Dapper Dan Picks - 2021 Season Long Thread

DapperDan

DapperDan

Pretty much a regular
Hey all been posting my picks and writeups here for the last few seasons and other online gambling forums for a decade now. Any feedback is welcome and good luck to all those who tail. Looking forward to chatting with some of you regulars, Bank you back?

First play of the season: (will count this game in Week 1 total after this week instead of adding a Week 0 to my spreadsheets)
Dapper Dan Picks 2021 season (0-0)

2021 - Week 0
Nebraska -7 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
This is a huge coaching mismatch and we have a very well established system entering their 4th year together at Nebraska and Illinois who did a total coaching re-vamp during the off-season with sub-par coaches. Brett Beliema is now the head coach at Illinois, he had a good run in the Big 10 over a decade ago at Wisconsin but has struggled since moving to Arkansas in the SEC in 2013 (first year went 3-7 at Arkansas) and moved on to a few assistant jobs in the NFL the last few years before returning back to college football this year. His offensive coordinator is Tony Peterson, who had a good run at Louisiana tech but he always struggled against the bigger schools and always in his first year establishing his offense. At Louisiana Tech, in his first year, he ranked 103rd in offensive yards per play and even though he improved to 12th in ypp in his 3rd year at L.Tech, he didn’t have the same success when he moved to East Carolina in 2016-2018, where he ranked 75th in his first year in ypp and dropped to 103rd in his 3rd year. Ryan Walters a very inexperienced defensive coordinator who piggybacked off the great defensive minded head coach Barry Odom at Missouri for a couple years but didn't have much success. Brandon Peters should start at QB who struggled at Michigan and hasn't been much of a threat anywhere with his athleticism, he went 1-3 as a starter last year with his one win being against Nebraska - REVENGE TIME! Over at Nebraska, Scott Frost is desperate for a good winning season after struggling his first few seasons since moving over to the BIG 10. He’s entering his 4th year with senior Adrian Martinez at the helm who has shown sparks of greatness but was often hampered by injuries in his first two years and prone to big mistakes, which he hopefully has learned from. Their strength should be their defense as Erik Chinader, who came from UCF with Frost enters his 4th year in the program as well with 9 returning starters and ranking 27th of total % of tackles returning on defense. Seems like the majority of public and handicappers are on Illinois moving the line down but I think the oddsmakers were closer to the actual spread with the opening line being -9. I bought the half point with my bookie down to -6.5 at -120 and you should too but I think we win this one comfortably regardless.
 
Thanks BAR, Good luck on the season

Dapper Dan Picks (will be adding some more Saturday morning)
YTD: (0-1) -1 units

2021 Week 1 -
Minnesota +14 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
We have a nice little experience chart mismatch in week 1 so we take the big dog who has proven capable of keeping up with tough competition. Minnesota is one of the most experienced teams returning by Phill Steele’s charts as they rank 1st in experience and Big play D ranks, 2nd in offensive line starts, 10th in tackles % returning and 28th in % of yards returning including starting QB Tanner Morgan and dynamic RB Mohamad Ibrahim. Their offense last season was well rounded, ranking 19th in efficiency, 24th in explosiveness, and 12th at finishing drives. On the other side you have Ohio State who ranks 129th in experience, 100th in o-line starts, and 122nd in big play D. On offense they rank 121st with only 45% of their yards returning and on defense they rank 128th with only 48% of their total tackles returning. They lost Justin Fields who accounted for most of their yards as well as extending plays with his athleticism and giving their playmakers time to find open space. Their offensive line struggled (even with Justin Fields running around back there) ranking 103rd in sack% allowed last season. CJ Stroud, redshirt freshman, isn’t nearly as fast or mobile and was a pro-style QB in highschool with only one breakout big run in his highschool career. He will be in a tough environment and there’s a good chance he’s not ready for the big-stage. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Ohio State as these big name schools are usually overvalued against these smaller schools. Good to see the majority on Ohio State as well.

Michigan State +3 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
I think the wrong team is favored here and although I think MSU wins outright I prefer to take the points to be safe in these BIG 10 defensive matchups. MSU’s offense should see a spark this season with transfer of experienced Temple starting QB, Anthony Russo, last year QB play was their biggest downfall ranking 122nd in INT % at 5%. The lack of a passing game also made it tough for them to run, as they only gained 10 or more yards on 17 runs of its 239 rush attempts, ranking 125th in the country. They have a very deep receiving corps this year and two new RB transfers to add to their stable of backs - I'm sure one will emerge as a star behind this (hopefully improved) veteran offensive line that returns all 5 starters and ranks 4th in total offensive line starts. Mel Tucker and Scottie Hazelton brought a whole new defensive scheme ast year switching to a 4-2-5. Expect the defense to make less mistakes and blown coverages with 7 returning starters in their 2nd year. On the other side of the ball, the inexperienced of Northwestern should be noticeable as they rank 130th in phill steeles experience chart, 112 in career offensive line starts, and 126th in Big play D rank. Last year although their defense was one of the best in the nation, only 4 starters return and their longtime Defensive Coordinator of 12 years, Mike Hankwitz, retired going out with one of his best seasons under his belt. Their offense heavily relied on Peyton Ramsey who is now gone and other players will have to step up and make plays but may take some time. MSU won last year in this matchup 29-20 and I think the score will be similar this season.

Indiana +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Looking forward to this season for Indiana as they had a great 2020 and return mostly in-tact with 19 returning starters, and many of them even expected to be backups as their talent level has risen. Starting QB, Michael Penix Jr is entering his 4th year working with Tom Allen and OC Nick Sheridan, and it shows as he looked like matured a lot last season completing 56% of his throws with 14 TDs and only 4 INTs averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. Their offense although not very explosive (ranked 99th in explosiveness) was great at finishing drives and long slow methodical drives ranking 31st in finishing drives and 31st in Field Position. Their defense was equally well rounded and they led the nation in red zone stop % and ranked 11th at finishing drives and 33rd in Field Position. They were very opportunistic averaging 2.5 takeaways per game (ranking 4th in nation) and are a very disciplined team ranking 5th in penalties per play. They were tough against the run last year only allowing 4 yards per carry. Iowa will need to establish the run as Spencer Petras isn’t much of a QB, ranking 114th last year according to PFF with a 56.9 passing grade. Iowa is ranked 112th in Phil’s experience chart opposed to Indiana’s 40th so that's another advantage. Indiana is 0-3 in their last 3 ATS against Iowa and this is the year to break that trend. I bought to +4 with my book and you should too if you can get -120 or below.


 
Best of luck DD,

I'm sitting out NW/MSU but if you were trying to convince me to take MSU, the only thing you'd have to tell me is that Hunter Johnson is starting at QB for Northwestern, which he is.
 
I’m so torn on what to make of Hoosiers this season? Imo one the toughest things for a program like them who have a great season is the following year when they all a sudden have expectations opposed to previous years when they had none! Just a watch and see type of thing for me, certainly understand taking the points in a big10 game that looks to be a low scoring affair!!
 
Thanks fellas for the kind words.

Ya Banker, I think last night was a good example with UNC and their high expectations, that was obvious trap line especially how line moved opposite way with world on UNC. Colorado State too. Got my tin-foil hat on this year as those were two obvious - too good to be true lines and sure enough they got murked last night. I laid off though but maybe one year so Ill be sharp enough to bet other sides of these. Most of my tin-foil hat specials in past ended in terrible bad beats

Week 1 Additions:
Rutgers -15 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
These two programs seem to be going in opposite directions as Temple is losing quite a bit of experience to the transfer portal including 3 starting linemen (one transferred to Rutgers), leading rusher, and 3rd year starting QB, Anthony Russo. They rank 108th in Phill Steele’s exp chart with ranking 104th in % of yards on offense returning and 105th in % of tackles on defense returning. Their coaching staff is sub-par after losing Geoff Collins in 2018, Rod Carey and his OC, Mike Uremovich have come over from NIU and have very short resumes and limited to small schools unlike Schaino on the other side who helped lead the 2000 Miami Hurricanes as DC to an 11-1 year. Their experience charts also show a mis-match as they rank 19th overall and 30th in offensive yards returning and 32nd on defense. 19 of their starters from last year return although their offense struggled a bit last season, it was still a drastic improvement from 2019 and their defense had its strengths including creating havoc in the backfield ranking 11th averaging almost 8 TFLs per game, a weakness of this Temple offense last season that ranked 75th in TFL allowed. Starting QB Noah Vedral is back with his young fresh offensive coordinator, Sean Gleeson who’s willing to take risks and big shots down the field and open up the playbook. Something last year was very limited without the returning experience and regulations implemented last season. I think Rutgers takes this one down easily despite them being 3-6 last season against an exclusively BIG 10 schedule, much more difficult than an all AAC schedule where Temple won 1 game and lost 6.

Arkansas -19.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Arkansas put together one hell of a coaching staff and I expect them to make big strides in their 2nd year despite struggling last season in an ALL SEC schedule. Barry Odom is a top tier defensive coordinator, interesting tidbit from 2012-2015 he improved every season in yards per play allowed, with two different teams. In ‘12-’14 he was at Memphis and ranked 39th 1st year, 35th, 2nd year and 14th in his 3rd year. Then he moved to DC at Missouri where he was ranked 3rd in ypp allowed in his first year but then he got promoted to Head Coach and the defense went to shit, HA!. Kendall Briles, outside of the last two years (you can't succeed if Taggart is your head coach and last year covid year) has led upper echelon offenses and from ‘15-’17 his offenses averaged a ranking of 17th in ypp. Their QB KJ Jefferson saw some action at the end of last year after crappy Felipe got hurt and I liked what I saw from KJ. He’s elusive and has that evasion quality thats hard to measure, size, and a pretty good arm. Rice on the other hand returns their same crappy coaching staff, New OC but Bloomgren runs a power run offense like he did at Stanford but that doesnt work at Rice when your offensive line is going to be pushed around by this SEC defensive line. In 2019 they were 3-9 and last year they were 2-3 and played extremely crappy competition, unlike Arkansas. Arkansas wins by 3 TD+.

Miami +19.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I am a biased Miami Hurricane fan so I will keep this short and sweet. Miami ranks 8th nationally in experience charts and 1st in total offensive line starts as 4 of the 5 starters return (and they all have a ton of experience). Alabama on the other hand ranks 124th in experience charts and lost 78% of their offensive yards last year ranking 129th in the league. Manny Diaz is back to calling defensive plays (for a few years he didnt when Miami defense was shitty but when he called their plays there were always top tier) Rhett Lashlee is entering his 2nd year as OC and I have him as a very highly rated OC with his stints at Auburn as a disciple of Malzahn afterwards at SMU went from 76th is first year to 31st in 2nd year. I will also be sprinkling some on the Miami ML too

UCLA +2.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Chip Kelly is returning for his 4th year with the same two coordinators and a very experienced team with 20 returning starters including starting QB, and mobile threat, DTR. All 5 of their starters on the offensive line return that were ranked 39th in line yards, 11th in opportunity rate, and 25th in yards per rush. UCLA ran for 200 yards in 5 of it’s last 7 games. LSU’s rush defense was a point of weakness last year as their defensive line (who all return) ranked 80th in line yards, 112th in opportunity rate, and ranked 94th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Although UCLA’s defense struggled last year, they improved tremendously from the year before averaging 1.27 yards per play less in 2020, leading the nation by that improvement category. LSU defenses was one of the worst statistically in the school program and brought in a new defensive coordinator, Daron Jones, who has never been a defensive coordinator at the collegiate level before and has a resume full of assistant secondary coaches for various NFL teams. Their offense couldn’ run the ball very effectively at all last year and ranked 108th last year in yards per rush attempt. I got a really bad line on pickmonitor which I used to track but you should have got at least 3 points but I think UCLA wins regardless. If you’re an action Junkie be sure to sprinkle some on the over too. Bookies already starting with screwing with everyone's minds early with these line movements as the total for this one opened at 70.5 and dropped to 64. This scared me off the total so.

Cal -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Nevada TT Under 24.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Tired of hearing these small schools being hyped after putting up “BIG NUMBERS” against their cupcake all in conference shit schedules last season. Nevada is one of them, their offense “improved tremendously” from last season increasing their points per game from 21 in 2019 to 30 in 2020! Of course they did, their schedule was a joke with their toughest opponent being San Jose State with a Sagarin strength of schedule ranking of 108th. Last year Cal had more Covid protocol BS then any other team so the poor numbers last year shouldn’t hold much weight. They only played 4 games and before each game 50% of their team told they couldn’t play with back ups everywhere. Head coach Just Wilcox knows how to coach defense and is one of my top rated defensive coaches and he has a very experienced team and QB Chase Garbers returning who I really like and has battled injuries in years past. Expect me to be betting this Cal team a lot this year as I have them highly rated and go ahead and take their TT win total for the season at 6 wins.
 

