Conference Championships

I am small unit grinder type....typically 1-5 units but these special occassions....I tend to play what I like heavily hence 26 units on Dal last week...

I truly think this is Peyton's time as the Balt defense is not the unbeatable force it as portayed as. Coupled with the fact I feel thanks to public perception we have a line that is to fat...the only way to get me interested in balt is @ Pick( to answer an earlier question).....and thats interested.....cause it sets up a whole new expectation mentality..

We have a dilemma for the nite game. I dont understand why the line was set at 4/5...they could have IMO had even action at 3 so that signals to me they are selling false value with the number above three....

My main stumbling block is both teams like to strike quick....if the Saints do its puts them at a major advantage....Philly cant dink and dunk its way back rom a defecit. NY had there opportunity to put Philly away and they didnt , so not suprised that Philly won the game but Eagles couldnt even hold NY off at home......

Its more of the situation that Philly and even Seattle had to leave it all on the field at home last week . Now they have to travel and in both cases its not in there favor and they are playing rested opponents.....

Slowly the Saints look better to me. Not cause they are better but rather they are better suited to win this game....comments?
 
Well, I'm sort of heavily invested in the Ravens' ML so there's very little I can do there.

On the Eagles, though, I may be able to help a bit.

The Eagles were much more of a quick strike team with Donovan than they are with Garcia. With Garcia they're much more like the Saints, they're about sustaining drives. If you've watched NO you know that the highlights aside, when they get big plays it's the exception, not the norm. Brees is much more about taking what teams give him.

It's how they kept the ball for eight minutes to end the first Eagles/Saints game. If you see the highlights of that drive, you'd see that the Eagles' DBs weren't out of position, Brees just made exactly the right reads and exactly the right throws. I think he was 3/3 on third downs in that drive. It was ugly--you know, from my standpoint.

I think both of these teams will be lucky to have more than one big strike each in this game. I do think they can both get to 20, but I don't think anybody can get to 30. Very likely, not 27 either.

I think this actually could be a great game, and it feels like a three, four, at most seven point game either way.

I'm not so sure they would have had even action at -3, I think it might have been NO heavy. I also think that given NO's new-found love from the public, that they were going to get NO money anyway.

Also I think the reason this line was hit hard right off the open was due to people watching the Eagle game and not being impressed. Hell, I'm an Eagle fan and I wasn't impressed. They should have finished that team, it never should have come down to that final drive.

My card seems to be shaping up as:

Baltimore -3/ML
Philly ML

I also may look to tease the Eagles, as I really want them above 7.

I also like Chicago, but want to wait on the weather, hopefully that can drive the line down some.

I also wouldn't mind seeing SD around 3 and I might be in both overs tomorrow.
 
Sunday Glimpse :

Bears -8 -110 {2units} , -9 -110 {2units} waiting to place this

Of the games this is probably 3rd in my confidence rankings. I have struggled with the theory of giving Seattle a second chance they will take advantage of it. However I watched the Dallas game a few times this week on NFL Replay. The more I watch it the more I come away with how did Dallas blow that 4th quarter and I dont see how a QB could play worse then Tony Romo did. I truly mean that. Not to knock the guy but he missed so many passes it was amazing...forget the fact he lobbed the ball to TO on teh early 3rd down play when he had him open or Terry Glenn wise openwith no safety help...what about that awful pass he made on 3rd down while scarmbling to his right out of the pocket on 3rd and long which he lobbed over a wide open Craytons head? Dallas had 4th and 1 in the red zone twice and managed 3 pts in the 4th quarter..remember the bonehead playcall on 3rd and 1 at the 12 with Marion Barber..okay you get my point that Seattle played there asses off and left it all out on the field yet needed every Dallas folly possible to win by one.

