Conference Championships

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
The first game this weekend is Indy traveling to Baltimore. My feeling was this line should have been -3 so at the moment 4 does seem high. Now its well documented that Indy has now dropped 4 straight away . I would like to ask (outloud) other then the Jax game were they actually beaten in any of those games? Think about the losses Dallas , Tenny , Jax and Houston. The other part of the question is while it might have not been in impressive fashion they beat 4 extremely quality teams in the first four road games : NYG 26-21 , NYJ 31-28 , Den 34-31 , and NE 27-20. The worst game they played IMO was @ the Jets which IMO of the 4 games also had to be the worst team they played. You might think Denver but really look at that game more in the context of how they were playing at the time...Broncos had not unraveled yet.

They lost 21-14 in Dallas with technically the deciding factor being a Pick 6. However they also had 4 turnovers that day and played well against the run holding the RB's to 31c for 114 yds. Indy fumbled on its first 2 possessions and throw an INT inside the 5 yard line in the 2nd Q. The pick 6 early in teh 3rd Q tied up the game and gave Dallas the life it needed. After DAL score dthe go ahead TD the Colts drove the field and starting with 2nd and 3 on the DAL 9 managed a 1 yd run , followed by consecutive incompletions to end the drive where Dal proceeded to run out the clock. Seems like a fairly even game.

The loss @ Tenny seems similiar. The Colts have 450 yards of offense and 17 pts? Some weird occurrences like a 66 yd drive that starts at the 1 but Indy punts! Then naturally Tenny goes 95 yards for the go ahead TD 17-14. However Indy gets the ball back drives to the 1 with1st goal at the 1 go backwards and settle for 3 and atie game....Tenny gets the ball back and Bironas hits a 60 yarder!! to win the game...As far as the rush defense one has to understand Jax and tenny were top ofthe elite run games in the league. So with that Henry and White combined for 24c 128yds but 59 of those yds came on 2 carries and VY had 9c 78 yds.

The game @ Jax no excuse for..lets face it though Jags always get up for facing Indy these days. However 375 yds on the ground is GROSS! Especially when it takes only 37 carries and Garrard passes for 79 yards!! I think this game and even tenny best illustrates Indy fatal flaw as run defense....the propensity to allow big RUNS.. The jags had 9 runs of at least 11 yards in the 1st half....NINE! While the Jax defense doesnt have the flashy names like Baltimore I would have to say that as far as effectiveness they are both very equal on there home fields.

The Houston game was also weird. Indy fumbled on its 1st play of its 1 possession and had only 5 possesions after that! You think Houstons game plan wa CHEW CLOCK?? They again lost as time expired on a FG but the Offense had two 80 yds and a 70 yard TD drive. They had a 66yd drive for a FG and 1 punt....these guys never had the ball. After Indy tied the game @ 14 overcoming a 14-0 hole thanks to short fields, the texans got the ball with 8 to play before half went 14 plays and 75 yards for a score..In the 3rd Q after an Indt drive stalled with the Colts cutting it 21-17 , the Texans went on a 9 minute , 15 play 51 yd drive to push it back to 24-17. That started at 1 left in the thrid and finished at the 6 minute mark when Indygot the ball and marched down the field for the tie! A great kick return gave them the ball basically at there own 40 and a couple plays later 48yder to lose...


The key to these games is that most of them were divisonal games and the Colts were favored in them.

Please understand that my point is clearly the run defense is the weakest part of the Colts D but as I said last week its an exaggeration. Furthermore Jamal Lewis is not the guy at this time to exploit it. He oesnty have breakaway speed to scare you. There is also the fact Bob Sanders is playing. Also has anyone cared to look at the rushing offenses that Indy played against away? NYG Tiki / Jacobs , Den Bell boyz , NE Maroney & Dillon , and the last 4 I mentioned...the worst were NYJ and Houston. Now Dayne did have a career game but 32 c 153yds is very good but still less then 5 YPC the previous 3 games Dayne was a beats with 18 carries...he had 36c 189 yds in Oak and in NE...

With Balt I think they played some great ball the final 6 weeks. However I continue to find it odd that Balt can be considered the better team. Think of it like this Indy host KC lays 7 wins easy while Balt catches 3 in KC and wins a nice game. Personally I played BALT in KC thinking the game should have been a PK since in my book Balt was -3 on a neutral field versus KC. This week we saw how Indy would have been at least -4 on a neutral and worst case a PK in KC maybe slight fav...they both played Buff ...the Colts struggled to win after road wins in Den and NE could have been a flat spot where they were inflated. I thought they were so played Bills +12 thinking it should have been 9 or 10...well Balt just hosted Buff as 9.5...and while they covered I cant see how they played much better then Indy did when they hosted them..Losman had a pick 6 for a Raven TD and threw a pick fron them Balt 4...thats basically a 14 point swing in a 12 pt game...Both teams played Cincy..the Colts smoked them at home laying -3.5 where gain I had Indy cause I thought it should have been at least -4.5 but Balt was -3 and +3 in the bengal games both with 6 point outcomes....so to me again Cincy and ravens are equal on neutral fields where as Colts are slightily stronger then Balt....

Then I look at the Atl game all medicore teams and they are shutout the 1st half and get three late TDS but we are talking 17 and 37 yard drives. Thanks to consecutive 59 yd returns by BJ Sams!

Looking back starting at the Cincy game one thing becomes clear and that the Ravens OFFENSE has simply not improved. It continues to be the defense doing nearly all the work. Seriously think about they win 26-20 vs Cincy when Cincy fumbles the opening kickoff and gives Balt the ball at the Cincy 34 they punch it and then Palmer throws a Pick 6. So 1 offensive play and they are down 14-0 and this was when Cincy was in shambles. The beat ATL 24-10 but as I mentioned 2 short fields thanks to BJ Sams. They win 27-0 scoring drives of 56 , 47 and a fumble for a TD and FG drive of 5 yds (also one for 50). Again it was defense and BJ Sams...so a big issue is how Indy can neutralize Sams more then Jamal Lewis. In KC FG miss , fumble inside the balt 35 and Int inside the 25
put KC down only 6-0 at half even with all the miscues. We could go and on but how bout the games they played @ Den....Ravens were a bigger dog and couldnt score where Indy marched all over them....

At the end of the day I believe that Balt is extremely OVERRATED. This line should actually be -2 or -2.5. If Balt was so good why home dog to SD?? I love the Ravens defense but this game seems simple to me. Its all about Indy miscues. In all of the Colts losses they were sloppy on offense and that is what feeds balt defense...poor execution. Indy while it must contain the ground game more importantly must contain BJ Sams. Every week it seems balt needs alot of help vs medicore teams & defenses to get to that 23,24 pt mark. I for one think Indys defense is better then advertised. The one offense that is strong that Balt played was down in NO and it had no problem moving the ball it just was turnover happy that day... they got SD early when they still played marty ball...they played @ Cincy and while the points werent there they still allowed four drives of at least 60 yards....

After thinking about this I think we see another real low scoring effort. With Indy not cracking 21 points and since I think they win SU maybe 21-17. This Indy D IMO is getting a bad rap and no one seems to notice how much the Ravens have struggled to move the ball all season. The Colts must keep Sams in check and not have silly fumbles or bad INTS.


<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>Indianapolis Colts Players vs. Baltimore Ravens (Gamelogs)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#666666><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=tablehdr><TD vAlign=center noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc colSpan=4></TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc colSpan=6>PASSING

</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc colSpan=4>RUSHING

</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc colSpan=4>RECEIVING

</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc>

</TD></TR><TR class=tableclmhdr><TD vAlign=center noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Player</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Date</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Team</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Result</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Cmp</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Att</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>%</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Yd</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>TD</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>INT</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Att</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Yd</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Avg</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>TD</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Rec</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Yd</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Avg</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>TD</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>FFPts</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#ffffff>QB P. Manning</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Sep 11 05</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>IND(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>W 24-7</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>21</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>36</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>58.3%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>254</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>3</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>-2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>-0.67</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>20.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#ffffff>QB P. Manning</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Dec 18 04</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>IND(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>W 20-10</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>20</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>33</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>60.6%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>249</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>-2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>-1.00</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>16.3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#ffffff>QB P. Manning</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Oct 13 02</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>IND(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>W 22-20</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>30</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>40</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>75.0%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>284</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>17</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>8.50</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>19.9</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#ffffff>QB P. Manning</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Dec 2 01</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>IND(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>L 27-39</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>27</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>48</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>56.3%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>310</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>9</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>9.00</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>24.4</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#ffffff>WR M. Harrison</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Sep 11 05</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>IND(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>W 24-7</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>6</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>69</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>11.50</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>12.9</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#ffffff>WR M. Harrison</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Dec 18 04</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>IND(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>W 20-10</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>5</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>73</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>14.60</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>13.3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#ffffff>WR M. Harrison</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Oct 13 02</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>IND(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>W 22-20</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>12</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>150</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>12.50</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>15.0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#ffffff>WR M. Harrison</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Dec 2 01</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>IND(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>L 27-39</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>5</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>89</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>17.80</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>14.9</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>WR R. Wayne</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Sep 11 05</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>IND(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>W 24-7</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>4</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>50</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>12.50</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>5.0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>WR R. Wayne</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Dec 18 04</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>IND(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>W 20-10</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>8</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>88</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>11.00</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>8.8</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>WR R. Wayne</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Oct 13 02</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>IND(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>W 22-20</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>4</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>44</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>11.00</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>4.4</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>WR R. Wayne</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Dec 2 01</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>IND(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>L 27-39</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>3</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>11</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>3.67</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1.1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=left>Baltimore Ravens Players vs. Indianapolis Colts (Gamelogs)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#666666><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=tablehdr><TD vAlign=center noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc colSpan=4> </TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc colSpan=6>PASSING
</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc colSpan=4>RUSHING
</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc colSpan=4>RECEIVING
</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#6699cc>
</TD></TR><TR class=tableclmhdr><TD vAlign=center noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Player</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Date</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Team</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Result</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Cmp</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Att</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>%</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Yd</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>TD</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>INT</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Att</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Yd</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Avg</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>TD</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Rec</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Yd</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>Avg</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>TD</TD><TD noWrap align=middle bgColor=#e0e0e0>FFPts</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>QB S. McNair</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Dec 4 05</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>TEN(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>L 3-35</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>22</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>33</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>66.7%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>220</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>3</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1.50</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>11.3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>QB S. McNair</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Oct 2 05</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>TEN(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>L 10-31</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>28</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>37</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>75.7%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>220</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>4</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>40</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>10.00</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>19.0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>QB S. McNair</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Sep 19 04</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>TEN(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>L 17-31</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>25</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>39</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>64.1%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>273</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1.00</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>19.9</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>QB S. McNair</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Dec 7 03</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>TEN(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>L 27-29</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>22</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>38</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>57.9%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>235</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>2</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>3</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>20</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>6.67</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>27.8</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>QB S. McNair</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Sep 14 03</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>TEN(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>L 7-33</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>15</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>24</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>62.5%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>138</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>10.9</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>QB S. McNair</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Dec 8 02</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>TEN(h)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>W 27-17</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>19</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>23</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>82.6%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>237</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>5</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>49</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>9.80</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>20.8</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sort1 align=left bgColor=#f7f7f7>QB S. McNair</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>Nov 3 02</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>TEN(a)</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>W 23-15</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>14</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>19</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>73.7%</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>82</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>1</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>6</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>13</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>2.17</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>0</TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>- </TD><TD class=sort1 align=middle bgColor=#f7f7f7>9.4</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



In conclusion as I said the game will be battle and I now lead UNDER but think the play is INDY +4 and ML at the moment......
 
