Rex here's Mike D's take on the Derby.
Here is my take for the Derby:
CD Race 10 Kentucky Derby G1 (6:04 et)
#6 Z Fortune 15/1
#10 Colonel John 4/1
#20 Big Brown 3/1
#4 Court Vision 20/1
#19 Gayego 15/1
#15 Adriano 30/1
#12 Smooth Air 20/1
Analysis: #6 Z Fortune is coming off a solid effort last out in the G2 Arkansas Derby and is one of just four in here that earned a triple digit Beyer in their last Derby prep. The colt bobbled slightly coming out of the gate and raced wide much of the trip, unable to get to the winner #10 Gayego. The colt won his first three starts including a G3 going a mile at Fair Grounds and appears to be heading in the right direction form wise. He has enough pedigree to get the distance. He is by Siphon, who won the '96 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) and in '97 won the Santa Anita 'Cap (G1). His mare Fortunate Faith was a G2 winner at nine furlongs as a two year old. Asmussen figures to have learned a thing or two with Curlin, who was third in last year's Derby. Drew a better post than he did last out at Oaklawn and just needs a good trip from mid pack under Albarado. With barn having #6 Pyro in here, our top pick should get overlooked at the windows.
#10 Colonel John has not missed landing in the exacta in his six career starts and is coming off a career best when winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last out. The colt has raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces in his six-race career and will try the real stuff for the first time here. If his bullet work over the Churchill Downs main track on 4/27 (five furlongs in :57.4) is any indication, he can handle dirt. He is by BC Classic champ Tiznow out of the mare Sweet Damsel, who won on dirt routing twice and was a three-time turf winner. The colt is in good hands with Harty, a former top assistant to Bob Baffert. Has a good foundation as a two year old and looks primed for a good effort here in his third start as a three year old.
#20 Big Brown is trying to do something Curlin could not do last year and that's win the Derby off three career starts. He went gate to wire for a very impressive victory last out in the Florida Derby (G1). The colt draws a tough post with speed drawn just to his inside. Then last horse to win the Derby off just three career starts was Regret back in 1915. Dutrow has been showing extreme confidence in his horse this week and the colt does own the top last out speed fig. The main question mark is what price we would have to settle on to back this guy for the top spot, and its likely going to be too short.
#4 Court Vision made a good late rally to finish third last out in the Wood (G1) behind #2 Tale of Ekati. They came home slow in the stretch in the Wood and the colt got a good pace set up to check in third, beaten 1 3/4 lengths. Mott adds blinkers to the mix here and I still don't think we have seen the best out of this colt, who has hovered near the top of my Derby List most of the spring. He is going to be running late, and likely is going to be a generous price.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 6,10 / 4,6,10,19,20
TRI: 6,10 / 4,6,10,20 / 4,6,9,10,12,15,16,19,20
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