Now they go to Seattle still with NO cornerbacks and most probably limited or No Darrell Jackson and DJ Hackett. Dallas maligned defense played well except for a handful of plays most of which resulted in silly holding penalities on 3rd down or missed tackle or two. The Bears are w/o Harris and Brown but it still a better DEF then what Dallas threw at them. Do you really think Shaun Alexander will be a factor? I said this is another thread here but does anyone realize how he doesnt play well against the NFC east defenses which CHI is like in many ways( dont tell em cover 2..more about hard hitting)...how did Shaun run @ TB..vs NYG early this year , vs Dal in the playoffs...go back to last season he didnt play well vs these teams NYG , Philly , Dallas Wash ...and now his OL is banged up unlike last year. The cold weather favors the Bears defense. You dont want those guys hitting you in the freezing cold. I truly dont believe that even Sea believed they could win last week.

For all the knocks on Grossman everytime he is called out he seems to bounce back. The Hawks have struggled against the run all season and Chi can do that...166allowed on grass and 137 on the road...Rex played horribly in the last game but it was meaningless literal last game of the season. The prior 3 games he was 5TDs and 0 Ints....he some solid WRs in Muhammad and Berrian(Bradley as well) along with Desmond Clark to exploit the weakened Seattle DEF..

The 1st meeting was one sided and I think Seattle is more hurt with WR and DB injuries then Chi losses....After losing last year I feel Chi is ready and focused....

As for line value I noticed that Seattle and STL were very similiar teams probably would say that on a neutral field its arguable that Seattle would be slight -1.5 favs(possibly PKem)....look at what Chi did in STL..? They went as 6 pt chalks and hung 42 on them.....these are very similiar NFC west teams...


So really I can say that I would expect anything less then -10 to present value....also remember SEA could be effected by the early start here......

I think the clock strikes midnite here for the Hawks.....


 
Here's my feel-

They are similar offenses but NO has firepower where Philly doesnt. I mean you had to be shocked to see Westbrook have 2 huge runs including a 48yder...we all know Reggie is capable of that everytime he touches it and well Colston and Devery Henderson are big play WR's...

Now with McNabb I think they are more evenly matched as you stated cause of the big play offense he is capable of and did execute vs them...Which tells me NO gameplan has to be get up quick. I think the only reason NO ever starts slow is cause of mistakes...they managed to go 30 or more in 6 of the final 8 not counting the last game...they had just 16 vs Cincy but 510 yards passing and 2 INT's in teh first half when they had the ball inside the Cincy 10....and they eneded the game on downs inside the 5...clearly they could have had 30 in that game as well...While I dont advocate doing this I now feel the Skins game should be tossed out the window and I am willing to do this cause Wash that day was play of the week knowing NO was in a bad spot with an inflated number. They got there shit together and trounced NYG..badly.....

While Payton's inexperience is a negative his familiarity with the NFC EAST becomes a plus.....I think what happens here is early on Philly was the better team and yet NO still find a wayto win....now with McNabb out , Sheppard Out and the intangibles for the Saints I think they are the slightily better team...if they played on a neutral field I would say NO is -2 or -3.....you figure with NO the players they have can offer more advice then Philly's ex-Saints can cause of the coaching change.....The intangibles being a rested NO team who didnt play last week , who didnt battle a divisional foe and now has to play on short rest....one team is off nearly 3 weeks compared to 5 days..?? One team trying to win 4 straight road games...Philly should have allowed 4 TDs to NY...and if NO is in the same spot they will get 4 IMO...basically 4 NY drives which went for 70 or better...

If you get down to it the way NO manhandled both NYG and Dal compared to Philly is what also makes the m attractive.....

now the line is -5.5 and I dont believe its high ...looking back on some things I had scribbled down...I had NO traveling to NYG as a PK and when Philly traveled to NYG it was basically +3...or in Philly -4...so for me anything -6.6 or lower seems like value....

I hate my thoughts changing so late but this is how I do feel now....to much to ask off Philly to win this game....I dont believe the Saints are the feel good story anymore then Philly is....I reallythink they could have opned this gams at say -3 and Chi at -7 and received the same money flows...but put themselves in harms ways from teh heavy hitters looking to attack...

Right now I feel NO gets 27-31 worst case and wins by 7-14....

