Dapper Dan Picks - Season Long NCAAF Thread

Week 9 Results: 4-5 (-1.45 units)
Season YTD: 29-34 (-7.53 units)

Week 10:
Ball State ML (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Rarely do I take these Wednesday night MAC games but I see some value here on the slight underdog. In last year's matchup, Ball State dominated the game and controlled the line of scrimmage, more than doubling the yardage total that the RedHawks accumulated. On 3rd and 4th down, Ball State converted 14 of 24 attempts while Miami only converted 2 of 14 attempts. Ball State ran for 261 yards on the ground and held Miami to only 107 yards. Ball State won by 14, but should have won by a larger margin due to two blocked punts, one going for a touchdown and one setting up the offense on the 10 yard line. Ball State made all the right adjustments throughout the game as they were down 24-7 at one point, before coming back and winning 27-41. Ball State has 17 returning seniors making them one of the most experienced teams returning. Miami returns 10 starters on offense, but that's not always a good thing when the offensive line was such a big issue last season. They ranked 122nd in line yards, 117 in opportunity rank, 114th in Power Success Rank, and 123rd in Stuff Ranking, and 98th in sack rate allowed - undoubtedly one of the worst units in the country. Miami will also be without their two leading rushers last season that combined for 85% of their yardage on the ground. Miami, under Chuck Martin, has notoriously come out soft in the beginning of the season only getting 6 wins in the month of September since 2014 and losing 22 games. This may be a close one but in the end Ball State should make the right adjustments to win this one.
 
Think I’m just gonna leave the maction alone tonight, caught me off guard and honestly don’t feel like trying to deal with it, lol. Gl buddy
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 29-35 (-8.67 units)

Week 10 adds:
BYU -3.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
BYU will look to make a statement in this game as they look to continue their undefeated season (averaging 44.4 pts per game and allowing only 13.4 ppg) . They currently sport the 9th best Spread +/- differential at +11.4 as they have been undervalued most of the season going 5-2 ATS. Boise is 2-0 ATS on the season but they have had two very weak opponents ranking 90th in the GLS rank (strength of schedule scale). Boise is very inexperienced and ranks 110th in experience charts as they have very few starters returning. Starting QB, Hank Bachmeier from last season sat out last week with an assumed COVID positive although the ailment has been undisclosed (disclosed someone on the team got it but not who!) He will most likely be out again this week although he’s officially listed as questionable. Backup graduate transfer Jack Sears will most likely get the nod against BYU and although he had some great numbers in his first start ever - it was against a very soft coverage in Air Force where he had guys wide open down the field - including an easy pitch and catch 75 yard TD on the first play of the game. I think the biggest advantage in this one is at the line of scrimmage, as Boise was getting gashed last week by Air Force on the ground after stud defensive lineman and leader Demetri Washington got hurt and will be out for the remainder of the season. Boise State was already having to replace several defensive linemen this season before the injury and they should have issues with this BYU front that is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Boise’s offensive line should struggle too as BYU’s defensive line is ranked one of the better D-Line’s in the nation ranking in the Top 25 of almost all FO defensive line categories and have only allowed 3.1 yards per carry on the season. I think BYU wins this one easily, I bought it down to -3 with my bookie although for tracking purposes I’m using pickmonitor so I couldn’t buy the half but still comfortable and think BYU gets an easy win.

Nebraska +4 (-116) Risking 1.16 units to win 1 units
Betting against my wild-cats this week but I think Nebraska matches up well and this should be a close one possession game like it has been the last two years when these two coaches have faced off. Wild-cats are coming off two big wins but that was the easy part of their schedule and they have a few really tough opponents coming up with no days off thanks to the moron group known as “The league’s Council of Presidents and Chancellors” who decided to postpone the BIG 10 season until end of October due to Covid. Nebraska is coming off a bye week after getting smashed week 1 against Ohio State but despite the lopsided score - Nebraska’s offense was able to move the ball effectively (and better than Penn State could last week). Their defense was able to put tons of pressure on Justin Fields in week 1 despite getting beat deep they were able to get 3 sacks on only 21 pass attempts. Northwestern has 34 players listed on their injury report as questionable - a number that would normally look very strange but this is 2020. Will Scott Frost’s offensive scheme finally get in sync in his 3rd year with all the tools in place? I think so, so we take the points and I think Nebraska may even win outright.

Michigan -3 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Despite coming off a hard loss to in-state rival Michigan State last week (a very under-rated team), I think Michigan wins big in this BIG 10 matchup where Michigan has NEVER lost to Indiana in the course of history. Indiana has covered though 4 of the last 6 (1 push) and the fact that Indiana is coming off two big upset wins I believe we are getting a little value from this line. The biggest mismatch in this one again will be at the line of scrimmage, as Indiana has been a very one dimensional offense this season that gets very little push in the ground game as they only average 2.2 yards per carry in their first two games only getting 109 yards in last weeks matchup vs Rutgers. Their pass blocking PFF ranks 111th out of 115 teams, Their run blocking ranks 91st. You don’t want to face Don Brown with a one dimensional offense as he’s proven one of the best coordinators in the game and will take advantage of the mismatch at the LOS and bring lots of heat when Indiana is put in obvious passing situations. Despite losing last week, Michigan has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in it’s first two games and should get some push against Indiana who has allowed 4.36 yards per carry against inferior offensive lines in Penn State and Rutgers. Michigan has also protected the ball well and have yet to have a give-away on the season. Michigan curb stomps Indiana and brings this team back down to reality.
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 30-35 (-7.67 units)

Week 10 Adds:
Texas -5.5 (-106)
Mississippi State -18 (-107)
Florida +2.5 (+106)
Stanford +7.5 (-104)
UCLA -5.5 (-104)
Tennessee -1 (-104)

Texas -5.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
I had to do a double-take after looking at Texas’s defensive numbers as they have surprisingly shown up so far this season unlike years past in Texas, which probably has a lot to do with the new hire at DC, Chris Ash - who despite having a rough stint as head coach at Rutgers, led one of the best defenses in the nation for two years at Ohio State in 2014-15. They are ranked 33rd in D-FEI, and 42nd in F+, and although WVU’s defense is ranked 16th and 19th in those same two categories, when you consider their SOS, Texas looks to have the better defense. Texas’s has already faced many of the tougher offenses in the BIG 12 where W. Virginia has had a much easier first few games and lost to the only two tough teams they played, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State - two teams that Texas won by 7 against.This will be the hardest test for a West Virginia offensive line who has struggled so far this season, ranking 84th in line tards, 91st in opportunity rank, 73rd in Power Succes Rank, and 50th in stuff ranking. Texas’s defensive line in contrast ranks 7th in line yards, 16th in opportunity rank, 43rd in power success and 13th in stuff ranking. It’s safe to assume we have a strong advantage in the trenches here. Texas should win big here and I think Sam Elhringer will put up huge numbers against a defense he has already faced 3 times in his career.

Mississippi State -18 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
No write-up on this one Sorry guys.

Florida +2.5 (+106) Risking 1 unit to win 1.06 units
The numbers are basically equal in this game but I think the eye test in this one points heavily to Florida’s favor. Mainly the big advantage at starting QB, as Kyle Trask has proven to be one of the better QBs in the league (especially with those weapons) and Stetson Bennett has nowhere near the experience on the big stage. THe PFF rankings agree as Trask ranks out to a passer in 80’s ratings while Bennett rates in the 70’s. Under Pressure, although the gap isn’t that big according to PFF (52nd vs 63rd), Trask appears to be the much better passer too as he has that hard to measure, Roethlisberger factor where he can hang in the pocket well, improvise, buy time and get rid of the ball only at the last moment. My biggest concern for this game was Florida’s defense but they showed significant improvement last week after having two weeks off and true to a Todd Grantham defense. Georgia's defensive line has definitely taken a step back this season as they rank 51st in line yards, 92nd in power success rate, and 97th in stuff rankings. Numbers a strong Florida offensive line that ranks in the Top 20 of all categories including 1st in power success rank should fully take advantage of. Florida should be able to get 4 yards on the ground at any time considering the mismatch in these numbers. Combine that with their play-making receivers and passing game and I think they come up with enough to win this rivalry game where Georgia has not only won, but covered the last 3 years - setting up some value on this significantly better UF team (and significantly worse UGA team then last years’ squad). Again this is one where my bookie I was able to buy to 3 but pickmonitor currently has only + odds on the +2.5. Obviously take the 3 to be safe if you can.

Stanford +7.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
I’ll take my chances with the much more experienced team ( 61st vs 115th on exp chart) with the more established coaching unit, with this many points all day - even in week 1. I think it’s a great spot to jump on considering the down year Stanford had which if you look back at their history under Shaw definitely seems to be an anomaly. Oregon has only 4 returning starters on offense and 4 on defense (originally supposed to have 8 returning on defense but 4 opted out of season) This will be a very new team on both sides of the ball and I expect this one to be a close one possession game but who knows, maybe Stanfords experience sets them up for the big upset in Week 1.

UCLA -5.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
This is another game I like in Week 1 (for PAC) where you have the much more established team and coaching program against a team that’s undergoing a “transition” year. For the third year straight, Colorado is getting a whole new coaching staff and unlike last years, this one is even greener than the one before. On offense, they only have 6 returning starters and have to replace starting QB Steven Montez. Sam Noyer is now the starter, a QB who Mel Tucker moved to defense to play Safety last year. He was going to try to transfer but after seeing Tucker leave he decided to stick around and earned his way back to the starting QB position (and offense). I don’t think this bodes well to his abilities to play QB. On the other side you have UCLA’s Chip Kelly program entering it’s 3rd year with plenty of returning starters, including dynamic QB Darius Thompson-Robinson. The team around him ranks 63rd in experience charts opposed to Colorado’s team that ranks 110th. Let’s hope UCLA’s defense improves this season as that was the biggest problem with their team last year but I think Colorado’s offense will shoot themselves enough times in the foot to not keep up with UCLA.