These are Rick Gosselin's comments taken from the Dallas News:

Why Indianapolis can upset Baltimore
The Ravens finished with a better record (13-3) than Indianapolis (12-4) and have the home field. But two of Indy's losses came on long field goals as time expired. Rob Bironas kicked a 60-yarder to deliver Tennessee the upset and Kris Brown booted a 48-yarder to lift Houston.
If Bironas misses from 60, the Colts would be the home team against the Ravens on Saturday based on their better record against common opponents (Colts 3-1, Ravens 3-2). And Indianapolis would be the favorite in this game, not Baltimore.
If both Bironas and Brown had missed, the Colts would have finished 14-2 and been the top seed in the AFC based on a better conference record (11-1) than the Chargers (10-2).
But going on the road doesn't bother Indianapolis – at least not against a good team like the Ravens. The Colts beat the Patriots, Broncos, Giants and Jets on the road this season. It's the Houstons and Tennessees that the Colts need to worry about away from home.


• The Baltimore Ravens also might be better off on the road this postseason than at home. Quarterback Steve McNair threw 16 touchdown passes this season – but 12 of them came on the road. McNair has only one TD pass in his last five home games
 
nice writeup, SN. We seem to agree on the total going under, and it has not stopped moving up since the line was released (currently at 41.5/-105).

I'm holding off trying to see when it is going to top out because i would love to get U42 at a decent price. Do you have any thoughts about the line movement for the rest of the week?
 
I think the sentiment or bias is to the over . So I do agree better to wait it out we should see 42 or better here. I dont expect a decline with the perception of Indy poor run defense and ravens offense better then it really is...

Cant to wait get the other 3 discussions going...BOL bro
 
At the end of the day I believe that Balt is extremely OVERRATED. This line should actually be -2 or -2.5. If Balt was so good why home dog to SD?? I love the Ravens defense but this game seems simple to me.
Click to expand...

McNair had no feel or rhythm for the offense then, Ravens are actually my pick to win it all and I will probably play them in an accumulator even though I think the Pats upset Marty's club.

Manning will be forced into mistakes as I'm sure Baltimore will take their chances in going all out in trying to apply pressure on peyton, i actually don't think this one will be close and was looking to play action points on the ravens :new_shocked:
 
I think what you need to ask yourself if you like Balt is how do you feel about their pass coverage?

Baltimore is such a reactive aggressive style defense that I think Manning goes on the short cut routes and dumps to Addai and will eat at you for 4-5 yards at a time and I think the aggressiveness of Baltimore will allow Manning to stretch the field. Panthers did it and Manning has more weapons to work with than Delhomme did.
 
I also wanted to bring up one other point.

Ravens & Chargers- Comparing these teams this year and last year, what has improved?

McNair & Rivers

Last year neither of these teams made the playoffs. You have a potentially good QB in Rivers, but lacks playoff experience. McNair has experience, but I don't tihnk he is gonna lead you to a ring.

I also think it is scheduling that has been a factor to make these teams look better than what they are. Smoke and mirrors if you will.

Last year SD had to play NE & Indy in the reg season...now they beat both and split with KC, but the schedule was much tougher and the way I see them is they are gonna have to go through Indy & NE, the 2 toughest teams in the AFC.

As for Baltimore, the QB change really helped them, because you were going no where fast with Boller, McNair is a game manager, he isn' the guy you want under center down 7 with 1:25 in the 4th. Ravens solely rely on their defense and I don't tihnk that type of playcalling is going to get you a ring either. I just think the assumption that Balt & SD are the 2 best teams is all smoke and mirrors due to lighter scheduling. SD has suffered losses @ KC & @Balt...also, when has the SD secondary been tested this year?

I knwo I am rambling..so many points...I gotta re think the rest, but I am not sold on either of these teams in a 1 year turnaround....Belichick needs to stack the box and make Rivers beat you...I think if Brady doesn't exploit the SD secondary, Manning will.....

lets keep it going guys...:shake:
 
Austin - In regards to how to attack the Balt defense. You made a good point cause they key is Indy willing to take what is given to them. I think if you watched Indy and I believe it was said in the KC game was how Manning was so willing to make the underneath throw(thank Dallas Clark ) and spread the ball out to different options . I believe they mentioned how he wasnt even attempting to go downfield. I think in recent weeks Indy has been more then satisfied with slow , time consuming drives. Which they took little chunks and keep there defense on the sidelines. Now are they setting up Balt by showing them a month of game film with this?

They have had numerous 10 + play drives recently as well as 5+ minute drives. In the Dolphin game they had an 18 play ,10minute drive. To me that clearly signals this offense is willing to take what it can get.

The competition that Balt played also must enter into the equation. I would not knock the Ravens defense but the top 4 passing offenses are Cincy (twice) , Car , and New Orleans. They played Cincy really when they werent going all that well and behind an injured OL. They havent faced many challenges this year. Brees played well outside of the picks and INTs have been his own knock this season.

Manning seems to be in a groove last month and played well KC in spite of some miscommunication. Look at his recent QB ratings 136 ,135 ,101 and 71 vs KC because of the 3 picks but 30 of 38!! He has faced more then his share of good defenses this season but his production does drop off on the road 13Td and 7 Int. Look at Denver and NE: @Mile High 32 /39 345 3TDs and @ Foxboro 20/36 326yds 2Td INt...129 and 93 QB ratings.

Back to Balt Losman had 237 vs them and Evans a late 52 Yard reception . Derek Anderson 232 yds the prior game and Delhomme had 365 earlier. Who else was a threat Big Ben on the road ..., Vick , they just werent challenged but its certainly interesting Losman and Anderson had some success throwing the ball in the final 2 home games. Losman had a streak of 13 of 17 in that game during the 2nd and 3rd Q's.

So basically the point is a multi dimensonal attack could give Balt trouble on defense. Lets face they are an agressive and arrogant defense who can be beat deep if they are going to cheat.

Also really what has changed for the Indy offense and the Balt defense now as compared to the prior 4 meetings? I dont see much . Baltimore defense couldnt stop then 9/11/2005 why now? Manning has 2 career Ints in the 4 meetings...Why believe he will be forced into mistakes here?

With Balt no one is denying they are a good team but there scheduling played a huge role. They would not be 12-4 playing the Colts schedule and certainly not 13-3. So I think McNair gives them someone they can be confident in and who wont make costly turnovers. Did anyone notice that Boller stepped in nicely for AirMcNair vs Cle? What was Boller flaw that day...INT's! Does anyone realize at home McNair has 4 TDs and 5 Ints! They basically won 3 games early they should have lost @ Cle , Sd , @ Tenny.

With SD I think last year was somewhat a disappointment but again scheduling for sure made a difference. Marty opened up the offense and the team took off. I think they are better then Balt. With them though WR is just such a question mark.

BOL
 
xpression syst_m said:
McNair had no feel or rhythm for the offense then, Ravens are actually my pick to win it all and I will probably play them in an accumulator even though I think the Pats upset Marty's club.

Manning will be forced into mistakes as I'm sure Baltimore will take their chances in going all out in trying to apply pressure on peyton, i actually don't think this one will be close and was looking to play action points on the ravens :new_shocked:
Click to expand...

See I dont believe that arguement though on McNair. Yeah he looked good coming back versus Cleveland but the other four teams TB , Oak , Denver , and SD were all good defenses. I think that had more to do with it then anything. Naturally there is some truth in that statement that a QB on new team was feeling his way out. The fact is that had nothing to do with them being a home dog though. It was more an overreaction to the Browns game. With McNair he has played better as the season progressed and Clayton made strides . A great indicator of his play IMO is the fact in 4 games he threw for 2 or more TDS in three of those he also had at least 2 INT's.

Now my counter to your point is why will the now succeed in pressuring Peyton into mistakes when they havent in the prior 4 meetings. The meetings are old and spread out but I dont think Ravens defense is all that much different. Bart Scott has improved but Ray Lewis probably has dropped off some. Trevor Price was a nice addition. I dont doubt Balt can smoke Indy I just dont see what makes me believe there is value in that line Or that they will smoke Indy...

I am always cautious of playing public teams who have been dogged. it just seems to me Indy is being written off to easily. Most of us think the pats will upset SD but Indy is now better then NE. With that said balt went 9-1 down the stretch beating 2 playoff teams. they went into NO after the BYE at there in season low point and played well . Then they went into Arrowhead and beat KC or watched KC beat themselves. Regardless they beat and played alot of talented teams who underperformed in Atl , Cincy and Pitt twice...

Indy played @ Denver and @ NE and won catching 3 or less while Balt was never better then 3 or 3.5 favs against teams like Atl , Cincy and Pitt. Which Indy was -10 at home to Pitt in the playoffs and something like -8 last year inseason and hosted Cincy as -3.5....

I think its a msconception that Balt defense will impose its will on Indy....it seems everyone has given up on Indy.....Definetly would like to here your thought son this game throughout the week.
 
Good Work Sportsnut

Nice to know you are on the Colts, as I am too. Plan to play 3 units on Colts + the points and Colts ML. I think one of the keys in this game is the Ravens LB corps in pass coverage. Does anyone know how good the LB corps is in pass coverage, also if they faced a game plan that included a lot of throws that forced LB pass coverage? I am sure Peyton Manning will be able to find seams in this defense, and I don't think they can confuse him.

Looking at the laying the points with the Bears, that Seahawks team sucks, and I see Lovie Smith allowing Grossman to challenge that banged up secondary.
 
Oh, good grief. We're going to be against each other--again, SN?

Why, why?

I know there's a lot of love for Indy going around, but a few things on this game from me (I wrote up more at Covers so I'm just going to sum up).

First, as you mention, on the road this year, Indy is a .500 team. There's no way around that. I mean, I can complain about bad beats with the Eagles on the road this year, but the truth is, as the old saying goes, you are what your record is. And the Colts are a .500 team on the road. Not only that, they've lost their last four road games. And the one before that, Denver ran for like 200 yards in the second half alone.

They've been consistently out-coached and out-played on the road--and this is coming from someone who had them last week, so it's not like I hate this team. Hell, I bet them going in to Jacksonvile which, as it turned out, was my dumbest wager of the year.

So beyond the fact that they're just average on the road, and that they're not playing well on the road recently, there's the Baltimore scoring issue.

Since Fassel got thrown out the door, the Ravens are basically scoring 20 points a game. If it didn't change on the road at Pittsburgh, I don't see why that should change here. So what I think ends up happening is this, you're asking an indoor team, a team that's .500 on the road, whose lost their last four on the road, to go back on the road, and outscore a team with a very good defense.

If this line were +7 then that would make sense to me. As it is, not so much.

Oh, and then there's this, this is the first playoff game the Colts have ever played in Baltimore since they were the Colts. You can say that's a long time, but as a Browns fan I can tell you that I haven't forgotten what Art Modell tried to do to Cleveland, and if Baltimore ever comes to Cleveland for a playoff game let me just say this, losing would not be acceptable. Period. You can bet your *ss that Baltimore fans haven't forgotten how that team snuck out of there in the dead of night and that atmostphere will be brutal.

Last, on the line, the line did open at -3, but it was pounded through the roof immediately. I'm not sure if you saw the way the Chicago/Seattle line moved after it was opened, but the same thing happened here. It stayed at -3 for about two minutes, at 3.5 for about a minute and a half, and finally topped out around 4.5. It moved very fast and very hard in favor of Baltimore.

So I don't look at this line and wonder why it's at a four. And really, this may be that other discussion we get into, but I think 4's a very smart number. I don't think I would have opened it at a 3. I would have opened at a 3.5 or a straight 4. Four's great because you're getting a so-called defensive team vs. what is supposed to be a great offense (despite Peyton's road playoff history). So as a bettor there's that seed of doubt that say, 'I am getting more than a FG.'

I think we might actually see this number come back down to 3.5, at which point I'd buy it down to -3. Well, to be fair, I got it to three when it opened, but if it gets back there I might take a little more.
 
