Dapper Dan Picks - Season Long NCAAF Thread

DapperDan

DapperDan

Pretty much a regular
Hey Fellas,
I've been a regular in other online forums for a while and wanted to bring my write-ups to these boards in hopes of sharing good info and receiving feedback.
My lifetime documented picks in online forums are:
2012 Total: 80 - 58 (+22.3 units)
2013 Total: 96 - 97 (+10.62 units)
2014 Total: 66 - 87 (-27.55 units)
2015 Total: 82 - 54 (+26.98 units)
2016 Total: 65 - 67 (-5.37 units)
2017 Total: 74 - 66 (+1.41 units)
2018 Total: 72 - 90 (-20.19 units)
2019 Total: 70 - 68 (+0.87 units)
Lifetime Total: 605 - 587 (+9.07 units)

I also created a google sheet with all of these picks graded and they can be found in other forums posted well before game time. I typically post Saturday mornings and track and use all my picks through pickmonitor.com. google sheet link here

So far this season I am 13-12 (-0.66 units) but I will start fresh here at 0-0 since I did not post any of those plays here (basically even anyways)

Anyways here's my two writeups I have for two games I have locked in so far. More will be posted tomorrow morning!

Week 6:
Louisville -5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Louisville TT over 34.5 (-104) .5x Risking .52 units to win .5 units
Louisville's offensive line has poor numbers this season but they have faced two of the most aggressive teams when it comes to defensive pressure in Miami and Pitt. Last week their offense struggled in pass protection allowing 4 sacks, 11 hurries, and 19 qb pressures. This won’t be the case against a Georgia tech team who is nowhere in the same league as Narduzzi’s squad. Georgia Tech's defensive line only has 6 sacks on the season, and ranks 43rd in the pass rush according to PFF (where Pitt ranks 7th and Miami 19th). Louisville also loves to run the ball, ranking 28th this season in rushing play % (and 10th last season) which is a weakness of this Georgia Tech defense who ranks 93rd in yards per rush attempt allowed this season (last year ranked 96th) . As fast and elusive as Jeff Sims is, he still struggles with mistakes and ranks 139th amongst QBs according to PFF with only 3 TDs and 8 INTs. He also has two fumbles on the year, losing one of them. Even if we somehow don’t win the turn-over battle in this game, I don’t see how the Georgia Tech offense can keep up with this explosive Louisville offense that should put up 35+ without issue.

Miami +14.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Miami TT Over 23.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Miami ML (+391) .25x Risking .25 units to win .98 units
Since tracking my picks online publicly, I am (9-10) ATS (-1.67 units since 2012) when betting on my hometown team Miami but that's all about to turn around this season. Maybe it's my hometown bias but this Miami team is very good this year and will make this a competitive game with Clemson unlike years past. D’Eriq King grades out to the 4th best QB in college ball with over 50 pass attempts, and he has more attempts than the few graded above him (frigging Trevor Lawrence) and still 0 INTs. He grades out as a better runner and ball handler than Lawrence. In 2018 when both of these players last played a full season, King graded out higher than Lawrence ranking 3rd nationally with Lawrence ranking 8th. Venables runs a very aggressive defense and the best way to counter that is a mobile veteran QB like King. Last week, Brennan Armstrong with Virgina was able to put up 23 points against Clemson and run for almost 100 yards picking up a lot of crucial first downs showing chinks in a young defense that Miami should be able to expose. Miami has routinely under-performed the last 10 years in the big games which is fresh in the public's mind driving this high number but this is a different coaching staff (Manny has been their defensive leader here since 2016 but defense has never been their issue) and new group of players with an actual good starting QB unlike years past. The weather should also be in our favor as heavy rains are and winds are expected and Miami won’t have to worry so much about the deep ball which Clemson’s offense heavily relies on.
 
Glad to see you here brother, I can certainly verify you have always tracked your plays at the other place (unlike myself, lol).

I love ville also, I’d add another problem for tech defense is ive noticed not only do they struggle getting to the qb but when they actually do get pressure they have allowed the qbs to escape and make plays which something Cunningham is more astute at than any the QBs they have faced so far.

I do think tech and Simms will be able to move the ball between the 20s cause lets face it, ville d isn’t very good. However ville does rank in top 30 in red zone td percentage and tech has struggled mightily in the red zone, as young QBs often do, only scoring tds around 57% of their trips (not to mention botching several fgs). I don’t think they can afford to trade Fgs for tds, their one saving grace has been their red zone d has been very stingy but they facing a ville squad who will not only score from far out but ranks 25th nationally in RZ TD percentage cashing in over 91% their chances.

im just not sure how big a buyer I am in the canes? king obviously makes them much much better but dunno if they are able to compete with best team in the country better?? This probably be a watch and see game for me unless I can find something on the total. Gl this weekend.
 
B.A.R. said:
Bring some more guys over.

We do a lot of cash contests and have a pretty relaxed crowd here.

Leggo Louisville!
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I have a few more coming in next week or 2., one my favorite guys “tanko” plans on joining but I guess he in path the hurricane so said he probably wouldn’t sign up till next week. Everyone who pm’s me at the other place asking where I been I have been telling them to come over here where we have a smaller group of much sharper guys with none the garbage that ruins good discussion threads!!

we can discuss my commission fee later :).
 
2daBank said:
I have a few more coming in next week or 2., one my favorite guys “tanko” plans on joining but I guess he in path the hurricane so said he probably wouldn’t sign up till next week. Everyone who pm’s me at the other place asking where I been I have been telling them to come over here where we have a smaller group of much sharper guys with none the garbage that ruins good discussion threads!!

we can discuss my commission fee later :).
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I got ya Dan!
 
Love these write-ups!
2daBank said:
I have a few more coming in next week or 2., one my favorite guys “tanko” plans on joining but I guess he in path the hurricane so said he probably wouldn’t sign up till next week. Everyone who pm’s me at the other place asking where I been I have been telling them to come over here where we have a smaller group of much sharper guys with none the garbage that ruins good discussion threads!!

we can discuss my commission fee later :).
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BAR already hooked you up with that sick avatar :) if nothing else, it‘s a good reminder of where your loyalties lie...I was getting worried yesterday that you were starting to fall in love with Oakland beyond a betting context
 
I could prob snatch a bunch if I went over there and make a college thread for the week and let everyone know this only place they be able to find me moving forward. Might create a war tho!! And I do still like some those ppl and enjoy their contest!!! Lol
 
Not to brag or nothing but when I was still posting there and here last year my weekly college threads were getting 5-10k views per weekend. No appreciation tho, like they couldn’t even be bothered keeping the trash out what I thought were really good threads!!! Had to waste my time e-battling with idiots!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Not to brag or nothing but when I was still posting there and here last year my weekly college threads were getting 5-10k views per weekend. No appreciation tho, like they couldn’t even be bothered keeping the trash out what I thought were really good threads!!! Had to waste my time e-battling with idiots!! Lol
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This one old guy there bullied me by making all sorts of crazy and mean accusations and other jerks called me a tout lol. What a bunch of assholes.
 
And really all I did was model them after the great discussion threads we have here. Didn’t wanna make it a strictly pick thread and wanted everyone to be involved. Def a handful of guys I enjoyed discussing games with but I’ve learned way way more bout this stuff from the way smaller numbers of guys here at ctg who all contribute and have always been awesome about sharing the why or the angle opposed to the wanna be tout idiots who just think nobody should question them, which helps nobody!
 