Tennessee -1 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Despite losing 3 straight I love Tennessee in this spot. The numbers at the line of scrimmage show huge advantages for Tennessee on both sides of the ball. Their offensive line that ranks 11th in experience and returning starts, outranks Arkansas’s defensive line by an average of 30 rankings across all categories. They are just outside the Top 25 while Arkansas’s defensive line remains in the bottom 25% of most categories. Tennessee’s defensive line should have the same mismatch as they outrank them in every category as well and by an average of 38 ranks. Another big factor in why I love this spot is the fact that Tennessee is 1-3 ATS and Arkansas is 5-0 ATS so I think the odds-makers have over-adjusted this line to a pick'em to factor in the current market value of each team (Arkansas at all-time high at 5-0)
 
Week 10 Results: 2-8 (-6.69 units)
Season YTD: 31-42 (-14.22 units)

Week 11:
Iowa vs Minnesota Under 58 (-109)
TCU +3 (-109)
Wake Forest +13.5 (-110)
Ole Miss -7 (-112)

Iowa vs Minnesota Under 58 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
It literally hurts me to take an under in 2020 as the effects of an empty stadium have had a drastic impact on the game and totals specifically. Last year, unders hit at a 48% rate (according to TeamRankings) and a Total +/- differential (for all teams combined) of +5.2. This year although overs have only been hitting at a slightly higher 52% clip, the total +/- differential for all teams is 177! A number that is significantly higher than any other season in the history of record-keeping - expect oddsmakers to adjust totals accordingly (and they have been). Despite all that this is a rare gem of an under due to several factors. Expect both teams to pound the rock and drain the clock. Minnesota currently ranks #10 in rush play % and will continue to stick with that game plan while Iowa should follow suit as in the first two games this season, they had an abnormally high amount of passes throwing 90 times in two games (and subsequently lost) but last week went back to their run heavy offense and were able to control the game like they usually do and use their defense to win. They are a very conserative team especially with the lead so you won’t see the absurd 4th down attempts that plague the league this year once getting to the 50 yard line (coaches be like fuck it - worlds ending). Iowa’s proven to be one of the best run-stopping teams in the country only allowing 2.6 yards per rush on the season and although Minnesota has put up big numbers on offense so far this season averaging 36 points per game, they were against 3 piss poor defenses in Illinois, Maryland, and Michigan (quite a surprise this season). Iowa’s defense is in the Top 20 (even Top 10) in almost all FEI categories as that's the standard in Iowa and the coaches know how to coach defense. Although Minnesota’s defensive numbers are pretty horrible on the season - expect them to improve this week getting to face an Iowa offense that has struggled to adjust to it’s new parts and is ranked in the bottom 10% of all FEI categories. Both coaches are very familiar with each other having played each other's teams the last 3 years, two of which went under the total and I expect that to be the case again in this game.

TCU +3 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
The numbers for these two teams are pretty equally matched with both defenses being the strength of these teams except one largely impactful number with a huge imbalance. Sagarin’s strength of schedule has TCU’s SOS ranked 18th to date so far opposed to West Virginia who has a 74th SOS. This is a huge disparity especially this season since the conferences are not inner-mingling. West Virginia has feasted on the bottom of their conference while TCU has had a much tougher road to date. TCU is also the much more experienced team ranking 5th in experience charts while WVU ranks 71st. WVU loves to throw the ball (ranked 15th in pass play %) and Gary Patterson’s TCU’s defense are designed to stop the pass and have some of the better corners in the BIG 12 (although this year they have struggled - but against this was against much better passing offenses than WVU). As bad as TCU’s offense is when you factor in SOS, like FEI does, they outrank WVU offense in most categories. West Virginia’s defense sports a great 3.4 yards per rush attempt allowed, but those numbers are heavily padded against their weaker opponents and against Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State that allowed almost 5 yards per carry. West Virginia has won and covered the spread the last two years in this matchup including a big upset last year as a 14 point dog. Rarely do you see these conference rival games have one team cover and win 3 years straight and I like TCU to pull off the upset this week.

Wake Forest +13.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I don’t see how this is not a one possession game as UNC is inconsistent as they come on offense and their defense has struggled heavily in every game where they faced a halfway decent offense. This Wake Forest offense is ranked 34th in O-FEI and it all stems from veteran QB Sam Hartman who despite not having explosive numbers doesn’t make the crucial mistakes being one of the QBs who has yet to throw an INT on the season. UNC is dealing with quite a few injuries, including starting center Brian Anderson who is listed as questionable after being knocked out of the game last week and their backup center Ty Murray got a season ending injury in his relief so they will be very thin on the offensive line. Last year when these two teams faced off Wake Forest outgained UNC by over 100 yards and were favored by 3 and won by 7. This is a huge in-state rivalry game and has a lot of meaning for the ACC as Wake Forest looks to continue their 4 game win-streak after losing their first two so I don’t see how this game doesn’t come down to the last score and worst case we get an easy back door against soft-coverage with this many points. I bought to 14 with my bookie.

Ole Miss -7 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Locked this number early before the big move. If you can get under 10 I think it’s still good. Ole Miss is one of those offenses that puts up huge numbers against poor defenses but struggles against the better defense. They should score at wil against South Carolina’s defense that has been horrendous this season and yes Ole Miss’s defense has been bad too but South Carolina’s offense is bad enough to shoot themselves in the foot and not keep pace with the high-powered Ole Miss offense. Last week they finally benched starting QB Collin Hill after going 8 for 21 for 66 yards against the aggies but Hillinski is not much better and expect both of them to get some snaps this week.South Carolina has 8 players newly listed on their injury report (most from their defense) and have 14 players who were on their roster at the beginning of the season but are now listed as out so they are definitely shorthanded. Despite losing the few times I’ve backed this team so far this year I think they pull off the big win.
 
Week 11 Adds: (had like 4 other games I loved canceled so light card not going to force)
Rutgers -5.5 (-109)
Tulsa ML (-106)
Oregon vs Wash St over 57.5 (-105)
Oregon State +14 (-111)

Rutgers -5.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1units
Illinois has been decimated by injuries this season (including starting and backup QB) and have yet to be in a close game this season. The only game they were within 7 points was against Purdue where we fortunately caught a backdoor. Rutgers has only won 1 game themselves but their 3 opponents were much better than Illinois (especially considering how bad Minnesota got beat last night). Illinois FEI ratings agree and they have an average ranking of 96th on offense amongst all FEI ratings and average 105th on all defense FEI ratings. At the line of scrimmage, Rutgers presents more mismatches as Illinois defensive line ranks 107th in line yards and 105th power succes rank. Rutgers defensive line ranks 26th in line yards and 35th in Power Success rate outranking Illinois offensive line by an average of 75 ranks for the two categories. Rutgers offensive line should be able to get 2 yards at any time on 3rd or 4th down (the metric that Power Success Rate measures) as Rutgers offensive line ranks 1st in that category while Illinois defensive line is ranked 110th at stopping it. Rutgers under Schiano defends the run well (ranks 29th in yards per rush allowed) and that's what Illinois prefers to do considering all their injuries at QB they ranked 39th in run play percentage. Rutgers is also ranked 5th in TFLs despite the gruesome BIG 10 schedule to date. Illinois defense has been horrible allowing opponents to convert of 60% of 3rd downs, ranking #122 in the league. Let’s take the better defense as I think they show up big as this is a huge game for Rutgers to bring the team back up to 2-2 and keep the players believing in the program turn-around that should happen now under Schiano.

Tulsa ML (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This is a revenge match for Tulsa where they lost in a very disappointing fashion last year giving up 21 points in the fourth qtr and losing in OT. They dominated the game averaging more than 1.7 yards per carry more than SMU and averaging 1.0 yard per pass more too but gave up 3 turnovers which was the deciding factor in the game. SMU also relied on converting 6 of 7 fourth downs in order to achieve the miracle come-back win. Tulsa surprisingly has a really good defense this year, ranked in the Top 25 of almost all D-FEI categories. Their defensive line has been the real strength and they rank in the top 10 of almost all defensive line categories and have only allowed 3.5 yards per rush. SMU sports some great numbers on offense but their defense has really struggled ranking in the bottom half of the league in most categories including allowing 4.9 yards per carry and ranking 85th in coverage according to PFF. Tulsa has also had a much stronger SOS as Sagarin has them ranked 57th opposed to SMU who is ranked 99th.

Oregon vs Wash St over 57.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Finally, I have decided to start taking some overs based off the numbers. Not sure why I have rarely been taking overs in college football but it’s clear there are plenty of good spots this season in every conference. PAC 12 has yet to play much and I expect their conference to continually to be much of the same, high scoring and no defense (a few good). After beating down on Stanford last week Oregon sits in the top 10 of almost all FEI categories as they continued to drive down the field time and time again with ease under new QB Shough, who looked really good and confident in his 3rd year at the program. Washington State offense did the same against Oregon State and are ranked in the Top 20 of most offensive FEI categories. Oregon was very fortunate to give up as few points as they did to Stanford as they must have missed around 13 field goals. Both Oregon and Washington State’s offensive line crushed it in week 1 as they are ranked 3rd and 2nd in line yards and in the Top 10 of most O-line categories. Both defense lines were near the bottom of the league in most rankings with Washington State being the worst of the two ranking 113th in line yards and 117th in opportunity rate. Oregon’s defensive line gave up 6.4 yards per carry and didnt record a sack. Let’s sit back and enjoy an over for once as blown coverages, 60 yard plays, and trickery are the norm in the PAC 12.

Oregon State +14 (-111) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I like our chances in this one with this many points for 3rd year head coach Jonathan Smith who is a great offensive coordinator coincidentally at Washington from 2014-2017 before coming to Oregon State so the coaches are familiar with each other. At Washington, Jonathan Smith turned the program around on offense, in his first year, they ranked 83rd in ypp, 2nd year, ranked 52nd, in his 3rd year they improved all the way to 11th in ypp. Oregon State is on the same trajectory as they struggled in his first year ranking, 114th, but improved dramatically year two ranking 68th, and here we are about to enter year three in his program. The defense also dramatically improved last year under Tim Tibesar, shaving off almost 12 points per game allowed than the year prior. Despite losing last week, Tristan Gebbia looked good completing 70% of his passes for 7 yards per pass. At Washington, we have a whole new program as Peterson left and they are ranked 122nd in experience charts with only very few starters returning. They have yet to play a game due to cancellation last week. I think the fact that Washington has historically beat Oregon State 8 straight years is driving this high number but when you factor in the inexperience of Washington and the fact that they will be implementing a whole new offensive scheme and are one game behind, I think this is just too many points so we take the late night big dogs (maybe sprinkle ML if day goes well)
 
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Week 11 Results: 6-2 (+3.82 units)
Season YTD: 37-44 (-10.4 units)

Week 12:
LSU ML (-134)
Iowa ML (-124)
Missouri -6.5 (-114)

LSU ML (-134) Risking 1.34 units to win 1 units
Arkansas sits at 6-1 ATS under new head coach Pittman and as impressive as they have been I think they are in for a surprise in this one as most people are overlooking LSU after bad losses to Miss. State week 1 and getting smashed by Auburn in their last game 3 weeks ago. Also contributing is the fact that Myles Brennan is hurt, but I think I like 6’6 backup true freshman TJ Finley even better than Finley after his first two games, despite not great numbers, he looked very promising as he has a quick release, tight spiral, and big arm. He’s big and won’t kill you with his legs but he is capable of maneuvering around the pocket better than your average sized QB. He’s got good timing with his receivers and last game, they were interchanging Max Johnson who sputtered some of their drives out but Finley seems to be the clear cut favorite now so hopefully they won’t bring in Max at all and kill their offensive momentum. They were driving up and down the field on Auburn despite few points to show for it. LSU’s defense put up much improved PFF grades despite getting beat 48-11. Their defense has really struggled with tackling the play-makers but Arkansas doesn’t have many of those and LSU players should be the better athletes on both sides of the ball. A big critique of Feleipe Franks, going back to his Florida days was his inability to handle pressure well, and LSU should be able to get plenty of pressure on him as their defense is ranked 27th in sack % and Arkansas’s offensive line is ranked one of the league worst 110th in sack % allowed. I think LSU wins big and reminds the nation who won the national title last year.

