35.5%
Game 2 - 35.5%
Game 3 - 37.8%
Game 4 - 20.0%
Game 5 - 33.3%
Game 6 - 40.0%
Game 7 - 14.2%

Game 6 has been the single most likely spot to deliver a blowout result. Interestingly, 50% of the game 6's involving blowouts ended the WS concerned, and 50% led to a game 7: numbers don't portray the series leader or trailer as more likely to deliver a blowout (if there is one).


(2) There's been 3 previous instances of games 5 & 6 being decided by 4+ run margins (1977-78-79).


(3) The above said, since '69 there's been no instances of game's 4-5-6 all being decided by 4+ run margins. There is, however, 1 instance of games 4-5-6 all being decided by 3+ run margins: in 1977, a WS that ended with game 6.


(4) Since '69, 56% of teams leading the WS 3-2 have scored 1st in game 6.


(5) Since '69, 64% of the teams who scored 1st in game 6 have won game 6.


(6) Prior to 1995 (& therefore the advent of WC teams, making for a longer postseason), 56.2% of game 6's had a run scored in the 1st inning. Since 1995, only 22.2% of game 6's have seen a 1st inning run scored.


(7) Since '69, only 1 road team has managed 2+ 1st inning runs in a game 6, compared to 5 home teams. Curiously, that sole road team lost their game 6 and the WS as a result.


(8) Since '69, there's only been 2 previous instances of a team (1 home, 1 road) having scored a 1st inning run in a game 6 win that consequently clinched the WS. The kicker? No team based in the US has done it (The Blow Jays are responsible for both instances, in '92 & '93).
 
You know what recent history tells us? That it's great to be home. And it's even greater to be home for Game 6 of the World Series. Whether you're winning the Series. Whether you're trailing the World Series. Doesn't matter. Check out that recent trend:


• Starting in 1982, the home team has gone 22-3 in Games 6 and 7. And yes, you read that right. We said 22-and-3. That's an .880 winning percentage. Which makes no mathematical sense at all. If you subtract those 25 games, the winning percentage of home teams in all other World Series games, including this year, is just .540. Amazing.


• No team has lost either a Game 6 or 7 at home since 2003, when the Marlins rolled into Yankee Stadium and Josh Beckett-ized the Yankees. Home teams are 4-0 since that night.

• Over the past 20 World Series, just one other team has lost a Game 6 or 7 at home. And that was the 1997 Marlins, who lost Game 6 to the Indians but came back to win Game 7 the next night. So overall, in those 20 World Series from 1993-2013, home teams went 12-2 in Games 6 and 7.
• And since '82, the only other home team to lose a Game 6 or 7 is the 1992 Braves, who lost Game 6 and the Series to the Blue Jays.


• So if you've looked all this over carefully, you'll notice one more trend: No home team has lost a Game 7 in 35 years, since the Pirates won their last title in Baltimore. Since then, road teams have lost eight straight Game 7s.


OK, that's the game data. Now let's take a look at results of the World Series as a whole when it goes six games or more. The Royals will be big fans of these tidbits, too.


• There have been 17 World Series that went six games or more since 1982. The home team has won 15 of them. Fifteen.


• And during that period, 10 teams were in the Giants' position -- leading the World Series 3-2, but heading out on the road for the final two games. Eight of those 10 teams lost the World Series, by falling in both Games 6 and 7 on the road. The only exceptions were those 2003 Marlins and 1992 Blue Jays.
 
much too much focus being put on the starters tonight. both will be on a short leash, which is keeping me away from the over. lean sf despite all the trends going against them. feel if they get to ventura early with a quick lead, bochy won't let peavy get close to blowing it before employing his entire bullpen. that's a big if though, as peavy has looked considerably worse (not to mention his history at kc). already played peavy under 3.5 k's and ventura under 4.5 k's. may add on kc to score first at even, but not sure.
 
6fml6 said:
much too much focus being put on the starters tonight. both will be on a short leash, which is keeping me away from the over
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Agree with you that too much focus is on starters tonight, but it isn't keeping me away from the over. Can't really justify either side tonight though so need something.
 
I went into the Series committed to betting the Giants the first five innings of every game. I figured with the Royals bullpen, if the Giants were going to get any momentum, it would be in the first five innings.

Depending on the line, I have either bet it straight up or plus 1/2 run each time. Only one loss so far, a few wins and a push. I think there is again some considerable value in +120 tonight getting 1/2 run 1st 5.
 
Well at the beginning of this thing I decided to do a 7 game open parlay with the intention of betting on every game. I never thought I'd win them all but I went Giants, Royals, Under, Giants, Giants, Over.

It's just $20 but it's a nice little payout if I hit tomorrow. I'm sure I'll overthink it and fuck it up. Right now I'm leaning towards Giants for tomorrow
 
Schrute said:
Well at the beginning of this thing I decided to do a 7 game open parlay with the intention of betting on every game. I never thought I'd win them all but I went Giants, Royals, Under, Giants, Giants, Over.

It's just $20 but it's a nice little payout if I hit tomorrow. I'm sure I'll overthink it and fuck it up. Right now I'm leaning towards Giants for tomorrow
Click to expand...
what does it pay?
 
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