VirginiaCavs said:
This one old guy there bullied me by making all sorts of crazy and mean accusations and other jerks called me a tout lol. What a bunch of assholes.
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oh there all kinds of douchbags there. Which of course a reflection of life. They do crszy numbers so of course more assholes!! You wouldn’t believe how many stupid ass e-battles I been in over the years there!! Usually make them run away crying!! But such a waste of time!! Nothing worse than ppl who talk a certain ignorant way when they can’t be touched. I’ve dreamed of seeing so many then in the street!!
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Love these write-ups!


BAR already hooked you up with that sick avatar :) if nothing else, it‘s a good reminder of where your loyalties lie...I was getting worried yesterday that you were starting to fall in love with Oakland beyond a betting context
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fish Ff and Oakland were probably my last hurrah with bases for the year. No fans, Rona, crazy scheduling and stupid ass rules just flipped what normally one of if not my best sport to cap upside-down and on my head! Other than that stretch of pounding cards/brewers unders I did pretty awful I think, I didn’t track but I damn sure didn’t make money, almost certainly lost some which was the 1st time that has happened in many moons!! Lol.

I did pound that gm2 Ff under in Braves fish game and Oakland game 3 which made me think just maybe I turned the corner! Then I Gave it all back yesterday missing those 2 games horribly then capping it off with the yanks over which never had a chance!!! Thank god ncaa fb got here when it did!!!

so naturally today I threw one last 20 spot away by putting rays ml in a parlay wit ville and over!! Lmao.
 
I know you a huge canes fan Dan, there a few others here as well. Im
Really curious do ya’ll feel they really the 7th best team in the nation??
 
Shit I’ve seen more discussion in this one week here then I
2daBank said:
I know you a huge canes fan Dan, there a few others here as well. Im
Really curious do ya’ll feel they really the 7th best team in the nation??
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It's really had to tell considering the teams Miami has played to date. This week we will find out if they can keep it close!

These are my coaching notes for the two guys in charge of Miami:
Manny Diaz has been all around the league and his defenses have historically improved where he has gone - I have him rated as an A-. He was DC at MTSU from ‘05-’09. MTSU defense was average during his tenure until the final season where they dramatically improved and ranked 21st in ypp allowed in ‘09. ‘10 lead a very strong defense at Miss State and was a big turn around from Miss States ‘09 team. In ‘11-’13 was at Texas. Had a great first season in 2011 at Texas that ranked 8th in ypp allowed but then struggled in ‘12 and ‘13. In ‘14 had one season as DC at LA Tech and did well ranking 22nd in ypp. In ‘15 had one average season at Miss State ranking 48th in ypp and has been at Miami since ‘16. In ‘16 Miami ranked 16th in ypp, in ‘17 ranked 9th in ypp allowed, in '18 ranked 3rd in ypp allowed and last year ranked 10th. He has done all this at Miami despite having horrible offenses. Rhett Lashlee I have rated as a B+ - he was a disciple of Guz Malzahn who worked under him as OC at Arkansas Ste in ’12 and Auburn from ’13-’16. In ’13 was finalist for the Broyles Award. Lashlee took over play-calling duties halfway thru ’16 season which led to success for Auburn. In '17 he had a one year bad stint at Uconn but who could excel at that program? Last two years he was at SMU where he struggled to implement his system first year ranking 110th in ypp but dramatically improving in his 2nd year ranking 31st in ypp.

So considering the coaches, D'eriq King, and the playmakers (that miami seems to always have), I think Miami definitely has Top 10 potential, especially with 40 teams still not having played. Facing the entire ACC will definitely be interesting and a much tougher schedule than normal so looking forward to seeing what's to come.

Anyways just sat down with a couple J's and some coffee and am going to dig into the card all night long :badass:. Let me know if you guys find anything.....finishing writeup on Duke, with a couple other writeups in the works and nothing else locked in but quite a few leans. I am trying to limit my plays too this season compared to years past I usually have 10-12 a week.....


This is great I think we've generated more discussion on my first day posting here than I did in two whole seasons at some of the other places :cheers3: it motivates me to crunch the numbers and dig deep for golden nuggets!
 
I’ve been down to 5-7 plays per week this year compared to 10-12 average the last few years. Stupid Covid has just limited the games but at least we have some!!!

once again this week I’m incredibly intrigued with a Pitt total (and crazy enough once again it a over, just like last week against NCst where they over did cash). I love Pitt D but freaking 43? In a game I suspect we see 75 passes?!?!?? I might not love either offense but the math just doesn’t add up!! Lots of things can happen when a team drops back to pass and many of them can lead to points! Both teams rank among top of the ncaa in sack percentage so always chance for sack/fumble or a pick under duress. There no chance in hell BC gonna move the ball on the ground so they gonna be throwing a lot (5th in the nation in percentage of pass plays!). Ncst was able to have a lot of success thru the air last week. Pitt tries to run but they not very successful at it, either one of 2 things happen here, they have success rushing vs a beatable BC run d which be fine, or they continue letting Pickett air it out against a BC defense that let north Texas have fairly good success against and only held unc down cause they got gassed by the heels run game in big chunks. 43 just seems way low here as I think both teams can easily reach 20!!
 
Lol so much for me limiting my plays this week, I'm just finishing up card and have 8 set for tmrw (Miami is 3 of the 8 since pts, ML, and TT) , will clean up write-ups and post in the morning....

Ya, that total does look awfully low considering Pickett has hit the deep ball more than any other QB in college also.....for the game I ended up just pulling the trigger on a little ML parlay with Pitt and UVA.....I think BC has been very fortunate this season so far and have really benefited from the "surprise" factor as no teams have been able to properly prepare for them as none of their coaches have any recent experience at the collegiate level, haha. I think they are going to get beat up the end of the season. Too much hype for this Hafley character without any really substance to his body of work as a coach. one year as a co-dc last year at Ohio State? Sure they were great but they were an already established powerhouse with all star athletes....
 
Week 6 adds: (write-ups below)
2 team ML Parlay (-108): UVA (-290) and Pitt (-230)
Virginia/NC State under 58.5 (+101)
Duke - 1 (-107)
Georgia -12.5 (-111) .
Auburn/Arkansas Under 45.5 (-111)

Week 6 additions:
2 team ML Parlay (-108). Virginia (-290) and Pitt (-230) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
NC State comes into its 3rd straight road game squeaking out an upset win against Pitt, one they were very fortunate to get many breaks in order to win. They converted only 9 of 18 possessions on 3rd and 4th down, and around 4 of which I counted were bs flags including a few on the last drive to win down by 5 with 1:44 left. Virginia’s offense looks great under new lefty QB, Armstrong who is also averaging 4.25 ypc despite having faced one of the toughest defenses in Clemson. He had some great throws too and looks to be a true dual threat QB, true to Mendenhall’s style and recruiting prowess. Virginia’s also a very disciplined team under Mendenhall’s coaching, ranking 2nd this year in penalties per play (last year they ranked 20th). Although Doeren returns as head coach for NC State, he brings in two new coordinators, both of which I have rated pretty low as they have never done anything impressive in their careers. I can’t believe I find myself fading this BC team again but the numbers are what they are. As inexperienced as this new coaching staff is, early on the season it can also be advantageous as many teams do not know how to strategize or prepare for them (also being +4 in TO margin against Duke really helped). This Pittsburgh team will be fired up after losing to NC State last week in a game they should have won but made too many mistakes and bad flags (and somehow got stopped for four downs on 1st and goal on the 1). Pitt has one of the most experienced teams returning ranking 27th in experience charts as they were extremely young last year and I expect the experience and cohesiveness within the coaching staff will ultimately prevail and they pull off this win. It’s tough to take Pitt with any amount of points so we take the ML. I’m going to start posting more two team parlays and teasers as they were pretty successful for me back in ‘12-’15 but I got away from them as the tracking sites I used don’t currently offer them (but will be soon hopefully soon)