Iowa ML (-124) Risking 1.24 units to win 1 units
No reason to over-think this one. Iowa is the much better team on both sides of the ball then Penn State and should win this one easily. I think what's driving the low spread is the fact that Penn State has won 6 straight against Iowa and covered the last two years. At the line of scrimmage we have significant edges on both sides of the ball with Iowa’s offensive line outranking Penn State’s defensive line by an average of 67 ranks between Power Success Rank, Stuff Ranking, and Sack Rank. On defense, Iowa also outranks Penn State’s offensive line in every line yards category including huge mismatches in power success and sack ranking where Penn State has struggled ranking 89th in sack % and Iowa ranks 41st. The FEI stats show this will be a significant challenge for Penn State’s offense as Iowa is ranked in the Top 10 of almost all FEI categories. Sean Clifford has struggled all season long (against weaker defenses than Iowa) and is currently ranked 112th amongst QBs according to PFF (amongst QBs with significant pass attempts). Although Petras is only slightly better with a ranking of 103rd, he is a graded out to a much better runner and doesn't make mistakes like Clifford has notoriously done throughout his career. This year Clifford has a 55 rating in hands fumble PFF grades, a slight improvement from last years 51 rating but a stark contrast from rookie game manager Spencer Petras who rates out to a 76 rating runner (13th best) and 74.4 hands fumble grade - a perfect well coached fit for Iowa and Kirk Ferentz’s offense. Penn State has also struggled to find the right plays in the red zone and short fields, as they have only scored on a 57% of red zone visits (ranking 126th) - an area where Iowa has defended well this year (and most years) ranking 28th in red zone scoring % on defense only allowing points in 75% of red zone trips. Iowa wins this revenge matchup they have circled going into Penn State after falling to this team every year since Franklin took over!

Missouri -6.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
A firing of a coach can sometimes bring improvement to a team mid-season but I don’t think that’s going to happen with this South Carolina team and they may be a good team to fade for the remainder of the year. Both starting corners, who were NFL draft prospects and starting safety have decided to opt out this week since the firing. They’ve also lost other key defensive starters due to injury and I don’t see how Missouri doesn’t put up 40+ against this dilapidated defense. South Carolina’s defense has been getting crushed by short 5 yard passes and slants all year that end up going for 25+ due to poor defensive positioning and tackling. Drinkwitz offense should put up big numbers and it may be a good idea to bet the TT over as although they have modest numbers to date that is not common for a Drinkwitz offense who has ranked in the Top 25 of yards per play each of the last two seasons at two different programs, NC State and Appalachian State. Starting QB for South Carolina, Collin Hill has struggled to get the offense going and his numbers are pretty similar to his last four games he started in 2018 where he started in relief of KJ Carta Samuels at Colorado State and averaged only 18.5 points per game (against bad teams) and threw for 6 TD and 6 INTs (same as this year except he has those crap numbers in 7 games) In last years matchup we saw Missouri’s defense score twice in a 34-14 beat down of the Gamecocks and we can expect a similar final result in this one.
 
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Thanks BAR! I'm loving this weeks card and think we are due for a BREAKOUT week!

Good LUCK EVERYONE!

Week 12 Adds:
Pittsburgh +3 (-106)
Pittsburgh ML (+124) .5x
California -2.5 (-114)
Oklahoma -7 (-112)
USC/Utah over 57.5 (-111)

Pittsburgh +3 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh ML (+124) Risking .5 to win .62 units
I love betting these teams where great defensive coordinators branch off to become head coaches and turn around programs into defensive powerhouses. That is what Narduzzi (from Michigan State) has done here. The year before Narduzzi arrived the Panthers defense was a typical crappy ACC defense ranking 88th in yards per play allowed in 2014. And although it took him a few years for his aggressive defensive mentality to take to the program, it has really shined the last two years, ranking 4th in yards per play allowed in 2019 and this year ranking 11th so far. His ability to predict offenses play calls is unlike any others as his teams are always great at stopping the run and applying pressure in the pass game at the same time. They are currently allowing 2.4 yards per carry (ranked #2) on defense and sacking QBs at a 13.21% (ranked 3rd) those are insanely good numbers in 7 games (not counting FBS week 1) against tough offenses including Notre Dame, Miami and Louisville. Hooker is a great runner but 1 dimensional as the hokies throw only 37% of the time - a bad recipe against a defensive guru. Pitt’s offense numbers are horrible but Pickett was injured a few games and his backup put up a pathetic 11 points per game in his relief and attributed to all the poor FEI metrics. I always look for the much stronger defensive team and try to take them with points and this is a great spot for that - we also take the ML as I really like this bet and want to avoid the heavy 1.5 unit curse as this is not a true 1.5 but a 1 and .5, two completely different things.

California -2.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Not going to lie, I completely missed the fact that UCLA played Cal last Sunday and it’s probably for the best as I probably would have taken Cal in that game too as I really liked this team coming back from the offseason and starting QB Chase Gabers who struggled with injuries last year but played well when he got the chance going 8-2 as a starter last year. I'm not entirely sure what the hell happened last week against UCLA in the 2nd half as I tried to watch the highlights from Cal but the youtube video was completely blank as apparently they did NOTHING offense in the 2nd half. I think this is a good spot for a bounce back game - especially for their offense against an Oregon State defense that has been horrible in its first two games with an average ranking of 111th across all FEI categories - a rare feat! Cals defense should improve again this year under fourth year head coach, Justin Wilcox, who has been all over the PAC 12 for the last 20 years as a defensive coordinator, including leading Wisconsin in 2016 to 14th in ypp allowed and in 2018 at Cal they quietly went 8th in ypp allowed (because their offense was so bad). Last week Cal’s whole defensive line was in quarantine up until the wee hours of the game, they literally traveled on a separate bus due to “contact tracing” and were preparing for Arizona State all week before being told Friday that there going to be facing UCLA instead (who already had couple games under their belt). Cal had 21 players make their season debuts last week including 4 starters. This week they return to form as everyone will be back and with ample time to prepare.

Oklahoma -7 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
I was trying to find something in this game that could make me want to take the points with Oklahoma State but couldn't find a good reason and actually the opposite popped up. By the numbers, Oklahoma’s defense has really stepped up this year, surprisingly ranked, 29th in defensive FEI, and an average ranking of 37th across all FEI categories. A much better defense than Oklahoma State has typically faced this season being in the BIG 12. Oklahoma’s defensive line is their strength ranked 12th in line yards, 24th in opportunity rank, 15th in power success rank, 9th in stuff ranking, and 11th in sack rating! This will be a HUGE problem for Oklahoma State’s offensive line who is ranked 104th in line yards, 83rd in opportunity rate, 91st in power success rate, 102nd in stuff ranking and 111th in sack rating (100 ranking worse in that category!). This looks like a disaster for Oklahoma State’s offense under starting QB Spencer Sanders, who hasn’t handled pressure well, ranking 96th this year in PFF rankings under pressure, and last season ranking 89th amongst all QB under pressure (with min 20% dropbacks). As good as Oklahoma State's defense has been this year they have yet to face an offense like Oklahomas who have averaged 62 points in their last two games. I think this is a blow-out and a little surprised the line is as low as it is considering the results of this matchup over the last few years (maybe it’s those crap ranks the “panel” puts next to each teams name as Oklahoma State is 14th where Oklahoma is 18th). I bought to 6.5 with my bookie just to be safe but I doubt we’ll need it.

USC/Utah over 57.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
This will be a tough one to predict but I like our chances to cash in on another PAC 12 over. Utah has yet to play a game and lost 9 starters on defense from last year. Two weeks ago, the most experienced corner they had said he was transferring leaving another young inexperienced freshman in Utah's secondary. USC’s passing attack is the strength of this team with returning starting QB Kevon Slovis leading the offense. He has struggled a little in his first two games but expects him to find some relief against this young secondary. Andy Ludwig enters his 2nd year after returning to Utah and I expect big things out of them despite losing Huntley and Zach Moss but they do have few transfers competing for the starting QB position including Jake Bentley from South Carolina who I expect to get the nod. He will have a very strong offensive line as 4 starters return and they were solid last year ranking 31st in line yards and 5th in opportunity rank. They should be able to get 5 yards on every carry against a USC defense that is currently ranked 111th in PFF in rushing defense and have allowed 5.3 yards per carry in the first two games against two much weaker offenses in Arizona and ASU. I think this will be a classic late night PAC 12 shootout and hopefully the refs don’t interfere too much in this one like they love to do in the PAC.
 
Week 12 Results: 6-2 (+3.37 units)
Season YTD: 43-46 (-7.03 units)

Week 13:
Iowa State ML (-101) 2x
Nebraska +14 (-111)
California -1 (-103)
Virginia -8.5 (-106)

Iowa State ML (-101) Risking 2.02 units to win 2 units
I love this play for two units despite the numbers not being glaringly obvious this one certainly stands out for the eye test for each team. Iowa State’s offense does outrank Texas’s defense in every FEI category but one with an average differential of 12 ranks across all categories. Iowa State’s defense is equally ahead of Texas’s offense across all categories with a close average and the biggest two differentials being available yards percentage and drive yards per play. Texas’s biggest surprise this season is their defensive line that currently ranks #15 in yards per rush allowed at 3.2. But a closer look at their game log would show that they didn't do so great against the better rushing attacks they've faced and this Iowa State offense is one of the best in the nation at running as they are ranked 10# averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Iowa State's defensive line should also be a big mismatch for Texas as Texas offensive line ranks 67th in sack% allowed while Iowa State’s defensive line ranks 21st in sack%. Iowa State loves to control the clock averaging time of possession % at 53.5% ranking 29th in the league - while Texas’s offense is the opposite and their defense struggles to get off the field ranking 99th in TOP %. We also have the much more disciplined team as Iowa State ranked #35 in penalties per play while Texas ranks 107th. Texas has covered each of the last 4 years in this rivalry match-up which I think is driving this number down but I think Iowa State should win by a good TD+.

Nebraska +14 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Since Scott Frost has taken over Nebraska this has always been a close game and despite the outcome of Iowa’s last 3 games, their program struggles with blowing teams out by 14+ as they aren’t very aggressive and will predictably run the ball, especially in the 2nd half nursing a lead. Nebraska has seen some life on offense by bringing in Luke McCaffrey at QB although he threw 3 INT’s last game, they all came on 4th downs or long down and distances where he was trying to do too much and in a closer game he would have not made the throws. Turnovers have plagued their offense but they have been able to move the chains and I think they match up well against this tough Iowa defense. Scott Frost loves to go for the big play and Iowa is susceptible to them giving up two one play scoring TD’s last week to Penn State in the 2nd half. Defensive coordinator for Nebraska, Erik Chinander actually played for Ferentz back in ‘99-’02 and I’m sure he will put his players in position to defend this tough conference opponent well. Illinois ran all over Nebraska last week but their offensive play-calling couldn't be more different than Iowa’s. According to Sagarin, Nebraska has played the most difficult schedule to date. Granted Iowa has blown out their last 3 opponents in Minnesota, Michigan State and last week Penn State, I think this one will be a much closer game as Frost gets his team ready to play this Black Friday.

