Conference Championships
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a true american rags to rags story...
GREAT call Nut :cheers:
A
Austintx_05
Guest
abcs said:
Great Job Nut
Short on time...clearly I regret overthinking the No/Philly and Chi/Seattle games.....felt the lines were fat for reason and I was wrong.....
The late game:
Chargers -4.5 -105 {11units}
ML -180 {4units}
Under 47 -110 {5units} this is the highest total of the hoem season for SD...not the right opponent for that
Teaser SD +1.5 / Under 52 {4units}
ML Parlay SD -180 / Und 46 (pays 2 to 1){2units}
I dont have much time to talk about this. Simply this is a soft line IMO . The Chargers should probably closer to -6 here. Why? Lets remember that even going back to last year NE was catching 3 to Den. This Pats offense isnt as good and the defense especially with Harirson missing here is slightly worse...the key is SD is a much better team even with a young QB then DEN was. Now forgot last year...they Pats have some solid road wins but there was all dogs to alot of teams you would not have expected...basically there play at home was poor for them . So when they traveled their lines got abit fat and NE generally was off a abd perfomance..Now you get them off what looks like a sound home win but wasnt and takes away from there value when they travel. They caught Jax and Tenny at the tail end of there hot streaks. They were shutout by Miami...now okay you can say he has trouble in Miami but this is vastly different Dolphins club on both sides of the ball...Harrington and Sammy Morris beat them 21-0...NE is great at not beating themselves but they need to do more here.....especially since while agree the SD secondary is somewhat soft the Chargers D as a unit is vastily underrated.....
I am sure NE wants revenge for the loss at home last year to SD but IMO they dont have the personnel to do so...Even last year SD was only +4 in SD.....what I am saying is basically these teams were even strength last season...now they have seperated some...SD would surely be -3 fav on neutral field and NE after some tough losses would probably only bea PK at home...
lt as I pointed out somewhere earlier has ran all over NE past 2 meetings and so did some of there recent road opponents....for all the hype about young QB's Rivers is not a rookie and he did some amazing things late games when given the opportunity...Harrison will be greatly missed here...
The coaching angles are great to here but Bill has been defeated and outcoached in many games this year...especially the Indy won..think about NE have traveling cross country after a home win...now realzie every solid team who went to Foxboro played them tight..NYJ , Chi , Den , Indy....SD is one of the toughest places to play and I feel Marty learned early on this year Marty Ball doesnt cut it.....
Questions or commenst I will do my best to answer...BOL...
The late game:
Chargers -4.5 -105 {11units}
ML -180 {4units}
Under 47 -110 {5units} this is the highest total of the hoem season for SD...not the right opponent for that
Teaser SD +1.5 / Under 52 {4units}
ML Parlay SD -180 / Und 46 (pays 2 to 1){2units}
I dont have much time to talk about this. Simply this is a soft line IMO . The Chargers should probably closer to -6 here. Why? Lets remember that even going back to last year NE was catching 3 to Den. This Pats offense isnt as good and the defense especially with Harirson missing here is slightly worse...the key is SD is a much better team even with a young QB then DEN was. Now forgot last year...they Pats have some solid road wins but there was all dogs to alot of teams you would not have expected...basically there play at home was poor for them . So when they traveled their lines got abit fat and NE generally was off a abd perfomance..Now you get them off what looks like a sound home win but wasnt and takes away from there value when they travel. They caught Jax and Tenny at the tail end of there hot streaks. They were shutout by Miami...now okay you can say he has trouble in Miami but this is vastly different Dolphins club on both sides of the ball...Harrington and Sammy Morris beat them 21-0...NE is great at not beating themselves but they need to do more here.....especially since while agree the SD secondary is somewhat soft the Chargers D as a unit is vastily underrated.....
I am sure NE wants revenge for the loss at home last year to SD but IMO they dont have the personnel to do so...Even last year SD was only +4 in SD.....what I am saying is basically these teams were even strength last season...now they have seperated some...SD would surely be -3 fav on neutral field and NE after some tough losses would probably only bea PK at home...
lt as I pointed out somewhere earlier has ran all over NE past 2 meetings and so did some of there recent road opponents....for all the hype about young QB's Rivers is not a rookie and he did some amazing things late games when given the opportunity...Harrison will be greatly missed here...
The coaching angles are great to here but Bill has been defeated and outcoached in many games this year...especially the Indy won..think about NE have traveling cross country after a home win...now realzie every solid team who went to Foxboro played them tight..NYJ , Chi , Den , Indy....SD is one of the toughest places to play and I feel Marty learned early on this year Marty Ball doesnt cut it.....