Virginia/NC State under 58.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Despite these two teams going 5-0 on overs so far this season, I love this under. UVA’s defense did what it could against Clemson but may be the best offense in college football with Lawrence at the helm. They should have a field day against this NC State offense that has struggled protecting their passer, ranking 70th (out of 75 teams) in pass blocking. Mendenhall loves to bring pressure and although this year they haven't had big success yet (only two games and one team best in the land) I expect them to be a big influence on this one and effect sophomore QB Devin Leary, NC State's QB who started the last 6 games last season (and lost all 6). Leary didn’t even play the first game as Hockman outperformed him in the off-season and re-took the starting role but after Hockman did poorly against Wake, Leary was named the starter in the 2nd game this season. Despite putting up 33 points in their first 3 games, I expect their offense to struggle as they played some easy defenses and are still learning the system of new OC, Tim Beck. A coordinator I have rated a C- as he’s one of these guys who came from a great program at Ohio State in ‘15-’16, but wasn’t calling the plays then and was just a co-OC. In ‘17 he went to Texas where in his first year the offense really struggled ranking 101st in ypp and in his 2nd year they only improved to 74th. In his 3rd year (last year) they improved all the way to 24th in ypp but I can only imagine how inflated that number is having to face BIG 12 defenses. I really think UVA wins this game easily like 32-17 so I will gladly take this high number and sit back and enjoy watching this experienced UVA defense that returns 8 starters and 80% of their tackles from last season.

Duke -1 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Battle of the bottom of the ACC surely won’t get much attention from the media, but I find nice little value in this game betting on Duke. Hopefully this Duke team who has struggled with protecting the ball this season (14 turnovers in the first 3 games) continues to protect the ball like they did last week against Virgina only giving up 1 turnover. Duke has also struggled against the pass rush giving up 17 sacks on the season but Syracuse hasn't been effective this season generating a pass rush as they are currently ranked 60th in pff pass rush grades out of 75 teams that have played. Syracuse’s offensive line has been decimated with injuries this year, so much so that they used two defensive lineman on one of their heavy packages on their 2nd offensive touchdown last week against G-tech. They have 15 sacks on the season but in only 3 games compared to Duke who has had four games. Duke ranks 21st with an 8.7% sack % so they should be able to get some pressure, especially if they get Syracuse in obvious passing situations which seems like it should happen often if Syracuse can’t run the ball. They were unable to break 70 yards in the first two games averaged less than 2 yards per carry, and then against Georgia Tech they were able to rack up 163 yards on the ground but on 41 carries which is less than 4 ypc. Duke has also faced tougher competition this season ranking 10th in sagarin SOS ratings and Syracuse ranking 22nd (although I feel like the gap should be wider but UNC getting lots of respect on sagarin) Duke wins this game, we probably wont watch much of live, and just catch the condensed game films.

Georgia -12.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Is Tennessee always going to be overrated and over-hyped? Just because they are 2-0 against two crap teams this season and put up 31 points in each? Not sure what justified the seemingly low 15 point opening line let alone a drop of 3 points. What should make us believe that this year won’t be similar to last year's outcome where UGA dominated with so many of the same starters returning? Tennessee returns 9 on offense and 8 on defense this season. Although UGA’s offense is very green, their defense will return 8 starters that completely shut-down this Tennessee offense last year holding them to 14 points (only in the 1st half too). Last year, UGA brought the pressure, racking up 6 sacks and 21 hurries. Tennessee had no answer for the pass rush and were predictable in the run game only rushing for 2.4 ypc - a number UGA’s offense almost tripled averaging 5.8 ypc against this same Tennessee front. Tennessee’s front in contrast got 0 sacks and 3 hurries against UGA’s offense. Tennessee has struggled pass blocking in the two games they have played; they are currently ranked 66th in pass blocking. A trend that continues from last year as all 5 starters on their offensive line returns that were ranked 122nd in pass blocking last season. Yes so yes this is an “experienced” bunch, but at this point we can go ahead and call them a bad line. UGA’s offense looked great last week against a very tough Auburn team where they won by 21 and no reason to suspect this game isn't a bigger blow-out than that.

Auburn/Arkansas Under 45.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
I think we will see a heavy dose of the run as Hurricane Delta is expected to dump rain on tjis game and heavy sustained winds. The number has already dropped 6 points, pretty much the max you see bookies drop in these extreme weather cases, but they are never enough. Even without the weather in our favor I like this under for many reasons. Barry Odom is one of these defensive coordinators who schemes great but struggled once taking over the head coaching duties. As a DC at Memphis his defense was consistently in the top 30 and ranked 14th in his 3rd in ypp allowed. Then he came to Missouri and was the DC his first year where he ranked 3rd in ypp allowed, but then, in ‘16 he became head coach and somehow his defense took a turn for the worst, ranking 51st in ‘17 and dropping all the way to 67th in ‘18. Arkansas’s coverage has been great and they surprised everyone last week shutting-down Leach’s air raid with a PFF coverage grade of 85.5 - breaking up 4 passes and reeling in 3 INTs. Despite playing against two great offenses in Georgia and Miss. State, they have some of the highest rankings on defenses, ranking 14 in ypp allowed, 3rd in RZ scoring %, 18th in 3rd down conversion percentage, and 6th in yards per pass. You would think those numbers were Auburn's defenses but Odom is doing a great job with his defense. Although Auburn’s defense struggled last week I suspect they will bounce back strongly like most Kevin Steele’s defenses. Arkansas may also be missing a key part of their offense Rakim Boyd who is nursing a foot injury. This game doesn’t break 40 and it will be enjoyable to watch as both offenses struggled to get any footing and slip and slide all over the field.
 
Headed to book so can’t say much. I like that uva under as well. Guess I’m off the Pitt over as apparently there some nasty wind up in BC today
 
Oof, rough week - sorry fellas. More frustrating when all of you leans hit and the bad beat in UVA game. I think I'm going to take a break from totals as it seems like not having fans in the stadium is having a pretty dramatic effect on as games are sailing over the total and I have made like 6 under picks this season, all have which have lost.

In good news, I just realized FEI ratings data has been released, this is a big part of my handicapping that is only released halfway through the season. I don't see offensive/defensive line data yet (from football outsiders as well) but that looks like it should be out soon and further improves my handicapping.

Going to really crunch the numbers this week and start today to ensure we have a bounce back after a horrible week last week.
 
I had a rough week as well pal, it happens. Good news is at 1st glacé I freaking love the way this card looks! I never said any such thing last week as I never had a great feel for more than just a few, one of which being that uva total that somehow beat us by a half point and really didn’t have any business being that close. Im having a hard time grading my plays this morning cause my normal score/stats app hasn’t been showing stats for any ncaa this week, really bumming me out and making my life a pain! lol.
 
More good news! Offensive and defensive line data is out from Footballoutsiders.....

So every week I create a google spreadsheet that matchups each teams offensive/defensive line stats as well as each teams FEI stats......