California -1 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Can’t believe I am betting California again but I can’t let last week's rough loss dissuade me. The “COVID” factor had to have some influence last week as Cal gave up a 75 yard touchdown run on the first play of the game and were still in position to win despite giving up numerous short-fields and turned the ball over with 30 seconds left in the game on the Oregon state 10 yard line. I thought all the players were going to be back last week but apparently certain athletic directors have felt it behooves their program to keep the players who are sitting out a secret despite the challenges it presents to the casual HANDICAPPER (we’re legitimate folk now thanks to Uncle Sam's blessing!) Cal’s offense should continue to gain momentum and move the ball against a Stanford defense that ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all FEI categories including 123rd in defensive efficiency rating and 126th in defensive drive yards per play (worse than Oregon state’s defense!) Their defensive line has been horrible ranking 111th in line yards and allowing 5.2 yards per rush. Stanford has also struggled at kicking the ball, only converting 43% of their attempts while Cal’s kicker has made 100% of his field goal tries this year. Although this Cal team is only average in discipline ranking 72nd in penalties per play it’s still a heck of a lot better than Stanford who ranks 124th in penalties per play and 113th in penalties yards per game. Cal last year came up with a big upset win last season over Stanford despite having lost 9 straight to the program and I think that confidence carries over to this year as this is a big game for the program to keep them from going winless on the season nearing the PAC 12’s halfway mark.

Virginia -8.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
I loved this Virginia bet again and did everything in my power to not make it two units. I get worried in games like these when all the signs point to a big win with one hot team who is 6-2 ATS against an ice cold team that is 2-6 ATS. The numbers also agree as Virginia has big mismatches on both sides of the ball, especially at the line of scrimmage as their offensive line has been stellar this season ranking 11th in line yards, 22nd in opportunity rate and 7th in stuff rankings. Florida State’s defensive line has been less than stellar allowing 5.4 yards per carry ranking #116th in the league. Bronco loves to dial up the pressure and he should get plenty of opportunities against a FSU team that has allowed sacks on 9.7% of their pass plays (ranking 114th). Virginia’s defensive line ranks 9th in sack% at 10.26%. FEI numbers agree as Virginia outranks FSU by 40 ranks across ALL categories on BOTH sides of the ball (extremely rare to see that). Virginia is also a much more disciplined team, ranking 5th in penalties per play and 10th in penalty yards per game, where FSU ranks 123rd in penalties per play and 121st in penalty yards per game. If NC State, Pitt, and Louisville (their last 3 games) can all win by 2+ TDs, I see no reason why Virginia can’t either in this match-up.
 
Trees kicker missed 4 in the opener so not sure if he terrible overall or just decided to make sure I lost that over by 2 points! (Ducks kicker chipped in and missed one late as well to add insult to my face!).

my problem with Cal is I fear Rona and their circumstances might haunt them all season simply cause they had very little practice time to prepare for this season and it clearly shows especially on the defensive side where I expected them to be strong. I lean over there as I have in all trees games considering as you pointed out the trees defense is awful and I think the offense is potentially very good. I just have no clue wtf Cal will look like? I’d agree the offense should be able to move the ball fairly consistently, I worry about their ability to punch in red zone chances which I think be a big key to your chances of covering along with my over lean. I just don’t know if the defense is gonna improve? I did not expect beavers to run on them like that! Granted the 75 yarder to open game padded those numbers but after that Jefferson went for another 120 on his next 17 attempts!

everytime I go to play the over something stops me and says to just stay away cause still not sure what Cal is this year? It would be strictly a bet on being confident in what the trees are.

Isu another game id like to play but man there a lot of question marks on it for me. Short week for isu, long layoff for Texas, both teams being a bit more inconsistent than I’d prefer. I agree isu is the better team eye test wise but also understand why this number has bounced around pk to both sides throughout week cause I wouldn’t be shocked by any result. Good chance I watch how this one looks early and jump in live or halftime.

I have all but convinced myself to pass on anything besides live or halftime plays today cause I just couldn’t find much I was confident In and do like several 2marro. Then I see you firing at a handful of games and thinking I missed some things! Lol. Gl today
 
Lol, yea ended up being a great day yesterday for me as I also hit some totals that I plugged in late, finally turning a corner since the RONA hit! Black Friday is one of the best days of the year to bet college football bank no way in hell I was waiting for live/2nd half only! haha

Here are the adds.....

Season YTD: 45-47 (-5.06 units)

Week 13 Adds:
NC State/Syracuse Under 50.5 (-110)
Mississippi State +10 (-108)
Boston College -1 (-107)
Appalachian State -13.5 (-105)
Auburn TT Over 17.5 (-124)
Virginia -8.5 (-106) pending, read last post for writeup

NC State/Syracuse Under 50.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This will be the battle of the backup QBs as NC state and Syracuse battle injuries. Jacobian Morgan came and started for the first time against Boston College after backup Rex Culpepper got hurt against Wake. Then Dino said he was going to stick with Morgan but then Morgan got injured himself against Louisville so now we’re back to Rex most likely. Both seem equally bad and should have issues against a NC state defense that ranks an average 54th across all FEI categories but really excels on 3rd down and in the red zone as they rank #26th in 3rd down conv % and 43rd in red zone scoring %. It’s not surprising we have a huge mismatch at the defensive line as NC state outranks Syracuse by a differential of 61 ranks across all line yard categories. They should rack up some sacks as Syracuse ranks 121st in sack ranking (and the bottom 10% of all categories). Syracuse’s offensive line is very thin too as 4 offensive lineman have been declared out for the season, 3 in the last month. NC State’s offense hasn't been great either since losing Devin Leary. They have only rushed for 3.8 yards per carry (ranking 89th) and have an average passing attack. Both offenses really struggled last week as NC State only put up 15 against Liberty and Syracuse laid an egg. In last year's matchup the game finished with a final score of 16-10 and I can't seem to find a reason why this game wouldn't be similar and worst case we get a couple defensive TDs and are still well under the total.

Mississippi State +10 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I love getting this many points against such a terrible defense - especially a rivalry game! Ole Miss defense is the bottom of the barrel in almost every FEI category, they are ranked #124th in completion percentage allowed, #125 in opponents 3rd down conv % allowed, #100 in red zone scoring % allowed, #119th in yards per rush (at 5.8 ypc!), #115 in the yards per pass allowed. Despite being thrown into the middle of a brutal schedule, Will Rogers is developing nicely and has shown bits of life to the offense since Costello got benched. Last week against UGA (one of the better defenses I think) he completed 78.8% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass with 1 TD and no picks. A team that so obviously passes so frequently (77% of the time) can be susceptible to a good pass rush but thankfully Ole Miss has none and ranks #92nd in sack %. Mississippi State's defense in contrast has actually been pretty good this season considering their offensive woes. They rank #13 in yards per rush allowed (and ole miss loves to run) and average 37th across all defensive FEI categories (ole miss average ranking 114th across all defensive categories). Will Rogers has had probably the most difficult defenses to face in his first 5 career games as he had to go up against Kentucky, Texas AM, Alabama, and Georgia. I think they keep this one close as they finally get some breathing room against the soft ole miss defense.

Boston College -1 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
At first looking at this game I was worried reading the injury report that Jurkovec separated his shoulder and then I realized the injury happened 3 weeks ago and this guy is still playing like the beast he is. He’s had two weeks off to rest up and he’s one of my favorite QBs of the year I had never heard about. He has that big presence and hangs in the pocket well to help his playmakers buy time, a variable very hard to measure in college ball (any takers on how to measure?) . Honestly even if he didn’t play I think BC is a heck of a lot better than Louisville this season. The biggest threat on Louisville's offense was Javian Hawkins who opted out two weeks ago. That can’t be good for team morale. Their offensive line struggles ranking 97th in line yards, 90th in power success, 119th in stuff ranking, and 96th in sack % - these are numbers on the year with Hawkins and I suspect them to be worse without him despite them blowing out Syracuse last week 30-0, because the Syracuse team is in shambles. We should win the turnover margin as the Cardinals have been loose with the ball turning the ball over 2.3 times per game and Boston College have forced 1.9 turnovers per game. In contrast, Boston College takes care of the football only averaging 1.1 giveaways per game and Louisville defense hasn’t caused much, only averaging 1 takeaway per game. Last year this was a shootout with Louisville winning the turnover margin +2 and edging out a two point victory. This year I think the turnover margin and score are reversed as Boston College looks to win their last two games of the year which would be huge for their program under 1st year head coach, Jeff Hafley who has really grown on me.

Appalachian State -13.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Towards the end of the season I always like to sift through the bottom of the ATS barrel (a dangerous game to play) and pick out some matchups I like for teams that are getting crushed ATS - Appalachian State is one of them going 1-7 ATS on the season but I think they match-up well against this Troy team. Troy loves to throw the ball, averaging 61% pass plays (ranked 5th) on the season but that's the strength of this Appalachian State defense. They are ranked 1st in completion percentage allowed, 8th in opponent yards per pass, and 15th in coverage according to PFF. Troy loves to throw because their offense can’t run the ball very well as their offensive line has an average ranking of 89th across all categories and is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Troy's defense hasn't been great against the run as their defensive line has an average ranking of 56th across all categories and have allowed 4.2 yards per carry (ranking 53rd). Appalachian state can run the ball well averaging 5.2 yards per carry (ranking 26th). Senior QB Zac Thomas has already seen Troy twice in his career and put up big numbers including a blowout win last year 48-13. The line is so low because of App States year to date ATS and the fact they got smashed by Coastal Carolina after leading 19-7 at half. Appalachian State won’t take their foot off the gas on this one and make sure they don’t let another team come from behind against them in the 2nd half.

Auburn TT Over 17.5 (-124) Risking 1.24 units to win 1 units
This should be a shootout. Alabama’s defensive line is not what it was last year as they have an average ranking of 82nd across all defensive line categories and Auburn’s offensive line has been the biggest strength of this team. They rank 10th in line yards, 10th in opportunity rate, 30th in power success and 21st in stuff ranking. Alabama’s defense has been stat padding and taking advantage of the weaker offenses in the SEC only allowed 20 points combined in their last 3 games, but in their first 4 games they allowed 28 points per game and Auburn’s offense can put up big numbers, especially when Bo Nix has time to make his throws, and Auburn should have plenty of that as Alabama ranks 106th in sack ranking. My bookie has 19.5 but I still like it as those are dead numbers and should be good under 20 or up.
 
Damn, is it really only Thursday?! I'm locked and loaded and ready to eat this Saturday! Will post a few more Saturday morning.......