Questions or commenst I will do my best to answer...BOL...
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A
Austintx_05
Guest
Need SD....best of luck to us....:shake:
antmagic219
Pretty much a regular
gl nut.
Just to note...speaking about old lines is just something to make one understand that NE isnt in a new role as dog where as Indy was..The Pats started declining last year and continued IMO this season. Also speaking about home perormance was away to understand that they had become overvalued.....easiest way to SEE that is look at there play in comparision to the spreads....they really were closer to 1-7 ATS @ home during the reg season...the Miami ATS win was an absolute gift from Harrington and Mare that day...it was something like a couple missed FGS where Mare slipped and a bad Harrington INT deep in NE territory in what was his 1st game. All of NE 20 pts came very short fields.....So teams like Buffalo , Det as well as what I mentioned earlier gave them games...on the road wins in Cincy , Jax and Tenn really came down to better 4th Q play...Cincy had a couple of turnovers in the 4th , Tenny was down only a FG to start the 4th....the 2 road teams they truly beat on where GB and Minny....not impressive..
If there wasnt the NE mystic that has developed rightfully so but is based on past occurences this line would be at least -6 or -7....
SD basically didnt play many quality teams at home but the 4 better ones they played all lost by 10 or more..... A good indicator of how strong this SD team is the fact they were dogged only 3 times this year.....all less then FG's.....
If there wasnt the NE mystic that has developed rightfully so but is based on past occurences this line would be at least -6 or -7....
SD basically didnt play many quality teams at home but the 4 better ones they played all lost by 10 or more..... A good indicator of how strong this SD team is the fact they were dogged only 3 times this year.....all less then FG's.....
The late game:
Chargers -4.5 -105 {11units}
ML -180 {4units}
Under 47 -110 {5units}
This is the highest total of the home season for SD...not the right opponent for that
Teaser SD +1.5 / Under 52 {4units}
ML Parlay SD -180 / Und 46 (pays 2 to 1){2units}
Expect 26-17.....dont think NE tops 17....
2nd H hedges:
Over 23 -110 {2units} to reduce my risk on the Under to 3 units...since they stopped playing D and I have teaser and parlays with the Under....
Pats +2 -110 {1unit} damn Pinny has +2.5 !
Looking at the fact NE is -4 +310...way to much value IMO...seems like they are begging you to take that....
Chargers -4.5 -105 {11units}
ML -180 {4units}
Under 47 -110 {5units}
This is the highest total of the home season for SD...not the right opponent for that
Teaser SD +1.5 / Under 52 {4units}
ML Parlay SD -180 / Und 46 (pays 2 to 1){2units}
Expect 26-17.....dont think NE tops 17....
2nd H hedges:
Over 23 -110 {2units} to reduce my risk on the Under to 3 units...since they stopped playing D and I have teaser and parlays with the Under....
Pats +2 -110 {1unit} damn Pinny has +2.5 !
Looking at the fact NE is -4 +310...way to much value IMO...seems like they are begging you to take that....
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I give up after that.....NE is pathetic being out played all day long and you get a silly punt fumble , dropped INT , then a 15 yd penalty when you sack them on 3rd and long....probably long FG attempt that I doubt they hit....
It doesnt even matter....its just disgusting to watch....
It doesnt even matter....its just disgusting to watch....
Uhmmm do the Chargers not have LT and turner....I just cant figure out why they continue to pass....guess Marty after burying Marty Ball should have realize they havent stopped the ground game all day.....
3rd and 17 at the NE 28 why are you passing?? The only thing that hurts is sack or turnover..give it to LT worst case your kicking a s 42 yd FG....
2nd and 1 at the NE 39 why pass..??
3rd and 17 at the NE 28 why are you passing?? The only thing that hurts is sack or turnover..give it to LT worst case your kicking a s 42 yd FG....
2nd and 1 at the NE 39 why pass..??
Seriously can NE get any better luck...
I really cant believe the undisciplined approached by SD...personal foul on the XP.... after an already stupid , potentially crushing penalty..
just go down! after a 4th down INT....
Tom Brady get serious ! the defense of SD has been on the field for how many plays in the 4th q...?? Reality.. any Qb could make a play if he gets 1000 tries versus a tired defense....