DAPPER DAN PICKS​

WEEK 0/1 RESULTS: 5-4 (+0.75 UNITS)​

SEASON YTD: 5-4 (+0.75 UNITS)​


More to come tomorrow morning....
Week 2:
Air Force -6 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Even though these academy matchups are usually close games there’s reason to believe Air Force will run away with this one like they did last season when they beat down Navy 40-7. Air Force has a record number of turnbacks (their version of red-shirts), 35 this season due to the weird COVID scheduling last year and many players sitting out who saw lots of action in 2019. Starting QB, Haziq Daniels returns who averaged almost 10 yards per carry against Navy last year. Navy looked in-capable of stopping their rushing attack allowing 7 yards per carry, whereas on offense they could barely muster 2.5 yards per carry themselves against Air Force, a good indicator that Air Force was dominating in the trenches. Air Force did lose a lot of their starters from last season, including all five starting lineman on offense but they looked good against Lafayette averaging 5.5 yards per carry rushing for 370 yards. Navy on the other side loses their starting QB from last season, and this years frontrunner who started last week, Tai Lavatai, got injured in the 4th qtr last game so expect to see a heavy dose of Xavier Arline who struggled the few times he did see action as he only carried for 3.5 yards per carry last season and doesn’t take care of the ball well which could be disastrous in this Navy option offense, expect to see a few turnovers from him. Navy’s program doesn’t look to be in good shape after last year's 3-5 record against a weak schedule and getting blown out 49-7 in week 1 by Marshall. Air Force wins this game soundly. This is also one of the largest PFF mismatches on paper if you look at the game 1 grades for each team compared to their offensive/defensive counterparts.

Michigan -6.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I was a little worried about what to expect out of Michigan last week after losing good ole defensive mastermind Don Brown (Arizona now - bet!) this year but they looked strong in their first outing against a very tough Western Michigan offense. They allowed an opening drive TD and a TD at the end of the game when it was 47-7 but besides that stifled the Broncos offense who only averaged 5.2 yards per pass and 3.9 yards per rush. Offensive Coordinator, Josh Gattis, finally looks to have found a good starting QB in Cade McNamara as the offense averaged 12.7 yards per pass attempt and 7.8 yards per rush. I have Josh Gattis as a highly rated offensive coordinator as not only did he help lead Alabama in 2018 to a national title he also helped turn around the Penn State offense who ranked 120th in yards per play in his first year in 2014 (as a WR coach) but in 2016 he took over play calling duties and they ranked 17th in his first year and 16th in yards per play in his 2nd year before going to Alabama. Washington’s football program may see a big drop off this year as they lost program changing head coach, Chris Peterson in 2019 to retirement. Jimmy Lake was promoted from DC to head coach from within but has virtually no head coaching (or important assistant roles) outside of his long term at Washington. OC, John Donovan was interestingly enough the OC at Penn State in ‘14-’15 (when Gattis was the WR coach) and got fired in 2015 as Penn State had a horrible offense in 2014 and 2015 as they were ranked 120th and 83rd in ypp in his two years when he called the plays. Both coaches will be familiar with each other’s offenses but Michigan has a much higher level of talent and athletes so I think they win by atleast two TDs.

Pittsburgh -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Looking forward to what Pat Narduzzi has in store with this Pitt team for his 6th season. If you’re unfamiliar with Narduzzi, he was the defensive mastermind behind the tough Michigan State teams for almost a decade before he moved to head coaching at Pitt. I love finding these defensive minded coaching gems that churn out powerhouse defenses every year by coaching and strategy. His offenses have struggled but this year many return including starting QB, Kenny Pickett who should be comfortable in leading this offense to a winning season in his 5th year and 3rd year with new OC Mark Whipple. Although I like the hire of Heupel at OC Im not assured he has the right tools in place with his two QB transfer, Joe Milton III and Hendon Hooker as neither are accurate passers and Milton can’t even run so expect them to struggle this week against a tough Pitt defense that likes to bring pressure blitzing 37% of the time last season, ranking 37th in the nation and that pressure resulted in sacks as their sack % was ranked 6th overall in the nation at 11%. Pitt’s two corners can hold their own as Marquis Williams produced the 4th best incompletion rate among power 5 cornerbacks at 24% last season and they have Damarri Mathis returning who sat out all season due to injury - in 2019 he had the 3rd lowest carch rate allowed amongst power 5 cornerbacks. I expect this to be a big surprise as Pitt wins easily against this typically over-rated SEC team.

NC State -1.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
After the departure of Eliah Drinkwitz as OC in 2018, NC State had one of the worst offenses in the country in 2019 as they brought in two new co-OCs. Last year they brought in Tim Beck and all things considered, he did a great job implementing his offense during covid year despite injuries to starting QB and other key components to his offense. They improved their offensive points per game by 8 points and in terms of Expected Points added Margin last season, they were the 9th most improved team in the nation and 1st in the ACC. They have 8 starters returning including starting QB, Devin Leary who looks much more poised and better deep ball than the alternatives. He led the team to a 3-1 start and got injured in the 4th game last year which is when Bailey Hockman took over. Dave Doereen knows how to coach defense and they were an above average defense last season ranking 40th in efficiency, 47th in explosiveness, and 56th in finishing drives. Their defense struggled in a few games last season when their newly appointed defensive captain, Payton Wilson was out (including the bowl game). He became a major part of their defense last year and accounted for 108 total tackles. Almost everybody on the defensive side of the ball returns with a few starters from last season expected to be backups to new fresh talents and transfers that are coming in. Miss State should have lost last week to LA tech but squeaked out a victory. They are largely the same as last season with 16 returning starters, 8 on both sides of the ball but that's not a good thing when you have the numbers they had from last season (and a 4-7 record). Their offense ranked 107th in field position, 74th in efficiency, 104th in explosiveness, 114th at finishing drives. Don’t expect it to improve much under returning sophomore Will Rogers who only averaged 5.7 yards per attempt with 11 TDs and 7 INTs. Their offense relies on them being able to run the ball when the defense drops 8 but they could do that at all last season ranking 126th in yards per carry at 2.4! Their entire offense struggled at protecting the ball as they ranked 120th in snaps per turnover and ranked 101s in adjusted turnover margin. I think NC State squeaks out a win here.
 
i love the acc schools traveling to the middling big bad sec this week!! redemption week for the acc, these 2 of the 3 acc squads im higher on than most anyways! (BC being the other, they get their crack at mizzou next week!! i so hope mizzou beats uk and sets up a nice line there!!)..

i hear what you saying on michigan and you may very well be right, lake doesnt appear to be the right guy and if that the case it probably will get ugly. i just cant justify the shift from nearly a pick'em to a 7 point spread cause of one week.. it certainly could end up being no power rankings were right bout udub coming into the season and it turns out laying a td at the big house was a steal! it just goes against my core values to even consider. hope you cash with a 24-7 win! or anything that keeps it under 48.5!!

i fell for unc same as you did with hoosiers, we both learned a lesson!! lol.. i cant believe indy even started penix, i didnt know before the game but it was obvious that kid should not have been playing, what was he maybe 60%? he sure couldnt step into throws in the pocket, it was a disservice to him and anyone betting indy for the coach to have him out there instead of letting it be known before hand he wouldnt be playing that game cause he was not ready!!! i feel like rutgers has my tin foil antenna buzzing for this week, they a total stay away for me cause it sure feels easy to take them as small favs vs cuse!!!!lol

i didnt see your last week adds till now, i hate you for cashing on hogs last week!! (actually im glad someone i like got the money i lost on rice!! lol),, still dont know how rice didnt cover that game? hell i thought they were gonna win for 3 quarters!!! that game cost me bunch of parlays in a RR!!!!my day went from coulda been huge to just ok. lol...

gl this week!!
 
Nice, whats your take on Mizzou/Kentucky? I kept going back and forth and decided to lay off for now, could make an argument for both sides.

Ya Rutgers this week was another one I was eyeing close but think Im going to lay off....Where are the dogs this week? Cant find one! Maybe Buffalo or Oregon but not loving either. I think its going to be a short card for me maybe 5-6 bets.

Ha, ya on hogs - I performed my sacred ritual where I turned the game off in disgust and counted the money gone in my head which helped lead us to victory! Hope a few more of those pop-up. Baseball was brutal this season where teams were winning 7-8 innings and all of a sudden last two innings flip-flop!
 
DapperDan said:
Nice, whats your take on Mizzou/Kentucky? I kept going back and forth and decided to lay off for now, could make an argument for both sides.

Ya Rutgers this week was another one I was eyeing close but think Im going to lay off....Where are the dogs this week? Cant find one! Maybe Buffalo or Oregon but not loving either. I think its going to be a short card for me maybe 5-6 bets.

Ha, ya on hogs - I performed my sacred ritual where I turned the game off in disgust and counted the money gone in my head which helped lead us to victory! Hope a few more of those pop-up. Baseball was brutal this season where teams were winning 7-8 innings and all of a sudden last two innings flip-flop!
Click to expand...

lol. I was doing my total jinx myself move where I was adding up all the money in my round robins once rice cashed! You’re welcome! Lmao.

I hear ya with the dogs, tons last week, this week feels like slimmer pickings, most the short lines I lean fav this week when I liked dog mls in most them last week. I’ve got some on my list but I dunno how many make it. Cal+11.5 for sure a bet for me. I lean app st but hesitant (you a canes guy ain’t you, what you think bout that faneIllini could easily stay within number. I’d love for ncst to flip but Dunno if it will. I dunno if I can stomach any more rice but lean them again (they burnt me several last year also!). I like udub in principal but more comfy w under. Understand why you played Michigan. Still looking at arky st vs Memphis. Really not a lot of great options imo.

I have no idea on mizzou/uk cause I dunno bout uk offense? Apparently they finally have a kid who actually a real qb! That be a nice change for them, love what they done on the defensive side the ball especially the secondary which should be tough for mizzou. I think coach drink does a good job getting more out of less but don’t think they all that talented, need some better recruits heading there! As I said I hope mizzou wins cause I would like it to set up a better line on BC next week but I’m not real hopeful. Gun to head i lean the better defensive team at home but it a pass for me.
 
Very good read on the ncst write up pal, I loved how creative ncst offense was last year! I thought they did a fantastic job designing and calling plays to get the right guys in space!! It def hurt them when Leary went down but they still managed to be tough. I didn’t realize coach drink came from there? So he went from ncst oc, to App St HC for a year then flipped that into the mizzou job? Talk about a fast riser, wonder if he can get mizzou back to good enough to parlay that into a bigger job in next few years? Lol. I knew app st ran thru several coaches real fast amd he was one of them.

I was impressed by pack defense last week but that still where I have questions (it was south Florida after all!) and am curious to see how they defend Leach spread air raid dink and dunk type attack. Gonna go out on a limb and hope they donf do anything redic like lsu did last year and sit back in zone to get picked apart! Lol.
 
Ya Cal just let me down last week (and a lot last year so) I didnt take a hard look at them yet. I suppose I was fortunate to hit the TT under for Nevada last week so they split 1-1. They just seemed to have the opportunity to run all over Nevada averaging 5.7 yards per carry but every time it was 3rd and short they would throw the ball and not convert. WHOLE 2nd half they just threw every done despite them running the ball right right down the field the first drive. Will dig into TCU tonight but ya think CAL definitely too being undervalued this season but didn't show up week 1.
Ya lots of questions marks I had too many on Kentucky's new QB so going to lay off too.....hard to judge totals too as crowds definitely have an effect and last year there were none and are some states still having regulations? caps? Who knows?
Ya Drinkwitz certainly got around quick and seemed to be scooped up by good coaches in small windows, Malzahn, Harsin, Doeren......
 
I was all over Nevada ml last week so they didn’t let me down, (suck on that hogs! Lol)., I for real love Nevada this year tho (I have their season win total over as well). Cal def jumped on them (I was a tad worried at beginning) but Wolfpack qb Strong is the real deal, he made some big time throws all throughout that game. I was actually impressed w cal defense to hold Nevada to what they did!! I think Nevada defense pretty solid this year also. Cal offense will always be the worry but I do like their d, I think they will do a fine job keeping duggan from running around and he not nearly the threat from the pocket that strong is (who a legit 1st round nfl qb imo!). I think cal run game will have a little more success this week against tcu who always plays that 2 lb 5db look! Should set up better for Cal but I also expect another defensive type game so getting 11.5 a lot imo. I could see them beating tcu honestly. At worst I don’t really think it more than a 1 score game.
 
Ok I'm on Cal banker! Looked into TCU and 22 transfers left, hell ya! sprinkling some on ML too.