Hey, its okay to disagree thats what makes the world go round.

I will probably not back Indy if they are a so-called Public dog. Which doesnt mean I wont play them at 3.5 its just very unlikely I will.

I think you are so wrong in your perception of alot love for Indy. Its all Baltimore love. What sports show is picking Indy to win this game? The way I see its Ravens everywhere you turn...Biggest non factor ever is Indy returning to Balt....this team went to Foxboro and won so why would something that happened before they were born in most cases be a factor...not a huge issue in my eyes...Peytons playoff record...yeah its 1-4 away but the other angle missed out on is.....everyone expected peyton to win those...sorry but I dont see many giving him a chance to here..not even the linesmakers....

There are many ways around a teams stats or records. In fact since I have no ties to Las Vegas but found it interesting that the Covers articles about so called sharp bettors stated that its better to focus on boxscores then outcomes. It wasnt interesting it just was reiterating what I have been saying all along. Stats , final scores , and anything of that nature are very insignificant IMO when capping a game. You must read bewteen the lines and do much more. So Indy was 4-4 away name a team who played that road schedule or name one even close. No one played that many quality teams on the road. The factor you seem to overlook is that they were favored in just about everyone of them. Which means no room for error. Is losing by 3 points particularily unimpressive? only when your name is the Colts it is. The fact Balt barely won in Tenn and Cleveland somehow makes them a better road team? I think I hit 7of the final 8 Colts games and I definetly loaded up on Jax. Simply cause if a team is struggling where is the value in betting them when they must win to cover. The simplest approach that is often overlooked. Not to mention Jax imposed its will in Indy so logically they would at home as well. Your to wrapped up in 4-4 and also forgot to lose two of those games they saw a 48 and 60yder FG to end it. can you say FLUKE? yet your asking those outcomes to be factored into the lines. I said prior to I believe the Cincy game go check Indys record in primetime games...the last ATS loss was hosting Minny on MNF two years ago(about 10 wins since)...In my eyes they play there best when it counts the most....for all the trouble Indy had in Foxboro go check what those lines were...The Cowboys played there Super Bowl against Indy. Dallas would not lose if they put that effort forward every week. So they had one bad loss to Jax who every year makes the Colts games there Super Bowl...remember the hoopla surrounding the prior years meeting...the problem that you have when backing Indy is there is hardy room for error. They hardly ever have soft lines except when there opponent is given to much credit like Cincy or like KC.

You can complain about the Eagles bad beats cause your missing the point is they werent BEATEN. They simply failed to put the opposing team away Or took the opponent lightily. This happens to any elite athlete or team . You look at your opponent and there is no way you treat the texans like you treat the Pats....hence the Letdown or Trap theories. As an athlete there is a HUGE difference bewteen being beaten and losing. Shit happens sometimes but it dosnt mean the other team was better that day cause the scoreboard favored them. Thats the biggest flaw in the avg gamblers approach...BTW is Denver historically not one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL? So they didnt have Sanders probably didnt have MacFarland either oh and they won despite allowing 200 yards. I wont say Indy deserved to win that day but who cares what Denver ran for Baltimore isnt Denver, is it?

Why did you have them last week? Cause the line was soft as I did or simply cause you felt it was 8-0 Indy at home? Only wondering aloud...

I find it funny that you say they were outcoached when they have had depth issues all season and later injury problems. Funny outside if Dallas they won every big game home or away ...coincidence...nope.. How many coaches can say they won twice in the Meadowlands , Mile High and Foxboro in its first 4 road games? Once they lost in Dallas the losses after that were al games that meant so mcuh more to the oppenent regardless of what it did for Indy seeding.

You keep harping on the Fassel change and its real hocus -pocus as far as I am concerned. All that really happened after Billick took over was the defense played better. They score thanks to field position probably about 75% of the time. They dont score 20 pts on offense they score 20+ points due to great field position caused by there defense and even BJ Sams. Thats the area I would see key to Indy winning. Not letting Sams beat you and not being forced into mistakes. If Peyton has not made mistakes in his previous 4 against Balt , then why now? See your not asking why balt scoring increased and only looking at blank numbers saying more points and I say mirage...There was some minimal improvement in the execution of the Ravens offense but how do you get around McNair at home 4Tds and 5 Ints if you want to talk stats....

Basically right now with Indy nothaving expectations they being undervalued here. Sorry but no way in hell has Balt proven to be a better team on a neutral field. No way has baltimore shown RCA Dome home field edge when it struggled with Buffalo and Cleveland....even Atlanta...

Ask yourself really whats the worst you can see Indy doing on offense? To me worst case is 14 or 17 pts. I find it hard to believe they can do worse then that......are you all that sure that Balt 100 & gets 20 or 21 pts...

See gams like this when the lines IMO are off are the greatest chance to see weird outcome......a small fav who wins SU but doesnt cover.....If balt does win I think its high likely it follows the scenario that has done in Indy a few times and helped Balt a few times a late FG or TD...that puts them up two pts....

right now the biggest misconception is the world likes Indy here.....at worst its 50/50 IMO....

We have much to talk about.....

Ask yourself this if Sams is neutralized and Peyton is well Peyton Manning one of the NFL's elite QB's with a quick release who even Balt admits it will have trouble sacking then what is Balt gameplan on offense?

Please dont misinterpt that I think Indy is such a great bet and this line is so off......I am definetly not saying that. I think due to Indy 's road woes there is a premium in this spread...against an inferior team.....

I am tired already...
 
I can understand why you're tired, you're all over the place. But you caught the Sams thing, so at least I know you're brain's not totally fried.

=)

OK, let's try to streamline this thing a little bit.

I'm weighting the first, say, half of the season for both of these teams equally. So it's nice that Peyton went into the Meadowlands in the first week of the season and won, but if I was weighting that part of the schedule heavily I'd weight the Ravens' first game of the season where they went into the home of a playoff team last year, against a Cover 2 defense, and kicked the piss out of Tampa Bay.

But I'm not. I'm trying to guage where these teams are right now, and what I'm seeing right now is that in all but one of the Ravens' big games down the stretch, they played great. Their one poor outing was in Cincy in that Thursday night game in the rain. They got beat by a desperate team in a very hostile enviornment. Of course, that came the week after they basically wrapped up the division with a huge win over Pittsburgh at home, but I'm not making an excuse. Still, that isn't the situation here. If Baltimore were going to Indy it would be a far different game.

Point is, Baltimore has played dominant football with one lone exception for a month. Conversely, Indy has not. Indy has played very average football away from home for a month and that's where they are this week, on the road.

Why did I have Indy last week, a few reasons. Not in order of importance:

1. KC didn't deserve to be in the playoffs.
2. KC was coming off a huge emotional win (1st home game after Lamar Hunt passed away).
3. KC, in my opinion, played better under Huard, the blocked for him better.
4. Trent Green, to me, hasn't looked right since he's been back and I don't think he should have come back this season.
5. Indy's last playoff game was the Pittsburgh game. Losing this game was unacceptable and I honestly think it would have gotten Dungy fired.
6. KC had given up 30 points the week before, at home, to Jax. No reason Indy couldn't do the same at home.

I didn't like laying more than a TD, but I really liked the Colts, they just matched up well and I had more on the ML anyway.

Here, none of those points hold for Indy.

I understand what you're saying about fluke losses, but one, it's still a loss, and two, Indy shouldn't be in a position to have fluke losses like the one in Tennessee for two reasons.

The first is because they're a flat-out better team, the second is, they're in the division. There are probably about six to eight really big games on your schedule every year. Four of those are divisional games, you have to take your division seriously. The other two divisional games, if you're good, are 'should-win' games at home, in this case Houston and Tennessee at home. The others are games like @NE, @Dallas, etc.

You talk about looking beyond the box score and I agree with you, and the fact is, in Houston, Indy just got beat. They were down 7-0 immediately, down 14-0 not long after that and they were lucky to even have a shot to come back. (As an aside, they should have lost to the Jets in NY, though I'm glad they didn't, I had them teased in that game.)

So, again, I look back at their last four road games and what I see is a team that was beaten, badly, in at least two of them, with the only one of the four that they probably should have won, a game where they fell apart and, yes, were outcoached.

Tony Dungy blowing his final timeout to basically ice the punter let Tennessee line up for that 60 yarder with nothing to lose. That was a coaching mistake. Not keeping your foot on the gas when you've got a 14 point lead on the road vs. a team you're more talented than, is a coaching mistake.

And really, the more you look at it, Indy is sort of the mirror image of Baltimore. Baltimore had one really bad game in their last five regular season games, at Cincy. Indy's had one really good game in their last five, vs. Cincy.

Maybe that's something that can give Indy folks hope, but I'm not seeing it.

I wanted to see a more impressive Indy team last week than I did. Early on they should have been up 21-7 at the very least, and yet they could only manage FGs. I would have liked to have seen them play better on the road in Houston, a place they should know they have trouble playing, I would have liked to have seen them play better aganst poor teams when they were looking to have a shot at home field or at least a bye, but I didn't.

Not to mention that on the road in the playoffs over the last few years this team has been underwhelming on the road--and in this round.

As I said, I just think that if you want to beat Baltimore now you need to score more than 20 points. I just don't see Indy being able to do that in Baltimore. More over, they've given me no reason to think they'll be able to stop Baltimore from putting up 20 themselves.

For the record, though, I can absolutely see why that +4 is tempting and I don't like laying -4, I haven't here and I won't.

But ask yourself this, if you got -3 would you lay it, furthermore, if this game was a PK who would you take? (I know it's not, I'm asking, as an exercise, if it were the case . . .)
 
Okay so now we must talk about the Joe Public Special:

Philly @ NO

To me things should be equal. SO why is Philly playing on short rest? Why didnt the NFL put them on Sunday? Seems real shitty of the NFL to do so....the good thing is Philly went 3-0 on Sundays after MNF..

Looking up and down at this game. First thing I recall is backing NO the 1st meeting. Wasnt quite sure Philly should have been favored thought PK -1.5 Eags was FAIR. The thing that strikes me about NO is that perform poorly as FAVS despite there improved play towards the end of the season. NO will have Hollis Thomas while Philly will miss Lito Sheppard. They failed to cover vs TB , they lost SU as favs to Wash , Cincy and Balt at home covering only versus SF as chalk. So what makes us think NO is the play and what makes me think this line is fair? Naturally I understand its a game....Saints -3 all the money flows towards NO but -7 all goes to Philly....thats a given so they chose -5....heres the SportsNut TWIST if -5 is still a bit much or inflated and you have more money on NO at the end of the day/week then effectively as a linesmakers you have done your job. Why? cause you presented them with a decision and they still chose a bad number to play there money on....which is sort of my arguement with balt/Indy...if you get that 50/50 split @ +4 you have done your job . Realistically you should have all the money on Indy. My getting it balanced you have again accomplished your misson. You ever wonder why everytime a line seems so high and the masses play the DOG they lose....cause they saw value where there wasnt.....its about knowing what the line should be w/o perception involved....

Bottomline is I think these teams are very equal...so equal they only thing seperating them is home field. So while my brain tells me to like NO the numbers tell me that above 3 the Eagles have value even w/o Sheppard.

I think what seperates these teams of late is consistency. The Saints came home after a big win with a fat line and lost SU to Wash.....where as Philly has reeled off 6 straight now. Philly isnt pretty doing it but it never seems to beat itself. If I am correct Sheppard missed the first four games when Philly went 3-1. The loss to NYG was more about complacency then anything..... Commonsense allows you to know that there nickel packages will suffer but its one thing they must overcome.

One thing that should be noted is that the game in NO followed the TO game...so you hate to say it but emotional letdown or flat performance..??

Another thing that strikes me about NO is they beat all so called broken teams...think about they won in Dallas, ATL, and NYG... You almost have to wonder looking at Brees final 2 games if he didnt peak in Dallas? The kid was 13 of 32 in NY.....they do have 5 weapons on offense though.

