Dapper Dan Picks - 2021 Season Long Thread

Love the Pitt play, i got -5 the other day. Last week I loved gtech-2.5 but waited and ended up having to play -4.5 and got burnt by the fucking hook! Pretty much summed up my week, got really lucky to cash Ou then paid for 1 good break rest of damn day!! Lol. Anyways, onward and upward. Good luck buddy, wish I had seen your plays sooner.
 
Ya bar I had whisky circled last week and laid offf so hopefully this isn’t leftover fomo from that.

Sorry fellas in duke/Virginia I get so caught up in the numbers some times I forget about the damn weather! Pouring all game
 
NO need to apologize, All you needed was Duke to show up on offense and you would have had that one too, even with the weather. Another great week!
 

DAPPER DAN PICKS:​

WEEK 7 RESULTS: 7-3 (+4.34 UNITS)​

SEASON YTD: 40-22 (+17.08 UNITS) (65%)​


Week 8: (more to come tmrw morning)
Colorado State -3 (-115)
Kansas St/T. Tech Over 60.5 (-105)
NC State -3 (-105)
Boston College +6.5 (-107)
Pittsburgh -3 (-115)

Week 8:
Colorado State -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 to win 1 units
Head Coach Steve Addazio knows how to coach defense and it’s showing in his second year after moving to Colorado State. He is paired up with Chuck Heater again who is a very experienced defensive coordinator who has a long history with Steve including stints at UF from 09-10 where they were ranked 5th in ‘09 in ypp allowed and 13th in ‘10. Then they moved on together to Temple in ‘11-12 where they had a good defense but then they parted ways in 2013 when Steve went to Boston College, where defense was the strength of the program for many years. It all starts in the trenches, at the defensive line where they are one of the highest ranked d-line’s in most categories ranking 10th in line yards, 20th in opportunity rate, 4th in stuff ranking, and 16th in sack rate and only allowing 2.2 yards per rush(ranked #1 and held Iowa to 54 rushing yards!) . A huge mismatch on paper for this Utah State offensive line that has been struggling, ranking 126th in line yards, 120th in opportunity rate, 49th in power ranking, 126th in stuff ranking, and averaging 3.9 yards per rush (ranked 80th). They will have to get all their yardage through the air but Colorado State’s secondary has been no slouch either ranking #14th in yards per pass, #13 in completion % allowed, and ranked 31st according to PFF. They are also 4th in 3rd down conv % and 22nd in red zone scoring % allowed so their defense has been solid no matter where you look. Although their offense hasn’t been as lively, they should get going against a Utah State defense that has been horrible by the numbers this season allowing 5.9 yards per rush, ranking 122nd!. And Colorado State loves to run the ball 60% of the time so they should rack up the yards on the ground in this matchup. Utah State’s defense is ranked poorly in every area, ranking 121st overal, 113th in the pass rush, 109th in the secondary, and 113th against the run. I usually don’t take Friday Night sh*t conferences games, but I like this one as CSU struggled early (even I called them out against Stanford) but have bounced back nicely - especially on defense.

Kansas St./T. Tech Over 60.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Beautiful little BIG 12 Noon Shootout! All the numbers agree and weather looks clear except for some winds but I think both teams will move the balls regardless. Both defenses are struggling, especially Texas Tech’s who ranks in the bottom of most FEI ranks. Kansas State’s offense is much better with Skylar Thompson back from injury although they ran into a tough Iowa State defense last week and only put up 20 points, I expect both teams to easily get 30 this week. By PFF standards, Kansas State’s defense has definitely taken a step back this year as they rank 91st overall, 93rd in coverage, and 93rd in run defense. Texas Tech’s 29th overall ranking offense should have a big day against them. Texas Tech defense gives up a ton of big plays, ranking #115th in long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. Although Kansas State’s defense has been good at stopping the big play (ranking 10th in the nation in allowed) - Texas Tech offense has tons of explosive plays ranking 13th in scrimmage plays over 30 yards. Both defenses rank in the bottom 5% of the league in 3rd down conversion % allowed, and red zone scoring % allowed. Kansas State’s offense is middle of the pack in 3rd downs and RZ scoring (but played two games with Skylar) and Texas Tech;s offense is excellent on 3rd down ranking 10th and 19th in red zone scoring. Neither defensive line has been effective at applying pressure and we have great kickers on both sides as Kansas State’s kicker has hit 83% and Texas Techs has hit every kick. Oh Did I mention these two teams can’t tackle? Kansas State ranks 93rd in tackling and Texas Tech ranks 109th in tackling. So many reasons to love this play. Enjoy this shootout.

NC State -3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This write-up pains me to write as I sip from my Miami Hurricanes coffee mug. But the numbers are too far tipped in NC State's favor for me to pass up on this one. NC States’ offense, across all categories in PFF, ouranks Miami’s in EVERY category, SIGNIFICANTLY, and by an average of 63 ranks (WHAT!). Miami’s defense is in the bottom 15% of every category with their highest ranking of 89th in the pass rush. NC State’s defense is in the top 10% of almost every category (except Pass rush) but they rank 8th overall, 10th in coverage, and 5th in run defense. In tackling - another huge advantage as Miami has forgotten how to tackle ranking 128th in the nation and NC State ranks 6th. FEI rankings show more of the same as NC State’s offense outranks Miami’s defense by an average of 30 ranks across all categories. As Miami’s offense has struggled at times, the FEI mismatch on defense is even bigger as NC State’s defense outranks Miami’s by an average of 57 ranks across all categories. NC State also has a top 10 defensive line, ranking 2d in line yards, 7th in opportunity rate, 6th in power ranking, and 1st in stuff ranking. Miami will struggle in short yardage situations. I only bet against Miami once in the last few years, and that was last year's bowl game against Okie State. Okie State came out with a huge lead but then the gambling gods made it a close game in an attempt to smite me for betting against my own team - but Okie State prevailed.. Hopefully the gambling gods let the game play out like the numbers say they should and no weird juju happens. (I will spend the winnings on only good things I promise) This line is definitely fishy by the way but I'm going to chalk it up as all the Miami money that comes in every week regardless if they’re good or not, they say we got lotta drug money down here it's probably that being spent on the evil gambling.

Boston College +6.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Bought this to 7 with my bookie but use PickMonitor to track all my lines and they don't have that ability yet. Love getting this many points with MUCH superior defense. I talked about this BC defense a lot last week as they cashed that nice little under for us last week - although their offense struggled against a tough NC state defense and they abandoned the run game only running 6 times in the 2nd half. They should NOT have the same issues against a Louisville defense that has been awful all year long. Louisville defense ranks 100th overall in PFF, 118th in the pass rush, 59th in coverage, 110th in run defense, and 70th in tackling. Boston College prefers to run since Jurkovec went down and they should run all over this Louisville defensive line, who doesn't have one player over 300 lbs. Louisville’s defensive line ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and they have given up 4.5 yards per rush (ranking 88th) BC’s defense also matches up well as they don’t blitz much and get after the passer which is a recipe for disaster against Malik Cunningham. I'm not too worried that Malik torched them last season as they only won by 7 in that one and Jeff Hafley is a great coach and will make adjustments and their defense is much better than it was last year. Louisville hasn’t beat any of their FBS opponents by more than 7 points this season as their defense can’t stop anyone and there is no reason why they should beat BC by more than 7.

Pittsburgh -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
We are going back to our boys at Pitt. Clemson just not the same, sorry limited time for write-ups this week and don’t wanna spend too much time on this one as I’ve talked a lot about Pitt and Clemson is clearly being overvalued this season and no-where near the effectiveness of the last few years - and it’s all in the numbers.
 
So glad to see you on Pitt again! I love them here. Was tad nervous one the other guys I have most respect for here is on clemson. Happy to see you still on that Pitt train with me. Best team in the acc!
 
I couldn’t believe when I saw k-st was allowing teams to compete 75% their passes! That is crazy! I was leaning k-st but don’t like the fact it looks like that line gonna flip. I had a tough time with the total, all the things you brought up def point to points in bunches. From a tempo perspective it seems high. Guess the thing is both offenses should be very efficient and hit some explosive plays.
 
I hate Grosel for bc, so sick of saying every week what a bummer it was they lost jurkovec! At times he looks ok but others he is ass! I do think this is too many points as I suspect it another nail biter for ville. I do think ville defensive numbers compared to BC are somewhat skewed cause ville has played much tougher offenses imo. Mizzou or ncst the best offenses BC faced and they got kinda roasted by both of them, ville offense is every bit as capable as those 2. On the other hand BC is prob the worst power 5 offense ville has faced! They really have faced a crazy tough schedule for any defense. End of day I do think it be a close game but I think ville wins so not a super easy play to make.
 
with you on ncst, as long as they get those 2 stud rbs the 15-20 touches they should both get every week i think ncst will go for 250+ on the ground! my only issue with ncst is sometimes they inexplicably get away from giving those 2 the rock! drives me crazy when that happens, the mississippi st game i dont think either got dd touches, no surprise they lost badly on a night the offense could do nothing.. someone should get slapped anytime they see a box score where pearson and knight not getting 20+ touches!!
 
sneaky over i like in the morning is wake/army over 52.5.. if oddsmakers and pickers on army right and this a close game i dont see how it doesnt fly over? i know army will limit possessions but i think both will be efficient with their chances.. when army faced a scary good wku offense they ended up combining for over 70 points!
 
2daBank said:
sneaky over i like in the morning is wake/army over 52.5.. if oddsmakers and pickers on army right and this a close game i dont see how it doesnt fly over? i know army will limit possessions but i think both will be efficient with their chances.. when army faced a scary good wku offense they ended up combining for over 70 points!
Click to expand...
By all the numbers I look at this did look like a nice over but think Im going to lay off.....Neither team has faced much compeition, BOTH team have strong advantages at line of scrimmage with decent o-line's and facing bottom 10% d-lines.....Wake should get run all over and Army's secondary should get torched....think Im going to lay off though not sure.........
Just woke up after a night of drinking....smdh.....friends bday.....I got 4 other plays already locked in....let me finish those writeups and see if I can find any more but always hard to dig morning with a hangover.....lol.....I needa stop going out friday nights as COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON IS MORE IMPORTANT
 
Week 8 Adds:
Syracuse +3.5 (-105) 1.5x
Syracuse ML (+150) .5x
Oklahoma St./ Iowa State Under 47 (-104)
South Carolina/Texas AM Under 45 (-105)
Utah -3 (-105)

Week 8 adds:
Syracuse +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units
Syracuse ML (+150) Risking .5 units to win .75 units
Favorite play of the week. Decided to do 1.5x and then extra .5 on the ML. If you look at V. Tech’s game log and PFF ranks you will see a downward trend over the season, culminating in last week's 28-7 blowout against Pitt. Pitt’s not even a good running team and they ran for 208 yards on Vtech and held V.Tech to under 100 rushing yards and 3.21 yards per rush, an ongoing trend this season as the Hokies are averaging only 3.51 yards per carry. This Syracuse team can run damn well, ranking 9th in the nation according to PFF (and ran for 165 yards on 30 carries last week against CLEMSON!) and the same mismatch in the trenches can be seen on both sides of the ball. Syracuse's offensive line outranks Vtechs defensive line by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. Syracuse's defensive line outranks Vtechs offensive line by an average of 47 ranks across all categories. The biggest mismatch is in the pass rush as Vtech’s offensive line ranks 100th in sack % - and Syracuse ranks 17th in sack %. Syracuse is ranked 8th in TFLs this season and they should get a handful against Vtech who ranks 60th in TFL allowed. Burmeister should be getting all types of pressure and he doesn't have much of an arm and currently ranks 168th in passing according to PFF. His receivers don’t help him out either as they rank 85th in the league, according to PFFl. They really don’t have any sort of identity on offense and rank 92nd overall. WE also have a strong mismatch in special teams as Syracuse ranks 14th in the nation and V.Tech ranks 61st. Their SOS is pretty evenly matched yet according to line stats and PFF we have huge advantages so we take the dog as the public perception of a big name school Vtech but since Fuente took over and had a great first year, they have been on a downward trend the last 5 years and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish this season worse than they did last season at 5-6. (SHOULDA STAYED OUT THE POWER 5) LETS GO CUSE!