Heres a link for this week's in case anyone wants to look: here

Just a little explanation of spread sheet. Each set of numbers are the ranking for each team for their respective offensive/defensive lines from footballoutsiders.com. The ranking in order are for, Line yards Rank, Opportunity Rate Rank, Power Success Rank, Stuff Rank, Sack % Rank (if you don't know the definition of some of these stats they can be looked up on FO) The offensive lines are the always on top and the defensive lines are on bottom. The 3rd line (that is shaded gray) is the differential between the two. If their is a differential between 20-40 the number is shaded slightly green/red (red good for defense/green good for offense). If the differntial is 40+ ranks then it is shaded a darker tone of red/green.

Happy digging folks!

Once the FEI rankings get updated I will perform the same process for the FEI ratings, as well as add a SOS Sagarin Ratings Column to compare side by side each teams stength of schedule side by side.
 
If anyone interested in FEI matchups on google sheet see: here

Looks like FO is also doing F+ ratings which I will do the same for those once they are released. So much easier this season with 1/3 the games compared to years past, lol

Lots of Big Red numbers....in Tulsa/Cinn...locked in the under at 45.5....oh no....
 
I should have grabbed that number yesterday when I went to bet the Monday games. I wasn’t finished with it tho, now I gotta decide if I should jump in at u44 or wait and see? Lot of times these low numbers that get bet down early by smart money often go back up closer to kick. I got Uga/aub one early and it got down to 43 but then I think it ticked back up hour or so before kickoff. Think I’m still happy with u44 but I don’t want less than that really.
 
Ya books been moving lines all over the place this year to entice action. You should be good at 44 too I think we staying well bellow

Week 6 Results: 2-9 (-6.25 units)
Season YTD: 15-21 (-6.91 units)

Week 7:
Cinn/Tulsa Under 45.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
I’m hating unders this year as overs are hitting at a 55% clip on the season in college FBS as offenses no longer struggle to communicate on the road from packed stadiums. But the numbers give us all kinds of good indicators as to why this is a great under to take. At the line of scrimmage, both defensive lines significantly outrank their offensive counterparts in adjusted line yards, opportunity rank, power success rank, and stuff rankings. Both defensive lines are in the top 15 of almost all categories - something neither offensive line has faced yet this season and yet still have struggled to put up good numbers. Last week, Cincinnati was playing shorthanded on the line as 3 offensive lineman sat out due to unspecified injuries/ailments and will most likely be sitting out this week too and are listed as questionable. FEI and F+ numbers also show a significant advantage for the defenses on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati’s defense outranks Tulsa offense by an average of 50.25 ranks in FEI, Points Per Drive (OPD), Available yards per drive (OYD) and net yards per play (OPP). Tulsa’s defense outranks Cincinnati's offense by an average of 65.5 ranks in the same categories. Take the under and lock in while you can at the key number 45 to be safe but 44 should be good regardless.

Ole Miss ML (-138) Risking 2.07 units to win 1.5 units
Arkansas is very fortunate to be 3-0 ATS on the season as their stats show a different story and they caught a sleeping Georgia in the first half of their first game, and have kept it close with an overrated Auburn and Miss. State team. Somehow Sagarin ratings have Arkansas’s SOS ranked higher than Ole Miss, but I disagree and think Ole Miss has had the toughest schedule to date having played Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama. The Rebels offense is finally syncing up and Matt Corral looks like a much better QB than the one who battled for playing time last season. PFF grades him as the 7th best QB (with over 100 pass attempts) despite having some of the worst pass blocking and constantly under pressure he has managed well and protected the football. Fortunately the pass rush is not an area where this Arkansas defense has excelled, ranking 71st in pass rush out of the 76 teams who have played. Ole Miss offense should put up 50+ considering they have already averaged 42 points on the season and I don’t see how this one dimensional Arkansas offense can keep up and ride on the shoulders of Felipe Franks. Arkansas’s rushing attack has been non-existent, averaging 2.4 yards per rush and grading out 76th out 76 teams in run blocking according to PFF. Granted Ole Miss defense is pretty awful but they should be able to get a few stops (or Franks will stop himself by a dumb mistake) and I don’t see how this one is even close which is why we lock in for 1.5 units on the ML.
 
Well I crushed the Dodgers game with team total over, Ff -.5, fg-1.5. I used one of those to start a 2 teamer with the cincy/tulsa u44!! So not only got the number I wanted but now it pays 2.5 to 1 baby!!! Put the rest with coastal 1st half and game yesterday so cashing those tickets soon as I walk in!!!! Woot woot. Only missed 1 3 teamer throwing Rays into one the 4 parlays, can’t win then all but man came so close when rays hit that one off the wall in 9th that would have tied it had it went over fence!! So close! Thought it was gone when he hit it! Lol
 
Have you looked at the ga st/arky st Game tonight? Georgia st stats little tough go gage since they played a solid ull team (who they had! But covered Easy), then cup cake ecu!! On the other hand arky st has played some pushovers but also beat k-st and played Memphis very tough! Going back to last season Georgia st was very tough especially early in the year before falling off late. Including beating this ark at team by 2 tds as a +6.5 dog!!! I feel like the wrong team might be favored here!! You have thoughts??
 
Nah, I tend to stick to power 5 and avoid the group of five unless something really stands out in the numbers

Pissed we got our cinn/tulsa game canceled!
 
Week 7 Adds:
Miami/Pitt Over 47.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Miami’s offense should come out firing against this Pitt defense that relies on applying pressure and making QBs make mistakes. Problem is they won’t be able to bring down and contain King and he should be able to rack up plenty of yards on the ground as well as through the air. Only Zach Wilson has completed more deep balls then Kenny Pickett and you can be sure Pitt will take their fair share of deep shots like Clemson did when 2 of Miami’s 3 safeties were ejected for targeting (one of which will be sitting out first half of this game). Miami’s coverage has struggled in 3 of it’s four games (FSU blows) with a below 65 coverage rating at PFF. Both offenses prefer to throw the ball and I expect this to be a high scoring shootout.

UCF/Memphis Over 73.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This matchup has a shootout written all over it. These two teams didn’t face off last year but did so twice in 2018 with the first game having a very high total of 80 which went under and then the 2nd matchup the game flew over the total of 65 with a total of 97 points. We have two returning veteran QBs who both averaged over 9 yards per pass last season. We have two offenses that like to run fast-tempo with UCF ranking 1st in plays per game (and a TOP% of only 45%) and Memphis ranking 12th in plays per game. Both teams are running almost 10 more plays per game then last season (and last year they were already up-tempo). Both defenses have struggled in the secondary, with Memphis ranking 58th in team passing efficiency defense and have already given up 9 passing plays over 25 yards in their first two games (in only 89 pass attempts) . UCF’s secondary has been degressing over the last 3 games, really struggling last week against Tulsa and a horrible PFF coverage rating of 43.8. Both defenses also struggle with tackling ranking 55th and 32nd (against soft teams too). UCF’s biggest weakness on offense has been their offensive line, struggling to give Gabriel time to throw ranking 66th in pass blocking but the defensive line is not a huge strength of this Memphis defense ranking 47th in sack %. Both offenses love to throw the ball (over 50% of the time) and both offenses out-rank the defenses in every FEI, F+, and SP+ ranking scales. Both defenses have made the most of turnover opportunities as UCF is averaging 4 take-aways per game and Memphis 2.5 per game. Both offenses have struggled to protect the ball with UCF giving away 1.7 turnovers per game and Memphis 2.5. Let’s hope we get a couple of these turn-overs in short fields and not after an 80 yard drive but I think this one goes well over the total as both teams will look to run-up the score against their AAC rivals. The weather should be perfect football weather, 60 degrees, and 0 chance of rain.