The Eagles have been there before and that should give them a decided edge over the Saints and its young staff. Stallworth is itching to get some payback and I have to wonder can NO beat them twice in thd same season?? Philly 4-1 ATS as a dog....

The key for Philly on defense is again holding the running game in check and also slowing Brees who hasnt played all that well last 1/4 of the season. The Sainst have 3 quality wins this season...FG at home over Philly and the late season wins in NYG and Dallas..the rest outside of maybe the 1st ATL win is garbage IMO.....


What makes this game especially tough is the inconsistencies of both. Injuries played a large role in Phillys up and downs but what was NO reason......No yet ready for Prime Time players??

It seems both teams have been great defying the odds as Underdogs. Difference here is only ONE team is the Dog.....

Was NO recent defensive efforts simply the result of playing offenses who couldnt get out of there own way? Seems that way....I would think Philly is the better Defense and facing the QB most likely to be forced into mistakes....after all the Saints are 4-4 at home winning only vs SF past 5 @ home..

Thanks to public perception I feel that New Orleans is being overvalued here. The key is how does the extra rest help them. Philly has alot of momentum where NO didnt exactly play week 17 , had a week off and now is untested...remember how they came out vs Balt after the BYE..

As of today I am not all about anything like I was Dallas last week...name the dollar amount I owuld have wagered it on Dallas last week...simply cause I was 1000% sure that +3 was a minimum of 3 points off...highest that game should have been is PKem.

Here I like both road dogs...I have concerns but generally I feel the better team is the DOG and due to perception they are slightily inflated....Right now I like Ravens Under cause I expect a dink and dunk gameplan for both...with Sheppard out I think we see a little extra offensive in this.....seem slikely both teams crack 24...and dont be shocked to see this end on a FG...so lean over....cause I think both defenses are smoke and mirrors...

Let me know JP...you are probably suprised..
 
Joe Public said:
Ugh, that's not streamlined at all. That's just wordy, wordy, wordy.
Click to expand...

I am so beat....I am not gonna read your response yet.....gonna save it for the morning so I dont mix any words or say anything stupid...its gonna be a suprise...feel like I am going to wakeup knowing I have a present waiting for me....

I need to treat your responses cautiously.....cause they make sense!

In all seriousness though I will wait till read your reply and let you divulge NO vs Philly... and then we can clash tmrw...

At times when I am shifting sports I do forget the most obvious factors like Sams missing the past month...
 
damn Nut... looks like I actually disagree with alot of your points on Indy this week... too many to get into in fact, but we'll probably split being right with half those points, so I won't go into them as I don't think you want a book here.. oh shit.. I'm already writing one... better get to some points quick.. lol...

I already threw out all my main points in promotions here, but to add a little, here are some other things I am looking at...

If you look at the top 10 ranked passing teams statistically by yards per game this past season, this is how it panned out...

New Orleans
Indy
Philly
St Louis
Dallas
Cincy
Detroit
Green Bay
Pittsburgh
Arizona

from that list, Baltimore faced:

New Orleans #1

Cincy #6 - twice

Pit #9 - twice


against all those teams they allowed an average of 12 pts per game and scored an average of 25 pts per game and they all had better defenses than Indy...

here's the thing...

take New Orleans for example since they had a better passing rank than Indy and the better defense...

against Brees, Baltimore allowed him to pass 45 times for 383 yards and 3 tds...

but... they also had 3 ints.... and even with all those stats, they only allowed 22 points

McNair only passed for 159 yards and Jamal only ran for a bit over 3 yards per carry, but they still controlled things by giving him 31 carries... expect the same here...

sure the defense ran two tds back that game and helped them win 35-22, but those opportunities come about when a team passes too much against them... even without those two run backs and with the below average stats of Lewis and McNair, they still had 21 points on the board...

if you want to throw field positioning in there as part of the reason they score, well just remember that field positioning happens because of how their defense plays and the opportunities they cause...

looking at the other top 10 passing ranked teams they played...

against Cincy the first time, Palmer had 26 passes and 1 td.. but again... two ints... and of course another run back from the defense... not to mention 24 carries from Jamal and another victory...

the second time @ Cincy, Palmer had 32 tosses and 1 td.. but this time 0 ints and no run backs... the problems here was Jamal only had 17 carries with a nice 61 yards.. they should have kept feeding him the ball.. Nevertheless.. Cincy defense held up and a 7-13 loss resulted..

against #9 ranked passing Pittsburgh, Big Ben passed 41 times... needless to say that resulted in 0 tds and 2 ints... oh yea.. and another defensive run back... so even with Jamals' 17 carries, a 27-0 victory said it all..

the second time around @ PIT.. Big Ben didn't learn... 31 passes and 1 td.. but another 2 ints... Jamal had 24 carries in this one and 31-7 it ended..

so basically...

If Baltimore can feed Jamal enough carries keeping the ball from Peyton... there is no way Indys' defense can hold... they are nowhere near Pitts' defense... or hell.. even NOs' defense... If Baltimore can muster up big points in all these games except one, then I don't see this game going any other way really...

I mean.. everything is going to lay on Peytons' shoulders.. if he gets hot, that will be their only chance to stay in this one...

Baltimore was #1 in sacks and Indy was #1 at stopping them, so pass protection will be crucial, but you can already throw addai and the running game for Indy out the door.. It's like Indy is already starting with a disadvantage.
 
PItt's defense was mediocre this year and NO defensive problems are hidden by their offense, same goes for SD.

I don't see how this Ravens squad plans on scoring many offensive points...and if you counting on Manning to turn the ball over 3 times again I think your asking a bit much.
 
hey Austin.. hows it going bud??..

I personally am not expecting Manning to turn the ball over 3 times... I am expecting Baltimore to run on this defense as much as possible and control the tempo of this game...

by the same token... if you are counting on Manning to put up 30 points against this Ravens defense.. I think you are asking a bit much yourself.
 
im not counting on 30, but it won't suprise me if it happens...
 
Yo whats up Blitz. First my apologies..I owe you an email . Things have been hectic and tmrw never comes...

See heres my thing I simply dont look at stats & rankings. I take each game as indivual event and apply the context in which I feel it was played under.

Take the Steelers for example they are not great pass offense. They simply were a poor road team who never ran the ball on the road. Which leads to more passing plays for them. Factor that it in with them trailing often and you can see why they grade out high as so called passing offense.

See stats and rankings dont touch my fancy for the simple reason there is very little consistency. Like the saying goes the only constant is change. Take Cincy for example yo have things like Palmers injury , the entire OL missing time with injuries and some injuries to WRs. So you cant look at every Cincy game and grade them the same. They had a real small window towards the end of the year when it started to look like the Bengals offense actually starting after the loss in Balt. Do you remember TJ 's rants about how they were better then Baltimore?? I know Cincy didnt walk away from Indy feeling they were better. Point is the SD game at home is the 1st where the offense really clicked. So the late Nov matchup tells more about Balt defense vs a sound pass attack the problem lies in that it was an away game. In that rematch some will say will Balt was less motivated...possibly. The fact remains though that in 3 of the first 5 possession the Benglas drove bewteen 60 and 77 yards. If you watched that game you would see Housh and CJ getting open rather easily...TJ 10c 106yds and CJ 8c 91 yds.... with the TD that made it 13-0 early 3rd Q the Bengasl went into cruise control. At that point it also could have been 21-0 had the offense better executed the earlier possessions inside Balt's 10..

Now lets review the cincy game in cincy:
1st possession: 1 of 3 16yds
2nd : 1 of 2 9yds
3rd : 7 of 9 77 yds (holding call on 1st goal at the 6th put them back)
4th: 6 of 8 58 yds
5th: 2 of 3 60 yds

The last possession they went up 13-0 and put it on crusie control cause Balt offense was playing so poorly and this was when Cincy D was playing well...off the Browns shutout...

17 of 25 220 yds for Palmer..10 completions of 10+ yds and four more of 8 and 9 yds...

Now New Orleans that IMO was a performance indicative of QBs being able to throw on Balt. First of all the Saints offense is not better then Indy's you throw stats up all day...the Colts have a long track record. Also that game wa when everyone loving NO after the Bye and everyone had written off the Ravens...both off a BYE.


Brees had 383 yds for 8.5yd clip. Okay he did throw it 45 times but he was also sacked just twice...Colston had 163 yds and Horn 126 yds...

1st Q:
1st poss:1/1 -5yds
2nd : 4of 5 72 yds {1st goal at the 8 consecutive false starts and then an INT}

2nd Q:
3rdposs:1 of 2 -1 yds
4th poss: 0 of 1 INT
5th poss: 3 of 3 56 yds

At Half : 9 of 12 122 yards (completions of 18 , 32 , 53)

3rd Q:
6th poss: 1 of 2 3 yds
7th poss: 4 of 7 64 yds
8th poss: 3 of 6 69 yds

After 3 Q: 17 of 27 258 yds( completions of 17 , 38, 47)

4th Q :
9th poss: 1 of 5 14 yds
10th poss: 4 of 9 56 yds
11th poss: 2 of 4 55 yds

So they really didnt resort to the drop back and pass gameplan till the 4th quarter which was probably his worst.


To many seem to miss out on that Indy suffered injuries all year and we have no idea what there defense is capable of. Only 6 opponents scored better then 22 pts vs Indy...and you can erase week 17 and the 21 fourth Q points then Hous scored in week 2 down 5 TDS. You wont give credit for last week , you wont acknowledge that Dallas had 14 at home off them , that NYG had 21 and that NE had 20....some pretty good offenses that didnt steam roll Indy on the road....

Your have that second Cincy meeting so wrong its not even close.....The Bengals abused and owned Balt that day....how long did it take for them to cross the damn 50yd line.....that game was rarely in doubt....Not a wide margin but Balt had near zero chance in that game....For as well as they played the 1st meeting if Chris Henry didnt have spaghetti arms at the end of the game maybe Cincy would have pulled off a miracle....Balt never could put that game away......Bengals down 14-0 before they even really run a play....and these are not good offenses...sorry in meeting 1 Cincy was not crisp ....

As for field posistion again it easy for a good Defensive unit to hold back the crap offenses they play and create field position.....lets see them do to indy....I cant believe the Pitt and NO offense is being mentioned in the same sentence as the Colts offense......as for Cincy well it was a down year and who won there head to head meetings.....So all your doing is comparing Indy to worst teams and offenses....

The game comes down to this can Balt force Peyton into mistakes....obviously they are capable but I have see 4 Indy vs BAlt meetings and they havent succeeded yet......


Keep it coming so for all I have seen is Indy being belittled to inferior teams...this team was 12-5 and lost 2 games on 48 and 60yd FG... Jamal Lewis has not shown he can run the ball effectively and McNair is solid and has weapons but has been inconsistent from week to week. Which Dungy and Co have played well against him.....All the Ravens talk lets talk week 17....how come they didnt shutdown Lee Evans??? They dont seem to shut down many WRs....
 
I just read alot of really interesting informative stuff.
Thanks SportsNut, Joe, Blitz, Austin and many others.

The one thing I want to point out about the Balt at NO game is the bye week factor leading in for the Saints. Stats from that game are used throughout this thread and to me that game should be tossed out the window. The Saints were flat as shit in the first half which lead to some pick 6s and the second half was more of a pin your ears back defensive slaughter from the Ravens. The game to me is useless outside of the bye week slump in the first half. WHICH LEADS TO THIS QUESTION.......Have the Saints overcame the layoff blues they experienced against the Ravens? I agree that this game should be a PK on a neutral field.
I will not make a play on -5 but everyone is saying no way the Saints can lose. The Saints have never been in a position like this and the city is going to erupt Saturday. By nightfall lock up the wife and children. I think the play is clearly PHI +5 I just can't root against the Saints in any way here. How do you put a pointspread value on the home effect the Dome will have Saturday Night. It looks like it must be 5.