Its not just last week but the prior NYG win , they game in Wash they almost gave away....the one team they clearly beat was a broken DALLAS squad....
 
Nut - you just listed the magic potion of peyton knowing how to beat the eagles def since he faced them for years (off cord of nyg and dallas).. he knows how to be effective against the eagles. i want philly to do well since i am a nfc east homer (dallas homer) but it just doesnt seem as if they can keep pace. if philly will use the spread off and run the ball this could be the demise. if this happens the over will not happen as was already discussed since both teams want to control the ball or it seems. this is just babble today as i can not seem to put my thougths into correct grammatical sentences. oh well. :)
 
I hate having a game correct and not maximizing!!! Thats consecutive weeks I pussed out on Colt Unders!

Saturday Plays:

Colts +4 -110 {6units} +6.00 ML +160 {1.5units} +2.40
1st Half Under 21 Even {2units} +2.00


Saints -5.5 -115 {4units} Over 48.5 -110 {2units}


Sunday Plays:

Chicago Bears -8 -110 {2units} -9 -110 {2units}

SD Chargers -4.5 (not in) {10units}
 
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SportsNut said:
Not sure how accurate this INFO is but it was on page 3 of the Monday Usa Today...

Strength of Victory = SOV
Strrength of Schedule = SOS

Colts : SOV .505 & SOS .500
Ravens : SOV .447 & SOS .461

Philly : SOV .450 & SOS .477
NO : SOV .425 & SOS .461

NE : SOV .469 & SOS .496
SD : SOV .424 & SOS .457

SEA: SOV .382 & SOS .453
CHI : SOV .404 & SOS .430

This gives us a window to see how strong these teams schedules were. Now as with any stat you canttake it for face value but I think reiterates a few things.

Indy is the only team with a SOV higher then its SOS. Which says the beat quality teams but lost to a few lesser teams. It may imply they play up or down to the level of the opponent. I think Balt's numbers show a consistency level. With Philly I think it does show that on paper Eagles are probably the better team but certainly not worse then equal. I think NE & SD backs up our thoughts...SA benefitted from an easy schedule. The last matchup well it shows that Seattle has no place being in the playoffs...which is something that you might want to think about before betting them....

so let me get this right... the bears beat 2 teams with a record over .500 and they have a .403 Strength of Schedule


i would throw these stats out the windo asap
 
SN, you make good points, as usual, but let's not get too far out there on talent. First off, I'm never surprised to see Westbrook break off 48 yard runs, because he does it all the time. Seriously, that he's not in the Pro Bowl this year, ugh, whatever.

What people are missing on Westbrook, either consiciously or not is that Westbrook, right now, is to the Eagles what Marshall Faulk was to the Rams in their prime. They get him the ball in space and he gets 15 to 20 yards. And if someone misses a tackle or if he makes a move, he can go sixty, easy. Brian Westbrook is what Reggie Bush wants to be even if he doesn't know it yet. Because Bush isn't big enough to be LT, but he is more than quick enough to be a Faulk/Westbrook-esque guy.

Furthermore, I like Colston, but without Horn, which it seems like NO is going to be, I think these two receiving corps are basically a wash. Copper, Colston, and Henderson vs. Stallworth, Reggie Brown, and Greg Lewis strikes me as even, and really, the Eagles have more experience in that crew. Also, let's not forget about LJ Smith. Nobody's had a matchup answer for him all year so I'm not sure why NO would this week--especially when Garcia, unlike McNabb, also seems to like to throw to Schobel as well. NO doesn't have that.

With Garcia, just like Brees, you've got a QB who spreads it around all over the place. That means the Saints' defense is facing a very different Eagles team than they faced the first time.

I really think this is going to be a great game. Unlike the Eagles last few games where it was going to be a situation of which QB played better and made fewer mistakes, I think this is a very team game. The team that can sustain drives wins. Even though both of these teams can strike quickly, I think it's the team that holds the ball and scores on long drives that wins the game.