Week 2 adds:
Utah -7 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I think this will be a really good Utah team this year after a few setbacks last season on defense (last year only had 2 returning starters and covid blah). This year 9 starters return on defense and even though their numbers took a hit last season in their 5 games, they still led the PAC 12 in rushing yards per game allowed and passing efficiency defense. On offense, we have a 5th year senior very experienced transfer, Charlie Brewer who came over from Baylor. He’s started the last 4 years at Baylor, and although last year wasn't great, the whole staff had been overhauled after all the off-field things they had going on. In 2018, he was the 10th highest rated QB according to PFF ranks. 4 out of 5 starters return on the offensive line and rank 29th in total starts. They have one of the best receiving option TE’s in Brant Kuithe who can break tackles (ranked 2nd last year) and get lots of yards after the catch. On the other side you have BYU who lost starting QB and leader of the offense Zac Wilson who started for the last 3 years. They were one of the top defenses in the nation last year (against a weak schedule) but only 4 starters return on that side of the ball. I think Utah wins big and re-establishes themselves as one of the best teams in the PAC this year as they have all the tools in place. Also if your an action junkie, tease them and Michigan together which seems a pretty safe bet to me.

California +11.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Ugh, hope I’m not being stubborn here going back to Cal again this week. Hopefully their offensive play-calling improves as they struggled last week after establishing the run well they chose to throw on 3rd and short for whatever reason. Although TCU had a decent go last year in their all BIG12 schedule (weakest conference) going 6-4, but they did lose 22 transfers this off-season. 3rd year starter Max Duggan padded a lot of his stats on the ground last year against the weak BIG 12 defenses. He’s much more of a better runner than passers as in 2019 he ranked 11thth in passing according to PFF, and last year ranking 72nd. Wilcox knows this and will have his team in position to contain him and force him to beat them with his arm, which is unlikely. This is just too many points, but I suppose it’s warranted considering Cal’s 1st poor week and struggles last season. Hopefully they turn it around this week and maybe even sprinkle some on the ML here.

Virginia -10.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
I love this Virginia team again this year, Bronco Mendenhall may be one of the best QB recruiters/coaches in college football if you look at his resume going back to BYU. After losing Bryce Perkins in 2019, he came right back with another stud QB, Brennan Armstrong, who graded 11th in offense in PFF last season. He has a much better arm then Perkins and although he doesn't have the speed Perkins did, he is tough to bring down and can do damage with his legs. Illinois lost their starting QB in week 1, and has a slew of other injuries on both sides of the ball. They were fortunate as hell to beat Nebraska in Week 1 who shot themselves in the foot over and over again, and last week they lost to a conference USA team in which they were favorites (knew I shoulda faded I just knew very little about UTSA football and 1st game of the year for them). Sorry for a short write-up, games in less than two hours and I got things I gotta do before kick-off! I bought this to 10 with my bookie but use pickmonitor for tracking so couldn’t buy down.
 
love the utah play.. think you did right thing with cal, that loss last week wasnt a bad loss by any stretch,, id take nevada to beat tcu also!! although tcu defense is kinda built to defend offenses like nevada so be a interesting game. good news is they not as well equipped to stop cal from lining up and running it right down their throats!! i cant imagine cal defense will let duggan beat them with his legs which as you mentioned his best quality.. i guess i could be getting suckered in but this line seems redic to me, and tcu being picked by over 80% the ppl who play yahoo ats pick contest! think that a big overreaction to cal losing to a team who could very well be MW champs (i have either them or sjst beating boise in championship game). gl today!!
 
Ya I saw we have like the same card banker :cheers3: lol I was leaning on a lot and I checked in the forums mid week and saw you were leaning the same way on many so locked those all in. Good start - hopefully can end the day wining
 
Week 2 Results: 5-2 (+2.93 units)
Season YTD: 10-6 (+3.68 units)

Week 3
V-Tech +2.5 (-105) Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
My favorite matchup of the week, I resisted the urge to put 2 units on and simply did 1.5x units. Lots of reasons to love this pick, Vtech has had a significantly more difficult schedule to date (ranking 65th in Sagarins) opposed to W. Virginia’s 185th Sagarin SOS and yet still outrank W. Virginia in most stat categories and PFF grades. Vtech’s grades have been great, ranking 32nd on offense and 69th on defense whereas W. Virginia, only having played Maryland and Long Island University, grade out to 58 on offense and 71 on defense. Even though Bud Foster, the defensive guru, retired in 2019 he groomed his replacement in Justin Hamilton who has been promoted up within the ranks to DC. Last year they had some growing pains and had an anemic offense but this year to date they look great - holding their first two opponents to under two TDs in the game (and both their opponents put up 50+ in their only other game this season). Applying pressure has always been Vtech’s defensive recipe and this year their players have been flying around racking up 18 hurries in the first two games, 9 in each game and accumulating an 11% sack rate, ranked 25th in the nation. They’ve also broken up 10 passes (5 in each game) and forced 3 fumbles in their first two games. WVU is a one dimensional, pass-happy team and have only averaged 3.24 yards per carry in its first two cupcake games, and only running the ball 32% of the time. It’s impressive what WVU head coach Neal Brown did at Troy but not sure those types of offenses can thrive in the Power 5. It also requires a very specific type of QB to implement and not sure if Jarret Doege is the guy for the job. Last year he put up decent numbers but I think any Joe Schmo could in an all BIG 12 covid schedule.. Think V-tech puts a beating down on WVU and wins this one easily, wrong team is favored.

Alabama/UF Under 60 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Despite the defensive troubles Florida had last season (stupid contact tracing and twisted prove to me you’re not sick ideology) - If you look back at Todd Grantham’s defenses throughout his career you will see he is a proven winner and one of the best defensive coordinators in the league going all the way back to UGA from ‘10-’13 where he put out a consistent top 20 defense. According to PFF, they’ve had the 7th best pass rush in the nation in their first two games, which could be an issue for Alabama’s inexperienced offensive line that currently ranks 97th in pass blocking. Both defenses are well coached obviously and rank in the top 20 of tackling and I don't think you will see as many blown coverages and mis-tackles as last season (last year UF ranked 101st in tackling!). According to PFF, Alabama’s defense is top notch again, ranking 4th in overall defense, 8th against the run, and 19th in coverage. They should present problems for 5th year junior Emory Jones, who never secured a role as a starter in the past and was beat out by that scrub Felipe Franks and then Kyle Trask. Florida will be at home so hopefully a packed swamp will rattle Bryce Young (has this millennial ever seen a real crowd before). Either way I think both offenses struggle as they are both relatively green, with Alabama’s ranking 129th in % of yards returning and UF ranking 123rd in % of yards returning from last season. Bet the under despite last years 98 point shootout (which I think is inflating our number)

FSU +4.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This is a must win game for FSU after losing their first two and they're led this week by the scrappy McKenzie Milton who’s the type of QB who will leave it all out in the field and do whatever he can to put his team in position to win. Milton put up insanely good numbers in his 3 years at UCF, completing 61% of his passes, for an average of 8.4 yards, almost 9000 yards passing, 73 TD’s and 23 INTs. He also put up over 1000 yards on the ground as he can beat you with his legs if need be. Wake Forest’s defense is atrocious but you wouldn't know that from the stats this year as they had two soft opponents but they’re about to get a wake-up call. Last year they ranked 96th in defensive efficiency, 82nd in defensive explosiveness, 86th in field position, and 98th in finishing drives. Don’t expect much to change against a harder schedule with 8 starters returning and the same old crap DC, Lyle Hemphill who has been DC at Wake Forest since 2018 where his defenses have ranked 86th in ‘18, 79th in ‘19 and 87th last year in yards per play allowed. I'm not too worried about the loss to Jacksonville State as that program has been a notorious thorne in the side of FSU program, including last year when they were up 21-14 at half before FSU came back and won. Despite giving up a lot of yards on the ground, FSU grades out to the 7th best run defense according to PFF. This should be a one possession game and worst case if Wake Forest has a size-able lead coming into the 4th qtr, I think FSU will put up a few garbade TD’s and make it close like they did against Notre Dame. But honestly I think FSU wins outright so sprinkle some on the ML for you degens.

Northwestern/Duke Over 49.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Usually both these teams have stronger defenses but there’s reason to believe they won’t be as good as years past from the first few games of the season. Both defenses rank in the bottom 10% of total tackles returning from last year with Northwestern ranking 2nd to last (and lost their DC I mentioned before). In game 1 Northwestern gave up 326 yards on the ground against Michigan State which could be problematic against Duke's star running back, Mataeo Durant who ran for 255 yards in his opener, averaging 8.8 yards per carry. Duke also has given up a lot of yardage on the ground despite playing two horrible opponents in its first two games it still allowed average over 4 yards per carry and I think Northwestern will run at will also. Both offenses should be able to run the ball, opening up their offenses and play action that both teams ran about 30% of the time last season. Both defenses are in the bottom 20% of most PFF categories in their first two games with Northwestern struggling in every department ranking 100th overall defense, 89rd in coverage, 103rd in run defense, and 88th in tackling. Duke’s biggest weakness has been their coverage ranking 113th and not applying much pressure to QBs ranking 88th in the pass rush. Northwestern’s Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson should finally start to see some life as his offensive line has struggled with protection but that was against defenses that were much more difficult up front. Look for Northwestern to take more deep shots as Duke loves to play cover 1 (ranking 11th in the nation last season). Expect a turnover or two as that has been a thorn in this Dukes side so hopefully they come in good field position for the over with short-fields and maybe a defensive TD even. Take the over!
 
Fsu one of the few dogs i kinda like today. Think I’ll join ya since I have so few, just dunno I trust them. Milton started that disaster last week and was really bad!’ It was his 1st start in a long time so maybe that was it?

I love the under im the tech/wvu game, I just can’t find 50 points in that one no matter how hard I squint, I don’t even think a few special teams plays will get it there. No real thoughts on side, gl today brotha.
 
Thanks fellas. Ya Milton started last week, I didnt watch the game as I don't have the patience for FCS teams lol but from what I read it was more on WR's and playmakers not finding space instead of Milton but I watched him against Notre Dame and seems like the same old McKenzie. 3 years long enough to recover from career ending injury? Ha, he's more of just a cinderalla story for us UCF almuni and we all love them even though I'm not big knights fan. Good luck this week Bank, I see you like Boise too which is always good to see.

Week 3 Adds:
Boise State -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Last Season Oklahoma State was 8-3 but 2-3 against Top 30 competition. Only 5 starters on offense return to a team that, unlike Mike Gundy’s typical teams, have relied on their defense to win games. Their offense lost all of it’s playmakers and it’s shown in their first two games as they only gained 190 yards on 71 carries against Southwest Missouri State and Tulsa. Newly appointed offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn has no play-calling experience in his career. Okie State only averaged 25 points in the first two games and fortunately their defense has kept them afloat and sitting at 2-0 both games were one-possession wins over much weaker competition then Boise. Boise returns 8 starters on offense and 3rd year starter Hank Bachmeier seems to be meshing well with his group of talented receivers that may be the best in mountain west. Last year Khalil Shakur ranked 9th in FBS in receiving grades and graded slightly higher than he did in 2019. They brought in a new OC for the 3rd time in 3 years which I think will add a wrinkle to the already experienced staff and playbook. On defense, 8 return as well and first time head coach Andy Avalos has a lot of experience as a DC as he was working with Boise back in the Chris Peterson days and took over Defensive coordinator role when Harsin took over for many years and led an above average defense and ranked as high as 13th in ypp allowed in his 2nd year as DC at Boise. In 2019 Avalos went to Oregon to be their DC where he lead another 13th ranked ypp allowed defense. This is his first year back to lead the Broncos and I think they win this one big.

Penn State -5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Not much you can pull from Auburn’s first two games as the level of competition was ridiculously poor as Akron may be one of the worst teams in FBS and Alabama State equally bad just FCS. They will struggle against a Penn State defense that is typically one of the best in the nation behind Franklin and Pry. Auburns breaking in a whole new coaching staff with Brian Harsin leading and an interesting pair of Bobo at OC and Derek Mason as DC. I think Bobo can do what he did at Georgia and Colorado State but at both schools it took time for him to develop his players and put his playbook into place, not the first year and not with old Bo Nix. Bo Nix is terrible under pressure which I brought up in many past write-ups and Penn State will bring lots of it. Derek Mason will bring a whole new defense and unlike his predecessor Kevin Steele, Mason has no track record of leading tough defensive units and his defenses always struggled at Vanderbilt. After losing it’s first 5 games last season, Penn State has been on a roll winning the last 7 going back to last season. Their defense looks to have returned to form only allowing 23 points combined in its first two games and only allowed 2.96 yards per carry against Wisconsin and Ball State. On offense Clifford returns who has had some time to develop under new OC Mike Yurcic. He brings a whole new offensive philosophy to Penn State as he loves the Air Raid (and ran it well for 5 years at Okie State, 3 of which his team was Top 20 in ypp), which is quite the contrast from what Ciarrocca ran last season. They looked good in their first two games averaging 30 points and Clifford has played mistake free football, a big problem of his last season giving up 9 INTs. The Sagarin ratings agree this is a huge SOS to date mismatch as Penn State has had one of the hardest schedules ranking 18th in the nation while Auburns schedule is laughable ranking 231st since sagarin includes FCS. This is a white-out at home and although Penn State has typically lost these big games at home, I think they pull this one off.

