DFS/Props Week 17 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
My best lineup in yesterdays 20 entry max, finished in 639th out of 80K.... I put Otton in this lineup at like 12:50pm~ after I saw brate was inactive.... I forget who I had, but it would have definitely been better.... had 2 others in the top 3,500 that were a bit more balanced overall.
Stinks the season is coming closer to a close, as I'm just heating up!.... but still a little bit of time left.
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
BUF/CIN
Bills have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a bad P/RB matchup.
Allen has a great ASR matchup.
Mixon has a bad ALY push.
Pace of play is 3rd overall.
- Injuries - BUF - On D, notable S Poyer (95%) is Q. CB Benford (62%) is returning from a 4 week hiatus.
- CIN - On D, notable DE Hubbard (81%) is Q. On OL, T Collins (best rated) is out.
- At RB, Cooks has flirted around 40% snap count for 4 weeks, while Singletary has been between 45-60% in that same time frame. Game 1 vs the Pats, the Bills led from 2nd quarter on, and had a positive run script early, Singletary had 15 opps (2 targets) to cooks 20 (6 targets), Same script with the jets, singletary had 10 opps (2 targets) to cooks 5 (1 target). Game 3 vs the dolphins was a neutral script throughout, and Singletary had 17 opps (4 targets), to cooks 8 (3 targets). Game 4 was fairly neutral (to positive) and singletary had 15 opps (3 targets), to cooks 13 (2 targets). I say this to help you find some type of conclusion on how you feel this game plays out, and how to center your lineup around it. It seems like in Positive run scripts (2+ possession lead), Cook seems to be slightly better, and in neutral scripts, Singletary seems to be slightly better. We haven't really seen them in a negative script since Cooks increased role. If you think this is a BUF roll, go cook over singletary, if closely contested go singletary over cook, and if you think CIN rolls, while they may have a ppr floor, just go with the passing attack options more. Davis plays more snaps than diggs, he's quietly had about the same amount of target share over the past handful of weeks (although I know Diggs just dudded), and he has the higher a/DOT/r of the 2, recently, he's been seeing more RZ targets than earlier in the year too. I'm not saying not to go Diggs, but just pointing out that davis comes 4K! cheaper, and has just as much upside (maybe a lower floor). Please don't play beasley and his 10%~ snap count avg. Mckenzie sees way more snaps/targets and they are similiarly priced, I'd rather go to Shakir if I'm punting (he did return last week and played his season high 39% of snaps). I never really cared for knox this year, but not only has he scored in 3 straight, in that time span, he's had a 22% target share which is almost 7 targets a game, a good te a/DOT/r of 9 (much better than earlier in the year), he can definitely be considered.
Since Mixon's return 3 weeks ago, him and Perine have also been in a 60-40~ split. But we have a different usage with them than BUFs situation. Mixon still averaged 19+ opps, (just under 6 target avg.), while Perine is just at 8+ (just over 3 target avg.) I hope people see the bad ALY push, the missing of their best T, the lower playing time, and avoid Mixon, because I still think he's super safe, and has a good ceiling. I won't be on Perine really, unless we really think its a steam roll, but still, you could get Boyd/Irwin and would be just as highly projected as perine if it was a blowout. Speaking of the WRs, and I guess I'll start bottom up, Irwin is a good story with 3 TDs in his last 3, but in Boyds return 2 weeks ago, he play just 24% of snaps, and last week he hit just 45%, and that may have been more of the Bengals playing with a 2 to 3 possession lead by halftime, I don't have the 1st half snap counts, but I'd have more interest in knowing that, either way my point is I still believe in Boyd as a cheap option if he's going to be low owned, and not Irwin as much, especially if peopel chase...but I know boyds clearly not a priority anymore. I like chase, but if you take out his week 14 (when he played without boyd/higgins), his aDOT/r has really came down, as it sits at 5.4 over the past few weeks (exluding that game), while higgins is higher. Having said that, he is targeted more, they're priced similarly, and either way, you're almost flipping a coin choosing over the 2 (If picking one, I lean higgins a bit more though). With Hurst back, him and Wilcox will probably go to a 60-40 split (70-30 max), I don't think you need either, but they are cheap options that get you exposure to the offense... so I get it.