Week 13 Results: 5-3 (+2.63 units)
Season YTD: 48-48 (-4.4 units)

Texas -8.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Since Skylar Thompson got injured in the 3rd game for Kansas State, their offense entirely relies on their run game and that spells disaster against this tough Texas run defense that is one of the top units in the nation defending the run. Their defensive line ranks 7th in line yards, 10th in opportunity rank, and 16th in stuff ranking and have allowed only 3.2 yards per carry on the season - ranking #18th in the nation. Their run defense on PFF ranks 15th in the nation. This should be a disaster for Kansas State’s offensive line as they are ranked 118th in line yards, 114th in opportunity ranking, and 113th in stuff ranking - a huge mismatch on paper. Last year when these two teams faced off Kansas State could get no push up front - rushing for 51 yards on 26 carries and relied on Skylar Thompson to beat them through the air and got a kickoff return for a TD which kept the game close to a 3-pt victory which I don’t expect to be the case this year even though they have been close games the last 4 years and Kansas State has covered the last two. Last year, Texas ran all over them racking up 214 yards on 36 carries, averaging 5.93 yards per carry. FEI categories also agree as Texas’s offense and defense outranks Kansas States in almost every category. Across all categories Texas’s offense outranks Kansas State’s defense by 26 ranks, and Texas’s defense outranks Kansas State’s offense by 24 ranks across all categories. Texas’s defense has also been very impressive this year on 3rd down allowing opponents to convert on only 36% of the time, ranking 39th in the nation - an area where Kansas State has struggled this year only converting 32% of their 3rd downs on offense, ranking #112th. Texas wins this one easily by 2+ TDs as no way Kansas State’s offense can keep up with them.

Oklahoma St/TCU Under 51 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Gotta be a little crazy to take a BIG 12 matchup under at noon but this one stands out for a couple reasons. The line in itself is a little telling as despite these two teams having faced each other the last 3 years resulting in very high totals the game total for this year is only 51? Less than the last 3 years? That’s because the bookies know the numbers tell a very different story for this season. Both defenses are the strengths of these football teams as both are in the upper echelon of most relevant statistical categories. According to FEI, TCU has an average ranking of 36th across all categories with the biggest strengths coming in Busted drive rate (ranked 2nd) and first down drive rate (ranked 4th), an area where Okie State’s offense has struggled ranking 83rd in busted drive rate and 67 in first down drive rate. TCU’s offense has an average ranking of 72nd across all FEI categories. Oklahoma State’s defense by the numbers has an even bigger advantage with an average ranking of 28th across all FEI categories and their offense has struggled with an average ranking 77th across the FEI. Both defensive lines have HUGE advantages over the offensive line counterparts with the biggest mismatch being in the pass rush where both teams struggle heavily at protecting as TCU ranks 95th in sack% allowed and Okie State pass rush 43rd in sack % and Okie States sack% allowed ranks a horrible 102nd and TCU’s pass rush ranks an even better 27th in sack%. Dillion Stoner (I wish that was my last name) who scored two big play TD’s in last year's matchup left last game and his status for Saturday is “hazy” (lol, kudos to whoever wrote the injury report). Expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams and if you omit Oklahoma State’s 2 big rush TD’s from last year's stat line they ran at a much less impressive 3.7 yards per carry against TCU. This game should stay well under the total unlike most BIG 12 matchups which is driving the high number.

Iowa State -7 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Back on the cyclones again this week as I think this is another good matchup for them against West Virginia. West Virginia’s offensive line has struggled this season, ranking in the bottom 10% of almost all rushing categories. Iowa State should be able to drop into coverage and let their defensive line that has been so dominant this year (ranking #17 in ypc allowed) to contain the run game. They should be able to get some pressure on QB Jarret Doedge, who although sports some pretty good numbers - has done it all against weak competition. All of WVU’s are skewed compared to Iowa States as if you look at any SOS ranks, despite being in the same conference, Iowa State heavily outranks WVU. According to GLS rankings, Iowa State ranks 16th in SOS to date and WVU ranks a measly 55th. I expect this Iowa State team that has really caught their stride lately to continue playing better and better and the final result should be very similar to last year where Iowa State won 14-38.

Virginia -6.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Jurkovec left last game against Louisville because of a new knee injury, and his shoulder injury seems to persist as he’s been struggling in some of his downfield throws. If he does play, he will have to make a lot of plays in the air or with his legs and deal with a lot of pressure, an area where BC has struggled all season ranking 72nd in sack%. UVA’s defense is the real deal and I already talked a lot about them and they excel the most against teams that can’t defend the pass rush and are ranked 13th in sack%. UVA’s offensive line also has a huge advantage as they are ranked 8th in line yards, 19 in opportunity rate, and 6th in stuff ranking. An area where Boston Colleges defensive line has struggled ranking 93rd in line yards, 110th in opportunity rate, and 49th in stuff rankings. We are also the much more disciplined team by a long shot as UVA ranks 6th in penalties per play and 12th in penalty yards per game, where Boston College ranks 103rd in penalties per play and 98th in penalty yards per game. Boston College defense looked very exploitable last week and honestly thought we were a bit fortunate to cover last week as easily as we did as it could have been a much closer game if it weren't for all Louisville turnovers and they averaged .6 yards more per play then BC did. BC’s offense should struggle against this top tier defense and I don’t see this one being close either. Lock in now if you can for -4 as I made the mistake of locking in early under 7 thinking it would go over 7 but I’m terrible at predicting the market. If I didn't lock the bet in I’m sure the line would have moved to 10 but I locked in so bookies dropped to 4 just to piss me off. Take advantage of them for making that mistake.
 
Oh man we are butting heads a lot here bro. I love BC to beat Uva, I lean wvu but don’t love them on the road, I think I might be higher on the under 49.5 in that game.
 
Texas is interesting, I can’t lay it with them but I do agree: think everyone hearing horns players opting out and think they a easy fade, problem is as you mentioned k-st offense been horrific since losing their qb. Gotta think elinger gonna go all out to finish his ncaa career and expect he take whoever on the field with him!!
 
Fading all your plays because whenever you put plays in too early in the week you lose!! Lol good write ups palski. I usually get ya when we go head to head but ya got meh last week with iowa st!! Bastard ! Was leaning other way on a couple of these already...might back off now cuz u been hot!!
 
what up bank been a while broski. Good to see you’re alive and well. Dan told me the Sb r crowd moved here
 
Joco said:
what up bank been a while broski. Good to see you’re alive and well. Dan told me the Sb r crowd moved here
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yea I’m good. I been posting here for years while I was still posting at sbr, lot of sharp guys worth talking with here with none the bs! Just couldn’t take any more the sbr shit talking garbage!! Miss some the guys but I always told them they could find me here if I wasn’t at sbr! Good to see ya, think you will find this place has way more good discussions with none the drama garbage!!
 
Joco said:
Fading all your plays because whenever you put plays in too early in the week you lose!! Lol good write ups palski. I usually get ya when we go head to head but ya got meh last week with iowa st!! Bastard ! Was leaning other way on a couple of these already...might back off now cuz u been hot!!
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if you like wvu take a look at the under, another good way to play it without being against. I think 49.5 handful of points too high, seems like a 24-20 type game to me. I’m under the impression isu in the big12 championship game regardless what happens here which would make me lean wvu even more. I don’t trust wvu offense on the road tho, under looks solid.
 
I agree on wvu offense. Leddie brown is a nice back, they are solid in the trenches and a top 30ish d so keep the clock movin..iowa state Breece hall probably have over 20 carries As usual...doege is a liability throwing the ball so if they get down early I could see him turning it over trying to force throws. Spread no play for me and lean under. And not really fading my boy here I was just talkin trash after last week lol
 
Joco said:
I agree on wvu offense. Leddie brown is a nice back, they are solid in the trenches and a top 30ish d so keep the clock movin..iowa state Breece hall probably have over 20 carries As usual...doege is a liability throwing the ball so if they get down early I could see him turning it over trying to force throws. Spread no play for me and lean under. And not really fading my boy here I was just talkin trash after last week lol
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he knows I mean no disrespect but I’m def gonna be against him in the bc/Uva game. He makes a fair point about Uva pass rush and BC not being great at protection but I think Jerkovec healthy enough/will play and I think with him BC is the better team so obviously I like them catching points. Middle the pack acc is my bread and butter so gotta roll with what I come up with!! I think ncst is the best fav in the middling acc matchups this week!!!

I could def be talked off wvu since I feel stronger about the under anyways. Wvu offense has not traveled well, the defense does tho!!
 
I am a little concerned about rain in the forecast for the Uva game, that certainly doesn’t favor BC.
 
I was on bc week 1 myself but I’ve faded them unsuccessfully a few weeks since..Havnt looked into that one fully. Dan doesn’t usually bet uva so he might be on to something. Iowa st and iowa he plays every week almost heh
 
Joco said:
I was on bc week 1 myself but I’ve faded them unsuccessfully a few weeks since..Havnt looked into that one fully. Dan doesn’t usually bet uva so he might be on to something. Iowa st and iowa he plays every week almost heh
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I bet some middling acc teams practically every week. For some reason I have had a real good feel for those the last few years, don’t ask me why? Lol. Never mess with the top the acc just the middle and bottom! Just see them pretty good for some reason. If Jerkovec has time to thru he should shred Uva secondary imo. It’s true Uva gets after the qb but they also allow 15.9 yards per completion which ranks way down at the bottom of the entire ncaa. Along with 9.7 yards per attempt which 125th! Uva also turns it over way too much. As I said the rain in forecast a small concern but I truly believe the better team is catching points here. At least one of us will be happy. Lol
 
Welll sheeeeeit I hope you locked em in cuz line is down from 7 to 3.5?!? I see about 57% bet and 61% $ on bc spread so makes sense line coming down. Also I see heavier money on bc ml. Uva probably wins by 4-6 points lol
 
Joco said:
Fading all your plays because whenever you put plays in too early in the week you lose!! Lol good write ups palski. I usually get ya when we go head to head but ya got meh last week with iowa st!! Bastard ! Was leaning other way on a couple of these already...might back off now cuz u been hot!!
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LOL, that only applies early on season when I'm firing away from the hip with barely any relevant stats are even posted yet! I just got started early on week got the numbers done by Tuesday night I usually dont get them done till thursday-Fri on a normal week! Im ready to gooooooo Im catching fire , lol, anyone wanna take a gander at the google sheet your welcome to checkout. I used GLS rank this week instead of Sagarin, for SOS, just easier to scrape
docs.google.com

2020 Week 14 DapperDan Matchups

O/D line Matchups Exp,OLine Exp,Line Yards Rank,Oppurtuniy Rank,Power Success RK,Stuff Rk,Sack Rk,Final Score Spread Differenital 0,0,0,0,0 0,0,0,0,0 Thursday L. Tech,113,112,56,121,82 North Texas,116,115,80,100,32 -3,-3,-24,21,50 N. Texas,13,40,77,9,31 L. Tech,68,44,66,81,97 -55,-4,11,-72,-66 L...
docs.google.com docs.google.com
 
2daBank said:
if you like wvu take a look at the under, another good way to play it without being against. I think 49.5 handful of points too high, seems like a 24-20 type game to me. I’m under the impression isu in the big12 championship game regardless what happens here which would make me lean wvu even more. I don’t trust wvu offense on the road tho, under looks solid.
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Ya just scanning through all the PFF rankings seeing WVU defense ranked #1 in coverage! eeeeh! All the lines moved against me haha the bookies got me worried now.
 
Joco said:
I was on bc week 1 myself but I’ve faded them unsuccessfully a few weeks since..Havnt looked into that one fully. Dan doesn’t usually bet uva so he might be on to something. Iowa st and iowa he plays every week almost heh
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I faded them a couple times early on season just based on lack of exp and all new coaching staff with no exp......But the coaching staff has grown on me, lots of times though with these brand new coaches you find no one knows how to scheme against them early on in season as they have no film or history of them
 
Eyeing Texas AM too....my cards all favorites this week - I rarely play them!