Georgia +4.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Gerogia ML (+183) Risking .5 to win .92 units
I actually locked this in with my bookie at 7 before Saban got Covid but I didnt lock it in pickmonitor so I got the crappy number but figure you’re good and think UGA wins outright (will possibly add ML too). As good and explosive offenses have become in college football, the old adage runs true - defense wins games. And this Georgia has by far the best defense by the numbers and this Alabama defense has definitely taken a step back this season. According to F+ and SP+, UGA is ranked #1 on both scales - a rare feat. In FEI rankngs, they are ranked 2nd defensively, and 6th in points per drive, 2nd in available yards per drive and 4th in net yards per play. In contrast, Alabama’s FEI rankings are nowhere near as good, although they ranked 12th in FEI, their DPD ranks 55th, their DAY ranks 60th and DPP ranks 44th. Although Alabama’s offense ranks 1st in FEI, F+, and SP+, the most difficult defense they have faced was Texas A&M which has a crappy secondary themselves but are still much better than Missouri and Ole Miss’s defense, two teams Alabama heavily padded their stats against. Georgia is also in the top 10 of every defensive category that PFF grades, with Alabama not even in the Top 25 of ANY category. I love Stetson Bennett because he’s a smart game manager that doesnt give bad throws and can get yards on the ground too. I love this play and will most likely be adding the ML too closer to gametime as all the squares put their money on the bama ML.

UNC vs FSU Over 64 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I don’t think the bookies could put a number high enough for this shootout. FSU’s offense looks much better with Blackman finally benched and Jordan Travis starting. He was very accurate on his deep balls against Notre Dame and was able to do lots of damage with his legs too rushing for almost 100 yards. FSU’s biggest problem on offense is their offensive line and Travis was scrambling for his life against Notre Dame but I don’t expect that to be the case against this UNC front. UNC defensive line does have an 8.2 sack% ranking 21st in FBS but 7 of their 11 sacks on the season came in the first game against a piss poor Syracuse. Both defenses have struggled and UNC’s PFF tackling ranking is currently ranked 72nd even against the poor teams they have had lots of mis-tackles. Last week, FSU’s defensive line was getting gashed by Notre Dame as they ran for 353 yards and 8.4 yards per carry. North Carolina’s rushing attack is currently ranked #1 according to PFF and they should have a field day after rushing for 400 yards last week against Virginia Tech. I already talked a lot about Howell in my last write-up and he’s living up to the hype this season completing 70% of his passes and averaging 9.3 yards per pass. We continue to see point total records being broken every week as not having packed stadiums seems to be a clear advantage to offenses and it doesn't look like the bookies have fully adjusted to that yet. This should be an enjoyable over to bet as well as both offenses score at will.

Kentucky +6.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Kentucky/Tenn Under 45.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
These two coaches are very familiar with each other and I can’t believe I am locking in another under but this matchup and this Kentucky team specifically are a recipe for unders this season. I can’t believe the market continues to favor Tennessee and give no respect to Kentucky this season. Kentucky’s defense is one of the best in the SEC with it’s lockdown corners Brandon Echols and Kelvin Joseph who held Mississippi State's defense to 0 points last season. Their edge rushers often drop into coverage too and have racked up two INTs on the season. Their defense is ranked in the Top 25 of most important defensive categories including yards per rush (ranked 12th), opponent 3rd down % (ranked 19th), opponent yards per pass (ranked 19th) and red zone scoring (ranked 7th). Tennessee defense has also been tough this season, ranking 20th in yards per rush allowed, 35th in completion percentage allowed, and 34th in red zone scoring percentage. Kentucky loves to control the clock and run slow methodical offenses allowing their run game to break defenses down over time and not go for the big play. They don't have much of a deep threat with Terry Wilson throwing. I expect this outcome to be much like the last two years where the two teams combined for 30 and 31 points combined. Kentucky will be in a revenge spot though and I think they get some push up front in their run game like UGA did last week racking up almost 200 yards on the ground. Both teams struggle with the kicking game as neither kicker has hit over 50% of their kicks on the season. This is a rare game where I take the total and the side but I think its a safe bet and worth a wager.
 
Wow man. We really think alike sometimes. Don’t understand the drop but pitt/canes 3rd straight week I like pitt over.

love Uk +6.5 and lean under there too.,

gl brother
 
DapperDan said:
Nah, I tend to stick to power 5 and avoid the group of five unless something really stands out in the numbers

Pissed we got our cinn/tulsa game canceled!
Click to expand...

I missed the ga st game. Crazy game problem was all touchdowns so 3.5 never came into play. I did hit Tulane +7 and byu last night tho!! Gl today my friend. I’d talk more bout the others but I’m fixing to head over to casino!!!
 
2daBank said:
I missed the ga st game. Crazy game problem was all touchdowns so 3.5 never came into play. I did hit Tulane +7 and byu last night tho!! Gl today my friend. I’d talk more bout the others but I’m fixing to head over to casino!!!
Click to expand...

Haha, ya lets get it today bud. I hit tulane big too....that was one of those contrarian picks that I've gotten a lot better at figuring out (in the past I would have totally taken the bait at SMU) but almost every handicapper I knew had SMU.....SMU smashed Tulane by 17 last year, they are 4-0 against a 2-2 Tulane that got smashed last week and prime-time and the spread was only -6.5!!!! Problem is I can't come up with any write-ups for them. lol. I may start making them official picks soon and just label them "contrarian style"

Thinkinh about adding the over in Tex AM and Miss State. still digging. Got a late start as I'm on a little family vacation
 
I lean same way on the aggies/sip st game. I’ll prob use to close a parlay.,

thing with SMU IS they lost Roberson for the year in Memphis game. They got some other nice pieces but no beast like him to dominate the game. Thst wes difference for me. Waiting in line at book!!
 
Argh, Pickett is out! :-( Shoulda just bet MIAMI.

After digging into Miss St/Tex AM a bit more I decided to just take Miss State with the big upset.

Adding:
Mississippi State +4.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Mississippi State ML (+167) .5x Risking .5 units to win .84 units
The media is bombarding us with the struggles of Leaches air raid offense but there’s much reason to believe that this will be a different story this game. Unlike Kentucky last week, Texas A&M has one of the worst secondary's in the league ranking 71st in coverage rating and 63rd in tackling ratings, according to PFF. I think they will put up plenty of yards and points like they did against LSU where they threw for 623 yards and 44 points. More surprisingly when I looked into this game was the quality of defense Miss. State has had so far this season. They are ranked #9th in sack%, 21st in opponent yards per pass allowed, 4th in yards per rush allowed, 4th in 3rd down conversion %, and 25th in completion % compare that to A&M who are ranked 55th in sack %, 73rd in opponent yards per pass, 23rd in yards per rush allowed, 64th in 3rd down conversion % and 72nd in completion % allowed. By the numbers, it almost feels like the wrong team is favored based on an over-reaction to last week's games. Texas AM took advantage of a terrible UF secondary and barely squeaked out a win thanks to a few key mistakes by Florida at pivotal times. Mond is one of those QBs who puts up great numbers against the weaker teams but struggles against the better defenses and should be under pressure and make a couple mistakes. Mississippi State pulls off the upset and the ESPN pundits will be back to talking about how great this team is like they were after they upset LSU week 1.
 
I woulda put the god damn uk under in my 4 team round robin had I known!!! Since gambling legal and excepted now they should have to be forthright about fucking injuries. Cause this totally fuxks a bet, guess I should have known thst why line dropped when 49.5 was too low in 1st place!!
 