Oklahoma St./ Iowa State Under 47 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
As I match-up each team's offenses to their opponents defenses to their corresponding stat categories - I have my spreadsheet numbers light up RED for defensive advantages and GREEN for offensive advantages and this matchup lights up RED in every spreadsheet and stat I compare. At the line of scrimmage - Oklahoma State’s offense is out-ranked by Iowa State's strong defensive line across all categories by an average of 47 ranks. Iowa State’s offensive line as well by an average of 43 ranks across all categories. According to PFF both defensives have strong advantages as Iowa State is ranked 17th and Okie State ranked 12th in overall defense. Both have been great at applying pressure as Iowa State ranks #7th in sack% and Okie State ranks 16th in sack %. Both defenses are Top 15 defenses in most FEI categories where the offenses are just middle of the pack. Both defenses are great on 3rd down and in the red zone with Okie State ranking 6th in 3rd down conv % and 44th in the red zone. Iowa State is ranked 23rd on 3rd down and 20th in the red zone. Okie State prefers to run 65% of the time but Iowa State’s front is one of the best in the nation with only allowing 3 yards per carry to its opponents. They rank 21st in run defense and 13th in tackling and is the strength of this defense. Okie State’s defense has only allowed 3 yards per carry too. Iowa State doesn’t give up any big plays as they rank #1st in opponents 30+ yard plays allowed, and surprisingly, Okie State ranks 41st on defense in LSP (long scrimmage plays) allowed. Neither offense is explosive, with Okie State ranking 119th in long scrimmage plays over 30 yards, and Iowa State ranks 51st. Iowa State should rack up some TFL’s as both defenses are in the upper half of the league in TFLs and Okie State’s offense has given up a lot of TFLs ranking 103rd in TFL’s allowed. Iowa State loves long slow methodical drives as they rank 33rd in TOP % at 52% but rank 100th in plays per game. Purdy, although a seasoned veteran, has definitely struggled over the years against his tougher competition and this year especially. Oklahoma State also has 12 guys recently listed on their injury report - all on the offensive side of the ball - so they will be thin. Originally I had Iowa State circled for this game but was shocked by the -7 number. How many times do you see a Top 10 ranked team an underdog by that many points? Think it will be very low scoring and the bookies think so too as the number is set pretty damn low but I still like it.

South Carolina/Texas AM Under 45 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Will South Carolina get any points in this matchup? Before their entire offensive backfield got injured they had horrible numbers. How good can all of their backups be? Starting QB Doty got hurt last game so in comes career backup senior Zeb Noland who has only seen a few starts from injuries and was benched back at Iowa State in 2018 when Brock Purdy took over and hasn’t seen any action since then (3 years!) . Not only that but 4 of their top 5 leading rushers on the season are out or listed as questionable (WILD!). Their offensive line is in the bottom 10% of almost all categories so they won’t get any help there and rank 105th in sack% allowed. They rank 104th in pass blocking and 67 in run blocking. They will have lots of trouble blocking this Texas AM pass rush that ranks 36th in sack%. South Carolina’s offense ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and are facing a defensive line that is ranked in the top 15% of almost all categories. Texas AMs offense does struggle in pass protection as was evident in the Arkansas game and they rank 75th in pass blocking. That is the biggest strength of this South Carolina team as they rank 2nd in the pass rush (According to PFF)! Both teams have been under teams on the season going 2-5 situationally so the number is low. As long as Texas AM doesn’t up over 35 points themselves I think we’re in good shape and I’m sure Texas AM will want to rest up as they have 10 players of their own listed on the injury report and have Auburn and Ole Miss on deck so they will keep it bland and milk the clock in a game where they are favored by 20.

Utah -3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Wow, quite the surprise for this program as we all expected Charlie Brewer to raise the stakes to the next level but he turned out to be a total bust and left the program after being benched in the 3rd game and Cameron Rising rose from the ashes and led the team to 3 huge wins beating Washington State, USC, and Arizona State. Cameron Rising has been superb, completing 65% of his paases for 7.4 yards per pass, 9 TDs, 2 INTS. He is ranked 39th in passing according to PFF, and can also do damage with his legs. He has a run game to support him averaging 5.5 yards per carry ranking 12th in the nation. Although Oregon State has only allowed opponents to run for 3.6 yards against them (ranked 38th) It hasn’t been against good running teams and are actually ranked 98th in run defense according to PFF. Oregon States 3rd down defense is a joke - allowing opponents to convert 52% of the time, ranking 126th. Utah’s offensive line struggled early in pass blocking but that is not a strength of this Oregon State team as their pass rush ranks 102nd in PFF. We also have a strong advantage in tackling as Oregon State ranks 119th in the league and Utah is just middle of the pack. In FEI Utah’s offense outranks Oregon State's defense by 41 ranks and that includes Brewer’s shitty games so if you look at the FEI with just Rising starting its probably a much bigger mismatch. All these numbers where Utah has the advantage as well as the stronger SOS as they rank 15th in Sagarin’s and Oregon State ranks 54th. Utah is also one of the least penalized teams, ranking 12th in penalties per play and Oregon State one of the most - ranking 89th in penalties per play. I also like how Utah is 2-4 ATS to date and Oregon State is 4-2 ATS. Another -3 fav and always buy down to -2.5 if you can for under -125 I think its worth it in most cases and since I’m not buying on pickmonitor I’m sure one or two of these 3 point favorites will push, ha.
 
Cuse hit nicely but first losing week of the year last week :-(. Took an extra hard look at these and already have a few more ready for tmrw just finishing writeups and waiting on numbers but will release 2nd batch in the morning per usual. Good luck all. Bank I see you eyeing Lousiville too this week, haha - at first I was leaning NC State based off surface, initial line but more I looked into the game the more I'm leaning cardinals now with all of NC state injuries piling up - not sure if I'm going to lock in either yet - seems like all the good games are at noon and or a night with not much good day action.

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 8 Results: 4-6 (-2.17 units)
Season YTD: 44-28 (+14.91 units)

Week 9:
Wisconsin/Iowa under 37 (-105)
Auburn ML (-135)
UCF -11 (-105)
Texas Tech +19.5 (-105)
Penn State +18.5 (-105)
North Carolina +3.5 (-107)
UVA/BYU Over 64.5 (-105)

Week 9:
Wisconsin/Iowa under 37 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Show me down to Squaresville where all the squares live because I’m making this square play, ALL DAY!. Oddly enough this matchup has gone OVER in 3 of the last 4 seasons with very low totals set but there’s a CLEAR CUT advantage to both defenses in this matchup that makes a write-up a piece of cake for this play. First - at the line of scrimmage, where Wiscy still reigns #1 in line yards, #1 in standard downs, #2 in passing down, #1 in opportunity rate, #2 in stuff ranking and #17 in sack rate. Unlike years past - Iowa has no run game this season, ranking #110th in yards per rush at 3.1 with line yard ranks even worse at #121, #128th in stuff ranking, and 100th in sack ranking. Whisky has no QB and they are well aware of that fact so they run the ball 65% of the time, but they will be running into the teeth of this defense as they rank #8th in yards per rush allowed, and 13th in PFF run defense. Iowa’s defensive secondary is ranked #2 in PFF and are ranked #2 in passes defended per game and they’re not about to give a bunch of yards in the air against a Wiscy offense who has struggled to protect their QB (Ranking 108th in PFF) and led by Graham Mertz who is ranked #133rd in QBs PFF passer and overall rating. Both teams tackle very well and rank in the top 5 of long scrimmage plays over 20+ yards allowed. Both offenses have been terrible at producing long scrimmage plays with Iowa ranking #110 in over 20+ yards and Wisconsin ranking #127th. Both teams will chew clock and be very conservative as both coaches know each other’s weaknesses well and both will look to not be the team that makes the mistake that makes the difference in what should be a close game. Stick with under and watch defenses reign.

Auburn ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
As much as I love Ole Miss, I think this is a great spot for Auburn to win at home. Ole Miss's biggest defensive weakness has been stopping the run - especially on 1st downs (allowing opponents to average 4.91 yards per carry on 1st downs alone!) - ranking 115th in line yards allowed on standard downs. This is where Auburn excels, averaging 6.48 yards per carry on first downs! Tank Bigsby should have a huge day on the ground as their entire offensive line outranks Ole Miss’s defensive line by an average of 41 ranks across all categories. Auburn also has an advantage on the defensive line as they are one of the best in the league and outranking Ole Miss’s offensive line by an average of 25 ranks across all categories. PFF shows advantages on both sides of the ball as well and Auburn with the much stronger defense - ranking 14th overall. Ole Miss’s defense played well last week, but they struggle against up-tempo offenses with coverage and packages and Auburn is very capable of running a fast up-tempo speed and will most likely be doing the same, knowing that’s how Arkansas put up 51 against them a few weeks ago with a fast pace. Auburn is the much more disciplined team as Ole Miss ranks #126th in penalties per play, and Auburn is 23rd. Auburn has an edge in special teams as they’ve been solid ranking 5th overall in PFF and Ole Miss ranking 43rd. In tackling, and every defensive category Auburn has the advantage and you know I always prefer to bet the better defense so let’s go Tigers……!!!!

UCF -11 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
It’s been 6 weeks since starting Knight QB Gabriel got injured, fracturing his collarbone. Malzahn has hinted at his return and most collarbone fractures take 6-8 weeks, but I don’t think UCF will risk it, or will need to in this matchup as they should dominate this game regardless. Leading rusher BOWSER has been battling injury and returned two weeks ago but hasn’t produced huge numbers yet - expect him to feast on this Temple run defense that has given up 5.2 yards per carry (ranked 114th) and is outranked by 60 ranks across all line categories vs the UCF offensive line. Despite losing their starting QB, Gus’s run first offense has been explosive, ranking 19th in yards per carry averaging 5.3. According to PFF, Temple’s secondary is even worse and is ranked 100th in coverage, and 96th in tackling. All this with a much weaker SOS rank as Temple ranks 102nd and UCF 72nd. Sagarin Ranks show a huge ranking mismatch too as UCF ranks 59th and Temple ranks 139th rightfully so when you consider their offensive production - which Temple ranks 111th overall according to PFF. A few weeks back freshman D’wan Mathis took over the starting QB role which provided a little spark to the Temple offense, but don’t think it will make much of a difference when you factor in their other positional struggles as Temples receiving ranks 104th and run game ranks 114th - only averaging 3.7 yards per carry (ranking 90th) . Temple also recently lost it’s two top leading tacklers (both safeties - and good indicator of a shit defense as safeties are making all your tackles). Tyler is definitely out and Griffin is questionable. Last year Temple covered the big 28 point spread on the road and I think oddsmakers over-adjusted this line this year as UCF should cover easily despite their 2-5 ATS record this season.

Texas Tech +19.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Against FBS opponents this season, Oklahoma’s average margin of victory is 8.7 points (remove a 21 points win against TCU and the number drops to 6.6). This is simply not a defense that can win by more than 3 possessions, and the numbers show that would be very unlikely in this game. Despite Texas Tech firing head coach Matt Wells, Sonny Cumbie remains the offensive coordinator and play caller (and promoted to interim head coach) and this offense has been very productive against it’s weak BIG 12 opponents (like Oklahoma!) FEI Shows this offense is in Top 15 in almost all categories - which outranks Oklahoma's weak defense by an average of 57 ranks across all FEI categories. Surprisingly - this is more-so than Oklahoma FEI outranks Texas Tech’s defense (by 1 rank - ha!) Oklahoma’s biggest weakness on defense is their secondary that ranks 94th according to PFF and 82nd in tackling. Texas Tech’s offense can be explosive and have averaged 4.8 yards per rush. They’ve had more explosive plays of 40+ yards than anyone in the league with 20 on the season and 3 of more than 70 yards. Their receivers have plenty of speed, rank out to 30th in PFF, and have averaged 9.2 yards per pass (ranking 11th in the nation). Texas Tech’s defense was gouged on the ground by Texas and TCU heavily skewing the numbers - but aside from those games they played very well against their inferior running opponents holding 5 of their 8 opponents to under 100 yards - including last week’s game against Kansas State. Texas Tech’s defense is more disciplined and their kicker has yet to miss a FG This season so let's take the points with the big road dog who’s been beat badly the last two seasons by the same team - so they may be a bit underestimated from their undefeated opponent.

Penn State +18.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Who in the hell has this Ohio State team played to warrant this absurdly high line? Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Akron, Tulsa, Minnesota, Oregon? Oregon beat them and smashed them at the line of scrimmage averaging 7.1 yards per carry and only allowing Ohio State to run for 4.1 yards per carry. Penn State has beaten Auburn, Wisconsin, and only lost to Iowa because Clifford got hurt but since they lost two straight we’re going to make them 3 possession dogs? Even with their losses their defense remains one of the best, especially in the secondary where they rank 5th in PFF, 9th in total passes broken up and 9th in passes defended, 1st in yards per pass allowed - at 4.9, #15th in completion % allowed. Although their run defense struggles according to PFF, they have only given up 3.7 yards per carry on the season (ranking 37th). FEI has their defense in top 10 of almost all categories, and average ranking of 15th across all categories. I think this will be much closer than a 3 possession game by the numbers, especially if you consider the SOS mismatch. Ohio State has also been hit by the injury bug with 11 players recently listed as Questionable on their injury report. Most teams are susceptible to let-down spots and poor performances on any week, Penn State was due for one last week after a heartbreaking loss to Iowa, a bye week, and Ohio State on deck against a struggling Illinois team but they still should keep this one close and I love this pick, but will hold back to just 1 unit.