Oh, also, you'll very likely know within the first few minutes if the Eagles will be in this this game. At least, I think I will. If they start the same way they started against the Giants last week, three and out, giving up a long drive, it's going to be a long, long, day. If they move the ball crisply for a few first downs, even if they don't get points, and they can get the Saints off the field quickly, the Eagles will have a great chance to win this thing.
 
Chaos....I have no clue of your points cause they reflect what you pointed out....

JoeP ....Love Westbrook as a RB and absolutely agree he is the Marshall Faulk of the Eagles. I didnt mean suprised the way it probably sounded. I do think its a rarity for me to see him explode like that twice versus a defense that is at least average...meant it as I was impressed but not sure he can duplicate it here. Which could be a problem cause those were 2 huge plays and momentum changers. Thats all not a talent comment.

I agree with WR corps but the advantage is Brees vs Garcia not in the talent of whose is catching it....agree on LJ Smith except that the TE is not what is going to beat NO here IMO....cause it lends to more methodical drives then quick strikes...which is fine unless they are trailing....

Basically we agree but due to the short turnaround off last week I think NO is just in a better situation..I dont think is game is being playing on so called even terms...the NFL the more I thoiught about it really fucked Philly here. There best bet is to hope NO comes out flat thanks to the BYE like it did versus Balt... The game I feel least comfortable with for sure....
 
Very poor job by Indy once they got good field position with play-calling...3straight runs inside the 10...thats BALT strength...and after a 7 yd play on 1st down stick to the pass....only 6-0 is exactly what Balt needed they could have been on the ropes at 10 or 14-0...
 
I agree bro...they have tried somewhat but the pass or run decisions just dont make sense to me...I am not sayng dont run the ball with Addai up the middle just dont do it every snap...last week they utilized Clark so well and the have 2nd and 3 at the 5 ...why try to sneak Addai in there? Okay nice job with the quick snap but guess what if Balt isnt engaged with an OL they are basically unblocked....

I did miss the drive after the fumble. I saw 7yd completion to Wayne....keep applying the pressure as you said we all know Rolle is the weak link....nope the obvious 2nd and short ydage run with a small back...

Then last possession same deal ...2nd down you run it up the gut...are they just setting Balt up?? Backed up I would make a 1st down a huge priority.....and now they just allowed Balt to get 3 back...

Would love a similiar drive to Indys first one that chewed clock....definite momentum change last few possessions....you have to take advantage of whatever opps you have against a good defense. To me its not Balt stopping them cause Indys playcalling is doing it for them.....strange to say the least...
 
SPorts I kind of disagree.. Hes tried to pass deep the last few times and nothing has been open
 
Thats what will happen if you want to strickly throw the ball.. Ed Reed is the best defensive player in the game.. Peyton will get knocked out of the game and throw a ton of picks
 
I am fine with that throw Dallas Clark didnt exactly get a chance to make a play on the ball thanks to some shoving...Ed is smooth though...
 
A little dissapointed i dont live in canada.. pinny had the ravens as a dog..

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>7:14</TD><TD class=c>1:38</TD><TD class=c>BAL 31</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>2:49</TD><TD class=c>0:38</TD><TD class=c>IND 20</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:45</TD><TD class=c>0:36</TD><TD class=c>IND 29</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>0</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
I just think the colts are soft.. The ravens offense is vastly underrated.. they will pound this defense and wear them out. Colts run d doesnt become great over night.. they are msierable on the road..
 
See this drive has little to do with football..its pure momentum...thanks to Indy not stomping on Balt early...the way to regain some momentum is hold them to three here..
 
That would help but you dont want to fall behind to the ravens. I think the play action will be open all day for them..
 
In some ways I agree. The Colts are a soft team..they are undersized and everything that goes with that.....

My feeling is you lose momentum and things go badly for ya...doesnt matter who the opponent is....

Lewis had some nice runs more cause the tide was turning the on field ability.....

When was balt's two best drives...when they started with great field posistion been that way all year long..no coincidence IMO.....
 