I really cant believe the undisciplined approached by SD...personal foul on the XP.... after an already stupid , potentially crushing penalty..
just go down! after a 4th down INT....
Tom Brady get serious ! the defense of SD has been on the field for how many plays in the 4th q...?? Reality.. any Qb could make a play if he gets 1000 tries versus a tired defense....
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luvthemcowboys
Pretty much a regular
I agree tough break. Sd had it in the bag just RUN but no had to be dumb. LT should be mad as hell
sirwinzalot
The wisdom of Towlie
That was a bitter loss for me too Sportsnut. People can talk all they want about how the Pats were easy money, this and that. The Chargers just self destructed and failed to take advantages of opportunities. I hate when a team beats itself. The Chargers, at a minimum, should have won this game, and should have covered. They didn't I will move on. Liking the Bears and the Over in the Pats/Colts game. Any thoughts Sportsnut?
If anyone said the Pats were easy they need a smack up side the head. If it wasnt for SD allowing NE to comeback they would have been embarrassed in that game. The Pats didnt even come close to beating SD that day...not even close...Brady looked great throwing picks in crucial situations... oh wait he got a second chance just about every time and then did something...what NFL QB cant take advantage of a defense on teh field for longer then it should be? All NE backers should consider themselves very lucky and yes lucky pays better then being talented...I would have laughed if I saw anyone say NE was easy...SD self destructed for reasons God only knows...actually I know it was there over confident defense who didnt realize 15 yd penalties hurt and 4th down INTs are useless...Its actually embarassing NE is in the AFC Championship looking how they played....
So is it any suprise that I went Colts ML -160 {8units} , Colts -3 -120 {12units} ....if Indy cant beat this watered down version of NE they will never do it......Thats all this comes down to who is gonna win.....NE most quality win of the season came last week and that was one of the more embarrassing performances I have seen from winnning team since TB pulled off those home upsets earlier this year...NE could not move the ball on offense and SD offensive gameplan was retarded....allowing Rivers to pass when they just had to run LT who couldnt be stopped..
Not crazy about a total and really havent thought about it to be honest....Indy should score 24 + w/o much effeciency...so really worst case I am thinking 24-17....
The other game Bears -2 -111 {8units}....I think Dome teams in Title games outdoors are 0-9.....to me simply put this teams are very equal at the moment....for all the talk about the Bears D sliding they sure shutdown Seattle when it counted...and really Sea used 2 short fields to get 14 points and I dont expect NO defense to play any better then Sea did which was IMO suprisingly good.....
Home teams that just need to win in title games seems like value to me...NO is happy to be there and Chi expected to be there...I dont mean that as literal as it sounds but I sam saying Chi goal was to get to this game where NO is playing on borrowed time....
The key here will be how the cold and conditions erase the Saints speed advantages....a big plus could be Gould kicking versus Carney....bears are about big plays on offense and that has been NO D weakness...
I think this will be a smash mouth game that ends around the total 24-20 ,23-20 ,24 -17....
So basically no total plays of now.....
Just the home teams bigs......at this time of the year with spreads this low its simple who is going to win...who is going to NOT lose the game...
BOL all
So is it any suprise that I went Colts ML -160 {8units} , Colts -3 -120 {12units} ....if Indy cant beat this watered down version of NE they will never do it......Thats all this comes down to who is gonna win.....NE most quality win of the season came last week and that was one of the more embarrassing performances I have seen from winnning team since TB pulled off those home upsets earlier this year...NE could not move the ball on offense and SD offensive gameplan was retarded....allowing Rivers to pass when they just had to run LT who couldnt be stopped..
Not crazy about a total and really havent thought about it to be honest....Indy should score 24 + w/o much effeciency...so really worst case I am thinking 24-17....
The other game Bears -2 -111 {8units}....I think Dome teams in Title games outdoors are 0-9.....to me simply put this teams are very equal at the moment....for all the talk about the Bears D sliding they sure shutdown Seattle when it counted...and really Sea used 2 short fields to get 14 points and I dont expect NO defense to play any better then Sea did which was IMO suprisingly good.....
Home teams that just need to win in title games seems like value to me...NO is happy to be there and Chi expected to be there...I dont mean that as literal as it sounds but I sam saying Chi goal was to get to this game where NO is playing on borrowed time....
The key here will be how the cold and conditions erase the Saints speed advantages....a big plus could be Gould kicking versus Carney....bears are about big plays on offense and that has been NO D weakness...
I think this will be a smash mouth game that ends around the total 24-20 ,23-20 ,24 -17....