North Carolina +3.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Last year, UNC lost big to Notre Dame and were dominated at the line of scrimmage only averaging 2.9 yards per carry, and Notre Dame averaging 5.53 yards per carry in their matchup - they also gave up 6 sacks. But this year it’s revenge time and the offensive/defensive line numbers show a mismatch in favor of UNC on both sides of the ball - by an average of 20 ranks across all categories. Notre Dame has only mustered up 3 yards per carry on the season! (ranking #119th). Both offensive lines have struggled in pass protection but UNC’s has shown improvement from the start of the season. I was surprised to see the FEI numbers show an edge to UNC’s defense (as they've been horrible) over Notre Dame’s and they were heavily skewed due to the fact that Notre Dame has really struggled in first down drive rate, and busted drive rate, ranking #103rd and 124th and that's where UNC’s defense is at it’s best, ranking 39th in first down drive rate and 19th in busted drive rate. Notre Dame also lost starting Safety and 2nd leading tackler on the team this year, Kyle Hamilton, so expect the big play UNC offense to test them early and often and look for the big plays they’ve been hitting all season, ranking 2nd in 30+ yard plays. This is a revenge game for Mack Brown and this Notre Dame team is not the same with their offense losing 4 year starter Ian Book nor is their defense since losing their defensive coordinator guru - Clark Lea. I bought this to 4 at my bookie and you should too but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tar Heels pull off the upset on the road against the 6-1 team who has had a pretty soft schedule to date. Tar Heels are also coming off a bye week and Notre Dame is coming off a double digit win against USC but a game where they were outgained in yards per play and had quite a few red zone stops to make the win appear larger than it really did - much like what happened against Wisconsin too.

BYU/UVA over 64.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read the situational total trends for BOTH of these teams have gone under in 6 of 8 games they’ve played. My spreadsheet lights up GREEN in every category for both teams - indicating STRONG advantages for the offenses for both teams. Across all FEI stats, Virginia’s offense outranks BYU’s defense by 61 ranks. BYU’s offense outranks UVA’s (HORRIBLE) defense by 70 ranks. At the line of scrimmage same thing, with Virginia's offensive line outranking by 31 ranks on average across all categories and BYU’s offensive line by 40 ranks. PFF, equally mismatched, with positional offensive matchups outranking their defensive counterparts by an average of 40 ranks for UVA and an average of 85 ranks for BYU (85 ranks!). I’ve talked a lot about Brennan Armstrong and his receiving corps as I back UVA a lot, and there isn't a defense they can’t put up big numbers against if they are in sync. BYU’s Jaren Hall has shown improvement every week in PFF scales and currently ranks 16th overall - he has more weapons than Brennan as his receivers are ranked 6th overall according to PFF. Both defenses suck on 3rd downs and both offenses are great on 3rd down. Both team defenses give up a ton of big plays, and both offenses account for big plays. Yada yada yada. Easy game to fire away on the over especially with the nice situational trend in favor of the under for both teams forcing oddsmakers to put a lower number then expectations to balance the market.
 
love ville.. their defense is better than the numbers suggest imo., they have had to play a lot of really good offenses that would ruin any defenses surface stats. on the other hand ncst has played a bunch of crappy offenses.. think ville actually the best offense offense ncst will have faced. i dunno why perception of ville is so low? seems like everyone decided they sucked after getting whipped by ole miss to start the year. felt like the hold world laid 7 with freaking ucf at ville (when the qb was still healthy) ville wins outright. they covered vs wake in a game they could have easily won, they beat uva down for 3.5 qrtrs before melting down.. if ncst played that schedule they would have plenty of losses imo.. i think ville might be the better team, they at least very close they have the better qb, ill take a td all day..
 
i think i will end up on auburn as well..

i cant fuck with pen st, dunno if clifford really healthy or not and while i agree osu defense is still a huge question mark i dont think we gonna get any answers with a psu team who sucks at running the ball. psu defense might be able to keep them in it, they def gonna show stroud some blitzes he never seen before but end of day you cant keep this offense down for long and without a run game i cant see a one dimensional offense causing them too much grief, i think we find out a lot more bout osu next week when they go to nebraska and martinez hits them with a bunch the same stuff they struggled with against gophers and ducks early on.. im certainly not laying the points either so hope you cash,
 
when i looked at that uva/byu game over was really only thing that made sense to me also,, i havnt played it yet but might end up on it with you..

sneaky over for the week: i know you capped vtech/gtech, what you come up with? i think this could be a under the radar shootout. gtech is awful getting off the field on 3rd downs and while i dont like Burmiester he does have a knack of running around and making plays to keep drives going. the way Shrader tore apart hokies d with his scrambling to run and to throw down field i gotta think simms licking his chops who i think a little more talented. i just dont see a lot of punting in this game with a couple teams that gonna lay it out all there to try and get a win, acc been great for some these unexpected shootouts and think this could be another one (while canes/pitt surprises everyone and stays under! lol).
 
Week 9 Adds:
MSU TT Under 23 (-110) .5x
Michigan -4 (-109) .5x
Arizona State -16 (-105)
Minnesota -7.5 (-105)
California ML (+108)
Washington +2.5 (+100)

Michigan -4 (-109) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
MSU TT Under 23 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
I think Michigan wins this one easily to be honest but taking the TT under and the points for half a unit to be safe as that many points is concerning in these big rivalry matchups. Last year Michigan State was a 21 point underdog and came out with the upset - so it’s time for revenge. The numbers show much stronger advantages to Michigan - with a harder SOS. I think Sagarin was a bit generous SOS ranking of 56th for Michigan State as not one of their opponents has a winning record. The two halfway decent defenses Michigan State has faced gave up only 20 points against Indiana and 23 points against Nebraska - but this Michigan defense is definitely a tier up from those two teams by the numbers. Michigan’s is a slightly better SOS with more impressive wins and stats through-out and leads in many more categories. The key stats on offense AND defense - Michigan has strong advantages -- 3rd down %, 4th down %, and red zone scoring %. FEI shows strong advantages too with Michigan offense outranking by an average of 20 ranks across all FEI stats and Michigan’s defense outranking MSU’s offense by 32 ranks across all FEI stats. Michigan is much more disciplined, ranking 34th vs 95th in penalties per play. They also make less mistakes, nor give up many sacks as Cade McNamara seems to maneuver great in the pocket and doesn’t make the dumb desperation throws. If it comes down to a kick we have the better kicker too so we can squeeze one out but I don’t think it will be necessary. This was my first write-up of the week, but was waiting in hopes it would drop 3. Now the whole world seems to be on Michigan State yet the line hasn't budged and I even saw it drop to -4.5 in some places? Good indicator that Michigan is the right side as well even though I don’t hold a lot of weight on line movement (as the bookies control that and who knows what those crazy a$$holes are up to)

Arizona State -16 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
How many times in history will you get to bet on a team that lost half its coaching staff, including its head coach for not getting vaccinated? This is the first and is sadly the new norm as big PHARMA implements it’s control over our individual rights (don’t get me started). Interesting tidbit I discovered in looking into play calling duties. Washington State lost one of it’s co-offensive coordinator Stutzman, as well as Rolovich and a number of other assistants. Brian Smith, the other co-offensive coordinator is now the play caller and defensive coordinator was made the head coach. Do you know who called the plays all season? Brian Smith called the majority of the plays the first 4 games when they went 1-3 and then STUTZMAN took over for the California game which led to the 3 game win streak and the offensive spark. So Smith averaged 17.25 points per game (not including his FCS game) and Stutzman averaged 28.6 points per game. Sure they kept their first game with BYU close, but I’m sure BYU didn’t know what to expect (and more reasons to like them this week). ASU had a bye last week to study up. By the numbers, Arizona State has very strong advantages on the offensive side of the ball, as Washington State’s defense has been piss poor, especially their run game that ranks 90th in PFF and allowing 4.7 yards per carry (ranking 92). This is where Arizona State THRIVES as they average 5.5 yards per carry, rank 16th in PFF running, and 18th in PFF run blocking. The line of scrimmage stats show this same huge mismatch as Arizona State outranks Washington State by 61 ranks across all categories. Even on the defensive line, Arizona State has an advantage as they outrank Washington State in almost every category and by an average of 16 ranks. ASU is great in the pass rush, and rank 10th in sack%, a place where Washington State struggles without a mobile QB, they rank 59th in sack%. FEI shows more mismatches on both sides of the ball, ASU offense outranks WSU defense by average of 32 ranks. ASU defense outranks WSU offence by an average of 47 ranks. Even without the coaching debacle, ASU has a strong edge in the numbers. Utah was able to stop the Arizona run game to contain the offense, but Washington State will not be able to. Lets go Sun Devils - and I guess this is square too bc of the coach firings but I bet on T. Tech with the fired coach! (and frick you big Pharma for stealing our rights - I’m not against vaccinations, I’m against stealing individual rights and handing them to the big corporations that have a long history of neglecting quality control, putting profits over human lives, and lying about drug side-effects. AHHH that's it, no politics - ALL FOOTBALL!)

California ML (+108) Risking 1 units to win 1.08 units
Got my tin-foil hat on for this one as the numbers I tend to look at and analyze for games won’t show you a huge advantage to California, but the market line speaks differently. On one side, you have a team that’s 2-5 with it’s only two wins being Colorado and FCS team Sacramento State, and on the other you have 5-2 Oregon State (and 5-2 ATS). In the last two years they’ve faced off, Oregon State has won and covered - and you finna tell me this game’s a PICK EM!? Bookies are begging you to take Oregon State as something dictates a big PAC 12 upset as they all seem to be eating each other up - and I think it happens again this week in Cal. Cal was actually one of my fav teams from the eye test coming into the season they were one of the only team total bets I made for the season - over 6 - and it’s been bad to this point but I think we somehow pull off a win as despite the poor record, Cal was right in the game to win against TCU and Oregon last week. Oregon State’s weakness is their secondary as they rank 83rd in PFF, and have been horrible on 3rd downs, ranking 126th in 3rd down conv %. Both offensive lines have strong advantages and both FEI numbers show strong advantages to the offenses - with poor defensively tackling. Expect a high-scoring affair and every season I like to bust out a few “tin-foil hat” specials and this is definitely one of them! I already see a few squares on the Beavers and sharps on the Bears.

Washington +2.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Love betting a 1-6 ATS team against an inferior team! Washington has had some growing pains this season but are starting to gel together. Both of these teams can't run the ball very well averaging 3.5 yards per carry, but both defenses have given up a ton of yardage on the ground. So this game will probably come down to the passing game where we have a STRONG advantage in the secondary as Washington’s secondary is one of the best in the nation ranking 3rd according to PFF (Stanford’s secondary ranks 74th). They've only given up 5.2 yards per pass (ranking 3rd) , where Stanford has given up 7.1 yards per pass. Also strong advantages on 3rd down conv % as Washington offense ranks #17 and #1 in red zone scoring as they scored in every red zone opportunity. Stanford is just average in those categories and have struggled on offense in 3rd down ranking 93rd. Much better tacklers as Stanford ranks 92nd in tackling and Washington ranks 55th. They are much more disciplined, ranking #17th in penalties per play, where Stanford ranks 103rd. They have a better turnover margin and kicker has hit more FG’s at a higher percentage. Sorry for the short writeup as I’m pressed for time this morning! Buy to 3!

Minnesota -7.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units
Again buy this to 7, I just get screwed on all my lines as I track on pick monitor (ALL HANDICAPPERS SHOULD USE 3rd PARTY VERIFICATION TRACKERS! WE NEED THIS TO ROOT OUT THE SCAMDICAPPERS AND BS’ERS WHO CAN'T ADD/TRACK THEIR OWN UNITS AND INFEST THE SPORTS GAMBLING COMMUNITY) Not much time for writeup this morning but just know Minnesota leads in all the stats I compare, significantly, and the stronger SOS. Mismatches on both sides of the ball in PFF, FEI, and Offensive/Defensive line. This should be an easy one like when Duke blew them out.
 
2daBank said:
when i looked at that uva/byu game over was really only thing that made sense to me also,, i havnt played it yet but might end up on it with you..

sneaky over for the week: i know you capped vtech/gtech, what you come up with? i think this could be a under the radar shootout. gtech is awful getting off the field on 3rd downs and while i dont like Burmiester he does have a knack of running around and making plays to keep drives going. the way Shrader tore apart hokies d with his scrambling to run and to throw down field i gotta think simms licking his chops who i think a little more talented. i just dont see a lot of punting in this game with a couple teams that gonna lay it out all there to try and get a win, acc been great for some these unexpected shootouts and think this could be another one (while canes/pitt surprises everyone and stays under! lol).
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I really didn't look to closely at that one as I havent watched or bet Gtech all season. In PFF, the numbers do show an advantage to both offenses as even though Vtech ranks 82nd overall in PFF offense, Gtech ranks 107th. Vtech's defense ranks 86th and Gtechs offense 56. Gtech's offensive line has a HUGE advantage in line yards, as Vtech's one of the worst defensive lines according to line yard stats. FEI shows slight advantages to both offenses too....hmm...I may sprinkle a little in on but not an official play as I didnt have enough time to dig too deep into and no Gtech read.
 
