Season YTD: 65-60 (+1.23 units)
Bowl Adds:
Tulsa ML (-123)
Georgia -6.5 (-111)
Northwestern -3 (-111)
Tulsa ML (-123) Risking 1.23 units to win 1 units
The one non-power 5 team I’m betting against a power 5 team this bowl season. I think we have great value in this one and the only thing that's giving Miss. State some clout is the SEC name. Despite the softer schedule, Tulsa is hands down the better defensive unit - they currently rank 12th in overall defense, 6th in coverage, and 25th in run defense (according to PFF). This is one of the largest PFF mismatches on paper as Miss State ranks 121st on offense, 96th in passing, 116th in receiving, 75th in rushing and 115th in run blocking. If you average the stat categories together, Tulsa out-ranks them by 93 ranks on defense. In tackling, they are way better than Miss. State as they rank 13th in PFF while Miss State ranks 97th. On the FEI side of the stats (which tries to factor in SOS), we have more of the same gross mismatches for Miss State’s offense as they rank in the bottom 15% of almost all categories and Tulsa’s defense is in the top 20 of almost all categories. Although Miss State’s defense outranks Tulsa’s offense in most FEI categories, the differential is much smaller. (almost half) Tulsa’s defense is also very good on 3rd down and in the red zone (a coaching metric) ranking 15th in 3rd down conversion percentage and 20th in red zone scoring %, an area where Leach’s new offense has struggled ranking #115th in 3rd down conv% and 106th in red zone scoring %. By the numbers, this looks like an awesome bet and almost locked in for 2 units but decided to leave as just one as all bowl bets this year.
Georgia -6.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Oooh unlike when UCF faced Auburn in 2017 undefeated and slighted from the playoffs, these teams match up very differently and that memory of American vs SEC bowl upset is fresh in the oddsmakers (and public's mind) giving us some value in this line. You have to scroll pretty far down in PFF’s QB positional rankings to find 3rd year starting junior Desmond Ridder who currently ranks 131st out of all QBs. He has notoriously struggled in the HandsFumble category and although his current crappy ranking is an improvement from last seasons 170th ranking, it’s probably just due to the weaker SOS this season. In contrast Georgia has had JT Daniels return the last 3 games of the season and he’s been lights out (all-be it against soft defenses) he currently ranks 4th out of all QBs and 92.7 passer rating and a 72.7 hands fumble rating. Georgia’s athleticism will be noticeably better at every position and not just QB. At the line of scrimmage, despite the weak schedule of the bearcats (line yards don’t factor in SOS), Georgia outanks Cinn significantly in almost all categories as Cincinnati hasn’t been that great at running the ball, with a line yards ranking of 85th, opportunity rank of 98th and power success rank of 109th. They rank 55th in rushing and 81st in run blocking according to PFF and the most difficult opponent they’ve faced by far is Tulsa with the 2nd most difficult being Memphis? Georgia’s defensive line ranks 5th in run defense, 18th in coverage, 2nd overall, and 1st in tackling - against opponents like Alabama, Florida, and Auburn. Cincinnati’s defense is 1st overall according to PFF, but PFF doesn’t factor in SOS so the numbers are a bit tainted. If Tulsa’s offense averaged 4.5 yards per carry in CIncinnati's last game, I see no reason why UGA won’t be able to average 5 yards per every carry with a PFF ranking of 8th in rushing and 9th in run blocking. This should be a blow-out and a reminder to all the group of 5 conferences that they need to schedule more difficult opponents from here on out (of course this year they couldn't because covid killed so many players)
Northwestern -3 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
One of my favorite teams all season against my least favorite team to watch in the SEC. I could imagine things will only get worse for this Auburn offense that struggled against tough defenses as Malzahn was fired, which makes absolutely 0 sense to me as this was the first year (and covid year!) that Malzahn and Morris were re-united, two of the greatest offensive minds in the league but didn't have the talent at QB, as Bo Nix is not a winning caliber QB and I'm sure got a leg up over any competition just due to the fact his dad was an Auburn alumni and Auburn wanted to sell the legacy story (and they did- big!). But that doesn't win games and Bo Nix can’t win games against good defenses. When pressured, he backpedals like a frightened school girl and disrupts all timing with any receivers. This Northwestern defense will be one of the best teams Auburn has faced as they are ranked 2nd in D-FEI, 2nd in Defensive efficiency, 2nd in defensive points per drive allowed, 12th in defensive available yards percentage, 5th in defensive drive yards per play, and 1st in defensive touchdown rate. PFF shows their coverage has been excellent ranking 4th in the league and they rank 3rd in completion % allowed and 1st in opponent yards per pass. Unlike NW, Auburn’s defense has been battling injury and covid protocols and have struggled all season long. They are ranked 98th in overall defense, 53rd in coverage, and 117th in run defense, and NW loves to run the ball with a rush play % of 56%. Northwestern is also the much more disciplined team, ranking in top 15 of all penalty categories, and we have a strong edge in special teams as NW ranks 34th in PFF special teams and Auburn ranks 81st. I think NW wins in a 24-17 type game.