Fresno State +11 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
If this Fresno State squad could keep it close with Oregon then there's no reason to think they won’t keep it close with UCLA. Fresno State, although a member of the mountain west has been beating up on it’s PAC 12 opponents going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs PAC 12. Fresno State showed lots of resilience and an ability to make adjustments as they had two turnovers that led to 14 points early in the 1st quarter against Oregon. Fresno States defense has been improved this year (although against weak competition, except Oregon) they are currently ranked 10th in overall defense, 33rd in coverage, 8th against the run, 30th in the pass rush and 3rd in tackling. UCLA’s offense has struggled in pass blocking ranking 119th in passblocking and their defense always struggles at tackling last year ranking 113rd and this year only improving to 93rd this season. Two huge mismatches that favor our big dog. Fresno State has all their weapons on offense returning this year and they were largely screwed last year from the COVID regulations in the mountain west as they had 0 spring ball and did not start practicing in person until Sept 25! I expect this to be a shootout

Stanford -12.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Did anyone bet Stanford last week to upset USC? Don’t think I saw anybody expect that. Stanford looked a lot better on offense without interchanging QBs like they did in Week 1 but credit to Kansas State’s secondary as they are one of the best in the nation, a huge difference from this week's opponent in Vanderbilt who ranks 100th in coverage. Stanford got shredded by Kansas State on the ground and beat deep as Skylar Howard bought tons of time in the backfield on down field throws. Fortunately for them Vanderbilt doesn't have nearly the same rushing attack, averaging 2.78 yards per carry against the formidable Colorado State and East Tennessee State. Stanford in contrast has faced the 8th most difficult schedule according to Sagarin. Stanford has one of the best secondaries although their numbers to date don’t show it but thats because they played two tough offenses in USC and Kansas State. Expect them to feast on a much weaker offense without playmakers or a dual threat QB. Stanford should run all over Vanderbilt too like their first two horrible opponents did averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Like most shit programs, Vandy’s tackling is a joke too ranking 96th in the nation. They are also sporting a whole new coaching staff after an 0-9 season with horrible stats, where Stanfords coaching staff is much more well established and will be prepared for the road trip to the almighty SEC. Stanford wins in blowout fashion.
 

DAPPER DAN PICKS​

WEEK 3 RESULTS: 4-3-1 (+0.27 UNITS) ​

SEASON YTD: 14-9 (+3.95 UNITS)​


Week 4 (only two for now, more in the morning)
Virginia ML (-175) Risking 1.75 units to win 1 units
I usually don’t like to take these big ML’s but I think we win this one easily. Like I mentioned in last week's FSU/WF writeup, Wake's secondary should get exposed. Last week it didn't happen because of poor QB play, Milton doesn’t seem to be the same and Jordan Travis never had much of an accurate arm and played the majority of snaps. Both FSU’s QBs pff grades are below 65 on the season, a big contrast from Virginia’s QB Brennan Armstrong who is currently the highest ranked QB according to PFF with a 93.9 pass rating. Their receivers have been explosive too, ranking the 8th highest receiving grades between D. Wicks, BIlly Kemp, and huge 6’7 TE, Jelani Woods, who has the 5th highest receiving grade amongst TE’s. Virginia’s defensive numbers aren't great on the season but most of that was due to last week's shootout with UNC. Wake Forest won’t have the firepower to keep up with Virginia's offense and even though on paper, their numbers and grades on the season are much higher than UVA, that’s only because their Sagarin SOS ranking for Wake Forest is 200 (meaning many FCS teams have played harder schedules than them) This is a revenge game as last year Wake beat Virginia 40-23, but a big reason that happened was good ole Brennan Armstrong was on the sidelines (the one game he missed all season) and a Lindell Stone started and averaged only 4.6 yards per attempt and 2 INTs. Virginia should blow them out but since it’s a Friday night game and the refs will most likely be out in full force, we’ll take the conservative ML approach with this one.

Auburn -27 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I don’t usually take these huge spreads unless I’m taking the dogs but like this one. Auburn should dominate the line of scrimmage and run the ball down Georgia State’s throat like UNC did two weeks ago averaging 5 yards per carry. Auburn’s defensive line should dominate as well as Georgia State’s offensive line has been horrible ranking 115th in passblocking and Auburns pass rush ranks 21st. Georgia State’s rushing grade is the worst in the nation ranking 130th, Auburns rush defense grade is 1st in the nation - biggest mismatch possible on paper. We also have a huge special teams mismatch as Auburn’s special teams ranks 3rd and Georgia State’s ranks 116th. Bo Nix and the offense will look to get back into sync after getting beat up by Penn State last week. I'm annoyed as in week 2 I had UNC -26 circled vs Georgia State and laid off and they ended up winning by 42. I think this one is also comfortably won like that matchup by 1-2 TD’s and with ease.
 

DAPPER DAN PICKS:​

WEEK 3 RESULTS: 4-3 (+0.27 UNITS)​

SEASON YTD: 14-9 (+3.95 UNITS)​


Week 4 Adds:
Texas Tech +9 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Looking at the numbers for this game you would think T. Tech is the 9 point favorite but instead the big school Texas again is over-valued. Texas has been getting gashed on the ground, ranking 123rd in PFF rush defense and allowing 5.2 yards per carry. T. Tech’s rush defense on the other side is currently ranked 9th in PFF rush defense and allowing only 2.1 yards per carry. Oregon transfer Tyler Shough for Texas Tech seems to be a good fit, completing 68% of his passes and almost 10 yards per attempt. This should be a problem for the Texas secondary who ranks 120th in allowing opponents to complete almost 74% of their passes. On offense, Texas replaced starting QB Hudson Card after struggling against Arkansas, and Casey Thompson will get the start. He’s a 3rd year junior with very little starting experience and only seen snaps in meaningless blowouts. He will have a short leash too and expect to see both QBs interchanging as Sarkisian looks to find the leader of his new offense. Texas Tech’s defense, although against weak competition has been stellar not only against the run but have also only allowing 5.4 yards per pass, ranking 17th in the nation and they have also generated sacks, ranking 39th in the nation in sack % - where Texas’s offensive line has struggled, ranking 86th in sack rate allowed. After two losing seasons in his first two years as coach for Texas Tech, Matt Wells looks to make the turn-around he did at Utah State and beat the in-state rival who are moving on to the SEC next season. We should be comfortable in this one as Texas Tech usually keeps it close and no reason to think they won’t do that again this year the way these two programs have been playing.

SMU +9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Had to do a double take when looking over TCU’s defensive stats as they were god awful - they currently rank 97th in yards per rush allowed, 124th in yards per pass allowed, and 113th in points per play. Granted these stats are only from 1 game as TeamRankings does not include their FCS opponent and is only pulling stats from their only other game against Cal, it’s still a cause for concern, especially against this explosive SMU offense. SMU is a very experienced team with 20 returning starters and the only non-returning starting on offense is their QB Shane Buechele but that void is being filled by Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordcai who has been great so far in his first 3 games completing 73% of his passes, for 9.3 yards per attempt with 16 TDs and only 2 INTs. He was a great fit for Dyke’s system who last year hired Lincoln Riley’s younger brother Garret Riley as offensive coordinator (Stolen QB from his own bro!) Last year as his first year as an OC, his offense ranked 21st in yards per play, 29th in OFEI, 19th in ODE, and 14th in OAY. This year although the FEI rankings aren’t out yet, the traditional stats show they have been dominant as well averaging 5.9 yards per carry (ranked 11th), 8.7 yards per pass (ranked 27th), completing 70% of their passes (ranked 18th) and have yet to give up a sack with their 5 returning line-man (granted against weak competition). Although SMU defense has struggled typically they have good PFF grades on the season against their weak schedule. They currently rank 18th in overall defense, 11th in pass rush, 81st in secondary (passing isn’t TCU’s strength) and 11th against the run. Granted these numbers are largely skewed due to the level of competition but they should be good enough to hang around close enough for SMU to cover 10 but I wouldn’t be surprised if SMU wins outright, like Cal almost did. I bought this one and Texas Tech to 10 if you can get below -125 with my bookie it's a good buy in my opinion.

Toledo/Ball State Under 56.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
These were two highly touted MAC offenses coming into the season that have been in shambles in their first 3 games both falling to 1-2 on the season. Jason Candle’s offense at Toledo seems to be digressing since his glory years in 2016-’17 when he was in the Top 10 of yards per play. Last week, they put up 6 points against one of the worst teams in college football and somehow only generated 14 yards on the ground in 28 carries against Colorado State. It all starts at their offensive line as they have given up 14 sacks on the season which has limited their offense. Ball State’s offensive line has struggled at protecting David Plitt as well with a sack% of 8.14 (ranking 89th). Both offenses are in the bottom 10% of most categories, with Ball State averaging 3.6 yards per play! These teams are well-versed in each other offenses as they were the two top contenders in the MAC. Last year Ball State squeaked out a victory 27-24 and it’s hard to imagine this game with more points scored then last years considering the offensive line struggles on both teams. Take the under.

TexAM/Ark Under 47 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
These are two top 10 secondary's in passing efficiency defense with two relatively inexperienced and unproven QBs in a rivalry match-up. In week 2, Texas AM lost their starting QB Haynes King and in came Zach Calzada who struggled against Colorado’s secondary. KJ Jefferson on the other side can definitely move with his legs, but he struggles in the passing game even though they haven't shown it thus far thanks to their easy schedule. Upsetting an continually over-rated Texas team isn’t impressive and their secondary ranks 79 in passing efficiency compared to Texas AM’s #1. Both teams will rely on their run game to try to take pressure off their QBs and not make mistakes. Looking at the advanced numbers, both defenses dominate in almost every category. Texas A&M defense is top 10 in every SP+ category, including DSP+, DFEI, Points per opportunity, success rate, and they rarely give up big plays ranking 5th in explosiveness allowed. They know how to create pressure and sack QBs ranking 16th in sack rate on the season. Arkansas’ defense ranks 30th in SP+, 35th in DFEI, 13th in points per opportunity and 14th in success rate. They rank 34th in sack rate and they don’t give up many big plays either ranking 31st in explosiveness. Texas AM although haven't given up a ton of sacks on the year (ranked 52nd in sack rate allowed), they have allowed lots of pressure (ranked 83rd in PFF pass blocking) and they have 2 offensive lineman recently listed on their injury report (one missed last week) in an area they were already thin. Think this is a low-scoring hard fought game where points come at a premium so lets bet the under.

UCLA -4 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Although Stanford has dominated this rivalry there's plenty of reasons to see UCLA come out with a big win this one. The strengths of this UCLA team line up perfectly with the weakness of this Stanford team. Stanford has allowed 5.85 yards per rush on the season including 247 yards to Vanderbilt last week! DTR and UCLA love to run, rushing 63% of the time, and they do it well averaging 5.1 yards per rush (ranking 28th). They don’t pass much but when they do, they've been effective averaging 11.1 yards per pass (ranking 4th in the nation). Stanford’s secondary is very thin with 3 CB’s on their injury report and their 3rd leading tackler, senior safety Noah Williams. UCLA should do all kinds of damage on offense and don’t think Stanford's bland offense can hang or play from behind. Unlike Stanford’s offenses of the pass, they currently ranked 87th in overall offense, 78th in passing, 103rd in the run game, and 86th in run blocking. Although UCLA’s defense isn’t top notch they are improved considering their tough opponents and they have racked up 20 TFLs in 3 games, broken up 14 passes, and forced 7 fumbles! Last year, UCLA ran for 291 yards on 51 carries against Stanford but still managed to lose in double OT. They held Stanford to 132 yards on the ground on 36 carries but were beaten by Davis Mills in the air and don’t think McKee is that caliber of a QB yet. Don’t expect that to happen again this year and it’s time for this superior UCLA team to beat down their in-state rivals.

Kentucky -4.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Sorry no writeup for this one, busy week :(

Indiana -9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Haven’t seen anyone on Indiana and I’ve had them circled all week (love when this happens). Everyone's down on them, despite them playing one of the hardest schedules to date and facing two of the top 10 defenses in college football. Their Sagarin SOS ranking is 16th and even with their tough schedule, their defensive numbers are great - only allowing 4.5 yards per play (ranking 29th), 5.5 yards per pass (ranking 18th) and only allowing opponents to complete 51% of their passes (ranking 14th). WKU loves to pass, a little too much making them a bit predictable, passing 70% of the time. After putting up some horrible numbers on offense last year (against a shit schedule) They brought in a new coordinator, Zach Kittley, with relatively no experience at calling plays and lack of much of a resume. He’s highly regarded as being an assistant QB coach at T. Tech when Mahomes was there, but that's about it. Last 3 years he called the plays for an FCS team Houston Baptist, but this defensive front is going to be a hell of a lot different then what he’s used to seeing. WKU has only played two games, one FCS opponent and then lost to Army by 3 and gave up over 330 yards on the ground. Their two opponents have averaged 5.35 yards per carry and Indiana’s offense should finally get some much needed breathing room and blow this W. Kentucky team out of the water.