LOL Dan, I just remembered to check your thread and you and I are in lockstep in a lot of areas. Texas Tech is the best example. I could have just copied and pasted your writeup into mine to be honest. I'm still working on a couple and the ones from tonight that I'm considering are already here! UNC has burned me so much that I have a hard time taking them on a short number but I agree that the numbers are screaming NC.

Best of luck, and thanks again for taking the time.
 
Like you I usually like betting on Oregon State, but they have to be a road for me to do it. They've only been a road favorite once since Smith has been there and they failed to cover it. Teams in unfamiliar favorite roles usually don't do well, so I think you have something there.
 
Br@ssknux said:
LOL Dan, I just remembered to check your thread and you and I are in lockstep in a lot of areas. Texas Tech is the best example. I could have just copied and pasted your writeup into mine to be honest. I'm still working on a couple and the ones from tonight that I'm considering are already here! UNC has burned me so much that I have a hard time taking them on a short number but I agree that the numbers are screaming NC.

Best of luck, and thanks again for taking the time.
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you 2 do the best pick threads on the site imo.. enjoy reading both you guys write-ups almost as much as my own!! lmfao
 

DAPPER DAN PICKS:​

WEEK 9 RESULTS: 8-4 (+3.73 UNITS)​

SEASON YTD: 52-32 (+18.64 UNITS) (62%)​


Week 10:
CMU/W. Mich. Under 64.5 (-103)
Sorry fella’s no time for write-up as we got two hours til gametime and I have a busy evening. I just finished organizing all the numbers for this week’s games and this UNDER stuck out very nicely. That combined with the weather should be a nice opportunity for an under in this rivalry matchup.
 
In short, both defensive lines has strong advantages in almost every line yard category, with WMU outranking by 39 ranks and CMU outranking by 23 ranks on average. Especially in passing games where both offenses struggle as CMU ranked 80th in sack % up against WMU def ranked 3rd in sack%. WMU ranked 90th up against 28th CMU. Both defenses great on 3rd down. Both defenses weakness is their secondary which isnt a big threat in this weather. FEI shows strong advantae to WMU but CMU very sound tacklers - ranking 37th and run defense ranking 33rd according to PFF.
 
Week 9 Results: 8-4 (+3.73 units)
Season YTD: 52-33 (+17.61 units)

Week 10:
Utah -9 (-108)
Wake Forest +2.5 (-103)
Ole Miss -9.5 (-105)
Aub/TexAM under 50 (-105)
Penn State -10 (-105)
NC State -2.5 (-115)
Iowa -12 (-108)
Kentucky +1 (-109)



Week 10:

Utah -9 (-108) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Utah has been great this season since Rising took over like I mentioned in my last write-up in week 8 where we took them (where they let us down and were outscored 10-28 in 2nd half) He has opened up their run game as he’s a great passer who can also run periodically as he’s the 2nd leading rusher on the team and averaging 7.89 yards per carry the handful of times he does take off during the games - usually in broken down plays. The offensive line has really improved, last week not giving up a sack and rushing for 290 total yards on 44 carries averaging 6.59 yards per carry against UCLA who had one of the best rush defenses in the PAC 12 (ok not saying much). Unlike UCLA, Stanford has one of the WORST rush defenses in the league, let alone the PAC 12. The mismatch at the line of scrimmage is quite evident, with Utah’s offensive line outranking Stanford by an average of 85 ranks! Utah really does their damage on standard downs, ranking 2nd in the league - a place where the Stanford defensive line is horrible ranking 125th. In situations when Utah needs 4 yards on the ground, they get the job done ranking 8th in opportunity rate - a place where Stanford’s defense almost ALWAYS gives up yards for first down with a 128th ranked opportunity rate. Stanford’s offensive line has been struggling too ranking in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and although Utah’s defensive line hasn't been great - they still outrank Stanford's poor offensive line by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. They are averaging 3.34 yards per carry and were held to under 75 yards in 5 of their 8 games. They also struggle in pass protection, ranking 99th in sack%, an area where this Utah defense has been above average ranking #39th in the nation. Stanford is really banged up, and their best player on offense and starting QB, Tanner McKee, may even sit out and will be playing through injury if he does suit up. The WR corps has a number of questionable leading guys who have been sitting out the last few games and will most likely be in this game too. Utah has also been the much more disciplined team ranking #14th in penalties per play where Stanford ranks #88th. If you look at common opponents, Utah has beat every common opponent by double digits and Stanford has lost to 3 out of 4 of their common opponents (two by double digits). Utah is definitely a first half team so I would consider taking the 1st half line (PickMonitor doesn’t offer) and team total over if you're really looking for action this Friday Night! I got this at -7 (-125) at my bookie as my first play of the week, but sadly I didn’t lock into pickmonitor as I couldn't buy the half so I wanted to see and look now at 9 but I still love based off the numbers provided above.

Wake Forest +2.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Ahhh you know I love my Wake and I’m pissed I backed UNC last week AND this has very trappish vibes with Wake Forest being undefeated and UNC at 4-4 but the market to bet UNC every week is way more saturated then Wake Forest the last few years so we’ll chalk up the value we're getting to that. Here’s the numbers to show the wrong team is favored: UNC defense has been piss poor, in every category possible and this EXPLOSIVE wake offense outranks UNC’s defense by an average of 81 ranks across all positional matchups for PFF categories!! Hartman ranks 7th in passing and their WR’s have been even better ranking 3rd and they should torch UNC who rank 87th. Wake’s defense isn’t the greatest but ranks far better at 25th according to PFF then 97th for UNC. Wake also tackles better ranking 28th, unlike UNC who ranks 88th. Wake also has a strong advantage in the red zone on both sides of the ball as that has been an area that UNC struggles ranking 57th on defense and 61st on offense in red zone scoring %. This will most likely be a shootout, and I love how we also have the much better kicker (who has hit 91% of his kicks) - opposed to UNC who has only hit 66% of his kicks. And we are the much more disciplined team ranking #22nd in penalties per play opposed to #102nd in penalties per play. I’ll take these types of numbers all day with the smaller undefeated school although the weaker schedule of Wake definitely plays a role but I think we win this matchup more often than not.

Ole Miss -9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
You can crunch numbers all day in this matchup but at the end of the day, you’d be comparing apples to oranges as these strength of schedule mismatches are rare but great to get behind. Naturally, Ole Miss is an SEC power 5 team with an SOS ranking 14th in the nation. Liberty, an independent, has faced NOBODY! Their most difficult opponent would be Syracuse in which they lost 24-21. Their sagarin strength of schedule is 136th! Even with such an easy schedule, Malik Willis has been running for his life as they are ranked 123rd in sack% giving up sacks on 11.8% of their passes. Sack% is the ONE area this Rebel defense excels ranking #15th in the nation. Liberty's numbers are inflated as hell from their weak schedule and I’ve already talked about Ole Miss a lot, so short write-up here but should be an easy cash. Also playing in our favor is how under-valeud Liberty has been in the market the last two years, going 9-2 ATS last year and this year they are 6-3 ATS so far this year but I think they’re being over-valued in this spot due to that.

Aub/TexAM under 50 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Another SEC under? Oh ya! Texas A&M offense has seen some life lately but that’s been against some of the worst defenses in the league with Missouri, South Carolina, and Alabama (ha! Fook bama) They have yet to see a front like Auburn’s who held Ole Miss, one of the most efficient offenses in the league - to 20 points. Although you won’t see the mismatch in sack%, we see a big mismatch in the PFF ranks for this Auburn defensive line as they rank 24th in the pass rush, a place that Texas AM has struggled ranking 88th in pass blocking (PFF accounts for pressure and not just sacks). Auburn’s defense ranks 14th overall, 21st in coverage, 17th against the run, and 19th in tackling - solid across the board with no weaknesses. Texas A&M’s defense has been really good where it counts, in the red zone ranking #16th and on 3rd down, ranking #22nd. They’ve held opponents to 4.6 yards per play (ranking 11th) and let’s expect to see the crappy “MR. HYDE” side of Bo Nix’s inconsistent play that typically shows himself against tougher defenses and this Texas AM is one of them. They can bring pressure (which Nix hates) ranking 28th in sack%, but their secondary is one of the best in the league only allowing 5.9 yards per pass, with a passing efficiency defense of ranking 14th. Both defenses are in the Top 25 of TFLs per game, with Auburn ranking 4th and a place where this Texas AM offense has struggled ranking 70th in TFL allowed per game. Both defenses are in the Top 25 of long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. Both defenses are in Top 25 of tackling. 3 out of the 4 last times these two teams faced off it went OVER the total (one push) but I like our chances here with the under.


Penn State -10 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I wouldn’t want to be in Penn State’s way after 3 straight losses with Franklin, one of the better coaches in the league on the hot seat. On the other side we have Mike Locksley, who I have rated as one of the LOWEST head coaches in the league, how is this man still a head coach? His head coaching record all time is 13-46 and 5 of those wins came this year against SH!T teams. He spent 3 years as one of Saban’s many assistants (not even an important one) and Maryland decided to bring him back to lead this team where he went 5-12 the first two years. Penn State’s offensive line has really struggled as they have only mustered up 3.4 yards per carry on the season, and rank in the bottom 10% of most line yards categories. But they should finally get some push against a Maryland defensive line that ranks in the bottom 15% of line yard categories (except sack%). If they can’t get it on the ground, they’ll get some yards through the air as Maryland ranks 76th in defensive passing efficiency, 107th in yards per pass, and 105th according to PFF. Maryland’s defense has given up a ton of big plays ranking #117th in long scrimmage plays over 30 yards allowed - a place where Penn State doesn’t give up ranking #16th on defense. Maryland’s offense has struggled to stay out of the back field as they rank 97th in TFL allowed per game, a place where Penn State’s defense ranks 51st in TFL’s. Maryland’s offense lost 2 of its best WR’s recently and they will be tested against a tough Penn State defense. We should win the turnover battle as well - as Maryland has been averaging giving away 2 per game and Penn State’s defense averages two takeaways per game. We also have a strong special teams advantage as Penn State ranks 14th and MAryland ranks 92nd. I think this number is a bit low after Penn State’s 3 game skid but they should right this ship in this matchup against this soft Maryland team.

NC State -2.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Biting on the trap where the bookies open at 4 and dropped to 2.5 in classic fashion. NC State has been the much more consistent team, especially on defense where they rank 12th overall. Their biggest strength is their defensive line who ranks 3rd in rush defense and held the dual threat QB Malik Cunningham to only 76 yards on the ground last week and completed only 40% of his passes for 219 yards. Defensive line yards stats show they average a 12th ranking across all line stats (omitting their 88th sack ranking - as talking strictly run def). FSU needs to establish their run game as there's a huge discrepancy in their yards per rush in games they won and games they lost (last week they were only able to get 1.91 yards per carry against the Clemson front). FSU’s run defense started off the season with amazing numbers, but they have quickly regressed since losing starting DT, Briggs Jr for the season allowing 5.2 yards per carry in their last 4 games. NC State is very well rounded on offense, ranking 30th overall, 21st in passing, 55th in receiving and 60th in rushing (run rank + run block rank / 2) according to PFF. They DO NOT make mistakes as they rank 1st in giveaways per game in the league, unlike FSU who averages 2 giveaways per game! I think we see the bad-side of FSU come back out against this ACC rival who beat them up by 16 points last year and have been historically under-valued in this matchup as NC State has covered 16 times since 2000 with only 3 ATS losses and one push. (All the 90’s squares are still betting FSU?)

Iowa -12 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Last year Iowa was up 17-0 at halftime before losing 21-20 to Northwestern, but these are two very different teams as Northwestern had 11 guys invited to NFL camps in the summer leaving them with one of the most in-experienced teams for 2021, and it’s showing in their stats. Iowa's offense that has been struggling the last two games should build some momentum against a Northwestern defense that has been GOD awful (lost a long time defensive coordinator remember). They have allowed 5.8 yards per rush (ranking #122nd), allowed 47% of 3rd downs (ranking #120th), rank 90th overall in PFF and 81st in tackling. They’ve also had a SIGNIFICANTLY easier road then Iowa to date as Iowa has had the 16th hardest SOS according to Sagarin where Northwestern’s ranks 58th. Iowa’s defense has been great despite the tough schedule. I've talked about them a lot already and have been cashing them unders but this one may just sneak over the low set total of 40 as I don’t see Northwestern defense stopping Iowa. Their secondary should feast against Northwestern’s 3rd string QB (first two got benched, they sucked so much but who knows for sure who we’ll see). Iowa’s offensive numbers aren’t the best but what do you expect having to face Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa State and Colorado State’s (NEW POWERHOUSE) defenses. PFF shows strong advantages in every facet of the game for Iowa, except in pass blocking where Iowa has struggled protecting Petras, ranking #111th, but that’s not an area where Northwestern has been good at ranking 96th in pass rushing so let’s take all these points!