So basically no total plays of now.....
Just the home teams bigs......at this time of the year with spreads this low its simple who is going to win...who is going to NOT lose the game...
BOL all
BlitzBandit
Friend of CTG
SportsNut said:
I felt the exact same way about the SD game.. they had about 10 different ways to just finish it and close out the win and maybe one or two ways to lose it.. looks like we know which way they chose... just pathetic...
by the way.. agree with the bears and as much as I like the Colts and believe strongly they could and should win, I am also leaning NE...
this reminds me of the Super Bowl last season... I jumped out of the gates saying.. the hell with it.. I've been against PIT all playoffs long and it cost me.. so I am taking them even though I think SEA is the better team.. then mid-week I said SCREW IT again.. and said.. I gotta go with whats right.. then I went with all the reasons why SEA would win.. then there it went.. PIT won... and screwed me from wild card weekend all the way to the bowl... I also think NE is a bit overrated and Indy should win, but it was just that same gut inside that told me PIT was going to end up winning... that's why even though I took SD last week, I felt like I regretted it right after I made the bet.
by the way.. great call on Indy over Baltimore last weekend... I do think BAL did ok defensively, but I don't think either team was playing too good offensively... oh well.. that's how things go... haha.
spanishshark
Youngest guy on the forum
SportsNut wrote:
So is it any suprise that I went Colts ML -160 {8units} , Colts -3 -120 {12units} ....if Indy cant beat this watered down version of NE they will never do it......Thats all this comes down to who is gonna win.....NE most quality win of the season came last week and that was one of the more embarrassing performances I have seen from winnning team since TB pulled off those home upsets earlier this year...NE could not move the ball on offense and SD offensive gameplan was retarded....allowing Rivers to pass when they just had to run LT who couldnt be stopped..
I couldnt agree with you more SportsNut...Indy wins this one.:wacka wacka:
So is it any suprise that I went Colts ML -160 {8units} , Colts -3 -120 {12units} ....if Indy cant beat this watered down version of NE they will never do it......Thats all this comes down to who is gonna win.....NE most quality win of the season came last week and that was one of the more embarrassing performances I have seen from winnning team since TB pulled off those home upsets earlier this year...NE could not move the ball on offense and SD offensive gameplan was retarded....allowing Rivers to pass when they just had to run LT who couldnt be stopped..
I couldnt agree with you more SportsNut...Indy wins this one.:wacka wacka:
texasfight
Karl Marx sucks balls
SportsNut, I agree with you here, my friend. I was on the Pats and the points last week and consider the winning result found money.
I think you have used the most apt description here in calling this a "watered down" version of the Pats. Couple that with this being possibly the defining moment in Peyton Manning's career at home in the RCA dome at night, and I think you have a perfect storm of elements that will lead to an absolute horsefucking.
This will be my biggest NFL play of the year.
I think you have used the most apt description here in calling this a "watered down" version of the Pats. Couple that with this being possibly the defining moment in Peyton Manning's career at home in the RCA dome at night, and I think you have a perfect storm of elements that will lead to an absolute horsefucking.
This will be my biggest NFL play of the year.
antmagic219
Pretty much a regular
gl nut im on the COLTS(VERY LARGE)
COLTS WIN THIS BY 10
COLTS WIN THIS BY 10
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
good health today, buddy.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Two nice wins today buddy.
antmagic219
Pretty much a regular
congrats nut as we both cash largest play for me ever
good health BOL
wagering favors the prepared mind
good health BOL
wagering favors the prepared mind
Thanks guys....I was recovering from a nite @ Crobar all day. Hopefully I didnt offend anyone with my commentary on last weeks game ..I didnt mean to imply anything other then saying NE beat SD was really outrageous. NE deserved to cash last week cause SD did everything possible to fall apart in thta game...and Marty should go after that loss. Its disgusting with how well his defense played most of the game to not have ran over NE.....Really a shame that it wasnt SD - Indy...dont get me wrong a great game here and I have to say that there was some doubt in mind watching it unfold...NE fumbling and still getting the TD....I was wondering what four leaf clover they had...okay Manning mad a bad decision on the pick 6 but did the fact he made a mistake had to have cost him 7 points...it just always seemed everything went NE way...I really am not a fanof anyone but did my heart bleed for LT last week....the head Coach should be fired IMO cause he [layers were undisciplined and the OC should have been fired for som eof the worst play calling I have seen....The way the 4th quarter unfolded NE backers deserved to get paid....its just that any sort of decent four quarters of football had SD advancing.....