Manning getting +4? Im on it even if they are up against the 85 Bears.
I spend more time watching NFL from a fantasy perspective. I had both Addai and Wayne on some of my teams and I can concur that this has been the most methodical "ball control" Colts offense ever. I think you have it pegged in that this new controlling patient offense is their latest recipe to try and get Peyton in the SuperBowl.
I like Indy +4, Indy ML, and you have me looking at the Under now.
 
Joe Public-

I love our discussions ..truly.

You should be ashamed off yourself for giving Baltimore any credit regardless of what defense they were playing for winning in TB. See people say Preseason doesnt matter...it doesnt if your looking at stats. Its was clear back in PreSeason how bad the TB offense was gonna be. Again you cant give Balt credit for being a Top DEFENSIVE unit and playing one of the 4 worst offenses in the league.....they wil simple manhandle them. Since you somewhat wont go there I wont either...

I agree baltimore has played good football down the stretch. What about the teams they are playing though? There best win is going into Arrowhead and winning 20-10 in which all KC backers that day weer complaining how KC beat themselvs. The twist is how everyone now discounts Indy smoking KC last week and praises Baltimore for beating the same team. The Steelers were smoke and mirrors all season and you know it. Pitt finished 3-5 away winning against Weinke , in OT week 17 @ Cincy , and there huge 4th Q comeback against your Browns....they had 5 wins at home ...Miami in the opener , KC with Huard , Cle and TB late...and there lone solid win was by a TD over NO in a shootout....

Now I will give Baltimore props for a few reasons. First it tough to beat a team home and away like they did. Second Pitt did end 6-2 . How come no one mentions Demetrius Williams of Balt...?? I agree has not played dominant football but Balt was more desperate for the wins then Indy was...evey year the Colts go undefeated for a long stretch , lose a game and put some medicore efforts togther. This year they got out of the way and regrouped...Indy was flawed on the road late but 2 keys Dallas Clark and Bob Sanders were not playing? Did anyone notice that the so called teams Balt beat up didnt have TE's or RBs involved in the passing game?? If Indy played as well as the 1st H as they did in the 2nd then they would now be 17-0...to me it doesnt really mean there level of play dropped. As I siad your first 5 road games Meadowlands twice , Den , NE and Dallas...all tough venues where you get up for ur opponnet. The last three Tenny , Jax and Hous all divisional opponnets who they have whipped ovet the past 5 years....do you think Indy gets up for those games...I do NOT! You cant make the same claim for Baltimore cause in DEC going to Arrowhead is a challenge and they had wont at Heinz since the opening game their. So different mentality for the teams.....both teams are focused here

Good points for liking Indy. For me its simple the line should -9 but yet the market see values in 7 and 7.5. For football reasons...great point about Jax...a team who struggles on the road and had their 3rd string QB moved the ball all day and put up 30. They didnt deserve to be in the playoffs and yet thats Baltimore marquee win of the 2nd Half....see tahts funny to me.

You say Indy should be in position for fluke losses but Balt nearly lost @ Cleveland and @ Tenny as well.There is no such thing as consistent effort for 16 weeks. Now Joe your crazy if you think Indy views Hou , Tenny and Jax as the big games cause there in the division...care to wonder the last time any of those teams had beaten Indy?? I absolutely believe Indys marquee games are the marquee names they play not there divisional rivals....

1st meetings this year 3-0
Last year 6-0 only Jax lost by less then double digits.
Two seasons ago 5-1 again Kax the only one remotely competitive.
Three seasons ago 5-1 again Jax was competitive

So 20-2 past 22 they met and Indy is supposed to get up for these games? If Indy was gonna lose it was gonne be on the road...all these teams right place at the right time...


The end I tend to basically agree with everything you see. Just not to the extremes I really dont think Hous beat Indy...they were down 14-0 due to field position. The Tenny mismanagement its a blunder but being Dungy you may have forgotten whats it like to have nothing to lose...

Again citing recent play as true indicator is inaccurate though cause teh context is different for each team. Plus Balt can rely on there defensive efoort every week you now thats gonna be there. For alot of there opponents they couldnt even overcome that....

The key is can BALT impose its will....

As for the stuff about the line. I would bet Indy +3 cause I feel Indy is the better team and Indy has proven it can overcome road venues. Why I woud be hestitant to back them here at 3.5 or 3 is simply cause that would have meant the line would have moved alot....

Where would I se value In Balt? Pk to -2... after much review but not knowing the value of the BYE persay I have this game @ 2.5....which is not the same as where the books should open it....
 
Purple - Thanks for the post...need the viewpoint of a local..

Thats sort of my point about understanding the context a game is played under. Is that performance truly indicative of what would have happened if these teams played a 100 times? As you stated both teams were off BYE's and both entered it with different frames of mind. Balt had started 4-0 against three of the worst offenses in the NFL and then lost two straight. If not Marty Ball they would have been 3-3 and McNair maybe 2-4. New Orleans came out of nowhere winning 4 of 5 both losing tp carolina. I dont think its a reach to say Baltimore was desperate but also a veteran team better equipped to be prepared for that matchup. The Saints maybe had a week to think about how good they were and how maybe no one would come to the SuperDome and beat them. Maybe this is a reach by me but the point is the situation favored Baltimore .

I think its the key to the Saints - Eagles game....preparation during the Bye . Now this time they are not flying high into the Bye as they were early on...balthas proven to play well after BYE's under Billick. I just think this is a new situation for Indy...less pressure , more doubt , better offense due to the adapting style...

I am just not quick to believe that if NYG , Dallas and NE couldnt crack 21 at home vs Indy that Balt will who is nowhere near those offenses...and I said I find it hard to believe Indy will do worse then 17...

BOL...
 
Not sure how accurate this INFO is but it was on page 3 of the Monday Usa Today...

Strength of Victory = SOV
Strrength of Schedule = SOS

Colts : SOV .505 & SOS .500
Ravens : SOV .447 & SOS .461

Philly : SOV .450 & SOS .477
NO : SOV .425 & SOS .461

NE : SOV .469 & SOS .496
SD : SOV .424 & SOS .457

SEA: SOV .382 & SOS .453
CHI : SOV .404 & SOS .430

This gives us a window to see how strong these teams schedules were. Now as with any stat you canttake it for face value but I think reiterates a few things.

Indy is the only team with a SOV higher then its SOS. Which says the beat quality teams but lost to a few lesser teams. It may imply they play up or down to the level of the opponent. I think Balt's numbers show a consistency level. With Philly I think it does show that on paper Eagles are probably the better team but certainly not worse then equal. I think NE & SD backs up our thoughts...SA benefitted from an easy schedule. The last matchup well it shows that Seattle has no place being in the playoffs...which is something that you might want to think about before betting them....

 
I was talking about how the more taleneted team can struggle with motivation against teams of lesser quality. Maybe some dont agree with me I being an athlete myself I definetly feel that way...

We`ve got to become more and more professional in our approach when the juices aren`t flowing,” Suns point guard Steve Nash told the Arizona Republic. “I think we`re aware, but we`ve got to do a better job of coming out and playing harder . . . when we`re not as highly motivated as we are other times.”

So my word not mean much but I am sure Steve Nash's holds some weight
 
SportsNut said:
Yo whats up Blitz. First my apologies..I owe you an email . Things have been hectic and tmrw never comes...

See heres my thing I simply dont look at stats & rankings. I take each game as indivual event and apply the context in which I feel it was played under.

Take the Steelers for example they are not great pass offense. They simply were a poor road team who never ran the ball on the road. Which leads to more passing plays for them. Factor that it in with them trailing often and you can see why they grade out high as so called passing offense.

See stats and rankings dont touch my fancy for the simple reason there is very little consistency. Like the saying goes the only constant is change. Take Cincy for example yo have things like Palmers injury , the entire OL missing time with injuries and some injuries to WRs. So you cant look at every Cincy game and grade them the same. They had a real small window towards the end of the year when it started to look like the Bengals offense actually starting after the loss in Balt. Do you remember TJ 's rants about how they were better then Baltimore?? I know Cincy didnt walk away from Indy feeling they were better. Point is the SD game at home is the 1st where the offense really clicked. So the late Nov matchup tells more about Balt defense vs a sound pass attack the problem lies in that it was an away game. In that rematch some will say will Balt was less motivated...possibly. The fact remains though that in 3 of the first 5 possession the Benglas drove bewteen 60 and 77 yards. If you watched that game you would see Housh and CJ getting open rather easily...TJ 10c 106yds and CJ 8c 91 yds.... with the TD that made it 13-0 early 3rd Q the Bengasl went into cruise control. At that point it also could have been 21-0 had the offense better executed the earlier possessions inside Balt's 10..

Now lets review the cincy game in cincy:
1st possession: 1 of 3 16yds
2nd : 1 of 2 9yds
3rd : 7 of 9 77 yds (holding call on 1st goal at the 6th put them back)
4th: 6 of 8 58 yds
5th: 2 of 3 60 yds

The last possession they went up 13-0 and put it on crusie control cause Balt offense was playing so poorly and this was when Cincy D was playing well...off the Browns shutout...

17 of 25 220 yds for Palmer..10 completions of 10+ yds and four more of 8 and 9 yds...

Now New Orleans that IMO was a performance indicative of QBs being able to throw on Balt. First of all the Saints offense is not better then Indy's you throw stats up all day...the Colts have a long track record. Also that game wa when everyone loving NO after the Bye and everyone had written off the Ravens...both off a BYE.


Brees had 383 yds for 8.5yd clip. Okay he did throw it 45 times but he was also sacked just twice...Colston had 163 yds and Horn 126 yds...

1st Q:
1st poss:1/1 -5yds
2nd : 4of 5 72 yds {1st goal at the 8 consecutive false starts and then an INT}

2nd Q:
3rdposs:1 of 2 -1 yds
4th poss: 0 of 1 INT
5th poss: 3 of 3 56 yds

At Half : 9 of 12 122 yards (completions of 18 , 32 , 53)

3rd Q:
6th poss: 1 of 2 3 yds
7th poss: 4 of 7 64 yds
8th poss: 3 of 6 69 yds

After 3 Q: 17 of 27 258 yds( completions of 17 , 38, 47)

4th Q :
9th poss: 1 of 5 14 yds
10th poss: 4 of 9 56 yds
11th poss: 2 of 4 55 yds

So they really didnt resort to the drop back and pass gameplan till the 4th quarter which was probably his worst.


To many seem to miss out on that Indy suffered injuries all year and we have no idea what there defense is capable of. Only 6 opponents scored better then 22 pts vs Indy...and you can erase week 17 and the 21 fourth Q points then Hous scored in week 2 down 5 TDS. You wont give credit for last week , you wont acknowledge that Dallas had 14 at home off them , that NYG had 21 and that NE had 20....some pretty good offenses that didnt steam roll Indy on the road....

Your have that second Cincy meeting so wrong its not even close.....The Bengals abused and owned Balt that day....how long did it take for them to cross the damn 50yd line.....that game was rarely in doubt....Not a wide margin but Balt had near zero chance in that game....For as well as they played the 1st meeting if Chris Henry didnt have spaghetti arms at the end of the game maybe Cincy would have pulled off a miracle....Balt never could put that game away......Bengals down 14-0 before they even really run a play....and these are not good offenses...sorry in meeting 1 Cincy was not crisp ....

As for field posistion again it easy for a good Defensive unit to hold back the crap offenses they play and create field position.....lets see them do to indy....I cant believe the Pitt and NO offense is being mentioned in the same sentence as the Colts offense......as for Cincy well it was a down year and who won there head to head meetings.....So all your doing is comparing Indy to worst teams and offenses....