Kentucky +1 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
So the bookies set two trap lines the last two weeks with Kentucky and I leaned them and considered taking them strongly, but laid off taking them for the better and now the bookies are setting another?! Nah, this is obviously a fake trap line based on the numbers ;-). Let’s start with PFF where Kentucky’s offense outranks Tenn’s defense by an average of 25 rank across all positional matchups. On defense, Kentucky has the bigger mismatch as they outrank Tenn by an average of 40 ranks. Their secondary has struggled as of lately and dropped to 49th overall in PFF but that’s not a particular place this Tennessee offense can expose as they rank 59th in passing and 109th in receiving. We have a huge mismatch in tackling as Kentucky ranks 22nd and Tennessee, per usual, ranks 110th in tackling. Also in special teams as Tennessee ranks 126th, even making the 72nd ranked Kentucky special teams look good. Tennessee heavily relies on their running ability but Kentucky can stuff the run with the best ranking #17th ib yards per rush allowed. Their corners can easily match up with Tennessee's and stack the box against their run game. Tennessee will be forced to obvious throwing situations where they struggle at protecting their QB ranking #125th in sack %. Tennessee's rush defense has struggled against the tougher competition giving up over 200 yards to Ole Miss, Alabama, and UF - a place where Kentucky’s offense is just as good, ranking 24th in yards per rush at 5.2 ypc. Kentucky is also the much more disciplined team ranking 15th in penalties per play opposed to Tennessee that ranks #74th. Give me this in a pick-em all day and so be it if we lose.
 
i been kinda torn between playing auburn or the under, like both of them. pretty much just comes down to thinking both defenses will be tough to run on and think i trust Nix more than aggies qb. plus i always lean to taking the points in what i think prob a lower scoring game. gl this week
 
Love them Dan!

I agree with everything you say about Penn State, but the one thing that scares me to death with them is Franklin's ATS record off a straight up loss. They covered against OSU last week off the Illinois loss but that only brings them to 4-17-1 in that scenario. Maybe they'll get off the schneid, but this seems like a perfect game for them to fail again as they are laying a healthy number. I would never back Maryland here due to their recent history of falling apart down the stretch, but the PSU record off a loss kept me from seriously considering laying with them here.
 
2daBank said:
i been kinda torn between playing auburn or the under, like both of them. pretty much just comes down to thinking both defenses will be tough to run on and think i trust Nix more than aggies qb. plus i always lean to taking the points in what i think prob a lower scoring game. gl this week
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I went into the game leaning TexAM to fade Auburn, but started to liking Auburn more and more as I looked into but the under felt safest
 
2daBank said:
where you have the vols/uk score? that over has started to appeal to me.
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spreadsheets show small advantages to both offenses according to FEI. and both offensive lines with Kentucky's being more significant at 35 ranks across all categories. PFF shows big advantages to Kentucky's offense - but defense as well. Lean over but no play for me.
 
Finishing the card up.....only got a couple adds.....I'm loving all these 10-13 point favorites and I hate betting those so probably will lay off a lot and be a light week.
 
Week 10 adds:
Mia/Gtech over 63 (-105)
Oregon State -11.5 (-105)
Florida -20.5 (-105)

Mia/Gtech over 63 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Both offenses have made changes at QB that have shown some life to their teams. Sims lost his job in the first game but took over the starting role in their big upset win over UNC. Same thing with Miami as King started but got injured and Van Dyke took over the starting role where he has been great - even against a tough Pitt defense last week he completed 76% of his passes for 10.1 yards. He’s completing 63% on the season for 9.2 yards. Miami has yet to face a true running QB this season and Sims can beat you with his legs and he’s the 2nd leading rusher on the team averaging 6.42 yards per carry. The PFF ranks show the BIG reasons to take the over in this matchup. Across all positional matchups, both offenses outrank their defensive counterparts by an average of 46 ranks. Gtech prefers to run and that’s been a bigger weakness of Miami who ranks 104th in PFF rush defense. Miami prefers to throw which is the biggest weakness of this Gtech defense who ranks #115th in PFF coverage and 118th in defensive passing efficiency. (Miami ranks 81st in defensive passing efficiency) Neither team is good in the pass rush so both QBs should have plenty of time. Both defenses suck at tackling with Miami ranking 129th and Gtech 67. Both special teams are terrible with Miami's ranking 112th and Gtech 96th, which should lead to some good field position for both teams. FEI shows advantages to both offenses as well - just not as significantly. Miami is one of the fastest offenses in the nation with only a 45% TOP % yet ranked #18 in plays per game. They haven’t been able to run so they throw 55% of the time, which should stop the clock a lot. Both defenses are bad on 3rd down and in the red zone. Miami gives up a ton of penalties, and they are the favorite so lets hope some of those penalties extend Gtech’s drives. Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league of big plays over 30+ yards allowed and both offenses are in the top half. Both defenses are terrible at breaking up passes and Gtech ranks 128th in total passes defended per game and Miami ranks 91st. TAKE THE OVER~!

Oregon State -11.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
As if the numbers weren't mismatched enough already for this game, starting LB, leading tackler, captain of (BAD) defense - Nate Landman will most likely be sitting out as he is hampered by an injury and doesn’t want to risk his NFL aspirations. This game should be dominated in the trenches as the numbers dictate - showing the Beavers with a HUGE advantage given the fact they are quietly performing as the best offensive line in the league, according to Footballoutsiders line yards - they rank 1st in line yard, 1 in stuff ranking, 2nd in opportunity rate, and 3rd in power rankings. A monumental mismatch on paper for a Colorado defense who ranks 93rd in line yards, 51st in stuff ranking, 80th in power rank, and 65 in opportunity rank. Colorado’s offensive line is also outranked by Oregon state’s defensive line by an average of 20 ranks (75 ranks on offense) across all categories. The Beavs average 5.7 yards per carry ranking 4th and should run for 300 yards against Colorado who allows 5.3 yards per rush allowed. (ranked #115th). PFF shows Oregon State’s offense outmatching Colorado in every category by an average of 70 ranks. Oregon State’s defense, a bit too as they outrank in every category their offensive counterpart does as well just by a little less average of 20 ranks. Even as bad as Colorado’s stats are, most of them were in blowouts where they faced 3rd stringers, don’t go judging the bad stats, badly enough. Oregon State should win big and the bookies are still counting their dollars from last week's Oregon State trap (where we had Cal) so they maybe set a low line in this one. This one scared me as the line seems “trappy” and my “trap specialist” consultant “Darren Dimes” agrees….but after hearing about Landman being out - I had to go ahead and pull the trigger.

Florida -20.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I usually don’t even look at games with 2 TDs spread but this is another HUGE fav this week that stuck out like a sore thumb. South Carolina will most likely be on the 3rd string QB as Luke Doty started the season, got hurt, then Zeb Noland came in and is banged up so that leaves a little experienced Jason Brown. Even if it was Doty who led the team for most of the year, the stat mismatches are heavily skewed towards UF. This is another huge line of scrimmage mismatch as UF is Top 20 in almost every line category as Emory is a running QB and they’ve been averaging 6.1 yards per carry! (ranked 2nd). This is another devastating mismatch on paper as that is the biggest weakness of South Carolina’s team who ranks 126th in line yards, 111th in opportunity rate, 130th in power ranking and 129th in stuff ranking. Omitting the sack rank - that means UF O-Line outranks the Gamecocks D-Line by an average of 102 ranks! Biggest mismatch of the weak and more so then Utah last night over Stanford. Despite both being the SEC, UF has had the much harder schedule to go along with their better stats as they've had the 8th hardest sagarin strength of schedule and South Carolina 54th. Even though this UF defense is pretty terrible, against 3rd stringer, I’m sure they will be pinning their ears back and bringing pressure as they rank 12th in pass rushing according to PFF - a place where South Carolina has struggled all season ranking 116th in PFF pass blocking. There’s also a pretty significant advantage according FEI on both sides of the ball is UF defense outranks South Carolina’s offense by an average of 85 ranks across all categories (still can’t figure out why UF is ranked so high in FEI ranks - lol) Hopefully all these big favorites cover this week, and it’s not typical of what I like to bet. (I actually leaned a few more but laid off)
 

DAPPER DAN PICKS:​

WEEK 10: 5-6 (-1.33 UNITS)​

SEASON YTD: 57-39 (+17.31 UNITS)​


Sorry fellas, write-ups will be short and won’t be a big card this week as my brother is getting married tonight and slammed at work too so, this what we got so far….will add a few more tmrw morning possibly but FIRE AWAY ON THESE BABIES!

Week 11:
Michigan ML (+102) 2x
Baylor +6 (-105)
Minnesota/Iowa Under 37 (-102)
Boston College ML (+108)
Ohio State -20.5 (-107)
Notre Dame -5 (-105)
Ole Miss +2.5 (-105)

Michigan ML (+102) Risking 2 units to win 2.04 units
First two unit bet of the season and I love it. Been doing 1.5x units all season for my best bets but they’ve been hitting at a high rate so I’m upping to two units like years past. First off the eye test, I watch the BIG 10 a lot and what you see from Cade McNamara is a huge plus over Sean Clifford leading the other side. Clifford can’t handle pressure or pick up yards with his legs. Cade thrives under pressure with the 3rd lowest sack % in the league and buys time well with his legs for his receivers to get open. Penn State’s defensive line has been solid this year, but they haven’t faced an offensive line like Michigan who ranks 35th across all line categories - and have averaged 5.3 yards per carry ranking 16th in the nation. Although Penn State’s defensive yards per carry allowed has been good on the season - their rush defense ranks 94th in PFF so Michigan should be able to run at will. Penn State’s offense has really been struggling lately - especially on the ground - where they have averaged 2.06 yards per carry in their last 3 games and 3.3 yards per carry on the season. Their struggles should continue against a Michigan defensive line that ranks in the top 15 in every line yard category - and outrank Penn State’s offensive line by an average of 67.5 ranks in rushing line yard categories. FEI shows huge advantages for Michigan on the defensive side of the ball as they outrank Penn State’s offense by an average of 77 ranks across all FEI efficiency categories. Michigan’s defense should stop the run and get some pressure as they are a well rounded defense that ranks 3rd overall according to PFF, and 3rd in pass rush - a place where Penn State's offensive line has struggled ranking 50th in pass blocking. Penn State has won the last two years in this BIG 10 rivalry matchup but it's finally time for revenge as Michigan has the better team this season!

Baylor +6 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I’ve talked about these two teams a lot in past write-ups and this is just too many points for these soft BIG 12 defenses. I think Bohanon will be too tough for Oklahoma’s soft defense to contain and Baylor might even pull off the upset here but very safe with this many points.

Boston College ML (+108) Risking 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Jurkovec is back, baby! Good time to bet on Boston College and I was able to sneak them in live last week as those sneaky bastards waited until a few minutes before game time last week before officially announcing. Even though Boston College has been playing crippled on offense for the last 6 weeks with him out, the stats still show strong advantages to Boston College on both sides of the ball (some trap vibes though). In PFF, Boston College’s offense outranks G. Tech’s defense positional matchups by an average of 70 ranks. For G. Tech’s offense, if you omit the pass rush ranks as BC doesn’t like to bring pressure, then Boston College’s defense outranks Gtech by 46 ranks across all positional matchups. We have strong mismatches in tackling and special teams as well as Boston College is solid in both ranking 6th in tackling and 6th in special teams - where Gtech ranks 81st in tackling and 112th in special teams. Jurkovec should put up some big numbers against a Gtech passing defense that ranks 123rd defensive passing efficiency - another mismatch as BC’s passing efficiency defense ranks 21st in the league. Last year, Boston College dominated Georgia Tech at the line of scrimmage - average 6 yards per carry and only allowing G. Tech to run for 3.2 yards per carry - and won by 21 points. Worst case this is a close game but I think Boston College should win without issue. I actually was able to buy to +3 (-130) on one of my bookies and it is worth it if you can shop around and find.

Minnesota/Iowa Under 37 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Another nice BIG 10 under on paper. Both teams love to chew clock and run the ball. Especially this week for Iowa as Petras is out and back-up Padilla will be starting. Minnesota ranks 5th in TOP% at 58%, yet ranks 102nd with only 67 plays per game - an insane stat. I’ve talked about this Iowa defense a lot - both of these teams have strong defenses and FEI stats agree as Iowa’s defense outranks Minnesota’s offense by an average of 54 ranks across all categories and Minnesota’s defense outranks Iowa’s offense by an even bigger average of 71 ranks! The defensive line’s show the same mismatches. Sorry another short writeup but feel very good about despite the very low number - just like our wiscy/iowa matchup - even with multiple turnovers inside the redzone I think we still win this pretty easily.

