CFL Syndicate 2025

Home Favorites that score 28 or less are 98-337-5 (22.5%) ATS

I randomly selected 28

Less than 35 it is
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208-447-8 (31.8%)
​
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According to my double check there are a lot of results here and no missing data. I’m doing my best to confirm my data as some of the results don’t execute properly. In this case with so many results we are accurate.


The CFL is about scoring and offensives possessions and keeping the ball. That’s what good teams do. Bc out rushed and held the ball longer 5 minutes longer than the Elks last week. Winnipeg has to flip that this week on them.
 
Hulu said:
.5*/.5* BC Lions -2.5/ML -110/-140
I am taking a flyer here that the Bombers defence will have taken a half step back from last year and will struggle to keep Rourke and co in check. With BC's offence in full flight, Winnipeg's offence simply won't be able to keep up with Streveler at the helm.

1* Montreal ML -105
I didn't like what I saw from Ottawa last week and although they will likely get better, Dru Brown may be playing hurt and this Montreal defence will feast on Ottawa's banged up OL.
Click to expand...
Nathan Rourke has the opportunity to make a fan for life this game
 
spottie2935 said:
Home Favorites that score 28 or less are 98-337-5 (22.5%) ATS

I randomly selected 28

Less than 35 it is


[td]
208-447-8 (31.8%)

[/td]​


According to my double check there are a lot of results here and no missing data. I’m doing my best to confirm my data as some of the results don’t execute properly. In this case with so many results we are accurate.


The CFL is about scoring and offensives possessions and keeping the ball. That’s what good teams do. Bc out rushed and held the ball longer 5 minutes longer than the Elks last week. Winnipeg has to flip that this week on them.
Click to expand...

So a home fav has to score over 28 or they have just a 1 in 5 chance of covering? If they score under 35 it only becomes a 1 in 3 chance? I know the CFL is a higher scoring league than the NFL but that just seems incredible unless I am reading it wrong.

Can you post the query that gave these results? Not trying to call you out here but trying to understand how that could be possible. It just doesn't add up in my head.
 
I think you’re looking at the top of 28 points. It’s not the majority of these claims.

The majority of the <28 point claims is 20 to 26 points and the most failures are the higher lines. So not all lines are congruent and not all point outputs are equal.

It is factual but the lines and points under 20 are the big difference makers in the data and ROI

If a line is -4 or greater from -1 to -4.5 it’s 17-14 ats for the home favorite. With a standard of at least 20 points but not as many as 28
 
The 35 point data is telling because the ROI decreases the % from as you said 5-1 to 3-1

It’s the big lines and under 20 point games that influence the profitability massively.

It still averages 1.25 times a week and point wise Toronto is a possible candidate. Line wise not as influential here because obviously -1.5 is more like a 40% outcome not 20% or 25% chance.


Only 46 games since 2006 has the line been -1 or -1.5 and the home favorite output been under 28 points 46 times.

The favorite has been 15-29-2 ats and 17-29 SU “lifetime”

6-8-1 ats and 7-8 straight up since 2018. They also made rule changes to create more offense and more scoring. some or all of the data could be obsolete.

I still believe that Toronto is a fade here but the data I have explained just made more balance.

The best ROI for Toronto is to score 20 +

If they don’t it’s a terrible chance and extremely low ROI chance. That’s really my point I just didn’t explain it in more detail.

Now I’m being more thoughtful and fair.

That being said it depends on the opponent and the data is still saying even 27 points and a line -1 to -3 isn’t profitable unless the Stamos are inefficient, which Is my point. Toronto’s ability to score snd Calgarys ability to keep pace and get and keep a lead
 
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With a line greater, than -4, line closer to 0, and the favor scores 28 to 35 points is 21-14 ats for the favorite.

This is mostly in-game thinking. It unpredictable pregame info. It’s the CFL
 
Recapping my already-posted plays for week 2. Good luck to all!

.5*/.5* BC Lions -2.5/ML -110/-140
1* Montreal ML -105
.75*/.25* Hamilton +3.5 / ML -114 / +156
.5*/.5* Toronto -1.5/ML -109/-128

Not a fan of having a side bet on every game this week but if there is a time in the season to do that, its in weeks 1-3 IMO. And I've got a better number than current market on 3 of the 4 so I can't complain about that.
 