The game comes down to this can Balt force Peyton into mistakes....obviously they are capable but I have see 4 Indy vs BAlt meetings and they havent succeeded yet......


Keep it coming so for all I have seen is Indy being belittled to inferior teams...this team was 12-5 and lost 2 games on 48 and 60yd FG... Jamal Lewis has not shown he can run the ball effectively and McNair is solid and has weapons but has been inconsistent from week to week. Which Dungy and Co have played well against him.....All the Ravens talk lets talk week 17....how come they didnt shutdown Lee Evans??? They dont seem to shut down many WRs....
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first off, you don't owe me an email... or anything else actually.. lol..

secondly, I am in a bit of a rush now, so I will go into details later, but just from reading your thoughts, you really seem to have Indy on a very high pedestal bud...

It seems you are saying their offense is uncomparable to any of the other 31 teams.. yet I have seen their offense struggle against crap teams already this year.... and have definitely seen them blow big games in the past playoffs.... anyway.. get into things a bit later when I have a tad more time.
 
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No prob Blitz...it just different approaches. I understand your points and agree to a degree with them. Its just there's a mentality of lets knock Indy for what they did wrong but forget to praise them for what they did good. The Indy offense struggled in a few games but again what team plays to its potential 16 weeks? It just seems people look for the flaws in Indy without saying what good things they did..I mean no other offense struggled at times.?? Didnt the great Saint offense put up 10 spot at home vs Wash? These is reasons why they happen to everyone...

Past playoff failures IMO have more to do with expectations. Reality is Indy was perceived as better then they were where today I feel its the opposite. The last meeting in Foxboro do you recall what the line was ? Think about it after the struggles....PKem....that should tell you something about perception. Thats why the pats continue to fare well ATS cause they never received that public premium in it spreads.

I am not saying they are uncomparable. I am saying they are consistent and the teams you are pulling out had flaws. The Bengals at there peak are comparable but what happened both times Indy played Cincy...so I would still have to put Indy above Cincy even when its clicking , SD extremely untested with a 1st year QB but great RB sort of a weaker version IMO of the KC offenses with Green playing well and Holmes , Pittsburgh is a joke IMO...there were questions all season about replacing Ben at QB ...that alone should disqualify them from the conversation not to mention there disgusting rush yardage on the road , the Sainst IMO are like the Cowboys in some ways they have the horses to explode but there hasnt been that consistency factor. I dont think I am reaching to say teh Colts still have the best offense in football. Wouldnt it be funny to finally see Indy vs NE in the Championship with Indy finally beating them....they have won @ Foxboro and shaken that moose....

Let me have when you got a chance.....I am taking this all in. I may disagree but that doesnt mean I am saying you are wrong. I do disagree with including the Steelers in a conversation about top offenses.
 
Sorry, SN, I've been caught up in this Pinny thing all day, not good.

Anyway, so, you wanna talk Eagles, do you? Well, let's do it.

First, the most important things then I'll ramble a bit.

I think the Lito Sheppard injury is being overplayed. Don't get me wrong, I love Lito, have since he was a Gator, but he's not Champ Bailey. He's good, and the Saints have receivers, but it's not like suddenly seeing Steve Smith or a motivated Randy Moss over there. Their pass defense, I think, will be all right.

Second, the Eagles are, in my opinion, in a great spot this week. If you look at this team this year, for the most part, they have played much much better as an underdog on the road. When nobody expects this team to win, they have really rallied together. Conversely, last week, when everybody expected them to crush the Giants, they couldn't do it--even though they should have.

I actually expect a pretty big effort from them this week.

I also expect the Saints to have some issues. I think they're in exactly the same position the Eagles were in last week. They had a week off, they're at home, an underdog team with every expectation of killing the team they're going to play. That's a pressure NO hasn't felt in forever--unless you want to count a couple of the late games this year like the Washington game which they lost outright.

So the question, for me, is can Philly get in a rhythm early and get some points. If they can do that, they're going to be in this game until the end. If they get down early it might be tough, but I don't see a blowout here for the simple reason that the Eagles got down vs. this team in their first meeting and put up 17 or 20 points basically in the third quarter.

The Eagles know they can score on this Saints team, what they don't know and need to prove is that they can stop them. That was the issue last time. The Eagles storm back, take the lead, then immediately blow a coverage and let the Saints tie the game. Then they give the Saints the ball back and they hold it for, I believe, the last eight minutes of the game plodding down the field for a game-winning FG.

I'm sure that sticks with this defense. There are also guys on both sides with things to prove to their old team. Donte Stallworth felt run out of NO for no reason by Peyton's staff, I'm sure Darren Howard would like to have a big game this week. Likewise I'm sure Hollis Thomas would like to put up some numbers, Simeneu (sp?) as well.

These teams, to your point, are very very evenly matched. They're such mirrors of each other. I think the Eagles have the better defense of the two and the Saints the better offense. But I think this is a three point game.

I got the Saints at -3 early and I'm looking for the Eagles at +7 to try to middle it. But I'm probably going to put a little on the +200 ML just for value's sake.

Because I actually agree with you, at -3 this game makes sense, at -6 it's wrong.

And really, I think this is a case of the public pushing the line.

Because it opened around -4 and has just steadily been bet to where it is now.
 
SportsNut said:
No prob Blitz...it just different approaches. I understand your points and agree to a degree with them. Its just there's a mentality of lets knock Indy for what they did wrong but forget to praise them for what they did good. The Indy offense struggled in a few games but again what team plays to its potential 16 weeks? It just seems people look for the flaws in Indy without saying what good things they did..I mean no other offense struggled at times.?? Didnt the great Saint offense put up 10 spot at home vs Wash? These is reasons why they happen to everyone.
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I really wish I had more time to post in here, but damn... I'm kinda swamped with stuff right now...

anyway.. some quick notes...

you make some great points, but I really like your paragraph above... it is the exact point I would make about Baltimore...

you see.. you yourself brought up how Baltimore allowed Lee Evans to do this and that when everyone is bragging about their defense... but then you go and say "what team plays to its potential 16 weeks?"... you see.. as easy it is for you to bring up play by play stats on the Baltimore/Cincy game or Baltimore/Buffalo game, it would be just as easy for me to pick and choose an Indy game where they played bad and give out the play by play stats on that one... the point is like you said... no team will play to its full potential week in and week out for 16 straight weeks...

in short, I personally think the past games this year for both the Ravens and Colts are great tools for determining what to expect out of their matchup, but the bottom line is they cannot be used as anything more than just tools.. no one particular game that either of them had this season will determine the outcome of this game. Regardless of what is brought up, this matchup is coming down to how each will perform against each other.. not how they performed in the past or against other teams.

I also noticed you are making it seem like most people are knocking Indy and not giving them credit and at the same time just bragging and boasting about how good Baltimores' defense is.. yet I believe the public is favoring Indy, so I am not sure what people you are referring to.

either way.. it should be an interesting matchup.. and as I said before... Peyton getting a hot hand in this game is their only chance to stay in this game... I just think if he is not playing at his best, it is going to get ugly for them... I know you don't see much in Jamal Lewis.. and with good reason.. I don't either, but I will say when he gets the ball over 20 times, they are successful and one good game agianst LJ that Indys' defense had last week was not enough to convince me they are worthy now of stopping the run...

If Bellick keeps his defense fresh and Peyton off the field by running the ball as much as possible, then they should be more than ready to do everything they can to slow down Peyton when they are on the field.

I don't think we will agree on things much with this one... but either way, it should be a good one...

good luck this weekend bud... hope all goes well for us both.
 
One thing people fail to understand is I use what information people are relying to make decisions as my tool for understsanding if perception is correct. I have knocked Balt cause they played no one...there schedule was fairly weak and they played a few good offenses....to say Indy could have done a few things better only means they would have been 15-1..Could you imagine what would happen if Indy played Cle, TB or Oak? Another thing is people overlook injuries to Dallas Clark and Bob Sanders..they are key players and Indy is 13-1 with Dallas Clark...this is the one season Indy did not have 3 WRs...they couldnt afford his injury especially with Edge gone and Stokley out.....

Simple logic what person on the field is a concern to the Balt defense other then Lee Evans? Seriously name someone else who you should worry about beating you. McGahee had two 100 yd games and two 90 yd games all season so it aint him. So if your defense is so great why is Lee Evans the only player with any offensive talent catching a 44 yd TD (when its 9-0) and 52 yd pass(19-7) in the most crucial parts of the game. Its not one game or me twisting anything...its me forming an opinion thats isnt influenced by what I read or hear on TV....Balt played great defense that day supposedly...Cincy and NO both had two guys each top 100 yds receiving in there meetings( four WR's). What about Steve Smith 189 yds receiving? How does the greatest defensive allow Smith to get a 72 YD TD reception after they just scored to cut the game to 2 points. You think I am only pointing on the weaknessess but who else did Balt play with a decent QB... TB , Oak , Cleveland twice , SD when Rivers was still a caretaker which you is not an exaggeration , Denver..Plummer lost his job midseason , Vince Young , the Steelers twice, Mike Vick , Trent Green who stunk this year , JP Losman who had 237 yds...even Derek Anderson threw on them.....so I am only pointing out the games that matter.....and even if say okay Plamer played shitty the 1st time what happened the second time they had no answer for him..I just dont see who I should be measuring balt against??

Exactly what solid QB that had a solid passing offense did Baltimore shutdown.....I simply dont see one..

If Peyton Manning can play a big game....that sounds so ridiculous. Granted Iknow what you mean but think about that...Like I said the difference is expectations. All games are played under different context. There is probably more pressure as -10 pt favorite then a 4 pt underdog. The whole Colts situation was a mess last season with the James Dungy death and does anyone realize the team who beats the Colts goes to the Super Bowl. Its just how life works its easiest to excel when no one expects you to.....this is the first time I recall in awhile the Colts being a true dog....

If your view of who the Public is on is dependent on SportsInsights or Wagerline then we dont have the same views. My job as a bond trader was to stare at a screen all day long , 50 hours a week....everyone who places a bet is part of the public....the line has seen no movement at -4 which means its receiving fairly equal action... so there is no bias....also as for public perception show me the sports shows picking Indy...I honestly havent seen many...People worry about how the public is picking and they cant even understand how a market works...thats NOT a knock on you by any stretch by I am so tired of hearing about the public....anyone who place s a wager is part of the public..I could careless what so called sharps are playing....show me the abudance of posters liking Indy then? If 52 % of the wagers are someone thats not a bias thats equal action in my book...you would have a balanced book in my world

It will be a great matchup...and again I think your reasoning is sound to a degree but I dont see how Balt is cheap here..

The reason Jamal Lewis gets the ball twenty times isnt the cause of there success is there willingness to just sit on a lead. I would bet Jamal Lewis doesnt get 20 carries in losses without looking...so the 20 carry mark becomes significant it means that Balt played with a lead...I also will bet that all of Balts close wins and losses are the games McNair passed the most times....

As for that 1 good game....well I didnt expect LJ to do much. I said all week in my post for the 1st roound how it was the biggest misconception that Indy allowed 170 yds per game on the ground......it simply is NOT FACT. They had a couple of bad games and really the teams that ran on them were Tenny and Jax....at the Dome few backs broke a 100 yards...the Colts are not the worst run defense in the league that is a misused statistic. There are plenty of teams I owuld rather handoff the ball against.....as well as the fact Sanders didnt really play this season....

The biggest thing I use to wager is fundamentals. is the line where it should be and I go from there.....I dont really wager based on strength vs weakness unless that line is in my favor......

The one thing I learned from Dr.Bob is this.....His rationale is the same as mine. Handicapping is problem solving in its purest form. All I am trying to do is decipher the equation and find the answer.......

