Cleveland's going to win Game Three, right?

[Joe Public]

So I watched a combined 60 seconds of the game tonight, checking the score before half, in the third, then at the end.

I say that just so you know that I have no idea how this thing went, so maybe I'm way off.

But I watched, I believe, enough of Game One to get the feeling this series was very much like the SA/Utah series.

And now, as someone sitting on SA to win in 5 and SA to win in 6, I like the spot, but I just want to make sure that everybody who actually did watch a game here thinks Cleveland can win a game in this series still.

I'm going on the Iverson Principle, which is, no matter how overmatched he is in a series, a guy like AI (or KG, or Kobe, or LeBron) can carry his team to at least one victory in a seven game series.

I don't need to be worried here, right?

 

[bluemyboy]

San Antonio absolutely owned Cleveland up to a point in both games.... but after SA is up by alot they let it slip both games back into single digits only to win and cover. They controlled these games and at no point did I think that Cleveland had even a remote chance in either game. (even when cle had the lead in gm 1 2Q briefly)

yet I will still take Cle ATS @ home in the 3rd game.... but have no idea how they are going to cover...

 

[HUNT]

I hardly watched any of it either but I'd be worried that the cavs might get swept, they seem overmatched in every facet of the game so far....but Dallas was up 2-0 last year I believe and Detroit was up 2-0 in the ECF..anything can happen.

 

[Joe Public]

Well, we knew they were going to be overmatched.

And I do think that this is one of those spots where they do have everything going for them in Game Three. At least motivation-wise. And I also think that, just like the Utah series, one of these times the Spurs won't get up by enough and Cleveland will come all the way back and have a chance to win.

But any time you see a team get dominated like this you have to wonder, just as you are right now Hunt, are they going to get swept?

 

[bluemyboy]

line has moved from 1.5 to 2 already at Pin.

 

[Joe Public]

Yikes, home dogs, eh?

 

[HUNT]

I know I stated the obvious above but there really is no other way to explain it I guess.

 

[Joe Public]

You did, but let's all remember, you actually bet the Cavs to win the ECFs this year. So when you, who had that, start wondering if they can even take a game in this series, I feel like I'm in good company.

Which isn't to say I wouldn't feel better if Fondy was in this 'company,' but that mostly has to do with Joe not wanting to go to Arby's alone.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I'll leave either side alone and be happy if CLE wins, since I dont see the Spurs losing 2 straight in this series, therefore such a result would set up my game 4 bet.

 

[HUNT]

LOL JP!

 

[Satyr]

Cleveland are no match for the Spurs. First two games have put that on display clearly I think. But I'm not sure if I would back the Spurs in game 3, they could become a bit complacent, since I believe they have 3 match points now and don't have to take the first one.


The series is over already, but I think Spurs win only the middle one in Ohio, no need to sweep or anything.

So I'm looking at Cavs +2.

 

[bluemyboy]

line is 1.5 now where it is out. Tough to tell early on what it will ultimately do. I'll wait. if it looks like it will drop under 1 then I'll take it then, if not I'll be waiting for 2.5 or maybe even 2. we'll see.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

I just wouldn't feel confident betting on a team that is clearly overmatched in the NBA Finals, who knows, the Spurs might actually go for the kill, I know that sounds crazy since teams love laying off when they're up like this. I just don't think you can count on that in the Finals as much as, say, the first round. This will be a no play or a play on the better team for me.

 

[bluemyboy]

I see some twos still with -110 juice..... moving up looks like.

I am not sure I would trade a low vig +1.5 for a +2 -110 but it is better then a +1.5 -110. will continue to watch the lines.

 

[Joe Public]

The points, in my opinion, are irrelevant in this game. Get the best ML you can on the Cavs if you're going to play 'em.

 

[bluemyboy]

the slow giant (SIA) moves its juice to +1.5 -105. they will sit there for some time or move to 2. they move slower then a snail.

 

[Joe Public]

I know I said I was done with the NBA, but if I can get +120 or so I'll probably take a shot on Cleveland.

 

[Joe Public]

Of course, with seven days between every game in the Finals, I reserve the right to change my mind at least three times before this game actually tips.

 

[bluemyboy]

I just dont trust Cleveland to win the game, and I am blindly betting Cleveland in this situation despite what I really think will happen based on how I am betting the playoffs in general, so I guess what I am hoping for is a SA win with Cle backdooring..... although Joe, I hope Cle wins SU... that would be nice too in terms of my bet and extending the series.

 

[Joe Public]

My problem there, Blue, is that two points is generally not enough to backdoor.

You basically need either SA to hit a game winner, Cleveland to miss a game winner, or Cleveland to hit a three at the buzzer. The percentages feel very small to me.

Also, this game means nothing if Cleveland loses. If they're down by four or five with two seconds to go and they're in-bounding the ball at the other end of the court, they're just as likely to dribble it out and take the loss as they are to try for that backdoor.

This game only means something if Cleveland wins it, and I'd say their chances of winning this game are better than a backdoor cover in such a small window. If the line was four or five, I'd be onboard with the points.

As it is, it's either the ML or nothing for me.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Yahoo Poll Results

How many games will the Cavaliers win in Cleveland?

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD class=choice>3</TD><TD class=bar>

</TD><TD class=pct>14%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=choice>2</TD><TD class=bar>

</TD><TD class=pct>17%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=choice>1</TD><TD class=bar>

</TD><TD class=pct>41%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=choice>0</TD><TD class=bar>

</TD><TD class=pct>28%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>61207 Total Votes

A sampling of the real public

 

[bluemyboy]

BC.... I like that sort of stuff.... powerful is the poll on the offline. This is not neccesarily that case, but polls on ESPN/Yahoo imo can be more powerful in some cases then having wagerline/SI/whatever. but that is for another day.

Question at hand: do I take +2 at SIA now....... my best other out is 1.5 -107 which I would not take over the 2. I am not expecting to get reduced vig on 2 unless a couple books go to 2.5 and then it would not be worth it imo to get the low vig 2 instead of the 2.5

early action is clearly on SA.... but seems like 1.5 is that magic number. Pin looks like it could go to 2.0 as they are shading the 2.5 the most they have yet with -107 juice on SA..... I think even with the way the action looks like it will play out 2.5 might be asking just a little too much. I am always worried because it seems with public underdogs alot of times you get your best line in the last hour before tip. I think I will end up taking it, but anyone really think this will climb to 2.5? thanks.... no rush SIA should have this up all night imo.... slow asses.