Cal/Washington Over 47.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Against the grain kind of pick since for the last several years when these two teams have met they have gone well under the total but both defenses have struggled so far this season with Washington having a stronger defense but Cal’s offense is much more developed and should be able to put up points like Michigan did. Cal’s defense has given up 30 points per game including 28 against last week’s FCS opponent Sacramento State. Both teams prefer to pass and although Washington’s secondary has been great thus far they have been beat up on the ground allowing 4.9 yards per rush, ranking 98th. When Cal does run the ball (only 44% of the time) they’ve been doing it effectively averaging 5.2 yards per carry, ranking 22nd and ranking an even higher 4th in PFF run grades. Washington rush defense ranks 103rd according to PFF. Cal has been getting gashed on the ground too, ranking 81st in PFF rush defense and haven't been tackling well, ranking 113th. Their defense has allowed their opponents to score in every red zone possession, ranking last obviously in the league and Washington has scored in every red zone possession on offense, ranking 1st. I think this is an unusual high scoring matchup between these two teams as this season's numbers imply.
 
Damn, once again we on same page with quite a few!! (Great minds and all!!).

Only disagreement we have is I’m on wku vs Hoosiers. It not that I’m down on Indy (I did expect them to have a bad season tho), it that I’m pretty high on wku! I think you underselling the transformation they made this offseason not only the coaching staff but the coaches brought over damn near the of entire passing game from houston baptist! The qb, wrs, everyone from a very high powered attack! Dunno if they pass too much? They your typical air raid attack! I’ll give ya that is Hoosiers defensive strength so it is good on good.

I been auto playing wku overs as I don’t think books have made the correct adjustments to their totals. Think they kinda figured out with this one tho, I mean I think this the highest total and you obviously correct this their toughest defense they have faced. I was still torn between wku and over, just don’t trust pennix but I could be making a mistake. I think Hoosiers will have to hang a really big number to cover this, like at least 37-41 imo. I just don’t think ya can fully stop this air raid attack! What I like bout the points is the back door is always open with a offense like this, when teams start sitting on lead and playing prevent they will pick them apart in garbage time! Army had them way down, and who plays better with a lead than army? And wku damn near completed the comeback for the win (prob should have but fell just short!). The more I talk the more I think I’m gonna add this over even tho I hate playing side and total in same game!

Last thing ill say bout it is are we sure Hoosiers up for this game or really know what kinda game they walking into here? Could be they come in with hair on fire looking to right the ship, certainly possible. Or could be they kinda down on themselves and this offense catches them totally off guard! Does feel to me like a game if Hoosiers come in determined their offense be the ones doing the heavy lifting, which again makes me wish I had gone over instead of side! Lol. I’m def adding ovsr!
 
You the only other person I have seen who likes that cal/udub over! I’m mad at myself cause we could have had that at 46 earlier in the week!! So obviously some money likes this over w us! Lol. Anyways I left off my card cause I think 47.5 a significant loss in value for us. Seeing you like it also I might add it later on if my day going well!!
 
you have several i leaned same way but i had so many already i havnt played as of yet.,,. texas tech im obviously too late but i think you got a winner there, i think they will have a lot of success rushing the ball on horns.. real good chance i end up on bruins with you.. that uk line is stinking, dont see how anyone plays scary tho.. gl today brotha
 
Nice call on WKU banker - they are a tough pesky team and a good little gem to bet on - although Im hesitant to touch this week against michigan state - you touching? . My favorite thing is checking in on these forums on thursdays and seeing you on some of the same plays again this week. We've won every week so far this season and lets try to keep the trend going......more to come in the morning


Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 4 Results: 6-4 (+1.1 units)
Season YTD: 20-13 (+5.05 units)

Week 5:
Arkansas/UGA Under 48.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Going back to the SEC under “well” as we have another SEC defensive powerhouse matchup with two top 10 defenses. Arkansas’s secondary moved from 8 to 4th in passing efficiency after last week’s beatdown of Texas A&M. Their line absolutely pestered Zach Calzada with 8 QB hurries and 3 sacks, which led him to only completing 20 of 36 pass attempts for 151 yards and an INT. Georgia’s secondary moved from number 2 to number 1 in passing efficiency defense after slaughtering Vanderbilt and holding them to only completing 5 of 18 passes for 24 yards and two INTs. Georgia’s rush defense may be even better and is anchored by their 6’6 nose tackle, Jordan Davis, who is an absolute mammoth that you can’t miss on the field due to his enormous size. They have only allowed opponents to rush for 2.3 yards per carry, ranking 8th in the nation. Both defenses are extremely good at 3rd down ranking 10th and 11th in the nation and both defenses are great in the red zone ranking 22nd and 35th in the nation. In terms of yards per pass attempt allowed Georgia ranks 1st at 4.6 and Arkansas ranks 2nd at 4.7. Both in the top 10% of completion % allowed. I can go on and on in defensive stat categories for these two teams and how they far outweigh their offensive counterparts. Good defenses always trump good offenses unless you have some insanely good QB athletes and WR weapons like we did some of the last few seasons with Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Fields and Tua but neither of these QBs are on that level. Jefferson is banged up and shouldn’t be as mobile as he was in the first few games. He impressed me with some throws in last week's game but I’ve still seen a bad side to him in the first few games and let's see if Georgia's defense can force him into poor throws. As long as we don’t have a few defensive TD’s I think this one stays well under the total in true SEC fashion.

Michigan +2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Another shocker of a line pointing to an overvalued Whisky team. Last week I had Notre Dame +7 circled big and laid off as the bookies confused everyone, opening Wisconsin as a 3 point fav and pushing to 6.5 leaving everyone scratching their heads wondering “what am I missing in this game”. Kudos to them for their trickery but I think they’re off again with this line and Michigan pulls the win out here as Michigan heavily outranks Wisconsin in most stat categories and yet somehow is still a small dog (and line moving for them!). Wisconsin’s struggles stem from their QB as Graham Mertz starts for the 2nd year. Last year his numbers were poor, only averaging 6.4 yards per pass with 9 TDs and 5 INTs and grading out to the 89th best passer in the league according to PFF. This year he’s taken a significant drop as his lack of athletic ability is limiting him and defenses are dialing up the pressure, he currently is only averaging 6 yards per pass and has 6 INTs and only 1 TD, grading out to the 138th ranked passer on PFF. Their offensive line has struggled to protect him ranking 81st in pass blocking and their run-game isn’t what it was last season ranking 79th in rush offense. They will definitely struggle to put up points against a Michigan defense that has been great this season, who rank 5th in total defense, 48th in pass rushing,19th in coverage, and 4th in rush defense. More concerning though is Wisconsin’s defense that has been surprisingly bad as well, ranking 73rd overall, 100th in coverage, and 24th against the run according to PFF. They have been banged up on that side of the ball and this week more of the same as their best CB, Faion Hicks who had 4 pass breakups and 5 total tackles in last week's game is listed as questionable after he left at the end of the game. Michigan should put a beating on Wisconsin and it’s taking a lot of discipline in me not to fire away on this one for 2 units. Definitely like to see most ESPN pundits and public polls are expecting the undefeated Michigan to fall this week. Oh, Contraire my friend.

Pittsburgh -3 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Pitt matches up very well against this Georgia Tech team. Georgia Tech loves to run the ball (60% of the time) and that is the strength of Pitt’s defense who rank 7th against the run according to PFF, and have only allowed 3.1 yards per carry. Georgia Tech has been shuffling between two mediocre QBs in Jordan Yates and Jeff Sims. Neither has shown stand-out potential and Sims took over last week after Yates started and led them to victory running all over the sad UNC defense. Combined, the QBs have only averaged 6.3 yards per pass (ranked 96th) and they haven’t got much protection from their offensive line, with over a 10% sack rate allowed (ranking 109th) - another huge mismatch on paper as Pitt’s defense is great at getting pressure and sacking opponents, ranking 11th in sack rate. Pitt loves to pass, rightfully so as their QB Kenny Pickett overtook the #1 passer spot in PFF and their receivers are ranked 4th, granted we will see some regression as much of this is due to their poor schedule but G. Tech’s weakness on defense is their secondary. They rank 70th in coverage, have allowed opponents to complete 66% of their passes (ranked 100th), and for an average of 7 yards per pass (ranked 50th). If this turns out to be a close one, we also have a strong advantage in the kicking game as Pitt’s kicker has yet to miss a kick this season and Gtech’s kicker is only making 62% of his kicks, but I think Pitt wins by a touchdown atleast.

Mississippi +14.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I’ve got a propensity for pain betting against Alabama all the time but I love me some Ole Miss Rebels. The Rebels offense led by 3rd year starter Matt Corrall is one of the most explosive and efficient in the nation, FEI ratings were just officially released this week and Ole Miss offense is at the top of all the ranks, ranking 1st in OFEI, 1st in ODE, 1st in OPD, 1st in OAY, 2nd in OPP, 1st in OTD, and 4th in OVD. Alabama’s defense isn’t quite up to par to seasons past and their defensive FEI counterparts rank out like this, DDE they rank 44th, DPD they rank 44th, DAY they rank 42nd, DPP they rank 43, DTD they rank 46th and DVD they rank 54th (If you don’t know what the FEI rating mean goto footballoutsiders.com for explanation). This is just too many points, much like Florida was able to keep it close with Alabama. I don't see how Bama can win by more than 14. They might come out firing and take an early lead in true bama fashion but Ole Miss’s big play ability will put up points eventually. Ole Miss defense has also improved this season (nowhere to go but up when you’re last) and despite the struggles they had last season, their defensive coordinators have a track record of strong defenses, especially co-defensive coordinator, DJ Durkin, who’s been all around the league including coaching at Stanford, Florida in ‘13-’14 where he led a Top 25 defense (and faced Saban a number of times), Michigan, and then Maryland before returning to the SEC at Ole Miss last season. By the PFF grades, their coverage ranks 45th, run defense 62nd, and overall defense 57th so middle of the pack. Alabama’s offensive line has continued to struggle this season despite the weak schedule, they are currently ranked 75th in pass blocking and 66th in run blocking (I believe next week the advanced line stats are finally released). Ole Miss keeps this one close and worst case we get a back-door special with +14.5, lock in while you can.

Kentucky +8.5 (-105) Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
By the numbers this Florida offense is not nearly as potent as it was last year between the loss of Kyle Trask and their top 3 receivers. Emory Jones currently ranks 75th in passing and their receivers rank 61st. Kentucky’s offense under transfer Will Levis has seen some life and they actually outrank Florida’s offense in every almost every PFF category with a 26th ranking overall, 12th in passblocking, 56th in passing, 40th in receiving, 67th in rushing (one grade UF outranks UK), and 15th in runblocking. On defense, Kentucky heavily outranks UF’s defense in most categories including UK’s secondary where they rank 16th in coverage and Florida ranks a terrible 125th. UF’s run defense has also struggled ranking 78th and they have been poor tacklers ranking 98th. The FEI numbers concur and show a strong advantage to Kentucky on the defensive side and I always love taking this many points with the better D. Although Kentucky has notoriously struggled in this rivalry, I think they keep this one close and the historical ATS trends are definitely giving us extra value. Don’t be foolish enough to believe that the outcomes between these two schools a decade ago (or even 5 years ago) has any bearing on tomorrow's matchup considering all the turn-over in players and coaching staff. I can’t stand people who use that type of old historical trends between programs to justify picks. 1.5x units and most likely the best bet of the weekend.
 
So far I’ve just bet the over in the Wku game, wanted to get on it early cause loved it below 62. Turned out to be a good move cause it has steamed up since (id still play it up to 66 but not for as much). My concern for them (and reason I prefer over) is I don’t think sparty will settle for fgs the way Hoosiers did, sparty run game much better and wku tackling sucks so I’d expect they more efficient once they get into scoring range. That said on the other side I think sparty pass defense is worse than Hoosiers so I def think wku will continue scoring. I don’t think they gonna have a problem hitting 30 so sparty will have to hang a monster number to cover!! Almost certain I’ll be on wku again, I think last week should give them some belief they can go to soarty and compete, wouldn’t be shocked if they pull the upset this time! Team w ball last wins kinda game!
 
Like that Uga under quite a bit, I’ll be on that and probably ol piss with you. Bama always scares me but if they gonna lose a game before sec championship or playoffs this be the one imo.

Think I prefer the under in pitt/tech game to a side but agree Pitt probably the right side.

Not touching um/wiscy, hate betting ranked dog vs unranked team, fighting a uphill battle as I’m pretty sure the unranked fav wins/covers a good 60 something percent the time. I looked at that total a long time, 43 might still be too freaking high! Points be tough to come by me thinks!