I tried my best to explain how Seattle laying 3 points last was a joke.....this week I dont see anything remotely similiar......However I dont see how Balt is even remotely equal to Indy at this point.....and I am willing to state that if Balt does win it wont cover the spread....



Holla back if you can....
 
Joe Pub ~

I actually missed your post...

I really cant say I disagree with anything..not even slightily....

With the Sheppard situation I agree. It really didnt appear to be a factor in the early part of the season. Sure we want the guy around but Jim Johnson is what we are relying on.

Excellent second point. I think its wise to understand how a team performs in a certain role. Seems like every game with Philly wil be decided in the 4th quarter. The scheduling shit aside its good to know that they have bounced back well after MNF.

with NO failure against BALT after the BYE this season it should be a concern how they show up here.

During the recent Philly streak there ability to score first has put the other teams on its heels. So great point about how they can overcome it at home vs NYG but maybe not away.

I dont overly concerned with how a line moves unless it becomes one direction and strong.....more concerned with the reason for the move....like if I feel 3 is fair yet people think 4 is cheap then bet it to 5 I see value in the dog..

There really isnt much to say...its gonna be about on field execution. With Andy Reid no longer calling the plays I hope I wont have to listen to another press conference speech where he takes the blame for blwoing a huge lead or something of that nature....
 
Looking at Sunday:

The more I look @ NE traveling SD the more I lean towards San Diego here. Definetly a tough spot having to fly cross country after a home win. Especially when that win looks so much better on paper then it did when you watched the game.

Truth is while NE may want to avenge last years loss I dont think they are capable. SD lost two games by three points all season both on the road. Neiher game you could say the opposition defeated SD. Really you want to ask yourself who is winning this game? Just like Indy last week you dont really want to be doubting a very good team at home.

The last 2 meetings LT has ran all over NE defense. Last 3 games NE allowed 5.5 YPC with Jones Drew and Henry having big days. See what all the guys harping on Indys run defense numbers fail to realize is just how good the running attacks of Tenny & JAx are. Whihc indy had to face 4 times. Anyway its obvious that NE will not stop the SD ground attack meaning Philip Rivers doesnt have to win the ball game.

For all the talk about coaching...one thing stands out Marty realized his mistake after the Baltimore loss and that day IMO MartyBall DIED! It may have taken 20 years but he saw the error in his ways. WHich to me makes past coaching records 5-12 irrevelant. You can quote all the playoff numbers vs NE but know this...who hung the loss on Brady and when was it? It was Denver last year on the road....The Broncos are not as good defensively and certainly not as good as offensively. SD is great versus the run and that hurts NE approach. Sure SD secondary is not that strong but is NE WR's the guys your looking to take advantage of that. Watson is questionable as well. You can get excited about NE road record and all but they didnt beat anyone on there game. They beat Cincy and exposed them , while getting Jax and Houston at the end. Miami is very indicative of what could happen to NE against a solid defense.

I thought about the line...last year NE was +3 in Denver and lost , they hosted SD as -4 and lost badly.....to me these numbers suggest SD is the stronger team. Especially realizing Harrison is out and gone are playoff heroes Givens and Branch. Look at NE road tags this year +5 in Cincy , +3 @ Jax and @ Houston.....

At the end of the day I think SD should be -5.5 or -6 here. Why? They have a great home field edge somewhat more then the traditional 3 points and on a neutral field I feel they would make SD the slight fav .....

Really when you break it down NE is not as good as it was last year. Where as a some young SD team is still trying to fulfill its potential.

If the NYJ could have punched one in instead of 3 FGS they would have broke 20 pts which would have made 5 of 6 opponents down the stretch...Rivers was crisp versus Zona after some subpar efforts...

At the end of the day SD is probably with Indy the two best teams in the AFC.

I expect to see -4 / -4.5 at the end of the week ...

Chargers and the Under.....
 
Now with Seattle traveling to Chi....

Honestly I am just confused. Part of me sayz Chi is cracking...the other part says Seattle stinks but could have momentum with the gift last week.

Truth is Seattle playing such a hard hitting defense like Chi with an early start for them could be dangerous.....

I expect this to be a real lows scoring affair even with Seattles defense. I think Chi can overcome the loss of Harris and Brown here. Seattle is still struggling on the OL, there WRs are banged up and Shaun Alexander never has a big game against a good defense.....not even last year.

I would like to see the line come down though.....its alot higher then last meeting and Sea has Alexander this time....so that might make them attractive....if the lineholds I might see value in Seattle....

Tough matchup....
 
Hey, SN, a couple of things.

First, I just want to clear something up that I'm pretty sure about, but I just want to make sure of. You're a New Yorker, right? I say that because that's how I'm taking your tone and, really, why I keep hoping you're not taking me to be someone who's telling you to go take a flying leap.

As you've said before, if we were talking in person I think it would come off better, the truth be told, I tend to get along better with East Coast folk, and New Yorkers in particular.

Next, back to Baltimore/Indy. I'm not sure you ever answered my question about if this were a PK.

But beyond that, I see the points you're making about public perception and, really, you're doing what I always advise people to do when their arguments seem to stray too far from the point. You're 'capping the number on the board.

And, given that, I actually agree with you more than not. Because at four I don't see the value in Baltimore I do on the ML or at -3. That's because Indy does have the capability to score quickly--though they haven't been as good about that this year as last. And because Baltimore doesn't. So, really, for me in this game it's getting -3, getting the ML or nothing at all.

Still, can we stop ripping on Cleveland? Not because they're one of my two teams, well, OK, partially because of that, but I'm giving some weight to both Cleveland and Houston in their respective matchups with Balt. and Indy is because, even though those teams may not be good, division games are always tough--especially on the road. They just are.

One of my criteria for teams to bet on, for teams I consider 'good teams' is this, do they beat bad teams? In the case of Baltimore that answer is yes. Yeah, Cleveland should have got 'em in their first game early in the season in Cleveland, but Baltimore did win. And in the part of the season that I think matters most now--the latter half of the season--the Ravens beat every bad team they faced.

They f**ked around with Tennessee and let Cleveland claw back a little, but they sat on Buffalo and at the end of the day, they won all those games. Indy did not. They lost to Houston, they lost to Tennessee, they could have lost to Buffalo at home.

That, to me, is significant.

I agree with you, if Peyton is going to put this team on his shoulders and play a flawless game, the Colts can win it outright. But is there something in his recent road games, or in his historical road playoff games that should make us think that will happen?

Is there something to make us think the Colts defense will play a different game on the road this week than they have in their last four road games in which they've given up 21, 20, 44, and 27 points respectively?

I just don't see it. But I'm willing to listen.

Quick note on your other games. The lower the SD line goes the more I like the Chargers. I also like points in that game. No Harrison for NE means, just like last week, SD will be able to go over the top when they want to, and I think Bill B. spreads out SD like he did Minny earlier this year. Gets the ball out of Brady's hands quick and lets Brady eat that secondary up. I know that total's high, but if Pinny hadn't of deserted me I'd look to get some value in game--as it is, I may take a shot on it as it stands right now.

The only under I really like this weekend is in NO and even that I don't like that much. Joe's not a huge under guy.
 
Great stuff Sportsnut. What I like is you go beyond the stats, which is the key. Stats are great, but to understand their meaning you have to get to the core events that caused them and understand that.

I really like Indy and liking Chicago as well (line seems high, but this Seattle team sucks) how about that for in depth analysis? I think the Bears will, unlike Dallas, take shots against that Seattle secondary. Why not, they have a great defense, and that Seattle offense is banged up. Just see the Bears winning, and given Seattle's ineptitude all year and the injuries, Bears win like 24-7. I originally was liking the over, but really how is Seattle going to score much on the Bears in this matchup?
 
One thing I am certain about is I am New Yorker. Hopefully a more open minded , not so sterotypically one but really thats not for me to decide. No matter where we are raised I believe there is something , some traits we all share due to location & upbringing. The one knock on us NY'ers I guess is that feeling of entitlement , that we are better simply cause we are from NY...dont know where that started bit it exists...another discussion for another forum. I am not real good with tone and getting my point across at times. While I may be a decent writer the english language , grammar , and things of that nature often betray me. Probably not tough to figure I was always a math guy and stat geek reading boxscores at like , five , six, seven...Also NO desire to spell check until I see a post which illustrates me as ReTaRd. So yeah I tend to apologize alot for maybe sounding harsh or angry. I never want to come across the wrong way so to speak. I dont like saying I am right and you are wrong...it becomes to personal. Cause rarely do I mean it to sound that way. By no means did I ever take anything you ever said as even negative. I truly do enjoy the debates and hopefully Blitz realizes as well I am only counterpointing his thoughts. How do you strongly disagree with someone and not ruffle their feathers? On a message board I mean..

SirWinZ - I am more of a cause and effect type guy. When something happens I try to ask why? Like Peytons Int's for example. Someone can say he didnt play well cause he threw 3 Ints. Where as I know he actually played well and two of them were simple miscommunication bewteen him and Harrison. Which doesnt make it alright but I can at least tell myself its easily correctable and more out of the ordinary then anything else. So I wont credit KC defense for that or even post it as a negative for Indy. There is how Dallas simple beat themselves in a plethra of ways In Seattle..mostly due to Romo's in accuracy..you can wonder why they didnt attack the secondary more , sort of like why didnt Joe Torre bunt on the bloody sock Curt Schilling and test him? I stray...

Glad we have similiar approaches..and yeah Chi / Sea is tough to put in words , on paper , in a spreadsheet whatever one does..the one that scares me with SEA is the second life angle and for Chi hasnt Grossman at home more often them not come out smelling like roses when everyone doubts him? With a banged up secondary what a great opportunity to silence the critics for a little while longer...I am just not certain..

The rest Joe Pub I will have to address tmrw...
 
Great discussion. I want to thank everyone for all the time you've taken to type all of this up. I have many good ideas but i can never force myself to sit and type everything up, but when i do it just comes out all wrong it seems. o well.

quick opinions, then maybe ill get involved more heavily tomorrow evening.

indy +4.5 - gotta love it. but how much. Ravens D won't be able to hold the Indy O down, unless indy comes out flat and gets frustrated like they did last year vs pitt(and still could have won the game btw). I cannot pass on this line. no way no how. way too much value as i cannot see indy losing by more than one score to this Ravens O that loves to sit on leads, yet cannot run the ball worth a damn.

SD -4.5 - I really want to unload on this line. I would have expected -7 but everyone LOVES NE in the playoffs. Well guys, this is not the same NE team, not even close, to the NE's of the past. They will not have an answer for LT. He will be all over the field, and old Teddy and Mike will be stumbling behind him in his dust all evening. I could talk about how this is a weak line all night long, but i'll save it for tomorrow. If i can get 4 for a decent price, I will have way too much $$ riding on the Bolts (its not way too much if you win though, right?)

NO/philly - NO IDEA! well i have ideas, but i could see this game going any way a game could go. Cannot trust NO in this spot with all that emotion (its not always a good thing ya know). Though, i cant trust phillys D to keep em down. im staying away

Seattle/Chi - Another tough one. How bad is seattle, really? With Chicago's stable of RBs you know they are taking this game out of Rex's hands. So, covering 9 points isnt a small task. Unless it's with special teams and defensive scores. I had Chitowns D on my fantasy squad so i can tell you first hand, they have been known to put up points. I just cant get a good feel for this one. I see Chicago winning by a TD, but if it gets wild, hell, they could win by 28. ANOTHER GAME IM STAYING AWAY FROM

Ill add my insight to the colts/bolts with a little evidence(if there is such a thing) tomorrow evening. In the meantime, keep it up. Lets make some cash.
 