Bank, whats you take on Missouri this week? Im leaning arkansas pretty heavy in that one
 
DapperDan said:
Eyeing Texas AM too....my cards all favorites this week - I rarely play them!


Bank, whats you take on Missouri this week? Im leaning arkansas pretty heavy in that one
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I lean arky to, I was just hoping to get more like +4-6 with them. Think it probably be a last possession type game, they seem fairly even imo. It a pass for me at this price but I don’t hate a play on Razorbacks. The under might make some sense as well. Tigers have a pretty big edge on 3rd down so I think they will possess the ball more and control tempo but don’t like them in the red zone which should limit points and keep Razorbacks in the game. Woulda been nice to catch over a fg! I think if I had to play it under would be where I’m at, I have other things I like more tho.

damn, I lean against your aggies lean too! I wanna be on auburn but 3rd down a huge concern so I’ll prob stay away.
 
Good luck today Banker! (except the ones Im on opposide side of) haha, Ill probably tail a couple of yours too once I dig around forums and see what other cappers are on too


Season YTD: 48-48 (-4.4 units)

Week 14 adds:
Nebraska/Purdue Over 63.5 (-111)
Arkansas +3 (-114)
LSU +29 (+100)
Miami -14.5 (-111)
Utah -11 (-113)

Nebraska/Purdue Over 63.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Not scared by the fact that the bookies have moved the line up by 3 points since the opener and juicing it still. There’s all kinds of reasons why this will be another unprecedented 2020 shootout where both teams score in the 40’s. Both defenses by the number are some of the lowest ranked units in the league. According to PFF, Nebraska is ranked 100th in overall defense, 98th in coverage, and 96th in run defense. Purdue’s is not much better ranking 85th in overall defense, 40th in run defense, and 117th in coverage. Purdue defense got dominated last week by Rutgers read-option especially in the 2nd half when senior leading tackling LB David Barnes got ejected and will be missing the first half of this game. Nebraska loves the read option and Scott Frost loves to go for the big play. Both QBs normally struggle with pressure but they shouldn't have any as either of these two defensive lines have done much of anything this season, ranking 90th and 125th in sack%. Purdue’s elite receiving corps (David Bell, Milton Wright and Ronale Moore) should have a field day against this soft pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass (ranked 82nd) and allowed opponents to complete 64% of their passes (ranked 91st). Both these coaches love to play tempo - although both of their plays per game stats this season are lower than years past, it’s only because both teams TOP% is well below 50. Take the over.

Arkansas +3 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Missouri has been fortunate enough to cover the last two games after facing two programs that are riddled with injuries and departures. Arkansas has had one of the toughest schedules to date, ranking 3rd in GLS SOS scale and have had close games even with their better opponents. Their biggest strength is their pass defense where they rank 32nd in PFF and 28th in yards per pass allowed (even after facing Florida, Texas AM, Auburn, and UGA). Missouri prefers to pass as they throw 50% of the time, more than most teams and have not got much push up front only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Missouri’s defensive numbers are heavily padded against the terrible offensive teams they have played including Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Kentucky - their PFF rankings game log show their run defense and coverage barely broke a 60 PFF ratings against their better opponents. Arkansas’s biggest problem on offense has been their ability to protect and give Felipe time but Missouri is not very good in the pass rush ranking 78th in sack%. I had to do a double take when looking at their offensive passing numbers as they are quietly one of the better teams in the nation ranking 18th in yards per pass and 17th in completion percentage - as long as they get the throws off and isnt facing pressure the veteran Franks has been surprisingly good. Arkansas has lost the last 4 straight to Missouri but I think this one as this would be a huge win for the program as they are sitting currently with a 3-5 record (but against tough competition) and will give it everything they got to fight for new head coach Greg Schiano (haha just kidding you assholes I know it’s Sam Pittman and mistakenly put Schiano in a past Arkansas writeup as it wasn't particularly important to that write-up and both are fucking red #fuckoff)

Miami -14.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Buy this number down to 14 obviously if you can but I’m using pickmonitor to track picks and am unable to currently do so - but I don’t think it matters regardless. After losing two years in a row to Duke, this has all the makings of a revenge matchup where Miami will put up as many points as they possibly can against their ACC foe, Duke who has struggled a lot this season including getting blown out by Georgia Tech last week. The last two years these teams faced off it was pouring rain which helped Duke accumulate 12 sacks in two years, but this year King won’t be as pathetic as Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry were. On both sides of the ball Miami has HEAVY advantages across almost all FEI categories as they outrank Duke’s team by an average of 21 ranks on offense and an average of 50 ranks on defense! Duke’s weak offensive line will be a particularly huge mismatch for Miami as they are ranked 112th in line yards, 116th in opportunity rate, 100th in power success rate, 68th in stuff rankings and 103rd in sack%. Miami’s defensive line ranks 36th in line yards, 81st in opportunity rate, 37th in power success rate, 25th in stuff ranking, and 35th in sack%. Although Miami’s offensive line has struggled to run the ball this year, Duke’s defensive line is particularly bad at stopping the run allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the season (ranking 89th). Duke’s offense is giving away an unprecedented 3.3 turnovers per game - and the team that invented the turnover chain will surely be busting it out in a lot as they blow-out Duke tonight after having 3 weeks off.

LSU +29 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Going to keep this write-up short as it was my last add for the day and gotta go back to my day job shortly after another long week. In short, Alabama has only beat two teams this year by more than 29 points and that was Miss. State and Kentucky. LSU has come a long way this season after struggling early on and they are a much better team with Finley at QB - I think he can keep this one within 4 TD’s with a worst case backdoor.

Utah -11 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
I love a good late night contrarian PAC 12 play and this one has all the indicators. Currently right now on Saturday morning on PickMonitor - there are 11 handicappers who have made a play of this one with 10 of them being on Oregon State. The stats for this match-up are even more heavily in our favor than this contrarian market angle. Chance Nolan will be getting his first ever start (and has only been on the team for the shit-show that is 2020) for Oregon State as starting QB Gebbia went down late in the game last week and although the injury report has him listed as “probable” - other Oregon State fan base articles indicate that he is not only injured but most likely missing the rest of the season. Hopefully he knows the playbook in the short time the PAC 12 has given the opportunity to learn it as he will have to do a lot through the air as in true PAC 12 fashion - this Utah run defense is stout. Utah’s run defense is ranked 38th in line yards and ranks #15 only allowing 3.2 yards per carry in their first two games - Utah’s front is always great and well coached under Kyle Whittingham. The combined defensive line yards ranking for Oregon State’s first four opponents? 105th - which is partly why Jenmar Jenkins has some eye-poppingly good stats averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Utah will shut-down this running attack and force this untested rookie to beat them deep. Utah should get an effective pass rush when Oregon State gets stuck behind the chains and Utah’s defense is notoriously good at getting pressure in those situations ranking 31st in sack% and an area where Oregon State struggles ranking 61st in sack % allowed. Jake Bentley seemed to settle into the offense last week completing 70% of his throws but made a few key mistakes under pressure - a thing Oregon State shouldnt get much ranking 121st in sack%. I think this is a blow-out and the casual gambler only sees that Utah is struggling at 0-2, and Oregon State upset the almighty Oregon last week and are going to “break-out” for a great season- which may have been the case but not with Chance Nolan leading the team - I’d be on it.
 
Thanks bud. Lets finish the season out strong!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 54-50 (-0.67 units)
Week 14: 6-2 (+3.73 units)
Last month: 23-9 (+13.55 units)

Week 15:
6 pt Teaser. Pitt -1 and Arizona State -5 (-110)
Utah +2 (-107)
Virginia +2 (-108) 1.5x

6 pt Teaser. Pitt -1 and Arizona State -5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
I stopped picking teasers about 3 years ago when I started tracking at pickmonitor as they currently don’t offer to track them. Funny though going back and looking at my old picks online I noticed my best years were my first few years posting when I usually had almost one teaser a week - so I'm bringing them back and may have a few more pop before the end of the year but I LOVE this one. Both these games stand-out by the number easily but both are primetime games on Thursday and Friday night which are notoriously poorly officiated by refs so I thought I’d be safe and tease them both down. I already talked a lot about this Pitt team and how much I like them and Narduzzi, especially defensively and their offense has battled injuries but is mostly healthy now. They will be facing off a G. Tech offense that prefers to run the ball ranking #26th in rush %, but that's Pitt’s speciality as they only allow 2.4 yards per carry on the season, ranking 4th. Georgia Tech should also struggle in the passing game as young QB Sims does not do well under pressure with dumb mistakes and his offensive line is ranked 79th in sack % allowed. An area where Pitt’s defense excels ranking #2 in sack%. Arizona has been a dumpster fire all season, especially since starting QB Grant Gunnell got knocked out of the game two games ago, their offense has been abysmal and he’s currently listed as questionable. Arizona State is only 0-2 but probably against the best two teams in the PAC 12. They matchup very well against this struggling Arizona team. Arizona State loves to run the ball and are currently ranked 4th in yards per carry averaging 5.8 ypc and Arizona’s defense has allowed 6.1 yards per carry ranking #122nd in the league! Horrible! Another big mismatch in this game is in the pass rush as Arizona State is ranked 13th in sack% where Arizona’s offensive line is ranked 119th in sack% allowed. Both these games should cover easily but we teaser them down after countless bad beats on Thursday and Friday nights with matchups like these. Worst case one of them is a closer one possession type game but our teams should prevail. Sadly, I won’t be tracking this on my pickmonitor account but pickmonitor does have plans to include this feature in pickmonitor v2.0.

Utah +2 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
I love this bet again despite giving up a 30-10 lead in the 4th qtr last week only to get back doored by Oregon State in soft coverage and special teams miscues - we don’t need any points in this one and the better team will win in this matchup. Colorado is sporting a 4-0 undefeated record, but if you look at their opponents it’s been against weak competition ranking 53rd in sagarin's SOS scale (opposed to Utah’s 25th). Under new head coach, Karl Dorrell - they caught their first few opponents with their guard down as their offense graded above 72 in both games, with passing grades in the 86-88 and run grades 72-79. The last two games their offense wasn't nearly as potent grading out to a 54 against SD state and 69 against Arizona. Their passing game has really struggled averaging a 49 pass grade, 57.5 receiving grade, and 55 run block grade in those two games. They love to run the ball handing the ball off 65% of the time in their first 4 games - but that is the strength of this Utah’s front - ranking 28th in yards per carry allowed on the season. Utah found excellent success last week running the ball and Ty Jordan who has averaged 6.73 yards per carry on the season has solidified his role as the premiere back last week getting 27 carries and 167 yards and really wearing down Oregon State’s front last week in the 2nd half. He should have a big day again against a Colorado front that has allowed 4.9 yards per carry on teh season ranking 98th. We will take the better defense and the MUCH better coaching staff in this one as Karl Dorrall, although seasoned, had only been a head coach once before in his career back in 2003 at UCLA where he was a slightly above a 55% winner in 5 years.