If ya made me play Gators/cats id take the home dog also but think it a pass for me. Gl this weekend
 
Check out Nevada if you havnt yet, I think they beat boise. Only concern for me is I think best way to attack boise is to gash their soft ass run d which obviously ain’t Nevada’s game. That said I’ll take strong who I think a legit nfl prospect against that bum Bachmeier all day every day. Let me know how you seeing it.
 
Even though I don't have them as official picks I think I'm going to tail you on that WKU Total and Nevada.....I know quite a few mushes on Boise State and quite a few sharps like yourself on Nevada. I watched Boise vs Okie state and was in shock that okie state was gashing them like they did - they only completed 6 passes for 74 yards and still won! Good luck today Banker, Im loving this card and had to hold myself back from going over 11 plays this week, lol I usually like to cap at 10.


Week 5 Adds:
FIU +10.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
There’s a few coaches you need to keep on your fade list and Willie Taggart should be up at the top. Especially in year two where he inherited a nice little built up program from Kiffin. On the other side we have father time coaching in Butch Davis who has been coaching since the 70’s with a new young OC, Andrew Breiner to hopefully put some life in the passing game. FIU QB, Max Bortenschlager has been around college ball for a while now as he started most of 2017 but then was injured in 2018 and 2019 before transferring to FIU last year. Although he struggled last year and split time with other QBs, he has shown improvement this season under new OC, completing 9.5 yards per attempt with 8 TDs and 3 INTs on the season. N’Kosi Perry transferred to FAU to avoid being a backup at Miami, from someone who has watched lots of Hurricane games and Perry play, he’s just not very good in any aspect of the game. He can’t really run or throw the ball and his career stats reflect that with a 1.9 yards per rush attempt on 142 carries (they just kept trying to run him!) and completing just over 50% of his passes for a 6.4 yards per attempt. Last week against Air Force he completed 11 for 33 for 78 yards and an INT. The grades show advantages to FIU on both sides of the ball, and special teams as FIU grades out to the 6th best special teams where FAU grades out to 96th. The only stat category FAU has an advantage in is their secondary that ranks out to 13th which is largely because of the level of competition they played. FIU has some threats on offense and receivers rank out to 13th in the nation. I also love to see a big tackling edge as father time knows how to coach fundamentals and has his team ranked 4th in the nation at tackling and Taggert of course, doesn’t and his team ranks 86th in the nation according to PFF. This is a rivalry game played just down the street from my house and both schools always come to play, although FAU has covered and won the last 4 years, I think is giving extra value and this game should be within a TD and wouldn’t be surprised at all if FIU wins outright after FAU got beat down last week by Air Force, 31-7. Sprinkle some on the ml too.

Baylor +4 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
The biggest surprise last week for me was watching this Baylor offense against Iowa State. Their QB Gerry Bohanon is quite the athlete and very elusive, he has yet to be sacked this season, yet to throw an INT, completed 73% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt and 7 TDs. He’s dynamic and keeps defenses in check from applying too much pressure as he can buy time and throw the ball down the field. Baylor's rushing attack has been great too and overall their offense is ranked 1st according to PFF. Their recent coaching changes are really paying off. Dave Aranada struggled in his 1st year as a head coach last year (asterisk covid) but has historically led one of the top defenses at Wisconsin and then LSU so it will be interesting to see how his schemes translate to the BIG 12, but I think hes a great defensive coach. This year to help on the offensive side he re-united with Jeff Grimes, who led a very potent offense the last 3 years at BYU, and was with Aranada back at LSU from 2014-’17 where he was the run game coordinator and led one of the best rushing attacks in the country for two of his 3 years. I think Oklahoma State’s defense should struggle to contain especially with their 111th ranked tackling grade. Last week was quite the surprise as Oklahoma State blew out Kansas State 31-20, but all of their points came in the first half as Kansas State’s defense quickly adjusted and contained the Cowboys offense and also gave up a defensive TD and two fumbles lost. Kansas State isn’t the same team they were last year or at the beginning of this season since Skylar went down. Im not sold on this oklahoma state offense, they prefer to pass but the last two weeks have been running like crazy as Sanders has struggled. I think this will be a shoot-out and a close one possession type game so I will gladly take the 4 points.

Boston College/Clemson Under 46 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This is a bit of a no-brainer if you seen these two teams play this season, compared to last season they are two very different teams that matched up with a final score of 34-28 in 2020. Both teams lost their starting QBs as Lawrence went to the NFL and Jurkovec got hurt in Week 2 this year. Dennis Grosel will surely struggle as this will be the first real defense he faces this season and he hasnt done anything remarkable against the weak secondaries he has faced. Boston College will surely run the ball often (like they have been 67% of the time) and play possession football as they have been ranking 36th in Time of Possession % this season yet ranking 117th in plays per game at the same time (MILK THAT CLOCK BABBY!) Clemson, due to their offensive struggles have been in the same boat, ranking 124th in plays per game but mainly because their offense has been unable to move the ball through the air or on the ground. Boston College’s rush defense is much impreved from last season, holding opponents to 3.3 yards per carry and ranking 4th in PFF rush defense. They actually outrank Clemsons defense in most categories according to PFF with an 11th overall, 10th in coverage and 3rd in tackling. But they should regress as well as those stats came against the 172nd toughest schedule according to Sagarins SOS scale. I’m not too worried about Clemson’s defensive injuries as Will Venables can throw anyone out there in his defensive schemes and be successful. Year in and year out he loses tons of guys from his defense to the NFL and year and year out he comes back with a Top 10 defense. This BC offense would be fortunate to score more than 17 points in this one and hard to see Clemson breaking 28 so lets go with under in this matchup. Surprised the number is as high as it is.

Auburn +3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I love this Auburn team, except for Bo Nix, please Harsin bring in Finley and let him lead the beatdown of his old team. I’ve always liked Finley, even back at LSU despite not having great numbers he was a rookie thrown into action against an all SEC schedule, but last week he led the Auburn offense to victory over Georgia State and may be the right fit as unlike Nix he’s not afraid of pressure and can stay in the pocket long enough for his WR’s to get open. Tank Bigsby should have a field day against this LSU rush defense who ranks 96th according to PFF. Their defense has been HORRIBLE on 3rd down’s ranking 124th in the nation allowing opponents to convert 56% of the time! This is great for Auburn who has called all the right plays on 3rd down and converting 54% of their own on offense, ranking 12th in the nation. LSU has had 0 running game despite playing a very weak schedule to date they have only averaged 2.86 yards per carry on the season, expect them to get less than 50 yards on the ground against this top 10 auburn defensive front that is ranked 1st in the nation in rush defense according to PFF. I think we have a strong coaching advantage too as I love the combination of Brian Harsin and Mike Bobo. Ed Oregon I think in years past has relied on strong coordinators in his successful teams, but this year he brought in two new guys on both sides of the ball that I’ve never even heard of before so expect them to struggle this season despite their 3-1 start. LSU has also been battling injuries all season and have 12 players listed on their injury report. Auburn hasn’t won at Death Vallery since 2012 but the stars are aligned this year for a big upset win on the road.

Arizona State +3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Arizona State TT over 26 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I love this play and couldn’t decide whether I wanted to do 2 units but decided to split between the team total and points. Jayden Daniels enters his 3rd year as a starter and he’s a mobile threat and can pass the ball, deep and accurately. Although this season he only has two passing TD’s and 3 INT’s, it's largely because this Arizona State team has been able to run the ball so effectively, averaging 5.5 yards per carry (ranking 15th in the nation). Jayden Daniels career stats are great as he has completed 62% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards and 24 TDs and only 6 INTs (this year half came but not all his fault). UCLA has thus far been great against the run ranking 10 in the nation allowing 2.4 yards per carry but a closer look at their schedule would explain why, none of their opponents could run the ball and less about UCLA’s defensive front that has always struggled, definitely look for some regression in this game. Last week DTR, clutched his throwing shoulder in pain for several minutes after every throw, towards the end of the game he took a really hard fall on his shoulder where he was pulled but then came back for the final TD and two pointer where after scoring instead of celebrating he rolled on the ground in the pain - can’t imagine he’s 100% and would be very limited at throwing. UCLA has struggled to protect him when they do pass the ball with a sack rate of 8% (ranking 94th in the nation). Arizona State has been AMAZING at sacking their opponents QBs averaging a 13.5% sack rate (ranking 3rd in the nation) Their coverage has been stellar too only allowing opponents to complete 46% of their passes (ranked 4th) and for 5.5 yards per attempt (ranked 15th). UCLA’s dfense has struggled to tackle all season ranking 91st in the nation and Arizona State knows how to wrap up ranking 11th in the nation in tackling. I somehow picked another head to head matchup this week where the team I picked has lost ATS for the last 4 years, risky trends to bet against but like I mentioned in the others, gives us value. Also like betting a 1-3 ATS team vs a 3-1 ATS team which is the case in this match-up too
 
DapperDan said:
DapperDan said:
Even though I don't have them as official picks I think I'm going to tail you on that WKU Total and Nevada.....I know quite a few mushes on Boise State and quite a few sharps like yourself on Nevada. I watched Boise vs Okie state and was in shock that okie state was gashing them like they did - they only completed 6 passes for 74 yards and still won! Good luck today Banker, Im loving this card and had to hold myself back from going over 11 plays this week, lol I usually like to cap at 10.
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full disclosure i have been wrong on boise practically every game since week 1 where i did cash on them vs ucf!! i didnt bet the utep game but i did lean utep..

i lost on boise in that redic okie lite game.. it was insane that boise DC refused to adjust to the fact cowboys had no interest in throwing a pass!! for some reason boise continued playing light boxes with the lb"s 5-6 yards back and the safeties a good 10-12 yards off the los,, go figure okie lite was able to gash them for 6-7-8 yards per carry!! even still got totally cheated in that game by a inadvertent whistle that took a boise scoop and score off the board with only a few minutes left in game!!! total horse shit!!

then i played utah st vs boise last week and once again not convinced i was on the wrong side, utah st goes for 450 yards and only manages 3 fucking points!!! not sure i been wrong with any the bets on these boise games yet keep finding ways to lose!!!!

i wish nevada had the ability to run the ball better as i think that the best way to attack boise but end of day we getting a legit nfl qb who engineering a really good passing attack vs Bachmeier who is stir fried shit imo.. Strong will force boise to score to keep up and that will lead to Bachmeier mistakes as that what he does best!!! i have Nevada winning outright so the points just a bonus!!!
 
Sorry fella’s had a busy week so the write-ups aren’t as extensive as usual and I am missing two write-ups as I just didnt have time to finish this morning and am battling the effects of a hangover.

Week 5 Results: 8-3 (+5.38 units)
Season YTD: 28-16 (+10.43 units)

Week 6:
Oklahoma (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1 .5 units
I love Oklahoma in the red river rivalry this week. Texas is a run first team accounting for 65% of their plays (ranking 10th) but they would be running into the biggest strength of the Oklahoma defense and their d-line that has only allowed opponents to rush for 2.9 yards per carry (ranked 17th in the nation). Much like when Texas was unable to run on the ground against Arkansas they had to pass which they've struggled at as Casey Thompson is the 68th ranked passer in the league. He will be pressured offense against this Oklahoma front that is currently ranked #1 in the pass rush and Texas’s offensive line hasn’t been great in pass blocking ranking 60th in the nation. Oklahoma can pass the ball very well with Rattler who currently ranks 11th in the nation in passing which is actually a drop off from last season's grades but he’s completing 76% of his passes for an average of 8 yards per pass. He also has a lot more weapons and can spread the ball more around than Texas as their receiving corps is ranked 12th in the nation where Texas hasn't been as great, ranking 68th. Last year when they faced off, Ehlinger was harassed constantly being sacked 6 times and 7 QB hurries. But unlike Ehlinger who could beat them deep and deal with the pressure, Casey Thompson hasn’t done well under pressure and his passer ranking drops to 99th in the league under pressure this season. I had to do a double-take when reading the Sagarin strength of schedule ranks as somehow Texas ranks a bit higher but I disagree (Sagarin usually spot on) and think Oklahoma’s opponents have been tougher as TCU is not up to par with seasons past and W. Virginia, Kansas State and Nebraska are tougher opponents. Another reason to love Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS and Texas is 4-1 ATS (always giving value to the poorer side of the trend). I love this play and a few other sharps I know like them too and we all came to the conclusion independently so we add a .5x and make this one a 1.5x unit play.

