OK, some crystalized thoughts on how these horses can run their best race. First I’ll note the weather looks very good, and in the Derby points era a fast track has meant fairly formful races, with maybe one outlier in the top four. POST MORTEM: Top four ended up being the 6th, 8th, 3rd and 1st betting choices. So an outlier and a half....
1. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6/1 – Inside post not the death knell it used to be with the new 20 horse gate. Was never expected to be near the front, so Irad will get him in a comfortable spot mid-pack, saving ground on the rail, setting up for an extended move on the far turn, which is basically the move he made in the FL Derby. Is also a good stretch runner, must use 2-4, maybe for the win too if you like. Laid back to 17th at the start, improved from 15th to 9th in the last quarter mile. Just left with too much to do. Should be a player down the road.
2. Like the King (Wesley Ward/Drayden Van Dyke) 50/1 – Needs to make the leap from all-weather to Churchill like Animal Kingdom did. Looking to settle in top half of field, save ground, get going on the far turn and run his ass off. Numbers-wise not good enough. Pass. Bumped with #3 at the start, which set them both back, made the backstretch in 13th, did a middle move to 9th then faded.
3. Brooklyn Strong (Danny Velasquez/Umberto Rispoli) 50/1 – Hoping 2nd off the layoff boosts his numbers back closer to his Remsen run, and hoping his slop form translates to the cuppy Churchill dirt. Has the tactical speed hit the backstretch 6th or 7th, has good turn times to make a move and be in a great position for the stretch. Don’t think he’s a winner but he’s a sneaky use in the exotics. Bumped with #2 & #5 at the start, which killed his momentum, made the turn in 15th, ran three wide both turns and finished right where he started. Can't tell anything from this race.
4. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen) 50/1 – Stone cold closer figures to be 17-20th on the back stretch. Needs a pace meltdown to be able to pick off horses late. I think he’ll be left with too much to do for his limited talent level. Pass. Opened dead last, gained ground last 3/4 mile all the way to 7th. No pace meltdown.
5. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher/Corey Lanerie) 50/1 – Hoping to make a leap in his fourth start, has mid-pack early speed so he’ll need to work out a better trip than he had in the Jeff Ruby and swing off the turn with momentum. A little too green for my liking. Pass. Bumped with #3 as well but still got to the far turn in 8th, looked like he might move up but faded a bit the last 1/4 mile. Pletcher will get him in some good spots this year.
6. O Besos (Greg Foley/Marcelino Pedroza) 20/1 – Another closer who will look to save ground early running in the back third of the field, then needs a fast paced to allow him to pass horses. Ran wide in his two turn races so far, so if he can take the kickback and save ground he might have something left in the tank late. Will use lightly in the 3&4 spots in exotics. Showed more early speed than I thought, made the turn in 12th, closed with purpose late. Good race for him.
7. Mandaloun (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) 15/1 – Best hope is that he blew himself out a bit with his Risen Star win and now could run back to it. If he does he will be in the top third of the field heading to the backstretch, and will make a far turn move into the top 3 and run his ass off from there. 15/1 odds seem a little low considering his LA Derby egg, he could finish anywhere from a game 2nd to a fading 15th. Has looked good on the track this week, so I’ll probably sneak him into some tri and super tickets. Game 2nd it is. Broke well right behind #8 and tracked him the whole way. Thought he might go by. Should get a lot of action rest of year.
8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 15/1 – Baffert…..a certain magic lingers in the very name….Baffert wins with front running horses. Johnny V allowed Life is Good and Rock Your World to get the lead early and Medina Spirit couldn’t close the gap. It’s Baffert’s only horse this year, he’ll be flying early. The draw leaves him pressers and closers on his left, so the incentive is there to blast out, clear the slower horses and grab control from the rail. Then we’ll see. He either gets brave and wires the field or he tires himself and the rest of the vanguard, leaving Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Hot Rod Charlie and others to take over on the far turn. My money will be on the latter, for the most part. He got very brave! And most of my money was against, although I did sneak in a late bet on him when I saw Baffert right before the race. Baffert is 6-0 bringing Derby winners to Pimlico.
9. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill/Flavien Prat) 8/1 – Not the greatest out of the gate but with enough tactical speed to sit in the top third of the field. No reason to think he can’t be right there all the way to the far turn, then we’ll see if he’s got enough in the tank to make a move. His turn times are in the bottom half of the field, so he might need to be even closer to the front early to compensate for it. His dam sire was more a miler type, so he might just flatten out late. Will sprinkle in underneath but I like others better for the win. Ran a really good race, hit the turn in 5th, bided his time and had his chance at the end. Good horse.
10. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) 20/1 – Has never passed a horse in the stretch and only two in the far turn, so he really needs to blast off early to have a shot. Not as fast as Rock Your World and Medina Spirit, so that’s a tall order. Loses lengths in all but one race he’s ever run, if he’s need on the lead I think he finishes off the board. If he somehow makes it the first 9 furlongs in 1st or 2nd, he could hold on for a piece. I think the former is more likely. Bumped with #11 and found himself in an unusual spot, midpack. Mike Smith didn't panic and actually had him passing horses late to finish 6th. A real good learning experience for the colt.
11. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20/1 – Figures to be just outside the top ten heading to the backstretch, his 2nd call numbers are slower than most of the other early pressers. Will be gearing up for a big run the last 3/8ths similar to his Wood effort. Water gets a bit deeper here though. Not a fan. Bumped with #10 then got rank, really didn't run much after that finishing next to last. A lot of people thought he was the most interesting horse coming out of the Wood. They'll be crossing this race out on the PPs.
12. Helium (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 50/1 – Has the tactical speed to be in the top half of the field into the backstretch, then would look to make a move on the far turn. Has led each of the three races coming into the stretch and maintained or widened his lead in all of them. Still improving, but a bit raw yet with only 3 races under his belt. By comparison, Justify had three races with speed figures of 100, 104 and 114. Helium’s are 84, 86 and 93. So the brilliance isn’t there. Will probably pass. Broke well, sat near the front on the backstretch, but faded a bit in the last 1/4. Not a bad race for him based on his inexperience.
13. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver/Rafael Bejarano) 50/1 – Comfortable sitting back and making one run, will likely start out 15th or worse. Has shown ability to make a nice move on the far turn and use the momentum to carry him to the wire, so that’s the likely plan for Saturday. The question is will there be enough pace? In the quicker paced Sam Davis and Tampa Derby, he closed to within a length of the winner. In the slower paced Bluegrass he had no answer as Essential Quality and Highly Motivated ran away late. Has a chance at finishing 3rd or 4th and will use accordingly. Started out 16th but never saved any ground, going four wide in the first turn. That might've blunted his closing kick. Ran to his odds.
14. Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) 2/1 – Has enough tactical speed to be in sight of the leaders on the backstreet, has shown great moves on the far turn and is a tenacious horse down the stretch. Rinse and repeat. Must use. Ran his race basically as I noted. He was four wide in the turn so he actually ran the furthest of the top four. As many noted beforehand, he was the best horse but not that much better than the rest. Early bumps with #15 and his wide trip were too much to overcome. Will be heard from in future races.
15. Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) 5/1 – a repeat of the SA Derby would see him go to the lead and try to win from the front, which is possible, although in his two turn turf win he rated just behind the leader and made his move in the stretch, so he’s versatile. Starting so far outside of Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon I could see him rating in the 3 path just behind those two. Definitely more polished than Helium but history is still against him with the lack of experience. Need to use a bit. Had an awful trip. Broke a step slow, then got bumped around by #14 and #17, then was hung out 5 wide on the turn, then stayed wide the rest of the race. Never had a chance.
16. King Fury (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20/1 – His Lexington win was a massive improvement over the other five races in his career, won with a ground saving rail trip on a sloppy track. Has decent tactical speed so he might try to settle in mid-pack, and try to move up early on the far turn, but he’s probably stuck going wide which will cost him. Pass.
17. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 10/1 – Has plenty of early speed to get into the top third of the field heading into the far turn, although he’ll be 2nd or 3rd path. Has the best turn time numbers in the field, so I expect him to be no worse than 3rd by the top of the stretch, and from there he’s generally been a willing finisher. At his morning line of 10/1 he’s my top pick. Bumped with #15 and then looked to save ground which left him 9th at the turn. Did a real nice move on the turn getting to 5th then flatten and eventually faded to 10th. Chad worried on camera before the race that the 10 furlongs would be tough, he was right. Wasted money.
18. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 30/1 – Had a big effort in the Ark Derby tracking Caddo River and Concert Tour and then mowing them down in the stretch. But he started from the 1 hole that race so he benefited from the shortest trip possible. Now way outside he’ll be giving away multiple lengths in ground loss if he tries to track near the lead again. His two posts outside of #7 did not go well, so I’ll be passing here. Worked hard to get into the 1st turn in 7th but came out of it in 9th. His 2nd turn move was 5 wide and doomed to fail.
19. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) 30/1 – Not as quick early as Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon or Rock Your World, so he’s going to be hard-pressed to get a good position heading into the far turn without a lot of exertion and will like get caught wide. That will probably cost him on the far turn, would expect him to tire a bit like in his FL Derby run. He managed to hold on there to second but it’s a lot harder to do that in a 20 horse field going the extra ¼ mile. Will be passing on him. Busted his butt to get into 2nd on the 1st turn, but that only left him enough gas to go 6 furlongs and was eased.
20. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) 30/1 – Shocking winner of the Wood laid back and made one run late. Has very little early speed so that will be his formula here. Look for him to make a hard left turn out of the gate, head to the far turn as one of the last 3, and try to make a big run the last ½ mile. Will need a furious pace to develop to pull it off, doubt it occurs, but can see him clunking up for 3rd or 4th at a nice price. Did his left turn, started 18th, saved ground, but when the pace was average he couldn't do much except pass and handful of tired horses.
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