:cheers3: definitely thought that was busted after Pickett but thanks to Kings INTs we hit. Wish I pulled the trigger on Kentucky ML, nice 3-0 start and had to sweat a few out thanks to Kentucky scoring two defensive TDs
 
In case anyone wants FEI/F+/SP+ and Offensive/Defensive Line comparisons: Google Sheet
If a team is highlighted in blue in offensive/defensive line stats then I used are from last year (BIG 10 teams). Also I added Phil Steele's Experience rating for each team. The offensive line one is based on total starts of returning offensive line and the FEI/F+ one is based on overall team experience which Phil factors in total yards %, total tackles %, returning, etc.

Google Sheet

Not going to release any picks until tomorrow morning around 11 as I want to watch all the movement and lock in picks only after I see everything un-fold. Sometimes I like to lock some in early but those are the ones I've been getting buried on lately and have seen late line movements that could have swayed me off if I had waited.
 
Week 7: 4-6 (-2.37 units)
Season YTD: 19-27 (-9.28 units)

Week 8:
Louisville -6 (-109)
Iowa State +3.5 (-112)
Nebraska TT Over 19.5 (-146)
Rutgers +10.5 (-105)
Texas -10 (-112)
Missouri +3.5 (-107)
Northwestern -11 (-115)
SMU ML (-132)

Louisville -6 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Despite coming off 4 straight losses, I like Louisville to come out firing this week. Defensively Louisville seemed to turn a corner last week as they held an experienced Notre Dame team to only 12 points. Notre Dame’s offensive line is one of the biggest, most experienced groups in the country and they struggled giving up 5 sacks and 8 hurries to Louisville’s front. Their secondary avoided any mistakes and broken coverages which led to big plays (and resulted in losses) to Miami and Gtech. Their offensive line has also shown an improving trend each week in PFF grades in pass protection, and FSU’s pass rush hasn’t been particularly effective this season ranking 69th in PFF. FSU currently has 10 players recently added to their injury report including starting QB Jordan Travis (listed as probable) who gave their offense a spark last week against a very overrated UNC team. North Carolina beat themselves with poor play-calling last week constantly throwing wide-receiver screens and running the ball despite not much push. The few times they did throw deep they were able to complete 6 of 9 in passes of 20 yards+ but somehow only 6 for 11 in short passes. Surprisingly, Louisville’s defense is much better than FSU;s in almost every category including opponents completion % (ranking 16), sack % (22nd) and red zone scoring % (ranking 28th). Louisville has been careless with the ball which led to many of their losses giving up 11 turnovers in the first 4 games but last game they had 0 turnovers despite wet conditions against Notre Dame. This is a revenge match for Louisville as they lost the last two years to this ACC rival and they have a much more experienced team and established coaching staff. FSU caught UNC by surprise but Louisville will be prepared to blow FSU out a lot like Miami did in week 3 vs FSU. Louisville is also the more disciplined team (#37th) in penalties per plays vs (69th) and we have the better kicker making 80% of his FG attempts opposed to FSU’s kicker who has only made 66%.

Iowa State +3.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Im unimpressed with Oklahoma State’s body of work and think their #6 ranking is a little absurd. Sure they have some impressive numbers but that was beating up on the bottom of the Big 12 and Tulsa which isn’t saying much. Iowa State has redeemed themselves after losing their opener coming off 3 straight wins and showing a higher PFF grade in every game (in almost every category) with last games grading out to an 82.4 overall after beating down Texas Tech 31-15. The biggest question mark for Iowa State coming into the season was their offensive line as they ranked 122nd in experience charts but they are ranked in the top 25 of almost all FO line categories and are rushing for 5.2 yards per carry ranking 15th in the nation. Purdy rarely makes mistakes or takes sacks ranking 11th in the nation in sack% and only 1 INT on the year. Iowa State’s defense has shown that they are not just another BIG 12 push-over like most of their conference as they are only allowing 3 yards per carry on the season ranking 13th. The biggest concern for Oklahoma State will be their offensive line who despite playing 3 horrible teams, are ranked 70th in sack % allowed. Iowa State’s defense is great at applying pressure ranking 7th in the nation in sack %. Iowa State is also in a revenge spot here in this rivalry game where they lost last year even though they outgained and out possessed Oklahoma State last year controlling the ball for almost 60% of the game. Purdy will be looking for revenge as he gave up 3 INTs last year to Okie State including one for a TD that helped Okie State win by a TD.

Nebraska TT Over 19.5 (-146) Risking 1.46 units to win 1 units
Despite only scoring 7 points last year in this matchup, I really like Nebraska’s odds to put up 20+ points in this game. Almost their entire offense returns with 10 starters and I always liked Adrian Martinez (although he struggled with injuries last season) but he will have a short leash if he has a performance like he did last season throwing 3 INT’s against Ohio State. Frost is in his 3rd year of his system so he has no excuses and his offense should be explosive (and very fast paced) like they have been at all the other programs he has turned around. He brings in Matt Lubick, a friend he worked with back in Oregon as Co-OC and he brings a lot of knowledge and experience of working with great college coaches like Chris Peterson and Chip Kelly. Also what’s great about this pick is Ohio State only returns 4 starters on defense as well as for the 2nd year in a row getting a new DC, Kerry Coombs who will be his first ever job as a sole DC. Frost’s offenses have historically been too explosive and run so many plays that even if we are getting blown out I don't see how we don’t get at least 3 TDs and I think the point total will be closer to 2018 when Nebraska put up 31 points against Ohio State.

Rutgers +10.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
At first glance this game looks like a crapshoot between these two programs who are both undergoing major offseason changes but I like my odds with the better coaching staff and taking this many points. Schiano, one of the best defensive coaches in the league, returns to Rutgers and brings along a new OC Sean Gleeson who’s only experience at the FBS level was last year as OC at Oklahoma State where his offense ranked 30th in ypp. When Schiano was hired he went out of his way to poach Noah Vedral who saw some action last year at Nebraska when Martinez went down. On the other side Michigan State's program will see it’s first new head coach in 13 years, and Mel Tucker was only a head coach for the first time last year at Colorado where he struggled. Michigan State loses 5 of their top 7 tacklers, their starting QB, and it’s top 3 pass catchers from last year. They haven’t had a stand out QB in practice and we should see multiple QB’s if one of them starts to struggle. Michigan State’s offensive line has been a huge thorn in their side for the last two years and they are almost all returning this season (ranked 6th in o-line starts) so expect them to have issues facing one of the best defensive minds in the country. The public seems to be on Michigan State heavily yet the line continues to drop? The average gambler expects the same dumpster fire from this Rutgers program over the last few seasons, but this is a whole new coaching staff and coaching is everything at the college level so let's take the points.

Texas -10 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Baylor’s another team that seems to be overrated despite only playing two very cupcake teams in Kansas and West Virginia (and losing one). Their offense has struggled to run the ball and only got 27 yards in week 5 against WVU. Baylor's defense is very green with only two returning starters and 35% of their tackles returning. Texas should be able to score at will and I don’t think Brewer will be able to keep with Texas’s offense. I think the bookies know it too as despite Texas losing by 14 to Baylor last year they still made them 8 point favorites this season? The line has moved because lots of money is coming in on Texas (despite bookies moving line 21 points from results of last year) as it seems like a great spot to bet them after two losses. At the line of scrimmage, Texas’s offensive line is in the Top 20 of most offensive line categories including first in power success rate. Texas’s defense's biggest problem is mis-tackles but Baylor doesn’t have any big playmakers like Oklahoma that will make you miss. They have also struggled on special teams which is a big reason they lost the last two games rating below a 50 PFF grading. They’ve played two more games than Baylor and are coming off a bye week where Baylor has had two weeks off and only played two very soft teams and I think they are about to get a wake up call under new head coach Dave Aranada as they face their first explosive BIG 12 offense and Larry Fedora struggles to keep pace.