Stinks the season is coming closer to a close, as I'm just heating up!.... but still a little bit of time left.
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
BUF/CIN
Bills have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a bad P/RB matchup.
Allen has a great ASR matchup.
Mixon has a bad ALY push.
Pace of play is 3rd overall.
- Injuries - BUF - On D, notable S Poyer (95%) is Q. CB Benford (62%) is returning from a 4 week hiatus.
- CIN - On D, notable DE Hubbard (81%) is Q. On OL, T Collins (best rated) is out.
- At RB, Cooks has flirted around 40% snap count for 4 weeks, while Singletary has been between 45-60% in that same time frame. Game 1 vs the Pats, the Bills led from 2nd quarter on, and had a positive run script early, Singletary had 15 opps (2 targets) to cooks 20 (6 targets), Same script with the jets, singletary had 10 opps (2 targets) to cooks 5 (1 target). Game 3 vs the dolphins was a neutral script throughout, and Singletary had 17 opps (4 targets), to cooks 8 (3 targets). Game 4 was fairly neutral (to positive) and singletary had 15 opps (3 targets), to cooks 13 (2 targets). I say this to help you find some type of conclusion on how you feel this game plays out, and how to center your lineup around it. It seems like in Positive run scripts (2+ possession lead), Cook seems to be slightly better, and in neutral scripts, Singletary seems to be slightly better. We haven't really seen them in a negative script since Cooks increased role. If you think this is a BUF roll, go cook over singletary, if closely contested go singletary over cook, and if you think CIN rolls, while they may have a ppr floor, just go with the passing attack options more. Davis plays more snaps than diggs, he's quietly had about the same amount of target share over the past handful of weeks (although I know Diggs just dudded), and he has the higher a/DOT/r of the 2, recently, he's been seeing more RZ targets than earlier in the year too. I'm not saying not to go Diggs, but just pointing out that davis comes 4K! cheaper, and has just as much upside (maybe a lower floor). Please don't play beasley and his 10%~ snap count avg. Mckenzie sees way more snaps/targets and they are similiarly priced, I'd rather go to Shakir if I'm punting (he did return last week and played his season high 39% of snaps). I never really cared for knox this year, but not only has he scored in 3 straight, in that time span, he's had a 22% target share which is almost 7 targets a game, a good te a/DOT/r of 9 (much better than earlier in the year), he can definitely be considered.
Since Mixon's return 3 weeks ago, him and Perine have also been in a 60-40~ split. But we have a different usage with them than BUFs situation. Mixon still averaged 19+ opps, (just under 6 target avg.), while Perine is just at 8+ (just over 3 target avg.) I hope people see the bad ALY push, the missing of their best T, the lower playing time, and avoid Mixon, because I still think he's super safe, and has a good ceiling. I won't be on Perine really, unless we really think its a steam roll, but still, you could get Boyd/Irwin and would be just as highly projected as perine if it was a blowout. Speaking of the WRs, and I guess I'll start bottom up, Irwin is a good story with 3 TDs in his last 3, but in Boyds return 2 weeks ago, he play just 24% of snaps, and last week he hit just 45%, and that may have been more of the Bengals playing with a 2 to 3 possession lead by halftime, I don't have the 1st half snap counts, but I'd have more interest in knowing that, either way my point is I still believe in Boyd as a cheap option if he's going to be low owned, and not Irwin as much, especially if peopel chase...but I know boyds clearly not a priority anymore. I like chase, but if you take out his week 14 (when he played without boyd/higgins), his aDOT/r has really came down, as it sits at 5.4 over the past few weeks (exluding that game), while higgins is higher. Having said that, he is targeted more, they're priced similarly, and either way, you're almost flipping a coin choosing over the 2 (If picking one, I lean higgins a bit more though). With Hurst back, him and Wilcox will probably go to a 60-40 split (70-30 max), I don't think you need either, but they are cheap options that get you exposure to the offense... so I get it.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
If you can get that number on Davis definitely. I’m seeing higher