Ohio State -20.5 (-107) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Ohio State should smash the upset specialists Purdue if you look at this game on paper and I think the oddsmakers agree with the high line even though Purdue has kept it close with the best teams in the Big 10 so far. Purdue has struggled with teams that out-match them at the line of scrimmage (like Wisconsin and Notre Dame), and Ohio State’s mismatch is tremendous on both sides of the ball. Purdue throws 60% of the time as they have been able to do nothing on the ground, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Ohio State’s defensive line has only allowed 3 yards per carry on the season and outrank Purdue’s poor offensive line by an average of 80 ranks across all line yard categories. On the other side Ohio State’s offensive line has been stellar - averaging 5.3 yards per carry and are 6th in line yards, 18th in opportunity rate, 30th in power ranking and 2nd in stuff ranking. A big mismatch on paper as they outrank Purdue’s defensive line by an average of 44 ranks across all categories. Once Ohio State stuff’s Purdue’s run game they can pin back their ears and bring a strong pass rush which they’ve been great at all season - ranking 7th in PFF. This will cause issues for Aiden O’Connell who’s offensive line ranks 55th in pass blocking. Overall, according to PFF, Ohio State ranks 1st in the nation and Purdue’s defense ranks 100th so I see no reason why the Buckeyes can’t beat them by more than 3 TD’s considering all the mismatches on paper but you never know betting football! I like our odds here!

Notre Dame -5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Betting against my beloved Virginia team here as this should be an easy win for Notre Dame. First off UVA’s defense is an absolute joke as we have all seen and rank in the bottom 10% of almost every measurable stat category possible. To make things worse, Brennan Armstrong is banged up and left last game and so is their leading rusher and important piece for pass protection - Wayne Taulapapa. The last time Taulapapa didn’t play their offense gave up 6 sacks and only scored 17 points against Wake Forest. Unlike UVA - Notre Dame’s defense has been great all around according to PFF, ranking 15th overall, 31st in coverage, 16th in rush defense, and 4th in tackling. Notre Dame’s offense has been struggling getting yards on the ground, only averaging 3.7 yards per carry on the season, but expect that to change against this Virginia defense that has been allowing a league worst 6.1 yards per carry. Notre Dame’s offensive line has also struggled at giving time for Jack Coan, ranking 107th in sack% this season, but again another issue that shouldn’t show in this game against a UVA defense that ranks 123rd in sack %. Hopefully Brennan and Taulapapa don’t play but regardless I think Notre Dame covers easily.

Ole Miss +2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
No writeup - sorry. Follow SEC closely and have watched and bet on these two teams frequently. Buy to 3 if you can.
 
damn, im gonna have to look closer at the mich/pen st and AM/rebs games cause i lean oppo on both of those. think i prefer clifford over michigans qb every day the week and twice on saturday.

far as aggies/rebs i dunno man, aggies are now playing like the top 5 and potential playoff team they were being hyped as coming into the season, rebs on the other hand a shell of themselves as they all banged up across the offense. just think aggies the healthier and better team as i like defense over offense and it not even close in this one.

love BC and ND tho.. Have a blast at the wedding and gl this week
 
Nice Bank! Good to see you loving BC and ND. Good luck this week

Only two adds no write-ups sorry. Family weekend in north carolina
‘
Week 11 Adds:
CSU/Air Force Under 45 (-105)
Arkansas -2.5 (-110)
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 11: 7-2 (+5.93 units)
Season YTD: 64-41 (+23.24 units) (61%)

Week 12:
FSU +2 (-105)
Michigan State +19 (-105)
Wake Forest +4.5 (-105)
Marshall -14.5 (-105)
UAB/UTSA under 53.5 (-105)
Minnesota -7.5 (+100)
UCLA -3 (-115)
Kansas/TCU over 64.5 (-102)
California ML (-125) 1.5x
Colorado State ML (-135)

Week 12:
FSU +2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Great spot to take FSU here as their team strengths match up well against Boston College. Boston College has been getting gashed on the ground lately dropping from their #17th ranked PFF rush defense to 47th now in a month and haven given up 999 yards (voodoo) on 168 carries giving up an average of almost 6 yards per carry to opponents over the last 4 games. The one strength of this FSU team is their rushing attack as Jordan Travis is a true dual threat QB and the team has been averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Their offense has been consistently scoring in the red zone, ranking 1st in the ACC and 18th in the country with a 71.4 Red Zone touchdown percentage. They’ve converted points on 25 straight red zone trips and that’s the 3rd longest streak in the nation. On defense, their biggest strength is what Boston College relies on - their run game. FSU’s rush defense ranks 11th in PFF and their defensive line outranks BC’s offensive line in every line yard category and by an average of 22 ranks. They will have to throw the ball and Jurkovec doesn’t have the best arm and throws a lot of ducks from what I’ve seen so far since he’s returned from injury. After losing 4 straight to start the season, Norvell has really turned around this FSU program winning 4 of the last 6 and losing only to Clemson and NC state. In the month of October, the FSU defense held opponents to 6 of 12 red zone conversions - ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive red zone stop rates. FSU has also had the much harder schedule according to sagarin as FSU ranks 25th in SOS where BC ranks 76th. I was born to hate the Seminoles but I still see value in betting them this game.

Michigan State +19 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Come on bookies, are you really going to undervalue this Michigan state team all year to the tune of 7-2 ATS already? This is just too many points as on paper both of these teams are pretty equally matched with both offenses outranking their defensive counterparts by 20 ranksl. Ohio State’s secondary is much weaker, ranking 70th in the nation and they will be facing a well rounded offense that ranks 32nd in passing, 12th in receiving, 22nd in rushing and 22nd in run blocking. Rarely in PFF do you ever see a team with a good run offense and good run blocking offense (usually one is high and one is low) but these are equally excellent with the lucky number 2’s! Although Ohio State's defense ranks high in most stat categories for yards per play- their defense has struggled on 3rd down, ranking 92nd in 3rd down conv %. Their offense that is accustomed to averaging 6 yards per carry shouldn't get that much push against a Michigan State front that has only allowed 3.3 yards per carry on the season against all opponents. I think this will be a close one even though Ohio State has won and covered the last 4 years in this matchup but this year Mel Tucker (the defensive guru) and his staff show this Buckeyes team this program is back. Their offensive coordinator, Jay Johnson, is already nominated for the Broyles award this season as explosive as this offense has been.

Wake Forest +4.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Clemson has done nothing impressive on offense to think they can keep up with Wake here. According to FEI ranks, Clemson’s offense ranks 102nd across all categories and #111th in yards per play - a huge difference from Wake Forest who averages 14th across all FEI categories and 21st in yards per play. Clemson’s offense will sputter enough on their own to not be able to keep pace with wake. Clemson’s defense is stellar per usual but they have yet to face a team as explosive as Wake’s who ranks 5th in passing. 6th in receiving and 7th in overall offense. Clemson’s disruptive pass rush shouldn’t affect veteran Hartman who has seen this Clemson defense a few times now and will be looking for revenge. This is the year to do it as Clemson clearly hasn't found the right QB to lead their team and Hartman has 4 years of starting experience under his belt. PFF ranks actually show mismatches on BOTH sides of the ball for Wake as their offense outranks Clemson’s defense by an average of 25 ranks across all positional categories and an average of 28 ranks against Clemson's offense. Wake has been excellent at protecting the ball this season and making plays on defense as they have a +1 turnover margin ranking 5th in the nation, an area where Clemson has struggled this season ranking 73rd in turnover margin. Wake is also much more disciplined ranking 34th opposed to Clemson’s 79th in penalties per play. Clemson has literally smashed the hell out of Wake for the last decade, without even having a spread less than 20 points! +4.5 was the largest possible number the bookies could give to Wake considering this market fact but this year won’t be like the others. Was strongly considering making this a 1.5x unit bet or sprinkling on moneyline but a lot of cappers I respect are liking Clemson so just the one unit! ARGH!

Marshall -14.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Of course buy this to 14 if you can - I’m just dealing with the woes of tracking on a site you can’t buy points all season but this looks like a blowout on paper regardless as Marshall lights up big in all 3 categories I focus - PFF ranks, offensive/defensive line, and FEI ranks. In the PFF this mismatch is the biggest as Marshall outranks terrible defensive positional counterparts by an average of 77 ranks as Charlotte's defense ranks 127th in overall defense. Marshall’s defense outranks Charlotte's offense too by an average of 37 ranks across all positional categories and the tackling mismatch is huge as Marshall ranks 36th in tackling and Charlotte ranks 126th. Teams that can’t tackle always get blown badly and Charlotte is susceptible to the big play as they rank 120th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards allowed. Marshall’s offensive line outranks the Charlotte defensive line by 48 ranks. FEI shows Marshall should put up big numbers as they outrank across all categories by an average of 56 ranks. Marshall’s defense is actually in Top 25 of almost all FEI categories so Charlotte’s lower ranked offense will struggle. Marshall’s defense also ranks 6th in red zone scoring % allowed where Charlotte’s offense struggles ranking 106th. This is an important game for Marshall in the conference as they stand one game behind WKU and still get to play them. Charlotte has loss 3 of the last 4 and after a rough start for Marshall, their team is meshing and has won 4 of the last 5 with only losing to UAB in a close one last week. No one has been betting Marshall on the road as they are 6-1 ATS in last 7 road games. Charlotte is the much worse team and Marshall should run away with this.

UAB/UTSA under 53.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I usually don’t like to bet these crap teams that I haven’t ever watched any games for but my sharp buddy, 2dabank, pointed out this total and after looking at the numbers, it has strong implications of an under-brewing. First off both teams prefer to run, with UAB running 60% of the time, the clock probably won’t stop moving. But the biggest strength of both of these teams is their run defense as UTSA has only given up 2.7 yards per carry on the season (ranking 4th) and UAB has only given up 3.1 ypc (ranking 10th). The defensive line mismatch on both sides of the ball agree that both teams should struggle to run with UTSA outranking UAB’s offensive line by an average of 41 ranks across all categories and UAB outranking UTSA’s offensive line by an average of 23 ranks across all categories. UAB should really struggle in their passing game as they rank 124th in sack % and UTSA ranks 24th in sack%. Without being able to run the ball they should be in long down and distance 3rd downs where the pass rush can really bring some pressure on them like they have all season. Both teams defenses have been doing well in the red zone and 3rd’s downs where UTSA ranks 7th in red scoring % and #29th in 3rd down conversion %. UAB will milk the clock themselves as their TOP% is ranked 27th in the nation yet rank 125th in plays per game. These two shit teams are familiar with each other as they played the last 4 years and the Under is 2-1-1 and I think we got another under in this matchup and one you probably shouldn’t watch - ha.

Minnesota -7.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Buy this to 7….Ugh….don’t think it matters but lot’s of reasons to love Minnesota here. Indiana will most likely be on the third string walk on QB as Penix went down for the season and Tuttle is questionable, but even if he does play this team is a dumpster fire on both sides of the ball right now. Indiana’s defensive numbers started off with great numbers on the season but have quickly dropped as they’ve been stuck on the field most of the game with an inept offense. Minnesota loves controlling the clock and moving the chains slowly with a TOP% of 59% ranking 4th in the nation. Minnesota should run the ball well as they outrank Indiana’s defensive line by an average of 32 ranks across all categories. Minnesota's struggles on offense has been in pass protection but that’s not a strength of this Indiana defense who ranks 117th in sack rank. Indiana has been sloppy with the ball, averaging 2 giveaways per game so we should win the turnover battle as Fleck’s squad only averages 1 per game. Minnesota’s play calling has been great in the red zone, scoring on 90.91 % of red zone opportunities. A place where Indiana’s defense struggles, and coincidentally have allowed opponents to score on exactly 90.91% in red zone scoring % (more weird voodoo). If you omit the Maryland game (such a bad team), in the last 6 games this Indiana offense has averaged 6.5 points per game. This Minnesota defense is more than capable of stopping them by outranking them by 47 ranks across all categories in FEI. PFF also shows Minnesota defense should stuff them up as they outrank Indiana’s offense by an average of 31 ranks across all positional matchups. Despite losing their last two against two very good defenses, I think Minnesota wins this one by a lot more than one TD.

UCLA -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I loved this play before looking at the injury report and USC has a TON with a total of 22 listed including starting QB, Kedon Slovis. UCLA should run all over this USC defense that has been horrible against the run, ranking 84th in PFF and allowing 4.7 yards per carry (ranked 98th). The offensive/defensive line mismatch is HUGE with UCLA’s offensive line outranking USC’s defensive line by an average of 65 ranks and they have really done their damage on standard downs ranking 11th in the nation a place where USC has really struggled ranking 102nd in standard downs (classic mismatch we look for on 1st and 2nd down - we’ve been eating these up all season) FEI numbers agree that UCLA should put up 35+ as they outrank USC defensive by the FEI categories by an average of 60 ranks too. USC has won and covered the last two years in this matchup giving us extra value but I think UCLA pulls out the easy win here. Short and sweet writeup here!