Michigan -3 (-105) Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
My other favorite play of the week at 1.5x (if we hit both of these then I may start firing away a whole 2 units soon). Lots of Michigan doubters out there and although I’m not a big Harbaugh fan if you look at his history he knows how to win and I think he put together a great team this year by the numbers. He turned a Stanford program around from an 1-11 team the year before he arrived to a 12-1 team in his fourth year in 2010 (a lifetime ago) . By the PFF grades and FEI ranks, Michigan has a strong advantage on both sides of the ball with a stronger SOS too. Their offense is a top 10 efficiency offense ranking 4th in overall offensive FEI, 9th in offensive efficiency, 11th in yards per rush, 16th in yards per pass - they’ve only been sacked on 1% of their passes ranking 2nd in the nation, and have only allowed 11 TFLs on the year (ranking 1st of course). Nebraska has struggled in the big game, and unlike Cade McNamara Martinez has shown time and time again to make that dumb turnover or take that bad sack. He’s been sacked 11.26% on the season (ranking #119) and he has a higher INT % at 1.5% then McNamara has in sack%, meaning we are more likely to see a turnover or two from old Martinez then to see a sack from McNamara. Michigan defense is ranked 33rd in the nation with an 8.23% sack rate. They don’t make mistakes, only averaging 0.2 giveaways per game and ranked 40th in penalties per play, two other stat categories we have a significant edge in. Special teams included as Nebraska’s kicker has only made 44% of their field goals and leaving their special teams ranking 68th in the nation where Michigan’s kicker is hitting at 89% and their special teams ranks 31st in the nation. Nebraska has been playing better as of late as expected under the great head coach Scott Frost but Martinez still isn’t that next level guy to lead his team to a win over this Michigan team. The last time Harbaugh faced Frost in 2018 it was a 56-10 beat down and although this game might not be as bad I think Michigan should win easily.

Michigan State/ Rutgers Under 50 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
This is a nice higher than expected number for two Big 10 teams that have stronger defenses than their offenses. Michigan State’s offensive numbers are great on the season in the upper 20% of most categories but it’s been against some of the poorer defenses in the league and they have yet to face a defensive team like Rutgers. Rutgers defensive numbers aren’t spectacular on the season but only because they played two of the best offenses in the BIG 10 with Michigan and Ohio State the last two weeks. They’ve still held opponents to 3.5 yards per rush (ranking 36th), holding their opponents completion % 's to only 53%, ranking 10th in the nation and sacking opponents often with a 8.9% sack rate, ranking 21st in the nation. Michigan State has given up quite a few sacks with a 6.78 % sack rate ranking 73rd in the nation so expect to see a few in that mismatch this week. Both offenses prefer to run as Rutgers has struggled at the QB position with Noah Vedral only averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. Their team has a 122nd passer ranking and their line has struggled too, ranking 83rd in pass blocking and 103rd in run-blocking. Michigan State always has a solid front and should get quite a few sacks of their own as their PFF pass rush ranks 37th in the nation. Their rush defense has been stellar too only allowing opponents to average 3.2 yards per rush (ranking 21st) so Rutgers will have to try to make some throws on them but Michigan State’s coverage ranks 24th in PFF so that's a big mismatch on paper and MSU’s defense should hold this Rutgers offense to under 17 points. Although last year there was ton of points put up in this head to head matchup, I think this year stays low-scoring like they usually do in the BIG 10 matchup/

Wake Forest -6 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
I was very impressed with this Wake Forest team in the two games I bet against them this season and am hoping to cash in on those mistakes betting with them this game. Sam Hartman has been around for a while now and is that scrappy, quick release, backyard football type athlete who can make you pay if you don’t honor the ground game although he’s not a great runner. In his 4th year with the offense you can tell they are really gelling well and their offensive line has great timing with their backs as you can never really tell if the deceptive Hartman is running, throwing, or handing the ball off. Syracuse hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent with their toughest offensive opponent being Liberty and they still gave up a lot of yards and 21 points in a near loss to the flames. They’ve allowed opponents to complete 74% of their passes ranking 128th in the nation and are average across most traditional and FEI defensive stat categories. Their offense has struggled ranking in the bottom 10% of most FEI categories as they've been unable to pass effectively averaging 5.9 yards per pass attempt, ranking #110th in the nation. Tommy DeVito started off as the season as their QB but after some poor play Garret Shrader took over but isn’t much of a throwing threat and only completed 18 of 38 passes in the last two games he started for an average of 5.9 yards per game. Wake’s biggest weakness of their defense is their secondary but they have yet to face a tough passing team yet and Syracuse shouldn’t pass much on them either. Syracuse’s pass blocking has also been a problem allowing opponents to sack them at 9.38% sack rate, ranked #113th in the nation, an area where Wake Forest defense has excelled with aa 8.75% sack rate ranking 24th in the nation. Wake’s defense is surprisingly in the top 20% of most FEI categories but that has a lot to do with their opponents as they rank 113rd in the Sagarin SOS ranks but Syracuse isn’t much better at 92nd. Wake Forest should win this by at least a TD.

UVA +2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Sorry no write-up this week for this one fellas as I was very busy and got a little drunk last night. You know I love my Virginia team and Malik Cunningham is banged up. Buy to 3 if you can.

Penn State +1.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I had Penn State circled a few weeks ago when I was looking ahead in their schedules and think they have a much better eye test then Iowa as I watch these two BIG 10 teams a lot. I’m not impressed with Iowa’s strength of schedule to date as they beat up against teams that have been overvalued and struggling all season in Iowa State and Indiana and think Maryland’s 4-0 record will quickly drop as they faced all their easy opponents and are about to face the meat of the BIG 10. I’m not sold on Petras and Iowa’s offense has been unable to get anything going on the ground unlike years past they averaged only 3.4 yards per carry (ranking 100th) and their PFF rush grade ranks out to 122nd! Don’t expect them to start running the ball well now against the toughest defense they will have faced this season with Penn State who only allow opponents to rush for 3.4 yards per carry against them, ranking 30th. Petras is definitely due for some regression to last years stats as he has faced an easy schedule to date and currently ranks 24th in passing PFF, a huge improvement from last year's 124th passer ranking but will certainly drop after this week. Penn State’s defense has been phenomenal in the red zone ranking 2nd in the nation with a 46% red zone scoring percentage, a place where Iowa’s program has always struggled in years past and this year they rank 71st in red zone scoring % on offense so expect them to be held to some FGs. Penn State is well balanced on both sides of the ball and Franklin is 5-1 against Ferentz and lost for the first time last year against Iowa so it’s a revenge matchup in a huge BIG 10 matchup that I cant wait to watch. Good defense and hard hitting! Seems like the whole world is on Iowa too so that surprised me for sure and is always a good sign when you're on the opposite side of public perception.

Kentucky -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Back to Kentucky again and a lot of the same reasons as last week against UF, despite the great numbers on both sides of the ball for this Kentucky team they just don’t get much respect from the bookies (and the market) as they aren’t as frequently bet as the big name schools like LSU And UF. LSU has been unable to get anything going on the ground ranking #127th in the nation averaging 2.3 yards per rush. Kentucky’s defensive line is ranked 9th in the nation in yards per rush, and their secondary may be even better, ranking 12th in yards per pass allowed and 14th in PFF coverage. They tackle well, ranking 19th in the nation, and are in the Top 20 of almost all FEI defensive ranks. LSU’s defense has not been nearly as good by the numbers as they have allowed opponents to rush for 4.3 yards per carry (ranking 78th in the nation) and Kentucky loves to run and that's their strength ranking 17th in yards per rush, 25th in PFF rushing offense, and 15th in run blocking. A huge mismatch on paper as LSU rush defense ranks 85th in the nation this year and their biggest strength has been their pass rush but don’t expect them to get many sacks as not only have Kentucky’s offensive line been great at run blocking they also rank 12th in pass blocking. This LSU team is also very banged with 13 players on their injury report and 10 of them out for the game so they will be very thin. I think Kentucky follows up last week's big upset victory with a win this week against the struggling LSU team.

TCU/T.Tech Over 60.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units
Already touched on the significant drop off in performance of TCU’s defense from years past in previous write-ups. Their struggles continue as they are ranked at the bottom of the league in most categories. Both offenses outranks their defensive counterparts in every category in PFF and by an average of 30 ranks. The biggest mismatches being TCU’s secondary that ranks 105th going up against T. Techs 13th pass ranking (Shough is hurt now but Colombi has seen plenty of action and graded out well in his last two starts (3rd highest rated passer currently)) and Tech’s 29th receiver ranking. The Raiders prefer to pass and they should do it often but even on the ground TCU has been giving up almost 6 yards per carry ranking 120th in the league. Both defenses are in the bottom 10% of the league in 3rd down conversion percentages, almost giving up 50% of 3rd downs. The FEI numbers for both teams show huge advantages to the offenses as well with T. Tech’s offense out grading TCU’s defense by an average of 75 ranks across all categories! TCU’s offense outranks T. Tech by an average of 33 ranks but would be a lot more but the turnover rate ranking is tipping the scales as TCU’s offense has been bad at protecting the ball and T. Techs defense has had a great turnover FEI rate ranking 16th (more reason to like the over, let's get a short-field or two). Both defenses have forgotten how to tackle, with TCU ranking 124th and T. Tech ranking 121st. Both special teams struggle as well as T. Tech ranks 101st and TCU ranks 77th. Love this BIG 12 over and think it's a shootout, too bad it’s not a noon game. Also great to see one of the greatest offensive minds back in action over at TCU, Jerry Kill. Although he is only listed as “special assistant to the head coach” I’m sure he provides plenty of great input to Sonny Cumbie on the offense and last I looked at 2nd half ATS data, Jerry Kill’s name remains at the top of the list while he was a head coach he was the master of finding weaknesses and defenses and adjusting to them in 2nd halfs.

Notre Dame/Vtech Under 47 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
No write-up again sorry won’t have too much more of these but just hungover and can’t concentrate on the numbers lol, knew I shoulda got all the write-ups done before I started drinking last night but couldn’t fit it in. Just know both defenses outrank their offense in FEI across all categories by an average of 40 ranks. Great signs for an under!
 
Terrific stuff as always.

Was needing that extra push on the B12 over and just got it.

Good luck Dan!
 
Thanks Brass and Bar. Ya worst part was the backup Roberson had open receivers and still managed to go 7 for 21 with two picks, but you get some lucky ones as it looked like OU was going to be a push and quite the thrilling ending with the -3. :cheers3:
 
Woke up hungry AF! Lets eat this week!

Week 6 Results: 5-3 (+2.31 units)
Season YTD: 33-19 (+12.74 units) (63%)

Week 7:
Auburn +4.5 (-101) 1.5x
Mississippi ML (-130)
NC State/BC Under 52 (-108)
UCLA +1 (-101)
Kentucky +21.5 (-102)

Week 7:
Auburn +4.5 (-101) Risking 1.52 units to win 1.5 units
I know Arkansas is 5-1 ATS this season and have outperformed expectations but this line is a bit of an over-reaction. By the numbers, Auburn dominates in almost every stat category and should not be the underdog so we gladly take the 4.5 and may even sprinkle some on the ML for half unit come gameday. Arkansas’s defense started off strong against it’s weaker opponents but has struggled lately, including giving up 52 points to Ole Miss last week where blown coverages could be seen all over the field. Their secondary now ranks 93rd according to PFF and their run defense ranks 85th. Auburn should be able to put up points regardless if it’s Bo Nix or Finley but I prefer they finally make the swap to Finley and end the Bo Nix era (how many starts do you have to suck before getting benched when playing as a “legacy player”). Auburn’s defense, regardless of it’s offensive struggles, is a top 10 powerhouse by most stat categories. They rank 7th overall in PFF, 13th in the pass rush, 11th in coverage, and 14th against the run. They’ve only allowed 3.2 yards per rush (ranking 21st) and that is what drives this Arkansas offense as they only throw 35% of the time. Advanced line stats are finally out and show strong advantages to Auburn on both sides of the ball as across all categories they outrank Arkansas by an average of 25 ranks. Auburn’s defensive line is at the top of most categories ranking 5th in line yards, 13 in opportunity rate, 24th in power rank, and 23rd in stuff ranking. They should force Jefferson to throw the ball and I think we finally see some mistakes from the young starter as this will be a much tougher defense then he faced last week at Ole Miss. Auburn is also a much more disciplined team as they rank 23rd in penalties per play and Arkansas is one of the most penalized teams in the nation, ranking 127th in penalties per play. Love this play so we do 1.5x units and may add half unit on the ML tmrw.