Missouri +3.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
I like this matchup a lot even though Kentucky has won 5 straight against Missouri and blowing them out last year. Last year's conditions were pouring rain which heavily affected Missouri's pass-happy offense. This year they have no coach Drinkwitz and exciting new redshirt Freshman Connor Bazelek who completed 85% of his passes for 12 yards per attempt, 400 yards, and 4 TD’s two weeks ago against LSU. They have had plenty of time to rest and prepare for the one dimensional Kentucky who just came off a huge emotional upset win last week yet still have Georgia to look ahead to next week. It’s no secret Terry Wilson struggles to throw the ball and Missouri will surely force them to beat them through the air. Missouri’s defensive line has proven more than capable holding LSU to only 49 yards on the ground last week and holding Alabama’s offense to only 111 yards on the ground on 36 carries in week 1. Kentucky doesn’t really have an offense outside of a run game that relied on Lynn Bowden Jr last year but he’s gone now and Wilson is half the athlete he was. Kentucky also will be missing starting nose tackle Quinton Bohanna and I think Missouri should be able to get some yards on the ground too. This is a whole new offensive scheme that Kentucky has little time to prep for and Kentucky is still running the same old bland offense it has for years now that relies on it’s defense and I think Missouri pulls off the upset but we’ll take the points even though the number has dropped significantly from the opener. With my bookie I bought a half point for -120 and you should too just to be safe.

Northwestern -11 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Despite coming off a 3-9 season last year I'm excited to see what this Northwestern team can do under new starting QB Peyton Ramsey who saw significant improvement from 2018 to 2019 and was ranked 24th last season in PFF for QBs. Northwestern has one of the most experienced teams returning ranking 2nd in Phill Steele's experience chart - opposed to Maryland who is ranked 114th in the experience chart. I have Maryland’s coaching staff as one of the lowest rated in the league between Locksley and Montgomery neither of which had any success on their own (Locksley piggybacked for 2 years as co-OC at bama which I guess got him this job). With 6 players opting out including their starting QB from last season Josh Jackson and two projected starters on the O-Line, I don’t see how this team will be prepared at all to face the experience of Northwestern and the one major thing that was holding Northwestern back last season was the QB play and thats replaced this year with a veteran starter so they may be a good team to ride after a 3-9 year. Cheers to the Big 10 being back.

SMU ML (-132) Risking 1.32 units to win 1 units
This is a true contrarian play as every third party tracking software I follow has handicappers picking Cincinnati (and early in week) at a much higher percentage than SMU. Cincinnati is 3-0 and has won handedly in each game but the hardest team they played was Army and their SOS is near the bottom of the league. Their starting QB Desmond Ridder has always struggled in seasons past with the offense and he had 3 INT’s last week against a terrible USF defense. Their offensive line has also struggled despite the soft schedule. SMU on the other hand has an explosive offense who has averaged 42 points per game in two years with Shane Buechele leading and I think they come up with a few big plays to pull off this win at home. It’s always nice when you know you're on Vegas’s side as this one my number one stand-out of one-sided bets so let's hope that stands true.
 
Week 8 Results: 6-2 (+3.2 units)
Season YTD: 25-29 (-6.08 units)

Week 9:
Wake Forest -14 (-104)
Illinois +7.5 (+101)
Northwestern +2.5 (-112)
Baylor +3 (-111)
Notre Dame -21 (-106)
Indiana/Rutgers Under 53 (-106)
Penn State +10.5 (-115) 1.5x
Penn State ML (+292) .5x
Virginia +7.5 (-109)

Wake Forest -14 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Always good to fade a 5th year senior QB, Rex Cullpepper, who’s only starting this season because the starter went down (DeVito) two games ago. More concerning for him is the tools he has around him that rank in the bottom of almost all PFF categories - (Receiving Rank: 92nd, Pass Block Rank: 69, Run: 73rd and Run Block Rank: 95th). Their defense is even worse - against Liberty the running lanes were so big you could drive a semi-truck through them. They were fortunate to only lose by only 17 to Liberty as they had two “key” turnovers (by key I mean either one that gives them an immediate redzone opportunity or one that takes a redzone opportunity for an opponent). Wake Forest’s offense can run and pass well with Sam Hartman at the helm as they ranked 5th in Pass grading PFF and 20th in Run grading PFF. Their receivers grade out to 9th including #1 Jaquarii Roberson who averages 13.8 yards per reception and catches 81% of passes thrown to him so far this season. Their biggest weakness is pass blocking where they rank 97th in sack rate % but the defensive line or the pass rush is not a strength of this Syracuse team ranking 76th in sack rate%. Wake Forest is riding high after 3 straight wins including a huge upset last week over Virginia Tech. They will look to seek revenge from last year's matchup with Syracuse where they lost in OT by 8, but that was two very different teams then.

Illinois +7.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Despite getting smashed their first game by Wisconsin (who will probably be the best defense in college football considering they were ranked 6th in ypp allowed last year and return 9 starters), and Purdue coming off the big upset to Iowa, I expect this one to be close for many reasons. Purdue has a new starting QB who made plenty of mistakes against Iowa throwing two picks (and should have been 4). Surprisingly we have a huge advantage at the line of scrimmage as Illinois, despite having only faced Wisconsin only allowed 3.4 yards per carry in their loss and averaged 5.2 yards per carry (Against Wisconsin!). Purdue on the other hand got dominated by Iowa at the line of scrimmage only rushing for 3.9 yards per carry themselves and allowing 5.4 yards per rush. For Illinois, we have a returning Junior starting QB with plenty of experience who despite struggling last week, should find a lot more soft coverage in this matchup against a Purdue defense that ranked 83rd in team passing efficiency defense last year. Last year when Illinois went to Purdue and smashed them 24-6 - they didn't even need to utilize Peters as their line dominated the game on both sides of the ball, racking up 242 yards on the ground on 53 carries and only allowing 135 yards on 44 carries to Purdue (and 8 TFLs). I think this line is set as an over-reaction to Week 1 and don’t see anyway how the end is not at least a one possession game in the end. Illinois has also always won their home openers - winning 23 straight and I think they may even get the upset here but we stay safe with the points in this one.

Northwestern +2.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Let’s see if this Northwestern team can come up with another big upset this week against division rival Iowa. These coaches are very familiar with each other as they have both been at their respective programs for decades now but I see lots of reasons why Northwestern pulls off the win this year despite getting beat 20-0 last season (with a horrible team, stemming from QB play). I already talked about how much I love Ramsey in my week 1 write-up but what I think will really give Iowa’s defense issues is the new offensive schemes of Mike Bajakian. He struggled last year at Boston College (taking over for Scott Loeffler what do you expect) and for two years at Tennessee back in 13-14, but he had a few good runs at Central Michigan and Cincinnati from ‘07-’12 before that. He has all the tools with this very experienced Northwestern team. Iowa’s offensive coordinator (the coaches son :eye roll:) on the other hand, is very bland, and predictable and relies on it’s rushing attack to open up the play-action game. Since he has taken over the play-calling duties in 2018 his offense has ranked 86th in ‘18 and 84th in ‘19 in ypp - those were with experienced QBs. This year he has unimpressive sophomore Spencer Petras who has very little in-game experience. Last week Iowa’s defensive line (that lost 3 starters from 2019) struggled only accrewing 2 sacks (on 50 attempts) and allowing 4 yards per carry against a Purdue team that loves to air it out. Northwestern is the exact opposite as they ran 63% of the time last week averaging 6.1 yards per carry against Maryland - a team that just upset Minnesota last night. I love this BIG 10 matchup and will be watching every second and think Northwestern comes out winning or it will be very close.