Montreal with a couple of late scratches this week. LT Nick Callender is out and will be replaced by a rookie LT. Normally thats a concern but I am still convinced the ALs will dominate this game.

WR Charles Rambo will also miss for personal reasons but again, they have enough receiving talent on this roster to paper over that hole pretty easily.

Ottawa will have a rookie starting at safety with both Addae and Howell being out. Add that to the other 2 rookies in the secondary and Davis Alexander should have a field day tomorrow.
 
2 hours until kick and BC has reached -4.5 at some shops. That's a bit silly and I wouldn't bet them at that number. IMO the value shifts to WPG somewhere around 4.

Wouldn't surprise me to see this keep on climbing because BC is a public darling right now. I don't like being on the square side but hey, the public wins sometimes too.
 
spottie2935 said:
I was living in Vegas before all the app and phone betting and yet I was still betting online. It was right before Pinny banished USA customers. I bet one football MGM parlay card a week 11 teamer wins 140k. One week I missed one game because I didn’t stick to my guns. I let something penetrate my decision. The punt return TD killed me.

Another time I did all the homework in CBB conference tourney’s and early rounds 64 tourney betting. Cashout 20gs some placed didn’t blink an eye. Station casinos were documenting me and profiling me. Surveillance photos and all.

I worked at the Wynn Encore and I would listen to customers talk. Some big sports betters were denied because they didn’t have casino betting history. These casinos don’t mind losing in the sports book if you take in the money and have a losing history playing back all the money in the casino. Player only bets sports? If not stealthy one will be limited. William hill is famous for that.


South point was also a famous book for locals. Most books were shut down over nigh to do the accounting. However they did it early and Saturday night/ Sunday morning would open at 4 am instead of 6 or 7 am They cornered the market on night/swing shift workers wanting to get all their NFL parlays in. Otherwise if they didn’t bet before Sunday they would have to wait 2 or 3 hours to get their action. 7 am opening windows also had 30 minutes wait times standing in lines unless one got their early to get a better position in line.

I used Suncoast, South Point, Silverton, M Redort and Tuscany. Then like I said Friday night was a stop in to the Luxor for my 11 teamer. All these different hotels I listed had different corporations ownership.

The problem with Vegas back in the day was time, missing lines driving to the books and gas money. I could get at Wynn if I wanted but not a good idea if I won of a problem with a game of ticket occurred. Didn’t want that mess.

I have several casino stories from there as well being a decent enough dice dealer came with adversity and good and bad memories.


Much like the Phil Ivey Baccarat scam they let big players adjust the rules a little bit as long as the bottom line was for deposit only. If the big player won the management job was to review the tape to make sure every card and every chip and all the hand were played exactly by the procedures. We signed documents when we hired on.

My biggest tip, 50k. and of course it’s split thru all dealers 24 hour period split.

The Wynn collected tips on a typical Saturday night North of 150 k. 300 to 450 each. That was in the poker boom 2006 to before the housing crash. That’s when I moved over to Encore for the opening.

Delt face to face with so many ex and current athletes, coaches, movie stars, musicians. John Tutor of Tutor Perini corp was pretty big time. He bet 17k on the 5,8 and 24k on the 6,8 depending on the point. Remember back in the day the post season awards being at the Wynn Theater. I didn’t get to see many but a few of the guys were around.

I still have friends dealing there and I’m sure I could get a part time gig there if a spot opened up. Part of the Problem with Vegas it is California's little brother and they buy up what the casino workers can’t afford. A lot of celebrities have residences there because no state tax. Dealing in Vegas isn’t easy to get a good paying job. It’s still who you know and getting your foot in the door with the mgrs that do the hiring.




Fun times.
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Killer read here.
 
Pregame I wanted this game to make a statement that WPG is once again dominant. Now let’s see the lines next week. BC on the road is that an issue?. The Lions did have a few injuries on defense. Winnipeg opening night at home. Last week BC opened against the Elks and BC was home. BCs offense is still legit with over 400 yards I hope Rourke is okay.