Back to JP- (Thanks Tide I'll be looking for the rest & Killa)

Honestly, I like Cleveland wih Frye. I dont watch enough Browns football to know if he is the answer , the solution or the problem. What I do know is they compete just about every week. Which as someone who likes a good underdog I love. Actually I am not knocking the Browns but two things. First is the Ravens defense faced a very young RAW QB in Derek Anderson who shall we say is slow footed. They sacked him 5 times and picked him off twice but the kid still threw 2TDS (by the middle of Q3), went 23/32 for 223 (7YPA). He had 9 completions of 11+ yds( 28 and 36yd strikes). Pretty solid work for a rookie NFL QB(with little game experience) on a less then medicore team with Wright & Droughns running the ball. The following week Losman played okay....I guess my point is there is a way to attack Balts defense and that is through the air. Numerous QB's have had better the avg games against them. Samari Rolle is a former Titan like McNair and neither had success when facing Indy. Yet , the media rather suscribe to Peyton's playoff failures and overlook this angle. Opposing QB's with less weapons then Peyton has and definetly worse OL were able to move the ball through the air. As I said it appears Peyton is willing to take what is given to him . Not just the KC game look at prior games....18play drive vs Miami....does anyone believe Indy was in pratice mode possible after the undefeated season came to end...?? All teams will defend their home field but maybe some of those late games they 'worked' on some things..??

Lets go to the 1st meeting you know I am not exaggerating or twisting when I say Cleveland had them beat at home(cause you agreed). However the difference wasnt the Ravens won ( on the scoreboard it was), rather the home team lost. Cleveland lost that game late IMO. Where as the Titans and Texans didnt. They made that last play that Cle was in position to make but didnt. I understand your point about divisional rivals but you still have to feel its very uninteresting for Indy midseaon or later to play these teams. As I said Indy was 20-2 past 22 vs Jax , Tenny and Houston. With probably 75% of the wins blowouts. Where as Balt/Cle is still a rivalry no matter. I truly believe the games INDY is getting up for are the marquee names not there so called divisional foes. What does Indy have to left to prove when it plays Jax , Tenny , and Hous at this point....in my eyes nada...

So a couple thing seperating Balt pulling out wins and Indy losing is this. The team with the better defense has the advantage cause you cant score without the ball. Now one is aying Indys defense is better then balts so that has to be something we can agree on. Both Dallas and Houston chewed out the end of the game never getting Indy that last opportunity. Jax that day as some have said probably would have beaten anyone that day.They were a defensive force all year at home , they always get up for Indy and Maurice Jones Drew was the best young back and IMO the Rookie of the Year. He had 166 carries just missed 1000yds(941) had 13TDs and 40 catches for 2 more TDS.... So for me you have remember Balt played particularily bad in Cle and Tenn but made comebacks because the opponent didnt seal the deal. Which is tougher vs Balt D then Indy D....but there is a reason why Indy's opponents didnt want the Colts to get the ball back as well..

As for as your good team scenario goes I cant say I disagree. Who is the hungrier team inseason? Indy wins 12 or so games every season for how long. Where as Balt won like 5 last year , had to switch OC's cause they were playing below potential , and genereally where the team of the two who had something to prove. While you may not agree with players struggling with motivation , I feel my Steve Nash quote illustrates how hard it is for elite teams to bring it every week. So while I agree with your description I think a team like Indy is a different animal.

The logic that now asking Peyton Manning to win a game is hard to do is exactly what I want. Role and expectations is everything in life and success. When your counted out to succeed everything but success is a failure. No one says Indy had a bad day last year after a rough stretch with Dungys son passing...and there will still in position to win that game. How many Qbs would go to NE in the PATS prime with bad weather and win... Naturally all athletes play better at home then away but to me Peyton is the same QB regardless.

With the last 4 road games as I said how confident is anyone Balt can do better then 20,21 pts ?? They do have Bob Sanders and as I pointed out the majority of scoring Balt has been due to field poistion. They lost BJ Sams which is huge , they are not facing some clueless offense that they can repeatedly pin back inside the 20 , Indy has Sanders back which seems to have a trickle down effect and balt doesnt have a sound running game. So why would Balt do better then 21? That seems best case scenario to me....Now your asking Indy to score 16 or less?? The Ravens Defense is very good but it has seen opposing QBs move the ball on them..and Indy now has Vinateri as well...

With regards to the NE/SD game while I think Minny defense is comparable in the sense great run def and below avg pass defense. I think SD is a sleeper defense which is much better then what Minny brought to the table. Also Minnys offense is inept and that sort of drains the life out of your team. The way NE is scoring lately the over has to look good and there defense looks like so-so lately. Right now I have this right on the screws SD 27-20...so no play but the facts seem to state over even with a higher total where as my gut wants to think under....
 
Hmmmmm....suddenly ravens are 51% on SI now......seems I was right the so called public wasnt on Indy after all...
 
amounts are probably fairly even. I consider it a good sign when one of my buddies wants to load up on the Ravens. He usually pics the wrong team in these types of games. Perception is key in this line, as always. People expect Indy to lose because "Peyton in the playoffs" yadda yadda ya. Even if so, I just don't think itll be by more than 3.

I really don't have much to add to this discussion about this game. You guys have hit all of my main points (Sanders, Ravens O, Ravens/Colts recent past, Indy in an underdog role, etc.), therefore i'm done talking about this game. I would like to talk about the others, though, since we havent talked enough about SD and NE, and im a still undecided on the other two. I will be back later on to throw some ideas out there.

take it easy guys, relax on this friday night, cuz we have a couple good nights of PLAYOFF FOOTBALL in front of us!

peace
 
See, the good thing about me in this thread, SN, is that I can answer some of your questions.

Such as, one, I haven't taken anything you've said the wrong way, we're totally cool. I was more than anything just making sure, going both ways, really.

Two, Charlie Frye 'may' be the answer. That's the unfortunate reality of this season, that this question never got answered definiatively. Frye was pounded like a ten dollar hooker all year long behind a make-shift, p*ss poor line. He was also coached by a QB coach with no NFL experience and he had both Braylon and K2 in his hear all year about how he should throw them the ball as much as humanly possible.

It was a mess and, honestly, nobody's totally sure if he is the guy or not because he spent most of the season running for his life--he also had to change coordinators midway through the season and will likely get a new one in this offseason as well. (For the record, they've said they've opened up the job, but Derek Anderson isn't going to beat out Frye, he's not good enough.)

Which sort of brings this back to Baltimore in that in their second game of the season, there were people in Baltimore who said they were happier to see the QB be Anderson than Frye because Anderson is easier to defend--and they should know, Baltimore was the team that drafted him.

I actually think that knowledge and confidence, that familiarity with the Ravens was good for seven points from Anderson in that game. Other teams might have been intimidated going in there, for Anderson it had to be comforting in a way.

But, overall, as said above, we've pretty much talked this game into the ground at this point. I think we both agree that whoever can get to 23 or 24 points wins this game. I just happen to think that's Baltimore and I have trouble seeing Indy getting to 20 here.

The one thing that I'm starting to not like about this game is how many people seem to be on the Ravens.

It's the same thing I like about the Eagle game--nobody, I mean, nobody is picking the Eagles to win that game. That I like, this thing where everybody in the media is suddenly all over the Ravens bothers me a bit.
 
That's the good thing about both of us. We both have conviction in our beliefs and opinions along with the willingness to listen or hear someone out. Like I have been saying I truly to enjoy the discussions. I think everyone enjoys reading them as well. Takes alot to ruffle my feathers and nothing you said even came out as negative IMO..Actually I was more double checking to see what my tone may have been...moving right along...

Charlie Frye ...yeah kinda agree lost season for them due to injuries really on both sides of the ball. I credit them for not firing Romeo cause the one thing from afar that impresses me about him is the defense always seems shorthanded but they never have an embarrassing performance. The whole Carthon situation coupled with the 'look at me' attitudes of Winslow and Edwards certianly dont help..but I still think as a team they did some good things. More then Frye then need a legit RB and the OL needs to get healthy Andruzzi and bentley solid players..

Thats certainly an intersting point about DA I didnt really think of. To be honest how familiar could he have really been? His numbers werent all that different vs KC or Pitt...its still a guy who shouldnt be beating you if your Balt...I would like to bet that Mr. Peyton Manning is more familiar with Balt then DA and I know that wasnt your point...mine is if familiarity is all you need to beat this defense then who will be better prepared then Peyton?

Thats a big reason why I dont like these public betting theories cause few people I think correctly identify who the public perception is biased to..

I think this game comes down to Peyton Manning vs the Ravens defense..we know Indy will struggle to run the ball , we know Balt will rely heavily on its defense to create turnovers , to stop the Colts O and get great field position , we know Balt doesnt have much of a ground game and that the stronger area of Indys defense is the pass defense....

Gonna be a good game I still strongly believe that even if Balt wins it fails to do so by 4 points...

My only concern is that while no one is giving Philly a chance its is also a team trying to win its 5th straight away! This is the one side I am unsure I already played Chicago , while SD and Indy are simply about getting the best line. With Philly I agree this line should be -3 ish which is why I want it go higher rather then lower....
 
Tide : I will throw some more stuff out there already played Da Bears and will play SD but expecting a line drop..can have -4.5 now...
 
Yeah, we're cool, and as someone said to me recently, I'm sure if we ever were in a book or a bar, we would have much to discuss.

I agree with you about the public thing, and actually the point I was making about DA wasn't so much his familiarity with the defense as his familiarity with the Ravens in general. I don't think there's very much threatening about a team you used to play for.

So whereas another QB might have gotten shakey going on the road in his second start, I think that was a great place for Anderson to go because I don't think it scared him at all. Really it's not surprising that he played so much better there than he did against Pittsburgh the week before.

Two minor points on that Browns/Ravens game, Cleveland had ten days to prepare for that game as well, and if I remember right, the Ravens were up 14-3 really early. They then sort of put it in cruise control and the Browns made some plays. But the Ravens turned it back on and still won by 10.

The difference I think in the Indy/Philly picks that you have is that I think you've just got so much more room in the number for Philly than you do in Indy.

Now maybe that's because, in my head, I've got Baltimore -3 rather than -4, but really right now you can get 5.5, buy that to 6 on the Birds and then you've got room to cover and not get the win. With Indy it feels like a very tight squeeze trying to get that team inside the number.
 
oooohhh....comfort level you meant.....gotcha...can agree with that....Would agree maybe an increased comfort level for DA helped him play his so called best..we can shake on that...but I also think he did okay vs Pitt....

They had some extra time but they dont exactly have offensive geniuses working for them. My point with Balts pass defense is simply that many people have solved including to a degree QB's like DA and Losman. Are there reasons sure but Peyton Manning , the Colts O & gameplan , plus OL are significantly better then what those guys are running out. So what about the success Delhomme had with Steve Smith and Drew Carter? What about the return meeting for Carson Palmer? There wasnt many guys who you gave a chance versus that DEF but yet other then 1st game vs Cincy you cant say anyof the QB's or offenses failed vs Balt.

I understand that Balt will blitz and try confuse Peyton. However just like Boise State did to OU superior and quicker defense, I owuld expect Indy to use that Balt speed and agression against them. Short pasing plays , misdirection handoffs ...I fully expect Peyton to adjust here....

One thing I have noticed that the prior 2 meetings these games started slow...3-0 Indy in Balt & 6-3 Indy the previous season...So while I like the under I do prefer the1st Half Under......

As for room....I honestly have Balt at best -2.5 here and NO at best -3.5 ...so really ist about equal.....the thing that I dislike that most dont is Indy has lost 4 away and Philly has won 4 away.....tough for each to make that 5...

One last thing is Billick I believe 0-4 against Dungy which obviously makes Dungy 4-0.....clearly alot has to do with teams but balt hasnt exactly been crap when they squared off
 
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Saturday Plays:

Colts +4 -110 {7units} ML {2units}
1st Half Under 21 -110 {2units}

Still thinking about Philly @ NO want to wait on this but have a strong lean towards NEW ORL as well as the over....
 
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