Kansas/TCU over 64.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Put a number as high as you want as this one as although TCU played inspired last week and upsetting Oklahoma State - I think we see a return to the standard of the shit defense that has plagued TCU this year. Kansas has seen some life on offense with new starting QB, Jalon Daniels who shedded his redshirt to play for Kansas in its final few games. They put up 57 in a huge upset for themselves last week. Both teams defenses are in the bottom of almost all positional categories - including tackling where Kansas ranks 100th and TCU ranks 123rd. Mis-tackles are a fun thing to watch when you’re betting an over. TCU has still been great on the ground and that’s the biggest weakness of this Kansas defense and their defensive line is outranked by TCU’s offensive line by an average of 60 ranks. The FEI numbers show strong advantages to both offenses as Kansas outranks by an average of 33 ranks (with most of those numbers coming from a diff offensive QB) and TCU’s offense outranking by an average of 33 ranks across all categories. Both defenses have given up a ton of big plays, over 40+ yards Kansas ranks 88th and TCU and even worse 129th. Both defenses are terrible on 3rd down ranking 124th and 130th. Both defenses are terrible in the red zone, ranking 103rd and 127th. This should be another BIG 12 shootout that may be overlooked by most.

California ML (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5x units
My favorite most dangerous play of the week due to COVID regulation you never know what to expect out of these California teams as Cal had 2 dozen players sit out last week which led to their loss against Arizona. I expect them to come out firing (and pissed off) after being forced to sit due to over-reaching HIPPY (ironic) regulations. The one thing Cal offense can do really well is run the ball ranking 7th in line yards, 10th in opportunity rate, 29th in power ranking and 15th in stuff ranking. A tremendous mismatch on paper where you may remember Stanford last primetime game where their defensive line left holes so big they broke all kinds of records and averaged almost 10 yards per carry, lol. Stanford’s defensive line averages out to 118th across all d-line categories. Cal’s defensive line should also have a mismatch as they outrank Stanfords horrible offensive line by an average of 25 ranks across all line categories. FEI shows the same mismatches as Cal’s offense outranks Stanford defense by an average of 20 ranks and Cal’s defense outranks Stanford’s offense by an average of 43 ranks. Is Tanner McKee back? Who cares? I don’t think this one matters when the other team is averaging 5 yards per carry on you and moving the chains at will. This should be more of the same from a Stanford program that has really fallen off but the market setters have yet to adjust enough, especially against a Cal team coming off an asterisk disappointing loss to the worst team in the PAC 12.

Colorado State ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
You will rarely ever see me play a late night Hawaii game but I like this one a lot so decided to pull the trigger. Talked a lot about this Colorado State defense already, they are ranked 16th overall in PFF, 13th in pass rush, 22nd in secondary, 41st in run defense, and 28th in tackling. A huge PFF mismatch for Hawaii’s offense that ranks 94th overall. On offense, Although Colorado state hasn’t been great they’ve had a decent passing game which ranks 31s in passing and 45th in receiving - the biggest weakness for this Hawaii defense who’s secondary ranks 108th and overall they rank 81st. According to FEI ranks this Hawaii offense shouldn’t do much as they are outranked by CSU’s defense by an average of 62 ranks across all categories. Colorado State has had a much harder schedule and if you look at the common opponents Colorado State has bested the score margin by an average of 20 points in both games. Colorado State’s defense is great on 3rd down and the red zone - an area where Hawaii’s defense struggles. Colorado State’s defensive line ranks 2nd in qb sack % and Hawaii’s offensive line ranks 100th in sack % so expect lots of disruption in the back field and I think Colorado State wins handedly I just hate Hawaii games, ha.
 
"crap teams"? how dare you!! i love Uab and utsa!! there nothing crap about them!! lol.. i love that under myself, should be a very defensive kinda game, i thought that number was a good 3-4 points higher than my high side for the game, could easily see it like a 24-21 game. with you on gophers and cal as well, gl this week
 
Lol my bad, you're right - over worked and mixed that up when trying to crunch everything in Friday night. Thanks for noticing that under as my eyes glaze over any times I read those teams haha:pointandlaugh:
 
DapperDan said:
Lol my bad, you're right - over worked and mixed that up when trying to crunch everything in Friday night. Thanks for noticing that under as my eyes glaze over any times I read those teams haha:pointandlaugh:
Click to expand...

i was bout to go look as i didnt remember how that game went, just pretty sure i would have heard more bout it if tcu beat okie lite, lol.

i like both those teams but what can i say, im a big fan of the smaller schools/conferences!! think you identified a good one for not paying much attention to these teams!! i think it far more likely to be played in the low to mid 40s than close to this number they hung!! i wanted to play UAB+4 or ml, i think there some value with them but didnt want to get in the way of utsa who seems to be on a mission, luckily under looks just as good! i wanted a play on this game cause im as excited for this game as i am any others today! lol, maybe with exception of smu/cincy but i totally passed on that one as i couldnt come up with a play i felt good about!
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 12: 5-5 (-0.02 units)
Season YTD: 69-46 (+23.22 units)

Happy Thanksgiving, there will be some more to eat tmrw! This is my busiest week of the year at work so will try to get all the write-ups in but I got all the numbers done really early in the week to get a head start on all these great Friday games - already a few that stick out and will be spending my day off work crunching the football numbers! Bookies pissed me off with our 3rd "losing week" of the season and this is the last FULL SATURDAY SLATE! DIG IN! This what we got so far.

Week 13:
Miss/Miss State over 62 (-105)
Nebraska +1.5 (-105) 1.5x

Week 13:
Miss/Miss State over 62 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This in-state rivalry has gone under the total the last 4 years, but there’s reason to believe it will go over the total this season. Since the beginning of the season it was no secret that Ole Miss defense had holes and their offense was explosive, the oddsmakers in turn have been setting extremely high totals for them all season, and Ole Miss has gone 3-8 on the over/under. As a result, this line seems a bit low especially when you consider how these two teams operate. Mike Leach and his air raid are still ranking 1st in the league in pass % and both teams rank in the top 10 of plays per game. According to FEI, both offenses have advantages in almost every advanced stat category and by an average of at least 25 ranks between both teams. Both teams are heavily penalized which should extend drives more often then it sets the chains back and if it did set the chains back these offenses have shown more than capable of hitting the big play, especially Ole Miss who ranks 24th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards and 23rd in over 40+ yards. Ole Miss is 5th in plays over 10+ yards and Miss State ranks 24th. Ole Miss is biggest strength is their pass rush, which usually isn't an issue with Leach’s air raid as they get the ball out quickly and rank 25th in sack% allowed. Both defenses are in the bottom 3rd of the league in completion % allowed and both QBs started last year against each other and had big games so they know these defenses. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a special teams TD as things always get weird in the Egg Bowl and let’s root for points.

Nebraska +1.5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units
My favorite play of the week but I didn’t make 2 units as it’s tough to predict how new starting QB Logan Smothers will look in his starting debut. On HUDL film, he’s extremely quick and can break ankles when he takes off. At the spring game he started off rusty but was making good throws after he warmed up, very quick release and let’s see if he’s the guy to take this Frost team to the next level. Adrian Martinez has been the biggest thorn in Nebraska’s side for the last 4 years so I’m relieved he’s gone as you can’t count on one hand how many games he single handedly lost with a terrible turnover. This Nebraska defense is quietly rising through the ranks of the top defenses in the league, and held Ohio State’s #1 offense to a season low point total of 26 points two weeks ago. According to PFF they rank 23rd in coverage and biggest weakness is their rush defense that ranks 104th in the league. Lucky for them, Iowa has shown no ability to run the ball over the season as they are 105th in the run game according to PFF and have averaged 3.1 yards per rush on the season (ranking 121st). Iowa’s offense ranks in the bottom of most defensive categories including 107th in 3rd conv %, 104th in red zone scoring, 109th in yards per pass and #110th in sack%. Alex Padilla has started the last few games and although he has won all their starts, it’s been against weak teams and he hasnt shown anything impressive completing 39 of 83 passes on the season for an average of 6.3 yards and only 2 TDs and 1 INT. Iowa will rely on their defense like it usually does but Scott Frost is one of the more difficult offenses to plan against, especially with a new mobile weapon leading the team. They were able to put 28 points with Martinez last week against Wisconsin and outgain them with the difference in the game being a special teams TD to open the game, (and a few Martinez INTs of course) Nebraska has also had the much harder schedule as they rank 3rd in SOS ranks and Iowa ranks 40th. You also have a 9-2 team vs a 3-8 team yet the line is a pick-em? Tin-foil hat red flag too. Let’s take the home team in which should be a big upset.
 
i was dying to play iowa with martinez starting, not so much anymore,. turnover machine vs a team who wins by taking ball away seemed like a really good matchup, bummed frost didnt let me have it! lol!!

happy thanksgiving bro
 
Week 13 Adds:
Coastal Carolina -15 (-105)
NC State -6.5 (-105)
Michigan +7.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh -13.5 (-105)

Coastal Carolina -15 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This was the best 2 TD’s favorites on Friday after looking them over all very closely. By the numbers, Coastal has very strong advantages as they outrank South Alabama by 61 ranks on offense in PFF and 72 ranks on defense. On defense, they should really do damage in the pass rush as they rank 17th in PFF pass rush and South Alabama ranks 120th in pass blocking. At the line of scrimmage C. Carolina’s defensive line outranks South Alabama’s offensive line by an average of 37 ranks - and it’s not because Coastal Carolina’s defensive line is that good, it's just that the South Alabama O-line is in the bottom 5% of most categories. FEI shows the same mismatches and if you combine these 3 mismatches on paper, as well as the fact that South Alabama recently lost starting QB Jake Bentley who missed the last 2 games which has made South Alabama's offense even worse averaging 10.5 points in the last two without him starting, I see no reason why Coastal doesn’t win by 3+ TDs.

NC State -6.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
North Carolina has won the last two years and covered the last 4 games in this head to head matchup. But by the numbers this season, NC State has lots of advantages. Overall on both sides of the ball the advantage is clear as even though North Carolina ranks a nice 45th overall, they are facing a 16th overall defense that is great against the run, which sets up UNC’s passing game - NC State ranks 8th in run defense according to PFF. NC State prefers to pass - and that's the biggest weakness of UNC as their pass rush ranks 117h and secondary ranks 91st. UNC’s defense ranks 81st in defensive passing efficiency and 95th in 3rd down conversion % allowed. These are huge mismatches as NC State's defense has only allowed opponents to convert 30% of their 3rd downs - ranking 6th, allowing opponents to average only 4.7 yards per paly - ranking 14th. UNC has struggled at protecting their QB, ranking 123rd in QB sack % and NC State ranks 56th in sack%. Howell is also banged up and didn't play the last game so his mobility will be limited (another important piece to their offensive success) . Overall, in the trenches, NC State’s offensive line out ranks UNC’s defensive line (that ranks in bottom 10% of most categories) by an average of 22 ranks. Even though UNC has had a strong rushing attack they have yet to face a defensive line like NC State that ranks 10th in line yards, 3rd in power ranking and 3rd in stuff ranking. Against Georgia Tech and Pitt, UNC couldn’t average more than 2.5 yards per carry and lost both games by more than 7. Sagarin agrees that not only has NC State had the stronger schedule but a much higher overall Sagarin ranking of 18th compared to UNC’s 49th sagarin rank.I think this one's NC State should win big regardless if Howell plays, but if he doesn’t - we should cash this easily.

Michigan +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Yes, we know Ohio State’s offense is so great, but they haven’t faced a defense like Michigan’s that currently ranks 2nd overall, 3rd in the pass rush, 10th in coverage, 6th in rush defense and 6th in tackling. There’s not one area of the game that they have struggled according to PFF. The differential between Ohio State's backs and receivers vs Michigan's defense is -7 in the passing game and -3 in the rushing game. The differential between Michigan’s backs and receivers vs the buckeyes defense is larger with a -16 in the passing game and -25 in the running game. Ohio State’s defense is ranked 29th overall, 60th in coverage, and 54th in tackling. I love taking this many points with the better defense. Despite OSU ranking 1st in most FEI rankings they will be up against a Michigan defense that is in the Top 10 of almost all FEI rankings (unlike Michigan State last week). FEI shows they are evenly matched so the extra 7 points is a huge +. I mentioned before how banged up this Ohio State team is and it got worse last week as they lost a few more including starting center Harry Miller who’s been banged up all season. I know Harbaugh has struggled in these big match-ups but if you look at every important statistical category this Michigan is solid on both sides of the ball, even special teams as they are ranked 19th in special teams this year. They are also much more disciplined only ranked #32nd in penalties per play opposed to OSU that ranks 65th. Michigan has been great at possessing the ball and controlling the clock, ranking 17th in the nation in TOP%. Let's hope they grind this one out and keep it close with the Buckeyes who are being overvalued after last week's beatdown of Michigan State. Also word on the street is there's a ton of public money on Ohio State, granted - the bookies control the “words on the street” (big shocker) but I think in this case they’re right and are on Vegas's side. (until we be moving lines ;-)

Pittsburgh -13.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh matches up very well against this Syracuse team which makes me think this will be a blowout. In PFF, Syracuse’s biggest weakness on defense is their secondary that ranks 70th overall and they should be exploited by Pickett who ranks 1st in passing, and his receivers rank 21st overall. Syracuse’s offense relies on running the ball as Garret Shrader has only completed 50% of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per pass with 7 TDs and 4 INTs ( in 8.5 games!?) They’ve had to run the ball all season to get any production but that is the biggest strength of this Pitt defense that ranks 25th in rush defense. The trenches show a mismatch on both sides of the ball as well as Pitt’s d-line outranks Syracuse by an average of 25 ranks across all categories and their pass rush should be very problematic as Pitt ranks 5th in QB sack rank and Syracuse ranks 115th in sack rate allowed. Pitt’s offensive line out ranks Syracuse defense line significantly too by an average of 20 ranks, but if you exclude the sack %, the mismatch is even bigger on the ground as the average jumps to 28 ranks. FEI shows a much bigger mismatch on paper as Pitt’s offense and defense are in the top 25 of most rankings where Syracuse's offense and defense are below average on both sides of the ball with an average ranking of 70th on defense and 80th on offense. For the last 3 years, Pitt has won this matchup but in close games, but I think this one they win easily by 2 TD’s plus as they have won 3 straight and are hitting their stride averaging 44 in the last 3 where Syracuse has lost two straight, and were held to a season low two weeks ago against Louisville where they only scored 3 points.
 