Virginia +2 (-108) Risking 1.62 units to win 1.5 units
Again the bookies get me again moving the line the opposite way I would have expected - and with the same team! Those dirty bastards. If you can get the 3 points great but if not I don’t see how Virginia doesn't win this game. After struggling in the beginning of the season losing 4 of 5 (2 of which were without starting QB Brennan Armstrong), they have won 4 straight and are facing a V. Tech team going the opposite direction having lost 4 straight after winning 4 of it’s first 6 games. Virginia Tech relies on the run as they don’t have many down field threats nor do they have A QB that can throw the ball deep. Virginia’a secondary has been their biggest weakness as they rank 114th in PFF coverage ratings but their run defense is ranked 35th according to PFF and have only allowed 3.7 yards per carry. Their defensive line should be a huge mismatch for Vtech especially in the pass rush as Vtech ranks 100th in sack% allowed and Virginia ranks 10th in sack%. Virginia’s offensive strengths also play to V. techs weaknesses on defense. Vtech has allowed 5.0 yards per carry on the season ranking 102nd and their line yard rankings are even more abysmal as they rank 115th in line yards, 116th in opportunity rank, and 87th in stuff rankings. This will be a INSANELY huge mismatch as in those same 3 categories, UVA’s offensive line ranks 6th in line yards, 14th in opportunity ranking and 4th in stuff rankings - an average differential of 98 ranks! Bronco and this Virginia team beat Fuente and the hokies last year for the first time after losing to them 3 straight years - I think they carry that momentum into this week and finish the season off strong now that they are healthy at starting QB.
 
I like Pitt a lot. I got them -6.5 earlier in the week. I can’t see Gtech being able to do much offensively vs the Pitt front 7. They should hold the run game in check and pressure Simms which should lead to some turnovers along with just a rough day.

I think uva a bad matchup for Hokies especially if they don’t start hooker at qb, someone tuned into to that program posted here that there a riff between hooker and the head coach which seemed apparent against Clemson when they yanked him early. Personally think it be a huge mistake to start Burmeister vs uva cause hooker the better thrower imo (not to mention runner to!). The way to attack uva is absolutely thru the air imo, that was incredibly apparent last week when BC backup qb threw for 500+ and would have beat them if not for all the red zone picks! (Fucker, lol). The uva run d is very stout. Agree with you Armstrong has looked much better lately and wrong team favored in this one. I’m not interested in the points, I’m gonna take whatever plus money I can get.
 
Ya honestly expected Pitt line to be like -14 which is why I teased down in fear as its thursday night and we know them refs are up to something!

Good luck banker
 
DapperDan said:
Ya honestly expected Pitt line to be like -14 which is why I teased down in fear as its thursday night and we know them refs are up to something!

Good luck banker
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lol. I’m hoping it important to Pitt to have a winning season so it won’t matter. If the defense shows up I don’t see ref being able to score for tech! I suppose Pickett could stink it up and it ends up being close, i just can’t envision any other way tech keeps it close.

The total seems several points to high so guess I could be missing something. I know Pitt been a dead over team but that mostly cause their totals tend to be on the low side and they so pass happy, short of Pickett turning it over like he did vs Clemson I don’t see how tech scores much? I’d like to think he will bounce back from that horrific performance against a much easier team!!

I don’t tease ncaa much but that army/navy game screams teaser to me! Thoughts?
 
Army Navy is a tough one, especially considering the weather.

Army has significant edges on both sides of the ball on the offensive and defensive line -
Army's offensive line outranks Navys defensive line by an average of 50 ranks across all line yard categories
Army's defensive line outranks Navys offensive line by an average of 57 ranks across all line yard categories
Armys's offensive FEI ranking outrank Navys defensive FEI rankings by an average of 21 ranks accross all FEI categories
Army's defensive FEI rankings outrank Navys offensive FEI rankings by an average of 62 ranks across all FEI categories

All that being said Army has had a much easier SOS than Navy has to date.....

Tough one especially with a Rivalry game and the expected rains of 86%....IMO it's army or nothing, especially for a teaser because could be a blowout? but probably layoff as I havent watched much of either of these teams
 
I generally just play dog or under in that game, easy peasy! Problem is I don’t trust that navy offense, they were so Perry dependent for so long they lost their ability to run the option with the same precision imo. If you recall they didn’t really run a ton of traditional option with Perry, they pretty much just went shotgun and told him to make plays!

I think the navy defense has looked much stronger lately and as you said they have faced a much more respectable schedule compared to army. Army just looks the better team to me but still not fond of laying a td, hence the teaser idea. Army-1/under 44.5 has a nice ring to it imo!

not one the last 6 have eclipsed 38 points.
 
Navy with the points for me folks. SOS is the key. And not that it always works out like this but they beat Tulane on the road which is a tough place to play. Tulane beat army 38-10!! They have 2 wins this year that are against decent and I use that term lightly, teams. Georgia southern they won by a point and utsa by 12...
 
correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t Tulane have a big lead on navy and it was one the crazier more unlikely comebacks on the season? I also wanna say that game was way early while army had to play Tulane later when I think they were playing better. Either way those games don’t matter to me much. Sos might but Honestly how the teams have looked or who they have played typically doesnt matter to me heading into this one as it usually doesn’t matter much. Just don’t trust navy offense and the fact navy had one the rare butt kickings in the series last year makes me hesitant to take the points. Their d has been stouter of late so not exactly dying to lay the points either. I think you could prob tease the side either way with the under and cash. Not sure I see myself playing it straight unless it under. The number a touch lower than it typically is tho. It Right around 38 which been a really big number in this matchup as I think they have hit that number 3 of last 6 or something and it also been the highest their games have gotten in some time..
 
With all that expected rain and college game-day there - Im staying away from army/navy. Love these though, I can't wait til next season when these stupid cancelations stop. Timmy saw Ricky last Thursday and on the weekend Ricky tested positive for covid so Timmy should probably sit out just to be safe because this is super cereal.

Season YTD: 55-50 (+0.83 units)

Week 15 Adding:
Minnesota +10 (-107)
Wisc/Iowa Under 41.5 (-113)
UNC/Miami Under 68 (-108)
Tennessee -16 (-111)
Auburn -6 (-114)

Minnesota +10 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
A little shocked how high this number is, what because Nebraska upsets Purdue big they are all of a sudden big favs now? The numbers show this game will be MUCH closer and we should feast on all these points. Although Minnesota is in the bottom 10% of defenses in almost all PFF categories, their offense is a different story. Their overall offense ranks 15th in PFF, with a 72 pass ranking, 37th receiver ranking, 36th run ranking, and 9th run block ranking. A far cry better than Nebraska who ranks 107th overall on offense, 97th in pass ranking, 100th in receiver rankings, 39th in run and 115th in run block rankings. Nebraska’s defense although is not as bad as Minnesota granted, the differential between two sides still favors Minnesota heavily. We also have the better special teams according to PFF with Minnesota a 62 ranking and Nebraska a 96. We are also by far the more disciplined team ranking 20th in penalties per play where Nebraska ranks 93rd. Minnesota always loves to win the possession battle and chew up clock, ranking 4th in time of possession % rankings, a recipe that could wear out Nebraska's defense since their offense is the opposite - quick tempo and ranks 107th in time of possession %. As bad as Minnesota’s defense has been, they have really excelled in the red zone ranking 19th in red zone scoring % allowed. If we can hold Nebraska's offense to a couple field goals instead of touchdowns I see no reason why we don’t keep this one within 10 points.

UNC/Miami Under 68 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Gotta be a little crazy to take this under but there are quite a few things that standout in this one that make me really like it. First and foremost both offensive lines are banged up and have struggled all season long and the pass rush is the strength of both of these teams as both defensive lines outrank the offensive line counterparts by 70 ranks in sack%. UNC has the much worse defense but Miami’s offense has known to struggle at times as they don’t have any great stand-out receivers or big playmakers and are ranked 65 in the receivers rating according to PFF. Their pass blocking PFF ranking is 67th and their run-blocking even worse at 98th. The past 4 games their pass-blocking has averaged a very low 53.75 rating and I think both lines will struggle at getting their playmakers space and time. Miami’s defense on the other hand graded out to it’s best PFF grades by far last week after taking a few weeks off. They had one missed tackle in 68 attempts, resulting in the highest tackling score of the PFF era (since 2014), a 92. Their two edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Quncy Roche may be the best duo in college football and expect them to disrupt the timing of UNC’s potent offense. Against any of the more difficult teams UNC has faced this has completely thrown their offense out of whack like when they graded out a 24.7 pass blocking PFF rating against Notre Dame and only put up 17 points. The last two years these teams faced off the games went over the total but this year this number is much higher and I think this one is a low-scoring affair much to the public surprise.

Wisc/Iowa Under 41.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
A classic winter BIG 10 match-up against two defensive power-houses and whoever gets to 20 points will win. According to FEI, both defenses outrank their offensive counterparts by an average of 50 ranks across all categories. Both teams love to run, and both defenses love to stop the run with Iowa only allowing 3.0 yards per carry on the season ranking 8th and Wisconsin and even better 2.9 ypc allowed ranking 5th. In coverage, the ypp allowed is almost as impressive as their run stopping numbers. Wisconsin ranks 3rd in yards per pass allowed and 2nd in completion % allowed. Iowa ranks 13th in ypp allowed and 41st in completion %. On offense, Iowa ranks 106th in passing and 71st in receiving PFF grades. Wisconsin ranks 50th in passing and 89th in receiving. Both offensive units won’t find much success in the air as both defensive secondary's are in the top 25 of coverage rankings as well. Wisconsin has struggled at protecting their QB ranking 88th in sack % allowed, which is another strength of this Iowa team that ranks 28th in sack%. The game will be a freezing cold game in Iowa and despite the total going over the last 3 years in this matchup - this one is primed for an under! Two unders in one week in 2020. We must be crazy, but for some reason I love them.

Tennessee -16 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Vanderbilt is a disaster his year as they just fired their head coach and lost 41-0 to Missouri last week. Tennessee is a horrible 2-6 this year and 2-5 ATS but according to Sagarin - they have played the most difficult schedule in the country. Tennessee still substantially outranks Vandy despite having to face the toughest teams in the nation, as their offensive line outranks Vandy’s d-line by an average of 22 ranks across all line yard categories and Tennessee’s defensive line and even better average of 38 ranks across all categories. The FEI ratings show similar mismatches as Vanderbilts defense is virtually the WORST defense by the numbers you can possibly get with an average ranking of 113th across all categories. Not much else to talk about this one. Tennessee wins in blow-out fashion.