Ole Miss ML (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
I just don’t see Hendon Hooker doing enough to keep pace with this Ole Miss offense. I’ve talked about the Rebels offense a lot and love watching them. Interestingly enough Jeff Lebby, the offensive coordinator for Ole Miss used to be Huepel’s offensive coordinator at UCF so these two offenses are very similar. Ole Miss just has much more talent and in the 2nd year of the program changes where Huepel is only in his first year at Tennessee with less experienced assistants. In receiving, Ole Miss ranks 18th best in the nation according to PFF where Tennessee ranks 116th. At the line of scrimmage, more of the same with Ole Miss pass blocking ranking 33rd and 39th in run blocking where Tennessee's offensive line ranks 106th in pass blocking and 75th in run blocking. Granted Tennessee’s defense outranks Ole Miss’s defense in most categories (I thought you were gonna be good this season!) but at the end of the day I'll put my money on Corral and the established crew who RARELY make mistakes this season with only 0.5 giveaways per game ranking 2nd in the nation. Ole Miss’s defense does out rank Tennessee's defense in two key defensive categories: 3rd down conv% and red zone conv % so that’s another huge plus. Tennessee has put up big numbers against the softer teams in the league in South Carolina, Missouri, and Bowling Green but they are about to be in a shootout with a more explosive team that they won’t be able to contain. Leddy never lets his foot off the gas against his old boss and comes out with the big W!

NC State/BC Under 52 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
This is a pretty little under that favors two strong defenses and two teams that both havent faced much competition as NC State Sagarin SOS ranks 84th and Boston College’s is an even worse 129th. Boston College’s offense hasn’t been the same since Jurkovec went down and Grosel took over the starting role. Grosel ranks 91st in the league in passing according to PFF and he's the biggest weakness of this team. According to PFF, NC State ranks 9th overall, 17th in coverage, and 4th against the run. Boston College ranks 16th overall, but 9th in coverage and 10th against the run as they don’t apply much pressure ranking 107th in the nation as their lack of a pass rush drops their overall defensive ranking but they are still one of the best. Both teams tackle soundly ranking 4th and 8th at tackling in the nation. NC State’s defense ranks 2nd in the nation in 3rd down conv% allowed at 25% and 18th in red zone scoring at only 72%. Boston College defense is almost as good ranking 26th in 3rd down conv% at 33% and 44th in red zone scoring allowed. Neither defense gives up big plays with NC State only allowing 3 rushes of over 20 yards on the entire season. Boston College defense ranks 9th nationally in scrimmage plays of 20+ yards allowed and NC State ranks 23rd. NC State’s defensive line ranks 11th in line yards, 22nd in opportunity rank, 12th in power ranking, and 3rd in stuff ranking and will be another tough test for this BC offense like Clemson last week that held Boston College to 46 rushing yards on 34 carries. Both teams like to play possession ball as they average over 50% in TOP% and Boston College really likes to milk it, ranking 104th in plays per game.

UCLA +1 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
The biggest factor in determining this play was the absolute DOMINATION of line of scrimmage stats on both sides of the ball for a “pick’em”. The first week advanced line stats are available and they are LIGHTING UP in favor of UCLA in this matchup on both sides of the ball. UCLA’s offensive line ranks 8th in line yards, 15th in opportunity rank, 75th in power ranking and 8th in stuff ranking. A huge mismatch on paper against the Washington defensive line that ranks 112th in line yards, 115th in opportunity rank, 96th in power ranking and 106th in stuff ranking. UCLA's defensive line ranks 19th in line yards and middle of the pack in most other categories where Washington’s offensive line is middle of the pack as well. The one huge hidden mismatch is situationally on the obvious passing down as UCLA’s defensive coordinator has been great in that scenario, ranking 4th in the nation on line yards allowed in passing downs and Washington has been ineffective at generating any yards in that situation on offense as they rank 121st on passing downs. UCLA’s biggest weakness on defense is their secondary that ranks 93rd but that's not an area where Washington can exploit as their QB ranks 94th in passing and their receivers rank 86th. UCLA’s biggest strength on offense is their run game as they rank 20th in rushing (CHARBONNET!) and 21st in run blocking, which is the biggest weakness of this Washington team as they rank 89th against the run. The FEI ranks have these two teams pretty evenly matched but tip to UCLA as they’ve had the stronger SOS at 44th where Washington ranks 62nd. UCLA pulls off the big road win this week in the PAC!

Kentucky +21.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Not a surprise pick for me if you’ve been following along this season. We've been riding Kentucky for a few weeks now and no reason to stop now as this defense is getting wayyy too many points once again. Georgia’s defensive FEI numbers are intimidating with straight #1 rankings across almost the entire board, Kentucky is top 20 in most categories. They actually have given up less plays of 20+ yards than Georgia, ranking #1 in the league only giving up more than 20 yards on 11 plays the entire season! Georgia’s defense has great numbers against the run but they haven't faced an offensive line like this to date. Kentucky’s offensive line ranks 2nd in line yards, 1st in opportunity rank, and 2nd in stuff ranking so I think they can get some push this year, especially since they have a passing threat unlike last season where they only put 3 points but held Georgia to only 14 points. This Georgia team is really banged up with 14 players recently listed on their injury report as questionable this month, including JT Daniels who has missed the last two weeks but may likely return this week. Either way Kentucky should cover and if we get late news that JT Daniels is out, it may be worth a sprinkle on the moneyline. (at least in a parlay, live a little)
 
Good luck all!

Week 7 Adding:
Florida -12.5 (-105)
Miami/UNC Over 63 (-105)
Wisconsin -14 (-106)
Duke/UVA Over 69.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh -6.5 (-105)

Week 7 Adding:
Florida -12.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Florida should win big here even in death valley judging from the numbers, but you never know in these SEC rivalry games. Florida’s offense is currently #1 at running the ball averaging 6.7 yards per carry and LSU has been getting GASHED on the ground allowing opponents to run for 5.1 yards per pass against them. LSU’s defense has also been terrible on 3rd down allowing opponents to convert 50% of the time, ranking #121st in the nation. LSU can’t run the ball and rarely do so that will give plenty of opportunities for this UF pass rush that ranks 18th in the nation in sack rate to get some pressure on Max Johnson who currently ranks 94th in passing according to PFF (Lower than EMORY!) and Max has some of the worst running and hands fumble grades I have seen in a QB dropping his overall PFF rank to #115th where although Emory isn’t the greatest passer, his running abilities make him rank #47th overall amongst QBs (with 20% min dropbacks I take all my numbers from PFF). Florida’s biggest struggle on defense has actually been tackling and although their coverage somehow ranks 109th in PFF, they have improved almost every week and have only given up 54% completion rate to their opponents (ranked 15th) and only allowed 6.5 yards per pass (ranking 32nd). And although the PFF numbers don’t mismatch well, the FEI efficiency numbers do A LOT. Florida’s offense outranks LSU’s defense by an average of 60 ranks as UF’s offense is Top 20 of most categories and LSU is in bottom 20% of the league in most defensive categories. Florida defensive FEI numbers are pretty surprising as they rank 7th in defense overall (had to double check spreadsheet wasn't a typo during data transfer) but somehow they are and they outrank LSU’s offense by an average of 25 ranks across the board too. The biggest concern for this game will be penalties as UF is one of the most penalized teams in the nation and LSU the least. I just think this line is too low based on the fact of the rivalry in death valley and last year's shootout where UF’s defense was an absolute joke - but lots of development has been made on that side of the ball if you look at the FEI and hats off to Mullen for quickly transitioning his offense to the strengths of his players going from a pass-first team last year to a run-first team this year.

Miami/UNC Over 63 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
No brainer ACC shootout here. UNC’s biggest weakness on offense is their offensive line but for the first time in the history of the Miami Hurricane football program - they do not have a respectable pass rush (I would know as a hurricane fan) as they rank 98th in sack %. On offense UNC has all kinds of weapons with 7 different receivers with double-digit yards per catch. They love to throw the deep ball and they have 17 passing plays of over 30+ yards ranking 6th in the nation in passing plays and 6th in the nation in scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Although Miami hasn’t been as explosive on offense this season (dealing with injuries), the UNC defense has been susceptible to the big play ranking 89th in long scrimmage plays allowed of over 30+ yards. Both teams run fast paced offenses and don’t possess the ball as Miami ranks 124th in TOP% and UNC ranks 81st. Yet both teams are in the upper half of total plays per game, with Miami ranking 26th in plays per game yet such an awful TOP%, they run one of the fastest offenses in America that prefers to throw 55% of the time. I like what I’ve seen from the new starter Tyler Van Dyke as he’s a great passer and should continue to perform well against this terrible UNC defense. UNC defense ranks 88th overall, 90th in coverage, 64th against the run, and 91st in tackling. Miami’s defense ranks out even worse in every category (but let’s not get into too much detail) and especially concerning is their tackling ranking 127th in the nation as UNC loves to throw little WR screens with blockers where one or two missed tackles could easily wind up going for long TD’s. If Howell has time for the long wheel routes and double moves to develop, forget about it they should get close to 62 like they put up on Miami last year. Miami has had a much harder schedule but their secondary has shown incapable of stopping these high-powered offenses. The last 3 times these two teams have faced off, it was a shoot-out and I expect the same as both offenses know each other well, and both defenses are in shambles. Take the over and give it time, points will be scored, we will surely break 50 and this is one of these games where things can change in an instant.

Duke/UVA Over 69.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Another ACC shootout in my opinion that points to at least 80 points being scored by every measurable stat categories. Where should we start? PFF - Duke’s offense outranks UVA’s horrible defense in every matchup by 81 ranks. Virginia outranks Duke’s defense by 53 ranks in every category with the lowest mismatch coming in the pass rush but still outranked by 40. UVA loves to throw the ball and they should pass all day against this Duke secondary that ranks 85th in PFF (with a BAD SOS) and have allowed 9.7 yards per pass on the season (ranking 122nd). Duke prefers to run the ball and UVA has been getting destroyed on the ground allowing opponents to rush for 5.8 yards per rush (ranking 119th). In long scrimmage plays, both offenses are one of the best at explosive plays as UVA ranks 1st in plays of 20+ yards and 30+ yards. Duke ranks 24th in 20+ yards and 26th in 30+ yards. Both defenses give up A TON of big plays, with both defenses ranking in the bottom 10% of the league of long scrimmage plays allowed in 20+ yards, 30+ yards, 40+ yards, and even 50+ yards as both defenses have given up more than 6 of those on the season (so we guaranteed at least two) FEI shows more of the same mismatches with Duke outranking UVA’s defense by 45 ranks on average across all categories and Dukes defense by an average of 26 ranks across all FEI categories. Like I said, no way the bookies can put a high enough number in this matchup where two teams defenses have been almost non-existent and the strengths of each offense heavily playing into their favors against the D’s. Another over and I’ve been red hot in totals this year.

Wisconsin -14 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This should be an old-fashioned curb stomping beat down at the line of scrimmage. These option teams never fare well if they don’t establish the line of scrimmage and I see no way they do that against arguably the best defensive line in the nation. Wisconsin ranks 1st in line yards, 1st on standard downs, and 1st on passing downs, 2nd in opportunity rank, and 2nd in stuff ranking - all the while only allowing opponents to rush for only 1.7 yards per rush against them (ranked 1st too duh). If you consider their opponents and the sagarin strength of schedule ranking of #2, they are the best d-line and Army should get NO movement up front - if you don’t count sack rate (who cares how often Army gets sacked when they have made only 33 passes all season) Wisconsin outranks the Army offensive line by an average of 46 ranks across all line line categories. Did I mention the Army's Strength of schedule? #109th and an absolute joke compared to Wisconsin. Last week, Wisconsin got back to running the ball on offense rushing for 391 yards last week averaging 6.41 yards per carry. Mertz is obviously a big problem but against this much smaller Army team I expect them to run all day and open up some passes as Wisconsin trys to get back on track after facing a few tough teams and losses. Even with it’s near impossibly difficult schedule (Penn State, ND and Michigan!) and horrible offense , Wisconsin’s defense still ranks #2 in 3rd down conversion % allowed, #15 in red zone scoring allowed, 5th in completion % allowed. Army will go down hard as Wisconsin should run for 300+ and hold Army to less than 100 yards rushing. I bought 13.5 at my book.

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Sorry fella’s this was the last one I looked into and locked in on the week and don’t have much time for writeup. Just know we have big mismatches on FEI and offensive/defensive lines on both sides of the ball.
 
FWIW Dan I think you have a lot of smart plays here. Great job this year and thanks for the time you take to write them up. Taking Ole Miss on the ML is a really smart way to approach that game IMO. You can make a case strictly on paper for Tennessee, enough to where you'd be a little nervous covering a line, but Tennessee is one of those teams who at this juncture just doesn't seem capable of actually pulling out a win in this spot.

Pitt is so good on the road that they are extremely attractive to me, but that's one of those sides that I can't in good conscience play it at 6.5 when I could have had it almost 3 points lower earlier in the week. Having said that, they'll probably cover even the 6.5.
 
Thanks Brass! You've been one of the few ppl too with great write-ups over the years and I remember reading them since way back in the day. Hard to find write-ups now a days - amazing how many handicappers try to exist on picks alone. GIVE ME A REASON! ha

Best of luck to you Brass. I like a lot of your plays too especially Air Force really stood out from the numbers but I laid off for now.
 
Really appreciate that write-up on Wisky as I started getting that bad feeling in pit of my stomach of likely making a wager on them...

Might just have to do it...
 
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