Early week after a late game, injuries, game at WPG. Tough game for BC but they are Elite.
 
spottie2935 said:
Pregame I wanted this game to make a statement that WPG is once again dominant. Now let’s see the lines next week. BC on the road is that an issue?. The Lions did have a few injuries on defense. Winnipeg opening night at home. Last week BC opened against the Elks and BC was home. BCs offense is still legit with over 400 yards I hope Rourke is okay.

Early week after a late game, injuries, game at WPG. Tough game for BC but they are Elite.
Click to expand...
You called it my friend. I was convinced Winnipeg's defence had taken a step back this year but they sure didn't show it last night. The line was in the backfield all night. The secondary had tight coverage and Rourke was forced to throw into tight windows under duress constantly. He completed <50% of his passes.

I should have learned from my mistakes. For about 3 years I cost myself money thinking the Patriots were going to fade but until Brady left they just didn't. It was a fools errand to try and predict their demise. Same situation here. Winnipeg is still the class of the west.
 
A home non-divisional dog before week 4.....24-12 ATS, including 14-6 ATS for Eastern Division teams,....this moves to 14-1 ATS if the Eastern Division home dog scores at least 20 points in the game........plays is ON Hamilton
 
2-0 week 1
Post number #250 has the week 2 pregame plays

WPG +.3.5 W
Bc/WPG Under48.5 L
Montreal -1.5 W
Montreal -4.5 W
Over 45.5 under 46 wash should have stuck with my over

2-1 so far 4-1 overall Ticats remaining.

Ticats+3.5
Stamps +113
Argos -110
 
Hulu said:
I should add that although nothing is official, according to reports out of practice Arbuckle has been taking first team reps with Horn leading the second team. Kelly is present and in pads but not throwing or running.

I think there's an 80% chance its Arbuckle starting and that's ok.
Click to expand...
I’m leaning under but not locked in yet. I will say one of these halves should under.

The first 2 games had defensive issues. Montreal exploited Ottawa's . With Toronto and Calgary is going to need 27and 24
I have to keep digging here
 
Hulu said:
You called it my friend. I was convinced Winnipeg's defence had taken a step back this year but they sure didn't show it last night. The line was in the backfield all night. The secondary had tight coverage and Rourke was forced to throw into tight windows under duress constantly. He completed <50% of his passes.

I should have learned from my mistakes. For about 3 years I cost myself money thinking the Patriots were going to fade but until Brady left they just didn't. It was a fools errand to try and predict their demise. Same situation here. Winnipeg is still the class of the west.
Click to expand...
Thanks Hulu I don’t feel easy and balanced against you. If I post something that isn’t congruent with your bet or thoughts ignore it! it’s my mind trying to settle in with me. Usually because we are against each other. I’ll try to avoid sharing as I don’t want to disturb. I should let you do your thing. If I really have an issue I’ll find a way to make my point in the best way I can. I’m just trying to find that best way.

No matter how or what I post it’s meant to share inform and explain. No hatred in me whatsoever. There is too much already going on and you’re a big help and respected by me and the forum. We all appreciate your love time and efforts. I sound mushy and all that but we all need a little bit in life and less toxicity.

Any thoughts on Argos under?
 
Next week line I only see 1 game listed

Sask +1.5
@Argos

How can Argos be favored next week? They have to win or stay close tonight.

Sask has to lose or escape with a tight game.

Otherwise next weeks line won’t make as sense. I post this to see what takes place. Not a prediction until we see these results.
 
The other lines and week 3 games are gone because one of the teams involved have played. So the scores and data in week 3 are transparent. They will evaluate and reopen the lines based upon week 2 scores,
 
spottie2935 said:
Thanks Hulu I don’t feel easy and balanced against you. If I post something that isn’t congruent with your bet or thoughts ignore it! it’s my mind trying to settle in with me. Usually because we are against each other. I’ll try to avoid sharing as I don’t want to disturb. I should let you do your thing. If I really have an issue I’ll find a way to make my point in the best way I can. I’m just trying to find that best way.

No matter how or what I post it’s meant to share inform and explain. No hatred in me whatsoever. There is too much already going on and you’re a big help and respected by me and the forum. We all appreciate your love time and efforts. I sound mushy and all that but we all need a little bit in life and less toxicity.