That'll help colts backers.. will be interesting to see what plays they call here
 
I would playaction on 1st down....you getting crushed if you try and run it...this is clark or Moorehead territory IMO...
 
This might be QUICK....nothing resembling a drive..A 1st down would be huge for a momentum swing


Might hope into the NBA forum for abit as I am looking at the schedule now...so dont think I am ignoring ya...
 
yep...

Thats such a huge play...you put points on the board after being backed up , you dont give balt field position and you get to kickoff...plus the Balt D walks away not feeling like they did there job...
 
Well that has to be on Peyton's shoulders...tough throw but he had a wide open target just had to lead him better inbounds...No one speaks about Moorehead but he can do just as much as Stokley given teh chance IMO...

Colts 9-3....@ Half..Just like the prior meetings....(3-0 & 6-3 Indy @ Half}

1st Half Under 21 Even {2units}WIN +2.00
 
Tough to not like the over 20 or whatever it is...part of me thinks they made it way to easy to take Balt -3 -110 and -6 +138...( yeah I am still looking @ Pinny lines cause they are sharp IMO..obviously cant act on them)

So I would say over only..but no value really in either side......effectively you get Indy @ -3 and I think they could have made Balt -4...so soft favs I dont like....
 
Yeah, those of us on the Ravens are kind of f**ked.

To get close to the line the Ravens are pretty much going to need to pitch a shutout in the second half.

I can't say I've been all that impressed with Indy, their defense, yes, but not so much their offense. I'm more disappointed by McNair.
 
Joe Public said:
Yeah, those of us on the Ravens are kind of f**ked.

To get close to the line the Ravens are pretty much going to need to pitch a shutout in the second half.

I can't say I've been all that impressed with Indy, their defense, yes, but not so much their offense. I'm more disappointed by McNair.

Hmmm....I thought it was odd that it was -6 +138 thats great value for a favorite...

I would agree Indys offense has not been impressive. Personally alot of the early drives were about bad playcalling IMO...all those Addai runs early I didnt like. I did say maybe Indy was setting them up and towards teh half it seemed liek Balt was leaving the middle of the field wide open..not that Indy took advantage...

To me that's the great difference in my approach...While Indys offense hasnt been impressive I cant say it was cause of the play of the Balt defense....it was more cause of what they were trying to do..

The Colts D has played well but I have been saying those numbers are false for awhile now...

Now we see the new Indy gameplan....dumpoffs to Addai and Dallas Clark...alot of game left!
 
that was a td goin the other way

damn peytons caught some breaks.. nice punt
 
I hate to say I havent realy cared for Peytons decision making and that is a credit to Balts pressure in some ways...on some throws he should know better though
 
This whole rush to the line crap was good the 1st time but retarded afterwards...but thats a good PK...rather then a punt IMO..
 
Congrats, SN.

I never thought Indy could get to 20, and I was right, but it's small consolation. One of my biggest losses on the season right here on this ML.

It happens, maybe I get some back with the Eagles' ML.
 
SportsNut said:
I hate having a game correct and not maximizing!!! Thats consecutive weeks I pussed out on Colt Unders!

Saturday Plays:

Colts +4 -110 {6units} +6.00 ML +160 {1.5units} +2.40
1st Half Under 21 Even {2units} +2.00


Saints -5.5 -115 {4units} Over 48.5 -110 {2units}


Sunday Plays:

Chicago Bears -8 -110 {2units} -9 -110 {2units}

SD Chargers -4.5 (not in) {10units}

Pretty sure thats how the Saints / Eagles plays will stay...
 
Thanks JP. Obviously I am sorry to hear that. Really not the time to recap that game. We can save that for the week...
 
SportsNut said:
Thanks JP. Obviously I am sorry to hear that. Really not the time to recap that game. We can save that for the week...


colts vs saints superbowl

what u think sports
 
NICE HIT COLTS BACKERS great info as always sportsnut great work. I appreciate it. BOL



wagering favors the prepared mind
 
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