Feeling all 32 years trying to enjoy the games wasnt that much fun....I often feel asleep trying to watch the games and missed some key plays....I really never was concerned Chi would lose...What Payton was thinking by not praticing in the cold weather leaves me confused..I understand you may not believe its a factor in your teams play but why leave the question open for debate?? All he did was set himself up to be second guessed...My feeling were you see Dome teams 0-9 in Championship history and you know your playing in 25 degrees do the best to prepare your team...that tough guy attitude backfired...I have to say the key to my decision was simple..Grossman played fairly well againt Seattle. For all the shit I talked about Seattles D they impressed me that game so I felt he played well against a defense that was confident and played well. Basically NO DEF would not being putting forward a better effort on D then Seattle had. On the Bears side they had IMO gotten that swagger back on defense and luckily I was correct in that...NO was a good team but like I said this was Chi mission. I felt the Saints at times looked defeated at times before it got out of hand. Which I attribute to the Saints being te suprise team and not really in many ways expecting to be there from Day 1 , which is what makes the Patriots so dangerous
As for the late game well its obvious I had alot at stake but you have to feel for anyone on NE. They Colts only covered the last 59 seconds of the game...thats rough....at the end of the day for me I can only say the reason I bet Indy was simple...the Patriots IMO didnt deserve to be in the AFC title game and this was the weakest version of NE especially with Harrison injured. The Colts to be where slightily better on paper and falling back on the situation it was now or never for Manning and the Colts.....So after 60minutes my decision makiing looked sound but 59 of that I didnt look so smart.....
What an odd SuperBowl to have two teams out of there element...cold weather Chicago in Miami and a Dome team in Miami....
I hope everyone had a successful day..... Really could Manning have exercised Tom Brady and his demons any other way? Just like my Yankees losing to Boston up 3-0...such a story needed that fairy tale ending...Not to knock Brady but really he doesnt have many WRs but he didnt make any plays the past 2 weeks...the thing he did vs SD any QB given 2nd and 3rd chances could have done..it was great to watch Brady ascend over the seasons but his legacy needed a drift back down to reality....very good QB but all those picks in key spots should show he is not Superman.
Looking forward to the SuperBowl Discussion....
Feeling all 32 years trying to enjoy the games wasnt that much fun....I often feel asleep trying to watch the games and missed some key plays....I really never was concerned Chi would lose...What Payton was thinking by not praticing in the cold weather leaves me confused..I understand you may not believe its a factor in your teams play but why leave the question open for debate?? All he did was set himself up to be second guessed...My feeling were you see Dome teams 0-9 in Championship history and you know your playing in 25 degrees do the best to prepare your team...that tough guy attitude backfired...I have to say the key to my decision was simple..Grossman played fairly well againt Seattle. For all the shit I talked about Seattles D they impressed me that game so I felt he played well against a defense that was confident and played well. Basically NO DEF would not being putting forward a better effort on D then Seattle had. On the Bears side they had IMO gotten that swagger back on defense and luckily I was correct in that...NO was a good team but like I said this was Chi mission. I felt the Saints at times looked defeated at times before it got out of hand. Which I attribute to the Saints being te suprise team and not really in many ways expecting to be there from Day 1 , which is what makes the Patriots so dangerous
As for the late game well its obvious I had alot at stake but you have to feel for anyone on NE. They Colts only covered the last 59 seconds of the game...thats rough....at the end of the day for me I can only say the reason I bet Indy was simple...the Patriots IMO didnt deserve to be in the AFC title game and this was the weakest version of NE especially with Harrison injured. The Colts to be where slightily better on paper and falling back on the situation it was now or never for Manning and the Colts.....So after 60minutes my decision makiing looked sound but 59 of that I didnt look so smart.....
What an odd SuperBowl to have two teams out of there element...cold weather Chicago in Miami and a Dome team in Miami....
I hope everyone had a successful day..... Really could Manning have exercised Tom Brady and his demons any other way? Just like my Yankees losing to Boston up 3-0...such a story needed that fairy tale ending...Not to knock Brady but really he doesnt have many WRs but he didnt make any plays the past 2 weeks...the thing he did vs SD any QB given 2nd and 3rd chances could have done..it was great to watch Brady ascend over the seasons but his legacy needed a drift back down to reality....very good QB but all those picks in key spots should show he is not Superman.
Looking forward to the SuperBowl Discussion....
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