How did you figure the fact Pitt has already cinched the division and has the title game next week into your calculations?

I''m 4-0 on Pitt this year so I like them, but I don't know what to make of the title game looming next week
 
TahoeLegend said:
How did you figure the fact Pitt has already cinched the division and has the title game next week into your calculations?

I''m 4-0 on Pitt this year so I like them, but I don't know what to make of the title game looming next week
Click to expand...
Honestly I'm not one to factor the situational schedule angles as much as other cappers do. I get so focused on numbers and matchups in games but I've found that's definitely a weakness of mine and have had plenty of opportunities and "red flags" in situational angles I should have stayed away from in the past but this doesn't seem like one of them to me.
Rough start to the week.....been crunching all night and willl be into the morning.....
 
Sorry it has been a rough few days but we bounce back this weekend. This WILL BE A WINNING DAY and let's see if we can pull ourselves out of an 0-4 -4.67 start to close out the season with another winning weekend!!

Week 13 Adds:
FSU +3 (+105)
Rutgers ML (+110)
Rutgers +1.5 (-105)
Michigan State +4 (-105)
Vanderbilt +31.5 (-105)
Wisconsin -7 (-108)
Oklahoma State ML (-175)
Kentucky +3 (-110)
TexAM/LSU Under 47 (-105)

FSU +3 (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Two teams going in the opposite directions - no idea what those bookies are up to with this number as I think FSU should be favored by 4. :shrug:. Much like Boston College last week, UF doesn’t have a QB who can throw, and Emory is banged up with an ankle injury - they should struggle to run against this FSU defense that ranks 11th in rush defense and 11th in tackling. A big difference in PFF rankings then UF on that side of the ball as they rank 71st in rush defense and 76th in tackling. UF’s secondary is even worse - ranking 110th overall. UF has lost 4 of it’s last 5 after winning 5 of its first 7 with it’s only win this last month being Samford where they gave up 52 points. FSU has won 6 of it’s last 8 after losing the first 4 games of the season and are finally coming together under Norvell. You would expect the SEC team to have a much better schedule but this FSU squad has faced a tough road when you consider Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Clemson and Miami (THE U!) - they rank 24th in SOS and a bit better than UF’s 51st. Head to head, Florida has dominated the last two times but these are completely different programs now since they last played pre-covid. I expect the momentum that FSU is building to carry over in this rivalry game and come up with a big upset in the swamp.

Rutgers +1.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Rutgers ML (+110) Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units
If you’ve been following my write-ups you know I hate this Maryland team (especially coaching staff) and there’s some crazy mismatches on paper that point out a hefty coaching advantage for Rutgers (I love Schiano!). Although Rutgers defensive numbers aren’t great - they are ranked 5th in 3rd conversion percentage allowed and 15th in red zone scoring % allowed. A HUGE mismatch as Maryland offense has struggled on 3rd downs ranking 112th in 3rd down conversion % and 125th in red zone scoring %. Although Rutgers offense has seen the same struggles in the red zone and 3rd down, they should convert a few of both since Maryland’s defense has been so bad ranking 115th in 3rd down conv % and 62nd in opponent red zone scoring %. According to Line Yards, Rutgers should stuff the run even though they don’t have great numbers in yards per rush this season, they do rank 4th in line yards, 6th in opportunity rate, 41st in power ranking and 6th in stuff ranking. Line yards have been a problem for this Maryland offense that ranks 99th in line yards, 101st in opportunity rate, 89th in power ranking, and 85th in stuff ranking - so Rutgers d-line outranks them by an average of 50 ranks across all categories . Rutgers has also been much better at protecting the ball as they rank 24th in TO margin/game where Maryland ranks 125th. Rutgers is also a much more disciplined team ranking 45th in penalties per play opposed to Maryland's 94th. Schiano loves to play possession ball ranking 38th in TOP%, a place where Maryland has found no consistency ranking #115th in TOP%. We also have a nice advantage in special teams as Rutgers ranks 67th in PFF and Maryland ranks 103rd. I started this out as a 1 unit play but then decided to up to two units - so I got the ML and the points.

Michigan State +4 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
No write-up :-(. Just believe.

Vanderbilt +31.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
The defensive prowess of Clark Lea can be seen hidden in Vanderbilt’s horrible defensive numbers this season. Despite giving up some of the worst yards per play in the league ranking #121st, he still knows what defensive play to call on 3rd down (ranks 32nd in 3rd down conv%) and what to call in the red zone (ranking 28th). Their offense has struggled but this Tennessee defense is not one to beat anyone by more than 4 TD’s as they rank in the bottom of the league in 3rd down conv% (ranked 116th) and red zone scoring % (ranked 115th) . They are terrible at tackling - ranking 96th in PFF and 80th in coverage, and 95th in completion % allowed. Vanderbilt’s offense is nothing to brag about on paper but they have kept the last 3 games within an average of 2 TDs against much better teams in Kentucky and Ole Miss. (I don't give a damn that Kentucky lost to Tenn - they better!) The games Vanderbilt has really struggled is when the other team has had a good pass rush but that is not a strength of this Tennessee team. Mike Wright is a much better option then Ken Seals and since he’s started the offense has been much improved with him doing lots of damage on the ground too. Tennessee will probably be without their leading running back Tiyon Evans who didn’t play last week and 3rd leading WR Javontay Payton. They say it’s a rivalry game but I still wouldn’t recommend watching this one and just tune in the end where worst case we catch a back door?

Wisconsin -7 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1`units
Wisconsin should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They have found their identity on offense which is RUN The ball and they’ve been doing it dam well averaging 5 yards per carry and new freshman RB Braelon Allen has ran for at least 100 yards in his last 7 games (since he took over the bulk of the carries) and they’ve won all 7. Minnesota’s defense struggles against the run ranking 72nd according to PFF, although their yards per rush allowed is 3.5 on the season, the numbers vary drastically from the level of competition as the better running teams have averaged over 4.5 yards per carry like Indiana last week (4.27) but then the Bowling Green, Maryland’s and Iowa's were held to under 3 yards per carry. This offensive line will push you around and rank in the upper ⅓ of most line yard categories. Did I mention the strength of schedule mismatch? Wisconsin's road has been extremely tough, ranking 8th in the nation and still putting up some of the best defensive numbers in the league. Minnesota ranks 58th in Sagarin's SOS and their defense has plenty of holes that Wisconsin should take advantage of. Do I have to list off all of the insanely good Wisconsin defensive numbers again? Nah, just trust me and throw Wiscy ML in all your parlays.

Oklahoma State ML (-175) Risking 1.75 units to win 1 units
Ahh I hate big ML favs but I love this one for a unit. Has anyone seen these defensive numbers for Oklahoma State? I’ve been certainly overlooking them - ranked #1st in sack%, ranked 3rd in yards per play, ranked 1st in 3rd down conv % allowed, 1st in TFLs, 4th in overall defense in PFF and 2nd in PFF rush defense. Every category and the only reason this line is as low as it is is because Oklahoma has beaten Oklahoma State for 6 straight years, and covered in 5 of them. The mismatch on paper has never been this big in favor for Oklahoma State though as Oklahoma’s offense has struggled at protecting their QB, (ranked 91st in sack%), and on 3rd down on offense (ranked 49th). Their defense has always struggled which I’ve brought up often in past write ups and they currently rank 65th in coverage and 49th in rush defense - you know I love betting the better defense! All these numbers are significantly better with a much better SOS as Oklahoma State ranks 26th and Oklahoma ranks 61st in Sagarin SOS. This is the year Oklahoma State finally upsets Oklahoma but we take the juice because we’re a little scared of these rivalry matchups but have no doubt Oklahoma State wins!

Kentucky +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Kentucky should be able to run all over Louisville. Last week Duke ran for 6 yards per carry (okay it was mostly garbage time but still!). The offensive/defensive line matchup show big advantages for Kentucky as they are one of the best in line yards, ranking 4th in line yards, 5th on standard downs, 4th on passing downs, 1st in opportunity rate, and 4th in stuff ranking. A big mismatch against Louisville's defensive line who ranks 80th in line yards, 78th on standard downs, 63rd on passing downs, 82nd in opportunity rate, and 39th in stuff ranking. Louisville prefers to run (57%) of the time and that’s been the only good thing about this over-hyped Kentucky defense as they rank 21st in yards per rush and 21st in PFF. After LSU they went through a 3 game stretch where their secondary got torched by Georgia, Miss State and Tennessee. This Louisville team isn't on the same level and rank 51st overall in receiving. In PFF Kentucky surprisingly shows the biggest advantages as they rank 7th overall, 22nd in passing, 25th in receiving, 24th in rushing, 11th in run blocking and 16th in pass blocking. PFF doesn't factor in SOS but still these are impressive and consistent numbers that outrank their defensive counterpart by an average of 58 ranks for Louisville. Louisville rush defense ranks 93rd and tackling 55th - where Kentucky ranks 21st in rush defense and 22nd in tackling. Kentucky’s strengths just matchup great against Louisville's weaknesses so we take the points with the better defense…..and always remember SEC > ACC!

TexAM/LSU Under 47 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I went back and forth on the side to play on this one and ultimately decided the under was the best play. According to PFF, both teams' defenses have huge advantages with LSU by an average of 25 ranks across all categories and TexAM by 40 ranks. Texas AM really struggles at pass blocking - ranking 104th in PFF, a huge mismatch for LSU that has brought lots of pressure, ranking 26th in the pass rush. LSU’s offensive line should have some struggles of their own as they rank 94th sack rank and Texas A&M defense ranks 38th. Kinda weird how one shows a big mismatch on PFF and the other in sack % but neither show strong advantages in both. Both defenses are great at tackling, ranking 14th and 24th. Both defenses are in the Top 20 of TFL and both offenses have allowed their fair share of TFL’s at 5.5 per game. Neither offense is a big play threat and rank in the bottom ⅓ of plays over 30+ yards, and both defenses are great at limiting them. Both defenses outrank the offenses according to FEI - with LSU’s defense being less of a mismatch but they’ve had a much harder SOS than TexasAM. Orgeron’s last game and the weaker team is at home but Death Valley will be LOUD AS HELL at night, especially since the fan base seems to love old Ed. (I say this mostly from a drunk tailgating experience back in 2018 with Miami vs LSU). That's why they didn't just fire him. Let’s finish off the season with a nice SEC under. If you’re interested in a side - you may be completely mind-fucked that LSU has covered 10 straight years - a strange feat that I wouldn’t want to be on the same side of in this matchup but couldn't bring myself to take that many points and “felt safer” with the under.
 
I wanted to play fsu but I been burnt too many times playing against teams the week coach got fired this season, for most part they have all responded so I decided to stay away. I tried telling myself going to a bowl more important to noles but I think it dangerous trying to cap motivation in the rivalries!

I like pitt also but motivation does worry me a bit here. I ended up playing them -7 1st half just in case they build a lead and start sitting guys in the 2nd half. That said I’m not sure cuse can come back even if pitt does build a lead and takes starters out? Not like cuse qb can throw the ball, can’t see the run heavy approach working against pitt d!!

I’m on okie st ml also. Didn’t trust the offense enough to lay the bet up number but think the d good enough to win.

I was dying to bet some Clifford props in the psu/sparty game but the pussies didn’t put any out!! Not sure what you see in sparty here (since you didn’t tell us! Lol), they down their best 2 Wrs now and walker banged up! Psu looks like a terrible matchup to me cause they all bout the passing game which we know sparty can’t defend! So mad no Clifford props, I was licking my chops to hit those!! Lol. I’m not betting into the inflated number tho so hope I’m wrong.

Pretty much all I got to say, lol. I did lean minny+7 but wiscy been a impossible team for me and 2 guys I respect on wiscy so I just left alone. Gl this week!!
 
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