Baylor +3 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
This will be the 4th year, Charlie Brewer see’s this crazy TCU defense run by Gary Patterson/Glasgow, last year they squeaked out a win and I expect them to do the same this year. At the line of scrimmage we have an advantage on both sides of the ball as Baylor’s defensive line has been stellar this season ranking 34th in yards per carry allowed while TCU’s has been the opposite, allowing 5.2 yards per carry - ranking 85th. TCU’s offensive line that ranks 90th in career exp starts has struggled to protect Duggan who isn’t much of a quarterback - he ranks 78th in PFF grades. Although Brewer has struggled this season (ranking 147th) we hope he can return to top form like he was in 2018 and was ranked 11th amongst all FBS qbs. This is an unusual year for Baylor as it’s been their offense that has struggled and not their defense. Dave Aranada, new head coach for Baylor is one of the highest rated defensive coordinators I have with an A- rating after moving from Utah State to Wiscy to LSU, ranking his defense in top 10 in ypp in most seasons and was a Broyles award nominee at every school including at Utah State where they ranked 3rd in ypp allowed in 2012. On Offense, Larry Fedora took over the play calling duties and it seems like his offense is just adjusting a little and they should be able to open up the playbook in a game where they’re running for 5 yards per carry against a soft D-Line. Take the 3 points to be safe but I think we win this one outright too.

Notre Dame -21 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This is a very easy writeup. Notre Dame should dominate in all aspects of this game. In all FEI/F+ and SP+ categories, Notre Dame outranks Georgia Tech by an average of 54 ranks. Notre Dame’s defense also ouranks Gtech’s defense by 59 ranks. At the line of scrimmage, more of the same. Notre Dame with Ian Book leading know how not to turn the ball over ranking 8th in giveaways per game, while rookie Jeff Sims, continues to make stupid mistakes with the team averaging 3 giveaways per game. This will be the toughest defense Georgia Tech will have faced this season and I expect at least 3 turnovers as well as getting completely stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame ranks 24th in yards per rush allowed. This contrast in offense vs defense of these two teams is also huge on both sides of the ball in favor of Notre Dame on 3rd Down conversion %, points per play,, completion %, yards per pass - pretty much every statistical category, including penalties as this Notre Dame team is very disciplined ranking 18th in penalties per play while Gtech ranks 84th. There is no reason this game shouldn't be won by at least 20+!

Indiana/Rutgers Under 53 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Despite putting up 38 points last week, Rutgers offense was largely unimpressive and relied on 3 short-field take-aways from their defense for an easy 21 points. (6 over the entire game!)It won’t be so easy to come by against this tough Indiana defense who struggled a little last week but that was against one of the better offenses in the league. Although Schiano is there to lead the defense, it looks like this offense still needs some work. They are currently ranked 112th in F+, and 108th in SP+. Both offensive lines for these two teams have very few career starts ranking 109th and 120th. Rutgers currently sports some of the best defensive line numbers in the league having only their Michigan State numbers they are ranked 1st in line yards and 5th in stuff rating. Rutgers, despite only gaining 2.6 yards per carry last week against Michigan state were headstrong on sticking with it, milking the clock with the big lead and running the ball 56% of the time. Although Indiana loves to throw the ball I think they will try to run a bit more this week to alleviate some of the defensive pressure Schiano will bring if he continues to be in obvious passing downs. Indiana’s Penix struggled last week only completing 52% of his passes and 4.7 yards per pass - a number I expect to be very similar in this matchup as they are unable to get yards on the ground. If there’s ever an opportunity for an under in college football, this is one of them. Tom Allen (head coach for Indiana) has proved himself one of the better defensive minded coaches in the BIG 10.

Penn State +10.5 (-115) Risking 1.72 units to win 1.5 units
Penn State ML (+292) Risking .5 units to win 1.46 units
Can’t see why this number should be less than a one possession game so we feast on these points. Is the media really that impressed with this extremely new defense of the buckeyes last week to keep them ranked so highly still? F+ has them ranked as 4th and SP+ has them ranked 6th but I don’t know how that's possible based on Week 1 - these ratings seem to derive a lot from the year before but it shouldn’t do so with an Ohio State team that only returns 4 starters and a new unproven defensive coordinator, Kerry Coombs. Their defense rated poorly and below 60 in almost all PFF categories in Week 1 vs Nebraska (They should have given up a lot more than 17 points last week - we took the bad beat L on that one) This Penn State defense did look deserving of a Top 20 defense though, like all James Franklin/Brent Pry led defenses. Together they have probably one of the HIGHEST defensive yards per play allowed ranks over a very long period of time (and two programs) that you can’t deny the superiority of their defensive strategies. Over the past 9 years, they have an average ranking defense of 15th in yards per play allowed. That's absurdly good to be that consistent (lowest ranking 33rd and highest 3rd) over 9 years and we can safely assume this will be a top 20 Penn State defense with 63% of their tackles and 5 starters returning off a team that ranked 19th last year in ypp allowed). Ohio State's offensive line (this is ranked 87th in returning career starts) should struggle like they did week 1 against Nebraska giving up 3 sacks and grading 64.5 in pass blocking. Penn State's defense racked up 3 stats of their own last week and graded out to an 87.4 pass rush against Indiana. Just Fields, although he grades out to one of this highest rated passers, under pressure, his number dropped significantly with none of his categories rating over a 70 PFF rating and his HandeFumble grade was a horrible 25.7. Ohio State’s defense also gave up 5.8 yards per attempt last week against Nebraska where Penn State’s defensive line only allowed 1.6 yards per attempt. Ohio State also has 17 players listed as probable or questionable on their injury report so they will be very thin. This will be a very prepared Penn State defense and they'll be very pissed off after being robbed of a win by the refs last week and since Ohio State has beat them the last 3 years (but with the better team then) and two of those games were only by 1 point. This will be a close game no doubt so I want to lock in 1.5x for the points and think we have a chance to win outright so we snag the extra .5x on the ml.

Virginia +7.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
This is an awesome opportunity to take a 1 win team vs a 1 loss team I think. Virginia has struggled with injury to their starting QB Brenna Armstrong which largely affected the outcome of two of their games (NC State and Wake). Last week Armstrong was back but faced a very tough Miami defense but was still able to make some plays on the ground and threw the air (unlike Lindell did the previous two games). Virginia has one of the best offensive lines so far this season ranking in the top 20 of almost every offensive line category including 10th in line yards and 10th in opportunity rate. They should be able to get any short down and distance against a UNC front that has been full of holes ranking 92nd in line yards and 79th in opportunity rank. Sam Howell is great in a clean pocket but has struggled under pressure and Virginia is one of the best at bringing pressure ranking 24th in sack rate %. UNC heavily relies on it’s run game, ranking 30th in rush play % and this will be their toughest front yet as Virginia has only allowed 3.3 yards per carry on the season. We are also the much more disciplined team as UNC is near the bottom of penalties per play ranking 89th and Virginia ranks 17th. If the day goes well I may even sprinkle some on the ML here because if FSU can beat this UNC team, then this Virginia team certainly could.
 
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