Auburn -6 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
I’ve been reluctant to bet this Auburn team but this late in the season and the fact they’re 4-5 ATS gives us good value in this spot. This biggest standout surprise in the numbers, was despite only allowing 3.3 yards per carry on the season, Miss. State’s defense PFF run defense ranks an insanely bad 103rd, and that's Auburn's offense's biggest strength as they rank 13th in rushing according to PFF. Nix doesn’t handle pressure well, but Mississippi State is not particularly effective at it ranking 67th in sack% allowed. Auburn’s biggest weakness this season is their rushing defense that ranks in the bottom of most line yard categories but Mississippi State's offense runs at an insanely low % only 22% on the year, ranking dead last! Auburn’s strength is their coverage but it’s not like they have to be great against a Mississippi State passing offense that has struggled to implement the air raid - they currently rank 103rd in passing and 116th in receiving. Auburn's veteran offense doesn’t make many mistakes ranking 13th in giveaways per game where Mississippi State struggles, ranking #122nd in giveaways per game averaging 2.5! Auburn's defense has struggled on 3rd down ranking 123rd in the nation, but that's not an area old Leach has been successful at this season himself with his offense ranking #110 in 3rd down conversion percentages. Mississippi State has been very fortunate to cover the last two by a close margin less than 7 points, but I see no way in hell this one stays within a TD. Take the points.
 
Crazy sure but I went into that handicap leaning over but thought it was to high! Certainly can’t blame ya for playing under cause it feels a touchdown inflated to me! Scared tho. I lean canes, think it just smart to take the team who can get stops in this one. Gl today brotha
 
Season YTD: 60-52 (+3.13 units)
Week 15 Results: 6-2 (+3.8 units)

This is probably it for me until the bowls as I got all the write-ups done early in the week with the short card - good luck all!

Week 16: (write-ups below)
USC -3 (-106)
Iowa State +5.5 (-104)
Tennessee TT Over 18.5 (-106)
Tennessee +13.5 (+100) .5x
Ole Miss/LSU Over 74 (-110)
ND/Clemson Under 60 (-114)
Wisconsin -12.5 (-107)
Illinois +15.5 (-103)

USC -3 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Not only is USC playing for an undefeated 6 game season, I would think their team morale is a lot better than Oregon who is still finding their feet after 3 of their top 4 returning tacklers from last year all opted out of the season. They started off the season 3-0 against weak competition with Wash State and Stanford, and keep in mind when UCLA played them they didn't have DTR for the first time. Since then they have dropped their last two against a disheveled Cal and up and coming but super soft defense Oregon State. The biggest surprise this offseason has been USC’s improvement in their defensive secondary as they currently rank 14th in PFF coverage ratings, a big improvement from last year's 64th rating. They have a much better defensive unit then years past and much better than Oregon’s this year on paper as USC ranks an impressive 38th across all FEI categories while Oregon’s ranks a lowly 84th. USC’s explosive offense that ranks 23rd in passing PFF and 29th in receiving PFF, should have a great day against Oregon’s secondary that ranks 53rd in coverage PFF. We also have a significant edge in special teams as Oregon ranks one of the league's worst 123rd and have missed 3 of 6 FGs on the season where USC’s special teams is a middle of the pack unit ranking 62nd and their kicker has hit 8 of 11 FGs on the season. We should also win the turnover battle handedly if this years turnover performance to date is any indicator of how this game will play out as USC has been great at forcing turnovers this season ranking 3rd in the nation averaging 3 takeaways per game where Oregon struggles and have averaged 2.2 turnovers per game ranking #118th. USC had a great come back from behind win against a tough UCLA team last week (and with DTR back) and I think they ride off into the sunset with a soft cupcake undefeated PAC12* covid season under their belt. I bought to -2.5 with my book and you probably should too.

Iowa State +5.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
No surprise here if you’ve been following my write-ups. Had Iowa State in the first match-up and see no reason why they should be getting this many points again- It will most certainly be a close one. Sorry no real write-up in this one just go read my Week 5 write-up of this same matchup. Expected rain too which I think favors Iowa State the better running team.

Tennessee TT Over 18.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Tennessee +13.5 (+100) Risking .5 units to win .5 units
A true contrarian pick currently as of Friday morning most consensus sites show a HECK of a lot more gamblers on Texas AM and currently at pickmonitor there are 14 cappers that have selected Texas AM and 0 that have selected Tennessee. Tennessee’s biggest problem the last 3 years has been their QB play as Guarantano is an extremely turnover prone and crappy QB who currently has an absolutely horrid 32.9 handsfumble rating on PFF. His career has almost as many turnovers as it does TD’s and if you count all 16 times he put the ball on the ground he is very fortunate to only have the 7 fumbles lost in his career. After alternating backups and giving both prospects a chance, Tennessee looks to have finally found their man in Harrison Bailey. He sports a nice 67.7 completion percentage on the year and has averaged 8 yards per attempt with 3 TDs and 2 INT’s (both against Arkansas - his first game with real reps). One of Texas AM’s weaknesses this year has been their defensive line - as they rank 72nd in line yards, 74th in opportunity rate, 101st in power success rate, and 43rd in stuff ranking. An area where Tennessee has excelled all season and they outrank them in every category on the offensive line ranking 22nd in line yards, 30th in opportunity rate, 63rd in power success rate and 27th in stuff rankings. The FEI matchups show a strong advantage to Texas AM but QB play should be factored into the horrible offensive numbers for Tennessee and I think they catch Texas AM a little off guard who has been off for two weeks and will be taking their 3-6 conference opponent lightly as this will be the first time each team is matching up against each other since their current coaching staffs took over. Pruitt has also had a history and coached under Jimbo back in FSU in 2013 so he will know his opponent well.

Ole Miss/LSU Over 74 (-110) Risking 1.10 to win 1 units
First play I locked in after organizing all the numbers and comparing all the games. This one screams over and although it has shot up 3.5 points already I still like the over as this one seems primed for another 2020 100 point shootout. According to PFF, both offenses outrank their defensive counterparts by over 55 ranks. Ole Miss’s defense is absolutely horrible ranking 108th overall, 108th in coverage, and 106th in Run defense. Their offense on the other hand ranks 23rd overall, 11th in passing, 6th in receiving, and 25th in the run game. They should run all over this LSU defense that ranks 106th according to PFF. Both teams can’t tackle as LSU is ranked 83rd in tacking and Ole Miss 69th. According to FEI, we have more of the same gross mismatches, across all categories Ole Miss’s offense outranks LSU’s defense by 53 ranks. LSU’s offense (which now is much more potent than their season numbers suggest due to injuries/breaking in new guys) outranks Ole Miss’s defense by 28 ranks across all FEI categories. LSU should also run all over the Ole Miss defensive line who ranks in the bottom 5% of all categories, ranking 123rd in line yards, 114th in opportunity rate, 107th in power success rank, 106th in stuff ranking and 102 in sack%. Both teams are in the Top 10 of plays per game, with Ole Miss ranking 3rd and ranking 98th in average time off possession (insane stat on pace of play) The last 3 years in this matchup the game went well over the projected total and the numbers weren’t nearly as skewed in the offenses favor as this year. This should be an easy and fun one to have money on.

ND/Clemson Under 60 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Love this under as when teams face each other twice in one season it seems to favor the defense (especially defenses of this caliber) in the 2nd matchup in the few times this has happened in the modern-era (post 2000). I found 7 instances where teams faced off twice in one season and in 5 of the 7 games the totals were significantly under or under the projected total, excluding a few outliers like UCF/Memphis in 2018 where neither program has coached defenses for generations. These are two defenses that are in the top 10 of almost every advanced statistical category you could measure. The defensive lines are massive, with Notre Dame’s ranking 1st in line yards, 1st in opportunity rate, 4th in power success rate, 1st in stuff ranking, and 27th in sack%. Of course Clemson’s defensive line is also in the Top 15 of all d-line categories except one and is the norm for a Venables defense. In FEI, Clemson's defense has an average ranking of 5th across all categories and Notre Dame’s 17th. In PFF, Notre Dame’s ranks 9th in overall defense, 18th in coverage and 10 in run defense. Clemson, in PFF, ranks 4th in overall defense, 15th in coverage, and 3rd in run defense. The offenses get a lot of hype but they aren't nearly as high in each statistical category as their defensive counterparts. The best thing about this one was the fact the first matchup was an 87 point OT shootout which I think is driving this number higher, and I think this one stays well under the total, given the numbers of these two defenses.

Wisconsin -12.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Too much weight is being held on Wisconsin's recent poor offensive performance only averaging 7 points in the last 3 games but that was against the best 3 defenses in the Big 10 outside of Ohio State. This Minnesota defense will be a much easier opponent for them to throw around as they are ranked 112th in overall PFF defense, 96th in coverage, and 122nd in rush defense. Wisconsin’s offense that is typically great in the run game yet struggled the last three should have a great day opening up the entire offense and giving some relief to Mertz who looked excellent in his first two games as well. Minnesota’s offense lives and dies by their run game (rushing for 60% of the time) but unfortunately for them that is the strength of this Wisconsin team. They are currently ranked 12th in opponent yards per rush allowing only 3.2 ypc. Wisconsin’s PFF rush defense ranks 5th and none of the previous teams Minnesota has played had nearly as good of a run defense (except Iowa which blew them out 35-7) and I expect the final to be very similar to that one.

Illinois +15.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Really love this play as I think Penn State’s being overvalued after beating 3 crummy teams down in Michigan State, Michigan, and Rutgers. Illinois looks much better since Brandon Peters returned to the starting role as he was injured the first half of the season after being knocked out in the first game against Wisconsin. He’s an experienced veteran who spent two years at Michigan under Harbaugh before transferring to Illinois. Although not the best QB, his PFF grades have increased every season in every category - he seems to be the type to do well against soft defenses and struggle against tough defenses like he did last week against Northwestern's 5th best ranked secondary. This Penn State secondary is very exploitable and are currently ranked 81st in PFF coverage ratings. Illinois’s struggles on defense have come in the run game allowing 5.2 yards per carry on the season, but that’s not an area where Penn State excels as they rank 92nd in yards per carry only averaging 3.8 on the season. On paper, the one area we do have a huge significant edge on is the FEI offensive/defensive turnover rate as Illinois has been great at protecting the ball and forcing turnovers ranking 34th in offensive turnover rate and 7th in defensive turnover rate. Penn State has been the opposite as they are ranked 110th in offensive turnover rate and 111th in defensive turnover rate. As long as we win the turnover rate like we should and considering Penn State's defensive secondary woes this season I see no reason why Illinois can’t keep this game within two TDs.
 
Confirmation bias in usc is strong. You didn’t mention their run offense averaging 3.7 ypc and Oregon’s at 5.4. And usc run d gives up 4.51 pc. Oregon’s ypc and ypr dwarf that of usc! Running qb give them Fits. They barely beat Arizona!! game should be way closer than u make it sound
 
Joco said:
Confirmation bias in usc is strong. You didn’t mention their run offense averaging 3.7 ypc and Oregon’s at 5.4. And usc run d gives up 4.51 pc. Oregon’s ypc and ypr dwarf that of usc! Running qb give them Fits. They barely beat Arizona!! game should be way closer than u make it sound
Click to expand...

ducks have a elite yards per play avg. pretty sure they top 10 at 7.1 per play. You right bout usc run game as well but that pass game pretty sick with Slovis and a gang of nfl caliber wrs facing a duck team who 102nd in sack percentage. I dunno how he made it sound but I’d say it pretty likely to be close as shit as most usc games are. Couple ways to look at that, you could say it a negative or ya could say in what sure to be another close one usc has the edge already playing and winning many close ones! They should be calm and collected even if trailing and needing a score!!
 
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