Any thoughts on Argos under?
Click to expand...
No worries my friend. I've always appreciated your contributions over the years. As Jack McCoy used to say on Law & Order, reasonable people can disagree and there's nothing wrong with that. The reason I call this thread 'CFL Syndicate' instead of 'Hulu's CFL' is because I want this to be a place where discussion is fostered and people are free to play devil's advocate. Not only do I not mind when people contradict my opinions, I like it because it causes me to pause and think.

Iron sharpens iron.

As for the total in Toronto I made it 51 at the beginning of the week but I have very low confidence in that number. Mostly because I really don't know what Calgary's defence is yet. Conventional wisdom says that with the incredibly short CFL training camp and preseason, you can't just replace 11/12 starters and expect to look good right away. But they were made to look decent and pretty solid vs Hamilton in week 1. Having said that, I think that game had more to do with Hamilton's offence sputtering. If Bo Levi Mitchell had completed 3 or 4 of the passes that he sailed over open receivers heads, that game could have turned out much differently.

On the Toronto side, Arbuckle looked absolutely helpless in week 1. But I think its obvious now that Montreal's defence is league best by a long stretch. Montreal also came into that game with a huge chip on their shoulders. Don't forget their B2B Grey Cup mission was derailed in the east final at home LY and they looked like a team that had been waiting months for revenge. I think vs a team with a more middling or even below avg defence like Calgary has, he and the Argo offence will look much better.

So the short answer is I think the Argos are the side today but I cannot even formulate a lean on the total. Weather looks absolutely perfect for football so no concerns there either.
 
Okay so just so you know BC still remains the worst CFL covering teasers again that’s good news in my opinion for a reversal when they are not the weeks darling team. I’ll won’t say value on them if they look like the best of the week.

I’m looking to take BC if not popular avoid or take Montreal as they seem like the best.

The problem for Montreal is the quarterbacks they faced. This is or might be a line problem

Also Montreal was an opening dog or pickem.? So yea hard to fade the
Best looking team but it’s fishy.


Looking to Fade Winnipeg if the line is proper.

I’m just making some notes.
 
Under because Calgary D settle down here. This weeks overs not even close. If Calgary is of any use this season they have to stabilize Toronto but as far as the side I’m lost
 
Roughriders 4-18-1 record (no points) on the road when not playing the Elks that’s no spread no line nothing. I’ll photo it

I added a small circle around the != the exclamation and equals mean NOT equal to

the Riders opponent team is not the Elks
 

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spottie2935 said:
Ticats seem like a better plan than I thought we’ll see soon enough
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In those rare weeks where I have a bet in every game I like to look at my card and think, if I had a gun to my head and had to eliminate 1 play, which one would it be?

This week it would be the Cats. I mean I still like the play but the one niggling thing about it is I watched Bo Levi Mitchell overthrow receivers time and again in preseason and then he was doing it again in week 1. He's a better QB than that and he's coming off a career year stats-wise, so I think he settles down but it does scare me a little. When they do get it together, make no mistake, this is the best offence, at least on paper, in the league. The receiving corps is outstanding. Having Kenny Lawler, Tim White, Shemar Bridges on the field at once could give opposing defences fits is the QB could just get the ball there. Drew Wolitarsky, a regular starter years in Winnipeg, can't even crack the starting lineup. This team should be putting up 30+ points every game. As bad as they looked last week they almost did and I think in the second half they showed signs of coming to life (although Calgary, with a big lead was playing a softer defence to be sure) and I am hoping that continues tonight.

OTOH, I'm not sure that Sask's defence is the one for a QB to 'get right' against. All week it was looking like they would be without last year's DPOY runner-up Rolan Miligan but he's listed on the depth chart as starting. They will be without CJ Avery who is also a key piece of their defence and replacing him with a nat LB. On the other side, WR Kian Schaffer-Baker (KSB) is out. They will move Mitch Picton to the outside and Dhel Duncan-Busby will come in at slotback. That is a fairly significant downgrade. They are starting 9 nats so no ratio issues. A lot of teams are doing this nowadays which is making ratio issues less prominent in my capping.

Alright, I'm rambling. This is good weed.

All I know is I'm happy for one of those rare occassions when I can sit and cheer full-throated for my team without cheering against my bets in the process. No internal conflict tonight.
 
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Great breakdown appreciate any and all rambles. I do believe Sask is overrated and the line squeezing closer to zero might be a clue.
 
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