[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal, Segoe UI, Segoe WP, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif]Guys: Here's some thoughts I sent a friend of mine. We are going to dabble in betting this tourney...I don't know that much about football but I know how to read articles...[/FONT]
Feedback welcome...
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal, Segoe UI, Segoe WP, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif]Seems to me like the best plays to WIN are from this list:[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]ARG[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Chile[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Columbia[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Brazil[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Uruguay[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Ecuador[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Mexico[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Those are the only seven teams that could hoist the cup in my opinion, now let's look at the odds:[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]ARG +200, Brazil +450....not enough return on Argentina plus Messi is banged up....Brazil is kind of out of sorts and is low odds just cuz they are Brazil TOSS THEM BOTH[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Chile +850[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Columbia +800[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Uruguay +1150[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Mexico +1000[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Ecuador +3000[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]I would toss Uruguay because Suarez is out for the early rounds. Isn't he the biter? I can't bet on that guy.[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]So we have[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Chile +850[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Columbia +800[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Mexico +1000[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Ecuador +3000[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Chile won cup LY; Columbia has tons of talent; Mexico has won six in a row and has home field; Ecuador beat ARG and Uruguay in friendlies.[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]I like them all, but we probably need to toss one. I would suggest Chile because they play in Arg group and so likely will be second. That means they could face Mexico in the QF in Santa Clara, CA where it will be hostile...or they get Uruguay, then maybe Brazil in the semis...[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]So we could win bet[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Columbia 1/8[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Mexico 1/10[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Ecuador .5/15[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Other notes: [/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]The worst teams appear to be Haiti and Bolivia, they are bet against. I did read Haiti is tight on the backline though.[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Paraguay places defensive football, consider UNDER bets[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]C Rica has great goalie (Real Madrid guy), consider UNDER bets...could give USA problems.[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Bolivia has three inexperienced goalies, consider OVER bets vs ARG and Chile[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Venenzuela tried to get coach fired at Xmas; they lose first game vs. Jamaica on Sunday and they could be folding their tents and quitting.[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Jamaica is dangerous, they drew with Uruguay and beat Chile...[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]I know we talked about taking the lowest odds to draw in first round, but I really don't see much variation from the bookies other than Peru/Haiti which they obviously like Peru to win...I don't think that strategy makes that much sense although I do like it in the first round (especially in the first game) with two bottom tier teams playing one another. They get a point and keep their hopes alive...[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]I don't really like any of the group odds..[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]First round matches through Monday with what I like:[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Friday:[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]USA v Columbia...Has to be a play on Columbia PK -110...Columbia is much better than US, great value here on the PK[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Sat:[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Paraguay/CRica...Scouting says Paraguay plays defensive soccer and C Rica has a great goalie. Play the UND 2 -115; or maybe NO GOALS +600 if you want to get ballsy[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Ecuador/Brazil...Step out here and take a price on Ecuador +325 to WIN...Ec has beat ARG and URU...Brazil is missing a bunch of guys including Hulk and really not playing well....could be an early surprise [/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Peru/Haiti...only way to play this is Peru -1, -113 or just NO BET[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Sunday:[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Ven/Jamiaca...Seems like a good place for a DRAW +205...this is tied with Par/CR for lowest draw odds[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]URU/Mexico...Mexico has home field, won six in a row...like MEX PK -115[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Monday[/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Chile/ARG...Both attacking styles and tons of offense seems like a good place for an OVER 2.5 goals. [/FONT]
[FONT=wf_segoe-ui_normal]Bol/Panama...seems like another place for DRAW +215...tied with USA game for third lowest draw odds.[/FONT]